Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• US ISM Non Manufacturing comes in a weaker than expectations. EURUSD continues the squeeze higher.
• $EURUSD looks to test upside resistance at 1.4822 (200 hour MA)
• $USDJPY tests intraday support as market consolidates overnight gains
• USDCHF falls below the 100 hour MA at the 1.0231 level
• ADP NFP estimate comes out as expected, but prior month revised higher.
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.4.2009
• GBPUSD boosted by PMI Services today. Bias is positive for the pair
• Nov 4 2009 Forex Market Update
• Challenger job cut announcements drop 51% from a year ago
• Mortgage Applications rise by 8.2% in the current week. Refinancings rise but Purchase index falls
• EURUSD stalls at the 100 hour MA as NY enters the fray
• Eurozone PPI
• UK Services PMI
• Gbp/Jpy trades above 100 hour M/A
• 11-4 Economic Calendar

US ISM Non Manufacturing comes in a weaker than expectations. EURUSD continues the squeeze higher. Posted: 04 Nov 2009 07:07 AM PST US Non Manufacturing came in at 50.6 vs expectation of 51.5 and 50.9 last month.  INVENTORY came in at  43.0 vs 47.5 last month  BACKLOGS INDEX  came in at  53.5 vs 51.5 last month  PRICES INDEX  came in at  53.0 vs 48.8 last month  EMPLOYMENT INDEX  came in at  41.1 vs44.3 last month  ORDERS INDEX  came in at  55.6 vs. 54.2 last month Despite the weaker data, the EURUSD first declined (to a low of 1.4798) but then shot higher above resistance defined by the 200 hour MA (at 1.4822)  The price has extended to a high of 1.4835 on stop buying on the disappointing reaction.  Shorts are feeling the squeeze.

$EURUSD looks to test upside resistance at 1.4822 (200 hour MA) Posted: 04 Nov 2009 06:50 AM PST The high from yesterday at 1.4810 and the 200 hour MA at the 1.4822 level should provide some profit taking resistance for the pair.   Look for sellers against the level.  A break targets 1.4845 and then the double top at the 1.4858 level.  ON the downside, look for support now at the 1.4775 level where highs and lows are found on the 5 minute chart (see below).  The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is also moving toward this area..

$USDJPY tests intraday support as market consolidates overnight gains Posted: 04 Nov 2009 06:45 AM PST The USDJPY has been consolidating the gains it attained overnight. The consolidation has allowed the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart to catch up with the market. Now the market has a decision.  Does it extend the move to the upside, or fall through moving average support and correct further.  On a break sown the 90.57 area should provide support. This was the high from yesterdays trade in the pair.  If the price is able to bounce off this support, the 91.06 level is upside resistance. This is where the price stalled today and where the 200 hour MA is found.    A break of this level will next target in the intermediate term the 91.72 level which is the old low from July 2009.  The last high on October 29th peaked at 91.60.

USDCHF falls below the 100 hour MA at the 1.0231 level Posted: 04 Nov 2009 06:00 AM PST As the market awaits the Fed decision this afternoon, the dollar has been under pressure against most currency pairs. The USDCHF is no exception. The price has declined below the 100 hour MA at the 1.0231 level and next looks toward the 200 hour MA at the 1.0197 level.  The price also remains below the 100 and 200 bar moving average on the 5 minute chart at the 1.0242 and 1.0252 levels respectively.  Watch these levels on the upside this morning. The market may continue to be volatile/range bound as it awaits the Fed decision.  There is also key events and data over the next few days with the BOE and ECB Rate desicion and the NFP report on Friday looming.  All have the potential to move the market.

ADP NFP estimate comes out as expected, but prior month revised higher. Posted: 04 Nov 2009 05:29 AM PST The ADP report came out as expected (-203K vs -198K expectations). The prior month was revised higher (lower decline) to -227 from -254K. The -203k reading is the lowest since July 2008 for this series The NFP last month came in at -263K which may suggest a downward revision may be in the cards on Friday.  This has given the EURUSD and GBPUSD a boost.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.4.2009 Posted: 04 Nov 2009 05:25 AM PST Good Morning: The USD and JPY dropped overnight on speculation that the FED will not raise interest rates this afternoon, and that the FED will reiterate  past statements that rates will stay on hold for an “extended period”.  The markets will be looking for any changes in the FOMC’s statement regarding the economy and interest rates. Worldwide equity markets and commodities rose overnight.  Gold reached a record high of $1095/oz.  US Futures are pointing to a positive opening this morning. On the US political front the Democrats lost 2 key Governor races.  Both New Jersey and Virginia favored the Republican candidates, over the Democrats-who were both supported and campaigned for by President Obama. Republicans  will now be the occupants of their statehouses.     Oil:$80.19                   Gold:$1089.12 Today’s data: FOMC Rate Decision at 2:15 PM this afternoon. Have a GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

