Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Canada Ivey PMI weaker than expectations
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary is availble for viewing
• GBPUSD breaking above the 100 hour MA
• USDCAD testing 100 hour MA again
• USDJPY stalled around 100 day MA. Intraday bias a bit bearish
• GBPUSD still not sure of direction
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.6.2011
• USDCHF in a narrow trading range.
• Macy and Gap December sales not as good
• Initial Claims rise 18K to 409,000 from a revised 391K
• Key level in the EURUSD approached at 1.3079
• Ivey Purchasing Managers Index due at 10:00
• US Initial Claims due out at 8:30 AM
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary for Jan 6th is available for viewing
• German Factory Orders

Canada Ivey PMI weaker than expectations Posted: 06 Jan 2011 07:02 AM PST Comes in at 50 vs expectations of 54.  The employment index fll to 47.3 from 54.8. The Inventory component rose to 54.1 from 41.7. The Prices rose to 62.3 from 60.0.  Supplier Delivery fell to 40.4 from 44.0. The USDCAD has moved higher on the news and has broken above the 100 hour MA at the 0.9952 level  A break above the 0.9976 and the 200 hour MA at the 0.9986 level is the next targets.

The NY Morning Forex Commentary is availble for viewing Posted: 06 Jan 2011 06:45 AM PST

GBPUSD breaking above the 100 hour MA Posted: 06 Jan 2011 06:23 AM PST

USDCAD testing 100 hour MA again Posted: 06 Jan 2011 06:13 AM PST The market has not been able to solicit much buying above the 100 hour MA since breaking below  in NY midday yesterday.  The downside has been contained, but the ceiling is evident, keeping the bias to the downside.  At 10:00 IVEY PMI is due with expectations at 54.0 vs 57.5

USDJPY stalled around 100 day MA. Intraday bias a bit bearish Posted: 06 Jan 2011 06:09 AM PST Intraday bias is down (price below 100 day MA and 100 and 200 bar on the 5 minute chart below).  If the price breaks the 82.87 level (BOJ intervention level in September 2010 and low for the day)  next stop 82.72 and then 82.52.

GBPUSD still not sure of direction Posted: 06 Jan 2011 05:51 AM PST On the 5 minute chart above there is something about that old trendline. Overall, the GBPUSD remains contained a move above or below the 100 or 200 hour MA in the chart below should solicit additional moves in the direction of the break.  Support held earlier today on the trendline.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.6.2011 Posted: 06 Jan 2011 05:49 AM PST Good Morning: The USD continued to trade stronger in the overnight sessions.  Concerns that the slow recovery in some EU countries will keep the debt crisis on the front burner for some time to come.  China stated that it will buy 6 billion euro of Spanish debt.  Investors will be looking to see if China’s purchases can calm speculators-or will Spain be the next recipient of an EU bailout?  World equity markets traded higher-and US Futures are also pointing to a higher opening this morning. Oil:$90.11                                                               Gold:$1372.80 TIME FOR EST. PRIOR 8:30A.M. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS 1-Jan 405K 388K 8:30A.M. CONTINUING CLAIMS 25-Dec 4080K 4128K HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

USDCHF in a narrow trading range. Posted: 06 Jan 2011 05:45 AM PST Bias remains bullish.  Watching for a break to confirm. If price moves below the 0.9654 look for profit taking in the pair (selling).

Macy and Gap December sales not as good Posted: 06 Jan 2011 05:39 AM PST The expectations were raised, but the gains did not reach those expectations.  Other retailers out later.

Initial Claims rise 18K to 409,000 from a revised 391K Posted: 06 Jan 2011 05:31 AM PST Last week was initial reported at 382K. The 4 week average fell to 410K from 414K last week.  Continuing Claims came in higher than expectations at 4103K vs 4080K. Last week was revised higher to 4150k from 4128k. The string of better data is broken.

Key level in the EURUSD approached at 1.3079 Posted: 06 Jan 2011 05:16 AM PST The 200 day MA and the 50% retracement level of the move up from the June 2010 low to the November high is being tested in early NY trade.  This is the key level for the day. A move below the level keeps the bearish bias firmly in place for the EURUSD.

