Gregg Greenberg breaks down today’s market action. Guests include Dan Greenshields, president of ING Direct’s Sharebuilder, Greg Michalowski, chief currency analyst at FXDD and Raghav Bahl, author of “Superpower?”
To access the interview click on the following link:
Monday: 10:00 AM ET: US ISM Manufacturing: 54.2 ex vs 54.4 last 11:30 PM ET: Reserve Bank of Australia, Exp no change at 4.5%
Tuesday: 4:15 AM ET: CHF Retail Sales Y/Y, 1.4% vs 0.1%
Wednesday: 8:15 AM ET: ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 22k vs. -39k last 10:00 AM ET: ISM Non Manufacturing PMI 53.5 vs 53.2 last month 2:15 PM ET: FOMC Decision
Thursday: 8:00 AM ET: UK Asset Purchase Facility and Official Bank Rate, 200B vs 200B 8:45 AM ET: Minimum Bid Rate ECB, Unchanged 9:30 AM ET: Trichet Press Conference 10:00 AM ET: Ivey PMI, 69.7 vs 70.3 last month 8:30 AM ET: RBA Monetary Policy Statement
Friday: 7:00 AM ET: Canada Employment Change 10.1K vs -6.6K, Rate 8.0% vs 8.0% 8:30 AM ET: US Non-Farm Payroll 65K vs -95K last, Private Payrolls +80K vs +64K last month, Unemployment Rate 9.6% vs 9.6% 10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales 3.4% vs 4.3% 2:00 PM ET: FOMC Bernanke Speaks
University of Michigan Consumer Confidence comes in weaker at 67.9 opposed to 68.2 of the prior month. Economic conditions fell from the prior month while the economic outlook rose to 64.6 vs. 60.9.
Chicago PMI comes in at 60.6 vs a prior figure of 60.4, Prices Paid, Production, New Orders, Order Backlogs, Inventories, Employment, Supplier Deliveries also all rise from the month of September.
He may be weighing in for more Fed stimulus with the somewhat unusual comment. Additional QE would be geared toward lowering long term rates which could make home affordability greater and also allow more refinancings to occur.
GDP 2.0% avs 2.1% and Consumption 2.6% vs 2.5%. The EURUSD has moved higher on the slightly weaker data
The EURUSD is testing the 200 hour MA at the 1.3894 level. Look for profit takers against the level with stops on a move above the level. The 100 hour MA comes in just below that level at 1.3880. This is a another key level to watch.
Expectations are above and below 2%. A weaker number should lead to a weaker dollar and speculation of more QE. A stronger number SHOULD be a benefit to the dollar. Watch the key technical levels.
The Euro fell as investor’s concerns over sovereign debt problems resurfaced. The widening credit spreads for different sovereign’s within the Euro Zone. Another hit to the Euro came as German retail sales printed much lower than expected. Even with growth within Germany-this data suggests that the German consumer is still very cautious. The JPY rose as investors look for the safety of the currency-as world wide equity markets lost ground last night. The Yen also took advantage of heavy month end buying by exporters.
World equities are lower-as are US Futures at this time.
The Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde markets continue for the dollar. One day the dollar is up the other down. Today, much worse than expected Retail Sales out of Germany started the move higher for the dollar. Today GDP and end of month will dominate. Next week is the all important FOMC meeting and US elections.
For a look at the market and the key levels to watch through the 8:30 economic data, click on the following video commentary
The EURUSD reached a peak of 1.3897, just short of the 100 and 200 hour resistance at the 1.3898 level. When the two moving averages and price converge it is indicative of a non-trending market. Typically, the market price moves away from the level. Since the EURUSD has had a steady climb higher today that has taken the pair up from a low of 1.3733 during yesterdays NY PM trading, the market is likely to pause the ascent. Support is likely to come in at the 1.3861 area where a trendline support comes in.
The USDJPY has moved below the 81.12 level and despite the strong Initial Claims, the price is remaining down. Watch the 100 and 200 hour MA at the 81.24 level for clues.
The dollar rally lost steam as an increase in demand for higher-yielding assets has investors interest as the market prepares for the Fed to implement QE2. The Fed has been “asking” bond dealers and investors their projections on the impact to yields due to any new QE2 initiative. The BOJ left interest rates unchanged, and instituted no new monetary initiatives, which left market participants looking for clear direction regarding the JPY.
Equity markets are mostly higher-as are US Futures.
Initial claims have fell in the favor of the job market with the October 23 week end showing a much better claim with 434,000 vs. the 475 of October 9. Four week moving average is staying in between 455K - 465K
The up and down of the dollar was to the downside today as the market worries about the effects of the quantiative easing. The Fed was reported on Bloomberg to have sent a survey to dealers gauging their expectations and effects. When QE and potential for more rather than less is expected, the dollar comes under more pressure.
Today the initial claims is the only data expected. Expected is 453K vs 452K last week
New Home Sales: Survey: 300K Actual: 307K Prior: 288K
New Home Sales(MoM): Survey: 4.2% Actual: 6.6% Prior: 0.0% Revised: 1.1%
Septembers month supply comes in at 8.0 vs. an August month supply of 8.6, showing a lower figure in September means the housing market is improving with less housing available on the market. The Average house price in September was $257,500 dropping from $260,500 in August. Median Price rising from $220,500 in August to $223,000. Home sales showing slight improvement in the US.
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The greenback rose on the heels of lower equity and US Treasury prices. The size of the Feds QE2 program and the scope of this program is now being questioned-as market participants are trying to get a handle on what the Fed will actually do with the QE2 program, will they commit a few hundred million USD or upward of 1 trillion USD-that is the question. Data from down-under showed that inflation rose higher than anticipated in Australia-and the Aussie slid as investors speculate that the RBA will leave interest rates unchanged for the remainder of 2010.
China’s National Development and Reform Commission infers that inflation will remain under control for the remainder of the year and that economic growth will remain strong.
After making a new low of 80.40 2 days ago Usd/Jpy has began to strengthen. The pair is at its session high of 80.75 and seems poised to make a run at 82.00. Next resistance is 82.50-55 which signifies the 38.2% Fibo of move down from 85.92 to 80.40. If the pair reverses 81.25-30 should act as support.
Good Morning:
Good Morning:
