Swim The Forex: May 2012

Thursday, May 31, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-May.31.2012

Posted: 31 May 2012 05:20 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Some positive data from German gave the markets a bit of a pick up as the month ends.
German retail sales (April) up .6%
German jobless total down 5K
German unemployment rate 6.7% down from 6.8% (this is the lowest level since reunification)

Yesterday’s market sell off showed how the markets are thinking about the sad state of affairs in Europe.
Yesterday we saw Italian and Spanish bond yields climb-but we also saw record low yields in the US, UK, Finland,Netherlands,France and Austria, as money made it’s way to safer havens.

Spanish banks lost a total of 1.9% of their deposit base-as Spanish investors removed their cash from the banking system.
Was the money used to “make ends meet” or was this a sign of a nervous economy. I think the latter is the main reason.

Asian equity markets were lower-while European and US Futures are in positive territory.

ADP employment data showed a rise of 133K in the private sector.

Gold & Silver are lower.
Oil is higher-but still under $88/bbl.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-May.30.3012

Posted: 30 May 2012 05:16 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Another bad day for the Euro Zone:

The single currency came under heavy pressure this morning as the ongoing worries over the Euro Zone, with the main catalyst being Spain’s beleaguered banking sector.

Italian auction results: worse bids and missed full target amount.
5 year: yield 5.66% versus 4.86% previously
10 year: yield 6.03% versus 5.84% previously

Spanish/German 10 year gov’t bond yield spread widens to 537 bps from 508bps.

The National Bank of Greece commented that if Greece left the euro:
-living standards would drop
-incomes would be cut by 1/2
-unemployment would climb

I think we all know this-the entire region is in a catch 22 situation.

WTI dropes below $90/bbl-ahead of inventory reports.

World equity markets and US Futures are all negative.

Metals are also in negative territory.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOD LUCK

Friday, May 25, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-May.25.2012

Posted: 25 May 2012 05:39 AM PDT

Good Morning:

A none event overnight session greats us this morning.

Some (non-encouraging) comments from Belgian Foreign Minister Reynders kept the markets awake:
1) Greece can’t handle further spending cuts
2) Greeks need to pay their taxes
3) Would be "grave professional error" if central banks and companies not preparing for Greece euro exit

More bad news from Greece:
Tourism fell 15.1% in Q1-2012 according to data from the central bank.
Authorities ask Greek’s to keep their money in the banks-as they are concerned of a run on the banks.
Potential Greek bank run could be contagious throughout the region.

Asian equity markets were mixed-Europe is lower and US Futures are also lower.
Gold, Silver and Oil are all slightly lower.

Remember that both NY and UK centers are closed on Monday-and markets may be illiquid.

HAVE A GREAT DAY- WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

Thursday, May 24, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-May.24.2012

Posted: 24 May 2012 05:21 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Some weak economic data from the Euro Zone kept the single currency under pressure.

German IFO business climate down at 106.9-median forecast was for 109.4
Dutch unemployment moves up to 6.2% from 5.9%
German May flash manufacturing PMI 45.0 down from 46.2-forecast 47
French May flash manufacturing 44.4 down from 46.9-forecast 47
one flash composite PMI 45.9 down from 46.7-lowest read since June 2009

The news in Europe continues to disappoint-and is there any real remedy-certainly not in the short term.

Asian equity markets were mixed. European equities are all higher-IS Futures are also higher at this time.
Gold, Silver and Oil are all higher.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-May.23.2012

Posted: 23 May 2012 05:27 AM PDT

Good Morning:

The euro is close to a 21 month low versus the greenback.
With Euro Zone leaders meeting today, the markets are very skeptical that there will be any new ideas to reign in the European crisis.
Italian May consumer confidence falls to 86.5 from 89.0.

Japan’s downgrade was a warning to the rest of the world about growing debt. With Japan’s public debt growing, and no sound fiscal policy to reign in the problem-Japan’s future is not looking good.
Japan’s public debt is expected to reach over 235% of GDP this year. This is compared to the US-which is running at 70% of GDP .
This ratio is not sustainable-and with Japan going into it’s 3rd (lost) decade-the world’s 3rd largest economy is clearly in danger of imploding.
With the BOJ’s stimulus measures and continued bond auctions, the country will stay afloat-but the long term may turn very ugly.

