Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Forex Morning Report- Nov 10
• Stanford’s John Taylor Speaks with CNBC
• Canada Trade Balance Slips
• US Trade Balance & Jobless Claims Improve while Price Index Falls
• Rebroadcast of FXDD Tuesday Nov 9 2010 Webinar
• US Trade Balance, Import Price Index & Jobless Claims Data due at 8:30AM
• Canada Merchandise Trade Data due at 8:30AM
• Sterling stegnthens on BoE inflation report
• Merkel on the wires
• French Industrial Production
• German WPI
• French CPI
• Japanese Household Connfidence as expected
• 11-10 Economic Calendar
• USD/CHF Against ST Trendline Resistance

Forex Morning Report- Nov 10 Posted: 10 Nov 2010 06:45 AM PST Forex Morning Report- Nov 10

Stanford’s John Taylor Speaks with CNBC Posted: 10 Nov 2010 06:25 AM PST Doesn’t see QE2 doing much good for economy ‘Even more so’ concerned about QE2 On QE2 moves: ‘I don’t see them as helping’ QE2 will make it more difficult for other countries Says QE2 reflects ’short term thinking’ He is concerned about inflation getting out of hand Expects ‘change in sentiment’ on FOMC Possibility of adjustments in QE2 Says fed may not buy full $600 billion in treasuries

Canada Trade Balance Slips Posted: 10 Nov 2010 05:34 AM PST

US Trade Balance & Jobless Claims Improve while Price Index Falls Posted: 10 Nov 2010 05:33 AM PST Trade Balance:  Survey:  -45.0B    Actual:  -44.0B    Prior:  -46.3B   Revised:  -46.5B Import Price Index(MoM):   Survey:  1.2%    Actual: .9%    Prior: -0.3%   Revised: -0.1% Jobless Claims:  Survey: 450K    Actual:  435K   Prior: 457K    Revised:  459K    Continuing Claims:  Survey: 4305K    Actual:  4301K    Prior: 4340K   Revised:  4387K Import Price Index(YoY):    Survey: 3.9%    Actual: 3.6%    Prior: 3.5%      Jobless Claims Hits lowest level since July.

Rebroadcast of FXDD Tuesday Nov 9 2010 Webinar Posted: 10 Nov 2010 05:00 AM PST FXDD live webinar rebroadcast from November 9th 2010.

US Trade Balance, Import Price Index & Jobless Claims Data due at 8:30AM Posted: 10 Nov 2010 04:52 AM PST

Canada Merchandise Trade Data due at 8:30AM Posted: 10 Nov 2010 04:44 AM PST

Sterling stegnthens on BoE inflation report Posted: 10 Nov 2010 02:38 AM PST Roughly equal chance CPI is greater or less than target ; outlook greatly uncertain Gbp/Usd up to 1.6058

Merkel on the wires Posted: 10 Nov 2010 02:23 AM PST German Chancellor Merkel comments to reporters in Berlin; * Basel III a huge success, big step toward stemming future bank risk * “too big to fail” an issue for 2011 * signs of protectionism are growing * Germany rejects limits on trade surpluses * Germany won’t accept targets on trade surpluses

French Industrial Production Posted: 09 Nov 2010 11:46 PM PST French Industrial Production m/m came in at0.1%, weaker than the 0.2% expected. Eur/Usd has come of its recent highs, currently trading at 1.3767.

German WPI Posted: 09 Nov 2010 11:02 PM PST German WPI m/m came in at -0.3%, weaker than the 0.7% expected and prior reading of 1.0%. Eur/Usd currently trades at 1.3780.

French CPI Posted: 09 Nov 2010 10:55 PM PST French CPI m/m came in at 0.1%, weaker than the 0.2% expected. Eur/Usd continues to trade either side of 1.3770.

Japanese Household Connfidence as expected Posted: 09 Nov 2010 09:21 PM PST Japanese Household Confidence came in at 40.9, inline with expectations and slightly weaker than the 41.2 expected. Usd/Jpy currently trades at 81.75.

