Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Geithner speaking about the debt limit
• AUDUSD tests first target
• Learn to Trade: FXDDAuto Automated Forex Trading
• March ISM Manufacturing Falls to 57.3
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary for April 5th 2011
• ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Data Due at 10AM
• GBPUSD bull flag being broken. Another leg higher?
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.5.2011
• EURUSD approaches intraday technical level
• Gold: Watching 100 hour MA today
• The FXDD Morning Call for April 5th 2011
• China raises lending rates (and deposits) by 25 basis points
• Eurozone Retail Sales for February
• Euro-zone Retail Sales in 5 minutes…
• EUR/GBP falls following PMI release

Geithner speaking about the debt limit Posted: 05 Apr 2011 07:39 AM PDT The Office of Management and Budget is preparing for a shutdown Inconceivable congress would not raise the debt limit Failure to raise debt ceiling would be catastrophic Recovery can be undermined without budget fix Foundation of global system could be shaken

AUDUSD tests first target Posted: 05 Apr 2011 07:33 AM PDT The AUDUSD held the 200 hour MA and is now at the first target, the 100 hour MA. The level comes in at the 1.0344 level. Above the level is the underside of the trendline at the 1.0357 level. Traders who are long may lighten up some of there position at this level, with stops on a move above the 1.0357 level. The AUDUSD lost some ground today on the back of less hawkish comments from the RBA following their interest rate decision (no change). Also, the Trade balance showed a surprise deficit. Admittedly,the floods in the Queensland region likely contributed to the deficit.  Nevertheless,the market was shocked by the news.   China looking to slow growth also should be a slight negative to AUD as they are a big exporter of industrial metals.

Learn to Trade: FXDDAuto Automated Forex Trading Posted: 05 Apr 2011 07:10 AM PDT We'd like to invite you to join Oz Golan, Director of Institutional Sales at Tradency and Shawn Powell for a free, interactive webinar highlighting the features and functionalities of FXDD Auto. This is your opportunity to learn how to employ the FXDD Auto tools and strategies from a Tradency expert, as well as ask questions. >> Register now to reserve your seat The live event will take place online Thursday, April 7th at 12:00pm EST. With FXDD Auto, you can evaluate over 1,500 trading strategies developed by Forex traders and create personalized portfolio of those you wish to follow. Once you have created your portfolio, FXDD Auto will automatically execute the trades for your selected strategies.>> Register now to reserve your seat If you miss the live event, FXDD will rebroadcast the training at http://www.fxdd.com/live

March ISM Manufacturing Falls to 57.3 Posted: 05 Apr 2011 07:05 AM PDT ISM Manufacturing Index:   Survey: 59.5   Actual: 57.3  Prior: 59.7   Mar vs. Feb 2011 Business Activity: 59.7 vs 66.9 Prices Paid: 72.1 vs 73.3 New Orders: 64.1 vs 64.4 Backlog of Orders: 56.0 vs 52.0 Supplier Deliveries: 51.5 vs 52.0 Inventory Change: 55.5 vs 55.5 Inventory Sentiment: 67.0 vs 57.5 Employment: 53.7 vs 55.6

The NY Morning Forex Commentary for April 5th 2011 Posted: 05 Apr 2011 07:03 AM PDT

ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Data Due at 10AM Posted: 05 Apr 2011 06:13 AM PDT

GBPUSD bull flag being broken. Another leg higher? Posted: 05 Apr 2011 05:39 AM PDT The GBPUSD bull flag is being broken and that means higher prices.  The high for the day has been broken and the next target is to move above the upper trendline at the 1.6253 level. A move above this level will be an other bullish indication for the pair (see hourly chart below)

