Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Gold gets pounded
• ECB Gonzalez- Paramo says pressure grows for a rate rise. EURUSD still pressured
• USDCAD surges higher. Approaches resistance after sharp move
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary/Webinar today
• Forex Lesson 9 with Greg and Shawn TODAY 4pm
• Portugals Silveira says Portugal problem is a European problem
• Merkel says 3 years is not enough to solve Greece problems
• Canada Trade Balance Way Below Forecast
• Initial Claims worse than expected. Trade also negative
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.10.2011
• Jobless Claims & Trade Balance Both Rise
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary/Webinar on Why I love the 100 and 200 bar MA today at 4PM
• Canada Trade Balance Data Due at 8:30AM
• US Jobless Claims & Trade Balance Data Due at 8:30AM
• The EURUSD consolidates after sharp move lower

Gold gets pounded Posted: 10 Mar 2011 07:45 AM PST There is some liquidation in Gold going on and the price tests the underside of what was trendline resistance. A break of this level will next target the 1392.50 level on the daily chart.  This is the 38.2% of the move up from the January (2011) low to the high of 1444.79 reached in March.

ECB Gonzalez- Paramo says pressure grows for a rate rise. EURUSD still pressured Posted: 10 Mar 2011 07:35 AM PST Nothing new here.  The EURUSD is down off the highs and looks more vulnerable again.  The corrective move higher moved above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart but found resistance against trendline and failed to extend to the 1.3843 target (38.2% of the days trading range). This has led to further selling pressure as dip buyers sell out. The 1.3803 level (38.2% of the move up form the Feb 14th low is being tested now. A break below should find more selling with  a break of the 1.3796 level likely opening up the downside to more selling (channel trendline in the chart below).

USDCAD surges higher. Approaches resistance after sharp move Posted: 10 Mar 2011 07:20 AM PST Some pent up buying (and shorts) has taken place in the USDCAD today after an up and down session in earlier trade. The pair was pushed higher on the back a weak trade data/lower  oil/lower gold. The Trade surplus came in at 0.1B vs expectations of 2.6B. The prior month was also revised lower to 1.7 billion from 3 billion. Both imports and exports rose but imports far outpaced the exports (Imports rose by 5.5%, while exports only rose by 1%.) The move higher has taken the pair to the highest level since March 2nd. The next target would be the March high at the 0.9774 level. At the level (actually at 0.9777) is also the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the Feb 23rd high to the low reached yesterday.  The combination and the surge higher today, should find some profit taking resistance.  However, the break higher may be a clue that the downside is over for the time being at least. The downside support should be found at the 0.9734 level. This is the 38.2% of the move higher today.  Closer support may be found at the 0.9743 level. This was an interim high in the move higher in the NY morning (see chart below for the levels).  The ability to hold these corrective levels should give the dip buyers added confidence.  So look for buyers on the moves toward these levels and if the support can hold, the upside is likely to be explored further.

The NY Morning Forex Commentary/Webinar today Posted: 10 Mar 2011 06:43 AM PST Tell your friends. Free webinar today “Why I love and use the 100 and 200 bar MA”  To register go to:  www.fxdd.com/live   Thanks and good fortune with your trading,

Forex Lesson 9 with Greg and Shawn TODAY 4pm Posted: 10 Mar 2011 06:36 AM PST The traders course Forex Lesson 9 with Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell is TODAY at 4pm est Reserve your seat now. Room will fill up. We will discussing why we love using the 100 and 200 timeframe moving averages.

Portugals Silveira says Portugal problem is a European problem Posted: 10 Mar 2011 06:00 AM PST Says it must be faced at the European level. Joao Tiago Siveira is the secretary of state for the presidency of the council of ministers.  I am not sure the context of the comments on the newswires.

Merkel says 3 years is not enough to solve Greece problems Posted: 10 Mar 2011 05:44 AM PST She also rules out Greek debt restructuring. The EURUSD is back down after the brief rise off the weaker US jobs and Trade data. The EURUSD is below the low for the day and looks next to the 1.3784 level. With the new low, traders will be looking for momentum on the break. A move back above 1.3813 would not be welcomed for the momentum break sellers.  Nevertheless, there should be some profit taking against the 1.3784 level on the first test.

