Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• IMF expects completion of Greek loan program within days
• ECB’s Juncker on the Wires
• EURUSD surges back toward and through the highs
• Charting the Majors with James Chen – Webinar Rebroadcast
• GBPUSD rebounds but remains below resistance levels
• The 1.3346 level is the close from yesterday. Next target resistance level.
• EURUSD defines the range as Trichet comments digested
• Canada Building Permits
• Trichet headline comments from his final press conference
• Canada Building Permits fall sharply
• US Jobless Claims & Continuing Claims
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.6.2011
• EURUSD trades up and down in volatile trading. Awaits Trichet comments
• ECB leaves rate unchanged at 1.5%.
• ECB decision late…HMMM

IMF expects completion of Greek loan program within days Posted: 06 Oct 2011 07:44 AM PDT Meanwhile, Greece’s private sector union rejects Troika talks invitation.  The EURUSD has paused at the 200 hour MA at the 1.3435 level but needs to move back below the 1.3411 level and then 1.3491/97. The Monday high at the 1.3481 level will also now be support for the pair.

ECB’s Juncker on the Wires Posted: 06 Oct 2011 07:42 AM PDT Says: ECB’s Draghi will defend Euro stability. Expects Greek troika report Oct.24. EU me need to review Greek aid program. Opposes further expansion of EFSF. EFSF couldn’t handle any Italy Rescue. Must use EFSF as efficiently as possible.

EURUSD surges back toward and through the highs Posted: 06 Oct 2011 07:32 AM PDT The move above the 1.3356 level has opened the door for a move back toward the highs of the day/the week – and with the last surge is now above those levels.  We can go back to Friday and Monday for a review of the levels. On Friday, the price closed at 1.3394 (4 pm close) On Monday the high came in at 1.3381.  Today, in the London session that gap was filled when the price moved up to the 1.33977 level.  In the last few minutes the price has pushed even higher – breaking above the 1.3400 level. Now, the price is currently testing the 50% of the trend move down from the September 29th high. That level comes in at the 1.34114 level.  Above that the 200 hour MA at the 1.3436 level is the next target.  Traders will be eyeing the 1.3394/97 and then the 1.3381 level as support.  Shorts are getting squeezed as risk appetite increases and that means into the EURUSD.

Charting the Majors with James Chen – Webinar Rebroadcast Posted: 06 Oct 2011 07:22 AM PDT Please click on the following link to access the rebroadcast of today’s Charting the Majors with James Chen. This webinar featured the current technical outlook on the major currency pairs in an interactive and educational session. Please click here to access: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/938606617 .

GBPUSD rebounds but remains below resistance levels Posted: 06 Oct 2011 07:10 AM PDT The GBPUSD has moved off the lows but the pair remains below the low from Tuesday’s trade at the 1.5340 level.  The high price on the move higher has reached 1.5334.  Staying below this level keeps the bears firmly in charge.  A move above still has the 38.25 of the days range at 1.5356.  IF the price moves above that, shorts from below may look to cover more.  The GBPUSD is down sharply as a result of the increase in QE today by the BOE to 275 billion pounds from 200 billion.

The 1.3346 level is the close from yesterday. Next target resistance level. Posted: 06 Oct 2011 06:46 AM PDT The 1.3346 level was the close from yesterday.  Not far from it is the 1.3356 level. Above that, and the door is opened for a move back to the highs (1.3384-94)

EURUSD defines the range as Trichet comments digested Posted: 06 Oct 2011 06:07 AM PDT The EURUSD has found it’s range as Trichet’s final press conference continues.  On the downside the low from yesterday at the 1.3259 level has the markets attention. While on the topside the 1.3300 to 1.3310 now seems to be the resistance for the pair. The 100 hour MA is currently at the 1.3310 level. The 38.2% of the move down today comes in at the 1.33008 level.     Should the price dip below the 1.3259 level, the lows and highs from October 4th (see chart below) at the 1.3226 and 1.3233 level will become the next target.  The lows for the week is at 1.31449.  Looking at the daily chart, in January 2011, there was a low floor at 1.3243 before the price surged higher.  I would consider this level a minor support level but when the market looks for profit taking clues,  the past lows (and highs) can become more important.  The move down since the end of August has been sharp (from 1.4548 to 1.3144). The price decline has taken the pair below the 50% of the move up from the June 2010 low of 1.1876.  That level comes in at 1.34077 currently and last nights high at 1.33977 is confirmation that downside remains supportive.   The question is the short term is up in the air.

