Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Canada Ivey falls sharply to 48.4. $USDCAD rises sharply.
• $AUDUSD bouncing higher after correction
• Forex Morning Report - Jan 7th
• EURUSD still in a range with a bearish bias
• Initial Claims come in at 434K. As expected.
• Another test of the 1.5895 level in the GBPUSD holds
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.7.2009
• USDJPY moves toward key resistance against 200 day MA
• BOE keeps rates unchanged. Keeps bond purchase at 200B pounds. GBPUSD finds some short covering.
• Janaury 7th 2009 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• BoE leaves rates unchanged; Q.E. for one more month
• German Factory Orders off expectations
• Eurozone retail sales poor
• Halifax House Prices (UK)

Canada Ivey falls sharply to 48.4. $USDCAD rises sharply. Posted: 07 Jan 2010 05:58 AM PST The expectation was for a decline to 52.0 from 55.9 but the fall to 48.4 was a surprise.  The fall has led to a sharp rise in the USDCAD with the price moving above the 100 and 200 bar MAs on the 5 mnute chart at the 1.0322 and 1.0325 levels respectively. The key target on the topside remains the 1.0405/15 area.  Look for buyers on dips now with  support at the 1.0325 key.

$AUDUSD bouncing higher after correction Posted: 07 Jan 2010 05:31 AM PST In Australia last night, Retail Sales came up higher than expectations at +1.4% versus the expectations of a gain of 0.3%.  Leading the gains was spending on clothes which rose 2.5 percent, household goods sales rose by 1.7 percent and food sales rose by 1.6%. The MoM gain was the largest increase in 8 months and initially led to a sharp rise in the AUDUSD. However, profit taking entered with the dollar buying, and the AUDUSD fell.  The correction took the price down to the 61.8% retracement support of the two day rally. Now the price is recovering.  The price moved back above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the  0.9187 level and looks to test the 200 bar MA on same chart at the 0.9202 (see chart above). The bias turned positive above the 100 bar MA (0.9187 currently) and the bullish bias will be further confirmed on a move above the 0.9202 level. The fundamentals support the move. Let’s see if the technicals can do the same.

Forex Morning Report - Jan 7th Posted: 07 Jan 2010 05:15 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

EURUSD still in a range with a bearish bias Posted: 07 Jan 2010 04:41 AM PST The EURUSD remains contained by the range that has prevailed for the last few trading weeks. The high/low range over the period comes in at the 1.4484 to 1.4217, with an inside range of 1.4446 and 1.4261 (see chart levels above).  The midpoint of the range comes in at the 1.4350 level. The 100 and 200 bar moving average on the hourly chart comes in at the 1.4382 and 1.4374 levels respectively.  With the price below the midpoint (1.4350) and the 100 and 200 hour moving averages (1.4374 and 1.4382), the bias is to the downside for the pair as we continue to look for a trendline like move, with a break out of the range.  The next targets on the downside that needs to be broken are the 1.4261 level and then the low at 1.4217.    Non trend markets tend to develop a feeling that all levels are important and will not be broken.   They have the potential to start to trend on breaks. So be aware.

Initial Claims come in at 434K. As expected. Posted: 07 Jan 2010 04:31 AM PST Continuing Claims come in at 4802K.  Both are in line with expectations but suggest a employment situation that is getting better slowly but surely. The next stop, the US monthly employment report to be released tomorrow at 8:30.  The expectation is for no new Non Farm Payroll jobs added or subtracted. This would be the first non negative number since December 2007.

Another test of the 1.5895 level in the GBPUSD holds Posted: 07 Jan 2010 04:25 AM PST The GBPUSD pounded on the 1.5895 support level again and moved back higher.  The levels importance is increased on each successful test.  The 1.5936 level and the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.5941 level currently are still targets.  Above that 1.5957 comes into play.  The market is testing the will of the bears at this level.  Longer term, as long as the bias remains to the downside, the longer term target for the GBPUSD is the 1.5833 level (low from November) and below that level the 1.5689 which is the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the January 2009 low to the high reached in early August 2009