Canada Trade Balance Way Below Forecast Posted: 10 Mar 2011 05:34 AM PST

Initial Claims worse than expected. Trade also negative Posted: 10 Mar 2011 05:34 AM PST The Initial Claims moved back to 397k from 371K. Continuing Claims come n at 3771K. The Trade Balance was not good as well with the Deficit widening to -46.3. Ex oil the balance also worsened to -19.677B from -14.803B. The Real $ Goods balance, which is what is include in GDP, deteriorated to -49,512 billion from -46.046 billion. This is a negative for GDP for the month of January. The dollar has weakened after the report but is rebounding a little off the lows.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.10.2011 Posted: 10 Mar 2011 05:33 AM PST Good Morning: Moody’s downgraded Spain from Aa2 to Aa1-with a negative outlook.  Cites concerns over sustainability of Spanish govt finances Sees background of only moderate Spanish growth short-medium term Spain still has high vulnerability to market disruption Total cost of bank restructuring likely around 40-50 blnAs expected the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged. World equity markets were and are lower-as are US Futures. Oil:$102.59                                                Gold:$1418.10 TIME FOR EST. PRIOR 8:30A.M. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS 5-Mar 375K 368K 8:30A.M. CONTINUING CLAIMS 26-Feb 3750K 3774K 8:30A.M. TRADE BALANCE         JAN.     -$41.5B -$40.6B 9:45A.M. BLOOMBERG CONSUMER COMFORT 6-Mar -39.3O 2:00P.M. MONTHLY BUDGET STATEMENT Feb  -$225.4B -$220.9B HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Jobless Claims & Trade Balance Both Rise Posted: 10 Mar 2011 05:31 AM PST Jobless Claims:  Survey:  376K    Actual: 397K   Prior: 368K    Revised:  371K    Continuing Claims:  Survey:  3750K    Actual: 3771K    Prior: 3774K   Revised 3791K Trade Balance:  Survey:  -41.5B    Actual: -46.3B      Prior:  -40.6B   Revised: -40.3B

The NY Opening Forex Commentary/Webinar on Why I love the 100 and 200 bar MA today at 4PM Posted: 10 Mar 2011 05:09 AM PST The NY Opening Forex Commentary.  Some key levels to watch today in the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, NZDUSD and AUDUSD.

Canada Trade Balance Data Due at 8:30AM Posted: 10 Mar 2011 04:48 AM PST

US Jobless Claims & Trade Balance Data Due at 8:30AM Posted: 10 Mar 2011 04:45 AM PST

The EURUSD consolidates after sharp move lower Posted: 10 Mar 2011 04:33 AM PST The EURUSD fell sharply on the back of the downgrade of Spain today. In the chart above the fall found profit takers against the bottom of channel support.  That level comes in at the white circle marked 2 (see the hourly chart above).  The price has been consolidating over the last few hours but has found resistance against the 38.2% of the days trading range. If the market trends lower at a steep pace like it did today, the market tends to pay attention to the 38.2% retracement for clues as to the strength of the trend move. If the price can hold the level, look for pressure to continue. If the corrective level (at 1.38495 - see chart below) can be breached, the trend bias may be more neutral.  So far the price has remained below that retracement. Note it has also maintained the price below the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (blue line in the chart below at 1.3845 currently). Staying below both, keeps the bears in charge and could scare longs. The low for the day (and trendline in the hourly chart above) are the next target to get through below.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• US Wholesale inventories and sales pretty strong
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Will the EURUSD find the buyers or sellers here
• Gold tests recent ceiling resistance and finds some provit taking selling.
• EURUSD breaks lower to next support. Watch 1.3908 area on retracement now.
• RBA Stevens US, UK, EU recoveries protracted. Asia Rapid
• EURUSD tests days Fibo retracement level at 1.3911
• US Wholesale Inventories Due at 10AM
• Canada House Price Index Better than Expectations
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.9.2011
• The NY Opening Forex Webinar is available for viewing
• Canada New House Price Index Data due at 8:30AM
• German Industrial Production
• UK Trade Balance
• Swiss CPI

