Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD tests intraday support level at 1.3617. The 1.3598 is the next target.
• Moody’s: Deficit is negative for credit. Cites regional difficulties.
• ECB buys 13.9 billion. 143 billion to date on the bond buying program.
• ECB announces bond purchases for the last week in a few minutes.
• USDJPY moves back above old trendline support at 77.17
• GBPUSD corrects back higher today. Support at 1.5843 currently.
• EURUSD breaks higher in early NY trade. Probes upside levels
• Dallas Fed President Fisher speaks on Bloomberg
• Trichet says ECB will preserve its credibility in all circumstances
• NY Morning Forex Commentary for Sept 12 2011
• The Forex Week Ahead for the week of September 11th 2011
• 9-12 Calender
• Aussie trade balance 1.83B vs. 1.91B forecast and 1.82B prior reading.
• Japanese CGPI (y/y) 2.6%
• Japanese BSI manufacturing index 10.3 vs. -23.3 prior reading.

EURUSD tests intraday support level at 1.3617. The 1.3598 is the next target. Posted: 12 Sep 2011 07:57 AM PDT The EURUSD is testing the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.3617 level.  The price has held on the first test. A move below at the 200 bar MA at the 1.3598 level.

Moody’s: Deficit is negative for credit. Cites regional difficulties. Posted: 12 Sep 2011 07:45 AM PDT Moody’s says Spanish deficit is negative for credit. They add that the regional deficits are showing the inability to cut spending.

ECB buys 13.9 billion. 143 billion to date on the bond buying program. Posted: 12 Sep 2011 06:31 AM PDT This is above the 10 billion expected.  This suggests that the ECB is more entrenched in the bond purchase program in an attempt to keep rates contained. The ECB buys bonds to artificially keep rates low for countries like Italy and Spain. The more they buy, the more support they are providing to their bonds. It should not be positive for the EURUSD since theyare forced to buy more to keep the rates steady.  In other words, it means that there is not enough demand in the market to keep rates steady. So they have to support with their own buying. The difference between what the ECB is doing and Quantitative Easing in the US, is that in the US, the Fed bought bonds and other securities to do the same thing. However, when they bought the bonds, they kept the money in the “system”. This increases the money supply and provides excess liquidity to presumingly stimulate lending and growth. In the EU, the ECB buys bonds but they also have been conducting draining operations to offset the money going to the sellers of the bonds.  So in effect they take from the rich and give to the poor (Italy and Spain in the form of lower yields on debt otherwise). In short the Fed is adding liquidity while keeping rates artifically low.  While the ECB is looking to keep some rates artificially low, while keeping the overall liquidity steady (not expansionary).

ECB announces bond purchases for the last week in a few minutes. Posted: 12 Sep 2011 06:29 AM PDT The expectations according to sources is 10 B in the current week.

USDJPY moves back above old trendline support at 77.17 Posted: 12 Sep 2011 06:22 AM PDT

GBPUSD corrects back higher today. Support at 1.5843 currently. Posted: 12 Sep 2011 06:01 AM PDT The GBPUSD made new lows for the move down today but found good support buying at the 1.5800 area.  Looking at the hourly chart above, the GBPUSD held channel trendline support and has bounced higher. The price is now above the upper trendline from the channel developed over the last two days of trading. The next target on the hourly chart comes in at the 1.5916 which is teh low from Thursdays trade. The topside trendline comes in at the 1.5939 level. The 100 hour MA comes in at the 1.5946 level. Looking at the 5 minute chart, the price is back above both the 100 and 200 bar MA (blue and green lines in the chart above). The Moving averages are moving flattening/moving higher which suggests that there may be buyers on dips against the levels. The 200 bar MA is currently at the 1.5843 level (green line in the 5 minute chart above). The 100 bar MA (blue line ) is at the 1.5935 level.  Look for buyers on dips toward these levels with stops below.  On the topside the next target is the 1.5902 level which corresponds with the 38.2% of the move down from the last spike high on Thursday. That and the 1.5916 level should attract profit taking sellers on the first look.