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.7.2009 Posted: 07 Jan 2010 04:20 AM PST Good Morning: On his first day as Japan’s Finance Minister, Naoto Kan made comments that he would welcome a weaker JPY. His wish came true as the JPY fell.  Kan’s concern is that a  rising JPY may hurt the  Japanese economy at a time when  global economies are starting to see the light at the end of the “recession tunnel”. World equity markets fell as comments by Chinese central bankers  stated that they will be focusing on controlling record loan growth  in 2010.  This concerned investors about the pace of economic growth not only in China but worldwide. Oil:$82.29                             Gold:$ 1129.10 Today’s Data:   8:30A.M. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS JAN.2 440K     432K 8:30A.M. CONTINUING CLAIMS DEC.26 5000K    4981K HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

USDJPY moves toward key resistance against 200 day MA Posted: 07 Jan 2010 04:19 AM PST The USDJPY is moving higher this morning on the back of new Finance Ministers comment that he supports a weaker Yen.  The price is approaching key resistance against the 200 day MA at the 93.56 level. There should be sellers against the levels with stops if the key moving average can be broken.  This level today will be the key level for the USDJPY.  Intraday support comes in at the 50% retracement of the move down from the April 2009 high to the November 2009 low (see Daily Chart above).  Further downside support would come at the 92.90 level which is the 38.2% retracement of the days trading range.    The USDJPY is somewhat overbought at the moment as evidence from the distance between the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (blue line above) and the current price.  With key 200 day MA resistance looming, look for some slowing/consolidation of the move higher. This will allow the moving averages to catch up with the market price.  From that point the market can decide if it wants to extend higher or correct further.

BOE keeps rates unchanged. Keeps bond purchase at 200B pounds. GBPUSD finds some short covering. Posted: 07 Jan 2010 03:37 AM PST The BOE decision to keep the bond purchase steady at 200B pounds has given the GBPUSD a little boost after falling sharply overnight.  The pair has found some support at the 1.5900 level (with a double low off the 5 minute chart at the 1.5895 level).  However, the bias continues to be down for the pair with the price moving away from range that has confined the trading over the last few days.  If the 1.5895 lows hold, there is topside resistance this morning at the 1.5936 level where the low from yesterday is found (1 on chart) .  The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute comes in at 1.5950 currently (and moving down - 2 on chart). The 38.2% of the move down today comes in at 1.5957 (3 on chart).

Janaury 7th 2009 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 07 Jan 2010 03:24 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

BoE leaves rates unchanged; Q.E. for one more month Posted: 07 Jan 2010 03:00 AM PST BoE leaves official bank rate unchanged at 0.5%. Quantitative Easing program to take one more month to complete. Q.E. stays at 200 bln sterling. Gbp/Usd trading at session lows of 1.5898.

German Factory Orders off expectations Posted: 07 Jan 2010 02:04 AM PST German Factory Orders m/m came in at 0.2%, weaker than the 1.6% expected, but an improvement over the -2.1% prior reading. Bad news for the Euro as this session’s theme of buying dollars continues. Eur/Usd is down to 1.4335, a new low.

Eurozone retail sales poor Posted: 07 Jan 2010 12:58 AM PST Eurozone retail sales m/m came in at -1.2%, weaker than the 0.0% expected and 0.0% prior reading. Earlier in the session German retail sales came in very poor setting the stage for poor eurozone figures. Eur/Usd sold off 10 minutes prior to release. the market was surely anticipating a negative number. The pair currently trades at 1.4353.

Halifax House Prices (UK) Posted: 06 Jan 2010 11:58 PM PST Halifax HPI m/m came in at 1.0%, stronger than the 0.55 expected, but weaker than the prior reading of 1.4%. Gbp/Usd was at its lows at time of release of better than expected figure. The pair is up 20 points thus far , trading at 1.5932.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• GBPUSD stays heavy and takes out the days lows
• EURUSD making a little move lower. Watching to see if the momentum can be maintained.
• Jan 06 2010 Forex Market Update
• $USDCAD stays below 1.0405 resistance and moves lower. Test support at 1.0335/47
• USDCHF keeps the 100 day MA as the level to watch today
• USDJPY falls below intraday support at 92.23
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.6.2010
• EURUSD stuck in the range still. Watching 1.4371 level today.
• ADP comes in at -84K
• January 6th 2009 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Challenger job cuts came in at -72.9 vs a year ago.
• French President Sarkozy looks for weaker Eur/Usd
• Eur/Usd lower on negative Industrial New Orders
• Eurozone Industrial New Orders & PPI

GBPUSD stays heavy and takes out the days lows Posted: 06 Jan 2010 05:57 AM PST The GBPUSD remains pressured below the 1.5988 level and has taken out the low for the day at the 1.5943.  The new low is 1.5936. Resistance now comes at 1.5964 which is the low from yesterday’s trade. If the price can remain below this level, the market bears will remain in charge and a more substantial decline can be explored.  Watch the 1.5964 level.

