Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• USDCHF moves above trendline resistance but backs off. Tests again with upside target 1.0719 on a break
• Sept 4 2009 Forex Market Update - US Non Farms data
• USDCHF moves toward trendline resistance
• EURUSD moves down toward trendline support
• USDJPY has the wild ride after the number
• US Employment Report mixed with revisions. Unemployment Rate rises to 9.7% however
• A technical look at some of the major currency pairs
• Preview of the August US Unemployment Report
• Canadian Unemployment better than expected. USDCAD moves below 200 hour MA.
• Swiss CPI
• Trichet speaking at ECB Watchers conference
• 9-4 Economic Calendar
• A Preview of the US Unemployment Report for August
• Fed Fisher Comments Give the USD a Bid
• Fed Governor Fisher on the Wire

USDCHF moves above trendline resistance but backs off. Tests again with upside target 1.0719 on a break Posted: 04 Sep 2009 06:32 AM PDT The USDCHF has moved above the key trendline at the 1.0685 moving to a high of 1.0698 on Stops. The pair has moved lower since but is back testing the key trendline again.  A move back above should solicit additional buying in the pair with a target at 1.0719 (the 38.2% retracement level).  Look for support at the 1.0659 level (38.2% of the days range).

Sept 4 2009 Forex Market Update - US Non Farms data Posted: 04 Sep 2009 06:30 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. A very exciting day in the Forex with lots of activity. Watch the video for information on the US Employment picture. Thanks for all of your comments and feedback.

USDCHF moves toward trendline resistance Posted: 04 Sep 2009 06:00 AM PDT The USDCHF is approaching upside resistance at the 1.0682 level. This trendline comes down from the high on August 10th. Looking for some resistance at the level.

EURUSD moves down toward trendline support Posted: 04 Sep 2009 05:55 AM PDT The trendline support comes in at the 1.4205 area.  Look for support against this level.

USDJPY has the wild ride after the number Posted: 04 Sep 2009 05:42 AM PDT The pair tests support at 92.39 and the upside resistance at the 200 hour MA at the 93.26 level.  The price has come  down after testing the 93.26 level.

US Employment Report mixed with revisions. Unemployment Rate rises to 9.7% however Posted: 04 Sep 2009 05:31 AM PDT NFP for Aug  -217K   vs 230K expectation.  Revision  -276K vs -247K Unemployment Rate 9.7 % vs expectation of 9.5% (last 9.4%) Work Week 33.1 hours (as expected) Hourly Wages +0.3% MoM, 2.6 % YoY 6.9 million people have lost their jobs since the start of the job recession.

A technical look at some of the major currency pairs Posted: 04 Sep 2009 04:43 AM PDT The Unemployment number is due at 8:30. It can lead to volatile market conditions.  As a result risk is increased. Increased risk suggests a paring of positions to account for the increased risk and volatility.  Below is a current look at the major currency pairs along with some key support and resistance levels.   These levels can be used as guides for possible trading levels after the number is released.  Please note it is a holiday weekend, so there may be some added volatility up to when London goes home at around 12 noon.  However, holiday trading conditions this afternoon may prevail which could either mean quiet markets or choppy trading conditions.  Once again this increased uncertainty raises trading risk. Good luck. EURUSD Support comes in at 1.4236/42 where the 61.8% retracement and lows from yesterday and today are located.  The next support comes in at 1.4205 (trendline and lows) and 1.4177.  Topside resistance come in at 1.4313 and then trendline resistance at the 1.4341. USDJPY  The price was able to move above the 100 hour MA today at the 92.72 level. However the price remains below the 200 hour MA at the 93.27 level.   A move above this level should confirm a more bullish move today. On the downside, watch the 92.39 level.  This was the low close back in July. A move below this level should lead toward the low from yesterday at 91.94. GBPUSD GBPUSD held the 1.6298 support level overnight (38.2% retracement and low area from yesterday and today.  A move below this level should target the 1.6263 level where the Fibonacci Retracement and 100 and 200 hour MA are converging.  This is a key level to watch. A break should lead to lower levels for the pair.  On the upside the high from yesterday at 1.6412 will be eyed.   1.6427 is also upside resistance.   USDCHF The USDCHF is trading at the 100 and 200 hour moving average level.  This normally leads to a move away from the level.  A move below the this area (1.0615) should lead to yet another test of the 1.0531 to 1.0552 support level (lows for 2009).  The market may look to pause at 1.0566 where there are some low prices the market is likely to “remember”.   On the topside, the 1.0645 level and the 1.0682 trendline (going back to the high on August 10th) are key levels today.

