Tuesday, September 6, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

EURUSD looks to test the 1.4096 level.

Posted: 06 Sep 2011 07:16 AM PDT

The US ISM non Manfacturing came is stronger at 53.3  vs 51.0 expectations. It has helped move the EURUSD on some risk taking.  The rally, however has resistance at the close from yesterday at the 1.4096 level which is the close from yesterday and the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart.

ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Rises

Posted: 06 Sep 2011 07:01 AM PDT

ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite:   Survey: 51.0   Actual: 53.3    Prior: 52.7

August vs July 2011
Prices Paid: 64.2 vs 56.6
New Orders:  52.8 vs 51.7
Backlog of Orders:  47.5 vs 44.0  
Supplier Deliveries:  53.0 vs 50.5
Inventory Change: 53.5 vs 56.5
Employment: 51.6 vs 52.5

Italy government to call confidence vote on their austerity package

Posted: 06 Sep 2011 06:51 AM PDT

Gold back up at $1900 on safe haven flows.

Posted: 06 Sep 2011 06:44 AM PDT

With countries fighting for “Who has the weakest currency”, the SNB saying “no more safe haven flows for the CHF”, stocks downs, oil down, that leaves Gold and Cash as kings.  Gold has moved above the $1900 an ounce and looks toward the high from last week at the 1920.72 level.

EURUSD moves toward the 200 day MA at 1.4013

Posted: 06 Sep 2011 06:21 AM PDT

The EURUSD has been moving in a volatile fashion as it is being pushed and pulled from EURCHF buying on one hand and issues in the EU (Greece/Italy) on the other hand. 

The pair is now down on the day now with the price below the 1.4096 level.  Staying below keeps the pair on the defensive.  The earlier low for the day was also breached below the 1.4038 level.  but is now back above the key level.   This level will now be eyed on the downside for intraday traders. 

If the price is able to move back above yesterdays close look for a quick test of the 1.4123 level where the 38.2% of the days range and the 100 bar MA is found.

On the downside, a break below the new low for the day has key support against the 200 day MA (see green line in the chart below). The 200 day MA comes in at  1.4013 today. The price of the EURUSD fell below this key level last on July 12th.  Before that, the EURUSD was last below the MA on January 12th.

 

Merkel adds Greece won’t get aid if Troika results are not positive

Posted: 06 Sep 2011 06:00 AM PDT

The EURUSD has been coming under pressure as the troubles in Greece take control in an already volatile market. The EURUSD has fallen below the previous lows for the day at 1.4038 but is now back above at 1.4058

Germanys Chancellor Merkel Said To Have Warned That Greece Leaving the Euro-Zone Could Trigger a Domino Effect

Posted: 06 Sep 2011 05:54 AM PDT

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.6.2011

Posted: 06 Sep 2011 05:23 AM PDT

Good Morning:

The FX markets were taken by surprise as the SNB (Swiss Nat’l Bank)-being very tired of the relentless rise in the CHF, intervened to weaken their own currency, and set a floor with the EUR/CHF at a rate of 1.20. With  continued concerns that the rising CHF will deteriorate the country’s export sector, the SNB moved aggressively in the FX markets.  This move prompted a short squeeze in all CHF pairings.
The CHF fell the most ever versus the Euro after the announcement.
The SNB has made comments that they are determined to enforce this setting, and is prepared to buy foreign currency to maintain this rate.

The ECB stated that the SNB acted alone, and did not collaborate with them regarding this announcement.  The ECB is seen buying Italian and Spanish Bonds today-does anyone really care-on a day like this-probably not.

Gold jumped over $1900/oz-while Oil dropped.

World equity markets are mostly lower-and US Dow futures are lower by over 200 points at this time.

We have ISM-PMI data at 10 Am today-markets will be watching this data for signs of stability in the service sector.

HAVE  A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

NY Morning Forex Commentary for September 5th 2011. It is all about the CHF

Posted: 06 Sep 2011 05:12 AM PDT

ISM Non-Manufacturing Data Due at 10AM

Posted: 06 Sep 2011 04:21 AM PDT

ECB says SNB took decision under its own responsibility.