EURUSD making a little move lower. Watching to see if the momentum can be maintained. Posted: 06 Jan 2010 05:43 AM PST The EURUSD has moved below the 1.4350  level where the 100 bar moving on the 5 minute chart is found.  The bias is trying to look back down the downside.  Next target to get through is at the 1.4334.  The price is also below the 1.4371 level which is the 100 hour MA on the hourly chart.

Jan 06 2010 Forex Market Update Posted: 06 Jan 2010 05:30 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video. Next Online Training Thursday Jan 7th at 4pm - Details Here

$USDCAD stays below 1.0405 resistance and moves lower. Test support at 1.0335/47 Posted: 06 Jan 2010 05:24 AM PST The 1.0405/15 level was old floor support for the USDCAD and it is now becoming a ceiling resistance over the last 2 trading days.  The failure to move back above this key level and higher gold prices has led to some downside pressure in the pair. However, we continue to watch support at the 1.0335/1.0346 level.  Abreak below looks toward the 1.0300 as the continued probe lower continues for the pair. Upside resistance short term watch 1.0367 which was lows from earlier in the trading day today.

USDCHF keeps the 100 day MA as the level to watch today Posted: 06 Jan 2010 04:46 AM PST The USDCHF’s key level to be aware of today is the 100 day moving average which comes in at the 1.0299 level today. The low today reached 1.0310 so far today. The pair has been pressured of late after a run up overnight.  Yesterday the price moved back above the key moving average after closing below it on the first trading day of the year.  The move back down today is keeping the market neutral. Looking at the hourly chart the price has closed below the 100 hour MA at the 1.0333 level currently for the last 5 trading hours.  This level will be upside resistance now for the USDCHF as we continue to search for low risk trading opportunities.  Eventually the market will look to move away from these levels but the markets apathy seems to have a grip on the market.  The ISM Non Manufacturing is the next release at 10 AM with the expectation of the index rising back above the 50 level at 50.5e.  The FOMC minutes will be released at 2;00 PM this afternoon.

USDJPY falls below intraday support at 92.23 Posted: 06 Jan 2010 04:32 AM PST The USDJPY is testing support against the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 92.23 level. A move below would be switch the bias down and should target lower levels for the USDJPY.  The USDJPY has retraced most of the decline from yesterday’s trade.  Support next comes in at the 92.01 level where the 38.2% retracement of the move up from yesterdays low comes in, along with the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart.  Upside resistance comes in at the 92.30 level now.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.6.2010 Posted: 06 Jan 2010 04:18 AM PST Good Morning: The JPY dropped versus the USD as the  global economic  recovery lessens demand for the JPY as a safe haven.  Also contributing to the JPY’s fall is the news that Japanese Finance Minister Fujji has resigned.  The USD stayed positive as speculation that this weeks economic data will add additional proof that the US economy is moving towards recovery. Asian equity markets were mixed, Europe is lower at this time. US Futures  are also pointing to a lower opening. Oil is slightly higher, as freezing temperatures continue to grip the US.  Metals were also higher.  Concerns that  icy winter weather  may disrupt production and delivery schedules also added to the gains. Oil:$81.56                     Gold:$1122.80   TODAY’S RELEASES TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 7:30 A.M. CHALLENGER JOB CUTS YoY DEC. -72.3% 8:15A.M. ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE DEC. -78K -169K 10:00A.M. ISM-NON MANF.COMPOSITE DEC. 5O.5 48.7O HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

EURUSD stuck in the range still. Watching 1.4371 level today. Posted: 06 Jan 2010 04:15 AM PST The 100 hour MA is at the 1.4371. The 200 hour MA is at the 1.4362 level. The midpoint of the range since Dec 22nd comes in at 1.4350. The price is 1.4363.  A move above 1.4371 would give a bullish bias. Below is a bearish bias.  The market is non-trending and we continue to look for a move either up or down.   Be on alert.

