Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD heads to new lows. 100 day MA a focus
• Surprise! US Employment Report confuses traders
• Nonfarm Payrolls Fall Hard, Unemployment Rate Lower
• US Unemployment comes in mixed
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.4.2011
• US Nonfarm Payroll & Unemployment Rate Data Due at 8:30AM
• The Technical Levels to eye through the US Employment
• ECB Notwotny retracts inflation remark
• Canadian Employment Rate Worse
• Canadian Unemployment in 5 minutes…
• ECB’s Paramo speaks to reporters in Spain
• Market Stagnant in Anticipation of U.S. Non-Farm at 8:30
• Italian CPI slightly better: 0.4%
• In 20 minutes…
• UK Halifax HPI better at 0.8%; sterling moves higher on the release.

EURUSD heads to new lows. 100 day MA a focus Posted: 04 Feb 2011 07:04 AM PST The EURUSD has moved to new lows and is approaching the key 100 day MA level. The market will be watching the 1.3566 level and the 38.2% of the move down at the 1.3595 for bias clues. IF the levels can hold, the downside pressure should remain. If the price moves above each, the bearishness loses some of its steam.

Surprise! US Employment Report confuses traders Posted: 04 Feb 2011 05:54 AM PST

Nonfarm Payrolls Fall Hard, Unemployment Rate Lower Posted: 04 Feb 2011 05:33 AM PST Change in Nonfarm Payrolls:         Survey:  146K     Actual:  36K    Prior:  103K      Revision: 121K Change in Private Payrolls:         Survey: 145K    Actual: 50K     Prior:  113K     Revised: 139K Change in Manufacturing Payrolls:      Survey: 10K     Actual:  49K       Prior:  10K     Revised: 14K Unemployment Rate:     Survey:  9.5%     Actual: 9.0%     Prior:  9.4%       Avg Hourly Earning (MoM) All Emp:    Survey:  0.2%     Actual: 0.4%      Prior:  0.1%          Avg Hourly Earning (YoY) All Emp:    Survey:  1.7%      Actual: 1.9%      Prior:  1.8%       Avg Weekly Hours All Employees:    Survey:  34.3      Actual:  34.2       Prior:  34.3

US Unemployment comes in mixed Posted: 04 Feb 2011 05:30 AM PST NFP : 36 vs 146 expected - surprise Private Payroll: 50 K vs 145K - surprise Unemployment Rate: 9.0% - surprise Manufacturing :49K vs 10K expected - surprise Hourly earnings +0.4% vs 0.2% - surprise Benchmark survey changed show 300K less jobs in 2010 The underemployed fell to 16.1% from 16.7% last month This is a confusing report. USDJPY is indicative. Sharp fall on the payroll changes, followed by a rally back higher on the unemployment rate. The weather likely had an effect with Construction falling (-38K) along with Transportation jobs. The Manufacturing job increase is strong. Labor force deline of 600,000 leads to sharp fall in the unemployment rate

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.4.2011 Posted: 04 Feb 2011 05:28 AM PST Good Morning: A quiet session overnight before this morning’s US employment data. The USD stayed near it’s weekly high, as speculation that the employment data this morning will show that the US added more jobs.  The majors traded in narrow ranges as traders squared up positions before this morning’s release. With a large blizzard that caused problems throughout a big section of the country during the time that the US government gathers the NFP data-the numbers this morning may be a bit misleading.  We will wait and see. Protests in Egypt gained support as they called for today to be the “day of departure” for President Mubarak. Today may well be a “decisive” day in Egypt’s future-and the world will be watching. World equity markets rose-US Futures are also higher at this time. Oil:$91.13                                                        Gold:$1348.70 TIME FOR EST. 8:30A.M. CHANGE IN NONFARM PAYROLLS 140K 103K 8:30A.M. CHANGE IN PRIVATE PAYROLS 140K 113K 8:30A.M. CHANGE IN MANUFACT. PAYROLLS         10K 10K 8:30A.M. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 9.50% 9.40% 8:30A.M. AVG. HOURLY EARNINGS MoM ALL EMP. 0.20% 0.10% 8:30A.M. AAVG. HOURLY EARNING YoY ALL EMP. 1.70% 1.80% 8:30A.M. AVG. WEEKLY HOURS ALL EMP. 34.3O       34.3O HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK For those lovers of US “Football”-enjoy Sunday’s Super Bowl.

