Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD chops around between support at 1.4716 and resistance at 1.4735
• Oct 9 2009 Forex Market Update
• $EURUSD tests 1.4719 level. Additional support against 100 hour MA at the 1.4716
• $USDJPY moves toward resistance at the 89.06/10 level
• US Trade Deficit comes in at -30.7 billion. Better than expected
• EURUSD rebounds after testing the 100 hour MA overnight
• USDCAD move lower on better Employment data
• Canadian Unemployment figures better than expected
• Gbp/Usd sent below 100 and 200 hour M/A
• UK PPI & Trade Balance better than expectations
• German Trade Balance less than expected
• 10-9 Economic Calendar
• Japanese Core Machine Orders
• Bernanke Speaks in Washington
• Oct 8 2009 Forex Evening Report

EURUSD chops around between support at 1.4716 and resistance at 1.4735 Posted: 09 Oct 2009 06:53 AM PDT The EURUSD had a shallow correction to the 1.4733 level and moved back lower. The price dipped back down to test the 1.4716 level once again reaching a low of 1.4713.  The price however, has rebounded back higher.  The price is now back up testing intraday resistance at 1.4735.  Clearly, the market is in a tug a war mode with support below against the 100 hour MA and intraday resistance against the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (at 1.4735).    Expect volatile conditions to continue.

Oct 9 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 09 Oct 2009 06:45 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. The market is reversing the lower dollar trends from the past few days.

$EURUSD tests 1.4719 level. Additional support against 100 hour MA at the 1.4716 Posted: 09 Oct 2009 06:06 AM PDT The EURUSD is testing the 1.4716 /19 support target. This is where the 100 hour MA (1.4716) and the December 2008 high price which has been a magnet for the pair.  A move below these levels,  next targets the 1.4688 level  for the pair (38.2% retracement in the chart above) .  Look for profit takers against the level 1.4716 level, but sellers should be against the 1.4735 on a corrective move higher.   So watch for a shallow correction. Alternatively a break below the 1.4716 level should solicit additional selling pressure on the pair.

$USDJPY moves toward resistance at the 89.06/10 level Posted: 09 Oct 2009 05:50 AM PDT The USDJPY has moved back higher after correcting in London. The pair is looking to test the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 89.06 level.  There is additional resistance from a floor earlier today at the 89.10. Look for sellers against the levels.  However, a move above these levels should solicit additional buying interest.    The next target on the upside comes in at 89.30 here the 200 hour MA is located. The high for the day spiked up at 89.41. This was the first move above the 200 hour MA since it broke lower at 91.18 on the 25th of September.  The move above the 200 hour MA was quickly reversed this morning.  Look for sellers against this level again. A break, looks toward the 89.73 level which is the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the September 21st high to the low on October 7th.

US Trade Deficit comes in at -30.7 billion. Better than expected Posted: 09 Oct 2009 05:35 AM PDT The US Trade Deficit came in at -30.7 Billion vs expectations of -33 B. Last month the deficit came in at -32.0 B.  Imports fell by 0.6% after jumping in the previous month. It is expected that imports will increase in coming months as inventories are replenished.  Exports meanwhile were the  highest since December 2008.  This indicates the lower dollar is making exports more competitive abroad and/or the global economy is improving.  Exports to Canada reached the highest level since Nov 2008. This was mostly due to car and car part exports.  The data should be favorable to the US$. The EURUSD has declined only a few pips so far. However, the price is back below support at the 1.4750 and look for the next support at the 1.4735.

EURUSD rebounds after testing the 100 hour MA overnight Posted: 09 Oct 2009 05:22 AM PDT The EURUSD moved down to test the 1.4719 support level and the 100 hour MA.  The price declined to a low of 1.4704.  The 100 hour MA came in at the 1.4704.  Typically, the market will use the 100 hour MA as support (or resistance).  The trade is a low risk trade with stops on moves below the level.  The rebound off the MA took the price up to a high of 1.4773.  There is resistance at the 1.4787 level and above that 1.4800 and 1.4821 today.   On the downside, the pair is testing support currently at the 1.4747/50 level.  This is the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart and the 38.2% retracement area from the move down.