Ivey Purchasing Managers Index due at 10:00 Posted: 06 Jan 2011 05:12 AM PST

US Initial Claims due out at 8:30 AM Posted: 06 Jan 2011 05:09 AM PST

The NY Opening Forex Commentary for Jan 6th is available for viewing Posted: 06 Jan 2011 04:52 AM PST The Opening Forex Commentary looks at the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, EURJPY, and USDCAD in the report and outlines the key technical levels

German Factory Orders Posted: 06 Jan 2011 03:21 AM PST German Factory Orders m/m came in at 5.2%, stronger than the 1.0% expected. This news seems to have stopped Eur/Usd’s decline, at least for the moment. The pair currently trades at 1.3105,  up 15 points for low of 1.3090.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• ISM Non Manufacturing component pieces
• ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Data Better
• Forex Morning Report Jan 5
• US ISM Data Due at 10AM
• USDJPY moves toward key 100 day MA
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.5.2011
• GBPUSD approached 100 hour MA at 1.5514
• Canada Raw Materials & Industrial Product Price Both Improve
• EURUSD testing 1.3180 support
• USDJPY breaks through 82.87
• EURUSD falls sharply on much better ADP
• US ADP Employment Change Shows Drastic Improvement
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Challeger job cuts continues to improve
• Canada Industrial Product Price & Raw Materials Price Index Due at 8:30AM

ISM Non Manufacturing component pieces Posted: 05 Jan 2011 07:07 AM PST Composite Index       57.1 vs  55.0 last month Business Activity     63.5 vs  57.0 last month Prices Paid           70.0  vs 63.2 last month  New Orders            63.0  vs 57.7 last month Backlog of Orders *   48.5 vs  51.5 last month Supplier Deliveries*  51.5 vs 52.5 last month Inventory Change *    52.5 vs 51.5 last month Inventory Sentiment*  61.5  vs 60.0 last month Employment            50.5 vs  52.7 last month Employment down is a bit of a surprise, but new orders are strong

ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Data Better Posted: 05 Jan 2011 07:02 AM PST

Forex Morning Report Jan 5 Posted: 05 Jan 2011 06:45 AM PST Forex Morning Report Jan 5

US ISM Data Due at 10AM Posted: 05 Jan 2011 06:28 AM PST

USDJPY moves toward key 100 day MA Posted: 05 Jan 2011 05:51 AM PST The 83.13 level is shaping up as a key level for the USDJPY on its move to the upside today. It is the key 100 day MA and the 61.8% of the move down from the December high to the low.  The high reached 83.06 but have seen some profit taking selling.  ON the downside if the 82.87 area can contain the correction (the BOJ intervention level), the market should be encouraged and look to make a test of the key level (and perhaps a break). Longer term for the USDJPY, the high for December at 84.51 (realy 84.40-51) is a target for the pair as is the even longer term 85.87 level. This is the 38.2% of the move down from the April 2010 high to the low.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.5.2011 Posted: 05 Jan 2011 05:44 AM PST Good Morning: This morning’s ADP Payroll data showed an increase of 297k  jobs in December 2010.  The estimate was for an increase of 100k.  This was great news for the US economy and the greenback.  The USD continued to rally on this data.  The USD was strong against the Euro in the overnight session, as the single currency came under pressure as the sovereign debt problems within the region continue to make headlines.  In another note from Europe the SNB reported that they will no longer accept Irish government bonds as collateral for repurchase agreement deals in the future. Also- Portugal sold 500 mil of 6 month bills in line with yields that were anticipated by analysts. Asian equity markets were mixed, and European markets are lower.  US Futres are lower at this time. Oil:$88.76                                                                     Gold:$1374.40 7:00A.M. MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS 7:30A.M. CHALLENGER JOB CUTS YoY 8:15A.M. ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE      DEC.      100K 93K 10:00A.M. ISM NON MANUF. COMOPOSITE             DEC. 55.7O 55.O HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

GBPUSD approached 100 hour MA at 1.5514 Posted: 05 Jan 2011 05:43 AM PST The 100 hour MA comes in at the 1.5514 level. The GBPUSD is approaching this target level. The 50% of the move up from the December 27th low to the high comes in at the 1.5501 level. These are key targets that if broken signal even more bearish potential for the shorts On the topside watch to see if the 1.5326-34 level contain corrections.