World equity markets are lower-as are US Futures.

Oil and Gold are also lower.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-May.22.2012

Posted: 22 May 2012 05:21 AM PDT

Good Morning:

The overnight session started with Fitch Rating;s downgraded Japan. The downgrade was for Japan’s long term rating-and was moved to A+-with a negative outlook.

The greenback was higher today-as continued concerns over the euro region supported the move to the safe haven of the USD.

JP Morgan’s losses could exceed $7 billion-according to a report from the UK.

In European news:
Spain’s bank losses could reach 260 bln euros.
Spain sold 2.53 bln euros of 3 & 6 month bills: They are selling their treasuries-but are paying the price.
3 month bills yield .846% versus .634%
6 month bills yield 1.737% versus 1.58%
IMF suggests that BOE should cut rate and expand the QE program.

Asian equity markets were higher-as are European and US Futures.
Oil is a touch softer
Gold & Silver are lower.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Monday, May 21, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-May.21.2012

Posted: 21 May 2012 05:32 AM PDT

Good Morning:

As expected-the G8 Summit was anticlimactic-and produced nothing new.
The Euro Zone had lots of issues last week:
New French leader-looks at growth-not austerity
Spain’s budget deficit problems grow wider
Greece-are they or are they not leaving the Euro?

G8 members are showing their continued support for Greece to stay with the Euro.

European leaders are having their own summit meeting this Wednesday-Boy they like to go to meetings!

One of the main discussions will center around the fact that France’s new President, who won the election because he called for growth, is clearly at odds with Germany’s desire to cut spending and put the region on austerity measures,

Asian equity markets were mostly higher-while Europe and US Futures are all in positive territory.
Gold & Silver are lower-Oil is a touch higher.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Friday, May 18, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-May.18.2012

Posted: 18 May 2012 05:50 AM PDT

Good Morning:

The equity markets started the overnight session down 3% throughout the region.
The continued ongoing Greek crisis along with the downgrade of Spanish banks all lead to the drop.

The Euro initially took a beating-EUR/USD traded as low as 1.2641, and then as the market’s soaked in the news-the pair rose to a high of 1.2728. Quite a comeback by the single currency.

The Euro Zone had a really tough week:
-with no real news or changes in Greece-except talk about the election-which is not till June 17.
-new governments in France and Greece, after May’s election.
-Spanish bank downgrades.

Now all eyes will be on this weekend’s G-8 meeting at Camp David.

Asian equity markets were lower-Europe is mixed-while US Futures are higher.

Oil is lower-Gold is higher today.
Facebook IPO priced at $38/share-let’s see how the markets cooperate.

HAVE A GREAT DAY- WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

Thursday, May 17, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-May.17.2012

Posted: 17 May 2012 05:14 AM PDT

Good Morning:

A fairly quiet session-Especially in Europe due to the Ascension Day holiday.

Spanish auction results helped raise 2.494 bln euros-but they had to pay up for the funds.
April 2016 bond-yield at 5.106% versus 3.374% previously
July 2015 bond yields at 4.876% versus 4.037% previously
January 2015 bond yields at 4.375% versus 2.890% previously

Italian 10 year bond yields touching 6%.

The estimated cost of Greece exiting from the euro is being put at $1 trillion-but this is just an estimate-so I am certain that the real cost will be much higher.

Nerves are taking center stage in the marketplace, as the entire Euro Zone is reeling in bad news, and the rest of the world is very concerned. The US is concerned that the contagion could cross the Atlantic, and those economies in Europe that are not being so hard hit are always going to be cautious and concerned about their neighbors.

Gold is higher-and Oil is just a bit stronger since NY woke up.

Equity markets are lower-along with US Futures.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-May.16.2012

Posted: 16 May 2012 05:32 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Cable lost some steam after BOE’s King made comments that the UK recovery will be “slow and uncertain”. With the UK financial sector
exposed to the Euro Zone and their current crisis, there will be continued pressure on their economy.
Inflation in the UK inched higher-while growth in the nation slowed.