USDCAD move lower on better Employment data Posted: 09 Oct 2009 04:59 AM PDT With the Canadian employment report coming in much better than expected, the USDCAD has moved to new 2009 lows (lowest level since Sep 29th 2008).  The next support comes in at the 1.0410 level. This corresponds to the low level from August 2008 period.  Another longer term support comes in below at the 1.0296 level which corresponds with lows and highs in March and June 2008.   Keep these levels in mind.  The stronger number makes the case for stronger growth in Canada. The stronger data may prompt the Bank of Canada to follow the Reserve Bank of Australia and raise interest rates. The employment report showed a gain of 30.6K jobs vs expectation of 5K gain. This is on the back of a 27.1K gain last month.  The back to back gain is the first since Sept/October of 2008.  The employment rate also fell to 8.4%. This is the lowest rate since May 2009.  The expectation was for a gain to 8.8% from 8.7% last month.

Canadian Unemployment figures better than expected Posted: 09 Oct 2009 04:12 AM PDT Canadian Employment Change came in at 30,600, much better than the 4,900 new jobs expected. The Unemployment Rate came in at 8.4%, also better than the 8.8% expected and 8.7% prior reading. Canadian dollar strengthened upon release of great unemployment figures with Usd/Cad now trading off 50 pips to 1.0460.

Gbp/Usd sent below 100 and 200 hour M/A Posted: 09 Oct 2009 02:05 AM PDT Gbp/Usd dipped below its 100 hour (1.5966) and 200 hour (1.5961) M/A. If it continues on this path look for the pair to trade down to 1.5930 area which conicides with hourly lows dating back to Oct. 7th. If the pair can rebound above 1.5988, the 50 % Fibo as shown on chart, is likely.

UK PPI & Trade Balance better than expectations Posted: 09 Oct 2009 01:34 AM PDT UK PPI Input m/m came in at -0.5%, stronger than the -0.9% expected. PPI Output m/m came in at 0.5%, stronger than the 0.1% expected. Trade Balance came in at -6.2B, slightly better than the -6.3B expected. Gbp/Usd jumped from up 25 pips to 1.6005-10 on news, it has since given back some gains to 1.5990.

German Trade Balance less than expected Posted: 08 Oct 2009 11:11 PM PDT German trade balance came in at 10.6B, less than the 12.4B expected. Eur/Usd has sold off 20 pips thus far from 1.4735 down to 1.4715 on bad trade figure.

10-9 Economic Calendar Posted: 08 Oct 2009 11:08 PM PDT

Japanese Core Machine Orders Posted: 08 Oct 2009 04:52 PM PDT Core Machinery Orders m/m in Japan came in at 0.5%%; worse than its forecast of 2.2% and previous reading of -9.3%.  The market showed a limited reaction to the release as the JPY trades off session lows against the majors.

Bernanke Speaks in Washington Posted: 08 Oct 2009 04:23 PM PDT Speaking at a FED Board Conference in Washington today, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke made the following comments: Says Fed will be ready to “tighten” when the economy improves enough. TAF “largely solved” discount window issue. FED liquidity is “crucial” for stopping panics The Fed’s holdings of long term securities will rise. Bank reserves deposited at the Fed will most likely grow. An improved economy would prompt a balance sheet trimming. Accommodations will likely be warranted for an extended period of time. U.S. has “serious too big to fail problem”; market discipline necessary to correct this. Following these statements the USD caught a light bid across the board.

Oct 8 2009 Forex Evening Report Posted: 08 Oct 2009 01:30 PM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. The dollar sold off again today as gold and commodities continues the move to the upside. We are also seeing stocks move higher as well. This has led to selling of dollars with some new highs being reached for 2009 in some currency pairs.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD moves below 1.4773 then 1.4743 support level
• Oct 8 2009 Forex Market Update
• EURUSD squeezes higher. Trichet comments increase volatility
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.8.2009
• Trichet Press Conference Headlines on newswires
• Canada Housing Starts come in at 150.1K. Better than expected but lower than last month. Watching 1.0589 in $USDCAD
• No change in ECB rate as expected. Trichet and Initial Claims at 8:30 AM. Watch 1.4735 support
• GBPUSD moves higher today. NO rate change. Watching 1.6035 support.
• UK Asset Purchase Facility & Rate Decision
• German Industrial Production
• Sterling trades above Oct 6th high
• 10-8 Economic Calendar
• Australian Unemployment
• EUR/USD Upward Move Shows Channel Support
• JPY Current Account

EURUSD moves below 1.4773 then 1.4743 support level Posted: 08 Oct 2009 07:00 AM PDT The EURUSD used the 1.4800 high as a reason to sell.  The level also corresponded with the trendline resistance off the hourly chart. That level came in at 1.4802.  Like the USDJPY low yesterday at the 88.00 level, the stopping at the 1.4800 level in the EURUSD helped contribute to the selling pressure. In addition, there also could have been selling pressure from options selling.  Often strike prices on options are at levels such as 1.4800.  If there is settlements that get fixed today, market participants in the options will sell against the level in order to keep the options out of the money. Whatever, the reason, the market moved below our support levels at 1.4773 and then the 200 bar MA and 38.2% support at 1.4743 (see Prior post).  The decline has stopped at the midpoint of the last move higher at 1.4725 and has additional support at the 1.4719 level which is the December 2008 high price on the spike higher at that time.  With the price now below the intraday support, at 1.4743/46 the bias short term is to the downside.  A break above the 200 bar MA muddies the water a bit but a break below 1.4719 should lead to lower levels.