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.5.2011 Posted: 05 Apr 2011 05:36 AM PDT Good Morning: The Euro lost steam overnight after Moody’s downgraded Portugal’s credit rating for the 2nd time in 3 weeks, as speculation that Portugal will need to seek a European bailout.  Fitch Ratings also downgraded Portugal on April 1st to BBB-, the lowest investment grade, and kept the country on “negative watch”.  “Moody’s rating action was driven primarily by increased political, budgetary and economic uncertainty”.  With Portugal’s borrowing costs surging, markets are anticipating that they will have to take the same road as Greece and Ireland, and seek a bailout. China’s central bank rose thier lending and deposit rates by 25 basis points to control inflation in the world fastest growing economy. This is the 4th time since October 2010 that the Chinese Central Bank has raised prices.  World equity markets were lower-as are US Futures at thhis time. Oil:$108.21                                                       Gold:$1436.50 TIME FOR EST. PRIOR 10:00A.M. ISM NON MANUF.COMPOSITE MAR. 60.O 59.7O 2:00P.M. MINUTES OF FOMC MEETING       HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

EURUSD approaches intraday technical level Posted: 05 Apr 2011 05:32 AM PDT For most of the trading day, the EURUSD has been able to stay below the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (blue line in the chart above).  In early NY trade, the price is approaching it and the intraday trendline. This moving average has found sellers  all day. Will it - conbined with the trendline - continue to find the sellers? A move above this technical level should see buyers with the test of the 38.% at 1.4194 and the 200 bar MA at the 1.4196 level being the next target level.

Gold: Watching 100 hour MA today Posted: 05 Apr 2011 05:21 AM PDT The 100 hour MA held support at the 1430.80 area. That level will be watched today as support on the downside. If the price moves below the level the 50% at 1428.82 and the 200 hour MA come in at the 1428 level. So there is a number of support levels to get through. However, that could ignite increased selling liquidation on breaks. Be aware. Until there, the pairs ability to maintain support against the 100 hour MA keeps the bulls in charge with a ceiling in the 1438.50-1439.50 area. A break above this area should lead to further upside momentum. Gold has been supported near the highs but has had a lot of up and down activity. The worlds investors have not holding the positions in gold as a safe haven play - just in case.

The FXDD Morning Call for April 5th 2011 Posted: 05 Apr 2011 04:58 AM PDT The FXDD Morning Call for April 5th is available for viewing. A technical look at the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF AUDUSD, and EURGBP are covered today are outlined along with information on the major market moving news.

China raises lending rates (and deposits) by 25 basis points Posted: 05 Apr 2011 03:20 AM PDT

Eurozone Retail Sales for February Posted: 05 Apr 2011 02:01 AM PDT E/Z Retail Sales m/m came in at -0.1%, weaker than the 0.1% expected and prior reading of 0.1%. Eur/Usd came off about 10 points just prior to release of number and currently resides at 1.4175.

Euro-zone Retail Sales in 5 minutes… Posted: 05 Apr 2011 01:55 AM PDT

EUR/GBP falls following PMI release Posted: 05 Apr 2011 01:52 AM PDT Seen below, EUR/GBP collapsed through trendline support, which is had been receiving since February 18th, following the better than expected PMI reading. It additionally sold off through the 50.0% line and tested the 61.8% fibo line on the move from the low on March 23rd to the high on the 31st. If the selling continues, the next level lower is .87223: highs from March 16th and 27th. In the case of a rebound we look back towards .87571.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Week Ahead in Trading Rebroadcast
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.4.2011
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary for April 4th
• Eurozone PPI for February
• USD/CAD testing channel support
• Euro-zone PPI in less than 10 minutes….
• Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence
• U.K. construction PMI slightly better at 56.4; sterling makes slight gains on the release.
• Today’s first bit of data out at 4:30
• Former Japanese currency official Sakakibara sees weaker yen in coming months
• 4-4 Economic Calender

Week Ahead in Trading Rebroadcast Posted: 04 Apr 2011 06:25 AM PDT Week Ahead in Trading with Bill Lawless and Greg Michalowski - Watch the Rebroadcast now (video pending)