GBPUSD boosted by PMI Services today. Bias is positive for the pair Posted: 04 Nov 2009 05:08 AM PST The GBPUSD moved higher today on the back of better than expected PMI Services data.  The low for the pair came in at 1.6400 in the quiet range bound Far East session.  In the London session the price stalled first at the 100 hour MA before breaking through at the 1.6435 level.  The break was also confirmed by the technical break of the ceiling on the 5 minute chart as well at that same level (see chart below).  The break led to high of 1,6543 so far today.  The high last week extended up to 1.6603.  The high on Friday reached 1.6578. These levels are obvious targets for the pair.  On the downside, there is support against the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.6488 level currently and moving higher (watch this moving average).  This level is also the 38.2% retracement of the days range.   Look for value buyers against these levels. The BOE will meet tomorrow and decide on the Quantitative Easing desires at that time. THe expectations are that they increase the amount by 50MM pounds to 225M from 175M.  This seems to be expected by the market and priced in.  However, as always the technicals will dictate the bias.  The 5 minute and hourly charts are both positive.  Keep an eye on the key technical levels outlined above. A reminder. The 100 day MA is 1.6362. The price is above this key level so the longer term bias remains positive for the pair. In 11 of the last 13 days, the price has traded above and below this moving average as the market consolidates. Today if the price can remain above the level, this will be only the 3rd day in the last 15 that the price has not touched that line. This is positive from a longer term perspective.  Generally speaking, the price tends to want to move away from the 100 day moving average after a while.

Nov 4 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 04 Nov 2009 07:02 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video. To be added to the daily video email list, please email greg@fxdd.com

Challenger job cut announcements drop 51% from a year ago Posted: 04 Nov 2009 04:37 AM PST The Challenger Job cut announcements versus a year ago fell by 51%.  Last year in October there were 112,884 job cuts announcements. This year the number declined to 55,679 for a 51% decline. This is indicative of a stabilizing/improving job market.  The announced job cuts were led by reductions in automotive companies as they look to ramp up production.  Yesterday, vehicle sales data in the US for October was better than expectations with Domestic sales rising to 7.94M from 6.8M in September and Total Vehicle Sales rising to 10.45M from 9.2M. At 8:15 this morning, the ADP Non Farm Employment estimate is due.  The expectation is for a decline of -198K vs -254K last month.  This data is all a precursor to the Non Farm Payroll/Unemployment Report to be released on Friday at 8:30 in NY.  That is expected to show a declien of -175K vs -263K last month. This would be the highest level (least job losses) since August 2008.

Mortgage Applications rise by 8.2% in the current week. Refinancings rise but Purchase index falls Posted: 04 Nov 2009 04:07 AM PST The Mortgage applications rose by 8.2% in the current week. This was the first increase after 3 straight monthly declines. The Purchase index fell by -1.8%.  While the Refinance Index rose by 14.5%. The average rate fell to 4.97% vs 5.04%. The EURUSD is getting a bump up and has moved above the 100 hour MA at the 1.4763 level. The market broke down from the 1.4775 level yesterday.  As long as the price can remain above the 1.4757/1.4761 area the pair will target the 1.4810 area.

EURUSD stalls at the 100 hour MA as NY enters the fray Posted: 04 Nov 2009 03:54 AM PST The EURUSD has been boosted again today by higher gold prices.  In addition, the PMI Services index was revised higher to 52.6 from 52.3 announced earlier.   This was the highest level since November 2007.   The price has moved up to test the 100 hour MA at the 1.4763 level. If you recall yesterday the price fell after falling below this moving average at the 1.4775 level.  The rise to the level has stalled at the level as NY arrives for the trading day.  The price is at a decision level.  Does it break through with momentum as NY enters or correct back down.  A break targets the high from yesterday at 1.4810.  The 200 hour MA is at 1.4825 and coming down, while the double top of the week or so range comes in at 1.4858.  On the downside, look for support at the 1.4710, and below that level the 1.4683 level which was a double bottom until the  downside was breached yesterday.