Oct 8 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 08 Oct 2009 06:25 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. The EURUSD has had a wild ride this morning as the market digest Trichets comments. The EURUSD reached key resistance at the 1.4800/02 level. The USDJPY held trendline support. The GBPUSD broke through trendline support and is holding retracement support.

EURUSD squeezes higher. Trichet comments increase volatility Posted: 08 Oct 2009 06:08 AM PDT The EURUSD squeezed higher as Trichet comments lead to volatile market conditions. Ironically although he commented how the US strong dollar statement is extremely important, the EURUSD has moved higher.  The market wanted a lower dollar.   From a technical basis the price respected the  200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart as per the previous post (CLICK HERE TO READ POST).  This started the sharp rise higher.  The high reached 1.4800.  Like the USDJPY from yesterday when the price stopped at 88.00, the stopping at the ‘big figure’ level has led to some selling .  Watch this level for resistance.  A break, however, should lead to a spurt higher.  On the downside watch the 1.4773 level for support but as long as the 1.4743 level can hold (200 bar and new 38.2% retracement level off the 1.4800 high) the upside is favored.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.8.2009 Posted: 08 Oct 2009 06:07 AM PDT Good Morning: Today is the last day of the Kuwait Traders Expo in Kuwait City, Kuwait. We will be returning to the US tomorrow, and be back in the office next week. As expected, both the BOE or ECB left interest rates unchanged. The USD was lower overnight, as speculation that the global recovery will push demand for higher yielding assets grows. Aussie rose to a 14 month high, as did Kiwi. Commodity producing country’s currencies are the most sought after at this time. Commodities rose, led by copper and aluminum.  Gold, nickel, tin and zinc also rose but by a lesser percentage.  Better than expected earnings from Alcoa, Inc fueled speculation that the global recovery will push raw materials to new highs. Global equity markets rose, and US futures are pointing to a higher opening this morning. Weekly jobless claims in the US dropped to a better than expected -521K Oil:$70.34                 Gold:$1053.40 Have a Great Day & Good Luck

Trichet Press Conference Headlines on newswires Posted: 08 Oct 2009 05:34 AM PDT  U.S. STRONG DOLLAR STATEMENT EXTREMELY IMPORTANT  EXCESS FOREX MOVES ADVERSE FOR ECONOMY ECB MUST REMAIN ALERT, NOT DECLARE PROBLEMS OVER EUROPE IS OUT OF ECONOMIC FREEFALL SIGNS OF ECONOMIC STABILIZATION GOVTS MUST CONSOLIDATE BUDGETS AS SOON AS THEY CAN  FISCAL CONSOLIDATION SHOULD BE STEPPED UP IN 2011  GOVTS SHOULD DESIGN PLANS IN LINE WITH EU PACT  GOVTS MUST DESIGN EXIT STRATEGIES   MON POLICY IS PROVIDING STRONG SUPPORT TO ECONOMY MEASURES WILL BE UNWOUND IN TIMELY FASHION  WHEN ECONOMY IMPROVES, MEASURES WILL BE UNWOUND BANKS SHOULD TAKE MEASURES TO STRENGTHEN CAPITAL BASES DATA SHOW BROAD MONEY GROWTH REMAINS SUBDUED TAX INCREASES MAY BE STRONGER THAN EXPECTED  INFLATION TO REMAIN SUBDUED INFLATION TO TURN POSITIVE IN COMING MONTHS  DOWNSIDE RISKS INCL. OIL PRICES, PROTECTIONISM  LABOR MKT MAY DETERIORATE LESS THAN EXPECTED  VOLATILITY IN DATA WARRANTS CAUTIOUS INTERPRETATION MUST INTERPRET DATA WITH CAUTION UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH EURO ECONOMY SHOULD BENEFIT FROM STIMULUS MEASURE ECONOMY SHOULD BENEFIT FROM EXPORT RECOVERY PRICE STABILITY TO BE MAINTAINED IN MEDIUM TERM MONETARY, CREDIT EXPANSION CONTINUE TO MODERATE  MONETARY ANALYSIS CONFIRMS LOW PRICE PRESSURE INFLATION TO BE MODESTLY POSITIVE OVER POLICY HORIZON  INFLATION EXPECATIONS FIRMLY ANCHORED  ECONOMY IS STABILIZING, TO RECOVER GRADUALLY INFLATION TO TURN POSITIVE IN COMING MONTHS LATEST DATA CONFIRM PREVIOUS ASSESSMENT  ECB RATES ARE APPROPRIATE The comments on inflation turning positive is referring to the dropping out of the sharp declines seen in the months leading to Christmas last year. This was when oil prices were falling rapidly.  When those numbers drop out of the YoY equation, the inflation will move back toward the lower end of the target boundary of 2-3% inflation.  This is why he also comments how inflation remains contained, while it moves higher.  So do not interpret higher inflation, with inflation. It is purely mathematics.