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.4.2011 Posted: 04 Apr 2011 05:28 AM PDT Good Morning: A fairly lackluster start to the week-with no real changes in the majors, and crosses showing very little real net change. Friday’s good US employment data may begin to prompt the FED to remove some of the “accommodating bias” rhetoric in their statements-but if we see a better employment  data, along with true growth-the FOMC will need to begin to change it’s course of monetary action  sooner than later. With the Japanese economy paralyzed from man made and natural disasters,  the Japanese government will have no choice but to continue it’s ultra accommodating monetary policy for the foreseeable future. Commodities rose across the board, as signs that economic growth is gaining traction.  Equity markets are also stronger-as some $20 billion in new  corporate takeover activity helps keep these markets firm for the time being.  With no major economic events on today’s calender-and the start of the FOMC meeting tomorrow-we do not expect any earth shattering comments from US officials today. Oil:$108.35                                                         Gold:$1438.30 No Major Data Today HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK |

The NY Opening Forex Commentary for April 4th Posted: 04 Apr 2011 05:26 AM PDT The Week Ahead with Greg Michalowski and Bill Lawless at 9:30 AM. To register go to: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/973157065

Eurozone PPI for February Posted: 04 Apr 2011 02:02 AM PDT Eurozone PPI m/m came in at 0.8%, stronger than the 0.9% expected. The prior month’s reading of 1.5% was revised down to 1.3%. Eur/Usd is trading at 1.4198, a new session low.

USD/CAD testing channel support Posted: 04 Apr 2011 01:59 AM PDT Since testing resistance on March 16th and 17th, the USD/CAD pair has traded continually lower and is now testing support at .96148 after closing below the 0.0% line at .96663. A close below this support line could be a bearish signal for further selling to occur. In the case of a turn-a-round, the first target back to the upside is .96663.

Euro-zone PPI in less than 10 minutes…. Posted: 04 Apr 2011 01:51 AM PDT

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Posted: 04 Apr 2011 01:37 AM PDT Sentix Investor Confidence came in at 14.2, weaker than the 16.1 expected and prior reading of 17.1, According to the Sentix Institute the decline in confidence is due in part to surging oil prices, which boosted inflationand prompted the ECB to signal an interest rate increase. Eur/Usd holds steady at 1.4220.

U.K. construction PMI slightly better at 56.4; sterling makes slight gains on the release. Posted: 04 Apr 2011 01:32 AM PDT Additionally, housing equity withdrawals were worse: -7.0B

Today’s first bit of data out at 4:30 Posted: 04 Apr 2011 01:19 AM PDT

Former Japanese currency official Sakakibara sees weaker yen in coming months Posted: 03 Apr 2011 08:46 PM PDT Sakakibara says the nuclear crisis is likely to hurt yen, sees Usd/Jpy above 90.00 in coming months. Usd/Jpy currently trades at 84.25.

4-4 Economic Calender Posted: 03 Apr 2011 08:45 PM PDT

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• The Week Ahead from FXDD (PDF Report)
• EURUSD moves closer to key resistance at 1.4280
• Portugal’s Rating Cut to BBB-
• EURUSD moves to other extreme
• Feds Hoenig says rates should rise in late summer
• Fed’s Dudley on the Wires
• EURUSD squeezes higher to 100 and 200 hour MA area

The Week Ahead from FXDD (PDF Report) Posted: 01 Apr 2011 01:10 PM PDT To access PDF Report CLICK HERE

EURUSD moves closer to key resistance at 1.4280 Posted: 01 Apr 2011 11:38 AM PDT The EURUSD has made new highs for the week and the shorts and new buying push the market higher. The key resistat at the 1.4280 level is getting closer. The level corresponds with the high from November 2010 (at 1.4281), the upper trendline and the downward trendline from the July 2008 high (connecting to the November 2009 high).   The three lines come in near the area. I would expect good profit taking selling as the price moves closer and closer. Next week the ECB will tighten credit conditions.  The expectations is a 25 basis point increase but the possibility exists for 50 basis points if the central bank wants to make a statement.  The decision wll come on Thursday (along with the BOE interest rate decision) at 7:45 AM. Jean Claude Trichet will give his customary press briefing at 8:30 AM ET.