US Nonfarm Payroll & Unemployment Rate Data Due at 8:30AM Posted: 04 Feb 2011 05:09 AM PST

The Technical Levels to eye through the US Employment Posted: 04 Feb 2011 04:37 AM PST

ECB Notwotny retracts inflation remark Posted: 04 Feb 2011 04:15 AM PST In a German newspaper yesterday, ECB Notwotny had implied that the ECB inflation projection was 1.8%. This was above the ECB last projection of 1.5%, it is still below the 2.0% threshold the ECB likes to maintain. The problem is the forecast is not to be released for another month.  CPI inflation is currently above that level at 2.4%.  This gives more credence to the more calming remarks from Jean Claude Trichet after their interest rate meeting, but it let the proverbial cat out of the bag. However, Notwotny is now retracting the comment saying that the 1.8% prediction is not that of the ECB.

Canadian Employment Rate Worse Posted: 04 Feb 2011 04:00 AM PST Unemployment rate - Survey: 7.6%   Actual: 7.8%   Prior: 7.6% Net Change in Employment - Survey: 15.0K   Actual: 69.2K   Prior: 22.0K

Canadian Unemployment in 5 minutes… Posted: 04 Feb 2011 03:56 AM PST

ECB’s Paramo speaks to reporters in Spain Posted: 04 Feb 2011 03:37 AM PST We are always following our mandate. See short term pressures on inflation due to energy. Inflation expectations “anchored” in line with effects. Important to avoid second-round effects. ECB’s bond buying independent of EFSF decisions. Bond purchases will help “normalize” debt markets. ECB decisions not “contingent” on government decisions. ECB can only lend to solvent institutions. We have “all levers” to stem banks addiction to funds. ECB “closely” monitoring price developments.

Market Stagnant in Anticipation of U.S. Non-Farm at 8:30 Posted: 04 Feb 2011 02:44 AM PST So far this session most pairs have been trading sideways as the market waits in anticipation of the U.S. non-farm employment change number due out in less than 3 hours. Seen here  the EUR/USD has been trading inside of a 3o pip range as we are now half way through the current trading day. Additionally: the USD/JPY has a 19 point range and USD/CHF a 35 point range. *Note: ECB President Trichet is due to speak at 6:30.

Italian CPI slightly better: 0.4% Posted: 04 Feb 2011 02:01 AM PST The euro traded slightly higher on the release.

In 20 minutes… Posted: 04 Feb 2011 01:40 AM PST

UK Halifax HPI better at 0.8%; sterling moves higher on the release. Posted: 04 Feb 2011 12:00 AM PST

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• US Factory Orders & ISM Composite Come in Higher
• EURUSD tests target support on better ISM/Factory Orders
• EURUSD moves lower on Trichet and technical bearishness. This and more in the NY Morning Forex Commentary
• EURUSD marches lower. Technical levels breached
• EURUSD moves lower on Trichet, better US data
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite & Factory Orders Due at 10AM
• ECB Trichet comments
• Initial Claims fall as expected. Unit Labor Costs fall
• US Unit Labor Costs Fall, Nonfarm Productivity & Jobless Claims Better
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.3.2011
• ECB Trichet, Initial Claims, ISM awaited today. Employment tomorrow. NY Opening Forex Commentary
• 8:30AM Economic Data Includes: Nonfarm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs & Jobless Claims
• French official said markets are regaining confidence in the euro.
• Spanish bond auction goes well; 3.5B sold at offer side
• Euro monthly retail sales much worse at -0.6%.

US Factory Orders & ISM Composite Come in Higher Posted: 03 Feb 2011 07:08 AM PST

EURUSD tests target support on better ISM/Factory Orders Posted: 03 Feb 2011 07:05 AM PST The ISM non manufacturing and better Factory Orders have sent the EURUSD down further to test the next target at the 1.3627-39 area. The price is finding support against the level (see prior post) at least for the time being. The bias has swung toward the dollar today - especially against the EURO - with corrections shallow.