Canada Housing Starts come in at 150.1K. Better than expected but lower than last month. Watching 1.0589 in $USDCAD Posted: 08 Oct 2009 05:28 AM PDT The expectation was for a decline to 148.0 from 157.3 last month. The actual level came in at 150.1 K.  The USDCAD has moved back below the old 2009 low of 1.0589 level today and remained below as dollar selling was the order of the day. The low 1.0531 which was above yesterdays low of 1.0526.  This should give shorts some concern. However, until the price extends back above the 1.0589 level, the bears remain in charge.  On a move above 1.0589, we should see additional momentum.    On the downside, the 1.0552 level will be watched as support.  Look for buyers against this level.

No change in ECB rate as expected. Trichet and Initial Claims at 8:30 AM. Watch 1.4735 support Posted: 08 Oct 2009 05:00 AM PDT The Initial Claims are expected to come in at the 543K vs 551K yesterday.  Trichet’s comments will be of interest.  He commented after the G7 meeting last week that he was pleased with the US intentions for a strong dollar.  We will see if he makes a similar comment today. From a technical view, the EURUSD also moved steadily higher overnight.  The pair moved above the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart initially (See comment from yesterday that discusses this key level - CLICK HERE). From there the price started the move up.  The pair has dipped below the 100 bar moving average on the 5 minute chart recently. This is the first dip since late yesterday. The level comes in at the 1.4764 level.  Watch this level.  A move below the 200 bar MA and the 38.2% retracement of the move up from yesterday at 1.4738/35 respectively will confirm intraday bearishness.  A move back above the 1.4764 level will likely move toward another test of the highs.

GBPUSD moves higher today. NO rate change. Watching 1.6035 support. Posted: 08 Oct 2009 04:54 AM PDT GBPUSD moved higher overnight. The BOE announced no rate change. This was as expected.  The Quantitative Easing was kept the same.  The BOE did say it would complete the asset purchase program but will review whether to extend it next month.  Whether they extend it next month is dependent on economic conditions.   The GBPUSD stayed above the 100 and 200 hour MA at the opening and moved toward trendline resistance at the 1.6011 level.  After consolidating/correcting, the pair moved through trendline resistance and through resistance at the 1.6035 level (38.2% retracement of the move down from Sept 23rd high).  The corrections down from the high for the day at the 1.6093 has moved to 1.6035 - raising the importance of the level today.   The bounce off this level is encouraging for the pair.  The next upside target is the 1.6118 level (midpoint of the move down from the September 23rd high). On the downside, the the 1.6035 level will remain a key support level.  The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (blue line in chart below) is currently below that level at the 1.6029 level but moving higher.  Watch this level for buying support.  If the 1.6035 level gives way, a further move back down to the 1.6000 level is the next target.  The 200 bar MA and the trendline that was broken on the topside earlier today (see hourly chart) both come in at that level currently (see chart below).

UK Asset Purchase Facility & Rate Decision Posted: 08 Oct 2009 04:05 AM PDT BOE leaves key interest rate unchanged at 0.50%. BOE Asset Purchase Target unchanged at 175B. Gbp initially bought on release up to 1.6093 vs. USD. It has since retraced to 1.6060.

German Industrial Production Posted: 08 Oct 2009 03:03 AM PDT German Industrial Production m/m came in at 1.7%, weaker than the 1.8% expected. Prior was revised from -0.9% to -1.1%. Y/y came in at -16.8%, stronger than the -17.0% expected. Mixed readings on German Industrial Production. Eeur/Usd remains 1.4770 about 15 pips off high of session.