US Wholesale inventories and sales pretty strong Posted: 09 Mar 2011 07:01 AM PST The Wholesale inventories rose 1.1% vs 0.9% expected. December was revised higher as well. Although inventories rose, the sales rose by a greater 3.4%. As a result the Inventory to Sales ratio fell to 1.13 which is low and suggests that in the future inventories will need to be replenished. Overall, this is a good number for the economy. Altough inventories are higher with strong sales it is ok. Overall, it adds to 1Q GDP and also suggests - if sales continue - inventories will need to be replenished going forward (higher growth). There are voluntary inventory additions and there are involutary inventory additions. With sales strong and the inventort to sales ratio low, I consider this a good inventory addition. Despite the better number, the dollar against the EURO has declined (EURUSD is back above the 1.3908). The action in the market seems rather random in the NY session at least.

The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 09 Mar 2011 06:37 AM PST

Will the EURUSD find the buyers or sellers here Posted: 09 Mar 2011 06:14 AM PST The EURUSD is testing the 1.3908 level. This is key for today’s trade. Will the sellers emerge. Be aware. This was the level from yesterdays trade that found some short covering buyers that took the price up to 1.3924 area, before moving lower in the late afternoon.

Gold tests recent ceiling resistance and finds some provit taking selling. Posted: 09 Mar 2011 06:13 AM PST Gold last night tested trendline support and the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above). This was too good to pass up for traders and the market rotated back to the upside. The mideast tensions keep gold supported as a safe haven currency.  The next level to get thorugh would be the 1436.75 to 1437 area. This has been a ceiling high for Gold over the last 48 hours of trading. A move above this level would be positive/bullish confirmation for Gold.

EURUSD breaks lower to next support. Watch 1.3908 area on retracement now. Posted: 09 Mar 2011 06:03 AM PST The EURUSD broke through the 38.2% of the days range and found a new round of selling. The low has moved to test teh converged 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart and is finding some intraday buyers (at 1.3893). The 1.3896 area is also some support against the underside of the trendline on the hourly chart (see chart below).  A break below should trigger even more selling pressure.  Watch now for resistance at the 1.3908 area to find sellers. If it does, I would expect another rotation to the downside for the pair.

RBA Stevens US, UK, EU recoveries protracted. Asia Rapid Posted: 09 Mar 2011 05:49 AM PST Global economy has been quite a robust one Asia accomodative policies out of place recently Not clear more Asia demand growth is desirable Good deal more Australia resource investment coming Praised AUstralia 5% joblessness, moderate inflation Higher AUD$, cautious consumers working in the RBA’s favor The AUDUSD is moving avove the 100 hour MA at the 1.0120 level pushing the bias to the upside . A move above the confirming 200 hour MA at the 1.0136 level is the next hurdle for the pair. Key topside resistance for the pair comes in at the 1.0180-86 level at the recent high for the pair at the 1.0200

EURUSD tests days Fibo retracement level at 1.3911 Posted: 09 Mar 2011 05:46 AM PST

US Wholesale Inventories Due at 10AM Posted: 09 Mar 2011 05:42 AM PST

Canada House Price Index Better than Expectations Posted: 09 Mar 2011 05:37 AM PST Canada New House Price Index(MoM):    Survey: 0.1%    Actual: 0.2%    Prior:  0.1% Jan vs. Dec Total(MoM)%:  0.2% vs 0.1% House Only: 0.3% vs -0.1% Land Only: 0.1% vs 0.2% Total(YoY)%:  1.9% vs 2.1% House Only: 2.2% vs 2.4% Land Only: 0.8% vs 0.7% Total(3-Mon Annualized)%:  1.9% vs 1.6% House Only: 0.9% vs 0.6% Land Only: 2.7% vs 2.7%