Preview of the August US Unemployment Report Posted: 04 Sep 2009 04:16 AM PDT Click on the following link to access a preview of the August US Unemployment Report.  Note: There is a file embedded within this post, please visit this post to download the file.

Canadian Unemployment better than expected. USDCAD moves below 200 hour MA. Posted: 04 Sep 2009 04:04 AM PDT The Canadian Unemployment rate rises to 8.7% vs 8.8% expectation and 8.6% last month The Net Change in Employment is stronger, however,  at +27.1K jobs versus expectation of a decline of -15.0K.  Last month the Net Change in Employment showed a loss of 44.5. Note however that the change was all Part time Employers.  Although this may be a harbinger for future gains - as employers are still reluctant to hire full time - it may imply the data is not as strong as expectations.  Also, when the Canada Employment report is released on the same day of the US Report, the activity tends to slow down until the US report is released.   Overall a better then expected number.  The USDCAD has fallen below the 200 hour MA on the report at the 1.0950 level. This will now be resistance.  The suppport comes in at 1.0911 trendline (see chart above).

Swiss CPI Posted: 04 Sep 2009 12:17 AM PDT Swiss CPI m/m came in at 0.1%, weaker than the 0.2% expected. Y/y came in at -0.8%, weaker than the -0.7% expected.   Eur/Chf and Usd/Chf relatively unchanged trading at 1.5145 and 1.0601 respectively.

Trichet speaking at ECB Watchers conference Posted: 04 Sep 2009 12:10 AM PDT ECB’s Trichet is commenting at Watchers conference in Frankfort. He is reiterating statements made after yesterdays rate decision. Thus far no market effect from his commentary. He goes on to say the following; *Sees increasing signs of economic stabilization, too soon to call for end of economic crisis as uncertainty remains high *Recovery to be uneven *Exit strategy does not include interest rate considerations ; ECB has exit strategy and ready to put into action when time comes Eur/Usd trading close to session high at 1.4285.

9-4 Economic Calendar Posted: 03 Sep 2009 09:41 PM PDT

A Preview of the US Unemployment Report for August Posted: 03 Sep 2009 08:24 PM PDT For a detailed preview of the US Unemployment Repot click on the following link (PDF format). Note: There is a file embedded within this post, please visit this post to download the file. Thank you for choosing FXDD. Greg Michalowski

Fed Fisher Comments Give the USD a Bid Posted: 03 Sep 2009 06:34 PM PDT The USD which has been under pressure from yesterday and that continued today following worse that expected Initial Claims numbers (revised worse as well), has caught a light big following the Fed’s Fishers comments (see prior post.) On the chart below you can see the Kiwi which was pushing up against the USD hit the 100hr moving average and pushed lower on the Fishers comments. We also see the AUD/USD moving lower, possible finding some support at the 200 hr moving average ahead of the US Non-Farm Payroll and the last full day of summer.

Fed Governor Fisher on the Wire Posted: 03 Sep 2009 06:09 PM PDT The Dallas Fed President Fisher had the following comments: Non-residential fixed investment may be growing. “Drag from residential investment” may have ended. “Financial headwinds” will take years to ease. A prolonged period of “sluggish” economy is likely. The “worst” may be over for household consumption. He also sees a “slow crawl out of purgatory” for household spending. The worst may be over for consumption. Financial markets still have a long way to go before they are back to normal. The major challenge is to spur growth while stabilizing debt. Job growth to be muted by tight budgets. Risk to price stability is deflation, not inflation. Inflation is being pressured downward by companies’ lack of pricing power. Need less money and labor dedicated to construction and finance. He reiterated that the Fed won’t monetize the national debt. It will be some time before we see net job creation. He believes a positive yield curve is a healthy thing. The only way to have sustainable economi growth is to allow private genius. The US interest rate is lower because of the Fed’s buying programs. He sees no reason to halt MBS buying program before the cap is reached. He is “praying” that the jobless rate does not hit 10%. Sees snapback effect but then slow rate of growth going forward.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• ECB Stark on the newswires
• ISM Non Manufacturing comes in at 48.4 Higher than expected
• Trichets comments takes the wind out of the EURUSD overnight gains
• GBPUSD tests its support level at 1.6340
• Sept 3 2009 Forex Market Update
• EURUSD moves lower after Trichet says recovery will be uneven
• Trichet comments on the newswires
• GBPUSD moves steadily higher after breaking back above key MAs
• Jobless Claims due out at 8:30 AM. ISM Non Manufacturing due at 10:00 AM
• ECB Rate Decision due at 7:45 AM. No change expected.
• OECD positive commnets on world economy
• Eurozone retail sales
• UK PMI Services
• Eurozone PMI
• 8-3 Economic Calendar