Sterling trades above Oct 6th high Posted: 08 Oct 2009 12:49 AM PDT Gbp/Usd has traded above Oct 6th high of 1.6047. This level should now be looked upon as an area of support. if the pair can remain above look for a possible run up to 1.6120-25. If sterling breaks below there should be light support around 1.6015-20 area.

10-8 Economic Calendar Posted: 07 Oct 2009 08:39 PM PDT

Australian Unemployment Posted: 07 Oct 2009 05:39 PM PDT Employment Change in Australia for the month of September came in much better than forecasted which caused the AUD to catch a rally against the majors and push new highs against the USD. The details are as follows: Employment Change - Survey: -10.0K   Actual: 40.6K   Prior: -27.1K Unemployment Rate - Survey: 6.0%   Actual: 5.7%   Prior: 5.8% Full Time Employment Change - Actual: 35.4   Prior: -30.8 Part Time Employment Change - Actual: 5.2   Prior: 3.8 Participation Rate - Survey: 65.1%   Actual: 65.2%   Prior: 65.1%

EUR/USD Upward Move Shows Channel Support Posted: 07 Oct 2009 05:29 PM PDT The EUR/USD has been making strong moves higher these past few months. Shown here on the daily EUR chart is the channel that has been developing over the last six months, which is now forming a smaller channel within itself. This signifies that the move higher should continue until the channel is broken.

JPY Current Account Posted: 07 Oct 2009 05:07 PM PDT Japan’s Current Account for August was better than expected; the details are as follows: Current Account Total - Survey: 1148.0B   Actual: 1171.2B   Prior: 1265.6B Adjusted Current Account Total - Survey: 1171.3B   Actual: 1233.6B   Prior: 1159.0B Trade Balance  BOP Basis - Survey: 285.0B   Actual: 303.7B   Prior: 437.2B The JPY caught a slight bid on the release and is currently trading off session highs.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• $USDJPY moves off the 100 hour moving average
• EURUSD moves toward support at the 1.4654
• Oct 7 2009 Forex Market Update
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.7.2009
• USDJPY bounces off the 88.00 level strongly. Approached 100 hr MA resistance at 89.33.
• US Mortgage Applications up strongly
• Gbp/Jpy bounces off support at 139.71
• German Factory Orders
• Eurozone Final GDP
• Eur/Jpy approaching 200 day M/A
• Sterling/Yen trading below Oct. 2nd low of 140.75
• 10-7 Economic Calendar
• Australian Home Loans & Investment Lending
• UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence
• Training Videos - How to add a Fibonacci to your charts

$USDJPY moves off the 100 hour moving average Posted: 07 Oct 2009 07:10 AM PDT The 100 hour moving average at the 89.32 did in fact slow the rise higher (see prior post) and the price has retreated.  Look for buyers to support the market against the 88.82 level which is the closing level from yesterday.

EURUSD moves toward support at the 1.4654 Posted: 07 Oct 2009 06:52 AM PDT The 38.2% retracement of the move up for the EURUSD comes in at the 1.4654 level. The low has reach 1.4664 so far today.  We will be looking for some support against this level today.  A break of that level has the 100 and 200 hour MA at the 1.4632 level as good support.  Both of those key moving averages have converged at that level. Look for buyers against this level today. On the upside, the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart have converged and are moving down toward the 50% rettracment of the days range. That level comes in at 1.4700.  Look for profit taking selling against the level.

Oct 7 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 07 Oct 2009 06:52 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. The USDJPY is leading the action today as it bounces off key support at the 88.00 level. A sharp move was also seen in the Yen cross pairs. For a technical look and a look a the EURUSD, USDCHF and AUDUSD (which may have reached a temporary high), watch the video.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.7.2009 Posted: 07 Oct 2009 05:59 AM PDT Good Morning: Hello from sunny and hot Kuwait. JPY hit a nine month high against the USD as comments from Japan’s Finance Minister stated that policy makers are not concerned with it’s strength. Currencies from commodity producing countries are the biggest winners today.  Kiwi  rose to a 14 month high, and the Loonie jumped to a  1 year high against the USD. Asian equity markets were higher, and Europe is mixed at this time. US Futures are also fluctuating before the NY open. Oil:$71.25                             Gold:$1043.30   Have a Great Day & Good Luck

USDJPY bounces off the 88.00 level strongly. Approached 100 hr MA resistance at 89.33. Posted: 07 Oct 2009 05:51 AM PDT The USDJPY tested the downside (and the resolve of the central bank) reaching a low of 88.00.  Along the way, the September 28th low of 88.23 was taken out. Also the trendline from the channel was also breached.  The pair moved sharplt to a low of 88.00 where buyers emerged.   It is never good to take out a low or high by a few pips. It is also not good for a new low or high to stop at a “big figure” value like 88.00.  When it does, the direction can be reversed and that helped contribute to a sharp bounce.  From a technical perspective, the price will likely find support at the 88.53 level where the channel trendline on the daily chart is found.  Before that level look for the 88.82 level to provide support. This is the closing level from yesterday.  On the topside, the pair is approaching the 100 hour MA at the 89.33 level. Look for profit taking sellers against this level with stops on a move above.

