Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Forex QUICK: USDJPY moves higher on political turmoil
• Forex QUICK: EURUSD consolidates in holiday trade. Tests support
• NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Forex QUICK: USDCAD prepares for BOC rate rise
• Canada GDP better than expected at 6.1%
• Canada RMPI and IPPI is due at 8:30 as well
• Canada GDP due out at 8:30 today
• ECB’s Weber
• Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate y/y
• ECB Counsil Memebr Mario Draghi Speeks in Rome
• Eurozone M3 Money Supply falls 0.1% on year ago
• Trichet Speaks
• Nowotny speaks in Vienna
• Japan Housing Starts
• Shirakawa on the wires..

Forex QUICK: USDJPY moves higher on political turmoil Posted: 31 May 2010 07:18 AM PDT

Forex QUICK: EURUSD consolidates in holiday trade. Tests support Posted: 31 May 2010 06:56 AM PDT

NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 31 May 2010 06:31 AM PDT

Forex QUICK: USDCAD prepares for BOC rate rise Posted: 31 May 2010 05:56 AM PDT

Canada GDP better than expected at 6.1% Posted: 31 May 2010 05:33 AM PDT MoM for March also came in better at +0.6%. The BOC is expected to reaise rates tomorrow. This should insure the liklihood of a rise.  The USDCAD has come under some pressure as a result. The price is below the 200 day MA now at the 1.0476 level now. A close below this level should be bearish for the pair.  Longer term, support comes in at the 100 day MA at the 1.0326 level currently. The Industrial Product and Raw Material Prices were also higher than expected.  The IPP index rose by 0.3%. A decline of -0.2% was expected.  The RMP Index meanwhile soared by 1.7% vs expectations of 1.4% gain.  These figures also point for the BOC to start the tightening process.

Canada RMPI and IPPI is due at 8:30 as well Posted: 31 May 2010 05:01 AM PDT

Canada GDP due out at 8:30 today Posted: 31 May 2010 04:54 AM PDT

ECB’s Weber Posted: 31 May 2010 02:07 AM PDT Bundesbank President and ECB member Axel Weber made the following comments: Financial markets are still fragile, alertness is warranted. Market tensions haven’t hurt the real economy yet. Financial crisis is not yet over. Spanish, Portuguese, and Greek fiscal efforts are only the start. Must strengthen incentive to have solid finances. The euro area should examine orderly insolvency mechanism. Still critical of ECB bond purchases. ECB bond purchases should be a “bridging” measure. The euro area mustn’t become a transfer union.

Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate y/y Posted: 31 May 2010 02:01 AM PDT The market had a muted reaction to the Eurozone CPI flash estimate which came in at 1.6%; in line with its forecast and slighty better than the prior reading of 1.5%. The EUR is currently trading at the 1.2300 figure against the USD.

ECB Counsil Memebr Mario Draghi Speeks in Rome Posted: 31 May 2010 01:35 AM PDT ECB rate policy has been “strongly expansionary”. ECB must stop bond buys “as quickly as possible”. Euro are budget adjustments need to be rapid. EU-IMF lending mechanism must be made operational. EU needs stronger stability pact and sanctions. Euro area has “sounder” budgets and trade balances. EU needs more political and budgetary unity. Attacks on Euro aimed at “weakest members”. Italian deficit cuts “had to be taken”. Effectiveness of spending cuts must be monitored. “certain” G-20 bid for global rules will succeed. The decline in Italian bank lending is slowing.

Eurozone M3 Money Supply falls 0.1% on year ago Posted: 31 May 2010 01:03 AM PDT Eurozone M3 Money Supply came in at -0.1%, slightly stronger than the -0.2% expected and inline with its prior reading. Eurozone M3 averaged a fall of 0.2% in 3 months through April. Eur/Usd trades at 1.2310 in very quiet trading.