EURUSD moves lower on Trichet and technical bearishness. This and more in the NY Morning Forex Commentary Posted: 03 Feb 2011 06:31 AM PST EURUSD moves lower on Trichet and technical bearishness. This and more in the NY Morning Forex Commentary

EURUSD marches lower. Technical levels breached Posted: 03 Feb 2011 06:02 AM PST The market is interpretting ECB Trichets comments as being less hawkish than prior. That and an increasingly more bearish bias is sending the EURUSD lower. From a technical perspective the price is below the 100 (1.3738 - 1) and 200 hour (1.3704 - 3) MAs, below the 1.3743 level (61.8% of the move down from the November 2010 high to the low -2) and is now below a trendline connecting the Jan 19th low to the low on January 31st. That level comes in at the 1.3672 level currently (at 4). All these levels now become resistance levels for the pair.  These are borderline levels to trade against on corrective rallies. Targets on the downside not focus on the 1.3627-39 area which was an area that the market used as support and resistance from Jan24th to Jan31st. When you get a sharp move to the downside, it is also a good idea to measure short term retracements from the move down. ON the 5 minute chart below, the move down from the 8:30 release/events has the 38.2% retracement of the move coming in at 1.3698.

EURUSD moves lower on Trichet, better US data Posted: 03 Feb 2011 05:57 AM PST

US ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite & Factory Orders Due at 10AM Posted: 03 Feb 2011 05:54 AM PST

ECB Trichet comments Posted: 03 Feb 2011 05:35 AM PST Very Close Monitoring of inflation Rates are appropriate Positive underlying growth Inflation expectations  firmly anchored Current Monetary policy accomodative Non standard measures are temporary Risk to economy to the downside Financial market tension pose downside risk Inflation to moderate toward the  end of the year. But inflation could still increase temporarily in the near term Inflation risk broadly balanced. Could move to the upside Risk of inflation due to commodity prices  Money and credit growth is still low Essential for countries to fully implement fiscal plans Spending Restraint is important step Implementation of credible policies is crucial What counts is not immediate inflation Look at Euro area as a whole not only Germany Absolutely essential to avoid second round effects Bond program in ongoing

Initial Claims fall as expected. Unit Labor Costs fall Posted: 03 Feb 2011 05:32 AM PST Initial Claims fell to 415K after the volatile last couple weeks for the release that saw the number move from 403K to 457K. The 415K is likely more appropriate. Unit Labor Costs down which is a worry for future spending.

US Unit Labor Costs Fall, Nonfarm Productivity & Jobless Claims Better Posted: 03 Feb 2011 05:32 AM PST Nonfarm Productivity:    Survey: 2.0%         Actual:  2.6%        Prior:  2.3%        Unit Labor Costs:    Survey:  0.2%         Actual:  -0.6%         Prior:  -0.1% Jobless Claims:  Survey:  420K    Actual: 415K   Prior: 454K    Revised:  457K    Continuing Claims:  Survey: 3950K    Actual:  3925K    Prior: 3991K  Revised: 4009K

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.3.2011 Posted: 03 Feb 2011 05:21 AM PST Good Morning: The USD gained overnight ahead of US data due out today (ISM), which is expected to show that the service sector has increased again, and tomorrows employment data which is expected to show an increase in hiring. As expected the ECB left interest rates uncharged-and President Trichet will hold a press conference later this morning. Cable had a good showing overnight with positive data on the UK’s service sectors, raising speculation that the BOE may have some room to raise interest rates later this year. World equity markets are higher-but US Futures are slightly lower at this time. Oil is higher as the conflict in Egypt turned violent with gunfire being heard in Cairo’s Tahir Square.  Even though no disruptions in supplies have happened to the oil markets yet-investors are keeping a close eye on the events in Egypt.   Oil:$91.59                                                 Gold:$1329.40 TIME FOR EST. PRIOR 7:45 A.M. ECB RATE DECISION 8:30A.M. ECB PRESS CONFERENCE 8:30A.M. ICSC CHAIN STORE SALES YoY JAN. 3.10% 8:30A.M. NONFARM PRODUCTIVITY 4Q P 2.00% 2.30% 8:30A.M. UNIT LABOR COSTS      4Q P 0.20% -0.10% 8:30A.M. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS 1/29 420K 454K 8:30A.M. CONTINUING CLAIMS 1/22 3950K 3991K 10:00A.M. ISM-NONMANF.COMPOSITE JAN. 57.1O     57.1O 10:00A.M. FACTORY ORDERS DEC. -0.50% 0.70% HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

ECB Trichet, Initial Claims, ISM awaited today. Employment tomorrow. NY Opening Forex Commentary Posted: 03 Feb 2011 04:55 AM PST

8:30AM Economic Data Includes: Nonfarm Productivity, Unit Labor Costs & Jobless Claims Posted: 03 Feb 2011 04:34 AM PST

French official said markets are regaining confidence in the euro. Posted: 03 Feb 2011 03:00 AM PST France calls for euro-zone governance accord by march EU summit. Reiterates calls for more “flexible” EFSF fund. Favors EFSF bond purchases, government official says. France wants fund to have “precautionary approach”. Calls for regular EU leasers meetings on governance plan. Wants to get EFSF to full 440B potential. “Not in full agreement” with Germany on EFSF future. France calls for minimum business tax across Europe.