Canada Building Permits Posted: 06 Oct 2011 05:45 AM PDT Canada Building Permits drop to a whopping -10.4% versus a projected survey of 0.3% and a prior number of -0.6%.

Trichet headline comments from his final press conference Posted: 06 Oct 2011 05:43 AM PDT Inflation has remained elevated Expects inflation to stay above 2% over the next few months Economy facing intensified downside risk Intensified downside risks Interest rates remain low There is high uncertainty ECB to offer 1 year loans to banks ECB to also offer 1 year and 13 month and 3 month  Longer term refinancing Operations ECB to resume covered bond purchases of 40 billion Euros. To start in November. Will buy in primary and secondary markets He adds that the non-standard measures are temporary by nature. GDP expected to be very moderate in the 2H Tension of sovereign debt to hurt growth The EURUSD to this point has risen from the lows but remains below the 1.3300 level. The rally has been in reaction to the increased liquidity measures (risk off bid).   However, the markets remain volatile.  1.3259 and 1.3226-33 remain downside suppport targets. On the topside, the 1.3311-15 area remains upside resistance. Sees inflation as broadly balanced Monetary expansion continues to be moderate. Banking system requires particular attention Banks must boost balance sheets, retain earning, and use government support All governments need to take decisive action All need to show determination Nations under programs need to implement measures. Governments must act swiftly. We have heard these words before.  Must act swiftly. Must implement measures.  It is easily said, but not easily done by the governments in question.  EURUSD holds the 1.3259 level on the latest dip and trades at 1.3283 currently (8:56 AM ET). The chart below shows the up and down volatility in the last half hour of trading.  The range seems to be defined, with the major comments likely all over.  So the market should start to settle down. The upside resistance now can be outlined as the 38.2% of the days range at the 1.303008 level up to the 100 hour MA at the 1.3315 level currently.  On the downside the 1.3259 and 1.3226-33 remains the support targets to get through.

Canada Building Permits fall sharply Posted: 06 Oct 2011 05:36 AM PDT The Canada Building permits surprised with a -10.4% decline.   The USDCAD spiked higher on the news but found profit taking sellers at the 38.2% retracement at 1.0478 level  The price has since moved back lower and stands near the levels just prior to the release. The low, after the release has corrected 38.2% of the move higher today (see chart below) at 1.0435 level.  Staying above this level keeps the bulls in charge.

US Jobless Claims & Continuing Claims Posted: 06 Oct 2011 05:32 AM PDT Jobless Claims:  Survey: 410K  Actual: 401K  Prior: 391K  Revised: 395K Continuing Claims:  Survey: 3725K  Actual: 3700K  Prior:  3729K  Revisad: 3752K

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.6.2011 Posted: 06 Oct 2011 05:25 AM PDT Good Morning: In a move that makes no common sense-the ECB left interest rates unchanged at 1.5%.  The markets were expecting a 25 basis point cut to help spur economic activity in the depressed Euro Zone’s economy.  With the EU’s banking sector in tatters-you would think they would react logically and lower rates versus looking for other monetary easing policies to help lift their economies.   With Greece on the verge of a potential default-the European community is looking for it’s member countries to work in a coordinated effort to inject needed capital into the banking sector.  With European banks heavily burdened with Greek (along with Spanish, Irish,Portuguese and Italian) debt, the fear of the further tightening of bank funding along with the overall credit markets is a major global concern.     In other news across the pond-the BOE left interest rates unchanged at .5%.  They also added additional QE (Quantitative Easing) to their ongoing monetary easing policy.   With the BOE seeing inflation rising, along with  a potential strain in bank funding in the coming months-they felt compelled to add addition QE without lowering interest rates at this time. All eyes will be looking for any additional indication on whats tomorrow’s non farm payroll and unemployment data will be. I was very sad to hear of the death of Steve Jobs from Apple-he really was a visionary. World equity markets are higher and US Futures are also higher at this time. TIME       FOR EST. PRIOR 7:00A.M. BANK OF ENGLAND RATE DECISION       7:45A.M. ECB RATE DECISION         8:30A.M. ECB PRESS CONFERENCE         8:30A.M. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS   OCT.1 410K 391K 8:30A.M. CONTINUING CLAIMS   24-Sep 3725K    3729K HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