Eurozone PPI Posted: 04 Nov 2009 02:02 AM PST Eurozone PPI m/m came in at -0.4%, weaker than the -0.3% expected. Not much market reaction to data as Eur/Usd continues to trade aaround 1.4755.

UK Services PMI Posted: 04 Nov 2009 01:31 AM PST UK Services PMI came in at 56.9, stronger than the 55.5 expected and 55.3 prior reading. Cable got a 20 pip boost on news as Gbp/Usd currently trades at 1.6520.

Gbp/Jpy trades above 100 hour M/A Posted: 03 Nov 2009 11:06 PM PST Gbp/Jpy is trading above its 100 hour M/A of 148.75. If it holds above this level look for a run up to the 200 hour M/A at 149.42. This level should provide good resistance as the 61.8% Fibo lies at 149.42 and an old data line of previous lows adds more resistance (149.43). The pair should be hard pressed to break above the 200 hour.

11-4 Economic Calendar Posted: 03 Nov 2009 08:56 PM PST

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• USDJPY tests 100 hour MA resistance and moves lower
• Factory Orders a touch better. Durable Goods revised higher
• USDJPY moves up toward the 100 hour resistance at the 90.60 level
• Nov 03 2009 Forex Market Update
• $USDCHF breaks to the upside overnight at the 1.0267 level
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.3.2009
• $GBPUSD moves below 100 day MA but bounces again.
• AUDUSD tests trendline support again at 89.13 and bounces toward intraday resistance at 0.8971
• FXDD Free Online Training Nov 3 2009 4pm
• EURUSD moves sharply lower as dollar buying continues
• UK Construction PMI
• Eur/Jpy trading at tricky level
• 11-3 Economic Calendar
• RBA Comments Post Rate Decision
• RBA Rate Decision (AUD/USD)

USDJPY tests 100 hour MA resistance and moves lower Posted: 03 Nov 2009 07:24 AM PST The USDJPY tested the 100 hour MA at the 90.57 level (came down from 90.60) and moved lower.  The pair remains supported at 90.23 still.   Look for range trading buyers to use the level as a backboard to lean against.    I expect buyers against the levels with stops on breaks below the level.

Factory Orders a touch better. Durable Goods revised higher Posted: 03 Nov 2009 07:09 AM PST The Factory Orders came in at +0.9% vs +0.8% expectations. However, Durable Goods orders was revised higher to 1.4% from +1.0%.  This is giving the stocks a little boost and also benefitting the EURUSD (and risk pairs).  The EURUSD continues to have upside resistance against the double bottom of 1.4683 but given the better data, the dips will likely be more shallow (1.4645 area).  A break of 1.4683 should lead to higher levels with 1.4696 and 1.4718 the next targets.

USDJPY moves up toward the 100 hour resistance at the 90.60 level Posted: 03 Nov 2009 06:58 AM PST The USDJPY has been moving higher in the NY session as stock move a bit higher.  Stocks were set for a lower opening earlier today. However, the Berkshire Hathoway purchase of Burlington Northern eased some of the prsssure. This has led to a rebound in some of the risk pairs including the EURJPY and the USDJPY in the process. The pair has reached a high of 90.44 so far and has upside resistance at the 90.60 level where the 100 hour MA is found.  I would expect sellers against this level with further resistance on a move above at the 90.75 level (50% of the move down from the October 27th high to the low).  On the downside, support comes in at 90.23 now.

