Swim The Forex: 2012

Monday, October 15, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.15.2012

Posted: 15 Oct 2012 05:05 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Monday morning markets:

Europe is still in a wait and see mode-as the Spanish saga keep going-with no end in sight.
Will they/won’t they ask for a bailout. Let’s do the bailout and go on with business.

The Greek saga continues-as the Troika continues to talk of how to achieve the 13.5 bln euros in cuts that are needed to secure the next round of loans. They are looking to have an agreement by the end of the week, as the EU is having yet another summit.
If they miss this summit-there will be one coming down the pike in a few days.

Asian equity markets were mixed-Europe is higher-as are US Futures.

Oil is higher-Gold and Silver are softer.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Friday, October 12, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.12.2012

Posted: 12 Oct 2012 05:31 AM PDT

Good Morning:

The European Union was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for promoting peace,democracy and human rights.
They were awarded this prize-as the EU was once a continent at war-and now is a continent of peace. Well Done!

Austarilia’s RBA is very concerned that the countries GDP is softening-as China’s economy is slowing.
The RBA will be able to move quickly on interest rate if needed.

Rumors are swirling that Spain will request ESM aid soon-after yesterday’s S&P downgrade of the country.
They should just get on with it already-this story is getting worn out - Like Greece.

US VP Joe Biden and Congressman Paul Ryan slugged it out in their only debate.
It was a very entertaining evening-but I do not know if it swayed the undecided voters that both parties desperately need to win.

Oil is slightly higher-Gold and Silver slightly softer.

Asian equity markets were mostly higher, Europe is mostly lower-US Futures are higher.

HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

Thursday, October 11, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.11.2012

Posted: 11 Oct 2012 05:16 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Spain was downgraded by S&P to BBB- from BBB+. This brings Spain’s debt rating to the brink of junk. Can you believe that Spanish debt is considered investment grade!
A downgrade was expected-but the S&P announcement came as a “surprise”. It could of only been a surprise to those who have been living in a cave for the past few years.
Spanish officials commented that “Spain will decide on a bailout at appropriate time”.
The time has already come-this is becoming a tedious and ridiculous game of cat and mouse.
Spain’s troubles have been mounting-but yesterday’s S&P downgrade reminded the world how bad things really are.
Unemployment continues to rise, citizens are protesting against additional austerity measures, and the Catalonia region is threatening to secede from Spain. I can go on and on-but that should give you a good idea of the issues.

In other news-Fitch Ratings put Portuguese banks on a “negative” outlook. No surprise there-except that they should of done this months ago.

Asian equity markets were mixed-Europe and US Futures are all higher.
Oil, Gold and Silver are all higher too.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.10.2012

Posted: 10 Oct 2012 05:14 AM PDT

Good Morning:

A fairly lackluster overnight session-with the majors showing no real activity.

Fitch Ratings commented that the US fiscal cliff, EU crisis, and a potential “hard landing” for the Chinese economy will be
a risk to the global economy. Thanks-I think we knew that!

Fitch also commented that the Spanish and Italian recessions are intensifying.
They also commented on the declining UK economy-and that the UK’s rating is vulnerable.
Are they positioning themselves for a UK downgrade in the future?

After Greece greeted Angela Merkel with a protest upon her visit yesterday-Greek labor unions have decided to stage anti-austerity strike on Oct. 18.
Ms Merkel was in Greece to show her support for the Greek Prime Minister-I see that didn’t go as well as expected!

Asian and European equity markets are mostly negative-as are US Futures at this time.

Oil is flat-Gold and Silver are higher.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.9.2012

Posted: 09 Oct 2012 05:30 AM PDT

Good Morning:

The IMF cut it global GDP forecast-yet again.
For 2012-they cut their estimate by .2%. From 3.5% to 3.3%.
For 2013-they cut their estimate by .3%. From 3.9% to 3.6%.

European Finance ministers are meeting in Luxembourg today-and there is no word about Spain-and any potential bailout.
The markets were expecting some comments regarding a Spanish bailout-this was dissapointing for investors.

Negotiations are continuing in Greece, regarding the 13.5 bln euros of additional budget cuts that the country must meet for any further funds to be distributed.
Angela Merkel is in Greece today-as a sign of support for the Greek PM. There are also a reported 7000 police officers in Athens to
quell any violent protests that take place.

Asian equity markets were mostly higher. Europe is mixed-and US Futures are higher.

Oil, Gold and Silver are all higher.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Friday, October 5, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.5.2012

Posted: 05 Oct 2012 05:24 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Markets are quiet ahead of this morning’s US jobs report.

Guesstimates are for the unemployment rate to push up to 8.2%-while the economy added 125K.
Let’s hope that the NFP number is higher-as job growth has been lackluster at best.
I am certain that we will see some revisions during the release-most probably higher NFP numbers-we will see.

The Euro had a bit of a rally-as the EUR/USD is in the 1.30 handle ahead of the data.

The Greek fiasco keeps going round and round. No new decisions or concessions will happen until after the
October 18 Euro Zone Summit (another one). Greece claims that they only have enough money to last to November-What a mess!!

