Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Portuguese PM says country faces deep problems that require urgent solutions
• S&P report says US interest rates (not short term) can only go up from here
• Feds Bullard says financial market effects on Feds QE2 were same as if Fed reduced rates
• Greek austerity measures pass as expected
• US Chicago PMI Rises and NAPM Milwaukee Stays According To Forecast
• AUDUSD. Watching the technicals as momentum slows
• German Ministry of Finance have received agreement with German banks on a Greek aid program
• USDCHF/EURCHF surge to new day/week highs
• Report: Greek opposition will support 22 of 49 Greek Austerity measures
• The vote is ungoing for the Greek Austerity program
• Charting the Majors with James Chen – Webinar STARTING SOON at 9:30 AM ET
• EURUSD tests yesterday’s ceiling at 1.4447 (and other levels) and bounces
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Canada GDP Slightly Improves
• US Jobless Claims Continue To Grow Higher

Portuguese PM says country faces deep problems that require urgent solutions Posted: 30 Jun 2011 07:19 AM PDT The threat of contagion would have Portugal as a target. There debt rates are also elevated well above German rates with 5 year notes currently yielding 13.26% – off the recent highs from last week at 13.81% but up from 4.27% in December 2010.

S&P report says US interest rates (not short term) can only go up from here Posted: 30 Jun 2011 07:18 AM PDT …they add that the Fed is likely not to raise the Fed Funds target however.

Feds Bullard says financial market effects on Feds QE2 were same as if Fed reduced rates Posted: 30 Jun 2011 07:15 AM PDT There are some who feel that the QE2 added speculative money to the market which may have contributed to asset bubbles in some sectors including commodities.  This may have been de-stabilizing.  So although what Bullard says cannot really be disproved, it is likely not able to be proved either. Bullard talks to this point by also adding that effects of asset purchases on real economy harder to assess beccause of shocks to economy in early 2011.

Greek austerity measures pass as expected Posted: 30 Jun 2011 07:12 AM PDT

US Chicago PMI Rises and NAPM Milwaukee Stays According To Forecast Posted: 30 Jun 2011 07:11 AM PDT NAPM-Milwaukee:   Survey:  59.0   Actual:  59.0   Prior:62.0

AUDUSD. Watching the technicals as momentum slows Posted: 30 Jun 2011 06:44 AM PDT The AUDUSD has been on a run to the upside over the last few days . The price is showing some signs of slowing today which may be indicative of at least a pause in the trend. The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart has turned sideways and the 200 bar MA on the same chart is flattening. This after a strong run which has seen limited corrective moves.  Keeping the bears at bay, however, is the price has tested the 200 bar MA in early NY session and bounced. The price bounced off that level and moved above the 100 bar MA, but has since dipped back down where it is currently testing the 200 bar again.  IF, the price is to continue to move lower, the price has to move through the 200 bar MA, and the trendline (see chart below) at  the 1.0707 level. Otherwise, the bulls would still be in control.

German Ministry of Finance have received agreement with German banks on a Greek aid program Posted: 30 Jun 2011 06:23 AM PDT German participation around 10 billion Euros. Details of German bank package will be decided in coming days. He is confident an agreement of Finance Ministers will be reached on Sunday on aid to Greece.

USDCHF/EURCHF surge to new day/week highs Posted: 30 Jun 2011 06:17 AM PDT The pair is testing the next target at the 200 hour MA at hte 0.8380 level. A break through this level will next target 0.8412. This is the midpoint of the June trading range.  .  There may be less resistance at the 0.8401 area. The passing of the austerity measures yesterday and likely passage today is leading to liquidation of the safety trade in the CHF it seems. The EURCHF has also moved sharply higher.

Report: Greek opposition will support 22 of 49 Greek Austerity measures Posted: 30 Jun 2011 06:12 AM PDT The ruling party has a majority so it does not imply that any of the measures might be rejected.  What it does mean is that at least 22 will pass with out a hitch.

The vote is ungoing for the Greek Austerity program Posted: 30 Jun 2011 06:10 AM PDT The expectation is the vote will be in pieces…It will not be a single yes or no like yesterday.

Charting the Majors with James Chen – Webinar STARTING SOON at 9:30 AM ET Posted: 30 Jun 2011 06:02 AM PDT Please join us today (Thursday, June 30) at 9:30 AM ET for FXDD’s Charting the Majors with James Chen. This free webinar will feature the current technical outlook on the major currency pairs in an interactive and educational session. Please click here to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/686506385 .