ECB Stark on the newswires Posted: 03 Sep 2009 07:16 AM PDT  EXPECTS ECONOMIC RECOVERY NEXT YEAR  QUARTERLY GDP RATES TO REMAIN AROUND ZERO ONE SHOULDN’T OVER-INTERPRETE MONTHLY DATA BUMPY ROAD AHEAD FOR ECONOMY FREE FALL OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY HAS STOPPED LATEST DATA SEEM TO SHOW WORST IS OVER

ISM Non Manufacturing comes in at 48.4 Higher than expected Posted: 03 Sep 2009 07:02 AM PDT BACKLOGS INDEX 41.0 AFTER 42.0 PRICES INDEX 63.1 AFTER 41.3 INVENTORY INDEX 43.0 AFTER 47.0 EMPLOYMENT INDEX 43.5 AFTER 41.5 ORDERS INDEX 49.9 AFTER 48.1 BUSINESS ACTIVITY AT 51.3 VS 46.1 Higher prices led the gain higher.  Backlog order down to 41 from 42.  Employment moves a touch higher to 43.5 from 41.5.

Trichets comments takes the wind out of the EURUSD overnight gains Posted: 03 Sep 2009 06:55 AM PDT ALthough what Trichet said was par for the course, perhaps he was a bit more sanguine about the prospects for the economy.  Perhaps he was more concerned about the level of the EURO which has been a bit more supported of late  (against the dollar at least).  In any case, the EURUSD took Trichets words as being more Euro bearish and the market reversed lower after testing trendline resistance (from Aug 27th high on hourly chart). The pair has now moved back below the 100 and 200 hour MA currently at the 1.4288 and 1.4292 levels respectively  (green and blue lines in the chart above). The break led to a move down to the 1.4275 low for the day.  The close from yesterday comes in at the 1.4264 level this is also where the midpoint of the last move higher comes in today.  This is the next downside target. On the upside,  there is now resistance at the 1.4313/18 level.  We are at a point of transition currently as the market waffles around the moving averages we watch (100 and 200 hour MA).   The trading becomes buy above and sell below. Confirmation of the direction will come on moves above 1.4313/18 or on a move below 1.4264 close from yesterday.  Be aware.

GBPUSD tests its support level at 1.6340 Posted: 03 Sep 2009 06:37 AM PDT The GBPUSD is down testing support at the 1.6340 to 1.6343 level where the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (see blue line above) and the 38.2% retracement level of the days range are both found.  SO far the support has held. I would look for buyers with stops on a move below. A break should lead to  a move toward 1.6303.  The markets are volatile as Trichet comments reversed the EURUSD and has dragged the GBPUSD down with it.   Watch the key level.

Sept 3 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 03 Sep 2009 06:30 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. A volatile day in the Forex for certain. Watch the video today to make some sense of it.

EURUSD moves lower after Trichet says recovery will be uneven Posted: 03 Sep 2009 05:39 AM PDT The pair is testing support at the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart.  The level comes in at the 1.4297 (blue line in the chart above).  Additional support comes in at 1.4283 where the 200 bar MA (green line) and 38.2% retracement support are both found. Watch these levels.  A move back above the 1.4313/18 level (see prior post for chart) will confirm the downside move is complete.  Expect to see sellers against the level initally however.