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.9.2011 Posted: 09 Mar 2011 05:30 AM PST Good Morning: The Euro garnered some support after reports that the ECB has stepped in to buy Greek and Portuguese bonds to calm the jittery markets-this is after the yield on the Portuguese bonds rose..  The unemployment rate in Greece moved up to 14.8% from 13.9% in November , another sign that the periphery economies in the EU are still under pressure. There were also rumors that the ECB has been sniffing around and checking rates on Irish bonds as well.   Most world markets (except the Middle Eastern Bourses) were higher-as are US Futures. Oil has stayed high, and OPEC has made comments that they have no plans to increase production-as supplies are sufficient at this time according to OPEC sources.  Continued fighting in Libya along with conflicts in the region will keep pressure on crude for the foreseeable future. Oil:$105.00                                                                              Gold:$1434.50 TIME FOR EST. PRIOR 7:00A.M. MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS 4-Mar -6.50% 10:00A.M. WHOLESALE INVENTORIES JAN. 0.90% 1.00% HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

The NY Opening Forex Webinar is available for viewing Posted: 09 Mar 2011 05:10 AM PST

Canada New House Price Index Data due at 8:30AM Posted: 09 Mar 2011 04:54 AM PST

German Industrial Production Posted: 09 Mar 2011 03:02 AM PST German Industrial Production m/m came in at 1.8%, inline with expectations. Eur/Usd up 5 points since release, trading at 1.3883.

UK Trade Balance Posted: 09 Mar 2011 01:34 AM PST UK Trade Balance came in at -7.1B, stronger than the -8.5B expected. Gbp/Usd has gained about 20 points since release, trading at 1.6187.

Swiss CPI Posted: 09 Mar 2011 12:22 AM PST Swiss CPI m/m came in at 0.4%, stronger than the 0.3% expected. Eur/Chf is just off session lows, trading at 1.2958, Usd/Chf also came off a bit, currently at .9343.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD tests 200 hour MA and holds test
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary
• OPEC have no plans for extraordinary meeting
• Gold tests support. Watching closely.
• Canada Housing Starts comes in stronger at 181.9
• ECB/Buba Weber says inflation may be worse but EURUSD falls
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary/Webinar today at 4PM
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.8.2011
• Greek 10 year yield climbs to highest since EURO start
• German Factiory Orders for January up 2.9%
• Eur/Usd trading at 100 hour m/a
• French Trade Deficit 5.89B, worse than the forecasted 5.0B
• Swiss unemployment rate drops to 3.4%, as expected
• 3-8 Economic Calendar
• Forex Basics March 7th 2011 rebroadcast

EURUSD tests 200 hour MA and holds test Posted: 08 Mar 2011 06:45 AM PST The EURUSD has continued its move to the downside and is down testing the 200 hour MA at the 1.3862 level (green line in the chart above). This level was the target support level talked about in our morning commentary (CLICK HERE). The market has found profit taking buyers against the level on the first test.  Resistance above now comes in at the 1.3905-11 level.  Staying below this level keeps the bears in charge - at least intraday. The EURUSD has been under presssure and focus switches from higher rates to debt concerns. Greece / Portugal debt is getting hit and the ECB is focused on raising rates in the face of it.  WIth the technical picture also deteriorating, the traders seem content to lighten up long positions. Greece 10 year Bond Yields Portugal 10 year Debt

The NY Morning Forex Commentary Posted: 08 Mar 2011 06:19 AM PST

OPEC have no plans for extraordinary meeting Posted: 08 Mar 2011 06:02 AM PST They are talking about supplementing supply for lack of Libya production. Oil is hanging around unchanged.

Gold tests support. Watching closely. Posted: 08 Mar 2011 05:42 AM PST Gold is mixed today, having moved lower early, higher in London and tries to move back lower in early NY trade. The chart above shows the longer term trend from Feb 14th. There have been two moves below the trendline - each rejected (see yellow areas).  Despite the breaks below the trendline, the market seemed to respect the line as a “borderline” they could trade against - i.e. above is bullish, below is bearish.  I like those clues the market gives.  They help define risk and keep risk to a minimum. The chart below zooms in and shows that the price is down testing this trendline today at the 1430.98 level. A break below that line has the 100 hour MA at the 1429.29 level.  Note that the 100 hour MA line is also going sideways (blue line in the chart below). This suggests the market is more balanced between buyers and sellers currently and could also signal a move away can be anticipated. These two  levels should be important levels for Gold today. A break to the downside of each and there should be increased selling pressure.  Holding the level, and the bulls remain in charge. So far the bulls remain in control.  Watch closely.

