Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.31.2012

Posted: 31 Jul 2012 05:14 AM PDT

Good Morning:

The last trading day of the month greets us with a very lackluster day of trading movement and volatility.

News in Europe continues to be disappointing:
Spanish retail sales dropped 5.2% y/y (June) versus down 4.9% y/y in May.  This is the 24th month of falling retail sales.
Greek retail sales dropped 10.3% in May versus dropping 13.3% in April.
Italian unemployment rose to 10.8% from 10.6% in May(revised from 10.1% in May) expected 10.2%.
Euro Zone unemployment rose to 11.2% in June.  May 11.1%.
Poor earnings from 3 of Europe’s largest banks: Deutsche, UBS and BBVA all missed their targets.

Even Germany is not completely immune to the bad news in the Euro Zone:
Retail sales dropped .1% in June-dropped .3% in May.   +.5% was expected
German unemployment is at 6.8%-this is the 4th month that the number has stayed stable.

Oil is higher-over $90/bbl.
Gold and Silver are also higher.
Asian equity markets were higher-Europe is mixed-US Futures are higher.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Monday, July 30, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.30.2012

Posted: 30 Jul 2012 05:30 AM PDT

Good Morning:

A quiet start to a very busy week of data  greets us this fine summer Monday.

We have the FOMC meeting this week.
Bank of England rate decision on Thursday.
ECB rate decision of Thursday.
US payroll and jobs data on Friday.

In other news:
S&P reaffirms US AAA status-with a stable outlook.
Spanish Q2 GDP fell to -.4% from -.3% in Q1- Down 1% y/y.
Italian bond auction of 2,5 and 10 year maturities-saw demand fall-but better yields.
Spanish 10 year bonds continue their rally.

Asian equity markets were higher-Europe is higher.  US Futures are lower.
Gold, Silver are higher.  Oil lower.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

  

 

 

Friday, July 27, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.27.2012

Posted: 27 Jul 2012 05:10 AM PDT

Good Morning:

The Draghi rally did spill over to the Asian session-Europe is also higher-as are US Futures.

The Euro picked up also=-even though the overall news in Europe is not positive.
Spain’s Q2 unemployment rate rose to 24.63% from 24.44 in Q1.  This is the highest level since 1976.
French Consumer Confidence drops to 87- expected-90
Italian Business Confidence falls to 87.1 in July- from 88.7 in June.

Periphery Euro Zone bond yields dip:
Italian 10 year-under 6%
Spanish 10 year at 6.78%

Let’s hope that next Thursday when ECB President Draghi speaks-he will “walk the walk”-after yesterday’s “talk the talk”.

Oil, Silver and Gold are all higher.

HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

Thursday, July 26, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.26.2012

Posted: 26 Jul 2012 05:29 AM PDT

Good Morning:

We had 2 markets this morning:

1) Pre ECB President Mario Draghi comments:
Markets were choppy-with no real direction-investors were starting to look at next week’s slew of economic data:
Tues/Wed- FOMC
Thursday- ECB and BOE meetings and rate decisions
Friday- US payroll and employment data

2) Post ECB President Mario Draghi comments:
Draghi says he will do whatever it takes to preserve the Euro (within ECB mandate).
He gives euro bears a bloody nose-as the EUR/USD jumps over 100 bps-after his comments.
He also stated that the ECB could restart it’s bond buying program to support “monetary policy transmission”-which had been disrupted by the sovereign debt crisis.
Bond yields have declined in Italy and Spain.

The sharp reaction to Draghi’s comments was due to the fact that the ECB is the only European institution with any credibility left-so instead of the market listening to politicians spewing political rhetoric all day-they are actually looking to the ECB for direction.

Equity markets in Asia were higher-As is Europe and US Futures.

Oil, Gold and Silver are all higher.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK
|

 

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.25.2012

Posted: 25 Jul 2012 05:31 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Lots of action overnight-not much is very positive though.

Apple missed estimates for only the 2nd time in 10 years.  Shares are down 6% in Germany this morning.

UK Q2 GDP -.7% Q/Q  expected -.2%
UK Q2 GDP -.8% Y/Y  expected -.3%
UK blames extra public holiday for the Queens Jubilee, and bad weather for the weak Q2 results.
Either way you look at it-the UK economy is in the tank-and the additional QE program has not done much.

German IFO 103.3  worse than expected at 104.5
Dutch July business confidence -5.2 pts versus -4.8 pts in June.

European bonds yields are moving higher with Spain over the magic 7& level-and Italy just behind them.

Asian equity markets were lower-Europe and US Futures are higher.

Oil, Gold and Silver are all higher.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Thursday, July 19, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.19.2012

Posted: 19 Jul 2012 05:25 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Spain had a tough time as they went to the markets to sell more debt to the world.
Spain raised 2.981 bln in this morning's auctions vs target 3 bln.
2 year average yield 5.204% vs previous 4.335%
5 year average yield 6.459% vs previous 6.072%
7 year average yield 6.701% vs previous 4.832%
The 10 year govt bond yield has moved through the psychological 7% -presently at 7.02% :(

10 year Italian bonds are above 6% again.