Posted: 06 Sep 2011 03:34 AM PDT

SNB intervenes in currency markets. Sets minimum exchange rate target at 1.20 against the EUR.

Posted: 06 Sep 2011 01:50 AM PDT

  • If the economic outlook and deflationary risks require, the SNB will take further measures.
  • Will enforce minimum rate with utmost determination.
  • Set minimum exchange rate target at 1.20 per EUR.
  • Massive over valuation of CHF poses an acute threat to the Swiss economy and carries risk of deflation.

 

Swiss CPI -0.3% vs. -0.1% forecast.

Posted: 06 Sep 2011 12:19 AM PDT

French fin. minister says there is no risk of a recession in France.

Posted: 05 Sep 2011 11:24 PM PDT

Spanish fin. minister rules out a second bailout for Spain, says coming quarters wont be as good as forecasted.

Posted: 05 Sep 2011 11:22 PM PDT

Monday, September 5, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

GBPUSD breaks below the 200 day MA at the 1.6119 level and moves lower

Posted: 05 Sep 2011 07:10 AM PDT

The GBPUSD has fallen below the 200 day MA at the 1.6119 level for the 3rd time today (green line in the chart above).  On this move, the price moved fast to new lows. The market will be looking for corrections to be more contained then the previous two moves lower (see 5 minute chart below).  Staying below the 1.6090-94 level will keep the bears firmly in control. 

EURUSD moves below support at 1.4108.

Posted: 05 Sep 2011 06:41 AM PDT

 The EURUSD has been tracking below a channel reistance on the hourly chart above.  The line has kept the upside contained for the last 6 hours of trading.  Staying below the line – currently at 1.4129 – keeps the bears in charge in todays trading. 

ON the daily chart, the price is moving below support at the 1.4108 level. This is the 61.8% of the move up from the July to August range (see chart below). The move below this level next targets the 1.4008 level on the daily chart which is the 200 day MA (green line in the chart below). 

Before that level, look for trendline support at the 1.4088 level and below that the 1.4043 level (see chart below). These level correspond with channel trendlines on the hourly chart.

USDCHF bulls and bears fight it out in US holiday trading

Posted: 05 Sep 2011 06:16 AM PDT

The USDCHF rebounded sharply on Friday, despite the weak US employment report. The move to the upside found resistance against the 38.2 of the move down from last weeks high at the 0.79077 level (the high reached 0.7910 today) and a move back down has ensued today.  The low today tested another retracement level against the 38.2% of the move up from Fridays low (see chart below).  So although there are reasons to expect lower prices from the hourly chart, the 5 minute intraday chart is showing reluctance. 

On the 5 minute chart below, the intraday traders may also look to lean against the 100 bar MA (blue line in the chart below). Over the last few hours the price has been able to stay below this MA line and traders intent on moving the price back lower will look for the price to stay below this line.  If the bears can keep the price below this moving average (at 0.7868 currently), a test of the days lows can be expected. If the price moves back above the level, the holiday trade is likely to keep the pair range bound.

Eurozone retail sales (July) 0.2% vs. 0.0% expected.

Posted: 05 Sep 2011 02:19 AM PDT

UK services PMI (Aug) 51.1 vs. 54.0 expected.

Posted: 05 Sep 2011 01:29 AM PDT

GBP slightly weaker on the release.

Trichet on the wires….

Posted: 05 Sep 2011 01:21 AM PDT

  • Global crisis is hitting Europe particularly hard.
  • Imperative to have framework to oversee Euro zone budget.
  • Spirit of growth and stability pact has been weakened.
  • Crisis has revealed necessity for more Euro zone governance.
  • Consensus now exists on stiffening stability pact.
  • One day the European people will have a federal government.
  • In the longer term the Euro zone should have much tougher governance.
  • Financial sector should be decoupled from sovereign debt risk in the Eurozone.
  • Urges rigorous and full implementation of the July 21 agreement.
  • Sees structural barriers to growth in the Eurozone.

Eurozone services PMI (m/m) 51.5 as expected.

Posted: 05 Sep 2011 01:18 AM PDT

Spanish services PMI 45.2 vs. 46.5 expected, lowest since 2009.