US Mortgage Applications up strongly Posted: 07 Oct 2009 05:16 AM PDT US Mortgage Applications up strongly, by 16%. 30 year fixed below 5% U.S. mortgage applications surged last week to their highest since mid-May as consumers sought to take advantage of the lowest interest rates in months. The MBA said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications, which includes both purchase and refinance loans, for the week to Oct. 2 2009 increased 16.4% to 756.3, the highest since the week ended May 22 2009. The Mortgage Bankers Assoc said rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, the most common type of loan were below 5 percent for a 3rd straight week, reaching a four-month low. “The residential housing market appears to be stabilizing due to lower mortgage rates,” said Alan Rosenbaum, of GH Financial, a New York-based mortgage broker.

Gbp/Jpy bounces off support at 139.71 Posted: 07 Oct 2009 03:58 AM PDT Gbp/Jpy traded down to 139.70-75 level, matching low registered on Sept. 25th (139.71). The pair has bounced off this support level and may now be poised to make a move back up to 140.75 level.

German Factory Orders Posted: 07 Oct 2009 03:13 AM PDT German Factory Orders came in at 1.4%, slightly stronger than the 1.3% expected. Euro slightly higher after release with Eur/Usd now trading at 1.4729, up about 5 pips.

Eurozone Final GDP Posted: 07 Oct 2009 02:03 AM PDT Eurozone Final GDP q/q came in at -0.2, weaker than the -0.1% expected% Eur/Usd sold off about 10 pips on bad number to trade down to 1.4715. It has since rebounded and is currently trading at 1.4722.

Eur/Jpy approaching 200 day M/A Posted: 07 Oct 2009 12:57 AM PDT Eur/Jpy is approaching its 200 day M/A of 129.66. A break below this level may bring the pair below 129.00, which is low from Oct. 2nd. If Eur/Jpy can remain above look for a retracement to the 130.70-80 area. Next resistance from daily perspective would be the 61.8% Fibo at 131.50.

Sterling/Yen trading below Oct. 2nd low of 140.75 Posted: 06 Oct 2009 11:16 PM PDT Gbp/Jpy is trading below Oct 2nd low of 140.75. The next level of support for the pair is 139.71 on downside, low from Sept. 28th. If the pair can get back above 140.75 look for a move above 141.00.

10-7 Economic Calendar Posted: 06 Oct 2009 08:25 PM PDT

Australian Home Loans & Investment Lending Posted: 06 Oct 2009 05:31 PM PDT The following Aussie releases have resulted in a minimal reaction from the AUD, a day after the RBA raised rates 25 basis points and the AUD/USD rallied to new 2009 highs. Home Loans - Survey:-0.5%  Actual:-0.6%   Prior:-2.0% Investment Lending - Actual:7.6%   Prior:-4.0% Value of Loans (MoM) - Actual:-1.7%  Prior:-1.7%

UK Nationwide Consumer Confidence Posted: 06 Oct 2009 04:15 PM PDT The UK Consumer Confidence reading for September came in better than expected at 71 versus the estimate of 68 and better than the prior reading of 63 (which was revised up to 65.) However the Sterling had no reaction to this release. In addition the BRC Shop Price Index came in unchanged at 0.1%, but with a non-food deflationary reading of 1.4% in December.

Training Videos - How to add a Fibonacci to your charts Posted: 06 Oct 2009 01:06 PM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. We get a lot of questions on the way that we set up our charts in house and in response we created some videos that will help you to see what we see when we use Metatrader software. In this installment I will show you how to use the Fibonacci Retracement tool. What is the point of the Fibonacci tool anyways? Good question. The tool allows you to see how far a currency pair will retrace and if set correctly, can give you mathmatical points where the pair can stop and return to its original direction. Many Institutional traders live and breath by this tool. It works very well the long the timeframe you use it on. Ideally 5 mins would be the shortest timeframe and it works all the way up to Monthly. I’ve always liked it on the 15 min, 1 hour, 4 hour and Daily timeframes. You’ll need to play around with it and get comfortable using the Fibonacci tool, and very quickly you will find it to be one of the tools in your tool box that you can’t trade without. Shawn Powell