EURUSD tests yesterday’s ceiling at 1.4447 (and other levels) and bounces Posted: 30 Jun 2011 05:50 AM PDT YEsterday, there was a ceiling at the 1.4447 level. Today, the level also corresponds with the 38.2% of the last leg higher for the pair and also is near what is channel trendling support. Holding the level and bouncing off of it keeps the bullish bias in place for the EURUSD. The Implementation vote from the Greece parliament (largely expected to pass) is due in the next half hour or so. The Initial Claims data in the USA continue to disappoint. This – along with Trichet “strongly vigiliance” rhetoric – should keep the EURUSD supported as the US is largely on hold while the ECB is focused on raising rates when they meet again next Thursday. The next hurdle on the upside looks like the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. A move above it, should open the door for a test oof the high for the day.

The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 30 Jun 2011 05:31 AM PDT   In the report, I look at the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, USDCAD.  Be sure to register for webinars today: FXSteet: 11 AM ET, To register: http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=d4f82da9-5eac-412c-a5ea-ab316122f7bc, Thursday Webinar at 4 PM Using FIbo Retracements Part II http://forex.fxdd.com/116254/forex-trading/forex-traders-course-thursday-june-30th-2011-400pm

Canada GDP Slightly Improves Posted: 30 Jun 2011 05:31 AM PDT Gross Domestic Product (MoM):   Survey: -0.1%  Actual: 0.0%   Prior: 0.3   Gross Domestic Product (YoY):  Survey: 2.7%  Actual: 2.8%   Prior: 2.8%  Revised: 2.9%

US Jobless Claims Continue To Grow Higher Posted: 30 Jun 2011 05:30 AM PDT Jobless Claims:  Survey: 420K    Actual: 428K   Prior: 429K    Revised:  420K    Continuing Claims:  Survey: 3690K    Actual:  3702K    Prior: 3697K   Revised: 3714K

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD moves back toward unchanged as situation in Greece remains fluid
• US Pending Home Sales Soar, Best Rate Since November
• Ask the Chartist with James Chen – Webinar ON AIR NOW, 10:00 AM ET
• FXDDAuto Live account training TODAY at 1pm with Oz Golan
• Vote passed by the Greek Parliament
• SNB, ECB, BOC, FED and BOE extend dollar swap arrangements for 1 year
• The vote is looking like a “Yes” for austerity
• Ruling Party Deputy votes against the austerity package. Sends the EURUSD sharply lower on the headline
• Sources: Backers of French Plan feel it will not trigger a credit default swap event
• The Greek vote is expected to start in 20 minutes
• NY Morning Forex Commentary for June 29th 2011
• US Looking For Pending Home Sales To Rise
• Canada CPI 0.7%; better than expected.
• Swiss KOF Barometer (June) comes in at 2.23; as expected.
• ECB’s Stark says Greece cannot expect to always be supported by others.

EURUSD moves back toward unchanged as situation in Greece remains fluid Posted: 29 Jun 2011 07:41 AM PDT With the Greek austerity plan voted on, the next focus will be the rubber stamping of the implimentation (tomorrow) and the EU/IMF funding on Sunday. There is little reason to expect any other outcome. The bond restructuring plan is another can of worms, however, with French Plans coming under more criticism of late. Let’s face it, the situation in Greece is complex with tentacles that extend out. As a result of the uncertainty, one would expect that the EURUSD would come under pressure. However, in order for that to come to fruition, the focus must remain on the hurdles in the EU that lie ahead. The fundamental influence that can reverse the bias would be if a credible solution is found (and/or the market believes it) and if things like the US debt extension has problems. Time is ticking for that so it can override the EU issues if it is allowed to happen. The other thing known is that the risk is increased in these fluid times. As a result, moves like we saw in the EURUSD this morning on the back of 1 vote by a Greek parliamentary member when the EURUSD lost 100 pips in less than a minute, could be more frequent. Be aware. Be prepared. Watch the chart levels. From a technical perspective, the pair tested a trendline on the hourly chart at the 1.4350 level (low since the vote was sealed) and will be the short term level I will be watching today for support. A break of that level should solicit additional selling with the 1.4327 low (was a key ceiling yesterday) being the next key level to eye. If the EURUSD is going to go lower, it must get through these two key levels. Otherwise, the bias today will remain more supportive in the pair.