Posted: 05 Sep 2011 12:32 AM PDT

World Bank Chief says if EU governments can’t deal with debt problems, it will put stress on banks.

Posted: 04 Sep 2011 11:44 PM PDT

  • Hard to see if China relying on exports, investments to drive growth in the next 10 years.
  • China needs to re-balance its economy and boost consumption.
  • US financial institutions have active role to rebuild capital bases.

9-5 Calender

Posted: 04 Sep 2011 09:30 PM PDT

Saturday, September 3, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

CSFB economist warns of rate cuts from ECB in the next two months

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 11:52 AM PDT

The ECB is expected to announce their rate decision on September 8th 2011.
The expectation is as a result of the stability of prices.

USDCHF steps up from support through resistance levels one by one.

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 08:35 AM PDT

Looking at the 5 minute chart above, the pair has been stepping from level to level as it corrects from the lows.

At step 1 the price moved above the channel trendline. That led to a test of point 2, the low from earlier in the trading day.  From there the price moved above the 100 bar MA (blue line) toward the 61.8% retracement level.  A correction down, held support against the 100 bar MA in the chart.  From there, the price has moved back higher and looks to breach the 61.8% on its way to point 5 at the 200 bar MA. 

Look for sellers against the 200 bar MA at the 1.6273 level with stops above. Typically, when the 100 and 200 bar moving average are far apart as they are in this chart, staying above the 100 bar MA is bullish but, there is a pause at the 200 bar MA.

GBPUSD defines and maintains its range

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 08:17 AM PDT

The 1.6167 area is downside support that has held on 3 separate occassions over the last 24 hours. On the topside the 38.2% of the move down at 1.6253 is also a low/high area over the last 3 days. 

In between is the traders preference as the week comes to a close. 

 

AUDUSD falls below trendline and 100 hour MA

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 07:49 AM PDT

The AUDUSD fell below trendline and 100 hour MA support at the 1.0692 and 1.0682 levels respectively. The price decline extended to the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the August 25th low at the 1.06298 (low reached 1.0634).   The price bounced higher, but stalled right at the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above).   The price is now in between the support and resistance.

Fighting for the bulls is that the economy in Australia is doing better on a relative basis.  The market has been worried about the possiblity of a rate cut, but that risk has started to lessen.  If there is QE3 this may also be supported of the “risk currency pairs” like the AUDUSD.

Fighting for the bears is if the global economy heads closer to a recession, the thought of lowering rates could take root again and depending on how slow the global economy gets, the fact that AUDUSD has been one of the strongest currencies, means it has room to fall to. 

The holding or the 100 hour MA on the rebound is the last test and therefore keeps the bears in charge for the day.  They will be looking for a break of the 1.0629 level (38.2%) for additional chance for satisfaction down to the 200 hour MA and 50% retracement at the 1.05888 level.  If the 38.2% cannot be breached, however, the pendulum swings the other way for the market traders.

 

Friday, September 2, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

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Posted: 02 Sep 2011 06:42 AM PDT

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The GBPUSD moves back lower as equities open and move lower

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 06:38 AM PDT

The GBPUSD has moved back lower as the stock market opens and moves sharply lower. The DJ is down 236 points. The S&P is down 26. Gold is up $48.

The pair tested the 38.2% of the recent move down after the number this morning and found sellers. The price is now in the channel that was broken in the London session. That level comes in at the 1.6190 level currently (see chart above). ON the hourly chart below the 1.6197 level is the midpoint of the move up from the July low to the August high. Intraday traders, looking for the trend to continue would love to see the price remain below these levels (1.6191 to 1.6197)

On the downside the next target is the 1.6168 area which was lows from yesterday. The low from earlier today came in at the 1.6171.   Markets remain volatile with the stock and commodity moves.  Be patient.

USDCHF squeezes above 38.2% of the days range

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 06:15 AM PDT

The USDCHF has squeezed sharply higher and the price has moved to and above the 38.2% of the days range at he 0.7803 level (see chart below) . This move has gotten the markets attention as the expectation would be weak is good for the CHF and bad for the USDCHF. 

The price move higher has moved to the underside of the channel trendline on the hourly chart at the 0.7822 area (see channel in the chart above).  A move back above this level should lead to further stops as the market shorts seem to be offside at the moment. 