Asian/European and US Futures are all higher on the day.

Gold & Silver are higher also.
Oil is higher-over $91/bbl.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK- I will be away doing “family things” the next few days.

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.18.2012

Posted: 18 Jul 2012 05:38 AM PDT

Good Morning:

We have another day of Dr. Bernanke speaking to Congress- so we will see what that brings.

BOE minutes showed that MPC voted 7-2 to raise QE by 50 bln GBP.  Also they voted 9-0 to keep interest rates steady.

Bank of Spain reports that Spanish bad  bank loans rise to 8.95% from 8.72% in April.

The LIBOR scandal continues-with the spotlight on the Bank of England.

US June housing starts rise to 760K from 745K

  • Highest since Oct 2008
  • May reading was 708K (revised to 711K)
  • Building permits 755K vs 765K exp
  • Prior permits reading was 784K

    Oil is slightly softer.
    Gold and silver are lower.
    Asian equity markets were mostly lower-Europe \higher-US Futures lower.

    HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.17.2012

Posted: 17 Jul 2012 05:36 AM PDT

Good Morning:

The markets are on hold, awaiting Fed Chairman Bernanke’s semi annual Congressional testimony.
Economic news has turned a bit sour since last weeks FOMC minutes were released, so it will be interesting to hear his comments today and tomorrow.
Included in the souring economic news is the weaker than expected retail sales data, along with the IMF’s lowering of the global forcast.
  
The negative news in Europe just keeps coming:
Moody’s cuts 13 Italian banks by 1 to 2 notches-following Moody’s downgrade of Italy last week.
Moody’s stated that their main concern is that the Italian government will not be able to financially support their banking sector if the need arises.
German ZEW -19.6 in July versus 16.9 in June.
Bank of Spain see GDP falling to 1.5% in 2012.

In other news:
The US government is investigating HSBC for failing to implement an appropriate anti money laundering procedure.
It seems that HSBC’s Mexican division was particulary negligent-who woulda  thought!!

The libor scandal is now being probed in the US along with the UK.  Barclay’s CEO, Robert Diamond has resigned as the scandal unravels.

Asian equity markets were higher-Europe is mostly higher except the FTSE.  US Futures are also higher at this time.

Oil is higher-metals are lower.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Monday, July 16, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.16.2012

Posted: 16 Jul 2012 05:18 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Lots of doom and gloom from the media regarding the state of the world’s economy greet us this Monday in July.

Markets are lower in most categories: 
Asian equity markets were lower-Japan was closed for Marine Day. 
European equity markets are also lower 
US Futures are lower 
Metals are lower
Crude Oil is lower
US bond yields are lower

We have a slew of earnings coming out this week-so this will keep investors awake and alert!

My main concern is-if the US economy is sliding back into recession-then what is the Fed doing to fight it this time. 
I am sure that Dr. Bernanke is running out of tricks to pull out of his magic bag, let’s hope that he has a few left.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Friday, July 13, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.13.2012

Posted: 13 Jul 2012 05:24 AM PDT

Good Morning:

It was a real Friday the 13th for Italy-as Moody’s downgraded Italy’s bond rating by 2 notches-from a3 to Baa2.
Moody’s also warned of possible downgrades in the future.
Italian government ministers commented that the downgrades were unjustified, misleading and arbitrary.
In the wake of the downgrade-Italian debt is still trading pretty well:
2 year paper  dropped 20bps in yield to 3.70%
10 year paper at 6% yield.

Spanish bonds are also faring better with  2 year paper at 4.6% and 10 year paper at 6.68% (under the magic 7%).
Data released today also shows that Spanish banks continue to depend on the ECB for funding at an alarming rate.
They borrowed 365bln euros in June-up large from 324.6 bln in May.

Asian equity market were higher. Europe is also higher. as are US Futures.
Gold, silver and Oil are all higher.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Thursday, July 12, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.12.2012

Posted: 12 Jul 2012 05:35 AM PDT

Good Morning:

The FOMC minutes disappointed market participants as there was no sign of any additional QE.  The minutes did show a gloomy cloud over the economy. It looks like a “wait and see” attitude will be the current monetary policy before adapting any further stimulus measures.

Equity markets are struggling. Asian markets were all lower-European and US Futures are also lower.

In Europe- Bonds are rallying:
Dutch 2 year bonds turn negative for the first time ever.  last at -.001%.
Italy sold 1 year bills at 2.697% vs, 3.972% in June
Italian 10 year bonds-yields down to 5.75%
Spanish 10 year bonds-yields down to 6.53%

BUT-not all the news is positive:
Irish Q1 GDP -1.1%- much below Reuters consensus of +.4%
Greek unemployment rose again: 22.5% in June vs 22% in May- no surprises there.

US initial jobless claims 350K vs 372K

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

 

Gold and Silver are lower
Oil is lower-@ $84.53/bbl.

 

Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.11.2012

Posted: 11 Jul 2012 05:46 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Markets are fairly calm this morning-as investors continue to search for the safest assets.