Nov 03 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 03 Nov 2009 06:37 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video. Sign up for the daily video list by emailing greg@fxdd.com

$USDCHF breaks to the upside overnight at the 1.0267 level Posted: 03 Nov 2009 05:51 AM PST The USDCHF moved higher in the London morning session as speculation that the central bank will continue to prevent appreciation. There were some comments form SNBs Jordan who said the central bank intervention has been successful in halting the currencies rise.  The comments helped push the pair through the trendline resistance at the 1.0267 level which has held the topside on the daily chart since August.  That trendline was tested yesterday and held. Today the break, led to to a sharp move higher. Now that the trendline has been broken the target on the upside looks toward the 1.0410 level. This is the 38.2% retracement level of the move down from the summer high of 1.1022 (the last corrective high for the pair).  Before that, however, look for some resistance at the 1.0352-58 level where there are a few highs from October which halted moves higher at that time. Today, the high has reached 1.0337.  On the downside, look for support down at the 1.0278 level which was the high from yesterday and then at the trendline at the 1.0267. The market should not trade below these levels today. If they do, there is something amiss with the break.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.3.2009 Posted: 03 Nov 2009 05:38 AM PST Good Morning: The RBA (Australia) raised interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, but their statement suggests that they may pause regarding any additional rates hikes. The JPY and USD rose as worldwide equities fell.  With uncertainty in the financial sectors, investors demand for higher-yielding currencies is waning. Global equity market fell, as UBS announced a larger than expected loss.  Speculation  isthat  global economies may take longer than expected to recover. Oil:$77.59                    Gold:$1062.25  Today’s data: Factory Orders:        exp: 1.%          prior: -.8% Vehicle Sales:            exp; 9.8M      prior: 9.2M HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

$GBPUSD moves below 100 day MA but bounces again. Posted: 03 Nov 2009 05:27 AM PST The GBPUSD has traded above and below the 100 day MA for 11 of 13  days. Normally, when the 100 day MA is broken, the price moves away from the level. The fact the price is hanging around the level is indicative of a non-trending market.  What we know about non-trending markets is they look to trend at some point.  The longer it non-trends, the better chance for a trend type move of significance.  We are looking for such a move. So how do you trade it?  The best way to trade it is to look for low risk trades at the most important technical level. For the GBPUSD that is the 100 day MA. This average is going sideways (currently at 1.6361).   If the price is below the level, the bias is down. If the price is above the bias is up.  Unfortunately, the non-trend nature can lead to some whipsaw action.  Today the price dipped below  and went 10 pips only to rebound back above by about 30 pips.  The next major breach to the downside, did have additional downside momentum and the price decline extended to a low of 1,6274.  The price is now back above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart which gives the intraday bias a more of a bullish sentiment once again (or at least suggests the bottom is in place). The upside resistance now comes in against the 200 bar MA at the 1.6356 - not a bad level to sell against with a stop above the 100 day MA at the 1.6361 level.  We will see what happens.

AUDUSD tests trendline support again at 89.13 and bounces toward intraday resistance at 0.8971 Posted: 03 Nov 2009 05:02 AM PST The AUDUSD is testing trendline support once again today, despite the rise in rates by 25 basis points overnight.  The trendline support comes in at the  89.13 level and the low for the day came in at the 89.15.  Yesterday the trendline was testedas well and bounced.  The rise in the Australian rates to 3.5% is the second in what should be a series of increases.  This should normally increase the value of the AUD$. However, it seems the market was disappointed in the comments, or perhaps the hike was all priced in.  As a result, when buyers are not there, the price falls and that is what we saw. How far can it go?  The price should find support on dips. The country is the only of the major nations to be tightening credit at the moment.  This gives it an advantage and that is reflected in the elevated price. Should the rest of the world start to tighten with them, the price will lose some of its luster.  Nevertheless, the pair is considered a risk pair and when risk increases or when too many people are too long, the downside corrections occur.  As a result, watch the support levels below.  If they hold great. If they break, look for some liquidation to the next target.  For the AUDUSD the trendline has held a number of different times already and thus it is a key support level.  On a break, the long term target could take the pair down toward the 87.05 level where the 38.2% retracement of the move up since the summer low, should come into play from a longer term perspective.  That is dependent on a break of the trendline, however and the ability to stay below that trendline.  The holding of the level should find buyers against the level until broken. On the topside, there is resistance currently at the 89.71 level.  This is where the 100 bar MA on the 5 mnute chart is found. A move above this level should see the price move up toward the 200 bar MA at the 0.9012 level.  Watch this level.