US Pending Home Sales Soar, Best Rate Since November Posted: 29 Jun 2011 07:03 AM PDT Pending Home Sales (MoM):    Survey:  3.0%    Actual: 8.2%    Prior:  -11.6%    Revised: -11.3 May vs. April 2011 Seasonally Adjusted(MoM%) U.S: 8.2% vs  -11.3% Northeast:  7.3% vs 1.7% Midwest:  10.5% vs -9.4% South:  4.1% vs -17.2% West: 12.9% vs  -8.9% Level Change U.S:  6.7 vs  -10.5 Northeast: 4.7 vs  1.1 Midwest: 7.9 vs -7.8 South:  3.7  vs -19.0 West:  11.5 vs -8.7 Unadjusted (YoY%) Change U.S:  15.5% vs -26.6% Northeast: 8.4% vs -30.8 Midwest: 20.7% vs -28.9% South: 16.0% vs -26.7% West: 14.9% vs -19.9% Level Change U.S:  88.8 vs  82.1 Northeast: 69.2 vs 64.5 Midwest: 82.8  vs 74.9 South: 95.0 vs 91.3 West:  100.6 vs  89.1 Pending Home Sales (YoY):      Actual: 15.5%      Prior:  -26.8   Revised: -26.6

Ask the Chartist with James Chen – Webinar ON AIR NOW, 10:00 AM ET Posted: 29 Jun 2011 06:40 AM PDT Please join us today (Wednesday, June 29) at 10:00 AM ET for FXDD’s Ask the Chartist with James Chen. This free webinar will feature answers to questions from the audience regarding forex trading, technical analysis, and trading strategies. Please click here to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/903338592 .

FXDDAuto Live account training TODAY at 1pm with Oz Golan Posted: 29 Jun 2011 06:15 AM PDT We are hosting an FXDDAuto level 2 training with Oz Golan from Tradency TODAY at 1pm est. This class is for FXDD Live account holders. You must have an active live account with the minimum funded balance to attend. Here is the link to register. https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/370541216  Please email Shawn Powell if you have questions

Vote passed by the Greek Parliament Posted: 29 Jun 2011 06:05 AM PDT The EURUSD has maintained the price below 1.4442 level.

SNB, ECB, BOC, FED and BOE extend dollar swap arrangements for 1 year Posted: 29 Jun 2011 06:01 AM PDT This was expected.

The vote is looking like a “Yes” for austerity Posted: 29 Jun 2011 05:57 AM PDT The EURUSD is back near the highs.

Ruling Party Deputy votes against the austerity package. Sends the EURUSD sharply lower on the headline Posted: 29 Jun 2011 05:46 AM PDT Sends the EURUSD sharply lower. The EURUSD reached a low in the 1.4320 region. The overall vote is very tight with the expectations of a close vote but passing by a few votes. 151 votes for are needed to pass.

Sources: Backers of French Plan feel it will not trigger a credit default swap event Posted: 29 Jun 2011 05:31 AM PDT The markets are concerned that a trigger of default would have repurcussions from off balance sheet products like CDS.

The Greek vote is expected to start in 20 minutes Posted: 29 Jun 2011 05:16 AM PDT This is earlier than expected it seems.   The market risk is increased. Expect increased volatility and perhaps a relief rally on a passage. From there, expect to see more violence in the streets and focus will turn to the next phases including restructuring of the Greek debt.

NY Morning Forex Commentary for June 29th 2011 Posted: 29 Jun 2011 05:08 AM PDT In the morning report, I speak about Greece, the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, and USDCAD.

US Looking For Pending Home Sales To Rise Posted: 29 Jun 2011 04:42 AM PDT

Canada CPI 0.7%; better than expected. Posted: 29 Jun 2011 04:01 AM PDT Core CPI came in at 0.5%; better than the 0.2% forecast and 0.2% prior reading.