Canada Housing Starts comes in stronger at 181.9 Posted: 08 Mar 2011 05:17 AM PST The expectations was for a more modest rise to 174.0 from 170.4.  Yesterday Building Permits fell more than expected (by -5.1%).  That number was for January. This one is for February. The USDCAD made an about face move lower after the data

ECB/Buba Weber says inflation may be worse but EURUSD falls Posted: 08 Mar 2011 05:02 AM PST ECB should mull exiting full allotment in next few months Doesn’t want to correct market expectations for ECB rates (i.e., ECB will raise rates) Has started Interest rate normalization Improving markets require exit to be considered Despite the rise in Greece bond yields to the highest level ever, the plan to raise rates does not deter the hawkish comments for ECB officials.  Nevertheless, the EURSUSD has not moved higher on his hawkish comments and this may indicate that the focus may be shifting for the EURUSD. There is always the possibility that the “story” could be higher rates, lower growth, and lower inflation eventually.  Meanwhile debt of the weak sister becomes a negative for the EURUSD as Greece yields move to the highest level since the EU  The risk for shorts remains the 1.3923 area.  The next target to get through the 1.3888 (see chart below).  The next level after 1.3888 is the 1.3862 where the 200 hour MA is found (green line in the chart below).

The NY Opening Forex Commentary/Webinar today at 4PM Posted: 08 Mar 2011 04:58 AM PST

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.8.2011 Posted: 08 Mar 2011 04:30 AM PST Good Morning: Continued sovereign debt concerns pushed the single currency lower in overnight trading.  Bonds from the most indebted countries in the EU declined versus their German counterparts.  The markets are nervous that the members of the EU will not agree to a comprehensive debt crisis solution anytime soon.  Leaders from the region are expected to meet again later this month to try and tackle the debt issues. Oil traded lower, and the Swiss Franc lost some ground, as investors demand for the currency as a safe have waned. World equity markets rose-and US Futures are higher at this time. Oil:$105.32                                                                       Gold:$1433.10 Today’s Data: 10 AM   IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism       exp: 51.8                           prior: 50.9

Greek 10 year yield climbs to highest since EURO start Posted: 08 Mar 2011 04:30 AM PST THe Greek 10 year bond yield has hit its highest level since the EU started and the focus shifts from dollar weakness to EURUSD weakness/problems.  The price has moved below the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) and is targeting the next support at the 1.3888 level. This is the midpoint of the March trading range. Topside resistance now comes in at 1.3923 level and against the 100 hour MA which is currently at the 1.3935 level.

German Factiory Orders for January up 2.9% Posted: 08 Mar 2011 03:03 AM PST German Factory Orders for January were up 2.9% from prior month beating the 2.6% estimate. Eur/Usd seen a modest bump to 1.3930 upon release. The pair currently trades at 1.3922.

Eur/Usd trading at 100 hour m/a Posted: 08 Mar 2011 12:41 AM PST Eur/Usd is trading at its 100 hour m/a of 1.3927. A break below should bring the pair down to 1.3880, a level of previous hourly highs. If the pair holds a run back to 1.3960-70 is likely.

French Trade Deficit 5.89B, worse than the forecasted 5.0B Posted: 08 Mar 2011 12:01 AM PST Eur/Usd dropped to a new session low of 1.3938 on news.

Swiss unemployment rate drops to 3.4%, as expected Posted: 07 Mar 2011 10:50 PM PST Swiss unemployment rate came in at 3.4%, an expected drop from last month’s 3.5%. Over the last 30 minutes of trading Usd/Chf has risen 50 points to trade at .9315. Eur/Chf also is trading firmer, currently at 1.3013.