EURUSD breaks higher in early NY trade. Probes upside levels Posted: 12 Sep 2011 05:38 AM PDT The EURUSD has broken back into an old channel for the pair at the 1.3649 level .  The pair has been losing downside momentum over the last few hours of trading  (see how the the price has moved back above downside channels trendlines in chart above) and shorts have been forced to cover. Upside resistance on the hourly chart now comes in against the 1.3705 level and above that the 1.3721 level which is the 38.2% of the move down from last Thursdays high (see chart above). Looking at the 5  minute chart, there is closer resistance at the 1.3690 area currently which is bear flag resistance (see  topside trendline in the chart below).  Look for sellers on a test of this level in early trading. On the downside, the 1.3649 level on the hourly chart above and the 1.3643 level (the lower channel trendline in the bear flag below) are the levels to eye for downside clues. Breaks below increase the bearish bias for the pair.

Dallas Fed President Fisher speaks on Bloomberg Posted: 12 Sep 2011 05:27 AM PDT People deluges with uncertainty Dissent is part of the process Mkt volatility due to uncertainty Fed wants to make sure not pushing on a string

Trichet says ECB will preserve its credibility in all circumstances Posted: 12 Sep 2011 05:17 AM PDT ECB takes decisions in line with treaty No particular discussion on Greece at G7 Global economy is slowing Central bankers stand ready to provide liquidity Germany wants Greece to implement plan that has been agreed ECB guards ag inflation and deflation risk. Downside risk to the outlook Don’t see inflation near zero in advanced economies

NY Morning Forex Commentary for Sept 12 2011 Posted: 12 Sep 2011 05:10 AM PDT

The Forex Week Ahead for the week of September 11th 2011 Posted: 11 Sep 2011 10:11 PM PDT

9-12 Calender Posted: 11 Sep 2011 08:18 PM PDT

Aussie trade balance 1.83B vs. 1.91B forecast and 1.82B prior reading. Posted: 11 Sep 2011 06:38 PM PDT

Japanese CGPI (y/y) 2.6% Posted: 11 Sep 2011 04:56 PM PDT

Japanese BSI manufacturing index 10.3 vs. -23.3 prior reading. Posted: 11 Sep 2011 04:55 PM PDT

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Forex Wrap up show Friday at 12:30 PM with Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell
• Week Ahead in Trading this Monday at 9:30 AM
• G7 and Greece make weekend risk high…
• Feds Bullard says most potent weapon was QE3
• German government regrets Stark is stepping down
• Gold looking for that bid. $1863 is 100 hour MA
• CNBC painting the bleak picture for Greece
• EURUSD tests Fibonacci Support at the 1.3662 level. Care warranted…
• USDJPY falls on safe haven flows
• Report: Germany has proposed a plan to protect banks in case Greece defaults.
• EURUSD targets (continued).
• US Wholesale Inventories Rise to 0.8% from 0.7% and a Prior Figure of 0.6%
• GBPUSD at key trendline on the daily
• Rumors of a Greek default is “rubbish”: CNBC

Forex Wrap up show Friday at 12:30 PM with Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell Posted: 09 Sep 2011 02:26 PM PDT Forex Wrap up show Friday at 12:30 PM with Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell Register now

Week Ahead in Trading this Monday at 9:30 AM Posted: 09 Sep 2011 01:30 PM PDT   Week Ahead in Trading this Monday at 9:30 AM with Greg Micahlowski and Shawn Powell – Register now

G7 and Greece make weekend risk high… Posted: 09 Sep 2011 12:51 PM PDT It is another weekend where risk is elevated. The G7 is meeting and a comment or concerted action could be announced (not expected as most countries want a weaker currency).  The Greece situation is a wild card.  Greece denied. Germany warned.  Most feel that the a default is inevitable.  Will something happen this weekend?  Not sure.   When risk is increased it is advised to lighten up positions and wait for the new week to start.  Remember, the goal is to make steady money and above all not blow up.  When markets are closed, if you are not in a profitable position, anything can happen.

Feds Bullard says most potent weapon was QE3 Posted: 09 Sep 2011 10:12 AM PDT Also says growth above 2% in 2H is possible. Chance of US recession is only modest. Potential Greek default could be contained. A long slog to come before US housing recovers Europe resolution could take a couple of years. EURUSD has moved higher and is back above the channel trendlines broken earlier.  The move took traders by surprise as most (including myself) had resigned to weakness on Greece weekend default risk.   That was not to be.  Bullards comments eased some fear and squeezed the lower down shorts. Market more balanced at the lower levels now.