Canada Raw Materials & Industrial Product Price Both Improve Posted: 05 Jan 2011 05:40 AM PST Raw Materials Price Index:   Survey:  2.0%   Actual:  3.5%   Prior:  1.7%   Revised:  2.3%               Importance & Nov Data                        Raw Materials:   100% , 148.4 Ex-Mineral Fuels:  58.6%,  129.3 Mineral Fuels:  41.4%,  175.7 Vegetable Products:  9.9%,  112.2 Animals:  19.8%,  101.4 Wood:  11.8%,  89.9 Ferrous Materials:  2.9%,  135.6 Non-Ferrous Metals:  11.3%,  228.4 Non-Metallic Minerals: 2.8%,  144.8 Industrial Product Price(MoM):    Survey:  0.3%    Actual:  0.5%    Prior:  0.5%

EURUSD testing 1.3180 support Posted: 05 Jan 2011 05:34 AM PST This level is an old “remembered area” on the hourly chart dating back to November 2010 (put a line on your hourly at 1.3180-85 and go back in time on the hourly chart to see the number of times the market found support or resistance at the level). The price dipped below for a brief moment on the initial move lower. Another break below should solicit more selling with the target off the daily chart pointin to 1.3079 where the 200 day MA and 50% retracement is found.

USDJPY breaks through 82.87 Posted: 05 Jan 2011 05:30 AM PST Level was the key technical level where the BOJ intervened at on September 15th 2010. Now becomes support for the USDJPY. The next target to get through is 83.14 - the 61.8% of the move down from the Dec 15th high

EURUSD falls sharply on much better ADP Posted: 05 Jan 2011 05:26 AM PST

US ADP Employment Change Shows Drastic Improvement Posted: 05 Jan 2011 05:21 AM PST Dec vs. Nov ADP Employment:   107,512  vs  107,215 Level Change:  297  vs  92 Small Firms(1-49): 48,499  vs  48,382 Level Change:  117  vs  49 Medium Firms(50-499):  41,469  vs  41,325 Level Change:  144  vs  44 Large Firms:(>499):  17,544  vs  17,508 Level Change:  36  vs v -1

The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 05 Jan 2011 05:01 AM PST In the Opening Report I take a look at the EURUSD (still pressured), GBPUSD (mixed - non trending), USDJPY (back above MA resistance and looking to take out 82.28, USDCHF (Breaking above trendline), EURJPY (Finding support at 61.8%) and USDCAD (bounced off 100 hour MA and supported from below). See the key levels and the defined risk and why.

Challeger job cuts continues to improve Posted: 05 Jan 2011 04:33 AM PST The YoY change in December came in at -29% from a year ago with a total of 32,004 announced cuts for the month. This is down from 48,711 last month.  This is the lowest Job cut announcement since June 2000.

Canada Industrial Product Price & Raw Materials Price Index Due at 8:30AM Posted: 05 Jan 2011 04:31 AM PST

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• GBPUSD bull flags last chance
• Factory orders better than expected…
• US Factory Orders Shows Positive Data
• Gold approaches trendline support
• EURUSD looks toward the 100 day MA again
• GBPUSD forming bull flag intraday
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary
• Gold breaks lower
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.4.2011
• NY Opening Forex Commentary for Jan 4th
• US Factory Orders Due at 10AM
• Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate
• UK Net lending to individuals and Final mortgage approvals
• UK Manufacturing PMI
• German Unemployment Change

GBPUSD bull flags last chance Posted: 04 Jan 2011 07:10 AM PST

Factory orders better than expected… Posted: 04 Jan 2011 07:02 AM PST Durable Goods was revised to -0.3 from -1.3. Ex Transporations was revised to +3.6% from 2.4%. The number is another in what is a string of better economic data for the US.  The Durable goods was released at the end of December.  Most people don’t know but Durable Goods is a part of Factory Orders and is often revised when the Factory orders data is released.  Looking at the components of the Factory Orders, defense orders rebounded and accounted for some of the surprise.  Ex defense factory orders were up 0.3% vs 0.1%. Below are other details of the breakdown. New Orders  0.7%  vs -0.7% last month  Ex-transportation 2.4%  vs 0.1% last month  Ex-defense 0.3%   vs 0.1% last month  Ex-computers 0.6%  vs -0.6% last month Capital goods  -4.4% vs -6.6% last month  Non-defense-6.8% vs -3.8% last month   Excluding aircraft 2.6% vs -3.2% last month    3-mo. annualized  8.5%  vs 11.3% last month  Defense 17.5% vs -26.8% last month

US Factory Orders Shows Positive Data Posted: 04 Jan 2011 07:01 AM PST

Gold approaches trendline support Posted: 04 Jan 2011 06:53 AM PST Look for some profit taking buyers against trendline support in the hourly chart at the $1383 level.  However, should there be a break, the next key trendline support comes in at $1359 (see daily chart below).