3-8 Economic Calendar Posted: 07 Mar 2011 08:50 PM PST

Forex Basics March 7th 2011 rebroadcast Posted: 07 Mar 2011 01:55 PM PST Forex Basics TODAY at 4pm est with special guest trainer Shawn Powell. Watch the show now This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD watching the 38.2% (other support) of the move up for the day
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March7.2011
• USDCAD inches higher on weaker Canada Building Permits
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary/The Week Ahead Webinar at 9:30 AM
• Canada Building Permits Data due at 8:30AM
• Trichet due to speak at the BIS at 7 am (eastern).
• EUR/USD Testing Channel Resistance
• Euro-zone Sentix Investor Confidence 17.1; better than expected.
• Coming up at 4:30…
• Greek Fin. Minister Says Moody’s Cut is “Completely Unjustified”.
• Greece downgraded by Moody’s to B1 from Ba1; negative outlook.
• Japan’s Leading Indicators
• 3-7 Economic Calendar

EURUSD watching the 38.2% (other support) of the move up for the day Posted: 07 Mar 2011 05:47 AM PST The EURUSD is down testing intraday support at the 1.4000/04 level. The level corresponds with the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart and the 38.2% of the low to high trading range for the day. The EURUSD moved higher today on expectations of ECB will raise interest rate before the Fed. The move higher was despite bad news in the form of a downgrade by Moody’s of Greece debt from Ba1 to B1 (3 level decline). A break below the 1.4000 level will likely lead to further selling pressure with a move toward 1.3984 as a next potential target (see chart below) and 1.3958 (38.2% of the move up from the Trichet rally higher on Thursday).

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March7.2011 Posted: 07 Mar 2011 05:39 AM PST Good Morning: Despite another downgrade of Greece by Moody’s-the EUR/USD pushed through the 1.40 level in overnight trading.  The downgrade by Moody’s lowered the rating by 3 notches, and assigned a negative outlook for the country. The markets will look to see the details of Mr. Trichet’s press conference today regarding the ECB’s intent on monetary policy and interest rates. With higher interest rates on the horizon-the Euro has risen 9% versus the USD this year-the Euro seems to be resilient against all the negative sovereign debt problems facing the Euro Zone.  Some of the Euro’s strength has come on the heels of the USD, and that Fed Chairman Bernanle shows no sign of increasing interest rates anytime soon. Oil continued to rise, and hit a 29 month high as fighting in Libya intensifies.  Gold also rallied as the political uncertainty in the Middle East continues. Asian equity markets were mixed, while European equity markets rose-and US Futures are higher at this time too. Oil:$106.52                                                        Gold:$1442.60  NO MAJOR DATA DUE OUT TODAY. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

USDCAD inches higher on weaker Canada Building Permits Posted: 07 Mar 2011 05:38 AM PST The Canada Building Permits came in at -5.1%. Residential Permits came in at -0.9% and Non Residential Permits fell -13.3%. The USDCAD has inched higher on the weaker data. Higher oil prices due to the Mideast tension has kept the Canadian dollar supported (USDCAD down). The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at the 0.9712. The 38.2% of the move down today comes in at the level as well. A move above this level is therefore needed to give intraday bulls confirmation that a low is in place. The next target would be the 0.9719.

The NY Opening Forex Commentary/The Week Ahead Webinar at 9:30 AM Posted: 07 Mar 2011 05:00 AM PST

Canada Building Permits Data due at 8:30AM Posted: 07 Mar 2011 04:34 AM PST

Trichet due to speak at the BIS at 7 am (eastern). Posted: 07 Mar 2011 03:10 AM PST

EUR/USD Testing Channel Resistance Posted: 07 Mar 2011 02:17 AM PST Moody’s downgraded Greece earlier from B1 to Ba1; the markets initial knee-jerk reaction was to sell the pair 20 points lower, but a rebound occurred and we are now trading off session highs around 1.4025. With Greece still facing some remaining uncertainties the downgrade may not have come as a surprise. Currently, the EUR/USD is testing channel resistance which began back on February 21st; more than one consecutive close above this line may be a bullish signal for the pair in which case further buying may occur. From a daily perspective the next target higher, should the gains continue, is 1.40799; an old high/resistance level from October.