ADP comes in at -84K Posted: 06 Jan 2010 04:11 AM PST This is lower than expectations of a decline fo -75K.  The US NFP is expected to come in at 0K on Friday.  This report tends to be more negative by about -50K.

January 6th 2009 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 06 Jan 2010 03:38 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

Challenger job cuts came in at -72.9 vs a year ago. Posted: 06 Jan 2010 03:32 AM PST Challenger job cuts came in at -72.9 vs a year ago. The planned cuts fell to 45,094 vs 166,348 a year ago.  Compared to last month, the planned job cuts fell from 50,349.  This is the 5th straight decline.  This is also at the lowest level since December 2007. This data is showing improving job prospects. The ADP Employment Change report will be released at 8:15 AM with expectations of a decline of 75K. Last month the estimate showed a decline of -169K which was much lower than the actual NFP report which showed at -11K decline. The expectation for NFP is for a decline of 0K - the first month that has not been negative since December 2007.

French President Sarkozy looks for weaker Eur/Usd Posted: 06 Jan 2010 02:08 AM PST French President Nicolas Sarkozy said the weakness of the dollar against the euro was “a considerable problem.”

Eur/Usd lower on negative Industrial New Orders Posted: 06 Jan 2010 01:15 AM PST It wasn’t an immediate reaction but the Eur/Usd has now reacted to the negative new industrial order figures from 20 minutes earlier. The pair currently trades at 1.4357, off about 20 points.

Eurozone Industrial New Orders & PPI Posted: 06 Jan 2010 12:59 AM PST Eurozone New Industrial Orders m/m came in at -2.2%, weaker than the -1.0% expected. Y/Y came in at -14.5%, weaker than the -11.0% expected. PPI m/m came in at 0.1%, weaker than the 0.2% expected and inline with last reading of 0.2%. Y/Y came in at -4.4%, slightly stronger than the -4.5% expected and stronger than prior reading of -6.7%. Eur/Usd is trading just off its high at 1.4377. Thus far no major market reaction to figures.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Pending Home sales miserable for November. Factory Orders strong
• EURUSD breaks below the 1.4400 level. Will we start to trend?
• FXDD Online Training Thursday Jan 7th 2010 4pm
• Jan 5 2010 Forex Morning Report
• $EURUSD in the meat of the trading range
• AUDUSD non trending. Watch 0.9148. Correction may be coming.
• Canada Raw Material and Industrial Prices higher than expectation
• GBPUSD watching the 1.6071 key resistance level today
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.5.2010
• USDCAD moves to test support. Price remains below the 100 bar moving average resistance.
• January 5th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary
• Eurozone CPI Estimate
• UK Construction PMI
• German Unemployment Change
• Sterling retraces half of move down from yesterday’s high

Pending Home sales miserable for November. Factory Orders strong Posted: 05 Jan 2010 06:01 AM PST The Pending Home sales plunged -16% which is the first decline in 10 months but is an oversized decline. The thought is the incentive uncertainty for new buyers caused the sharp decline.  In recent weeks mortgage rates have also increased which may also put sales on hold going forward. Housing continues to remain a thorn in the Fed and banks sides.  On a positive note, Factory Orders for November increased by 1.1% vs expectations of a 0.5% increase. The prior month was also revised higher to +0.8% from +0.6%.  If you strip out transportation, the orders wer up 1.9%. The market is confused as to direction given the conflicting reports.  However, it seems the dollar is a little weaker.  The market will likely look toward Friday’s Unemployment report for the major directional clues.

EURUSD breaks below the 1.4400 level. Will we start to trend? Posted: 05 Jan 2010 05:42 AM PST The EURUSD has moved below the 1.4400 floor. Look for the sellers against the level with stops on a move back above close from yesterday at 1.4413.  The 1.4370 is the next downside target for the pair.  The 100 hour MA is also near that level currently. The EURUSD is in a non trending mode as moving averages (100 and 200 bar moving averages in both the 5 minute and hourly charts above) are going more or less sideways and also are starting to converge.  This normally leads to a trend like move.  We are on alert for such a move today.  Watch the key levels and look for momentum on breaks of key levels.

