Friday, March 4, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Feds Yellen says global balances could threaten recovery

Posted: 04 Mar 2011 07:01 AM PST

She also calls for flexible exchange rates

The NY Morning Forex Commentary

Posted: 04 Mar 2011 06:43 AM PST

EURUSD starts to fall a touch, but momentum is limited.

Posted: 04 Mar 2011 05:50 AM PST

The reaction to the NFP was somewhat confusing. The price fell, rallied to 1.4000 resistance level and is now modestly falling. The price fell back below the pennant formation support at the 1.3956 level but needs to get through the next support at the 1.3916-20 level to keep the bears (dollar bulls) satisfied.

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The low for the day prior to the report was at 1.3948. A break below that level needs to attract selling interest.

USDJPY tests 100 day MA and finds support

Posted: 04 Mar 2011 05:42 AM PST

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The USDJPY moved higher than lower after the Unemployment report. The pair has found support buyers against the 100 day MA at the 82.56 level. The level also corresponds to the trendline support on the hourly chart (see below).  Keep an eye on this key level.  A move below 82.50 would not be welcomed (high from yesterdays trading).

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Nonfarm Payroll & Unemployment Rate Stronger

Posted: 04 Mar 2011 05:35 AM PST

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls:         Survey:  196K     Actual:  192K    Prior:  36K      Revision: 63K

Change in Private Payrolls:         Survey: 200K    Actual: 222K     Prior:  50K     Revised: 68K

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls:      Survey: 25K     Actual:  33K       Prior:  49K     Revised: 53K

Unemployment Rate:     Survey:  9.1%     Actual: 8.9%     Prior:  9.0%      

Avg Hourly Earning (MoM) All Emp:    Survey:  0.2%     Actual: 0.0%      Prior:  0.4%         

Avg Hourly Earning (YoY) All Emp:    Survey:  1.9%      Actual: 1.7%      Prior:  1.9%      

Avg Weekly Hours All Employees:    Survey:  34.3      Actual: 34.2         Prior:  34.2  

US Employment better. Unemployment rate 8.9% 222K Private Payroll

Posted: 04 Mar 2011 05:30 AM PST

Unemployment Rate continues to move lower. Now at 8.9%
NFP +192K
Private Payroll 222K
Manufacturing added 33K
Average workweek 34.2

There are revisions to prior numbers as well with last month rising to 63K from 36K. Private sector payroll rose to 68K from 50 K as well.

Although the number is better, the dollar has ironically fallen. The USDJPY moved higher initially but has since moved back lower toward support.

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Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.4.2011

Posted: 04 Mar 2011 05:11 AM PST

bob-slade-forex-1-150x200Good Morning:

Asian and European markets were relatively range bound-as the markets await this morning’s employment data in the US.  The guesstimate is for NFP to be up by almost 200K.  With this weeks positive data, we may expect to see better than expected NFP and unemployment rate numbers.
Traders are hoping for good numbers after January’s disappointing results-which were highly contributed to the rough winter weather that seemed to surround most of the US.
I think that we will need to see a few months of positive employment data before the Fed believes that this is a trend, and not a one-off.

Asian and European equity markets traded higher-and US Futures are also higher at this time.

Oil:$102.85                                                               Gold:$1418.50

  TODAY’S RELEASES
TIME FOR EST.    PRIOR
8:30A.M. CHANGE IN NONFAM PAYROLLS FEB. 197K      36K
8:30A.M. CHANGE IN PRIVATE PAYROLLS FEB. 200K       50K
8:30A.M. CHANGE IN MANUFACT. PAYROLLS        FEB.  25K        49K
8:30A.M. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE FEB. 9.10% 9.00%
8:30A.M. AVG. HOURLY EARNINGS MoM ALL EMP. FEB. 0.20% 0.40%
8:30A.M. AVG. HOURLY EARNINGS YoY ALL EMP FEB. 1.90% 1.90%
8:30A.M. AVG. WEEKLY HOURS ALL EMPLOYEES FEB.         34.3O        34.2O
10:00A.M. FACTORY ORDERS       JAN. 2.00% 0.20%

HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

NY Opening Forex Commentary : US Unemployment Report

Posted: 04 Mar 2011 04:53 AM PST

 

In this preview of the US Unemployment Report, I will go through the key technical levels that the traders will be looking out.  To find those levels I use trendlines, the 100 and 200 bar MA and Fibonacci Retracements. These are basic tools the market tends to like to use to determine the bullish or bearish bias of the market. They also help define your trading risk.  I take a look at the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF and USDCAD in the report, the major currency pairs that traders like to focus on.