Portugal’s Rating Cut to BBB- Posted: 01 Apr 2011 09:48 AM PDT Portugal’s Rating Cut to BBB- by Fitch, may be cut to junk.

EURUSD moves to other extreme Posted: 01 Apr 2011 09:10 AM PDT The EURUSD has moved to the other extreme outlined in the Opening Forex Call. The area of resistance was at the 1.4202, 1.4211 and 1.4220 levels. Each represented horizontal resistance or Remembered Lines. This area should find sellers in the rollercoaster day.

Feds Hoenig says rates should rise in late summer Posted: 01 Apr 2011 09:01 AM PDT Says any bank in top 4 or 5 are too big to fail Monetary policy highly stimulative Need to move rates up gradually QE2 was unneccesary by the Fed Hoenig is a hawk and his comments are reflective.

Fed’s Dudley on the Wires Posted: 01 Apr 2011 08:06 AM PDT Says: Recovery ‘looks to be better’ than six months ago Recovery ‘not as good’ as a month ago 200,000 jobs per month ‘less than i would like’ Payroll numbers were ‘missing ingredient’ in recovery ‘Dont want to overstate how far we’ve come’ Commodity prices virtually nothing do with monetary policy Inflation expectations stable Fed has ability to exit when time comes Too soon to say on possible exit QE2 doesn’t impair exit ability Recovery ‘tenous’ with high unemployment No reason to pull back from monetary stimulus ‘Would be surprised if Fed doesn’t complete full QE2 Market expects full $600 billion program He would be surprised if full QE2 not finished FOMC will do timely, effective exit

EURUSD squeezes higher to 100 and 200 hour MA area Posted: 01 Apr 2011 07:35 AM PDT Anything can happen now with a break above the 200 hour MA.  1.4116 is now support as the trend move down today loses some of its moxie….

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• ECBs Bini Smaghi says rating agencies may be behind the curve
• Greg Michalowski just added to London Traders Expo
• Feds Lacker on CNBC. Key comments.
• EURUSD corrects after ISM data
• Construction Spending Drops, ISM Data Stays Put
• GBPUSD tests congestion target at 1.5956 to 1.5972
• Special FXDDAuto Webinar Thursday April 7th 12pm
• Weekly Wrap Up with Greg and Shawn TODAY at 12:30pm. Reserve your seat now
• EURUSD finding sellers against the 1.4116-20 area
• US ISM Data & Construction Spending Due at 10AM
• USDCHF soars on flight out of safety
• Keith Hall, (Labor Department Commissioner) comments on the Employment report
• USDJPY moves to target resistance at 84.40-52 area and comes off
• EURUSD below 100 hour MA at 1.4120. Test support at underside of trendline
• US Nonfarm Payrolls Rise, Unemployment Falls Lower to 8.8%

ECBs Bini Smaghi says rating agencies may be behind the curve Posted: 01 Apr 2011 07:17 AM PDT Stress test shows Ireland resolve Markets need to be convinced on Portugal The EURUSD moves lower on the quote after testing the post employment report highs.  Nevertheless the move above the 38.2% of the intraday move muddies the water a bit.  Bias is down but watching the 1.4100 level. A move back above the level should suggest a more balanced market now. WIth 1.4121 the next key upside target to stay below (the level is the 100 hour MA level now)

Greg Michalowski just added to London Traders Expo Posted: 01 Apr 2011 07:17 AM PDT Greg Michalowski has been added as a presenter at the London Traders Expo. The event runs April 8th and 9th. Here is Greg’s speaking schedule. Technical strategies 04/08/11 11:45 am - 12:30 pm Forex trading tools 04/09/11 11:30 am - 12:15 pm Global opportunities in the 2011 currency markets 04/09/11 2:30 pm - 3:15 pm