Spanish bond auction goes well; 3.5B sold at offer side Posted: 03 Feb 2011 02:05 AM PST Average yields equalling the offer side of the market, which is almost back to the type of bidding seen pre-crisis. This further perpetuates Campa’s positive outlook on Spain, as he stated earlier the country will never need a bailout.

Euro monthly retail sales much worse at -0.6%. Posted: 03 Feb 2011 02:01 AM PST

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Bobbys Corner-Morning Update-Feb.2.2011
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.2.2011
• Focus on buying dollars cautiously today
• Better data, but dollar still has trouble
• The ADP Employment change comes in stronger
• ADP Employment due at 8:15 AM
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Challenger Job Cuts come at -46% YoY
• S&P lowers Ireland’s credit rating to A-/A2 from A-/A1
• Summers says U.S. growth to exceed forecasts
• Euro-zone PPI as expected at 0.8%
• 15 minutes…
• UK contruction PMI 53.7; better than expected.
• 1.6297 next stop for cable?
• Tonight’s first piece of data comes out at 4:30 (eastern)

Bobbys Corner-Morning Update-Feb.2.2011 Posted: 02 Feb 2011 07:12 AM PST Good Morning: A quick up date on the crisis in the  crisis Middle East: Even after President Mubarak’s speech last evening in which he explained that he will not  seek reelection in the upcoming elections scheduled for September 2011, the protesters seem to want more.  They want him to leave office earlier, and do not feel that he can stay in power for 8 more months.  We hope that the US is utilizing it’s influence in Egypt to ensure that there is a smoothtransition of power.  With the most modern military equipment  (from the US) and the 10th largest army in the world it is imperative that world leaders do not allow chaos or any one party to gain an upper hand in the Egyptian political process. Jordan’s King Abdullah dissolved his government and appointed a new Prime Minister-as protestors have lead demonstrations against the government in the past few days.  The King seems to be trying to get ahead of any political problems before they get out of control. Yemen’s President Saleh also announced that he will no seek re election when his term expires in 2013.  He has been in office for 32 years.  He also commented that he will not be looking to install his son to replace him as President. Saleh has called for a emergency meeting of parliament today-ahead of scheduled demonstrations on Thursday across the country in opposition to his rule.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.2.2011 Posted: 02 Feb 2011 06:10 AM PST Good Morning: Today is Groundhog Day-and the folklore is that if the goundhog sees his shadow-we have 6 more weeks of winter-if he does not see his shadow-we will have an early spring.  Well-in New York there was no shadow to be seen-so that would mean an early spring-sorry but I am not that optimistic! Now to the markets:  S&P lowers Ireland debt rating, and they are still on negative watch. This was not a surprise move, and the markets have been anticipating this.   The Euro lost some steam after this announcement.  Speculation that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis is not going away anytime soon will continue to plague the single currency.  Spanish bonds rose, and the cost of insuring European government debt fell as optimism that EU ministers will agree on an expanded bailout plan ease some concerns. Oil:$91.12                                          Gold:$1339.80     TIME FOR EST. PRIOR 7:00A.M. MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS 28-Jan -12.90% 7:30A.M. CHALLENGER JOB CUTS YoY JAN. -29.00% 8:15A.M. ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE      JAN.      150K 297K HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Focus on buying dollars cautiously today Posted: 02 Feb 2011 06:08 AM PST

Better data, but dollar still has trouble Posted: 02 Feb 2011 05:39 AM PST

The ADP Employment change comes in stronger Posted: 02 Feb 2011 05:15 AM PST 187K jobs were added over the last month according to ADP Employment services. This is higher than the 140 K expected. Last month the reading came in initially at 287K. This was revised down to 247K. The 247K is still higher than the Private Payroll figure of 113 K announced by the Labor Department last month which this report is supposed to replicate. Note, however, that the difference between the two can be quite different. Nevertheless, the difference of 133K between the 247K and the 113K from the Labor department, may suggest that last months NFP numbers might be revised higher on Friday. Service added 166K jobs Manufacturing add 19K jobs Goods producing added 21K jobs (3 straight increases) Overall, a good report.