EURUSD looks toward the 100 day MA again Posted: 04 Jan 2011 06:44 AM PST The 100 day MA is at 1.3379. It is a key level once again for the EURUSD today

GBPUSD forming bull flag intraday Posted: 04 Jan 2011 06:33 AM PST

The NY Morning Forex Commentary Posted: 04 Jan 2011 06:20 AM PST   Gold has retreated. The dollar has moved higher with the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF leading the way. GBPUSD remains in a bull flag formation. Will the formation hold.  For the key technical levels to eye, click on the following video link As a reminder we have a webinar today at 4PM. TOPIC: The Forex Traders New Years Resolutions”. To register go to: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/254273472

Gold breaks lower Posted: 04 Jan 2011 05:54 AM PST As per the Opening Forex Commentary, the 38.2% retracement line was a key borderline today for the gold. The price broke through that level and the selling ensued. The price broke through the 200 hour MA at the $1400 level and that level is now the resistance intraday.  The next targets for the pair come in at $1386 area where a trendline is found. There is another target trendline below at the $1359 level.  A break of this line should lead to further selling pressure for the pair.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.4.2011 Posted: 04 Jan 2011 05:12 AM PST Good Morning: The first full trading day of 2011 got underway with risk on the plate as the main course.  With all of the major centers back after the New Years holiday-the equity markets were poised for a rally after yesterday’s 90+ point increase in the Dow to start off 2011. In the FX world the EUR/USD pair jumped over the 1.34 handle, and cable roared over 150 points after UK data showed that the PMI Manufacturing Index rose to a 16 year high. The USD picked up against the JPY, as a report today may show that factory orders dropped less than originally expected, along with better than expected auto sales data.  These are hopefully signs that the US economy is seeing signs of recovery. World equity markets traded higher-as are US Futures.  Gold fell, refined sugar dropped over 3% as rains in India may damage crops in India (the 2nd biggest producer of sugar worldwide). Oil:$91.90                                                           Gold:$1408.70  HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

NY Opening Forex Commentary for Jan 4th Posted: 04 Jan 2011 05:00 AM PST

US Factory Orders Due at 10AM Posted: 04 Jan 2011 04:46 AM PST

Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate Posted: 04 Jan 2011 02:01 AM PST Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate y/y came in at 2.2%, stronger than the 2.0% expected. Eur/Usd had made new highs just prior to release, trading up to 1.3408. The pair is presently at 1.3400.

UK Net lending to individuals and Final mortgage approvals Posted: 04 Jan 2011 01:36 AM PST UK Net lending to individuals m/m came in at 0.7B, weaker than the 0.9B expected. Final mortgage approvals came in at 48,000, stronger than the 47,000 expected. Mixed news with the net lending number a greater detriment to sterling, but not enough to erode gains made by the just released PMI figure. Gbp/Usd is at its high of 1.5599.

UK Manufacturing PMI Posted: 04 Jan 2011 01:32 AM PST UK Manufacturing PMI came in at 58.3, stronger than the 57.3 expected. Gbp/Usd rose to a new session high of 1.5599 on news. The pair trades 5 pips off that as we speak.

German Unemployment Change Posted: 04 Jan 2011 01:00 AM PST German Unemployment (seasonally adjusted) rose by 3,000 in December, a decline of 15,000 was expected. The Unemployment rate remained at 7.5%. The jobless claim increase is partly due to winter weather, according to the German labor department. Maybe this is why Eur/Usd did not take a hit by the news. The pair currently trades at 1.3353.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD tests support at 1.3310 area
• US ISM Data Stays Put as Construction Spending Improves
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available
• Gold finds sellers below trendline MA support
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.3.2011
• NY Opening Forex Commentary for January 3rd 2011
• US ISM & Construction Spending Due at 10AM
• Eurozone Final PMI
• 1-3 Economic Calendar

EURUSD tests support at 1.3310 area Posted: 03 Jan 2011 07:03 AM PST The 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart provided resistance on the way up today. It is providing support now.  A break will target 1.3276. On the topside watch 1.3365 to find sellers.