Trichet Speaks Posted: 31 May 2010 01:02 AM PDT Speaking in Vienna, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet made the following statements: ECB is “fully independent”. ECB “sticks” to principles of strict treaty. Bond purchases ensure a proper policy transmission. ECB expects “strict respect” for budget discipline. Gov’t bond market is “central” to policy transmission. Bond purchases aren’t quantitative easing. Purchases focus on markets affected by disruptions. Spreads widened early may be beyond  a reasonable level. Inflation expectations remain well anchored. ECB is not breaching a rule on monetary financing. Exceptional intervention was necessary. Calls on governments to work together on surveillance. “We are not printing money”. Governments must ensure fiscal sustainability. ECB is “permanently alert, always prepared to act”. ECB won’t tolerate budget indiscipline any longer.

Nowotny speaks in Vienna Posted: 31 May 2010 12:21 AM PDT ECB’s Nowotny speaks in Vienna; * Central banks can’t solve solvency crisi * Greece shows that crisis is far from over * European public finances face significant challenges * Central banks can’t prevent speculative bubbles * Ecb is “fiercely independent” and is “inflexibly attached” to price stability

Japan Housing Starts Posted: 30 May 2010 10:05 PM PDT Japan Housing Starts y/y came in at 0.6%, weaker than the 6.6% expected, but stronger than the prior reading of -2.4%. This is a seemingly poor number for the Jpy. The JPY has been methodically trading weaker against the majors during the session as Usd/Jpy trades at its high of 91.52, Eur/Jpy just off its high at 112.68, and Gbp/jpy also just off its high at 132.45.

Shirakawa on the wires.. Posted: 30 May 2010 09:42 PM PDT The following are remarks made during a speech in Tokyo: Greece could be a threat if the situation worsens. Japan is making progress toward sustainable growth. Mindful of upside and downside risks. Japan’s economy is in a mild recovery led by exports. BOJ will maintain an extremely accommodative policy. Governments need to maintain fiscal trust. Raising potential growth rate is key for Japan. European turmoil was a wake up call for governments. Lending program shouldn’t interfere with the BOJ. We must not pay too much attention to short term prices. Bigger balance sheet won’t solve deflation.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Long weekend - Greg Michalowski Returns Monday
• FXDD Webinar Tuesday June 1 2010 - Register Now
• FOREX QUICK: USING FIBONACCI TOOLS
• Italy’s Top Union Chief on the Newswires
• Fitch Downgrades Spain
• Forex Midday Report - May 28
• XAU/USD coming under pressure. Testing 100MA
• ECB’s Weber on the Newswires

Long weekend - Greg Michalowski Returns Monday Posted: 28 May 2010 02:29 PM PDT Have a safe and relaxing long weekend. Greg Michalowski will be back Monday to start the trading week off right. Take Care! Shawn Powell

FXDD Webinar Tuesday June 1 2010 - Register Now Posted: 28 May 2010 02:28 PM PDT FXDD Webinar Tuesday June 1 2010 4PM NYT - Register Now

FOREX QUICK: USING FIBONACCI TOOLS Posted: 28 May 2010 11:30 AM PDT FOREX QUICK: USING FIBONACCI TOOLS

Italy’s Top Union Chief on the Newswires Posted: 28 May 2010 09:50 AM PDT Italy’s top union chief making June 25 the date for the national strike against the budget.

Fitch Downgrades Spain Posted: 28 May 2010 09:39 AM PDT Fitch downgrades Spain to ‘AA+’  from ‘AAA’ Outlook Stable “Fitch says Spain’s economic process will be more difficult and prolonged than for other AAA rated sovereigns” Fitch sees spain government debt likely reaching 78% GDP by 2013 Fitch: Spain Adjustment to cut growth rate over medium-term. Euro trading lower on the news.

Forex Midday Report - May 28 Posted: 28 May 2010 09:15 AM PDT Forex Midday Report - May 28

XAU/USD coming under pressure. Testing 100MA Posted: 28 May 2010 08:09 AM PDT The XAU/USD pair is currently coming under pressure and can be seen testing the 100MA (blue line) at 1204.90. The pair has come off the highs for the week at 1218.28 and will need to break the 100 and 200 MA’s to signal a move towards the 38.2% retracement level at 1198.33. Below this the 50% level can be seen at 1192.17. Topside resistance will be met at 1214.60 (trendline), 1218.28 and then longer term at 1226.16. Of course this is if the pair bounces, but anything is possible as traders start to square out of gold for the long weekend.