Risk is increased into the report. Be sure to define your risk as the moves can be exagerrated.

US Nonfarm Payroll, Unemployment Rate & Average Earnings Data Due at 8:30AM

Posted: 04 Mar 2011 04:40 AM PST

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Halifax HPI

Posted: 04 Mar 2011 12:21 AM PST

Halifax HPI m/m came in at -0.9%, weaker than the -0.6% expected.

Gbp/Usd has lost 20 points since release, currently trading at 1.6260.

3-4 Economic Calendar

Posted: 03 Mar 2011 08:50 PM PST

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Weekly Wrap with Greg & Shawn TODAY 12:30pm

Posted: 03 Mar 2011 12:16 PM PST

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Weekly Wrap Show live online with Greg and Shawn this Friday at 12:30pm TODAY. We will be looking at the big release of the month and then we will review trades that took place during the week. Reserve your seat now

US Non Farm Payroll Roundtable Rebroadcast

Posted: 03 Mar 2011 10:50 AM PST

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Greg Michalowski, Bill Lawless and Shawn Powell host a Roundtable on the US Non Farm Payroll report- Watch the show

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

Traders Course Lesson 7 rebroadcast March 03 2011

Posted: 03 Mar 2011 08:30 AM PST

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FXDD Traders Course Lesson 7 March 03 2011 - Watch the Rebroadcast

This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

USDJPY moves higher on better US data. EURJPY surges too

Posted: 03 Mar 2011 07:55 AM PST

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The USDJPY is moving higher today on the back of the better US Initial Claims and ISM Non Manufacturing data. The pair is also supported by the surge in the EURJPY today on the back of carry trade excitement. With the ECB looking to raise rates, the traders looking to take advantage of the carry profits between the EURO and the JPY are coming out in full force (see chart below). The next target for the EURJPY comes in at 115.00. A break above that level should lead to further buying interest in the pair and may also support the EURO in the process. 

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The USDJPY has good support now at the 82.20 level. This is the 200 bar MA (green line in the USDJPY chart above).  Better support comes in at 82.09/11 where the 38.2% of the days range and the breakout point (trendline) occurred.

The market seems to be keying up for a strong US EMployment report tomorrow. The pair has also been sufficiently pressured since peaking in mid February. Support against trendline on the daily chart held (see chart below). This also gives the pair a key technical reason to move higher. Key resistance will be tested at the 82.55 level where the 100 day MA is found.  I would expect that on the first test at least, profit takers are likely to surface against the level.  A move above it, however, should not be faded as it turns the bias bullish for those traders who watch that chart.

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Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

EURUSD continues move higher

Posted: 02 Mar 2011 07:11 AM PST

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The EURUSD has continued its move to the upside as price corrections continue to find buyers at the key levels and shorts are forced to cover.  The market broke above the trendline resistance at the 1.3840 level and although the correction moved to a low of 1.3838, that was short lived and the marekt surged to new highs for 2011.

 The last time the price was at this area was in October and November of 2010. At that time the price consolidated with 1.3856 and 1.3873 being a support area (see chart below). Above that the 1.3968 to 1.4000 level was a ceiling level (see chart below).  The market moved around these levels with some move above and below that were rejected.  With the current price above the 1.3873 level, the upside remains the trend and the bias. 

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What is the risk?  The risk now is for a move back below the high from Monday and Tuesday’s trade. That level comes in at the 1.3854 level.

The price

FXDD Trading Platform of the week 4pm TODAY

Posted: 02 Mar 2011 07:07 AM PST

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FXDD Trading Platform of the week at 4pm TODAY. Jeff Baskin will cover FXDD mobile trading platforms. Register here

The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing.

Posted: 02 Mar 2011 06:26 AM PST

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March 2 2011

Posted: 02 Mar 2011 06:14 AM PST

bob-slade-forex-2-150x200Good Morning:

The USD continued to trade lower as  concerns over the Middle Eastern turmoil take center stage in the markets.
With oil above $100/barrel for the 2nd day, market participants are looking at the Swiss franc as a safe haven from all the turmoil.
The Euro picked up some support overnight as PPI (producer prices) data in the Euro Zone was a bit stronger than expected.  Traders are betting that the ECB will be looking to lift interest rates sooner than later.
The Swissie, greenback and JPY are the currencies that traders look to in times of unrest and political uncertainty.
We are seeing strength in Swissie at this time-but uncertainty should support the USD too.

Asian equity markets traded lower-as are European markets at this time.  US futures are also lower.

