Swim The Forex: June 2012

Friday, June 29, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-June.29.2012

Posted: 29 Jun 2012 05:56 AM PDT

Good Morning:

EU summit after EU summit-nothing gets done-
BUT- this one actually came through with some results.
EU leaders have agreed to take emergency action to lower Italy and Spain’s borrowing costs.
Bond buying mechanism
Euro growth package

European bond yields fall after the news-while German bunds moved a bit higher in yield.

World equity markets rallied on the news-and US Futures are up big!

Oil higher (over $81 bbl)
Gold & silver are also higher

HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

Thursday, June 28, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-June.28.2012

Posted: 28 Jun 2012 06:29 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Most market participants are not expecting any worthwhile deal being produced from this week’s EU summit.
French President Hollande is looking for a long term solution to the EU’s problem, and also looking for a short term solution to the crisis.
He will probably get neither-but remember this is his first “party” with the rest of the EU leaders.

News that the losses from JP Morgan’s trading may rise to $9 billion are hurting JPM’s stock price-down 3% in European trading. This is also putting pressure on Jamie Dimon’s credibility in the marketplace.

US Q1 GDP at 1.9%-as expected.
US Jobless claims fall by 6k to 386k.

Asian equity markets were mixed -Europe and US Futures are lower.
Gold,Silver and Oil are all lower.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-June.27.2012

Posted: 27 Jun 2012 05:31 AM PDT

Good Morning:

The markets are on a holding pattern ahead of the EU summit planned for Thursday & Friday of this week.

Part of the conversation that will take place at the summit will include extending Greece’s timeline for getting their budget in order.
I am sure that if the EU agrees to an extension-then it is inevitable that the EU will demand more austerity measures from Greece.
News from Greece that they are expecting the economy to contract by over 9% in Q3 are adding to their woes.

Spain’s Finance Minister is looking to have all goods and services taxed at the current 18% VAT.
This would certainly hamper consumer spending and growth prospects.
Spain is also realizing that they must start financing themselves in the international markets-and not just rely on their domestic funding.

Asian equity markets were higher-as are Europe’s and US Futures.

WTI oil is up-but still under $80/bbl.
Gold and Silver are lower.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Monday, June 25, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-June.25.2012

Posted: 25 Jun 2012 05:15 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Oh Well- another European Summit is scheduled for this week-which will keep the markets interest for the week ahead. Once again- markets are hopeful that this summit will actually lead to some meaningful progress- BUT like all the other European Summits in the past- no meaningful changes will take place within the 48 hour summit.
Europe needs to fix things NOW-and they continue to just talk-getting no where fast. It looks like the market is taking precautionary measures of their own-and are starting to take some risk off the table today.

Spain formally requested the European aid package for the banking sector.
Fitch downgrades Cyprus to BB+ from BBB–outlook negative.
Italian and Spanish 10 year bond yields higher.

Euro lower-upper 1.24 handle level versus USD.

Asian/European and US Futures are all lower.

Oil lower- Gold and Silver higher.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbyscorner-Open Market-June.20.2012

Posted: 20 Jun 2012 05:43 AM PDT

Good Morning;

Markets are on hold-as we await the FOMC announcement later this afternoon.
The G-20 meeting is concluding-with members agreeing to European plans to integrate their banking industry, along with a closer economic union (haven’t we heard that before).
We should have a 3-party coolition agreement in Greece by days end.
The Greek’s have announced that Vassillis Rapanos, currently Chairman of the National Bank of Greece,
will be named as Finiance Minister (he must of picked the short straw).

The UK-MPC minutes were released and they voted 5-4 to keep QE stable, and 9-0 to keep interest rates on hold.

Asian equity markets were higher, European equity markets are mixed. US Futures are higher too.
Oil is higher-Gold is lower.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-June.19.2012

Posted: 19 Jun 2012 05:21 AM PDT

Good Morning:

It looks like we may see a coalition government getting set up in Greece in the next few days.

BUT-There are many more important things for the markets to keep an eye on:
We have the FOMC meeting stating today.
First audit results for Spanish banks
Bank of England’s first (liquidity adding) cash tender today- (results about 10 AM EST)
G20 meeting continues- There is some talk about disappointment with the G20 that might hurt European sentiment, but I can't believe that any reasonable person expected the G20 to come to the rescue.

In other European news:
German ZEW survey was very disappointing -16.9 in June from +10.8 in May. Much worse than expected.
2nd Spanish bank audit delayed until September from July
Italian and Spanish 10 year yields are a touch softer today- but Spain is still over 7%.

Asian equity markets were lower-Europe is mostly higher-and US Futures are also higher at this time.

Gold, Silver and Oil are all higher.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Monday, June 18, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-June.18.2012

Posted: 18 Jun 2012 05:33 AM PDT

Good Morning:

The election in Greece has propelled the New Democracy party as the clear winner.
It will take Greece weeks to form a government-and I do hope that it is a coalition that will stay together.
As the New Democracy party is pro-bailout-pro euro-pro austerity-the markets took a breather. The Euro was higher-as were equity markets.