ADP Employment due at 8:15 AM Posted: 02 Feb 2011 05:14 AM PST Expectations are for a gain of 140K

The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 02 Feb 2011 04:49 AM PST The Challenger Job cuts showed job improvement. The dollar reacted to the upside at least temporarily. Later this morning is ADP jobs (at 8:15 am). All is a prelude to the US unemployment report on Friday.

Challenger Job Cuts come at -46% YoY Posted: 02 Feb 2011 04:32 AM PST Planned firings fell -46% to 38,519 from 71,482. This is the lowest job cuts announced on record going back to 1993

S&P lowers Ireland’s credit rating to A-/A2 from A-/A1 Posted: 02 Feb 2011 03:46 AM PST The euro remained little unchaged after the release.

Summers says U.S. growth to exceed forecasts Posted: 02 Feb 2011 02:19 AM PST Larry Summers, Director of the White House National Economics Council, made these comments while speaking on the U.S. economy in Moscow: U.S. economy to exceed consensus forecasts. U.S. to provide “significant impetus” to the world. Very optimistic on U.S. economy. EU debt “drama” has yet to play out. U.S. economy is close to achieving ‘escape velocity”. The rise of emerging markets is the “story of our time”.

Euro-zone PPI as expected at 0.8% Posted: 02 Feb 2011 02:03 AM PST December prices rose 5.3% yearly and 0.8% for the month.

15 minutes… Posted: 02 Feb 2011 01:46 AM PST

UK contruction PMI 53.7; better than expected. Posted: 02 Feb 2011 01:35 AM PST The GBP/USD made a new session high of 1.62092 following the release.

1.6297 next stop for cable? Posted: 02 Feb 2011 01:19 AM PST The British pound and Euro have been trading continually higher for almost a month now with pull-backs seen from the hourly perspective, but an overall upward trend seen on the daily. On the daily chart below you can see the pair ran into some resistance around 1.60176, an old resistance level from Summer 2010, and traded lower until it turned around at the 100 day moving average where support was then found on January 28th and 31st; the GBP has gained nearly 300 points on the USD since then. If this momentum continues, the next stop higher is 1.6297; a full retracement of the move from November 4th to December 28th. Worse then expected employment numbers this week out of the United States may be the catalyst for the rest of the move with ADP non-farm employment change  due 4 hours from now expected at 148K and Friday’s non-farm expected at 133K and the unemployment rate expected at 9.5%.

Tonight’s first piece of data comes out at 4:30 (eastern) Posted: 02 Feb 2011 12:44 AM PST

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Rumor Mill: Mubarek has resigned
• Construction Spending Weaker & ISM Rises
• ISM Manufacturing index much stronger.
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• USDCHF tests trendline and 100 hour MA
• US Construction Spending & ISM Data due at 10AM
• GBPUSD tests intraday support levels
• Price back below the 1.3743 level. Level to watch today
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.1.2011
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Euro unemployment unchanged at 10%
• Euro-zone Unemployment @ 5
• Sterling gains on better PMI data
• EU’s Rehn
• German Unemployment change better

Rumor Mill: Mubarek has resigned Posted: 01 Feb 2011 07:23 AM PST Just a rumor

Construction Spending Weaker & ISM Rises Posted: 01 Feb 2011 07:07 AM PST Construction Spending MoM:  Survey: 0.1%    Actual:  -2.5%    Prior:  0.4%  Revised:  -0.2% ISM Manufacturing:   Survey: 58.0  Actual:  60.8  Prior:  57.0 JAN vs. DEC Production:  63.5 vs 63.0 last month New Orders            67.8  vs 62.0 last month Backlog of Orders *   58.0 vs  47.0 last month Supplier Deliveries*  58.6 vs 56.7 last month Inventory Change *    52.4 vs 51.8 last month Employment        61.7 vs  58.9 last month ISM Prices Paid:   Survey: 73.5  Actual:  81.5  Prior:  72.5