German government regrets Stark is stepping down Posted: 09 Sep 2011 09:03 AM PDT

Gold looking for that bid. $1863 is 100 hour MA Posted: 09 Sep 2011 09:00 AM PDT With stocks down, Gold has started to move back higher.  The 100 hour MA comes in at the 1863 area. A move above that level opens the upside.  The high for the day is 1885.

CNBC painting the bleak picture for Greece Posted: 09 Sep 2011 08:55 AM PDT Can’t meet payroll No payment from the next tranche GDP signals depression. Little support for privitazation plan Stock selling intensifies..

EURUSD tests Fibonacci Support at the 1.3662 level. Care warranted… Posted: 09 Sep 2011 08:35 AM PDT Weekend fear of a Greek default has the EURUSD trading at the days and lowest level since the end of February of this year.  The 1.36623 level is the 61.8% of the 2011 range. THe 1.3674 level is trendline support.  So far support has held.  However, care should be in order. It is Friday. Weekend risk is unknown. Comments from official (Germany and Greece) are suggesting that an event out of Greece could happen (Germany says they have a plan, Greece denies a default – of course they would…).  All of which makes traders nervous.

USDJPY falls on safe haven flows Posted: 09 Sep 2011 08:27 AM PDT The USDJPY has fallen sharply over the last half hour of trading. Safe haven flows on EU bank concerns has sent traders into the JPY. THe price fell below trendline support at the 77.54 level. This is now resistance above. On the downside, a break below the 77.42 level sends the pair lower.

Report: Germany has proposed a plan to protect banks in case Greece defaults. Posted: 09 Sep 2011 08:11 AM PDT There are no details to what the plan will be but the fact they have a plan, is moving closer to a default.  Worries in the market are that there are a number of banks who would be seriously effected (perhaps insolvent) if Greece defaults.  This in turn could also lead to a series of secondary effects that could lead to the house of cards falling down. The fact that Germany “has a plan” is comforting from one point, but worrisome from another.  What if the plan is not strong enough?

EURUSD targets (continued). Posted: 09 Sep 2011 08:00 AM PDT A long time follower, Stephen Ward, also pointed out that the 1.3674 level is another downside target. This level is just above the 61.8% of the move up from the years low at the 1.2873 level to the years high at the 1.4939 level.  That comes in at the 1.36623 level.  Keep these targets in mind. There should be profit taking near the levels.

US Wholesale Inventories Rise to 0.8% from 0.7% and a Prior Figure of 0.6% Posted: 09 Sep 2011 07:59 AM PDT

GBPUSD at key trendline on the daily Posted: 09 Sep 2011 07:52 AM PDT The GBPUSD is testing the trendline support at the 1.5905 level today (see daily chart above). The price has moved  below this level today. The first dip below was followed by a sharp move back higher as the market rejected the move (see chart below).  Over the last few hours, the price has been consolidating around the level with the 38.2% of the last leg providing a ceiling at the 1.5916 level. A move that takes the price back above the 1.5916 level is needed to help confirm the bottom may be in place for the day (1.5926,1.5937 and the 100 bar MA on the chart below would be upside targets).  Sellers against the 1.5916 level, keep the downside as the favored bias with a potential to extend the downside.

Rumors of a Greek default is “rubbish”: CNBC Posted: 09 Sep 2011 07:38 AM PDT EURUSD looking to move back in the channel above the 1.3728 area.  Key level for the pair.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Forex Fast Track workshop Online and Live sessions October 12-15 2011
• EURUSD breaking below the 1.3728 support. Key level for traders
• ECB Stark set to resign from the ECB board
• Margin on Gold has been increased according th CME website.
• Canada Housing Starts Drop Below 200K
• NY Morning Forex Commentary for Sep 9th
• Canada Housing Starts Data Due at 8:15AM
• Canada Unemployment comes in weaker with -5.5k job change
• HSBC cuts its 2011 Eurozone growth forecast to 1.6% from 2%, and cuts 2012 from 1.4% to 0.7%.
• UK CB leading index 0.3%.
• ECB’s Makuch
• JPM FX head says may need to downgrade EUR/USD forecast.
• UK PPI input (m/m) -1.9% vs -1.5% expected.
• IMF’s Lagarde on the wires…
• Chinese central bank advisor Li says its not proper for beijing to raise interest rates if US continues with easing.