FXDD Free Online Training Nov 3 2009 4pm Posted: 03 Nov 2009 05:00 AM PST Hello Everyone. Our next Live online training will be Tuesday at 4pm. Sign up below. Host: Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell Date: Tuesday, November 3, 2009 Time: 4:00 pm, Eastern Standard Time (New York, GMT-05:00) (Please note that we have just switched to daylight savings time and the show is one hour earlier than you may be used to) ——————————————————- To register for this training session ——————————————————- Go to https://fxdd.webex.com/fxdd/k2/j.php?ED=112658517&UID=1027272032&RT=MiMxMQ%3D%3D&FM=1 and register. Once you are approved by the host, you will receive a confirmation email with instructions for joining the session. The training will take place at http://FXDD.Webex.com

EURUSD moves sharply lower as dollar buying continues Posted: 03 Nov 2009 04:31 AM PST The stock markets around the globe fell overnight and the Dow is looking weak as the day gets underway.  Oil prices are down about a $1.00 as well.    The EURUSD responded by falling quite dramatically in the London session.  Along the way the price fell back through the 100 hour MA at the 1.4775 level. The prior day close at 1.4772.  Finally, the momentum down pushed the price through the double bottom at the 1.4683 level.   This helped accelerate the decline in the pair.  The high for the day extended up to the 1.4810 level in the first few hours of trading as the market continued to struggle to find it’s direction  -before the decline.  The pair tested downside support at the 1.4624 level and has bounced. We will watch that level on the price declines. Below that level, the longer term target at the 1.4560 level looms (38.  On the topside,  the 1.4683 level double bottom should be a level of resistance.  Above that the 1.4710 level which is the 38.2% retracement level of the move down from yesterday.

UK Construction PMI Posted: 03 Nov 2009 01:34 AM PST UK Construction PMIcame in at 46.2, weaker than the 47.2 expected and 46.7 prior reading. Weak number for GBP which has been getting hit most of the session. currently Gbp/Usd is trading just off its low at 1.6300-05.

Eur/Jpy trading at tricky level Posted: 03 Nov 2009 12:26 AM PST Eur/Jpy is trading right around session lows after coming off just over 100 points. The 38.2% Fibo retracement using Oct. 29 high of 135.97 and Oct 30 low of 130.94 lies at 132.86. The pair has had a hard time to make a clean break below this level. If it does the pair may be in for a severe drop, possibly down to 131.00. If it holds look for a rebound to 133.50, the 50% Fibo lies at 133.46.

11-3 Economic Calendar Posted: 02 Nov 2009 08:45 PM PST

RBA Comments Post Rate Decision Posted: 02 Nov 2009 07:46 PM PST Global economic recovery likely to continue in 2010. Rate hikes to have inflation consistent with the targets. Expansion to be modest in major economies. Aussie and Asian trading partners prospects are better. AUD rise to consttrain trade. Growth in China has been very strong and is having an impact on other economies in the region. Growth to be close to the trend in the year ahead. Risk of serious economic contraction has passed. Prudent to lessen monetary stimulus. Global financial sentiment much better. Business borrowing has been declining. Australian economy is stronger than expected. Home borrowing has been solid. Measures of confidence have recovered. Inflation has been declining, will continue to moderate in the near term. CPI to be consistent with target in 2010. Medium term investment prospects are strengthening. Jobless rate to peak at lower than expected level, there are early signs of job market improvement. The AUD continued lower across the board following the accompanying RBA comments.

RBA Rate Decision (AUD/USD) Posted: 02 Nov 2009 07:35 PM PST The RBA rate decision came in as expected and the rates were raised by 25 basis points to 3.5%. Ahead of this we have seen the AUD have a tremendous sell off early in yesterday’s Asian session only to see the AUD/USD pair quickly rebound. The pair gained a further bid today on the back of rising commodity prices. On the chart below we see that once again the pair hit the trendline support yesterday before rebounding and another test could be in the future, the AUD has moved lower on this positive for the currency, first before the release and then further down after the release.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD races through the 100 hour MA at the 1.4782 level
• US Data much better than expectations
• USDJPY falls early on and rebounds. 89.83 floor. Above 90.09 positive.
• Nov 2 2009 Forex Market Update
• GBPUSD up and down day again. The 1.6344 is the days floor and 1.6397 and 1.6431 provide upside resistance.
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.2.2009
• $EURUSD move up to test 100 hour MA and backs off. Looking for NY direction.
• US ISM Manufacturing Index due at 10:00 AM today
• UK Manufacturing PMI
• EUR Final Manufacturing PMI
• Swiss SVME PMI
• Sterling breaks below 100 hour M/A
• Aussie Commodity Prices
• 11-2 Economic Calendar
• TD Securities Inflation (AUD)