Oil:$101.04                                                                  Gold:$1435.30

TIME FOR EST. PRIOR
7:00A.M. MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS 25-Feb 13.20%
7:30A.M. CHALLENGER JOB CUTS YoY FEB. -46.10%
8:15A.M. ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE       FEB.       175K 187K
2:00P.M. FEDS BEIGE BOOK        

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

EURUSD breaks higher…

Posted: 02 Mar 2011 06:00 AM PST

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The EURUSD has broken above the underside of trendline resistance to new highs for the week (the high has also taken the price above the February/2011 high price at 1.3861).  That break level came in at the 1.3840 level and the level should now act as support for the pair.  If the 1.3840 level gives way, the break to the upside will lose some credibility and may result in a move back to to the downside.

The EURUSD got a boast by holding support on the corrective move to the downside following the stronger ADP report.  The ability to hold the 38.2% retracement at 1.3803 level of the sharp spike move to the upside, often gives intraday bulls confidence and worries the shorts in the market.   Holding the key level provides a level to trade against. With risk defined, traders have confidence and little fear.

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Canada Raw Materials Fall Along with Industrial Product Price

Posted: 02 Mar 2011 05:34 AM PST

Industrial Product Price (MoM):    Survey:  0.6%        Actual: 0.2%        Prior: 0.7%      Revised: 0.8%

Raw Materials Price Index (MoM):    Survey:  3.0%      Actual: 0.3%        Prior:  4.2%     

JAN vs DEC

Raw Materials:  151.3 vs 165.3
EX Mineral Fuels: 133.4 vs 148.4
Mineral Fuels:  176.9 vs 189.5
Vegetable Products: 112.3 vs 145.8
Animals:  104.8 vs 108.7
Wood:  89.8 vs 89.7
Ferrous Materials:  142.0 vs 158.6 
Non-Ferrous Metals: 241.7  vs 276.6
Non-Metallic Minerals: 146.4  vs 156.4

ADP Employment Figures Improve

Posted: 02 Mar 2011 05:21 AM PST

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ADP shows 217K private payroll job increase. What will NFP show?

Posted: 02 Mar 2011 05:16 AM PST

The ADP employment report showed a stronger than expected gain of 217K. The estimate was for a gain of 180K. The prior month was revised higher to 189K from 187K. This is in contrast to a gain of 50K for Private sector job growth that the Labor Department announced last month.

The ADP tends to overstate the Labor Department Private sector report. The closest it has been over the last 6 months has been 43,000. The farthest it has been has been 184,000. If this continues to hold true, the estimate of 200,000 for Private Sector employment on Friday would be too high.

The last few months data for Employment in the US has been confusing to the market. WHile the unemployment rate has fallen from 9.8% to 9.0%, the number of Non Farm Payroll jobs have been quite contained at 36k and 121k. In addition, the ADP report has shown much stronger job growth. Will this month’s NFP report be a catch up in job creation or will the unemployment rate move back to the upside? This will increase the risk for the report once again.

The EURUSD has declined/dollar gotten stronger on the back of the better than expectation number.

Tomorrow, FXDDwill have a roundtable on the Employment report where we will discuss the report and outline the risks. To register go to www.fxdd.com/live

Feds Hoenig says he favors raising rates to 1%, then pause

Posted: 02 Mar 2011 05:12 AM PST

He also commented that he does not favor easing policy during a recovery, and that raising to 1% would still be very accomodative.

Hoenig has been a hawk of late but he is not a voting member on the board in 2011.

NY Opening Forex Commentary for March 2nd 2011

Posted: 02 Mar 2011 04:55 AM PST

Challenger Job Cuts rise by 20% versus a year ago

Posted: 02 Mar 2011 04:32 AM PST

The announced job cuts totaled 50,702 this month compared to 38,519 last month. 

The East had 15,890 vs 6,535, Midwest 14,560 v 13,541, West 9,092 vs 9523 and South 11,160 vs 8,920.

This is not a good start for the employment week.  Challenger is blaming state, local and national government for the increase. A total of 16,380 government and non profit job cuts were announced. 

On a positive note, the report showed that there were announced plans to hire 72,581 workers which was up from 29,492 in January.  However, 60,000 was due to Home Depot announcement to hire 60,000 temporary workers.

Canada Raw Materials Price Index & Industrial Product Price Data due at 8:30AM

Posted: 02 Mar 2011 04:30 AM PST

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US ADP Employment Change Data due at 8:15AM

Posted: 02 Mar 2011 04:16 AM PST

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Mortgage Applications fall -6.5% in current week

Posted: 02 Mar 2011 04:04 AM PST

The Purchase Index fell by -6.1% and the Refinancing Index fell by -6.5%.  This occurred despite the fall in 30 year mortgages to 4.84%.