Forex Fast Track workshop Online and Live sessions October 12-15 2011 Posted: 09 Sep 2011 07:24 AM PDT Forex Fast Track workshop- 2 days online, 1 day live in Phoenix with James Chen and Greg Michalowski Accelerated Learning Online and Live- The workshop will consist of two interactive three-hour webinar sessions.  The first session will be on Wednesday, October 12th and the second on Thursday, October 13th, both at 6PM EDT each day.  Both of the webinars will also be recorded.  On Saturday, October 15th, James Chen, Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell will be in Phoenix to conclude the series with a full day of face-to-face training at the Scottsdale Marriott at McDowell Mountains. What you will get: Two days of Online Education A Full Day of Live Training with FXDD's James Chen and Greg Michalowski Hands on, intensive learning environment Beautiful Hotel and Surrounding area Continental Breakfast Certificate of Completion Closing Cocktail Reception Fourteen hours of Forex training by two industry professionals, with years of experience coming to your home town.  This type of opportunity does not come every day, so act now. What does it cost? FXDD is making a commitment to provide meaningful trading education to our clients.  We want you to succeed.  Although this course could cost thousands of dollars elsewhere, FXDD is offering the 14-hours of training with James and Greg for just $399.  As part of our dedication to your education, FXDD will take $200 of your investment and deposit it directly into your live trading account after graduation to help get you started.*    Call 212 791 3933 x7187 or email Shawn Powell  spowell@fxdd.com to register or for more details.

EURUSD breaking below the 1.3728 support. Key level for traders Posted: 09 Sep 2011 07:13 AM PDT The EURUSD has moved lower on the back of ECBs Stark resignation.  The move lower has pushed the price below a couple trendlines on the hourly chart at the 1.3728 area. This level will be key for traders.  Right now the price has remained below it keeping the bearish bias. A move above should lead to some short covering. On the downside, the next key support comes in at the 1.3662 level. This is the 61.8% of the 2011 trading range.

ECB Stark set to resign from the ECB board Posted: 09 Sep 2011 05:55 AM PDT

Margin on Gold has been increased according th CME website. Posted: 09 Sep 2011 05:39 AM PDT

Canada Housing Starts Drop Below 200K Posted: 09 Sep 2011 05:18 AM PDT Canada Housing Starts:   Survey: 200.0K   Actual: 184.7K    Prior: 205.1K    Revised:  204.5K Aug vs July 2011 Total: 184,700 vs 204,500 3-Mo. Average:  195,267 vs 198,400 Urban Areas: 165,800 vs 184,600 Single Family: 64,400 vs 64,600 Multi Family: 101,400 vs 120,000 Rural Areas: 18,900 vs 19,900

NY Morning Forex Commentary for Sep 9th Posted: 09 Sep 2011 05:00 AM PDT

Canada Housing Starts Data Due at 8:15AM Posted: 09 Sep 2011 04:19 AM PDT

Canada Unemployment comes in weaker with -5.5k job change Posted: 09 Sep 2011 04:00 AM PDT Unemployment moves up 7.3%. Full time employment adds 25.7K Part time subtracts -31.2K Participation Rate falls to 66.7 from 66.8 The weaker employment numbers will certainly move ideas of rate rises out of the question for the Bank of Canada (and with global growth slowing could be a decline next).  The decline was the first decline since March 2011.  The USDCAD has moved higher off the news. Traders will be eying the 38.2% of the last leg higher.  If the level can hold the price has further potential to run higher. On the hourly chart the upaide has resistance at 0.9950. A move above that level opens up the upside more.

HSBC cuts its 2011 Eurozone growth forecast to 1.6% from 2%, and cuts 2012 from 1.4% to 0.7%. Posted: 09 Sep 2011 02:42 AM PDT

UK CB leading index 0.3%. Posted: 09 Sep 2011 02:30 AM PDT

ECB’s Makuch Posted: 09 Sep 2011 02:17 AM PDT Short-term goal is to cut deficits below 3% of GDP, head toward balanced budgets. Governments, not ECB, must solve fiscal problems in member states. Swift fiscal consolidation in the Euro-zone is key to finding solutions. Long-term goal is to build fiscal pillar of monetary union.