ECB’s Weber on the Newswires Posted: 28 May 2010 08:08 AM PDT says banning risky financial transactions is ‘radical’ says bank tax would be ‘inferior instrument’ says Basel II reform preferable to banning transactions

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• FOREX QUICK: USD/JPY Testing the 200 Day MA
• Chicago Purchasing Manager Weaker as Confidence is a Tad Higher
• FOREX QUICK: AUD/USD Quietly trending higher
• Chicago Purchasing Manager at 9:45am & University of Michigan Confidence at 9:55am
• FOREX QUICK: EUR/CHF Three is a crowd on Friday
• Personal Income Stays Unchanged as Personal Spending Goes Down
• Forex Morning Report- May 28th
• US Personal Income & Personal Spending Data Due at 8:30am
• 5-28 Economic Calendar
• Rebroadcast of Thursday May 27th Webinar
• Japanese Retail Sales y/y
• Japanese Unemployment Rate
• UK GfK Consumer Confidence
• Gold testing trend line support
• New Zealand Building Consents

FOREX QUICK: USD/JPY Testing the 200 Day MA Posted: 28 May 2010 07:00 AM PDT FOREX QUICK: USD/JPY Testing the 200 Day MA

Chicago Purchasing Manager Weaker as Confidence is a Tad Higher Posted: 28 May 2010 06:58 AM PDT Chicago Purchasing Manager:                    Survey: 61.0         Actual: 59.7       Prior: 63.8         University of Michigan Confidence:        Survey:  73.3         Actual: 73.6         Prior: 73.3         USD/JPY trading lower on the news as well as EUR/USD also trading lower on the news.

FOREX QUICK: AUD/USD Quietly trending higher Posted: 28 May 2010 06:31 AM PDT FOREX QUICK: AUD/USD Quietly trending higher

Chicago Purchasing Manager at 9:45am & University of Michigan Confidence at 9:55am Posted: 28 May 2010 06:30 AM PDT

FOREX QUICK: EUR/CHF Three is a crowd on Friday Posted: 28 May 2010 06:09 AM PDT FOREX QUICK: EUR/CHF Three is a crowd on Friday

Personal Income Stays Unchanged as Personal Spending Goes Down Posted: 28 May 2010 05:33 AM PDT Personal Income:           Survey: 0.4%         Actual: 0.4%        Prior: 0.3%         Revised: 0.5% Personal Spending:        Survey: 0.3%         Actual: .0%         Prior: 0.6%         Euro trading lower on the news.

Forex Morning Report- May 28th Posted: 28 May 2010 05:30 AM PDT Forex Morning Report- May 28th

US Personal Income & Personal Spending Data Due at 8:30am Posted: 28 May 2010 05:03 AM PDT

5-28 Economic Calendar Posted: 27 May 2010 09:31 PM PDT

Rebroadcast of Thursday May 27th Webinar Posted: 27 May 2010 05:38 PM PDT Watch the rebroadcast of Thursday May 27th’s Forex Webinar >>Here

Japanese Retail Sales y/y Posted: 27 May 2010 04:57 PM PDT The market had a muted reaction to better than expected reatail sales out of Japan which came in at 4.9% versus a forecast of 3.7% and prior reading of 4.7%. The JPY is currently trading at the 91.00 figure against the USD.

Japanese Unemployment Rate Posted: 27 May 2010 04:34 PM PDT The jobless rate in Japan for the month of April was 5.1%; slightly worse than the forecast and prior reading of 5.0%. The following data was also released: Overall household spending - Survey: 2.5%   Actual: -0.7%   Prior: 4.4% Job to Applicant Ratio - Survey: 0.50   Actual: 0.48   Prior: 0.49 National CPI (y/y) - Survey: -1.1%   Actual: -1.2%   Prior: -1.1% The market was relatively unchanged by this release.