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• GBPUSD hurt by data this morning. Bias down.
• Oct 6 2009 Forex Market Update
• EURUSD holds the support and moves higher
• $EURUSD moves higher on dollar selling today. Watch support at 1.4705
• Canada Building Permits better than expected. $USDCAD looks to test 2009 lows at 1.0590
• “Secret meetings” also lead to a shift out of dollar. Rumor of a 9 year plan to price oil in a basket of currencies other than US dollars.
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.6.2009
• Australia’s rate rise dominates. Watch the 0.8888 level.
• Gbp/Jpy not far off low
• UK Manufacturing & Industrial Production signicantly weaker than expected
• Halifax House Price Index (UK)
• Swiss CPI
• 10-6 Economic Calendar
• RBA Rate Decision
• Japanese Finance Minister Fujii Speaks

GBPUSD hurt by data this morning. Bias down. Posted: 06 Oct 2009 06:47 AM PDT The UK Industrial Production and Manufacturing Production data this morning was much weaker than expected this morning and it has pressured the GBPUSD today.  The pair has been largely non-trending over the last few days and the 100 and 200 hour MAs have converged at the 1.5954/62 area.  The midpoint of the last 5 days of trading also provides resistance at the 1.5964 level.  The combination makes the 1.5954 to 1.5964 level as topside resistance for the day.  Before that level should find sellers against the 1.5925 level .  Keep these levels in mind for intraday trading.   On the downside the  there is support at 1.5859/63 and below that the low from last week at 1.5802.  Overall, the GBPUSD has a bearish bias in a dollar negative day.  This makes trading the pair somewhat counter to a traders intuitive bias (i.e. dollar selling).  Good trade location with tight stops is recommended for new positions, but the bias is down as per the analysis above.

Oct 6 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 06 Oct 2009 06:30 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. The RBA raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.25%. Also reports of a secret meeting to discuss priciing oil in currencies other than the USD has pressured the dollar this morning.

EURUSD holds the support and moves higher Posted: 06 Oct 2009 06:05 AM PDT Holds the 1.4705 level and bounces. A break of the high at 1.4748 targets 1.4801.

$EURUSD moves higher on dollar selling today. Watch support at 1.4705 Posted: 06 Oct 2009 05:47 AM PDT The EURUSD is higher today on the back of the general dollar selling.  The pair has had a low of 1.4646, the high so far has reached 1.4748.  The pair is above the 61.8% retracement of the last corrective move lower from 1.4844 to the low of 1.4480.  That level comes in at the 1.4705 level. Watch this level for support.  this morning.  Additional intraday support comes at the 1.4697 level where the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is found (and the midpoint of the days range).  A move below this level would raise an eyebrow for the intraday bullish trend. However, I would expect buyers on dips against these key levels. A move to the upside would next target the 1.4801 where the high from September 24th is found

Canada Building Permits better than expected. $USDCAD looks to test 2009 lows at 1.0590 Posted: 06 Oct 2009 05:32 AM PDT Rise by 7.2% after a revised -10.0% decline last month (was -11.4%).  The figures have been influenced over the last few months due to a strike in Toronto which literally shut down the processing of applications in the region. Excluding Toronto, permits rose by 0.8% for the month according tot he Statistics Canada. The USDCAD is being pressured today as oil is up and the general dollar decline today.  The pair is down and approaching the 2009 low of 1.0590 level. The low has reached 1.0611.