JPM FX head says may need to downgrade EUR/USD forecast. Posted: 09 Sep 2011 01:38 AM PDT

UK PPI input (m/m) -1.9% vs -1.5% expected. Posted: 09 Sep 2011 01:33 AM PDT Output was 0.2%; better than the 0.1% expectation.

IMF’s Lagarde on the wires… Posted: 09 Sep 2011 12:41 AM PDT Cannot comment yet on amount needed for steps against strong JPY. global economy slowed and downside risks have increased. Growth in some emerging markets may be too fast, policy may have to act to contain inflation. Consolidation, if happening too quickly, will hurt recovery. Advanced economies must restore fiscal sustainability. Monetary policy has to play a role in advanced economies, needs to be highly accommodating. Monetary policy makers should stand ready to act, including unconventional measures. US economic performance has been disappointing, downside risks have increased. Some banks need additional capital. UK strong fiscal consolidation is essential. Must not dismiss the risk of liquidity crisis.

Chinese central bank advisor Li says its not proper for beijing to raise interest rates if US continues with easing. Posted: 08 Sep 2011 11:40 PM PDT

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• James Chen Charting the Majors Rebroadcast
• ECB’s Trichet on The Wires
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.8.2011
• US Jobless Claims & Continuing Claims Both Rise, Jobs Stay Weak, Trade Balance Improves
• US Jobless Claims & Continuing Claims Data Due at 8:30AM
• BOE leaves benchmark rate at 0.50%, asset purchase facility unchanged at 200 bln GBP
• Citigroup’s chief economist says ECB should cut interest rates in October and focus on bailing out Italy and Spain.
• Japanese economy minister on the wires….
• Greek unemployment rate (June) 16.0% vs. 16.6% prior.
• German finanace minister on the wires….
• German trade balance 10.1B vs. 11.0B survey.
• Swiss unemployment rate 3.0% as expected.
• French non-farm (q/q) 0.2% vs. 3.0% forecast/prior reading.
• Japanese economy watchers sentiment 47.3; worse than expected.
• 9-8 Calender

James Chen Charting the Majors Rebroadcast Posted: 08 Sep 2011 07:00 AM PDT James Chen Charting the Majors 9:30 AM This Thursday – Watch the Rebroadcast

ECB’s Trichet on The Wires Posted: 08 Sep 2011 06:12 AM PDT Says; Balance of risks has changed ECB stands ready to provide liquidity Liquidity not an issue for Euro-area banks Euro extends drop versus Pound, weakens 1.1% to 87.24 pence German 10 year bond yield falls to record low 1.823% Significant that inflation risks no longer on upside Euro extends decline against Dollar, slides .9% to $1.3965

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.8.2011 Posted: 08 Sep 2011 05:57 AM PDT Good Morning: A fairly uneventful overnight session ahead of today’s busy schedule of policy news and speeches.  We start with rate announcements by the BOE and ECB (both rates were left unchanged). This will be Trichet’s farewell press conference, and traders are looking for any signs of a change in policy.  This will be followed by speeches today by Fed Chairman Bernanke and this evening by President Obama.  President Obama will outline his new $300 billion jobs program.  Let’s all hope that this speech has some real “punch” to it-and is not a political campaign speech.  US unemployment claims rose this week-as yet another sign of the struggling US labor market.  With the global and US economy at risk for a double-dip recession, firms are looking to cut their labor costs, and are slow at ramping up production. Equity markets and Futures are lower. Gold is higher-Oil fairly stable at $88/bar. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

US Jobless Claims & Continuing Claims Both Rise, Jobs Stay Weak, Trade Balance Improves Posted: 08 Sep 2011 05:34 AM PDT Jobless Claims:  Survey: 405K  Actual: 414K  Prior: 409K  Revised: 412K Continuing Claims:  Survey: 3706K  Actual: 3717K  Prior: 3735K  Revised: 3747K

US Jobless Claims & Continuing Claims Data Due at 8:30AM Posted: 08 Sep 2011 05:08 AM PDT