Swiss KOF Barometer (June) comes in at 2.23; as expected. Posted: 29 Jun 2011 02:30 AM PDT

ECB’s Stark says Greece cannot expect to always be supported by others. Posted: 29 Jun 2011 01:34 AM PDT Says Greek economy would collapse if there was debt restructuring. Says rejects idea that banks could exchange Greek debt for paper guaranteed by EU states. Brady bond style solution would be a violation of EU no bailout clause. Can’t transfer sovereign debt to other country or Eurozone body.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD pushes through ceiling. Ignites the stops. 1.4383 next target
• USD/CHF Hits New All-Time Low, Continues Bearish Trend
• Rumor: CB Consumer Confidence less than expected
• Report that EU Central Banks selling Gold and buying EURUSD to fund Greek bailout
• EURUSD ceiling pounded again at 1.4327
• US Consumer Confidence Expected Higher
• CaseShiller Home Prices Increase
• Talking Technicals with James Chen – Webinar Today at 12:30 PM ET
• GBPUSD tests 100 hour MA and backs off on first test
• German CPI comes in at 2.3%. This is as expected.
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary for June 28th
• S&P CaseShiller Due at 9AM
• EU Sources: Up to 15 of 91 Eurozone expected to fail EU stress test
• ECB Trichet says Greek adjustment program of utmost importance
• China’s Premeire Wen say Eurozone problems show world economy in state of uncertainty

EURUSD pushes through ceiling. Ignites the stops. 1.4383 next target Posted: 28 Jun 2011 07:25 AM PDT The EURUSD moved through the 1.4327 ceiling and this ignited a move to the upside. The move has reached a high of 1.4368 so far. The next target is the 1.4383 where the midpoint of the June range is found (see chart below). A move above that level targets last weeks high at 1.4410.

USD/CHF Hits New All-Time Low, Continues Bearish Trend Posted: 28 Jun 2011 07:25 AM PDT USD/CHF (daily chart) as of Tuesday (6/28/2011) has hit a new all-time low, breaking down below the previous all-time low of 0.8325 that was just hit in early June. Having dipped below the 0.8300 figure, price action has tentatively confirmed a continuation of the entrenched long-term bearish trend that has been in place for a little over a year now, since the June 2010 high. This bearish trend has displayed very technical characteristics, with regular trend moves to the downside that breakdown key support levels, interspersed with periodic bullish corrections/retracements to key resistance levels. Now that a new all-time low has been established, the directional bias continues to be significantly to the downside. Further bullish retracements notwithstanding, an important bearish target resides around the 0.8000 psychological level. (Click on chart to enlarge. Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics 14,3,3 on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average (SMA) in orange; 100-period SMA in brown; 200-period SMA in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.) James Chen, CTA, CMT Director of Technical Research and Education FXDD

Rumor: CB Consumer Confidence less than expected Posted: 28 Jun 2011 06:33 AM PDT The report is 58.5 vs expectations of 61. The data is not expected until 10 AM. The data may have been leaked early however.   Although this is being reported on news wires, it is unconfirmed. So please do not trade off the news.

Report that EU Central Banks selling Gold and buying EURUSD to fund Greek bailout Posted: 28 Jun 2011 06:30 AM PDT This is the “market talk” that may be a reason for the movement higher in the EURUSD today (along with Trichet comments). Looking at Gold, the price held the 38.2% of the last leg down in the precious metal at the 1503.98 level. This would be bearish from a technical perspective – regardless of the reported trade.  Watch this level for clues from a technical perspective. If the price can stay below, the bias will remain to the downside. On the daily chart, Gold is also below trendline resistance at the 1501.63 level. Staying below this level would also be bearish from a technical perspective.

EURUSD ceiling pounded again at 1.4327 Posted: 28 Jun 2011 06:07 AM PDT The EURUSD has a defined ceiling in place today with teh 1.4328 level providing the resistance/profit taking level. The level is also near the trendline resistance from the daily chart at the 1.4343.   A move above each will likely lead to further upward momentum. The EURUSD is supported this morning despite rioting in the streets in Greece as the government prepares for what is reported as a very close vote tomorrow for increased Greece austerity measures. A failed vote would certainly be perceived as a major setback for the EU and should lead to selling pressure in the pair.  Bond default, funds for bailout from the EU/IMF would come into focus and the danger of each would certainly be an unwelcome development.  Nevertheless, the EURUSD rallied in NY trade.  The driving force?   The pair got a boost this morning after ECB Trichet used the words “strong vigilance” in comments reported on newswires.  The 1.4327 level is key above with a break above 1.4343 opening the door for futher upside momentum.   On the downside, the 1.4311, 1.4292 (high from yesterday),  and then the 100/200 hour MA and 50% of the recent range from 1.4255-715 become the focus.