11-10 Economic Calendar Posted: 09 Nov 2010 07:50 PM PST

USD/CHF Against ST Trendline Resistance Posted: 09 Nov 2010 07:36 PM PST As the USD has regained its bid against the Euro starting last week, the effect has been more muted against the Swissy as it remains an alternate safe haven to the USD and its natural demand remains against the Euro. The appreciation in USD/CHF has been contained by the trendline resistance below on a technical basis over the last few sessions. A break above could lead the pair to test the 200hr moving average currently above the .9735 area.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• US Wholesale Inventories Rise 0.4%
• Forex Morning Report- Nov 9th
• US Wholesale Inventories due at 10AM
• Canada Home Price Index Better
• Canada New Home Price Index Data at 8:30AM
• UK Economic Data
• French Trade Balance
• Japan Economy Wathcers Survey
• 11-9 Economic Calendar
• Swan on the wires…
• Australian NAB business confidence slightly lower at 8
• Euro Moving Lower
• Aussie NAB Business Confidence coming up at 7:30 (eastern)
• UK BRC Retail Sales and RICS House Prices
• Japanese bank lending -1.9%, M2 money stock was 2.7%, and current account was better at 1.66T

US Wholesale Inventories Rise 0.4% Posted: 09 Nov 2010 07:09 AM PST Wholesale Inventories:     Survey: 0.7%     Actual: 1.5%      Prior: 0.8% September to August Ratios: Inventory/Sales : 1.18 from : 1.17 Durable goods: 1.50 from 1.49 Automotive: 1.47 from 1.45 Furniture: 1.41 from 1.38 Lumber: 1.59 from 1.60 Prof. equipment: .97 from .98 Computers: .68 from .70 Metals: 1.83 from 1.88 Electrical goods: 1.17 from 1.15 Hardware: 1.96 from 1.90 September sales were announced today cashing in at $353.9 billion up 0.4% from revised August level and up 11.9 from the September 2009 level.

Forex Morning Report- Nov 9th Posted: 09 Nov 2010 06:40 AM PST Forex Morning Report- Nov 9th

US Wholesale Inventories due at 10AM Posted: 09 Nov 2010 05:56 AM PST

Canada Home Price Index Better Posted: 09 Nov 2010 05:33 AM PST New House Price Index:    Survey: 0.1%     Actual: 0.2%      Prior: 0.1%          The total year over year house price index droped from 2.9% to 2.7%, While the monthly data increased from 0.1% to 0.2%. The three month annualized chart is showing a drop of 0.8 from 1.5%

Canada New Home Price Index Data at 8:30AM Posted: 09 Nov 2010 04:34 AM PST

UK Economic Data Posted: 09 Nov 2010 01:35 AM PST UK Manufacturing Production for Sept. came in at 0.1%, weaker than the 0.3% expected. Industrial Production for Sept. came in at 0.4%, weaker than the 0.5% expected. UK Trade Balance came in at -8.2B, weaker than the -7.9B expected. Gbp strengthened upon release of this poor economic data. Gbp/Usd up about 20 points to 1.6115.

French Trade Balance Posted: 08 Nov 2010 11:58 PM PST French Trade Balance came in at -4.7B, weaker than the -4.0B expected. The Euro has weakened on news with Eur/Usd at 1.3850 and Eur/Jpy at 111.95, off about 25 pips each.

Japan Economy Wathcers Survey Posted: 08 Nov 2010 11:31 PM PST Japan’s Economy Watchers Survey came in at 40.2, weaker than the 41.7 expected and prior reading of 41.2. The Jpy has been gaining stregnth throughout the session, currnetly trading at 80.87 vs. the dollar.

11-9 Economic Calendar Posted: 08 Nov 2010 07:50 PM PST

Swan on the wires… Posted: 08 Nov 2010 05:51 PM PST Australian Treasurer Swan made the following comments: Doesn’t want to speculate about the AUD, or further direction. AUD moves do impact government revenue. Australia has strong emphasis on border protection. Haven’t finished full RMBS program. RMBS investment is important part of governmentnt measures. Treasury forecasting method of AUD is the same as before.

Australian NAB business confidence slightly lower at 8 Posted: 08 Nov 2010 04:37 PM PST

Euro Moving Lower Posted: 08 Nov 2010 04:17 PM PST The Euro has continued its decline early in the Asian session, as fears continue on the ability of member countries to repay their debt and sustain the austerity measures being proposed. The EUR/USD pair made a new November low @1.3847 ahead of the 4-200 hr moving average and right below the 76.4% retracement of last week’s move we just broke below. It is interesting to note the 4-200hr moving average was broken to the upside in September below the 1.29 handle after resisting the pairs appreciation for 2 months and a break below that level with the negative Euro news again filtering through the market, could lead the pair significantly lower, not withstanding the Fed’s QE2 which is already ‘baked into the cake.’