The euphoria was short lived-as the Euro lost ground-as did most equity markets.
Asian equity markets were higher-Europe equities started in positive territory-but are now losing ground-and are mixed.
US Futures are now lower also. Gold, oil and silver are all lower.

The overall problems do not go away:
Greece’s economy is in a tailspin
10 year Spanish bond yields hit a all time euro era high of 7.16%-while the spread to bunds is 574 bps.
Itialian bonds are also showing higher yields.
Portugal’s Economic Minister comments that the Portuguese economy has a liquidity problem.
Ireland is discussing extending their repayment scedule to 30 years from 15 years.

These issues and many more will just not go away anytime soon.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Friday, June 15, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-June.15.2012

Posted: 15 Jun 2012 05:44 AM PDT

Good Morning:

FX markets are fairly stable ahead of this weekends election in Greece.
Not too many player are looking to put their feet in the water ahead of the results.
We should start seeing some results at about 2 or 3 PM (EST) this Sunday.

There are also regional elections being held in France-and it will be interesting to see if President Holland’s Socialists will win a clear majority.

Rumors in the markets are that Central bank will work together to stem any liquidity or adverse marketplace reactions to the Greek elections.

This is a fundamental move-throw out the technicals this weekend.

Asian and European equity markets are all higher-along with US Futures.

Gold and Silver are higher
Oil is also higher this morning-just over $84/bbl

HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

Thursday, June 14, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-June.14.2012

Posted: 14 Jun 2012 05:21 AM PDT

Good Morning;

Markets are getting nervous as we get closer to the Greek elections this weekend. Rumors have the pro-bailout parties as favorites.

In other European news:

Moody’s cut Spain’s rating 3 notches to Baa3 (one notch above junk)-as increased debt, a weak economy, soring unemployment and
a loss of access to capital markets lead to the downgrade.
10 year Spanish bonds yields hit the magic 7% level.
Greek Q1 unemployment hit 22.6%-up from 20.7% in Q4.

The Swiss National Bank said that due to the European debt crisis-they told Credit Suisse to markedly increase it’s capital base.
The SNB also recommend that UBS do the same.
The SNB will also continue to enforce their 1.20 peg to the euro.

Asian equity markets were mostly lower-as is Europe. Us Futures are flat.

Oil is flat-ahead of today’s OPEC meeting in Vienna
Gold is up-Silver down

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-June.13.2012

Posted: 13 Jun 2012 05:26 AM PDT

Good Morning:

A bit of a non event morning -so far……………

Greek banks have seen an unprecedented outflow of euros:
Larger Greek banks have seen combined daily outflows between 500 and 800 mln euros
Smaller Greek banks have seen daily outflows of 10-30 mln euros

Cyprus central bank governor looks for best possible borrowing conditions, but declines comment on if and when Cyprus will apply for aid.

French Industry Minister: France is in an "economic emergency situation:
French economy is hardly growing
900 plants have closed in the last 3 years
Possible government support for auto industry
Need to boost growth

I left Spain and Italy out of the equation today-as France and Cyprus add a new dimension to the crisis.

Asian equity markets were mostly higher, and Europe is mostly lower.US Futures are also lower at this time.

Oil is lower-as is Gold and silver

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-June.12.2012

Posted: 12 Jun 2012 05:17 AM PDT

Good Morning:

The euphoria from the Spanish bank bailout was short lived, as I predicted it would be, but it was shorter than I expected.
I thought that we may be able to get a few days of positive sentiment from the “bailout” announcement.

Markets have been much calmer today.

Comments from Fitch Rating regarding Spain in particular, and Europe in general:
Spain will “significantly” miss their budget target for 2012 and 2013.
Greece’s future is unclear.
European leaders are unable to get a handle on the debt crisis, and continue to make mistakes and “knee jerk” reactions instead of solid decisions.

These issues continue to plague the region, and will continue to hurt Sovereign ratings in Europe, and cannot be positive for the overall future of the Euro and the Euro Zone economies.

Regarding the Spanish bank bailout:
There is word that the 100 billion euros will be insufficient, as some feel the figure should be closer to 200 billion euros.
Also- Spanish officials had been adamant that they would not need a bailout-and that was just last week-so there was no plan of action.

Asian equity markets were lower-European markets are higher-as are US Futures.

Oil is lower-as is Gold and Silver.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOO LUCK

Monday, June 11, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-June.11.2012

Posted: 11 Jun 2012 05:39 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Spain is on center stage-as the EU agreed to a 100 billion euro bailout for Spain’s banks.
Spain requested help on Saturday, and the EU came up with the plan.
Spain is calling the deal a credit agreement-not a rescue. Semantics aside-this is a bailout for the Spanish banks.
As the markets generally do- they are optimistic on this news (as they were after the bailout of Greece,Portugal and Greece 2), and euphoria reigns the marketplace.
The problem is that nothing has changed in Spain- stagnant economy, rampant unemployment, and high public debt at an unsustainable level.
They have been given a band aid to stop the bleeding-and it will only hold for a short period of time.
In the past, the markets have rallied on bailout news, only to quickly reverse themselves once “reality” sets in.
Remember this next month-when the markets reverse themselves.