The Euro lost steam-and dropped below the 1.27 level in overnight trading. The continued concerns over Greece, and that Spain will face “astronomical” borrowing cost (according to Rajoy)-there is a risk that the markets may stop lending to the country-which would cause a major credit crisis throughout the region. These components all lead to the drop in the euro.

Gold is lower-at $1540/oz. Oil is also lower.
Asia equity markets were lower-and Europe is mostly higher except for the FTSE.
Dow Futures are also higher at this time.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-May.15.2012

Posted: 15 May 2012 05:38 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Germany had some positive news today-when German Q1 took the markets by surprise and rose .5% versus the .1% that was expected.
It seems that better than expected exports along with better than expected consumer spending kept the data positive.
The German data helped keep Euro Zone Q1 GDP flat-as opposed to a negative number.
Italian preliminary Q1 GDP was -.8%-higher than the -.6% expected.
Dutch Q1 GDP -.2%-better than the -.3% that was expected.

After yesterday’s downgrade of 26 Italian banks by Moody’s-the markets and rating agencies will be looking at the Spanish and the rest of Europe’s banking sector with a fine tooth comb, not that they haven’t been.

US Retail Sales rise .1%-as expected.
US April CPI +2.3%-as expected.

Dow Futres are positive-as are world equity markets.
Oil is higher too.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Monday, May 14, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-May.14.2012

Posted: 14 May 2012 05:20 AM PDT

Good Morning:

I see that the trend has stayed one sided since I was last in the USA- over 2 weeks ago.

I have been across North America, Saudi Arabia,Qatar,Jordan with a quick stop in Egypt-to see our clients and IBs throughout the region.

Risk off- as the markets are concerned over Greece-with Spain not far behind-and worries over the Chinese economy, and the about future growth of the country is adding jitters to the markets.

Spanish German 10 year government bond spreads increased to a record 484 bps from 449 bps first thing this morning.
Italy also sold 3.5 billion euros of 3 year notes at 3.91%, European sovereign bonds are selling-just at higher yields.

Euro is lower
Gold and metals are lower
WTI & Brent are lower
10 year US treasury yields are lower
Equities are lower too.

Let’s see what today brings:

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Saturday, May 5, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Mirror Trader Webinar with Ophir Schultz Wednesday May 16, 2012 1:00 PM

Posted: 04 May 2012 09:04 AM PDT

We are pleased to announce a special Mirror Trader Webinar. Bill Lawless, FXDD’s Head of Sales and Shawn Powell, from FXDD Business Development will host Tradency’s Global Business Manager, Ophir Schultz, Wednesday May 16, 2012 1:00 PM. This online class will feature training information on the new FXDD Mirror Trader MT4 plug in for automated trading. You will have the opportunty to ask the three trainers questions live during the class. Also if you register for the class, you will get the recording emailed to you after the class ends. Here is the link to register https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/231357096

Friday, May 4, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Special FXDD Masters Live Webinar today at 4:00 PM Greg, James and Shawn

Posted: 03 May 2012 12:22 PM PDT

Special FXDD Masters Live Webinar today at 4:00 PM with Greg Michalowski, James Chen and Shawn – Register now. FXDD’s Chief Currency Analyst Greg Michalowski, FXDD’s Director of Technical Research and FXDD’s Shawn Powell, Business Development Director will host a special Masters Live Intro webinar. Its free to attend and will feature details on the upcoming event and some great interview questions.
https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/755275176

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Special Webinar today featuring James Chen and Shawn Powell

Posted: 01 May 2012 10:10 AM PDT

Special Webinar today featuring James Chen and Shawn Powell. Greg Michalowski is away so we will be doing something a little bit different. Join us for a unique webinar at 4:00pm today. Watch the Rebroadcast now

Thursday, May 31, 2012

Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Friday, May 25, 2012

Thursday, May 24, 2012

Wednesday, May 23, 2012

Tuesday, May 22, 2012

Monday, May 21, 2012

Friday, May 18, 2012

Thursday, May 17, 2012

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Monday, May 14, 2012

Saturday, May 5, 2012

Friday, May 4, 2012

Wednesday, May 2, 2012

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