The Spanish Finance Minister commented that he sees no reason for Spain to apply for a formal bailout. I think we heard the same thing from the Irish, Portuguese, and Greek Finance Ministers not that long ago.

Asian equity markets along with European indexes and US Futures are all higher.

Oil is a touch softer-as are Gold and Silver.

HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

Thursday, October 4, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.4.2012

Posted: 04 Oct 2012 05:36 AM PDT

Good Morning:

As expected, the Bank of England left their benchmark interest rates unchanged at .5%.
Asset purchasing program remains unchanged at 375 bln GBP.

Also-the ECB left interest rates unchanged at .75%., which was widely expected.
Marginal lending rates, and deposit facility rates remained unchanged.

Greece and the Troika are still “discussing” , but the difference they are talking about is a mere 3.5 bln euros.
In the scope of the Greek debacle-this is just a pebble in a shoe.

Portugal announced higher taxes to help meet budget targets. The economy contracted more than was expected this year-and the forecast is for the economy to contract even more than was originally planned for 2013.
No surprises there-it is always a great idea to raise taxes on an economy that is already sinking (and you can’t swim)-why don’t we just throw them an anchor next.

Spain sold some 2, 3 and 5 year bonds today-and guess who the buyer was.

Asian equity markets were higher-as are Europe and US Futures.

Gold, Silver and Oil are all higher this morning.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD L:UCK

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.3.2012

Posted: 03 Oct 2012 05:11 AM PDT

Go0d Morning:

Little movement in the markets today:
China is still on holiday-as is Korea.
Germany has National Day (Reunification Day)-but you can still clear Euro payments.

Service sector PMI data is the winner in today’s economic news race:
China dropped to 53.7 from 56.3-the lowest in 20 months.
Spain dropped to 40.2 from 44-even worse than the worst expectations.
UK dropped to 52.2 from 53.7
France dropped to 45 from 46.1-flash reading.
Germany dropped to 49.7 from50.6
Euro Zone dropped to 46.1 from 46 flash- down significantly from August’s 47.2 reading.

We are awaiting the ADP payroll data-but who really cares-as ADP has been a very weak predictor of non farm payrolls-but it
will keep us all entertained for a while this morning.

Asian equity markets were higher-expect Tokyo.
European markets are mixed-with US Futures slightly higher.

Oil is lower-Gold and Silver firmer this morning.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.2.2012

Posted: 02 Oct 2012 05:40 AM PDT

Good Morning:

A fairly inactive morning greets us:

China is still on holiday-and India is closed today-So What, you say?- That over 1/3 of the world’s population on holiday today

Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates 25bps to 3.25%.
Concerns that the boom in natural resources that they have enjoyed for years, may be coming to an end-the RBA took the opportunity to
lower interest rates.

Spanish and Italian bond yields are lower today-as the rumor mill has Spain formally asking for a bailout this week.
Spanish unemployment jumped 1.7% in Sept-rising the rate to over 25%.

Asian markets -and European markets -mostly higher-as are US futures.

Gold and Silver are lower-Oil is higher.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Monday, October 1, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

BobbysCorner-Open Market-Oct.1.2012

Posted: 01 Oct 2012 05:15 AM PDT

Good Morning:

We start the day/week/month & 4th quarter with a rally in the European equity markets.

Encouraging news from the Euro Zone’s periphery manufacturing PMI front for September is helping the markets:
Irish PMI-51.8 from 50.9
Spanish PMI 44.6 from 44.1
Italian PMI 45.7 from 43.6
Euro Zone PMI 46.1 from 46

Italian jobless rate stay steady at 10.7%. Expected 10.8%.
This is still the highest reading since 2004.

China is closed this week-and many Asian countries are closed Monday & Tuesday (Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea).

US Futures are following their European counterparts-up 50+ points.

Oil, Gold, and Silver are all lower.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Friday, September 28, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.28.2012

Posted: 28 Sep 2012 05:28 AM PDT

Good Morning:

We have a quiet end to the week-month and 3rd quarter.

Next week China is off for the week, Hong Kong is off on Monday and Tuesday, and Korea is off on Monday & Thursday.

Investors are a bit relaxed after yesterday’s Spanish budget announcement. The idea of actually cutting spending versus austerity and tax increases is welcome news to the markets.
Some of the forcasts from the government are “very hopeful”-so we will have to see how this entire scenario pans out in the short term.

Spain will sell bonds next week-they should be issuing bonds as fast as they can-while the markets till feel that the ECB could buy up the debt.

Spanish bank stress test results are due out later today also.

France is expected to announce their tough austerity budget later today.

Gold and Oil are lower-Silver is higher.

Asian equity markets were mostly higher-except that Tokyo was lower.
European equity markets are lower-and US Futures are down about 70 pts at this time.

HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

Thursday, September 27, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.27.2012

Posted: 27 Sep 2012 05:42 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Lots of news overnight-and most of it was not positive.