FXDD Online Training Thursday Jan 7th 2010 4pm Posted: 05 Jan 2010 05:31 AM PST FXDD’s next Online Training is Thursday Jan 7th 2010 at 4pm New York Time (Eastern) Register here for the next class

Jan 5 2010 Forex Morning Report Posted: 05 Jan 2010 05:30 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

$EURUSD in the meat of the trading range Posted: 05 Jan 2010 05:21 AM PST The EURUSD is back in the meat of the trading range over the last few days. The bottom is defined by support at 1.4400 and the topside is defined by 1.4432/37.  The price is currently below the 100 and 200 bar moving averages on the 5 minute charts and this gives a bearish intraday bias.  A break of the 1.4400 level should lead to further selling pressure with the 1.4370 level being the next downside target, with

AUDUSD non trending. Watch 0.9148. Correction may be coming. Posted: 05 Jan 2010 04:47 AM PST The 61.8 % retracement of the move down from the November high at the 0.9405 to the December low at 0.8733 comes in at the 0.9148 level. The price moved above this level today but has come back down below this level currently.  Watch the level. The market surge may be ready for a correction lower.

Canada Raw Material and Industrial Prices higher than expectation Posted: 05 Jan 2010 04:38 AM PST The Raw Material and Industrial Product Prices rose more than expectations coming in at +2.2% and 1.0% respectively. The expectations were for a gain of 1.1% and 0.5%.  The USDCAD has rallied higher since the release and approaches the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart currently at the 1.0372 level.  Additional resistance comes in at the 1.0379 level.  Look for supprot at the 1.0359 level now. If it is able to hold the support, we should see a further move higher in the pair today.

GBPUSD watching the 1.6071 key resistance level today Posted: 05 Jan 2010 04:26 AM PST The GBPUSDs 200 day moving average comes in at the 1.6071 level today. This is a key level to stay below for the bears today.  As a result, look for sellers against the level with buying on breaks above.  The 100 bar moving average is also up near this level (currently at 1.6065 and moving lower).  The market will pay attention to this level as well today.  Finally, on the hourly chart (see chart below), the price is currently between the 100 and 200 hour MA level (blue and green moving average line).  Those levels come in at the 1.6048 and 1.6015 level respectively. When the price falls between these moving averages (between the “goal Posts” in FXDD talk), the market is thought to be in a neutral stance - awaiting a break above or below the moving average levels. So traders can watch these levels for clues to intraday direction.    On the downside, the low at 1.5987 was just below the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the December 30th low of 1.5832 and the January 4th high of 1.6245.   This is a positive for the pair and does keep the bulls in the ball game today.  Overall, the technicals have a little something for everyone.  Watch the 100 and 200 hour MA. Moves above and below will be eyed for directional bias.  Watch the 1.6071 level (a move above confirms upside). Watch the 1.5988 level.  A move below that level should solidify the downside.  Be aware. Be prepared.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.5.2010 Posted: 05 Jan 2010 04:06 AM PST Good Morning: The USD was fairly stable in overnight FX markets.  GBP/USD did dip through 1.60-but has since recovered to the 1.60 handle. Today’s economic calender is fairly quiet with Factory Orders,Pending Home Sales, and Auto Sales.  I do not think that any one of these economic reports will have  a lot  of impact- but investors will watch the Auto Sales data to guage if consumer spending is actually on the rise. World equity markets are higher and US Futures are also pointing to a higher opening this morning. Oil is higher today-and Gold moved up a few dollars overnight. Oil:$81.78                                        Gold:$1126.80         TODAY’S RELEASES TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 10:00A.M. FACTORY ORDERS NOV. 0.50% 0.60% 10:00A.M. PENDING HOME SALES MoM NOV. -2.00% 3.70% 10:00A.M. PENDING HOME SALES YoY NOV.   28.60%   TOTAL VEHICLE SALES   DEC. 11.00M 10.92M   DOMESTIC VEHICLE SALES DEC. 8.31M 8.36M HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