10 year yields on Austrian, Belgium and French bonds all still have a “2″ big figure.  This is versus the US and Germany which have a “1″ handle on their 10 year paper.

Spanish yields were a bit lower-after PM Rajoy outlined austerity measures.  Do not get too excited-it is still over 6.7%.
Spain to increase VAT to 21% from 18%-along with a slew of additional user taxes, and ending a rebate for home buyers.

This is just what the Spanish economy needs as the struggle to get out of this recession:
Higher taxes and additional austerity measures-the perfect recipe for an economic debacle.

Bank of Italy Governor Visco commented today that the spreads that the Italian bond markets must pay are unjustified.
He did state that some Italian banks need to increase their capital base,  cut costs, and improve their risk management processes.  
PM Monti stated that Italy is a “war”.  He states that the inherited public debt is an ongoing problem-ya think!
Italy seems a little defensive-as it looks like they will be the next “target” in the continuing economic battle in Europe. 

Oil is higher-back over $85/bbl.
Gold and Silver are higher.

Asian equity markets were mixed-Europe is lower.  US Futures are looking to a positive opening on Wall Street this morning.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

 

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.10.2012

Posted: 10 Jul 2012 05:36 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Some good news for Spain overnight.
European finance ministers gave Spain an additional year to meet their deficit targets (3% of GDP in 2014 instead of 2013.
The ministers will front run the funds for the recapitalization of the banks by offering 30 bln euros by the end of this month-and up to a total of 100 bln euros.

China had some dissapointing data out today-they reported very weak import numbers, which were 1/2 of what was expected.

Bank of England’s King stated that the expected recovery in the UK, has not materialized as of yet.
He can’t be overly surprised by the lack of recovery.

  • UK economy is not showing signs of recovery
  • He is worried about the export outlook due to strong pound
  • Euro crisis causing 'great black cloud' of uncertainty

    Asian equity markets were lower-European and US Futures are higher at this time.

    Oil is lower.
    Gold and Silver is higher

    A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Friday, July 6, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.6.2012

Posted: 06 Jul 2012 05:18 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Markets are not doing a lot-sitting around and waiting for this morning’s US jobs data.

The markets are looking for around 100K new jobs created-and for the unemployment rate to stay steady at 8.2%/
The markets will look at the recent averages to get a better picture of job growth during the past 12 months.
This will be interesting data to look at after the 8:30 initial numbers get published.

The biggest moves today are in the bond markets.
We have seen record lows for 2 year French debt, and the 2 year German Schatz has gone negative
again (currently at -.002%).

Spanish 10 year bonds had their worst day yesterday-taking yields just below 7%.
Spanish/German spreads widened to 555 bps-we saw these spreads in mid June too.
Italian bonds are also having a rough time today-as their yields are just below Spain’s-as contagion continues to plauge 
the EU markets.

Asian equity markets were lower-as are European equities, and US Futures.

Oil is lower-as are the Gold and Silver markets.

HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

Thursday, July 5, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.5.2012

Posted: 05 Jul 2012 05:21 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Well-an interesting morning greats us.

The ECB cuts their benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to .75% from 1%.
This was highly expected.  The ECB cut the deposit rate it offers to banks that park their excess funds with them t0 0%.

The Bank of England increased their QE program by 50 billion pounds.
In a surprise move the PBOC cut their 1 year lending rate by 31 bps to 6%.

Oil is higher again this morning.

Asian equity markets were mixed-European equity markets are now mostly higher-as are US Futures.

ADP: US added 175K private sector jobs-105K expected.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.3.2012

Posted: 03 Jul 2012 06:07 AM PDT

Good Morning:

A somewhat quiet overnight session-as the markets realize that the US will be closed tomorrow for the July 4th-Independence
Day holiday.

In an expected move-the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) left interest rates unchanged-with their benchmark rate staying stable at 3.5%.

Now for some European news:

Spanish unemployment dropped by over 2%-as the country gets ready for the summer tourist season.
German new car registration up almost 3%-they do love their cars!
Ireland looks to auction 500 mln euros of 3 months t-bill on July 5.
Italian PM Monti expects spending cuts to increase.

Oil is up over $2
Gold & Silver are also higher.

Asian & European equity markets are higher-as are US Futures.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

 

Monday, July 2, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.2.2012

Posted: 02 Jul 2012 05:50 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Lots of secondary noise from the markets today-but there was some good activity in the marketplace-especially for a Monday in July.

Last week’s positive market reaction from the EU Summit was a lift that the markets needed-but like all political events-talk is cheap.
The details are not clear and implementation will be even harder.  

According to Greek government sources-Greece received the remaining 1 billion euros from the last bailout agreement.

French National Auditor: 2012-13 will be “difficult”:
Estimate growth at .4% for 2012-1% for 2013.
6-10 bln euros in new deficit cutting measures for 2012
33 bln euros of cuts will be needed for 2013.
Where will they find these cuts?  Less wine and truffles maybe?

Asian equity markets were mostly higher-Europe is higher-US Futures are virtually flat at this time.

Oil, Gold and Silver are all lower.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK