Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Both Factory Orders & ISM Non-Manf. Composite Data Stronger
• USDJPY corrects higher but holds an intraday resistance level
• EURUSD found its levels 1.3376 and 1.3327 is the boundaries now
• Forex Morning Report- Dec 3
• Dollar getting sold across the board
• US Nonfarm Payroll Falls Big, Unemployment Rate Rises from 9.6% to 9.8%
• Horrible numbers. NO relief in employment. USDJPY falls sharply
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.3.2010
• US Nonfarm Payroll, Unemployment Rate & Earnings Data due at 8:30AM
• US Unemployment Rate is the focus today. Be aware. Be prepared
• Canada Employment rate better than expected
• Greenspan on CNBC
• Eurozone Retail Sales
• UK Services PMI
• Eurozone Final Services PMI

Both Factory Orders & ISM Non-Manf. Composite Data Stronger Posted: 03 Dec 2010 07:21 AM PST

USDJPY corrects higher but holds an intraday resistance level Posted: 03 Dec 2010 07:15 AM PST

EURUSD found its levels 1.3376 and 1.3327 is the boundaries now Posted: 03 Dec 2010 06:35 AM PST

Forex Morning Report- Dec 3 Posted: 03 Dec 2010 06:25 AM PST Forex Morning Report- Dec 3

Dollar getting sold across the board Posted: 03 Dec 2010 05:45 AM PST EURUSD testing the 100 day MA at the 1.3327 level. A move above increases bullish bias. Support 1.3300 area now GBPUSD moving toward 100 day MA at the 1.5720 level. A move above increases bullish bias. Support 1.5667 now USDJPY falling below 82.87 (BOJ intervention level). Resistance at the level now

US Nonfarm Payroll Falls Big, Unemployment Rate Rises from 9.6% to 9.8% Posted: 03 Dec 2010 05:34 AM PST Change in Nonfarm Payrolls:         Survey:  150K          Actual:  39K      Prior:  151K      Revision: 172K Change in Private Payrolls:         Survey: 160K          Actual: 50K        Prior:  159K          Revised: 160K Change in Manufacturing Payrolls:         Survey: 5K     Actual:  -13K       Prior:  -7K          Revised: -11K Unemployment Rate:     Survey:  9.6%     Actual: 9.8%     Prior:  9.6%       Avg Hourly Earning (MoM) All Emp:    Survey:  0.2%     Actual: 0.0%          Prior:  0.2%          Avg Hourly Earning (YoY) All Emp:    Survey:  1.7%      Actual: 1.6%          Prior:  1.7%       Avg Weekly Hours All Employees:    Survey:  34.3      Actual: 34.3           Prior:  34.3

Horrible numbers. NO relief in employment. USDJPY falls sharply Posted: 03 Dec 2010 05:30 AM PST Headline unemployment rate 9.8% is very disappointing. The so called underemployment rate still at 17%. Change in Non Farm 39K vs 150 Expected. Private Payrolls 50 K vs 160K. Avg work week 34.3 unchanged on the month.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.3.2010 Posted: 03 Dec 2010 05:27 AM PST Good Morning: Stronger data from the EU sent the Euro higher-as EUR/USD broke through 1.3250 level.  Better than expected EZ Services PMI and EZ Retail Sales helped keep the Euro strong.  The Bundesbank rose their growth forecast for German growth in 2011.  The ECB has delayed their exit from stimulus measures-and will make credit easier at least through March 2011. Today the markets are focused on this morning’s US  jobs data.  The consensus is that the US added jobs-and the estimate is for an increase of 150k. The problem may be that this is not a big enough number to drop the overall unemployment rate which has been holding at 9.6%. Equity markets were mostly higher-and US Futures are higher at this time. Oil:$88.19                                                           Gold:$1388.60 TIME FOR EST. PRIOR 8:30A.M. CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS NOV. 145K 151K 8:30A.M. CHANGE IN PRIVATE PAYROLLS NOV. 155K 159K 8:30A.M. CHANGE IN MANUFACT.PAYROLLS NOV. 3K -7K 8:30A.M. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE NOV. 9.60% 9.60% 8:30A.M. AVG. HOURLY EARNING MoM ALL EMP. NOV. 0.20% 0.20% 8:30A.M. AVG.HOURLY EARNINGS YoY ALL EMP. NOV. 1.70% 1.70% 8:30A.M. AVG. WEEKLY HOURS ALL EMPLOYEES NOV. 34.3O 34.3O 10:00A.M. ISM NON -MANF. COMPOSITE NOV. 54.8O 54.3O 10:00A.M. FACTORY ORDERS OCT. -1.20% 2.10% HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

US Nonfarm Payroll, Unemployment Rate & Earnings Data due at 8:30AM Posted: 03 Dec 2010 05:02 AM PST

US Unemployment Rate is the focus today. Be aware. Be prepared Posted: 03 Dec 2010 04:56 AM PST   US Unemployment Rate is the focus today.  For the key technical levels to watch through the number and why, click on the following link. Be aware. Be prepared

Canada Employment rate better than expected Posted: 03 Dec 2010 04:30 AM PST The Canadian Unemployment rate fell to 7.6% from 7.9%.  The number of part time jobs increased by 26.7 thousand jobs. The Full time employment change fell by 11.5 thousand jobs.  The Net change was 15.2.  They were expecting 19.8K jobs.  So rate is job, job creation is disappointing.  The CAD$ got weaker off the news (USDCAD higher) but has since come back down as traders await the US unemployment statistics at 8:30 AM. The US employment report is expected to show 150K non farm jobs added and 160 Private sector jobs.  The Unemployment rate is expected to stay at 9.6%.  The hourly earnings are expected to decline by 0.2% with YoY at 1.7%.

Greenspan on CNBC Posted: 03 Dec 2010 04:19 AM PST Treasury is crowding out other borrowers in the US. This is a good point.  The US has an increasing deficit.  The treasury issues paper.  The Fed is buying bonds an putting money back into the banks. The banks buy the bonds. They don’t lend to other borrowers.  They are crowding out the business/consumer borrower.  Now there is a question with regard to the demand by consumers/businesses but we know that borrowing from banks is tight and at time simply difficult.

Eurozone Retail Sales Posted: 03 Dec 2010 02:03 AM PST EZ Retail Sales m/m came in at 0.5%, stronger than the 0.4% expected. Euro continues to show strength as Eur/Usd trades at a new session high of 1.3250.

UK Services PMI Posted: 03 Dec 2010 01:31 AM PST UK Services PMI came in at 53.0, weaker than the 53.2 expected. Gbp/Usd was bought up prior to release (1.5661 high). The pair has since come off to trade at 1.5645 post number thus far.

Eurozone Final Services PMI Posted: 03 Dec 2010 01:03 AM PST EZ Final Services PMI came in at 55.4, stronger than the 55.2 expected. This figure had no impact on Eur/Usd, as the pair is coming off its high and trading at 1.3220.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD above 1.3281 now….
• GBPUSD rebounds off support
• US Pending Home Sales Data Better
• EURUSD back above the 1.3122 key level and the pendulum swings
• EURUSD finds its range? 1.3122 above 1.3063 below
• Forex Morning Report- Dec 2
• EURUSD moves lower but be aware…
• EURUSD tests key support at 1.3122 again
• Trichet comments
• The Initial Claims are weaker but Thanksgiving week data
• Jobless & Continuing Claims Both a Bit Higher
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.2.2010
• Trichet awaited at 8:30 AM. Key levels to watch for clues
• Jobless Claims & Continuing Claims data due at 8:30AM
• ECB Interest Rate Decision Unchanged

EURUSD above 1.3281 now…. Posted: 02 Dec 2010 07:12 AM PST If the price cannot move below the 1.3176 level (give a buffer), look for a rotation back higher. 1.3216 is the high for the day then 1.3225.

GBPUSD rebounds off support Posted: 02 Dec 2010 07:05 AM PST

US Pending Home Sales Data Better Posted: 02 Dec 2010 07:04 AM PST Pending Home Sales (MoM):    Survey:  -1.0%    Actual: 10.4%      Prior:  -1.8%     Pending Home Sales (YoY):      Actual: -22.4     Prior:  -24.9%

EURUSD back above the 1.3122 key level and the pendulum swings Posted: 02 Dec 2010 06:48 AM PST The pendulum swung the other way and the price for the EURUSD has moved back above the 1.3122 level. This puts the 1.3150-53  level back in focus on the topside as the market volatility continues for the benchmark pair. The 1.3150 level represents some highs and lows (ceilings and floors) on the 5 minute chart.  See chart above.

EURUSD finds its range? 1.3122 above 1.3063 below Posted: 02 Dec 2010 06:32 AM PST

Forex Morning Report- Dec 2 Posted: 02 Dec 2010 06:24 AM PST Forex Morning Report- Dec 2 Webinar today at 4pm http://forex.fxdd.com/webinars

EURUSD moves lower but be aware… Posted: 02 Dec 2010 06:01 AM PST The market is interpreting the comments from Trichet as being bearish for the EURUSD.  The idea may be that the ECB needs to be more accomodative at this point.  Their reluctance to add liquidity is therefore a risk to the economy.  However, be aware for a rebound. The market can switch their bias on a dime and they could decide that the “take it slow” policy and “see what happens” is ok for now.  They may also like that they buy the weak countries paper but keep the strong sisters (i.e. Germany) in check (by sterlizing the bond purchases).  There is good support at the 1.3046 level (see chart below).  Watch this level to provide some buying interest.

EURUSD tests key support at 1.3122 again Posted: 02 Dec 2010 05:45 AM PST Equals 200 day MA and 100 hour MA.

Trichet comments Posted: 02 Dec 2010 05:33 AM PST Rates are appropriate Price development is moderate Medium term inflation moderate with inflation expectations firmly anchored Momentum remains positive Policy remains accomodatiove Liquidity provisions to be adjusted as appropriate Monitor developments closely Stimulus plan remains in tact.  ECB to delay withdrawl of emergency liquidity (the door is open but it is not closed either)  EURUSD dips to 200 day MA at 1.3122 Downside risk to growth due to financial market tension 2010 inflation 1.5-1.7% unchanged Inflaiton for 2011 1.3%-2.3% from 1.2% to 2.2% (nearly unchanged) 2010 GDP 1.6 to 1.8% Banks should strengthen capital basis Banks must expand credit when demand picks up Banks must stabilize their balance sheets. ECB will sterilize any bond purchases (meaning they will buy bonds from Ireland perhaps Spain and Portugal to ease issuing pressure but at the same time withdrawl liquidity elsewhere)

The Initial Claims are weaker but Thanksgiving week data Posted: 02 Dec 2010 05:31 AM PST Come in at 436K vs 424K expected.  Continuing Claims come in higher than expected at 4270 vs 4200K.  Often the seasonals are difficult.  It will be the average over the next few weeks which will be more important for the trend.

Jobless & Continuing Claims Both a Bit Higher Posted: 02 Dec 2010 05:31 AM PST Jobless Claims:  Survey: 424K    Actual:  436K   Prior: 407K    Revised:  410K    Continuing Claims:  Survey: 4200K    Actual:  4270K    Prior: 4182K   Revised:  4217K

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.2.2010 Posted: 02 Dec 2010 05:23 AM PST Good Morning: Risk appetite  returned to the FX world and EUR/USD moved up to  a high of 1.3216 in overnight trading.  The Euro moved higher after a better than expected Spanish debt auction.  The 3 year Spanish bonds came in at a yield of 3.71% versus the 4 % that was originally feared. As expected the ECB left interest rates unchanged-but the markets are looking for ECB President Trichet’s comments this morning. All eyes will be on Friday’s US employment data-set for 8:30 AM tomorrow. World equity markets rose after yesterday’s 250 point rise in the Dow.  US Futures are also higher this morning. Oil:$86.82                                                   Gold:$1389.20               7:45AM ECB POLICY MEETING 1.O% 1.O% 8:30AM ECB PRESS CONFERENCE ICSC CHAIN STORE SALES YOY NOV   ——– 1.60% 08:30AM INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS  NOV 27   424K   407K 08:30AM CONTINUING CLAIMS  NOV 20  4200K  4182K 10:00AM PENDING HOME SALES MoM OCT -0.90% -1.80% 10:00AM PENDING HOME SALES YoY  OCT   —– -24.90% HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Trichet awaited at 8:30 AM. Key levels to watch for clues Posted: 02 Dec 2010 05:13 AM PST Jean Claude Trichet speaks at 8:30.  The market will be awaiting any comments on bond purchases.   The market has the potential to trade in a volatile fashion.  Event risk is increased.  Know the key levels and use to determine market bias. Key levels to watch On the downside 1.3150 then 1.3122 then 1.3078. The topside levels to watch: 1.3181 then 1.3225 and 1.3281.

Jobless Claims & Continuing Claims data due at 8:30AM Posted: 02 Dec 2010 04:57 AM PST

ECB Interest Rate Decision Unchanged Posted: 02 Dec 2010 04:55 AM PST The ECB kept rates unchanged. The market awaits comments from Trichet at 8:30 AM

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Live education class Thursday December 2nd 4pm
• ISM comes in close to expectations. Does not surprise to the upside
• ISM Data Stays Put While Construction Spending Rises 1%
• “The Moment of Truth”: Deficit-Panel Chiefs Urge Tax, Spending Changes. .
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary. Reviews economic releases and the key technical levels
• EURJPY tests key 100 hour MA resistance at 110.47
• US ISM Manufacturing, Prices Paid & Construction Spending Data at 10AM
• EURUSD breaks above 200 day MA at the 1.3124 level
• Nonfarm Productivity Stays the Same & Unit Labor Costs Drop Slightly
• ADP Employment Change Rises
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.1.2010
• ADP comes in stronger at 93K vs 70K expected
• Spain aims to raise 14 B Euros from asset sales
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary looks at the major pairs
• ECB speculation of increased bond purchases supports the EURUSD

Live education class Thursday December 2nd 4pm Posted: 01 Dec 2010 07:25 AM PST The next FXDD live education class with Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell is this Thursday December 2nd at 4pm est/ 21:00gmt >> Click here to register

ISM comes in close to expectations. Does not surprise to the upside Posted: 01 Dec 2010 07:03 AM PST New Orders 56.6 vs 58.9 last month Employment 57.5 vs 57.7 last month Production 55.0 vs 62.7 last month Inventories 56.7 vs 53.9 last month Order backlog 46.0 vs 46.0 last month Prices Paid 69.5 vs 71.0 last month. Overall a bit of a disappointment in that it did not surprise to the upside.  The Chicago PMI was better and global increases in PMI over the last 24 hours created an anticipation of good news.  The USDJPY has dipped  a bit but not materially. Support at 84.20.  The EURUSD has gotten a more substantial boost back to the 200 day MA level at the 1.3124 level. Overall, today is characterized by fundamental crosswinds.  The market interpreted news and hopes of Bond purchases by the ECB as positive. US data was better - especially ADP, but now ISM is a bit of a disappoint.  All points to the choppy market conditions today.

ISM Data Stays Put While Construction Spending Rises 1% Posted: 01 Dec 2010 07:01 AM PST ISM Manufacturing:    Survey:  56.5       Actual: 56.6          Prior: 56.9 ISM Prices Paid:    Survey: 71.0         Actual:  69.5          Prior: 71.0 Construction Spending (MoM):     Survey: -0.3%         Actual: .7%       Prior:  0.5%      Revised: %

“The Moment of Truth”: Deficit-Panel Chiefs Urge Tax, Spending Changes. . Posted: 01 Dec 2010 06:47 AM PST A commission created by President Obama is scheduled to announce their recommendations for deficit reduction going forward. The report is likely to be met with harsh criticism but is intended to be a framework and also to be a wake up call to the seriousness of the US budgetary issues that face the nation now and into the future when entitlement programs will balloon without a tax base to support it.  The proposal includes: 200,000 Federal job cuts by 2020 (10% of the workforce) 4 trillion in deficit reduction by 2020 Reduce the Deficit to 2.3% of GDP by 2015 Overhaul tax code Cap govt revenue at 21% of GDP Reduce total debt to 40% of GDP by 2035 The changes are expected to become a blue print for debate Some specific which are targeted: Capping the deduction for mortgage interest to loans less than $500,000 and no deduction for 2nd homes.  Capital Gains and dividends taxed at normal income rates Limit the ability to deduct health insurance payments pre-tax To offset these tax incentives which would hurt consumers and housing there are proposals for tax relief.  Specific details were not released. Regarding entitlement programs, the proposals include: Raising the normal retirement age to 68 by 2050 and 69 by 2075 Hardship for people who can’t work beyond the age of 62 and other exemptions for low income wage earners Medicaid and Medicare cuts “across the board” The implications for the currency markets?  Overall, this exercise is a wake up call for change.  It does not enact any change and there will be long debates.  As a result, it’s impact will be minimal.  The market was focused on the good in the EUROZONE but has shifted back to the dollar strength with the better employment from ADP providing the good.  The ISM Manufacturing comes out at 10 AM. The market is likely expecting something better than expected. The Chicago PMI surprise to the upside yesterday so the good is likely expected to be reflected in the national report today.  CLICK HERE FOR A REPORT FROM THE Wall Street Journal.