USDCAD moves to test support. Price remains below the 100 bar moving average resistance. Posted: 05 Jan 2010 03:45 AM PST The USDCAD has moved lower in early NY trade and tests the 1.0346 level.  The last time the pair was down at this level in October 2009, the pair used this price area as support/resistance during a consolidation period at that time (see chart above from that period).  Additional support from that time period comes in at the 1.0300 level.  The USDCAD has been helped by higher commodity prices. Oil is up again today  by a modes $0.22 and Gold is also up. Both benefit the Canadian dollar and the market seems to be focused on those intermarket clues for the pairs price bias.  At 8:30 MA the Industrial Product and Raw Material Price indices will be released. The expectation is for a gain of 0.5% and 1.1% respectively on a month on month basis for November.  On the topside, the breaking of the 1.0405/15 level and the ability to use the level as a ceiling today, increases the importance of the level for upside resistance. Before that level look for resistance at the 1.0359 level which was the earlier  low from today.  Additional resistance comes in at the 1.0375 level where the 100 bar Moving average on the 5 minute chart is located. This moving average is moving lower so watch it closely. Look for profit taking buying at current levels to slow the decline, but the corrective move higher will be telling. If it is mild, look for selling pressure to continue.

January 5th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary Posted: 05 Jan 2010 03:28 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

Eurozone CPI Estimate Posted: 05 Jan 2010 12:56 AM PST Eurozone CPI Estimate y/y came in at 0.9% as forecasted, an improvement over the prior reading of 0.5%. Eur/Usd remains to trade at 1.4430 with no market impact.

UK Construction PMI Posted: 05 Jan 2010 12:27 AM PST UK Construction PMI came in at 47.1, weaker than the 47.4 expected and a slight improvement over the prior reading of 47.0. Gbp/Usd is trading slightly off since the release. Currently the pair trades at 1.6067.

German Unemployment Change Posted: 04 Jan 2010 11:56 PM PST German Unemployment Change came in at -3,000, an improvement over the 6000 rise expected. Eur/Usd did get a small lift trading up 10 points to 1.4422. Though a positive for the Euro , this figure is generally viewed as a lagging indicator.

Sterling retraces half of move down from yesterday’s high Posted: 04 Jan 2010 09:52 PM PST Gbp/Usd is currently trading just beneath the 50% Fibo retracement of the move down from 1.6240 to 1.6064. The next level of resistance should be 1.6173 which is the 61.8% Fibo. If these levels hold a move back down below 1.6100 is likely. a break above should bring us back to 1.6240.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• ISM Manufacturing Index rises to 55.9 from 53.6. Higher than expectations
• $EURUSD. Watching support 1.4411/18
• $USDCAD falls on higher oil. Watch 1.0405/15 level
• January 4th 2009 NY Morning Forex Report is available for viewing
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.4.2010
• $USDJPY. Is the pair looking to transition into a trend from a non-trend market? Watch the clues.
• For the USDCHF today, watch the 100 day moving average at 1.0311
• EURUSD remains supported in quiet trade. 1.4362/72 is support area to watch today.
• New York hits GBPUSD in early trade as the market focuses back on the dollar buying - for now.
• January 4th 2009 NY Opening Forex Report
• UK Economic Data
• 1-4 Economic Calendar
• HSBC Manufacturing PMI
• AIG Manufacturing Index

ISM Manufacturing Index rises to 55.9 from 53.6. Higher than expectations Posted: 04 Jan 2010 05:56 AM PST PRICES-PAID INDEX 61.5 VS 55.0 ORDER BACKLOG INDEX 50.0 VS 52.0 EMPLOYMENT INDEX 52.0 VS 50.8 INVENTORIES INDEX 43.4 VS 41.3 NEW ORDERS INDEX 65.5 VS 60.3 There is modest dollar selling off the number.  Overall, fairly quiet.  The EURUSD did hold the support at the 1.4411/18 level.  We will continue to look for support against this level.  A break should lead to further selling toward the 1.4376 level.

$EURUSD. Watching support 1.4411/18 Posted: 04 Jan 2010 05:43 AM PST Support for the EURUSD comes in at 1.4411/18.  Watch the level.  If the price can hold, the upside remains the bias for the pair.

$USDCAD falls on higher oil. Watch 1.0405/15 level Posted: 04 Jan 2010 05:33 AM PST The USDCAD fell sharply today on the back of stronger oil prices (up $1.70 on a futures basis) and gold (up $26).  The CAD$ tends to benefit on the back of stronger commodities.    The price action has seen the price move below the 1.0405/15 level which has been a floor for the pair over the last few months. Having said that, last week the  price dipped below this level on its way to a low 1.0365 but quickly rebounded.  The price low today reached 1.0370 and the failure to break 1.0365 has led to another short covering rally.  However, the high has reached 1.0405 level and stopped so far.  Look for sellers against the 1.0405/1.0415 level with stops on moves back above.  If the level is able to hold, look for selling to make another test of the 1.0365 level.