BOE leaves benchmark rate at 0.50%, asset purchase facility unchanged at 200 bln GBP Posted: 08 Sep 2011 04:01 AM PDT

Citigroup’s chief economist says ECB should cut interest rates in October and focus on bailing out Italy and Spain. Posted: 08 Sep 2011 03:22 AM PDT

Japanese economy minister on the wires…. Posted: 08 Sep 2011 02:26 AM PDT Hope BOJ takes decisive steps promptly to support the economy. Up to the BOJ to decide when to take action. JPY is “very strong” if you consider firms expected rate. Want to compile package against strong JPY as soon as possible.

Greek unemployment rate (June) 16.0% vs. 16.6% prior. Posted: 08 Sep 2011 02:08 AM PDT Euro a tough firmer on the release.

German finanace minister on the wires…. Posted: 08 Sep 2011 12:22 AM PDT Approving the EFSF change is vital to stabilizing the EUR. Can help indebted countries, but Euro zone member states must resolve underlying reasons. Needs EFSF so that Greek problems do not endanger stability of the Euro. The situation in Greece is serious. Next Greek aid tranche cannot be paid until conditions are met. EFSF expansion gives time for further changes.

German trade balance 10.1B vs. 11.0B survey. Posted: 07 Sep 2011 11:05 PM PDT

Swiss unemployment rate 3.0% as expected. Posted: 07 Sep 2011 10:46 PM PDT

French non-farm (q/q) 0.2% vs. 3.0% forecast/prior reading. Posted: 07 Sep 2011 10:42 PM PDT

Japanese economy watchers sentiment 47.3; worse than expected. Posted: 07 Sep 2011 10:03 PM PDT

9-8 Calender Posted: 07 Sep 2011 08:29 PM PDT

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Canada Ivey PMI Stronger
• EU Rehn says situation in finacial markets is serious
• Italy may need new austerity plans for ECB to continue buying bonds
• CNBC reports that Fed Conptroller, FDIC asked banks to stress test
• EURUSD tests 200 day MA at the 1.4017 level
• Canada Ivey PMI Data Due at 10AM
• Bank of Canada leaves rates unchanged. Statement more dovish.
• Bank of Canada Intereset Rate Stays Unchanged at 1.00%
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.7.2011
• UBS Chief European Economist reported saying Greece is insolvent
• Bank of Canada interest rate decision at 9 AM today
• Canada Interest Rate Decision Due at 9AM
• Irish fin. minister says Eurozone bailout fund is too small.
• Greek 10 year bond yield rises to 10 year record of 20%
• German industrial production (m/m) 4.0% vs 0.6% forecast.

Canada Ivey PMI Stronger Posted: 07 Sep 2011 07:17 AM PDT Came in at 57.6 vs expectations of 52.2 and rises from the 45.4 reading last month. Aug vs. July 2011 Purchasers Index   56.4 vs 46.8 3-mo. average       54.4 vs 57.4 Employment           52.5 vs 55.8 Inventory                 57.9 vs 58.5 Supplier Delivery   45.6 vs 44.8 Prices                        64.0 vs 62.2

EU Rehn says situation in finacial markets is serious Posted: 07 Sep 2011 06:54 AM PDT Stress increased over the summer.  He also commented that the implementation of EFSF reform is essential.

Italy may need new austerity plans for ECB to continue buying bonds Posted: 07 Sep 2011 06:47 AM PDT This is according to Italian Senate Finace Chairman Baldassarri.  Meanwhile EU Juncker is saying he does not see risk of EU entering recession. The EURUSD moved below the 200 day MA at the 1.4017 level – reching a low price of 1.4014 – but the price quickly rebounded back above key level.

CNBC reports that Fed Conptroller, FDIC asked banks to stress test Posted: 07 Sep 2011 06:38 AM PDT Included Bank of America, JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley asked  to submit capitalization plans.

EURUSD tests 200 day MA at the 1.4017 level Posted: 07 Sep 2011 06:28 AM PDT The EURUSD tested the 100 hour MA earlier today and fell off. Since that time, the price is back down and looks to test the 200 day MA at the 1.4017 level.  The price moved below this key level yesterday but found support against the long term trendline on the daily chart at the 1.4072 level. Looking at the 5 minute chart the 1.4017 is also a level where floors and ceilings have formed over the last 24 hours.  Key level for todays trading.