The NY Morning Forex Commentary. Reviews economic releases and the key technical levels Posted: 01 Dec 2010 06:10 AM PST

EURJPY tests key 100 hour MA resistance at 110.47 Posted: 01 Dec 2010 05:48 AM PST

US ISM Manufacturing, Prices Paid & Construction Spending Data at 10AM Posted: 01 Dec 2010 05:45 AM PST

EURUSD breaks above 200 day MA at the 1.3124 level Posted: 01 Dec 2010 05:41 AM PST

Nonfarm Productivity Stays the Same & Unit Labor Costs Drop Slightly Posted: 01 Dec 2010 05:32 AM PST Nonfarm Productivity:    Survey: 2.3%         Actual:  2.3%        Prior:  1.9%        Unit Labor Costs:    Survey:  -0.2%         Actual:  -0.1%         Prior:  -0.1%

ADP Employment Change Rises Posted: 01 Dec 2010 05:21 AM PST

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.1.2010 Posted: 01 Dec 2010 05:17 AM PST Good Morning: Improved global economic data along with improved credit spreads in Europe , pushed risk appetite higher in Asia and in earlyEuropean trading.  China manufacturing rose to a six month high, German Retail Sales rose to a 2 year high, but the best data of all came out of the UK where the PMI Manufacturing data printed at 58.0  versus 54.8 which was expected.  This data from the UK shows that the UK industrial sector is showing strong growth-as this is the third month in a row that posted an increase.  Portugal had a bill auction in which the government sold 500 million euros of 12 month bills.  The auction was recieved better than expected-which attracted bids 2.5 times the amount offered.  Rumors are building that S&P may look to cut the country’s credit rating on concerns that they too may need to seek a “bailout”. World equity markets along with US Futures are higher this morning. Oil:$85.50                                                               Gold:$1393.10   TIME FOR EST. PRIOR 7:00A.M. MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS 26-Nov 2.10% 7:30A.M. CHALLENGER JOB CUTS YoY NOV. -31.80% 8:15A.M. ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE  NOV. 72K 43K 8:30A.M. NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY  3Q F 2.30% 1.90% 8:30A.M. UNIT LABOR COSTS 3Q F -0.20% -0.10% 10:00A.M. ISM MANUFACTURING NOV. 56.5O     56.9O 10:00A.M. ISM PRICES PAIS PAID NOV.       71.O     71.O 10:00A.M. CONSTRUCTION SPENDING MoM OCT. -0.30% 0.50% 2:00P.M. FEDS BEIGE BOOK         HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

ADP comes in stronger at 93K vs 70K expected Posted: 01 Dec 2010 05:16 AM PST The revision was to 82K from 43K last month. +14K Goods Producing +79K Servicing Producing +16K Manfacturing The talk is employment is moving in the right direction with the changes being more broad based. This is the largest in 3 years and the 10th straight increase for the series

Spain aims to raise 14 B Euros from asset sales Posted: 01 Dec 2010 05:16 AM PST In an attempt to alleviate some of the budgetary problems down the road (and borrowing constraints perhaps), Spain has announced they are looking to make some asset sales that would raise 14B Euros

The NY Opening Forex Commentary looks at the major pairs Posted: 01 Dec 2010 05:10 AM PST

ECB speculation of increased bond purchases supports the EURUSD Posted: 01 Dec 2010 05:09 AM PST The EURUSD is being supported today by rumblings in the market that the ECB will announce an increase in the bond purchases at tomorrows scheduled ECB meeting (7:45 AM ET). The market is interpreting this action as the band aid for the bond markets which have been hurt lately as a result of decreased confidence in countries like Ireland, Portugal and Spain. This is in contrast to normal market reaction whereby increase QE type actions are currency bearish (at least until that time the announcement is made). Be aware that if done, the reaction higher for the EURUSD may be positive initially but may then lose its bullish luster. Of course we will be watching the technical clues from the tools we use to determine the bullish or bearish bias. This will define the risk and make sure that if the market does not do what is expected, we don’t get hurt. Be aware. Be prepared

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