UK GfK Consumer Confidence Posted: 27 May 2010 04:24 PM PDT The UK GfK consumer confidence number for April did not meet its forecast and was worse than the prior month’s reading causing the GBP to trade slightly lower against all of the major currencies. The reading was -18 versus -16 and a survey of -15. The GBP is trading off session lows against the USD.

Gold testing trend line support Posted: 27 May 2010 04:21 PM PDT From May 18th to May 20th Gold traded over $50 lower, but as you can see from the chart the pair reversed the trend on the 20th and has traded continually higher and is close to retracing 100% of the prior move. The pair has been trading sideways the past 24 hours, but is testing the trend line for the fifth time. If the trend holds, the target would be the 100.0% fibo line at 1220.20. It should also be noted that the 100 hour moving average is following the upward trend and is now converging with the 200 hour at 1200.91.

New Zealand Building Consents Posted: 27 May 2010 03:48 PM PDT The market had a limited reaction New Zealand’s building consents which came in at 8.5%; better than the prior reading of -0.4%. The kiwi is currently trading on session lows against the USD.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Greg Michalowski on FXstreet Webinar today at 10am NYT
• Forex Morning Report- May 27th
• Jobless Claims Improve with Continuing Claims, GDP is Weaker
• US Economic Data due at 830am
• CBI Realized Sales
• Eur/Jpy stalls, finds support at 110.80-85
• Eur/Jpy to test 100 hour M/A
• Gold may break out
• 5-27 Economic Calendar
• Aussie Capital Expenditures q/q
• Japanese Trade Balance
• Ex- Bundesbank President Schlesinger Says Euro “Not in Danger”
• Australia’s Henry on the wires….
• Fed’s Lacker Comments…
• New Zealand April Trade Balance

Greg Michalowski on FXstreet Webinar today at 10am NYT Posted: 27 May 2010 06:35 AM PDT Greg Michalowski will be teaching a webinar today on FXstreet at 10am NYT/ 14:00 GMT Here is a link to the sign up page.

Forex Morning Report- May 27th Posted: 27 May 2010 05:40 AM PDT Forex Morning Report- May 27th

Jobless Claims Improve with Continuing Claims, GDP is Weaker Posted: 27 May 2010 05:34 AM PDT GDP (QoQ) (Annualized):    Survey: 3.4%     Actual: 3.0%    Prior: 3.2%        Personal Consumption:     Survey: 3.8%     Actual: 3.5%     Prior: 3.6%     GDP Price Index:      Survey: 0.9%     Actual: 1.0%    Prior: 0.9%     Core PCE (QoQ):     Survey: 0.6%     Actual: 0.6%    Prior: 0.6%     Initial Jobless Claims:      Survey: 455K     Actual: 460K    Prior: 471K     Revised: 474K Continuing Claims:     Survey: 4613K     Actual: 4607K    Prior: 4625K     Revised: 4656K

US Economic Data due at 830am Posted: 27 May 2010 05:04 AM PDT

CBI Realized Sales Posted: 27 May 2010 03:07 AM PDT CBI Realized Sales came in at -18, much weaker than the 13 exepected and prior reading of 13. Not much reaction for Gbp/Usd as the pair is just off its highs at 1.4565.

Eur/Jpy stalls, finds support at 110.80-85 Posted: 27 May 2010 01:09 AM PDT As stated in an earlier post Eur/Jpy was going to have difficulty breaking above its 100 hour M/A. It has now fallen to 110.80-85 level where the pair has run into support, as expected. If the pair holds a move to 111.20-25 coinciding with a trendline of old highs is likely. A break below should bring Eur/Jpy to 110.20-30.

Eur/Jpy to test 100 hour M/A Posted: 27 May 2010 12:08 AM PDT Eur/Jpy has been well bid the last few hours. The pair is on the verge of testing its 100 hour M/A (111.38). I plotted a trendline of recent hourly highs which indicates the pair should have a hard time breaking through. A failed break may bring Eur/Jpy to the 11.980-85 level. A break above should bring the pair back to old high of 112.02.