Canada Ivey PMI Data Due at 10AM Posted: 07 Sep 2011 06:10 AM PDT

Bank of Canada leaves rates unchanged. Statement more dovish. Posted: 07 Sep 2011 06:01 AM PDT The Bank of Canada announced that rates would remain the same this month.  Their statement was a touch more dovish as they commented that the need to withdraw stimulus was dimished. Below is the statement from the Bank of Canada website. http://www.bankofcanada.ca/2011/09/press-releases/fad-press-release-2011-09-07/ —————————————————————————————————————————————– Ottawa, Ontario - The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent. The global economic outlook has deteriorated in recent weeks as several downside risks to the projection in the Bank's July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) have been realized. The European sovereign debt crisis has intensified, a broad range of data has signalled slower global growth, and financial market volatility has increased sharply. Recent benchmark revisions show that the U.S. recession was deeper and its recovery has been shallower than previously reported. In combination with recent economic data, this implies that U.S. growth will be weaker than previously anticipated. The Bank expects that American household spending will be even more subdued in the face of high personal debt burdens, large declines in wealth and tough labour market conditions. Fiscal stimulus in the United States will also soon turn into material fiscal drag. Acute fiscal and financial strains in Europe have triggered a generalized retrenchment from risk-taking and could prompt more severe dislocations in global financial markets. Resolution of these strains will require additional significant initiatives by European authorities. Growth in emerging-market economies has been robust, although its rate and composition will be affected by weakness in major advanced economies. While commodity prices have declined owing to diminished global growth prospects, they remain relatively high. Largely due to temporary factors, Canadian economic growth stalled in the second quarter. The Bank continues to expect that growth will resume in the second half of this year, led by business investment and household expenditures, although lower wealth and incomes will likely moderate the pace of investment and consumption growth. The supply and price of credit to businesses and households remain very stimulative. However, financial conditions in Canada have tightened somewhat and could tighten further in the event that global financial conditions continue to deteriorate. Net exports are now expected to remain a major source of weakness, reflecting more modest global demand and ongoing competitiveness challenges, in particular the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar. Slower global economic momentum will dampen domestic resource utilization and inflationary pressures. The Bank expects total CPI inflation to continue to moderate as temporary factors, such as significantly higher food and energy prices, unwind. Core inflation is expected to remain well-contained as labour compensation growth stays modest, productivity recovers, and inflation expectations remain well-anchored. Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. In light of slowing global economic momentum and heightened financial uncertainty, the need to withdraw monetary policy stimulus has diminished. The Bank will continue to monitor carefully economic and financial developments in the Canadian and global economies, together with the evolution of risks, and set monetary policy consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term.

Bank of Canada Intereset Rate Stays Unchanged at 1.00% Posted: 07 Sep 2011 06:00 AM PDT

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.7.2011 Posted: 07 Sep 2011 05:53 AM PDT Good Morning: Swiss nationals welcomed the decision by the Swiss Nat’l Bank to halt the appreciation of the CHF.  The exporting sector has been reeling the past few weeks with the appreciation of the CHF-as the cost of chocolates,cheese, Swiss knifes, watches,  and all other exported products reached sky high levels. In other FX news-the USD lost steam, as equity markets rallied.  The Euro was stronger after a German court rejected constitutional changes to Germany’s participation in the Euro Zone’s rescue package. Market participants are anticipating that Fed Chairman Bernanke will announce additional monetary easing   meaures in a speech on Thursday. President Obama will also be making a speech tomorrow evening to a joint session of Congress to propose a new jobs program.  This program is being started with a $300 billion infusion into the economy next year.  The infusion will come in the form of tax cuts, direct aid to state and local governments, along with a infrastructure spending bill. More than half of the infusion will come in  the form of tax cuts-which will be through a reduction in the payroll tax paid by employees and employers. White House press secretary Carney refused to give specific details until after tomorrow’s speech. Equity markets are higher-as is Oil and Gold is off $40/oz. US Futures are looking for a higher opening this morning. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

UBS Chief European Economist reported saying Greece is insolvent Posted: 07 Sep 2011 05:42 AM PDT Remember the EURUSD has the 100 day MA at the 1.4017 level today.