US Consumer Confidence Expected Higher Posted: 28 Jun 2011 06:06 AM PDT

CaseShiller Home Prices Increase Posted: 28 Jun 2011 06:01 AM PDT S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind:    Actual: 138.84     Prior: 138.16   Revised: 138.16 S&P/CS 20 City (MoM%) SA:    Survey: -0.20%     Actual:  -.09%     Prior: -0.23%     Revised:  -.26% S&P/CS Composite-20 (YOY):   Survey: -3.95%     Actual: -3.96%     Prior: -3.61%    Revised: -3.77%

Talking Technicals with James Chen – Webinar Today at 12:30 PM ET Posted: 28 Jun 2011 05:57 AM PDT Please join us today, Tuesday, June 28 at 12:30 PM ET for FXDD’s Talking Technicals with James Chen. This free webinar will feature a high-probability technical approach to trading in the Forex market — combining Japanese candlesticks with Western technical analysis for a high-probability trading combination. Please click here to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/313842241 .

GBPUSD tests 100 hour MA and backs off on first test Posted: 28 Jun 2011 05:51 AM PDT The GBPUSD has moved higher and the pair has caught up with the 100 hour MA for the first time since the GBPUSD sharp fall low on June 22nd that saw the price move from 1.6261 to the low of 1.5910 earlier today.  In reality, the pair has been consolidating since the 23rd.  The catching up of the 100 hour MA is typically a point where the “market” has to make a decision – Does the price continue to correct higher and move toward the 38.2% retracement next at the 1.6044 level (see chart above) OR Does the trend to the downside continue which would imply a move below the 1.5910-15 low range seen this week.  Decision time for the GBPUSD.

German CPI comes in at 2.3%. This is as expected. Posted: 28 Jun 2011 05:32 AM PDT

The NY Opening Forex Commentary for June 28th Posted: 28 Jun 2011 05:06 AM PDT In the morning report I look at the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, and USDCAD.  Trichet says “Strong Vigilance”, 15 of 91 EU banks reported fail stress test, Greek vote tomorrow, Thursday and then Sunday by EU for funding if all goes well. To hear the report, click on the attached link.

S&P CaseShiller Due at 9AM Posted: 28 Jun 2011 04:56 AM PDT

EU Sources: Up to 15 of 91 Eurozone expected to fail EU stress test Posted: 28 Jun 2011 04:42 AM PDT This is from EU sources. This is supposed to officially be released in Mid July.

ECB Trichet says Greek adjustment program of utmost importance Posted: 28 Jun 2011 04:31 AM PDT ECB in “strong vigilance mode” despite Greek issues. The EURUSD has gotton a pop on the comment

China’s Premeire Wen say Eurozone problems show world economy in state of uncertainty Posted: 28 Jun 2011 04:19 AM PDT He adds that China will extend helping hand to Europe as they have faith in the European economy and that inflation is a global problem.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• The Week Ahead from FXDD
• Personal Income & Spending Lower, PCE Slightly Higher
• NY Morning Forex Commentary for June 27th
• US Personal Income, Spending & Core PCE Due at 8:30AM
• ECB’s Stark on the wires…
• Germany’s Seibert says Germany is working on all fronts to bolster the euro.
• According to EU sources, French plan to roll over Greek debt is being discussed by EU officials with IIF.
• Sarkozy says cutting spending alone won’t solve Greece’s problems.
• EUR/$ approaching 1.4200 handle.
• German Deputy Finance Minister Asmussen on the wires….
• The Greek finance ministry is considering calling an amnesty for people with unpaid back taxes from 2010 to recouop part of the lost revenue.
• Moody’s says continued deposit outflows are credit negative for Greek banks.
• 6-27 Calender
• Kiwi Trade Balance – Worse