Feds Lacker on CNBC. Key comments. Posted: 01 Apr 2011 07:10 AM PDT Good report Fed to keep eye on inflation Wouldnt surprise if the Fed has to act before the end of the year Stop QE2, not reinvest MBS Proceeds and look to sell assets and raise interest rates Reconsider withdrawing QE 2 early Don’t think the Fed is behind the curve. Next 9 months critical Japan impact should be transitory Does not think housing should lead to a double dip risk Housing flat over the next year. Housing will no contribute to growth because of overhang “Get out as quickly as we got in” with regard to asset sales and the Fed’s exit from stimulus.

EURUSD corrects after ISM data Posted: 01 Apr 2011 07:07 AM PDT The ISM data was ok, but some of the components perhaps were not as the market hoped. New Orders and Backlog orders fall. ================================== Manufacturing index     61.2 vs 61.4 Prices paid             85.0  vs 82.0 Production              69.0 vs 66.3 New orders              63.3 vs 68.0 Backlog of orders       52.5 vs 59.0 Supplier deliveries     63.1 vs 59.4 Inventories             47.4 vs  48.8 Customer inventories    39.5 vs 40.0 Employment              63.0 vs 64.5 New export orders       56.0 vs 62.5 Imports                 56.5 vs 55.0

Construction Spending Drops, ISM Data Stays Put Posted: 01 Apr 2011 07:02 AM PDT Construction Spending MoM:  Survey: -0.2%    Actual:  -1.4%    Prior:  -0.7%  Revised:  -% ISM Manufacturing:   Survey: 61.1  Actual:  61.2   Prior:  61.4 Mar vs. Feb Prices Paid: 85.0 vs 82.0 Production:  69.0 vs 66.3 New Orders: 63.3 vs68.0  Backlog of Orders:  52.5 vs 59.0 Supplier Deliveries:  63.1 vs 59.4 Inventory Change:  47.4 vs 48.8 Employment: 63.0 vs 64.5 ISM Prices Paid:   Survey: 82.9  Actual: 85.0   Prior:  82.0 Prices paid highest since july 2008

GBPUSD tests congestion target at 1.5956 to 1.5972 Posted: 01 Apr 2011 06:54 AM PDT The GBPUSD is down testing the next congestion target at the 1.5956-72 area. The level is trendline support on the daily chart and has been a support area in Feb and March as well. On the hourly chart below the level has been a remember line over the last week or so of trading (see chart below).  A break below, opens the door for further selling pressure.

Special FXDDAuto Webinar Thursday April 7th 12pm Posted: 01 Apr 2011 06:45 AM PDT We'd like to invite you to join Oz Golan, Director of Institutional Sales at Tradency and FXDD's Shawn Powell for a free, interactive webinar highlighting the features and functionalities of FXDD Auto. This is your opportunity to learn how to employ the FXDD Auto tools and strategies from a Tradency expert, as well as ask questions. >> Register now to reserve your seat The live event will take place online Thursday, April 7th at 12:00pm EDT. With FXDDAuto, you can evaluate over 1,500 trading strategies developed by Forex traders and create personalized portfolio of those you wish to follow. Once you have created your portfolio, FXDD Auto will automatically execute the trades for your selected strategies.>> Register now to reserve your seat

Weekly Wrap Up with Greg and Shawn TODAY at 12:30pm. Reserve your seat now Posted: 01 Apr 2011 06:39 AM PDT Weekly Wrap Up with Greg and Shawn TODAY at 12:30pm. There will be a lot to talk about with the current market conditions in the Euro and other majors. - Reserve your seat now.

EURUSD finding sellers against the 1.4116-20 area Posted: 01 Apr 2011 06:37 AM PDT As per the PRIOR POST, the market has stalled and corrected to the target area at 1.4116-20 area. The 1.4116 level is the 38.2% of the last intraday fall to the downside. The 1.4120 level is the 100 hour MA.  Staying below keeps the bears in charge and the dip buyer worried. Moving above, muddies the water for the day and the trend a bit.