Trichet comments on the newswires Posted: 03 Sep 2009 05:36 AM PDT  ECB RATES ARE APPROPRIATE  INFLATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUBDUED  NO SPREAD TO BE APPLIED TO SEPT 12-MONTH REFI NEXT 12-MONTH REFI WILL HAVE BENCHMARK RATE ECB RATES ARE APPROPRIATE  INFLATION EXPECTATIONS FIRMLY ANCHORED  ECONOMY WILL SHOW PERIOD OF STABILIZATION  SLOW INFLATION TO SUPPORT PURCHASING POWER  INVENTORY CYCLE WILL CONTRIBUTE IN POSITIVE  UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH, CAUTION WARRANTED  ECONOMY WILL BENEFIT FROM STIMULUS MEASURES  RECOVERY MAY BE UNEVEN

GBPUSD moves steadily higher after breaking back above key MAs Posted: 03 Sep 2009 05:29 AM PDT The GPBUSD continued its upward momentum started from yesterday’s trade. Initially, the GBPUSD sold off and then started a sharp rebound to the upside.  The pair fell below the 100 hour MA at the 1.6346 level. The move below the MA led to a new  low at the 1.6236. However, the pair rebounded off that low as downside momentum could not be maintained, and the hourly bar closed back above the moving average - signalling buying support.   From there, the price started the move to the upside.   Once the 200 hour MA was broken (green line in chart above), the momentum to the upside intensified.    The next target level to the upside comes in at the 1.6442 level which was the high price last Tuesday. The  high from last week reached 1.6543.  This will also be a target to the upside. On the downside, the pair will find support against the 38.2% retracement support at the 1.6345 level.

Jobless Claims due out at 8:30 AM. ISM Non Manufacturing due at 10:00 AM Posted: 03 Sep 2009 04:58 AM PDT Expectation is for a slight fall to 564K from 570K. Continuing Claims expected to come out at 6130K vs 6133K. At 10AM the US Non Manufacturing Index is expected to show a rise to 48.0 vs 46.4 last month.  The index has been below 50 since September 2008.  The low was in November at 37.4.  The high since the low was 47 in June 2009.  If interest is that Manufacturing PMI is leading the Service PMI.  The Manufacturing PMI rose to 52.9 announced on September 1st.  This is likely due to the nature of the manufacturing economy.  The inventories have gotten so lean they have to replenish - especially post the Cash for Clunkers program.  However, the service sector which is more hinged on discretionary purchases, may not have the same trajectory due to balance sheet devastation.  Neverthe less, both are on the rebound as the economies decline stabilizes.

ECB Rate Decision due at 7:45 AM. No change expected. Posted: 03 Sep 2009 04:42 AM PDT The ECB Rate decision at 7:45 AM.  No rate change is expected. Of note willof course be the comments from ECB Trichet at 8:30.  In the Eurozone today, the Servive PMI came in at 49.9  expectation of 49.5.  The Retail Sales Report came in at -0.2% MoM (vs +0.1% exp) and -1.8% YoY (vs. -2.2% exp). The prior month was revised higher to 0.0% from -0.2% and -2.0% vs -2.4% YoY.  From a technical perspective, the EURUSD is up with the weakness in the dollar. There is rumblings in the market that the gold increase yesterday may be a program out of China to diversify out of the dollar. Gold continues to be bought today and this will likely keep that story alive.  The pair has resistance against the trendline at the 1.4352 level.  Above that is another trendline at 1.4392.  The high for 2009 comes in at 1.4447.   On the downside, the pair moved back above the 100 and 200 hour MA along with the 50% retracment level at the 1.4291 area. The market will ultimately need to stay above these levels today.  Before that level is the 1.4313 to 1.4318 level where highs and the 61.8% retracements levels are located.

OECD positive commnets on world economy Posted: 03 Sep 2009 02:10 AM PDT The OECD has come out with a positive outlook on global economies. They see stabilization in the fall global trade. Also see a smaller decline for G7 economies GDP in 2009 than initially expected. They see growth in Q3 and Q4 for G7 nations including Eurozone and US. Off of these comments Usd/Jpy has made a new high now trading at 92.55.

Eurozone retail sales Posted: 03 Sep 2009 02:04 AM PDT Eurozone retail sales m/m came in at -0.2%, weaker than the 0.1% expected. Y/y came in at -1.8%, stronger than the -2.2% expected. Eur/Usd trading at 1.4308, 5 pips from earlier high.

UK PMI Services Posted: 03 Sep 2009 01:30 AM PDT UK PMI Services came in at 54.1, slightly stronger than the 54.0 expected. This is the highest reading since September 2007. Sterling has gotten a boost from the positive data as Gbp/Usd makes new high at 1.6345.