January 4th 2009 NY Morning Forex Report is available for viewing Posted: 04 Jan 2010 05:10 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.4.2010 Posted: 04 Jan 2010 04:53 AM PST Good Morning: HAPPY NEW YEAR! Higher yielding currencies took center stage in the New Year , as investors appetite for riskier assets rises. Oil rose for the 8Th day- trading above $80/barrel for the first time since November  2009.  Oil will be under pressure as colder temperatures hit the US. Stock rose worldwide, and commodities also traded higher as data from China showed manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in over 5 years.  Oil: $80.90                                                  Gold:$1117.50   TODAY’S RELEASES TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 10:00AM  ISM MANUFACTURING  DEC  54.3O  53.6O 10:00AM  ISM PRICES PAID DEC  57.5O  55.O 10:00AM  CONSTRUCTION SPENDING MoM DEC  -O.5% 0.00% HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

$USDJPY. Is the pair looking to transition into a trend from a non-trend market? Watch the clues. Posted: 04 Jan 2010 04:42 AM PST The USDJPY is non trending but as we all know when the market non-trends it often looks to trend.  At FXDD we look to define a non-trending market as one where the 100 and 200 bar MA converge.  Currently on the 5 minute chart the 100 and 200 bar MA are converged at 92.87, and the the price is starting to move away to the downside - reaching new lows for the day in the process.  If a trend like move is developing, then look for sellers on rallies with 92.76 being an intraday level to watch. Support targets at 92.28 area and below that 91.91.

For the USDCHF today, watch the 100 day moving average at 1.0311 Posted: 04 Jan 2010 04:20 AM PST The USDCHF dipped back below the 100 day MA on two occassions last week, but was not able to close below the key level.  The price has closed above the 100 day MA now for 12 straight days now.  Prior to the break higher, the price closed below the 100 day moving average since April 28th, 2009. Today the low for the USDCHF has reached 1.0321.  As long as the price can remain above the MA at 1.0311, look for profit taking buyers on dips. However, a break may not be as welcomed this time.  So watch the level closely today and if the price should break, look for confirming downside momentum to take the price below the lows from last week at the 1.0279 level. On the topside, look for resistance at the 1.0351 level where the 100 hour MA is  currently located with a move above next targeting the 1.0389 level where the 200 hour MA is currently found (green line in the chart below).

EURUSD remains supported in quiet trade. 1.4362/72 is support area to watch today. Posted: 04 Jan 2010 04:06 AM PST The NY day for the EURUSD has gotten off to a quiet start. The pair overnight reached a high price of 1.4416 just prior to NY entering, and has dipped modestly lower.  The bias remains bullish (price is above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute and 100 hour charts), however, the action is quiet as the stock market opening and 10 AM US economic numbers are awaited (ISM and US Construction spending due at 10 AM with ISM up to 54. 1e and Construction Spending expected to fall by -0.5% in November).   Support this morning comes in at the 1.4362-72 area.  On Friday, the market consolidated in this narrow range and today, the price dipped and held this level.  The 100 hour MA also comes in this level currently.  So watch this level to provide early support.  On the topside, A break of the high at 1.4411/18 resistance area, targets last Thursday’s high at the 1.4440 level.

New York hits GBPUSD in early trade as the market focuses back on the dollar buying - for now. Posted: 04 Jan 2010 03:39 AM PST After rallying overnight on the back of stronger PMI data out of the UK this morning, NY has come in selling the pair (buying the dollar).  The price dipped below the key 1.6158 level but held the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart in early NY trading (BLUE LINE in the chart above).  Watch the 100 bar MA this morning. As long as the price can remain above, the bias remains to the upside. There is no economic data out at 8:30 AM in NY and Canada. At 10:00 AM the December ISM Manufacturing index is due with the expectation of an increase to 54.1 from 53.6 last month.  This would be the 5th month with the index above the 50 level which signals expansion.  The market tends to look at the Employment and New Order components.  Last month employment fell to 50.8 from 53.1.  The New Order component meanwhile  rose to 60.3 from 58.5 the prior month.  The recent high reached 64.9 in August 2009. The component pieces last month for comparison came in at the following: Manufacturing index   53.6 Prices paid                       55.0 Production                      59.9 New orders                     60.3 Backlog of orders        52.0 Supplier deliveries      55.7 Inventories                     41.3 Customer inventories  37.0 Employment                    50.8 New export orders         56.0 Imports                                51.5