US ISM Data & Construction Spending Due at 10AM Posted: 01 Apr 2011 06:19 AM PDT

USDCHF soars on flight out of safety Posted: 01 Apr 2011 06:14 AM PDT The better than expected US job report has continued to lead to a move out of the safe haven Swiss Franc (higher USDCHF).  The currency has been the haven for funds with the global economic uncertainty as well as the tension and devastation coming from the Middle East and Japan. With arguably a more favorable environment (or at least all the bad is out) and the better jobs report today, the door remains open for the unwinding of the safe haven play and a higher USDCHF. On the daily chart the price is now above the 38.2% retracement level at the 0.9243 level. Staying above this level targets the 50% at the 0.9345 level. There is also channel resistance at the level. This makes the level an attractive target for the bulls. Looking at the hourly chart the price is back in the channel from the March 23rd to March 30th period. The trendline comes in at the 0.9282 level.  There is trendline resistance above at the 0.9306 level and this is the next closest target to watch for upside confirmation.  There should be some intraday profit taking sellers against the level.  If the price is broken, look for the 0.9345 level to come into focus and it could be sooner rather than later. Support on the downside now comes in at the 0.9273-82. The 0.9273 level was the high from March 30th. The 0.9283 is the channel trendline.  Looking at the 5 minute chart, watch larger corrections that approach the 38.2% of the last move higher.  That level comes in at 0.9268 currently.

Keith Hall, (Labor Department Commissioner) comments on the Employment report Posted: 01 Apr 2011 06:08 AM PDT Keith Hall, Labor Department commissioner, comments on the stronger than expected US jobs report. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/jec.pdf Press release from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

USDJPY moves to target resistance at 84.40-52 area and comes off Posted: 01 Apr 2011 05:56 AM PDT The USDJPY has continued the move higher. It is now comfortably above the 200 day MA (green line the the chart above).  The pair has found some sellers against the 82.40-52 area. This was a ceiling area back in November/December 2010. On a correction off the high (ie a move down intraday), watch the 84.10 for support. This is the 38.2% of the last leg up on the intraday chart (see chart below)

EURUSD below 100 hour MA at 1.4120. Test support at underside of trendline Posted: 01 Apr 2011 05:40 AM PDT The better US jobs data has the EURUSD heading lower as the market debates the Feds next move. THe price has moved through the 100 hour MA at the 1.4120 level and has tested the underside of the channel trendline (the next target for the pair - see chart above).   Resistance now at 1.4120. a break of the 1.4092 should solicit more selling pressure.  1.4084 is another downside target (horizontal line in chart above), then 1.4072 which is the upward sloping trendline. On corrections watch the 38.2% retracement. That level currently comes at 1.4116 with the low at 1.4088. This along with the 100 hour MA at 1.4120 currently is the topside resistance I would expect the sellers to defend.

US Nonfarm Payrolls Rise, Unemployment Falls Lower to 8.8% Posted: 01 Apr 2011 05:32 AM PDT Change in Nonfarm Payrolls:         Survey:  190K     Actual:  216K    Prior:  192K      Revision: K Change in Private Payrolls:         Survey: 206K    Actual: 230K     Prior:  222K     Revised: K Change in Manufacturing Payrolls:      Survey: 30K     Actual:  17K       Prior:  33K     Revised: 53K Unemployment Rate:     Survey:  8.9%     Actual: 8.8%     Prior:  8.9%       Avg Hourly Earning (MoM) All Emp:    Survey:  0.2%     Actual: 0.0%      Prior:  0.0%          Avg Hourly Earning (YoY) All Emp:    Survey:  1.9%      Actual: 1.7%      Prior:  1.7%       Avg Weekly Hours All Employees:    Survey:  34.3      Actual:  34.3        Prior:  34.2

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