 

No “Labor Day” sends the USDCHF lower. Rebounds from the low

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 06:07 AM PDT

The “No Labor Day” is an ironic prelude to the Labor Day holiday on Monday.  The USDCHF has moved lower as flight to quality bids in the CHF was the intial reaction. The price has since rebounded back to the upside,w ith resistance at the topside resistance at the 0.7792 area.  THe 38.2% of the days range comes in at the 0.7803 level. 

On the downside, the low came in at the 0.77078 level.  That would be a target.  Below that watch the 0.7680 area. This was where highs and lows came in on August 11th and 12th.

Of course the CHF may be open for intervention or verbal intervention so follow the technical levels  closely.

EURUSD stays in the range.

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 05:43 AM PDT

The tepid NFP report (zero jobs), has the EURUSD confused as to directional bias. The weaker number sent the pair lower initially on the weak is bad for everyone and especially EURO, but are now seeing a move back to the the highs on lower dollar across the board thought. The price has moved to the high for the day at the 1.4287 level and backed off.  On the downside, the initial fall fell to the underside of the channel trendline at the 1.4234 level (low reached 1.4328) and rebounded. These are the extremes to eye now.  The midpoint of the low to high range post the report comes in at 1.4256.  The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at the 1.4247.  This is support now.

 

NFP Zero jobs add. Revisions down. Unemployment rate 9.1% unchanged

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 05:30 AM PDT

Private sector jobs add 17K vs 95K
Revisions NFP 85K vs 117K
Private Payroll 156K vs 154K (unchanged).
Underemployment Rate 16.2%

The report is weak.

Finnish finance minister reiterates demand for collateral for Greek bailout

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 05:18 AM PDT

They also reiterate the opposition to Eurozone bonds.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.2.2011

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 05:18 AM PDT

Good Morning:

Investors and traders worldwide will be awaiting this morning’s release of US employment data at 8:30 AM EST.

The US has a national holiday on Monday-Labor Day.  Most US markets will be closed-but the FX market will be up and running.

Payrolls are expected to increase by approximately 70K-far less than the 117K increase in July.  The US rating downgrade by S&P, along with fears of default in Europe, and fighting between US lawmakers on the debt reduction program all led to the reduction in hiring.
These factors caused the markets to be nervous, and uncertain-which is a key component when companies cut back. 
The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 9.1%.  This will make the last 26 out of 28 months with an unemployment rate over 9%. 
Investors will look to see how many jobs the private sector added-as this sector is the strongest part on new job growth.

Equity markets are lower worldwide-and US Futures are lower at this time as concerns that the employment report will show signs of a continuing slow economy.

Gold is high again today-and Oil is slightly lower.

HAVE A GREAT DAY- WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

Japanese Finance Minister weighs in before NFP

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 05:17 AM PDT

Says Japanese industry will suffer if we don’t take measures against the strong yen.

It is curious the comments come right before the NFP report.

NY Morning Forex Commentary for Sept 2 2011

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 04:49 AM PDT


IFO’s Sinn says Eurobonds would be disastrous, would reduce pressure from markets.

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 03:18 AM PDT

Comments from Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 02:31 AM PDT

  • 2012 draft budget will be presented on Oct. 3rd.
  • Denied that EU/IMF talks are suspended.
  • banks must ramp up their efforts to meet the problems of mortgage problems.
  • Sees recession in Greece this year around 5%.
  • Greece is behind on closing the competitive gap.
  • Risky to keep target for positive growth rate in 2012.

 

ECB’s Honohan

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 02:24 AM PDT

  • Nature of recovery in Ireland will be moderate, growth will not be very labor intensive.
  • Domestic demand is still affected by past imbalances, external side performing well.
  • Entirely possible that banks will have to take some losses on mortgage loans.
  • All structural benchmarks in banking reform have been met, some ahead of schedule.
  • Would be beneficial if government announced medium term spending and tax plans in as much detail as possible.
  • Developments in financial markets show recognition Ireland is taking correct steps.
  • Have have sufficient financial strength to absorb losses for mortgages in serious difficulty.
  • There has been an exceptional rise in households who have missed payments on mortgages.