ISM Manufacturing index much stronger. Posted: 01 Feb 2011 07:05 AM PST US ISM is better than expected.  Prices Paid much higher. New orders and Employmnet also up. Overall, if the Fed is worried about prices, it may be commodities but with other components rising, it may also stick to other prices as well. Manufacturing index  60.8 vs  58.5 last month Prices paid         81.5 vs 72.5 last month  Production          63.5 vs 63.0 last month  New orders          67.8 vs 62.0 last month  Backlog of orders   58.0 vs 47.0 last month  Supplier deliveries  58.6 vs 56.7 last month  Inventories         52.4 vs 51.8 last month  Customer inventories  45.5 vs 40.0 last month Employment          61.7 vs 58.9 last month  New export orders   62.0 vs 54.5 last month  Imports             55.0 vs 50.5 last month The USDJPY was encouraged by this report rising to the lows from yesterdays trade at the 81.90.  This is providing some resistance for the pair.

The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 01 Feb 2011 06:32 AM PST

USDCHF tests trendline and 100 hour MA Posted: 01 Feb 2011 06:05 AM PST

US Construction Spending & ISM Data due at 10AM Posted: 01 Feb 2011 06:02 AM PST

GBPUSD tests intraday support levels Posted: 01 Feb 2011 05:50 AM PST

Price back below the 1.3743 level. Level to watch today Posted: 01 Feb 2011 05:33 AM PST

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.1.2011 Posted: 01 Feb 2011 05:23 AM PST Good Morning: Welcome to February.  We will see what the groundhog says tomorrow.  We start the day with news out of Egypt-protesters started to gather in Cairo’s Tahir Square as they prepare for today’s million people march.  The Egyptian military has promised not to fire on marchers, and the newly appointed Vice President is open to starting a dialogue with the opposition. News that S&P also lowered Egypt’s credit rating was no surprise to investors. On the FX front-the USD dropped in the overnight session as speculation that the global economic recovery is gaining traction.  This is pushing up equities, along with investors reduced demand for safer assets. World equity markets are higher-as are US Futures at this time. Oil:$91.72                                              Gold:$1337.20 TIME FOR EST. PRIOR REVISED 10:00A.M. CONSTRUCTION SPENDING DEC. 0.10% 0.40% 10:00A.M. ISM MANUFACTURING JAN. 57.9O 57.O    58.5O 10:00A.M. ISM PRICES PAID      JAN.      73.5O 72.5O   HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 01 Feb 2011 04:53 AM PST

Euro unemployment unchanged at 10% Posted: 01 Feb 2011 02:00 AM PST

Euro-zone Unemployment @ 5 Posted: 01 Feb 2011 01:54 AM PST

Sterling gains on better PMI data Posted: 01 Feb 2011 01:31 AM PST Manufacturing PMI: Survey: 58.0   Actual: 62.0   Prior: 58.3 Net Lending to Individuals (m/m): Survey: 0.6B   Actual: 0.1B   Prior: 0.7B Final Mortgage Approvals: Survey: 47K   Actual: 43K   Prior: 40K M4 Money Supply (m/m): Survey: 0.3%   Actual: -1.3K   Prior: -0.8% From a daily perspective this is the highest the GBP/USD has traded since November 15th. Yesterday the pair broke through the 61.8% line again on the move from November 4th highs to December 28th lows and has continued higher. With the trend thus far this year being upward, continuing momentum may see the pair eventually trade up towards 1.6297. Some additional confidence may have also been added earlier by a better than expected UK housing price index as the housing market in many countries is one of the stalling economic recovery, especially the U.S.

EU’s Rehn Posted: 01 Feb 2011 01:02 AM PST Comments from a speech in Helsinki: 2011 didn’t start with “doomsday” signs. Euro area expansion to Estonia was successful. Stronger action is needed to combat debt crisis. “The sooner the better” on debt fighting measures. European economic outlook now two-pronged Worst of debt crisis ‘could be over”. Premature to say if Europe’s debt crisis is dead. It would have been irresponsible to let Greece fail. Stronger action is needed to comabt Europe’s debt crisis. Europe is China’s largest market, China needs a healthy EU.

German Unemployment change better Posted: 01 Feb 2011 12:57 AM PST German unemployment fell seasonally adjusted to 13,000 in January and the jobless rate was slightly better at 7.4%. German labor office says positive development continues and it sees labor demand increasing further.

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