Bank of Canada interest rate decision at 9 AM today Posted: 07 Sep 2011 05:24 AM PDT The Bank of  Canada will announce their interest rate decision today at 9 AM. No change is expected for the country as the strong C$ and slowing global growth is likely to keep the rate low for an extended period of time.    About one third of the Canadian economy is dependent on exports. Below is the announcement from last month. In that announcement, although they outlined the risks, they still felt that taking away some of the stimulus would be withdrawn in order to keep inflation in check.  This paragraph may be toned down given the increasing headwinds in the global economy. Ottawa - The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 1/4 per cent and the deposit rate is 3/4 per cent. The global economic expansion is proceeding broadly as projected in the Bank's April Monetary Policy Report (MPR), with modest growth in major advanced economies and robust expansions in emerging economies.  The U.S. economy has grown at a slower pace than expected and continues to be restrained by the consolidation of household balance sheets and slow growth in employment. While growth in core Europe has been stronger than expected, necessary fiscal austerity measures in a number of countries will restrain growth over the projection horizon. The Japanese economy has begun to recover from the disasters that struck in March, although the level of economic activity in that country will remain below previous expectations.  In contrast, growth in emerging-market economies, particularly China, remains very strong. As a consequence, commodity prices are expected to remain at elevated levels, following recent declines. These high prices, combined with persistent excess demand in major emerging-market economies, are contributing to broader global inflationary pressures.  Widespread concerns over sovereign debt have increased risk aversion and volatility in financial markets. In Canada, the economic expansion is proceeding largely as projected, although the expected rotation of demand is somewhat slower than had been anticipated. Household spending remains solid and business investment robust. Net exports remain weak, reflecting modest U.S. demand and ongoing competitiveness challenges, particularly the persistent strength of the Canadian dollar. Despite increased global risk aversion, financial conditions in Canada remain very stimulative and private credit growth is strong. Following an anticipated slowdown in growth during the second quarter due to temporary supply chain disruptions and the impact of higher energy prices on consumption, the Bank expects growth in Canada to re-accelerate in the second half of 2011. Over the projection horizon, business investment is expected to remain strong, household spending to grow more in line with disposable income, and net exports to become more supportive of growth. Relative to the April projection, growth in household spending is now projected to be slightly firmer, reflecting higher household income, and net exports to be slightly weaker, reflecting more subdued U.S. activity. Overall, the Bank projects the economy will expand by 2.8 per cent in 2011, 2.6 per cent in 2012, and 2.1 per cent in 2013, returning to capacity in the middle of 2012. Total CPI inflation is expected to remain above 3 per cent in the near term, largely reflecting temporary factors such as significantly higher food and energy prices. Core inflation is slightly firmer than anticipated, owing to temporary factors and to more persistent strength in the prices of some services. Core inflation is now expected to remain around 2 per cent over the projection horizon.  Total CPI inflation is expected to return to the 2 per cent target by the middle of 2012 as temporary factors unwind, excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed, labour compensation growth stays modest, productivity recovers, and inflation expectations remain well-anchored. The Bank's projection assumes that authorities are able to contain the ongoing European sovereign debt crisis, although there are clear risks around this outcome. Reflecting all of these factors, the Bank has decided to maintain the target for the overnight rate at 1 per cent. To the extent that the expansion continues and the current material excess supply in the economy is gradually absorbed, some of the considerable monetary policy stimulus currently in place will be withdrawn, consistent with achieving the 2 per cent inflation target. Such reduction would need to be carefully considered.

Canada Interest Rate Decision Due at 9AM Posted: 07 Sep 2011 04:22 AM PDT

Irish fin. minister says Eurozone bailout fund is too small. Posted: 07 Sep 2011 03:43 AM PDT

Greek 10 year bond yield rises to 10 year record of 20% Posted: 07 Sep 2011 03:16 AM PDT The 2 year note meanwhile rises to 53.27% another record The EU says Troika reviewing Greek measures and that more additional work needed to be done by Greece.

German industrial production (m/m) 4.0% vs 0.6% forecast. Posted: 07 Sep 2011 03:09 AM PDT

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