The Week Ahead from FXDD Posted: 27 Jun 2011 06:10 AM PDT

Personal Income & Spending Lower, PCE Slightly Higher Posted: 27 Jun 2011 05:32 AM PDT Personal Income:   Survey: 0.4%     Actual:  0.3% Prior: 0.4%   Revised: 0.3% May vs. April 2011 Personal Income:  0.3% vs 0.3% Compensation:  0.2% vs 0.4% Wage & Salary:  0.2% vs 0.4% Disposable Inc:  0.2% vs 0.2% Personal Spending:   Survey: 0.1%    Actual: 0.0% Prior: 0.4% PCE Core(MoM):     Survey: 0.2% Actual:  0.3% Prior: 0.2% PCE Core(YoY):    Survey:  1.1% Actual:  1.2% Prior:  1.0% PCE Deflator:    Survey: 2.5% Actual:  2.5% Prior: 2.2%

NY Morning Forex Commentary for June 27th Posted: 27 Jun 2011 05:14 AM PDT

US Personal Income, Spending & Core PCE Due at 8:30AM Posted: 27 Jun 2011 04:17 AM PDT

ECB’s Stark on the wires… Posted: 27 Jun 2011 03:39 AM PDT ECB is very vigilant and will do all to preserve stability of the euro. Greek restructuring would threaten solvency of Greek banks, impact of Eurozone financial markets, lead to sell off in other sovereign bonds. Quick and full implementation of EU/IMF program is best way forward for crisis hit countries. Greek debt restructuring could eclipse the impact of the Lehman insolvency. ECB rejects any solution that involves credit event, rating cut to selective default or lower PSI. Will continue to pursue stability oriented policy for all of the Eurozone, and preserve its independence. EU commission says all Eurozone officials, including commission experts are attending Rome meeting on Greek crisis.

Germany’s Seibert says Germany is working on all fronts to bolster the euro. Posted: 27 Jun 2011 03:21 AM PDT

According to EU sources, French plan to roll over Greek debt is being discussed by EU officials with IIF. Posted: 27 Jun 2011 03:20 AM PDT

Sarkozy says cutting spending alone won’t solve Greece’s problems. Posted: 27 Jun 2011 02:14 AM PDT

EUR/$ approaching 1.4200 handle. Posted: 27 Jun 2011 02:12 AM PDT The euro is recouping losses from last Friday, after the currency weakened against the USD following better than expected GDP data out of the United States. With no data releases to start the week, we are seeing some choppy trading in the European currencies. In the last hour we have seen the EUR/USD move higher through the 100 hour moving average and 38.2% line (on the move from Friday’s high to today’s low). Our next target higher is 1.42035 where we find the 50.0% retracement line and 200 hour moving average.

German Deputy Finance Minister Asmussen on the wires…. Posted: 27 Jun 2011 02:02 AM PDT Eurozone is prepared for future sovereign debt crisis through rescue mechanisms. ESM is very close to idea of European currency fund. Greek austerity measures so far deserve respect; however Greece still needs to do more. Euro is in danger of losing legitimacy. Eurozone crisis management can buy time to answer fundamental questions on Europe. Must be prepared for losing Greed parliamentary vote on reforms. Bondholder role in Greek aid must be voluntary, wants as much as possible from private sector. Detb crisis is not a currency crisis. Budget situation is better than in Japan and US. We are on the way to a global multipolar currency system.

The Greek finance ministry is considering calling an amnesty for people with unpaid back taxes from 2010 to recouop part of the lost revenue. Posted: 27 Jun 2011 12:17 AM PDT

Moody’s says continued deposit outflows are credit negative for Greek banks. Posted: 26 Jun 2011 11:08 PM PDT Outflows could cause a severe cash shortage if they increased beyond 35% of deposits within a short period of time.

6-27 Calender Posted: 26 Jun 2011 09:18 PM PDT

Kiwi Trade Balance – Worse Posted: 26 Jun 2011 04:09 PM PDT The New Zealand Trade Balance reading came in ~40% below expectations at 605M surplus vs. the 1B survey. Rising imports +4.021B (expected 3.75B)  beat shrinking exports of 4.626B (4.725B expected) causing the disappointing release which pushed the NZD/USD to session lows as it holds the 80 cent handle for now as we see the USD firming across the board. The pair has found support early in Asia at the trending 21 day moving average.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Friday Wrap up 12:30pm with Shawn Powell & Jason Galano
• The Week Ahead in Forex 9:30am Monday
• Talking Technicals with James Chen – Webinar on Tuesday, June 28 at 12:30 PM ET
• FDIC Chairman Bair Comments at National Press Club
• USD/CHF Remains Bearish Near All-Time Lows
• ECB’s Stark on the Wires
• FXDDAuto Live account training Wednesday June 29th 2011 1pm
• EUR/USD Drops to Trendline Support