Gold may break out Posted: 26 May 2010 10:17 PM PDT Gold is poised to break out of the 1207.00-1217.00 range we have seen in recent trading as it tests the 61.8% fibo (1165.82 low - 1249.28 high) again. A break above may bring us to 1230.00. If Xau/Usd holds we will be looking at more of the same range trading with 1207.00 support.

5-27 Economic Calendar Posted: 26 May 2010 08:53 PM PDT

Aussie Capital Expenditures q/q Posted: 26 May 2010 06:32 PM PDT The AUD sold off after Australian capital expenditures for April came in worse than expected at -0.2% versus the forecast of 2.1% and prior reading of 5.5%.

Japanese Trade Balance Posted: 26 May 2010 04:55 PM PDT The market had a muted reaction to Japan’s trade balance which came in slightly better than expected at 0.73T; forecast was 0.69T and the prior reading of 0.77T

Ex- Bundesbank President Schlesinger Says Euro “Not in Danger” Posted: 26 May 2010 04:42 PM PDT Also is his telephone interview Mr. Schlesinger said that he believes that the Euro isn’t at a “catastrophically low” level and that the slide in it’s value is “perhaps contained”. Additionally, he urges the ECB to keep bond purchases to a minimum.

Australia’s Henry on the wires…. Posted: 26 May 2010 04:38 PM PDT Testifying in Canberra, Australian Treasury Secretary Ken Henry made these comments: Economy performed better than expected. Hopes Australian gov’t uses tax review as basis for reform. Pension levy increase is likely to come out of wages. Lower mining tax would reduce revenue. Resource tax is not tied to company tax cuts. Swan’s figures on royalties are correct. Mining industry gets significant tax concessions. Not concerned about foreign investment in mining. The mining industry didn’t save Australia from recession. Company tax cuts support growth, investment, and wages. Still expects budget surplus as forecasted.

Fed’s Lacker Comments… Posted: 26 May 2010 04:31 PM PDT Speaking to reporters after a speech in Washington, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker made these statements: Economy has new “risks in outlook”. Sees low inflation for “the next couple of months”. Backs normalizing balance sheet sooner rather than later. Fed “should try to avoid sparking another housing boom”. A financial overhaul fails to curb the safety net. “We need to draw the line somewhere” on the safety net. The political appointment of N.Y. Fed chief would be a mistake.

New Zealand April Trade Balance Posted: 26 May 2010 03:46 PM PDT The NZD traded slightly higher after a better than expected kiwi trade balance number for April. The details are as follows: Trade Balance - Survey: 455M   Actual: 656M   Prior: 567M Imports - Survey: 3.34B   Actual: 3.31B   Prior: 3.49B Exports - Survey: 3.88B   Actual: 3.97B   Prior: 4.06B Trade Balance 12 mth YTD - Survey: -60.0   Actual: 161.0   Prior: -194.0

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• FOREX QUICK: USD/JPY Moving higher off of strong US release
• US Home Sales Data Better
• US New Home Sales Data at 10am
• FOREX QUICK: XAU/USD Slows at the 1214.83 level
• US Treasury Secretary Geithner on the Newswires
• Forex Morning Report- May 26th
• FOREX QUICK: GBP/USD setting up for three is a crowd rule
• US Durable Goods Data Much Higher Than Expected
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-May.26.2010
• British Bankers Association Mortgage Approvals
• Aussie flirts with 100 hour M/A
• GfK German Consumer Climate
• Gold runs into 200 hour M/A
• Rebroadcast of Tuesday’s Forex training
• 5-26 Economic Calendar

FOREX QUICK: USD/JPY Moving higher off of strong US release Posted: 26 May 2010 07:09 AM PDT FOREX QUICK: USD/JPY Moving higher off of strong US release

US Home Sales Data Better Posted: 26 May 2010 07:03 AM PDT US new home sales data much higher as it comes in at 504K vs the prior figure of 411K. New home sales (MoM) also comes in much higher at 14.8 vs the survey of 3.4%. Euro trading slightly lower on the news.