Eurozone PPI

Posted: 02 Mar 2011 02:02 AM PST

Eurozone PPI m/m came in at 1.5%, stronger than the 1.1% expected.

Eur/Usd has been rebounding from earlier losses and this news has pushed the pair to 1.3797, a new session high.

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Bernanke downplays oil inflation in prepared text

Posted: 01 Mar 2011 07:07 AM PST

He says it may cause temporary gain in inflation. 

Other highlights of the prepared text include:

  • Sustained oil prices would threaten growth
  • Fed monitoring commodity prices closely
  • Job growth relatively weak
  • Evidence of sustained consumer spending
  • Somewhat rapid pace of growth in 2011
  • Jobs only improve slightly
  • Some optimism on jobs
  • Unemployment may not return to normal for years
  • Job growth essential
  • Housing exceptionally weak
  • QE has been effective

Construction Spending Lower & ISM Data Slightly Better

Posted: 01 Mar 2011 07:05 AM PST

Construction Spending MoM:  Survey: -0.4%    Actual:  -.7%    Prior:  0.4%  Revised:  -1.6%

ISM Manufacturing:   Survey: 61.0  Actual:  61.4  Prior:  60.8

FEB vs. JAN
Production:  66.3 vs. 63.5
New Orders: 68.0 vs 67.8
Backlog of Orders: 59.0 vs 58.0
Supplier Deliveries: 59.4 vs 58.6
Inventory Change: 48.8 vs 52.4
Employment: 64.5  vs 61.7

ISM Prices Paid:   Survey: 83.0  Actual:  82.0  Prior:  81.5

ISM Manufacturing comes in stronger at 61.4

Posted: 01 Mar 2011 07:02 AM PST

The ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 61.4 vs 60.8 last month. The expectation was for a rise to 61.0. The Prices Paid rose to 82 from 81.5 last month. The expectation was for 83.0. Below is the component pieces versus last months values. The Employment component and New Orders both rose but so did Prices Paid.

Manufacturing index 61.4 v 60.8
Prices paid 82.0 v 81.5
Production 66.3 v 63.5
New orders 68.0 v 67.8Backlog of orders 59.0 v 58.0
Supplier deliveries 59.4 v 58.6
Inventories 48.8 v 52.4
Customer inventories 40.0 v 45.5
Employment 64.5 v 61.7New export orders 62.5 v 62.0
Imports 55.0 v 55.0

The NY Morning Forex Commentary

Posted: 01 Mar 2011 06:42 AM PST

USDCAD moves initially higher on BOC decision

Posted: 01 Mar 2011 06:06 AM PST

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The BOC kept there rate unchanged today at 1%. The pair has moved through trendline resistance at the 0.9714 level and this will now be watched as short term support by intraday traders looking for a temporary bottom in the pair. The upside target is channel resistance at the 0.9755 level. A move above that targets teh 0.9788 level.

Rate remains unchanged. Statement from Bank of Canada

Posted: 01 Mar 2011 06:01 AM PST

Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent OTTAWA – The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent. The global economic recovery is proceeding broadly in line with the Bank's projection in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR), although risks remain elevated. U.S. activity is solidifying and remains supported by stimulative fiscal and monetary policies. Ongoing challenges associated with sovereign and bank balance sheets will limit the pace of the European recovery and are a significant source of uncertainty to the global outlook. Robust demand from emerging-market economies is driving the underlying strength in commodity prices, which could be further reinforced temporarily by supply shocks arising from recent geopolitical events. The recovery in Canada is proceeding slightly faster than expected, and there is more evidence of the anticipated rebalancing of demand. While consumption growth remains strong, there are signs that household spending is moving more in line with the growth in household incomes. Business investment continues to expand rapidly as companies take advantage of stimulative financial conditions and respond to competitive imperatives. There is early evidence of a recovery in net exports, supported by stronger U.S. activity and global demand for commodities. However, the export sector continues to face considerable challenges from the cumulative effects of the persistent strength in the Canadian dollar and Canada's poor relative productivity performance. While global inflationary pressures are rising, inflation in Canada has been consistent with the Bank’s expectations. Underlying pressures affecting prices remain subdued, reflecting the considerable slack in the economy. Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. This leaves considerable monetary stimulus in place, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target in an environment of significant excess supply in Canada. Any further reduction in monetary policy stimulus would need to be carefully considered.

Canada Interest Rate Stays Unchanged

Posted: 01 Mar 2011 06:01 AM PST

Bank of Canada Keeps its interest rate unchanged at 1%

BOC Interest Rate decision awaited

Posted: 01 Mar 2011 05:56 AM PST

This is the last comments following the BOC rate decision on January 18th

“Bank of Canada maintains overnight rate target at 1 per cent
OTTAWA –The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent.