Aussie NAB Business Confidence coming up at 7:30 (eastern) Posted: 08 Nov 2010 04:08 PM PST

UK BRC Retail Sales and RICS House Prices Posted: 08 Nov 2010 04:04 PM PST The pound retreated against the major currencies after BRC retail sales came in at 0.8% versus the prior reading of 0.5% and the RICS house price balance was worse at -49% versus a-39% forecast and -36% prior showing. The GBP is currently trading on session lows across the board.

Japanese bank lending -1.9%, M2 money stock was 2.7%, and current account was better at 1.66T Posted: 08 Nov 2010 03:51 PM PST September imports rose 10.5% and exports rose 15.9%. The market had a limited reaction to the release.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Webinar Tuesday Nov 9th 4pm with Shawn Powell
• EU’s Juncker Speaks in Brussels
• ECB President Trichet on the Wires:
• Canada Housing Starts
• Canada Housing Starts due at 8:15AM
• German Industrial Production
• Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence
• 11-8 Economic Calendar
• Euro Continues its Decline
• Goldman’s Hatzius comments…

Webinar Tuesday Nov 9th 4pm with Shawn Powell Posted: 08 Nov 2010 06:42 AM PST The Next FXDD Webinar will be this Tuesday, November 9th at 4pm New York time. Shawn Powell will present his “Ten Personal Rules of Trading.” You must register in advance to ensure your seat >> Here

EU’s Juncker Speaks in Brussels Posted: 08 Nov 2010 06:18 AM PST Ireland can avoid emergency funding if goals met ‘very difficult situation’ in Europe, globally ‘faily mediocre’ growth rate in euro area Europe to stick to exit strategy, shouldn’t jeopardize growth Praises ‘rigor’ of Irish budget measures Confident Ireland to be able to correct deficit by 2014 ’sure’ Portugal will undertake needed reforms Greece should be able to correct deficit by 2014 Excessive FX volatility should be avoided FX rates should reflect economic fundamentals Don’t want national egoism on FX rates Hopeful G-20 will be forum to discuss FX rates Important to broaden the debate on exchange rates Sees risk in U.S. Fed’s decisions, Questions the dollar level Says Greek Restructuring not an option to be considered.

ECB President Trichet on the Wires: Posted: 08 Nov 2010 05:36 AM PST Trichet Says: Global economic recovery is ‘uneven’ Uncertainty still prevails ‘there are risks’ All central banks aim to anchor price expectations Advanced economies see price stability at around 2% Growth potential could be higher in advanced economies Anchoring inflation expectations inspired Fed’s move Central bankers discussed capital inflows Term ‘currency war’ was not mentioned at all No central banker said they pursue weak currency Progressively more FX flexibility is desirable Didn’t discuss Zoellick’s gold standard proposal Need to avoid excessive FX volatility

Canada Housing Starts Posted: 08 Nov 2010 05:16 AM PST   Canada housing 3-month average decreased in October to 167,900  from 185,000 in September. Single family housing and multifamily housing numbers also lower. We are showing a revision of 185.0K hopefully a rise in November will come.

Canada Housing Starts due at 8:15AM Posted: 08 Nov 2010 05:07 AM PST

German Industrial Production Posted: 08 Nov 2010 03:11 AM PST German Industrial Production m/m came in at -0.8%, weaker than the 0.6% expected and prior reading of 1.5%. Eur/Usd made new session lows on the heels of this news at 1.3891. Currenttly the pair trades at 1.3905.

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Posted: 08 Nov 2010 01:35 AM PST Sentix Investor Confidence came in at 14.0, stronger than the 10.1 expectedand 8.8 prior reading. Eur/Usd has just risen about 10 points to 1.3922 on news.

11-8 Economic Calendar Posted: 07 Nov 2010 07:50 PM PST

Euro Continues its Decline Posted: 07 Nov 2010 07:24 PM PST The EUR/USD pair fell for a second straight day on continued concerns over Greece and Ireland. In Greece the political uncertainty surrounding the current elections and in Ireland concerns on whether they can gain support for there budget has dampened demand for the regions assets. On a hourly chart we see the pair broke below the 61.8% retracement of last weeks move higher and now we see the 21hr moving average about to break below the 100hr, continuing the pairs short-term bearish bias.