US New Home Sales Data at 10am Posted: 26 May 2010 06:37 AM PDT

FOREX QUICK: XAU/USD Slows at the 1214.83 level Posted: 26 May 2010 06:35 AM PDT FOREX QUICK: XAU/USD Slows at the 1214.83 level

US Treasury Secretary Geithner on the Newswires Posted: 26 May 2010 06:19 AM PDT says EU to do “whats necessary” to ensure stability U.S. commits to affirming ties with the new U.K. government says Greece should implement their commitments governments need to act ‘quickly and with force’ in crisis says ‘markets want to see action’ says G-20 to reinforce plans to prevent crisis need ‘carefully designed,’ coordinated reform U.K’s Osborne laid out ’strong, compelling’ plans

Forex Morning Report- May 26th Posted: 26 May 2010 06:00 AM PDT Forex Morning Report- May 26th

FOREX QUICK: GBP/USD setting up for three is a crowd rule Posted: 26 May 2010 05:42 AM PDT FOREX QUICK: GBP/USD setting up for three is a crowd rule.

US Durable Goods Data Much Higher Than Expected Posted: 26 May 2010 05:33 AM PDT This is the highest level that durable goods has reached since January, Market stays calm with the news.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-May.26.2010 Posted: 26 May 2010 04:14 AM PDT Good Morning: The euro continues to trade under pressure as speculation rises that the  the Euro Zone’s debt problems will derail economic growth within the region.  The single surrency weakened as data from Germany showed consumer confidence in the Euro Zone’s largest economy fell, and consumer spending in France  saw a decline.    Italy’s government approved 26 billion euros worth of budget cuts, as they also struggle to control their deficit. Markets are also keeping an eye on the political tensions rising on the Korean peninsula. World equity markets along with commodities rallied overnight as investors looked to seek opportunities after the downward trends of the past few weeks.   U.S Futures are also higher at this time. Oil:$70.74                                                        Gold:$1213.50          Today’s Data   8:30A.M. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS APRIL 1.40% -1.30% -1.20% 8:30A.M. DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION APRIL 0.50% 2.80% 3.70% 10:00A.M. NEW HOME SALES  APRIL 425K 411K   .   Have a GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

British Bankers Association Mortgage Approvals Posted: 26 May 2010 02:22 AM PDT BBA Mortgage Approvals came in at 35,700, weaker than the 37,600 expected but a slight improvement ove rthe 35,000 prior reading. Gbp/Usd relatively unchanged after release trading either side of 1.4400.

Aussie flirts with 100 hour M/A Posted: 26 May 2010 12:08 AM PDT In recent trading Aud/Usd has been flirting with its 100 hour M/A to no avail. It has not been able to close any hours trading above this line. If the pair can finally break above the 100 hour M/A (.8248) it should run into short term resistance at .8285. To the downside .8190, an area of recent hourly lows, should provide some support.

GfK German Consumer Climate Posted: 25 May 2010 11:19 PM PDT GfK German Consumer Climate came in at 3.5, weaker than the 3.7 expected and prior reading of 3.7. Eur/Usd had fallen to new session low of 1.2262 in the 30 minutes prior to release and has since regained dome of that loss, currently trading at 1.2295.

Gold runs into 200 hour M/A Posted: 25 May 2010 10:24 PM PDT After bottoming out at 1165.82 last Friday gold has been on a steady rise. It is currently threatening its 200 hour M/A of 1205.75. So far this level is acting as resistance as Xau/Usd as a  failed break occured  earlier in the session. For added resistance the 50% fibo of move down from 1249.28 to 1165.82 comes in at 1207.55. A break above should bring gold to 1217.00 where the 61.8% fibo lies. If it holds the 38.2% fibo at 1197.70 should act as short term support with 100 hour M/A at 1188.26 a stronger support.

Rebroadcast of Tuesday’s Forex training Posted: 25 May 2010 09:17 PM PDT Rebroadcast of Tuesday May 25th Forex training. Click here to watch

5-26 Economic Calendar Posted: 25 May 2010 08:34 PM PDT

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