 

 

Eurozone PPI Stays According to Forecast at 6.1% vs a Prior Number of 5.9%

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 02:03 AM PDT

Eurozone PPI Data Expected at 5AM

Posted: 02 Sep 2011 01:37 AM PDT

Thursday, September 1, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Webinars TODAY. Join Up by Signing Up.

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 06:03 AM PDT

The Traders Course will focus on the EU and the EURO in a continuation of the summer time series.

EURUSD pushes the upside with the next key target being the 1.4305/11 area

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 05:55 AM PDT

The EURUSD pushes to the upside in the first NY break. The 1.4305-11 are the next targets. Support at the 1.4274-84 now.  (see prior post)

There is talk of bond buying in EU bonds helping the tone.

ECB Nowotny: Governments are not keeping their part of the bargain

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 05:45 AM PDT

  • Hard, serious work needed to solve the crisis

The EURUSD consolidating/flagging. Awaiting a break for NY direction

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 05:40 AM PDT

The EURUSD is consolidating in the NY session after falling sharply in Europe on French bank worries and weaker ISM data. The pair has support at 1.4272 and 1.4262. On the topside 1.4285 amd 1.4293 are the break points.

Looking at the daily chart the price low today has also found support against the 38.2% of the move down from the May high at the 1.42577. 

Finally, the hourly chart is also signalling a reason to pause.  The price stall has slowed at the mid August levels (see chart below).

Initial Claims as expected Productivity falls but Labor Costs rise

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 05:34 AM PDT

Initial Claims 409k vs 410k expectations. Last revised to 421k  from 417K
Continuing Claims  3735 k vs  3681 k expectations.

Non Farm Productivity 2Q -0.7%
Labor Cost 2Q +3.3%

Above 400 but down from last week.  Continuing Claims higher not in the right direction.

Non Farm Productivity is good and bad. The productivity went down but people earning more.  People making more could mean more spending.

Labor Costs went up 6.2% in the 1Q and 3.3% in the 2Q.

The NY Opening Forex Commentary for Sept 1st 2011

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 05:06 AM PDT

French bank concerns hurt EURUSD today

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 04:40 AM PDT

The French banks were in the spot light overnight as Societe Generale was removed from the STOXX Euro 50 index.   There were rumors of the same bank having funding problems but these rumors seem to be unsubstantiated.

Merkel says competitiveness in Europe needs to be comparable

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 04:38 AM PDT

  • Comments that she appreciates Portugal effor on structural reform. This is in response to comments from Portugal PM saying measures are very difficult but they will be implemented. THe PM also commented that privatisaton is key to reform efforts

Plethora of US Data This Morning Including, Nonfarm Productivity, Payrolls & Unit Labor Costs

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 04:35 AM PDT

Irish Finance Minister does not expect to have extra funds EFSF

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 04:30 AM PDT

Pimco’s Balls on the Wires

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 03:12 AM PDT

Says:

  • It’s right for ECB to be in bond market
  • ECB can be ‘very powerful’ if it chooses
  • ECB can’t do everything to ease debt crisis
  • Long term debt solution for governments

ECB’s Weidmann Delivering Speech in Hanover

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 02:21 AM PDT

Says:

  • ECB must scale back crisis measures, reduce risk
  • Blurred fiscal-monetary policy erodes confidence
  • Up to governance to assume more risk
  • One solution to debt crisis could be fiscal union

Euro weaker in recent trade, rebounding slightly.

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 02:04 AM PDT

The EUR has traded lower since the entrance of Europe into the market with all of the European equity indexes opening, and currently trading lower; additional downward pressure added by a worse than expected Euro zone manufacturing PMI. On an hourly chart the EUR/USD was testing the 1.43533 level before making a pass through and closing below it.

We are currently trading in the area of the 50.0% on the daily chart. From this perspective the trend appears to be downward, a close below this level would be a bearish signal to indicate further selling.

UK manufacturing PMI 49.0 vs. 48.6 expected, lowest reading since July 2009.

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 01:30 AM PDT

Eurozone PMI Weaker at 49.0 vs 49.7

Posted: 01 Sep 2011 01:01 AM PDT