“Secret meetings” also lead to a shift out of dollar. Rumor of a 9 year plan to price oil in a basket of currencies other than US dollars. Posted: 06 Oct 2009 05:16 AM PDT Although the GBPUSD is not fully participating as weak economic data hurt its currency this morning, the other big news is the oil producers secret meetings - reported in the UKs Independent newspaper-  saying that the Gulf States, China, Russia, Japan and France were looking to denominate oil transactions in a currency other than the US dollar.  The article titled “The Demise of the US Dollar” (Click here to read the article), discusses a 9 year plan to rid the pricing of oil in dollars, instead using a basket of currencies.  This is pressuring the US dollar this morning which in turn is leading to higher oil prices and Gold this morning.   GBPUSD may also be pressured as they are considered more an allie of the US and may therefore be guilty by association. Although there have been some denials this morning, the article has definitely got the market nervous for the dollar and this will likely remain for the time being.  The market seems to be thinking that where there is smoke there may be fire, so the dips may be limited. Be aware. Risk is increased.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.6.2009 Posted: 06 Oct 2009 05:11 AM PDT Good Morning: I am writing to you from the Kuwait Traders Expo in Kuwait City,Kuwait. Equity and commodity markets rallied around the world after the Reserve Bank of Australia increased interest rates by 25 basis points. Australia is the first of the group of 20 nations to increase interest rates since the global recession began. Raw material producers and financial companies led the charge. The USD dropped after the Australian rate decision.  The EUR/USD moved into the 1.47 handle, compared to yesterday’s mid 1.46 levels.   Oil: $71.40                       Gold:$1027.50 HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Australia’s rate rise dominates. Watch the 0.8888 level. Posted: 06 Oct 2009 04:44 AM PDT The Reserve Bank of Australia raised rates by 25 basis points as per the rumor yesterday and the news led to a rise in the AUDUSD.  The central bank is likely to initiate a series of rises as when a central bank starts a change in direction, it is not for one 25 basis point move.  They are fearful of inflation. They are fearful of growth pickup. This keep the buyers on dips in the market, and the market guessing how much will be enough.  We don’t know that. However, we know it is not the last but is the start of a series of rises.    From a technical basis, the trendline off the tops was broken at 0.8850. The price approached a retracement of 75% of the move down from the July 2008 high of 0.9848 to the low in October 2008 of 0.6006.  That level comes in at the 0.8888 level. Watch this level.  The 75% move, might suggest the rise is already discounted (interest rate spread between Australia and US rates are 300 basis points, while at the peak it was 525 basis points).   However, with rates likely to continue to rise and the US lagging behind, the spread is likely to widen out. How far is unknown, but a widening back out is likely.  On a break of the 0.8888 level, the next target I see is 0.8952 area.  The high going back to Aug 11 2008 came in at 0.8951.  Prior to that in March 2008, the low was 0.8952 (see chart below). On the downside, look for support at 0.8855 t0 0.8862 area.  The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is found at this level.  The consolidation of the move higher has been consolidating since 1 AM NYT and this has allowed the moving average to catch up to the price. The market has to make a decision to move higher or correct/consolidate further.  Be aware.

Gbp/Jpy not far off low Posted: 06 Oct 2009 03:33 AM PDT Gbp/Jpy is not far off session low of 141.90. Fibo retracement lies at 141.88, which has been a good level of support lately. On October 2nd the pair did break below and trade down to 140.75, but by end of that session returned above. If pair can hold it may push 143.00. A more likely scenario sees a break below and possible run down, maybe even below 141.00.

UK Manufacturing & Industrial Production signicantly weaker than expected Posted: 06 Oct 2009 01:41 AM PDT UK Industrial Production m/m came in at -2.5%, far weaker than the 0.2% expected. Y/y came in at -11.2%, weaker than the -8.7% expected. Manufacturing Production m/m came in at -1.9%, weaker than the 0.3% expected. Y/y came in at -11.3%, weaker than the -9.3% expected. Extremely weak numbers for the pound as Gbp/Usd lost about 60 pips on news. Currently Gbp/Usd trades at 1.5955.

Halifax House Price Index (UK) Posted: 06 Oct 2009 01:04 AM PDT Halifax HPI came in at 1.6%, stronger than the 0.6% forecasted.  Strong number for sterling as Gbp/Usd made a new session high of  1.6047. Note UK Industrial Production figure is out at 4:30 EST.

Swiss CPI Posted: 06 Oct 2009 12:29 AM PDT Swiss CPI m/m came in at 0.0%, stronger than the -0.1% expected and prior reading. Eur/Chf trading mid range at 1.5108 and Usd/Chf trading at 1.0250 without much reaction to figure.

10-6 Economic Calendar Posted: 05 Oct 2009 09:08 PM PDT

RBA Rate Decision Posted: 05 Oct 2009 08:43 PM PDT The RBA rate decision came in unexpectedly higher at 3.25%.  Although there was some speculation earlier that they might raise rates, helping move the AUD higher today, the pair caught a bid on the release, but did not break the September highs.

Japanese Finance Minister Fujii Speaks Posted: 05 Oct 2009 07:45 PM PDT The newly appointed Japanese Finance Minister Fujii commented that he had told the G-7 that a weak yen policy is not desirable for Japan and that governments should not pursue FX devaluation. He added that the economy is not ready to implement an exit strategy and that employment and income conditions may worsen in Japan. He continued: BOJ decides policy on careful economic evaluation. BOJ policy should complement government policy. BOJ wont do anything to undermine the economy. Comments that there are various opinions on the USD at the G7, but declined to comment on FX rates. The Yen is continuing its bid across the board as USD/JPY is testing the 89 handle.

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