EURUSD races through the 100 hour MA at the 1.4782 level Posted: 02 Nov 2009 07:10 AM PST The better than expected us data at 10 AM shot the EURUSD through the 100 hour MA at the 1.4782 level.  The price approaches resistance at the 1.4827 level where the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the  double top from last week at 1.5061 level.  Given the better data, I would expect good buyers on dips.  The 1.4795 level should provide support now (old high for the day).

US Data much better than expectations Posted: 02 Nov 2009 07:05 AM PST ISM rose to 55.7 from 52.6 last month and expectations of 53.0.   The Price index rose to 65 from 63.5.    The Pending Home sales rose 6.1% which was also much higher than expectation of 0.0% . Finally Construction Spending rose by 0.8% vs expectations of a -0.2% decline. All the numbers are much better than expectations and as a result, we are seeing a move into the risky currency pairs. The USDJPY is up strongly, the EURUSD is ups, GBPUSD is up, USDCHF is down, commodity pairs are also higher. Stocks are up, Gold is up, oil is up.

USDJPY falls early on and rebounds. 89.83 floor. Above 90.09 positive. Posted: 02 Nov 2009 06:53 AM PST Over the weekend the USDJPY fell sharply on the back of expectation of lower stocks from CIT bankruptcy and perhaps more bank closures over the weekend.  The price gapped through support at the 89.89 level and fell to a low of 89.17 in the first hour.  From there the price started it’s sharp rebound.  which has taken the price back above the 89.89 level and the close from Friday at 90.00.  The high reached 90.30.  For today, the price is back above the 100 bar MA on the short term chart at the 90.06 level.  The price has been below and above this line on a number of occassions today, but has used the level as a point of reflection when approached.  Below the moving average, watch the 89.83-89 to continue to provide support.  A break should target 89.60 area.  On the upside,  the 90.30 level is next resistance. This is the high for the day

Nov 2 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 02 Nov 2009 06:50 AM PST New Video Pending Please email greg@fxdd.com if you would like to be added to the email list to receive Forex market videos each day. Daily videos are no longer being sent through Metatrader at this time.

GBPUSD up and down day again. The 1.6344 is the days floor and 1.6397 and 1.6431 provide upside resistance. Posted: 02 Nov 2009 05:45 AM PST The GBPUSD fell on the opening, recovered and sold off again. The pair continues it’s volatile trade making grasping on to a trend difficult.  Traders should pay attention to technical clues and keep risk to a minimum. IF one of the sharp moves can be gained, find the target and take some profit, as market reverses are pretty deep. From a technical basis now, the price has been able to remain below the 100 hour MA for the last 6 hours.  The last test took the price right up to the line and backed off. This level comes in at 1.6431 currently and although 70 pips away from the current price, look for sellers against this level today (put a star by that moving average).  Before that level look for sellers against the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.6397 level.  ON the downside, there is an intraday floor developing at the 1.6344 to 1.6352 level.  Five of the last 6 hours has had bottoms in this range.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.2.2009 Posted: 02 Nov 2009 05:26 AM PST Good Morning: The USD and JPY fell overnight as demand increases for higher-yielding assets.  Signs that global economies are starting to recover from the worst economic slump in over 60 years are  moving investors to seek riskier investments. CIT, the 101 year commercial lender filed for Chapter 11 yesterday.  The US government lent CIT $2.3 billion USD, but it is widely viewed that the US will not recover any of the money lent to CIT. Asian equity markets were mixed, and European equities are higher at this time.  US Futures are pointing to a positive opening this morning.  Ford Motor-the only US automaker who took no US government funds, and did  not file for bankruptcy, posted a $997 million USD profit.  This is the first operating profit since early 2008.  They are stating that they will have “solidly profitable” by 2011. Oil:$77.77                                 Gold:$1054.10  Today’s Data: ISM MFG:                                exp: 53.0                 prior: 52.6 Pending Home Sales:          exp: .4%                   prior: 6.4% Cont Spending:                      exp: -.4%                 prior: .8% Have a GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