Euro-zone Sentix Investor Confidence 17.1; better than expected. Posted: 07 Mar 2011 01:39 AM PST

Coming up at 4:30… Posted: 07 Mar 2011 01:12 AM PST

Greek Fin. Minister Says Moody’s Cut is “Completely Unjustified”. Posted: 07 Mar 2011 01:10 AM PST

Greece downgraded by Moody’s to B1 from Ba1; negative outlook. Posted: 06 Mar 2011 11:40 PM PST Greece measures subject to implementation risks. Greece faces difficulties with revenue collection. Sees risk of restructuring of exiting Greece debt. Lack of certainty over Greece support after 2013. Ceiling for bonds and deposits was unaffected. Greek progress on income tax is slow to improve. Center of Greek scenario is that bondholders won’t bear losses. Greece liquid support, default not mutually exclusive. Could cut Greece again if government commitment is weakened.

Japan’s Leading Indicators Posted: 06 Mar 2011 09:17 PM PST Japan’s Leading Indicators came in at 101.9%, weaker than the 102.4% expected. Usd/Jpy currently trades at 82.25. up about 5 points since release.

3-7 Economic Calendar Posted: 06 Mar 2011 08:50 PM PST

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• FXDD Week Ahead Monday March 7th 2011
• The Week Ahead from FXDD
• GBPUSD in between support and resistance
• USDJPY below 100 day MA at 82.56. London/Europe looks to exit
• EURUSD tests intraday support. Is the market still short?

FXDD Week Ahead Monday March 7th 2011 Posted: 04 Mar 2011 01:38 PM PST Start the trading week off right with Greg Michalowski and Bill Lawless for the FXDD Week Ahead Monday March 7th 2011 at 9:30am est.Click here to reserve your seat

The Week Ahead from FXDD Posted: 04 Mar 2011 01:03 PM PST CLICK HERE FOR “THE WEEK AHEAD FROM FXDD”

GBPUSD in between support and resistance Posted: 04 Mar 2011 08:08 AM PST The GBPUSD is another pair which is having difficulty with a bias today.  The pair has been up and down a number of times already but some levels are being established. For one, on the topside the 1.6297/04  level has found selling interest. On the downside, the four hourly bar lows at 1.6233 provide the support. In between is the 100 hour MA which stands at 1.6278 and the 1.6254 level which has been a support and resistance level for the week.  With the price testing the 1.6254 level now, a break below should open the door for a move to the key support at 1.6233.

USDJPY below 100 day MA at 82.56. London/Europe looks to exit Posted: 04 Mar 2011 07:52 AM PST The 100 day MA comes in at 82.56. THis was trendline support from earlier today. The 38.2% of the move down from from the high today to the new low at 82.21 comes in at the 82.52 (100 bar MA on the 5  minute chart is also at the level - blue line in chart below).  With the price back above the initial low for the day at the 82.28 level, the market seems to have found a bottom. The question is does it have the “will” to push much higher?  London and EUROPE close/squaring will likely keep the market choppy. How the market reacts next week, will be dependent on the technicals with the 82.56 level (100 day MA) likely to be the key level.  The fundamentals are simply too mixed (in my mind at least).

EURUSD tests intraday support. Is the market still short? Posted: 04 Mar 2011 07:24 AM PST The EURUSD tried above the 1.4000 level but has come off as the NY morning progresses. The pair is testing th 38.2% of the sharp move higher today at the 1.3981 level. A move below the level will likely signal the market is more neutral now. However, it does seem the market is finding some buyers at/near the level. If the market is still short, I would expect buyers to come in at this level to square up before the weekend. For the shorts it is better than 1.4000 plus. They may not be happy. They may prefer a move back down toward 1.3965, but the EURUSD continues to have a bid on any dips. Fighting a trend is not a fight I like to get into. Honestly, the market has me a bit confusing for me today. If I were to focus on the fundamentals, I would argue for a stronger dollar on the back of the better than expected employment report. However, the market has to wrestle with the tension in Libya and the ECB seems to be in the back of traders minds (tightening next month more likely). In addition, shorts get NO satisfaction.  So the technical picture to the downside never materialized and shorts have been forced to cover. This is often the story of a trending market and the EURUSD did have the weeks low on Monday, 3 hours from the opening of trading.  Closing the week near the high is a possibility and would complete the fairly modest but steady climb higher (from 1.3710 to 1.4007)

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