Eurozone PMI Posted: 03 Sep 2009 01:01 AM PDT Eurozone Final Services PMI came in at 49.9, stronger than the 49.5 expected. PMI composite came in at 50.4, stronger than the 50.0 expected. This is highest reading since May 2008. Should be a positive number for Euro as we continue to trade not far off the highs of the session, currently 1.4293 vs. Usd.

8-3 Economic Calendar Posted: 02 Sep 2009 08:47 PM PDT

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Factory Orders are worse than expectations but prior month revised higher.
• EURJPY bounces off the channel support. Boosts USDJPY in the process.
• Sept 02 2009 Forex Market Update
• USDJPY is testing the low close since Feb 2009
• ADP comes in worse than expected. EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY fall on the report
• GBPUSD is testing the 100 hour MA at the 1.6239 level
• EURUSD has up and down day so far. Range has consolidated between 1.4212 support and 1.4253 resistance
• Challenger Job cuts fell for the current month. ADP Employment due at 8:15 AM
• The Challenger Job Cuts YoY is due at 7:30 AM
• US Mortgage Applications fall by -2.2% for the week
• Eurozone economic data (GDP & PPI)
• UK PMI construction spending
• Spanish unemployment significantly higher than expected
• Gbp/Jpy daily snapshot
• 9-2 Economic Calendar

Factory Orders are worse than expectations but prior month revised higher. Posted: 02 Sep 2009 07:11 AM PDT The Factory Orders came iin at +1.3%  but the prior month was revised higher to +0.9% from +0.4%.  The expectation was for a gain of 2.2%.  Durable Goods orders was revised higher however, to +5.1% from +4.9% reported on August 27th.

EURJPY bounces off the channel support. Boosts USDJPY in the process. Posted: 02 Sep 2009 06:39 AM PDT The EURJPY tested and bounced off the hourly channel trendline at the 131.05 level.  The low reached 131.01.  The market should find support against this level today and this in turn could give the USDJPY some support as well.   The USDJPY has rebounded after breaking below the 92.39 low closing price from July 10th (see earlier post). The low today reached 92.22.  Upside resistance in the USDJPY currently comes in at the 92.67 level where the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is located.

Sept 02 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 02 Sep 2009 06:38 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. FXDD morning commentary with a focus on trading opportunities for today.

USDJPY is testing the low close since Feb 2009 Posted: 02 Sep 2009 05:38 AM PDT The USDJPY is testing the low closing price since February at the 92.39 level. This level should provide some initial support for the USDJPY.   A break lower would next target the low prices from July at the 91.78.  A move back above the 92.50 level should confirm the low is in place for the time being, with a test of the 100 bar MA likely (blue line in the chart below).

ADP comes in worse than expected. EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY fall on the report Posted: 02 Sep 2009 05:19 AM PDT The August ADP Private Sector Employment report came in at -298K vs -250K expectation. The prior month was revised higher to -360K from -371K. Small businesses jobs fell by -122k while large businesses lost -60K suggesting the Mom and Pop businesses are being forced to close shop as consumers stay away. Once again the data does not include government which should make the number worse for NFP. However, of note is the NFP fell by 247K last month and the ADP showed a revised -360K decline. So the numbers are not exactly a match for NFP. The intial reaction is a fall in the GBPUSD and EURUSD. The USDJPY also fell.  However, the falls are being retraced a little as the market settles in.  Stocks are down 21 points (Dow futures).  The S & P is down 2.0.  Nasdaq is down 5 points. Oil is up 0.21 cents in early trade. The market is trying to develop the NY bias but the worse than expected data may cause the stocks to fall at the start at least.  Note however, that the early declines have been finding initial support on the openings of late. The 1.4183 level remains the key suppport for the EURUSD.  For the GBPUSD, the 1.6180 level is intraday support initially.

GBPUSD is testing the 100 hour MA at the 1.6239 level Posted: 02 Sep 2009 05:12 AM PDT The 100 hour MA comes in at 1.6239 for the GBPUSD. The high for the day comes in at the 1.6235 so far.  A move higher should lead to further upside momentum.   The GBPUSD has been more supported today after failing to take out the low from yesterday at the 1.6112 level. Look for resistance on a move higher at the 1.6256 and 1.6285 level (close from Monday).