The global economic recovery is proceeding at a somewhat faster pace than the Bank had anticipated, although risks remain elevated. Private domestic demand in the United States has picked up and will be reinforced by recently announced monetary and fiscal stimulus. European growth has also been slightly stronger than anticipated. Ongoing challenges associated with sovereign and bank balance sheets will limit the pace of the European recovery and are a significant source of uncertainty to the global outlook. In response to overheating, some emerging markets have begun to implement more restrictive policy measures. Their effectiveness will influence the path of commodity prices, which have increased significantly since the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR), largely reflecting stronger global growth.

The recovery in Canada is proceeding broadly as anticipated, with a period of more modest growth and the beginning of the expected rebalancing of demand. The contribution of government spending is expected to wind down this year, consistent with announced fiscal plans. Stretched household balance sheets are expected to restrain the pace of consumption growth and residential investment. In contrast, business investment will likely continue to rebound strongly, owing to stimulative financial conditions and competitive imperatives. Net exports are projected to contribute more to growth going forward, supported by stronger U.S. activity and global demand for commodities. However, the cumulative effects of the persistent strength in the Canadian dollar and Canada's poor relative productivity performance are restraining this recovery in net exports and contributing to a widening of Canada's current account deficit to a 20-year high.

Overall, the Bank projects the economy will expand by 2.4 per cent in 2011 and 2.8 per cent in 2012 – a slightly firmer profile than had been anticipated in the October MPR. With a little more excess supply in the near term, the Bank continues to expect that the economy will return to full capacity by the end of 2012.

Underlying pressures affecting prices remain subdued, reflecting the considerable slack in the Canadian economy. Core inflation is projected to edge gradually up to 2 per cent by the end of 2012, as excess supply in the economy is slowly absorbed. Inflation expectations remain well-anchored. Total CPI inflation is being boosted temporarily by the effects of provincial indirect taxes, but is expected to converge to the 2 per cent target by the end of 2012.

Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. This leaves considerable monetary stimulus in place, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target in an environment of significant excess supply in Canada. Any further reduction in monetary policy stimulus would need to be carefully considered.

Gold continues upward move. Tests resistance

Posted: 01 Mar 2011 05:48 AM PST

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.1.2011

Posted: 01 Mar 2011 05:23 AM PST

bob-slade-forex-1-150x200Good Morning:

FX markets kept rates range bound-but it was a busy morning of data and activity.
Manufacturing data  in the Euro Zone showed a robust number-which is the highest reading in 11 years, and confirmed the estimates that analyst had expected.  This data also helped keep German unemployment lower.  The unemployment rate has now dropped to 7.3% in Germany.  This is an indication that growth in the region continues to expand-and hopefully the economic recovery in Germany will spread to the smaller EU nations.
In Australia-the RBA kept interest rates unchanged at 4.75%-which was expected.

World equity markets are higher-as are US Futures.

Oil:$97.73                                                     Gold:$1418.40 

TME FOR EST. PRIROR
10:00A.M. CONSTRUCTION SPENDING MoM   JAN. -0.40% -2.50%
10:00A.M. ISM MANUFACTURING FEB. 6O.8 6O.8
10:00A.M. ISM PRICES PAID      FEB. 82.5O 81.5O
10:00A.M. BERNANKE SPEAKS BEFORE SENATE   
BANKING  COMMITTEE.        

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

ISM & Constrution Spending Data due at 10AM

Posted: 01 Mar 2011 04:55 AM PST

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The NY Opening Forex Commentary/Register for Webinar

Posted: 01 Mar 2011 04:53 AM PST

Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate & Unemployment Rate

Posted: 01 Mar 2011 02:01 AM PST

Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate y/y came in at 2.4%, as expected.

Unemployment Rate came in at 9.9% , better than the 10.0% expected.

Eur/Usd trading just off highs at 1.3838.

UK net lending to indviduals, mortgage approvals, and M3 money supply

Posted: 01 Mar 2011 01:36 AM PST

Net lending to individuals m/m came in at 1.5B, stronger than the 0.3B expected.

Final mortgage approvals came in at 46,000, stronger than the 43,000 forecasted.

M3 money supply m/m came in at 0.8%, stronger than the 0.4% expected.

These figures had no substantial affect on sterling. Gbp/Usd is a touch firmer trading at 1.6310.

UK Manufacturing PMI as expected

Posted: 01 Mar 2011 01:32 AM PST

UK Manufacturing PMI came in at 61.5, as expected

Gbp/Usd trades at 1.6305.