Goldman’s Hatzius comments… Posted: 07 Nov 2010 05:21 PM PST Sees Fed keeping “very expansionary” policies. Downside risk to economy has “declined significantly”. Fed’s easing is “off to a very good start”. “Hostility” to Fed’s actions is “misplaced”. Easing “lowers the risk of deflation”69315 Data considerably stronger than expected. U.S. inflation is unlikely to be a problem for years to come.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Key Events and Releases for November 10th week
• Greg Michalowski speaking in Dubai Nov 9th 2010
• Rebroadcast of FXStreet Webinar on Money Management
• Forex Midday Report- Nov 5
• US Home Sales Fall
• EURUSD falls to trendline support at London fix
• The good and bad news for the EURUSD as the London close approaches

Key Events and Releases for November 10th week Posted: 05 Nov 2010 12:52 PM PDT

Greg Michalowski speaking in Dubai Nov 9th 2010 Posted: 05 Nov 2010 11:21 AM PDT Greg Michalowski is speaking in Dubai Nov 9th 2010. If you are in the middle east, you will find it worthwhile to attend the event. More details at http://www.meotsummit.com

Rebroadcast of FXStreet Webinar on Money Management Posted: 05 Nov 2010 11:06 AM PDT For a Rebroadcast of the FXStreet webinar from earlier this week, click on the following link CLICK HERE FOR THE LINK

Forex Midday Report- Nov 5 Posted: 05 Nov 2010 09:44 AM PDT Forex Midday Report- Nov 5

US Home Sales Fall Posted: 05 Nov 2010 09:32 AM PDT Pending Home Sales (MoM):    Survey:  3.0%    Actual: 1.8%      Prior:  4.3%      Revised:  4.4% Pending Home Sales (YoY):      Actual: -24.9     Prior:  -18.4%

EURUSD falls to trendline support at London fix Posted: 05 Nov 2010 09:03 AM PDT

The good and bad news for the EURUSD as the London close approaches Posted: 05 Nov 2010 08:24 AM PDT

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• USDCAD tests parity. 0.9975 next key support
• President Obama on TV
• USDJPY tests support on bullish disappointment
• Forex Morning Report- Nov 5th
• Feds Hoenig on newswires
• US Pending Home Sales Data due at 10AM
• EURUSD moves lower on better jobs but corrects
• Canada Building Permits Way Up
• US Unemployment Better. USDJPY moves higher. Dollar higher
• US Employment awaited
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.5.2010
• US Employment the focus now. Dollar strengthens on weaker EURO
• Canada Employment comes out mixed
• Eurozone Retail Sales
• UK PPI stronger than expected

USDCAD tests parity. 0.9975 next key support Posted: 05 Nov 2010 06:52 AM PDT The USDCAD has tested the 100 hour MA today (after the Canada Employment) and is now down testing/below the 1.0000 level. The next target is key support against the bottom trendline at the 0.9975 level.  The 1.0011 level will be watched above. This was the low from yesterdays trade.  Other upside targets would be 1.0029.  The CAD has been supported by much strong Building Permits today (UP 15.3%).  The Employment report was mixed although it did show strong Full Time employment gains.

President Obama on TV Posted: 05 Nov 2010 06:42 AM PDT Says looks to head to Asia and open up export markets in countries like “India”. I found it interesting he did not say China. Opening overseas markets to American goods is important. Comments that jobs is good but not good enough. Need to search for ways to creat jobs. Says tax breaks for small businesses will boost jobs. Tax breaks for middle class jobs essential.

USDJPY tests support on bullish disappointment Posted: 05 Nov 2010 06:38 AM PDT

Forex Morning Report- Nov 5th Posted: 05 Nov 2010 06:36 AM PDT Forex Morning Report- Nov 5th

Feds Hoenig on newswires Posted: 05 Nov 2010 06:32 AM PDT Hoenig has consistently voted to raise rates at the Fed Meeting. He is on the wires saying the FOMC must begin taking steps to normalize policy.  He adds that housing needs greater market discipline and that raising rates is needed for a more stable economy.

US Pending Home Sales Data due at 10AM Posted: 05 Nov 2010 06:18 AM PDT

EURUSD moves lower on better jobs but corrects Posted: 05 Nov 2010 05:58 AM PDT Watcht the 1.4111 to 1.4125 above. A move below the 1.4072 and 1.4059 (100 hour MA) needed to put bears back in charge.