US ISM Data Stays Put as Construction Spending Improves Posted: 03 Jan 2011 07:03 AM PST ISM Manufacturing:    Survey:  57.0       Actual:  57.0        Prior: 56.6 ISM Prices Paid:    Survey: 71.8         Actual:  72.5        Prior: 69.5 Construction Spending (MoM):     Survey: 0.2%         Actual: 0.4 %       Prior:  0.7%      Nov vs. Oct Totals: -5.8%  vs -9.1% Residential: -3.9%  vs -5.3% Non-Residential: -6.6%  vs -10.7%

The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available Posted: 03 Jan 2011 06:41 AM PST The NY session is off to a up and down (or down and up) start as the market gets its feet under itself. For a techincal look at the major currency pair, click on the video link To subscribe to my email distribution list, send me an email at greg@fxdd.com. Thanks.

Gold finds sellers below trendline MA support Posted: 03 Jan 2011 05:34 AM PST

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.3.2011 Posted: 03 Jan 2011 05:28 AM PST Good Morning: Welcome to the first trading day of 2011.  I want to wish everyone a Happy & Healthy New Year. With a slow start to the new trading year-as Japan, and many European centers still on a bank holiday until tomorrow -the markets will resume where we left off at the end of 2010. The sovereign debt issues plaguing the EU will be one of the central points in 2011.  China has made very positive comments regarding Spain-and will buy additional Spanish debt this year.  We will have to watch this development closely-as the yields on debt ladened Euro region bonds may offer better returns than US Treasuries.  By supporting the Euro Zone this way, the Chinese will try to  insure that the USD will not be the sole reserve currency of the world.  With the New Year-comes the appetite for new risk. Oil is trading over $92/barrel , Gold at 1420+/oz. and S&P futures up 90 points at this time. Most markets were closed-but those that were open saw higher equity prices. Oil:$92.19                                       Gold:$1423.10 TIME FOR EST. PRIOR 10:00AM ISM MANUFACTURING DEC. 57.O 56.6O 10:00AM ISM PRICES PAID DEC. 71.8O 69.5O 10:00AM CONSTRUCTION SPENDING MoM        NOV. 0.20% 0.70% HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK Oil:$92.19                                 Gold:$

NY Opening Forex Commentary for January 3rd 2011 Posted: 03 Jan 2011 05:02 AM PST

US ISM & Construction Spending Due at 10AM Posted: 03 Jan 2011 04:50 AM PST

Eurozone Final PMI Posted: 03 Jan 2011 01:21 AM PST EZ Final PMI came in at 57.1, stronger than the 56.9 expected. Eur/Usd made a push higher on heels of release trading up about 20 points to 1.3315. The pair currently resides at 1.3302.

1-3 Economic Calendar Posted: 02 Jan 2011 08:43 PM PST

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Happy New Year to All
• USDCAD tests April 2010 and year low at 0.9929
• USDCHF rebounds hard off of 0.9300 and 0.9320
• USDJPY falls sharply. 80.70 is target area below.
• EURUSD heads toward 1.3423 target
• GBPUSD tests 50% midpoint of December Range

Happy New Year to All Posted: 31 Dec 2010 09:59 AM PST On behalf of Shawn Powell, Jared Boyd and Jason Galano let me wish you all a joyous, healthy New Year.  May you also enjoy good fortune in your trading in 2011.  Peace on earth. Goodwill toward men, Greg Michalowski

USDCAD tests April 2010 and year low at 0.9929 Posted: 31 Dec 2010 08:21 AM PST

USDCHF rebounds hard off of 0.9300 and 0.9320 Posted: 31 Dec 2010 08:14 AM PST The USDCHF fell through the bottom trendline support at 0.9320 and fell to a low of 0.9300.  The move back above the 0.9320 and the holding of the 0.9300 level now gives dip buyers a level to lean against.  Look for profit taking buyers on dips toward the 0.9320 level. The upside target becomes the 94.05 level where trendline resistance comes in.  Volatility to prevail for the next hour.

USDJPY falls sharply. 80.70 is target area below. Posted: 31 Dec 2010 08:08 AM PST The resistance above is at 81.25-28 (see chart below).  The next key support comes in at 80.70 (see chart above).  Anything can happen as end of year volatility rules the day.

EURUSD heads toward 1.3423 target Posted: 31 Dec 2010 07:54 AM PST The 1.3423 levle is the next target (see chart). Could see resistance against the level. A move above targets 1.3446 which was the low on November 26th.

GBPUSD tests 50% midpoint of December Range Posted: 31 Dec 2010 07:48 AM PST The midpoint of the December high to low range comes in at 1.5626. Can the market find profit takers or is the end of year squaring going to control the market?>

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