EURUSD has up and down day so far. Range has consolidated between 1.4212 support and 1.4253 resistance Posted: 02 Sep 2009 05:03 AM PDT The EURUSD closes the day yesterday at the 1.4224. The market moved down to our KEY support level at the 1.4183 level (see prior post from yesterday).  The low reached 1.4189 where profit taking buyers entered and started moving the pair back to the upside.  After stalling  at prior resistance at the 1.4221 area, the price moved to the upside reaching a high of 1.4246.  The market has found support since then at the 1.4212 level  and seems to be content with using the 38.2% retracement of yesterdays range at 1.4253 as the upside resistance area.   A  move outside these ranges should see additional moves in the direction of the move.  Traders can also use these ranges to buy or sell against until a potential trend is established.  That is buy against the support level and sell against the resistance levels.

Challenger Job cuts fell for the current month. ADP Employment due at 8:15 AM Posted: 02 Sep 2009 04:37 AM PDT The Challenger job cuts fell by 13.8% YoY despite a bigger hurdle versus a year ago.  The total cuts fell to 76,456 from 97,373 last month (-21.5 decline). THis was the second lowest level for the year. The low came in at 74,393 in June.  The government led the cuts with 38,586 announced cuts.    The Computer industry is the healthiest industry with only 75 announced job cuts.  This report does not say anything about hiring.  The ADP Non Farm estimate is due at 8:15 and it will shed some light on the net change in jobs for the month of August.  The estimate is for a decline of -250K jobs (not counting the effects of government).  This compares to -371K last month for the report and versus a change of -247K of Non Farm jobs last month.  Note that the ADP does not include public sector jobs (i.e. government). From the Challenger series, the number announced job cuts should imply a NFP that will be  a bit worse than the announced number (assuming the government has a net job decline for the month). Also announced at 8:30 AM will be the Non Farm Productivity.  This is expected to show a gain of 6.4% for the 2Q. This is unchanged from the prior estimate. Unit Labor costs are expected to also come in unchanged at -5.8%.   As workers are let go, the Productivity tends to go higher as employers extract more product per worker to make up for lower profits.

The Challenger Job Cuts YoY is due at 7:30 AM Posted: 02 Sep 2009 04:28 AM PDT The Challenger Job cuts will be announced at 7:30 AM.  Last month job cuts fell by 5.7% versus a year ago.  FOr this month, the % change from a year ago will be compared to a lower value from last year.  That is 88,736 job cuts were announced. In order to have a decline in the index this month,  announced job cuts would need to be below this value.  As a guide last month when the index fell by -5.7% that was compared to a higher year ago value of 103,312.  The actual job cuts came in at 97,373 As a result, in order to show a 0% change, a decline in job cuts to 88,736 from the 97,373 will be needed.  As a guide, the low job cuts in the recent data came in at 74,393 in June.

US Mortgage Applications fall by -2.2% for the week Posted: 02 Sep 2009 04:19 AM PDT The Purchase index fell by -1.0% The Refinance index fell by -3.1%.. The average rate fell to 5.15% on 30 year loans for the current week. SO despite the fall in rates, the numbers were down.

Eurozone economic data (GDP & PPI) Posted: 02 Sep 2009 02:05 AM PDT Eurozone Q2 GDP q/q came in at -0.1%, inline with expectations. Y/y also inline at -4.7%. PPI m/m came in at -0.8%, weaker than the -0.6% expected. Y/y came in at -8.5%, weaker than the -8.4% expected. Eur/Usd holding at 1.4225, uninspired by data release.

UK PMI construction spending Posted: 02 Sep 2009 01:35 AM PDT UK PMI construction spending came in at 47.7, slightly weaker than the 48.0 expected, but stronger than prior reading of 47.0. No major market effect as Gbp/Usd is trading slightly higher at 1.6143.

Spanish unemployment significantly higher than expected Posted: 02 Sep 2009 12:10 AM PDT Spain’s unemployment m/m came in at 85,000, worse than the 33,000 expected. It is the first rise in four months. Eur/Usd has since given back 25 pips worth of gains it had achieved in last hour. Now trading at 1.4220.