Friday Wrap up 12:30pm with Shawn Powell & Jason Galano Posted: 24 Jun 2011 01:57 PM PDT Friday Forex Wrap up 12:30pm with Shawn Powell & Jason Galano – Register now

The Week Ahead in Forex 9:30am Monday Posted: 24 Jun 2011 01:52 PM PDT The Week Ahead in Forex  9:30am  Bill Lawless, FXDD Chief Marketing Officer & Greg Michalowski, FXDD Chief Currency Analyst look at the week ahead in Forex trading   >> REGISTER NOW

Talking Technicals with James Chen – Webinar on Tuesday, June 28 at 12:30 PM ET Posted: 24 Jun 2011 01:08 PM PDT Please join us on Tuesday, June 28 at 12:30 PM ET for FXDD’s Talking Technicals with James Chen. This free webinar will feature a high-probability technical approach to trading in the Forex market. Please click here to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/313842241 .

FDIC Chairman Bair Comments at National Press Club Posted: 24 Jun 2011 11:20 AM PDT Says: Retained earnings enough to meetbasel III Banks have capacity to lend Capital standards are the same as before the crisis Banks are risk averse and borrower demand is low Governments need courage to resolve crisis Greek debt may need to be restructured FDIC favors setting high bar for bank capital levels The size of the housing market needs to shrink ‘Housing market became too big a part of our economy’ Derivatives oversight key part of dood-frank rulemaking Credit default swap market remains ‘too opaque’ Its in bank interest to work with regulators Banks should rein in lobbyists and industry groups Continuing

USD/CHF Remains Bearish Near All-Time Lows Posted: 24 Jun 2011 10:25 AM PDT USD/CHF (daily chart) as of Friday (6/24/2011) has continued to consolidate near the all-time low of 0.8325 that was just established earlier this month. This occurs within the context of a long-term, medium-term, as well as short-term bearish trend that has been displaying strong technical characteristics. The most recent short-term bearish leg initiated when the important 0.8550 level, which was key prior support, held strong as current resistance. Now re-testing the all-time low, price is at a critical juncture. A breakdown below this low, which would confirm a long-term downtrend continuation, could target key psychological support, in uncharted territory, around the 0.8000 level. In the event that the all-time low is respected with a bounce and bullish retracement, the noted 0.8550 price region should continue to serve as resistance, followed closely to the upside by the key downtrend resistance line that extends back to the June 2010 high. (Click on chart to enlarge. Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics 14,3,3 on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average (SMA) in orange; 100-period SMA in brown; 200-period SMA in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.) James Chen, CTA, CMT Director of Technical Research and Education FXDD

ECB’s Stark on the Wires Posted: 24 Jun 2011 08:55 AM PDT Says: Bailout is ‘final chance’ for Greece Support programs cant continue indefinitely If conditions not met, no more aide for Greece ECB cant accept Greek bonds cut to default rating Nationality plays no role for executive board members Important that no political influence on board members

FXDDAuto Live account training Wednesday June 29th 2011 1pm Posted: 24 Jun 2011 07:31 AM PDT We are hosting an FXDDAuto level 2 training with Oz Golan from Tradency on Wednesday June 29th 2011 at 1pm est. This class is for FXDD Live account holders. You must have an active live account with the minimum funded amount to attend. Here is the link to register. https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/370541216  Please email Shawn Powell if you have questions

EUR/USD Drops to Trendline Support Posted: 24 Jun 2011 07:12 AM PDT EUR/USD (daily chart) as of Friday (6/24/2011) has dropped down to the dynamic support provided by a bullish support trendline extending back to the mid-February low. The current bearishness occurs after price action failed to make further gains and fell from its 1.4440 high in the middle of the week. Currently the pair has fallen to trendline support and continues to carry an overall bearish bias. In the event of a breakdown below this trendline, further downside momentum has a clear downside target around the key 1.4000 psychological support/resistance level. (Click on chart to enlarge. Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics 14,3,3 on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average (SMA) in orange; 100-period SMA in brown; 200-period SMA in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.) James Chen, CTA, CMT Director of Technical Research and Education FXDD

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