We will see the specific details of the “bailout” in the next few days-as there has been no austerity conditions or monitoring of the economy, which were forced on Ireland and Greece when they were offered their bailout programs.

World equity markets and US Futures are all higher-as the euphoria is still in the air.
Gold, Oil and Silver are all higher.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Friday, June 8, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-June.8.2012

Posted: 08 Jun 2012 05:27 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Risk off Friday!

Well-the optimistic mind set that the markets were showing has been eroded in a short 36 hours.

While market participants, (and I include all instruments), were anticipating the prospect of global stimulus and additional monetary easing policy have been disappointed.
The ECB, BOE, and in particular the Fed all refrained from acting or even making reassuring statements to the markets.
So- as Central Bankers love to do-they will wait and see what happens.
Unfortunately-we can all write what the outcome will be-as they continue to do nothing-and the results will most probably not be pretty.

China’s surprise mid week rate cut was initially met with optimism-but if you read between the lines-they must be concerned about the
changing face of the Chinese economy.

Asian equity markets were lower-European equity markets are also lower-as are US Futures.

Oil, Gold and Silver are all lower.

HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

Thursday, June 7, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-June.7.2012

Posted: 07 Jun 2012 06:02 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Risk is back on the table today-as market participants are looking for a sign that the world’s Central banks will be looking to add some stimulus into the marketplace.

The Bank of England left interest rates unchanged-as was highly expected. If they decide to add some additional QE-we will hear about it later.

Some employment data out of Europe:
French Q1 jobless rises to 10% from 9.8%-Q4
Greek jobless: 21.9% from 21.4%
Irish jobless: rises to 14.8% from 14.5%

France auction results were very well received-with very good rates

Spain-good auction-but they paid the price:
2 year yield: 4.335% from 3.463%
4 year yield: 5.353% from 4.319%
10 year yield: 6.044% from 5.743%

Asian equity markets were higher
Europe and US Futures are all in positive territory

Oil is also higher today
Gold and Silver are all lower

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-June.6.2012

Posted: 06 Jun 2012 05:54 AM PDT

Good Morning:

As expected the ECB left interest rates steady at 1%.
ECB President Draghi has commented after the rate decision:
Growth remains weak within the Euro Zone
Continue refinancing procedures
Money spigots to be left wide open

Greek tourism revenue is expected to drop by 10-15% this year.
The drachma would bring 50% discounts on holiday travel-let’s pack the suitcases!!

The Fed releases their Beige Book this afternoon-which is an overall view of the US economy.

Asian equity markets were higher-as is Europe-and US Futures.

Oil is higher
Gold and Silver are also higher.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-June 5.2012

Posted: 05 Jun 2012 05:37 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Markets continue to be illiquid as the Queen’s Jubilee celebration continues.

The RBA, (Reserve Bank of Australia), lowered their benchmark interest rate by 25 bps to 3.5%. This move was highly anticipated, and had little overall impact on the Aussie and the overall FX markets in general. The RBA stated that the move was in response to continued problems in Europe and the potential slowdown of growth in China.

Weak data from the Euro Zone was not helpful for the markets either.
G-7 finance chiefs to hold emergency conference call-who knows?
Euro zone May PMI 46.7 better than the 46.5 flash read
Euro zone April retail sales -1.0% -2.5% y/y
German April Mfg orders -1.9% from forecast of -1%-March revised higher

Asian and European equity markets are mostly higher-as are US Futures
Oil is a touch softer @ $83.27/bbl
Gold & Silver are stronger.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Monday, June 4, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-June.4.2012

Posted: 04 Jun 2012 05:30 AM PDT

Good Morning:

We start the week out on a quiet note.

The UK is away for the next 2 days-as the country celebrates Queen Elizabeth’s Jubilee Celebration.

Portugal’s rising unemployment rate is causing concerns in the Euro Zone.
Spain’s May jobless -.63% (this is not a big move-but a move in the right direction anyway).
Spain/German 10 year bond spreads down marginally to 523 bps from 528
Italian/German 10 year bond spreads down to 454 from 467

With a barren US economic calender today-markets will be taking a cue from the equity world.

Asian equity markets were lower-Europe is gaining and US Futures are in positive territory.

Oil, Gold and Silver are all lower.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Friday, June 29, 2012

Thursday, June 28, 2012

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Monday, June 25, 2012

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Tuesday, June 19, 2012

Monday, June 18, 2012

Friday, June 15, 2012

Thursday, June 14, 2012

Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Tuesday, June 12, 2012

Monday, June 11, 2012

Friday, June 8, 2012

Thursday, June 7, 2012

Wednesday, June 6, 2012

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

Monday, June 4, 2012

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