Gbp/Jpy daily snapshot Posted: 01 Sep 2009 09:32 PM PDT Gbp/Jpy has been in a steady downtrend from a daily perspective. the pair is now trading below the 50% fibo retracement of 151.03 using 139.00 low from April 28 and 162.99 high from August 10. If trend continues support should come around 148.19 (61.8% fibo). A break of that level could bring the pair down to 145.00, the 200 hour M/A lies at 145.06.

9-2 Economic Calendar Posted: 01 Sep 2009 08:28 PM PDT

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• September 1st 2009 Morning Forex Report
• PMI Manufacturing better than expected
• Sept 01 2009 Forex Market Update
• USDJPY corrects up to the resistance area and backs off today
• GBPUSD corrects back toward 100 hour MA but falls back down
• EURUSD hanging around MA levels. Approaches intraday resistance at 1.4331 area
• US ISM Data highlight US data today
• NZ Finance Minister English on the wires
• Sterling trading below its 100 hour M/A
• Eurozone unemployment
• UK economic data overall weaker than expectations
• Euro Final Manufacturing PMI came out better then expected at 48.2
• German unemployment
• German retail sales
• Swiss Q2 GDP

September 1st 2009 Morning Forex Report Posted: 01 Sep 2009 07:05 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

PMI Manufacturing better than expected Posted: 01 Sep 2009 07:03 AM PDT ORDER BACKLOG INDEX 52.5 VS 50.0 IN JULY INVENTORIES INDEX 34.4 VS 33.5 IN JULY PRICES-PAID INDEX 65.0 VS 55.0 IN JULY EMPLOYMENT INDEX 46.4 VS 45.6 IN JULY PRODUCTION INDEX 61.9 VS 57.9 IN JULY NEW ORDERS INDEX 64.9 VS 55.3 IN JULY MANUFACTURING INDEX RISES TO 52.9 FROM 48.9 Data is better than expected.  The New Orders better.  Stocks are moving higher on the data.  Dow is up 50 points. EURUSD is moving higher as is the USDJPY and cross currency pairs. PendingHome sales were also better at +3.2%  versus expectation of 1.5%.

Sept 01 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 01 Sep 2009 06:19 AM PDT New Video Now Pending

USDJPY corrects up to the resistance area and backs off today Posted: 01 Sep 2009 05:59 AM PDT The USDJPY has a good resistance area at the 93.20 to 93.34 area. Over the last 4 or so days the price has used this area as first as an area of support and then as an area of resistance.  Today the price tested the upper extreme on better China PMI data but the European bourses have since reversed and the risk appetite seen earlier turned to risk avoidance, and there was a fall in the USDJPY and the Yen cross pairs like the GBPJPY and the EURJPY. Looking at the 5 minute chart, the price has dipped below a trendline this morning athe 93.02 level.  The 100 bar MA comes in at 93.12 currently.  Look for some resistance against this level  Much will depend on the stock market.  Currently the stock market is down around 50 Dow points and 5 S&P points in pre open trading.

GBPUSD corrects back toward 100 hour MA but falls back down Posted: 01 Sep 2009 05:43 AM PDT The GBPUSD corrected back toward the 100 hour MA but fell short. The 100 hour MA comes in at the 1.6256 level - reaching a high at the 1.6249 - but found upside sellers against the level.  On the downside today has support along the hourly trendline which comes in at the 1.6200 level.  THis level will be watched as support on the downside. The GBPUSD has been pressured on the back of weaker than expected ISM data this morning.  This caused a sharp fall in the currency pair that saw  the price move through the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above), down through the 100 hour MA (blue line  in the chart above).   The decline stopped against the trendline support line.

EURUSD hanging around MA levels. Approaches intraday resistance at 1.4331 area Posted: 01 Sep 2009 05:19 AM PDT The EURUSD has the 100 and 200 hour MA at the 1.4304 and 1.4298 levels respectively.  The pair has moved down below these two key MAs over the last few hours reaching a low for the day at the 1.4286 level.  The pair found support against the 1.4282 level where the 61.8% retracement level is currently located.  The market has since rebounded.  On the 5 minute chart the pair has some upside resistance against the 1.4331 level today. The midpoint of the days range comes in at the level and the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is starting to come down toward the level.  The two MA are currently at the 1.4338 level. From a longer term perspective, the price action has been converging the range over the last few weeks.  The pair has resistance against the 1.4405 to 1.4411 level (1.4411 is the high close for 2009).  On the downside, there is trendline support that comes in at the 1.4275 level.   When activity consolidates ranges it will tend to break at some point to the upside or the downside.   As a result, we are on alert for a break at some point.      In the Eurozone this morning the Final PMI data for August was stronger than expectations at 48.2 vs 47.9 preliminary.  However, the weaker UK PMI data and subsequent fall in the GBPUSD dragged down the EURUSD in the process. There also was some talk from German officials on the potential for higher unemployment still yet to come.  The German Unemployment showed a decline of 1K in the Unemployment Change for August. This was better than expectation for an increase in Unemployment of 30K. His comments seemed to be an attempt to temper any enthusiasm for the better data.