Canada Building Permits Way Up Posted: 05 Nov 2010 05:44 AM PDT

US Unemployment Better. USDJPY moves higher. Dollar higher Posted: 05 Nov 2010 05:30 AM PDT Unemployment 9.6% vs 9.6% last NFP 151K Revison better at 107k vs 64K Private Sectore +159K revision higher at 107 vs 64K Underemployed at 17% vs 17.1% Business services +46K Trade, Transportation +37K Avg hourly earnings +0.2% YoY is 1.7% USDJPY surged higher and is above resistance at 81.31. That is now support. The EURUSD moves below the 100 hour MA at the 1.4062 level.  Watch this to 1.4072 as resistance now for the EURUSD. Next downside target is the trendline and 61.8% retracement level at the 1.4023 area. A break of this level will next target the 200 hour MA at the 1.3968 level.  The better data and weaker focus on the EURO, should find sellers on rallies.  The 5 minute chart will be eyed for clues too.

US Employment awaited Posted: 05 Nov 2010 05:26 AM PDT NFP +60 K vs -95K Private sector: +80 K vs +64K. Focus will be on this. Unemployment 9.6% vs 9.6% The USDJPY should go higher on stronger and lower on weaker. Focus on the EURUSD has reversed to the downside with debt concerns. Watch for a move higher to run into resistance. I think a weak number is bad for the dollar. A strong number is good for the dollar but let the levels dictate the bias.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Nov.5.2010 Posted: 05 Nov 2010 05:22 AM PDT Good Morning: FX markets were range bound in Asia and early European trading-as the markets await this morning’s employment data. The Euro lost some traction in overnight trading against the USD and JPY as investors sold bonds from the “smaller” EU countries, as concerns over their sovereign debt issues continue to plague the region. Equity markets were mostly lower-as are US Futures at this time. Oil:$86.59                                                               Gold:$1380.20 TIME FOR EST. PRIOR 8:30A.M. CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS OCT. 60K -95K 8:30A.M. CHANGE IN PRIVATE PAYROLLS OCT. 80K 64K 8:30A.M. CHANGE IN MANUFACT. PAYROLLS OCT. 5K -6K 8:30A.M. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OCT. 9.60% 9.60% 8:30A.M. AVG. HOURLY EARNINGS MoM ALL EMP. OCT. 0.10% 0.00% 8:30A.M. AVG. HOURLY EARNINGS YoY ALL EMP OCT. 1.60% 1.70% 8:30A.M. AVG. WEEKLY HOURS ALL EMPLOYEES OCT.     34.2O 34.2O 10:00A.M. PENDING HOME SALES MoM SEPT. 3.00% 4.30% 10:00A.M. PENDING HOME SALES YoY SEPT. -18.40% HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

US Employment the focus now. Dollar strengthens on weaker EURO Posted: 05 Nov 2010 05:02 AM PDT We have been through 4 central bank meetings with RBA raising, US lowering and ECB and BOE staying unchanged. The US had their elections. Canada released their unemployment. It is now time for the US Employment. For a review, and the key levels to watch, click on the following link.

Canada Employment comes out mixed Posted: 05 Nov 2010 04:13 AM PDT Full time Employment up 47.2. Part time down -44.2. Net Change 3 K which was worse than the 15K expected but moving people from part time to full time is overall a better mix. The unemployment rate fell to 7.9% from 8.0%. The Participation Rate dipped to 67.2%. Private sector jobs rose 37.8K.  Although total jobs added was weaker than expectation, the mix is better.  The CAD$ has cotten weaker (higher USDCAD) off the report. The USDCAD shot up to the 100 hour MA at the 1.0084 level and found the sellers.  The price reached a low of 1.0083. The correction came down to test at the 50% retracment of the days range and old high.   Now it is wait time for the US Unemployment report.

Eurozone Retail Sales Posted: 05 Nov 2010 03:02 AM PDT Eurozone Retail Sales m/m came in at -0.2%, weaker than the 0.3% expected and a slight improvement over the -0.4% prior reading. Eur/Usd currently trades at 1.4168, relatively unchanged.

UK PPI stronger than expected Posted: 05 Nov 2010 02:34 AM PDT UK PPI Input  m/m came in at 2.1%, stronger than the 0.9% expected. PPI Output came in at 0.6%, stronger than the 0.2% expected. These high readings may indicate that inflation is on the rise. Gbp/Usd made marginal gains on heels of release, currently trading at 1.6220.

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