$EURUSD move up to test 100 hour MA and backs off. Looking for NY direction. Posted: 02 Nov 2009 05:11 AM PST The EURUSD moved up this morning on the back of mover risk tolerance it seems. The PMI data came out as expected at 50.7.  Although as expected it was the first move above the 50 level which signals growth in the sector, since May 2008. The low reached 33.5 in February 2009.  From a technical basis, the price reached a low of 1.4703 which was a pip short of the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the October low to the October high.  On the topside, the high today breached the 100 hour MA at the 1.4786 level - moving to a high of 1.4795.   However, the price has moved back down below that key moving average level and has not been able to close above this key level  today. A move and close above is needed to excite the bulls. Going forward, there should be resistance at the 100 hour MA at 1.4784.  A move back above this level should look toward the 1.4830 (close from Thursday) and 1.4840 level (38.2% of the October high low range). On the downside, there is intraday short term support at the 1.4767 level (100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart -blue line in the 5 minute chart above) and below that the 1.4751 level (200 bar MA level on the same chart - green line).  If the price can hold these levels, it is likely we extend the upside range today.  Look for buyers on dips against these levels.  A break targets the low from Friday at 1.4716 and below that the low support at 1.4702 once again.

US ISM Manufacturing Index due at 10:00 AM today Posted: 02 Nov 2009 04:55 AM PST The US ISM Manufacturing Index is due at 10 AM today. The expectation is for a gain to 53.0 from 52.60 last month.  The index bottomed at 32.9 in December 2009. Since then the index has risen 8 of the last 9 months.  Last month was the first dip in the index over that time period.  The price index is expected to show an increase to 64.00 from 63.5 last month. This also bottomed in December 2008 at a low 18 value.  Like the ISM index, this measure has risen for 8 of the last 9 months with last month being the only decline.  There are inflation hawks out there but it relies on a sharp increase in demand and with unemployment still depressed, the economy is likely to remain ho hum and inflation is likely to follow suit.

UK Manufacturing PMI Posted: 02 Nov 2009 01:36 AM PST The GBP caught a bid across the board as Octobers Manufacturing PMI in the UK was 53.7; much better than its forecast of 50.0 and prior reading of 49.5.  Sterling traded up slightly prior to the release of the number than shot up 40 pips to the 1.6400 handle upon the better than expected release. It has than come off slightly and is trading at 1.6385 against the USD.

EUR Final Manufacturing PMI Posted: 02 Nov 2009 01:09 AM PST Manufacturing PMI in the Eurozone for October came in as expected at 50.7 which caused the EUR to catch a modest bid and push a new session high of 1.4784 against the USD. Since then, it has pulled back and it currently trading at 1.4770.

Swiss SVME PMI Posted: 02 Nov 2009 12:32 AM PST Swiss SVME PMI for October came in at 54.0 versus its forecast of 54.8 and prior reading of 54.3, but  the CHF had little reaction to the release.

Sterling breaks below 100 hour M/A Posted: 02 Nov 2009 12:17 AM PST Gbp/Usd has broken below its 100 hour M/A of 1.6430 and has since lost another 80 pips to trade down to 1.6350. There may be support at 1.6338, which is a trendline of old hourly lows. If that level hold look for the pair to rebound to 1.6385-90 area. A break below 1.6338 can see the trade below 1.6300.  The former is  a more likely scenario in the short run.

Aussie Commodity Prices Posted: 01 Nov 2009 09:37 PM PST Australian Commodity Prices (y/y) came in at -45.2% versus its prior reading of -32.3%. The market showed a limited reaction to the release as the AUD trades off session highs.

11-2 Economic Calendar Posted: 01 Nov 2009 08:45 PM PST

TD Securities Inflation (AUD) Posted: 01 Nov 2009 03:50 PM PST The Australian inflation readings for October came in lower month over month, but slightly lower year over year to a muted reaction, as the market tries to recover after an abrupt move on the open. TD Securities Inflation (MoM%) - Actual:-0.3% Prior:0.0% TD Securities Inflation (YoY%) - Actual:1.25   Prior:1.3%

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