US ISM Data highlight US data today Posted: 01 Sep 2009 04:54 AM PDT The US ISM Manufacturing data will highlight todays data (to be released at 10AM).  The expectationis for a gain to over 50.5 from 48.9. The regional indices have been largely better this month.  Yesterday, Chicago, Milwaukee and Dallas Fed indices were all better than expected.   The national ISM has not been above the 50 level - the level associated with an expansionary manufacturing sector - since January 2008.  The low reached 32.9 in December 2008.   It has now risen for 7 straight months.  The Prices Paid Index within the report is also expected to show a rise to 57.8 from 55.0. Also released at 10 AM will be Pending Home Sales.  They are expected to show a rise by 1.5% Month on Month.  This measure is thought to be a leading indicator for future Existing Home Sales which are closed sales.  The Pending Home Sales have grown for 5 straight months . Finally, Construction Spending will be released at 10 AM.  The expectation is for an unchanged reading after a 0.3% gain last month

NZ Finance Minister English on the wires Posted: 01 Sep 2009 04:31 AM PDT A bit surprised at the strength of the NZ dollar Export led recovery would be a challenge at current NZ levels There isn’t anything the government do to halt the strength of the Kiwi.

Sterling trading below its 100 hour M/A Posted: 01 Sep 2009 02:47 AM PDT Gbp/Usd has broken below its 100 hour M/A of 1.6261. After trending upward most of the session some unfavorable economic data out of the UK has seen the pair come off over 100 pips. Look for cable to test its 100 hour M/A on the topside, if it breaks above there isn’t much resistance in sight. If it doesn’t break above a repeated low of 1.6157 might be the next target.

Eurozone unemployment Posted: 01 Sep 2009 02:01 AM PDT Eurozone unemployment rate came in as expected at 9.5%. Eur/Usd currently trading at 1.4350.

UK economic data overall weaker than expectations Posted: 01 Sep 2009 01:41 AM PDT UK PMI came in at 49.7, weaker than the 51.5 expected. Mortgage approvals came in as expected at 50.1K Net consumer credit came in at -£0.2B, weaker than the  £0.1B expected. The cumulative effect of these releases was a selloff of GBP across the board. Gbp/Usd off about 80 pips to 1.6260, Gbp/Jpy off about the same currently trading at 151.60.

Euro Final Manufacturing PMI came out better then expected at 48.2 Posted: 01 Sep 2009 01:01 AM PDT Euro Final Manufacturing PMI came out better then expected at 48.2 from 47.9 which was forecast. Eur/Usd show very little reaction to the number still trading around its high at 1.4368. We see some resistance coming up at 1.4375 today’s high and 1.4400.

German unemployment Posted: 01 Sep 2009 12:58 AM PDT German unemployment change came in at -1,000, much better than the 33,000 expected. This is a positive for the Euro. eur/Usd has gotten a 10 pip lift thus far trading currently at 1.4267.

German retail sales Posted: 31 Aug 2009 11:03 PM PDT German retail sales inline with expectations for m/m at 0.7%. That is a 2.0% jump from last months reading of -1.3%. Y/y came in at -1.0%, stronger than the -1.2% expected. Good numbers for the Euro and the market is proving that as Eur/Usd makes new session high at 1.4274.

Swiss Q2 GDP Posted: 31 Aug 2009 10:49 PM PDT Swiss Q2 GDP q/q came in at -0.3%, stronger than the -1.0% expected. Y/y came in at -2.0%, stronger than the -3.0% expected. Strong numbers for CHF as Eur/Chf and Usd/Chf are trading close to session lows (1.5170 & 1.0563 respectively).

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