In Europe:
Spanish bank deposits down -1.1% in August.
EZ economic sentiment falls to 85.0 from 86.1
German unemployment +9k- as expected.
Nervousness over Spanish bank stress test results due today.
Nervousness over Spanish budget announcement due later today.

Some weak economic news from China-has spurred the rumor mill this morning-markets are thinking that China will announce a large
stimulus package after China National Day (Oct 1).

Silver, Gold and Oil are all higher.

World equity markets and US Futures are all higher today.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.25.2012

Posted: 25 Sep 2012 05:25 AM PDT

Good Morning:

The markets seem to be in the doldrums today.

Consumer sentiment/confidence data in Europe shows that the continent is still in the doldrums-as German and French data is flat-and Italian data is slightly better-but still close to record lows.

Ms. Merkel is also in the doldrums-as she feels there is still a lack of confidence in the Euro Zone.
Labor costs are too high, investors are scared of the EZ-not only a lack of confidence in the banking sector, but a lack of confidence in the sovereign governments, and their ability to repay their debt obligations.

Oil, Gold and Silver are all higher.

Asian and European equity markets were/are mixed. US Futures up small.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Monday, September 24, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.24.2012

Posted: 24 Sep 2012 05:29 AM PDT

Good Morning:

A very weak German IFO business climate index: 101.4 in September-much weaker than the 102.5 Reuters forecast, caused the Euro
take a hit.
The EUR/USD fell from the mid 1.29′s into the upper 1.28′s before settling back to 1.2910. It is presently at 1.2916.

Greek government officials insist that 13.5 bln euros will close their budget gap-outside sources state that the amount will be closer
to 20 bln euros.

The markets are awaiting Spain to formally ask for a bailout from the ECB within days. Spain is about to approve a tough new budget-while also in need of a 60 bln euro bailout for their banks.

Also in the headlines is a story that the ECB is awaiting a formal request for bailout package for Cyprus too..

“When it rains-it pours”

Oil, Gold and Silver are all lower.
Equity markets and US Futures were/are all in negative territory .

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Friday, September 21, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.21.2012

Posted: 21 Sep 2012 05:09 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Rumors about a Spanish bailout hit the markets today.
FT ran a story that EU officials are meeting with Spanish government officials to work on the conditions for a bailout plan.

There may be an announcement as early as next week. Talks are focused on reforming the economy, versus sticking a beaten down economy with additional taxes, benefit cuts, or overall general austerity measures.
Also- next Friday the Spanish government is expected to announce the results on the health of their banking system, and give the EU an idea of how much additional capital will be required for the banks. What a mess!

So… as we know the markets love any sign of good news-and the Spanish bailout is percieved as “good” news.

Asian equity markets were all in positive territory-European indexes are also in positive territory-and US Futures are higher too.

Oil, Gold and Silver are all higher on the day.

HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.19.2012

Posted: 19 Sep 2012 05:22 AM PDT

Good Morning:

The Bank of Japan expands asset purchase program to 55 trillion yen-from 45 trillion yen. Interest rates were left unchanged-as was widely expected.
The bright light from this latest round of intervention was dimmed once Europe entered the markets-and the woes of the EuroZone resurfaced.
The Euro has given up some ground-and equity markets are softer.

S&P affirms Austrailia’s AAA rating-outlook-”stable”. A rare bright light in today’s financial arena.

Oil is lower
Gold is higher-Silver is softer.

Asian equity markets were higher-Europe is mixed-US futures are higher.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.12.2012

Posted: 12 Sep 2012 04:10 AM PDT

Good Morning:

I am writing you from Dubai-where we are attending the 3rd Arab FX Championship and Expo.

The German courts have rejected the complaints against the ESM fiscal pact as largely unfounded.
1) Allows ratification of ESM fiscal pact with conditions.
2) German liability not to exceed 190 bln euros-without approval from Parliament (this was widely expected).
3) Both house of Parliament must be informed of ESM decisions.
4) Rejects complaint regarding ECB bond buying.

After the court announcement the EUR/USD jumped into the 1.29 handle-which is where it is still trading.

The Spanish PM has made comments that the recent market calm-and the decrease in Spanish bond yields have given Spain time to consider various conditions of an ECB bailout. He has also commented that the decrease in bond yields has made the need of a bailout less necessary. Does that mean that they will have less of a necessity for further austerity and to trim their budget??-One never knows why politicians make certain comments-maybe foot in mouth disease??

Oil, Gold and Silver are all higher.
Asian equity markets were higher-as are European indexes. Dow futures are also higher at this time.

Today begins a 2 day FOMC meeting-which will conclude on Thursday with an expected announcement regarding QE3.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

ent

Monday, October 15, 2012

Friday, October 12, 2012

Thursday, October 11, 2012

Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Friday, October 5, 2012

Thursday, October 4, 2012

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

Monday, October 1, 2012

Friday, September 28, 2012

Thursday, September 27, 2012

Tuesday, September 25, 2012

Monday, September 24, 2012

Friday, September 21, 2012

Wednesday, September 19, 2012

Wednesday, September 12, 2012

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