January 4th 2009 NY Opening Forex Report Posted: 04 Jan 2010 03:14 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

UK Economic Data Posted: 04 Jan 2010 12:29 AM PST UK PMI Manufacturing came in at 54.1, stronger than the 52.0 expected. Mortgage Approvals were registered at 60,500, stronger than the 58,000 expected and a 3200 increase over the prior figure of 57,300. These are strong numbers for sterling as Gbp/Usd is up about 30 points, trading at current session high of 1.6195.

1-4 Economic Calendar Posted: 03 Jan 2010 07:29 PM PST

HSBC Manufacturing PMI Posted: 03 Jan 2010 05:43 PM PST China’s HSBC Manufacturing PMI came in slightly better than expected, but did little to sway the market. The reading for December was 56.1, slightly better than 55.7 for November.

AIG Manufacturing Index Posted: 03 Jan 2010 01:55 PM PST The Aussie, which has been trading a little higher thus far this session, was unaffected by a lower release of the AIG Manufacturing Index; which came in at 48.5 versus its prior reading of 51.2. Currently, the AUD is approaching the .9000 handle.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• The FXDD Year End/Weekend Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• EURGBP tests 200 day MA support as selling pressure continues today
• USDJPY is testing target resistance at the 93.12 level
• Chicago PMI revised lower to 58.7 from 60.
• GBPUSD breaks through support at 1.6158 but finds support at the 200 bar MA level
• $EURUSD falls through the 100 and 200 hour moving averages

The FXDD Year End/Weekend Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 31 Dec 2009 09:28 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

EURGBP tests 200 day MA support as selling pressure continues today Posted: 31 Dec 2009 08:02 AM PST The EURGBP is down testing the 200 day MA 0.8855 level.  The pair has continued its assault to the downside today after yesterdays sharp move lower.  Of course action is winding down for the year so I do expect action to quiet down, but come Monday, the moving average will come back into focus as traders all return and look for the new opportunities in the New Year.

USDJPY is testing target resistance at the 93.12 level Posted: 31 Dec 2009 07:25 AM PST As per the earlier post (click here), the USDJPY has moved and is approaching the 50% retracement level of the move down from the April high of 101.43 and the November low of 84.80.  That level comes in at the 93.12 level.  Look for profit taking sellers at the level.  Support now comes in at 92.76

Chicago PMI revised lower to 58.7 from 60. Posted: 31 Dec 2009 07:10 AM PST Reuters headlines…Chicago PMI for Dec being revised PMI revised to 58.7 from 60. New Orders revised to 64.4 from 63.5 Employment index revised to 47.6 from 51.2 Yesterday this report came out so there must have been an error in the initial calculation.   It takes some of the steam out of the initial report. However, it still is up from expectations and last months value.

GBPUSD breaks through support at 1.6158 but finds support at the 200 bar MA level Posted: 31 Dec 2009 06:40 AM PST The GBPUSD fell through the support at the 1.6158 level and the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.6162 and selling intensified (see prior post).  The market sold off quickly but found support against the 200 bar moving average.  For those who listen and read our commentary, a break of the 100 bar MA chnages the bias from bullish to bearish and next targets the 200 bar MA.  If the 200 bar MA is broken, it confirms the directional move and should lead to lower levels. This move gives a bearish bias, but keeps the upside still in play. Look for sellers against the 100 bar MA at the 1.6164 level.  A  break above muddies the water.

$EURUSD falls through the 100 and 200 hour moving averages Posted: 31 Dec 2009 06:24 AM PST The EURUSD has moved through the 100 and 200 hour MA in the last hour of trading. There was a report circulating that the IMF is in discussion with Greece in regard to its debt situation. This is leading to the sharp selling in the pair as news and illiquid markets make for nervous markets for the Eurozone. There should now be resistance against the 200 hour MA at 1.4341. Look for sellers against this level. The next support level comes in at 1.4300/06 level.  A break next targets the low from yesterday at the 1.4273 level.

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