EURUSD trades up and down in volatile trading. Awaits Trichet comments Posted: 06 Oct 2011 05:01 AM PDT   The EURUSD has been trading in a volatile range since the interest rate decision to keep rates unchanged. The 100 hour MA at the 1.3315 level currently will be eyed on the topside as resistance.  On the  downside, the 1.3259 level is the low from yesterday.  Below that, the 1.3226/33 will be targeted (highs and lows  from October 4th). Looking at the shorter term 5 minute chart, the 38.2% retracement of the sharp move down today, comes in at the 1.3315 level.  This combined with the 100 hour MA, increases the importance of the level for trading today.

ECB leaves rate unchanged at 1.5%. Posted: 06 Oct 2011 04:48 AM PDT The EURUSD moved lower as an initial reaction, but has slingshot back higher in volatile trading. The  market will await further details from Trichet’s press conference at 8:30 AM ET.

ECB decision late…HMMM Posted: 06 Oct 2011 04:48 AM PDT

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• US Senators Plan to Introduce Repatriation Tax Bill
• Irish Finance Minister States the Euro is a ‘Very Solid Currency’
• ISM Chairman Nieves on the Wires
• US ISM-Non Manufacturing Composite Falls to 53.0
• Ask the Chartist with James Chen – Webinar Today, Oct 5 at 10:00 AM ET
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary for October 5th 2011
• Rumor of US think tank report of an ECB easing
• US ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Data at 10AM
• ADP Employment Change Stays Same as Prior at 91K
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.5.2011
• US Employment Change Data Due at 8:15AM
• Challenger Job Cuts 212% Higher Than One Year Ago
• EZ Retail Sales drop 0.3% in August
• UK GDP rises 0.1% on quarter and 0.6% for year, weaker than expected
• UK Services PMI stronger than expected

US Senators Plan to Introduce Repatriation Tax Bill Posted: 05 Oct 2011 07:43 AM PDT This is a bill proposing tax breaks for US companies that bring home foreign profits. Very positive news for the dollar.

Irish Finance Minister States the Euro is a ‘Very Solid Currency’ Posted: 05 Oct 2011 07:29 AM PDT

ISM Chairman Nieves on the Wires Posted: 05 Oct 2011 07:20 AM PDT Says: Drop in employment is ‘tell-tale sign’ Service companies cautious and uncertain Employment drop shows loss of confidence Report shows ‘slow’, incremental growth’ Employment needs to improve to spur growth Companies remain hesitant, controlling cost Tight inventory control

US ISM-Non Manufacturing Composite Falls to 53.0 Posted: 05 Oct 2011 07:06 AM PDT Manufacturing Composite:   Survey: 52.8   Actual: 53.0    Prior: 53.3 August vs July 2011 Prices Paid: 61.9 vs 64.2 New Orders:  56.5 vs 52.8 Backlog of Orders:  52.5 vs 47.5   Inventory Change: 51.5 vs 53.5 Employment: 48.7 vs 51.6 ISM Employment data falls sharply.

Ask the Chartist with James Chen – Webinar Today, Oct 5 at 10:00 AM ET Posted: 05 Oct 2011 06:21 AM PDT Please join us today (Wednesday, October 5) at 10:00 AM ET for FXDD’s Ask the Chartist with James Chen. This free webinar will feature answers to questions from the audience regarding forex trading, technical analysis, and trading strategies. Please click here to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/149915497 .

The NY Morning Forex Commentary for October 5th 2011 Posted: 05 Oct 2011 05:51 AM PDT

Rumor of US think tank report of an ECB easing Posted: 05 Oct 2011 05:39 AM PDT That news could be interpreted two separate ways by the market. 1. Bad for the EURUSD as the interest rate differential is narrowing 2. Good for “risk” which has been good for the EURUSD. Support comes in a 1.3310-14 currently.   For shorts a break of this target should lead to further selling with the the trendline at the 1.3286 level being the next target for the pair.

US ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite Data at 10AM Posted: 05 Oct 2011 05:22 AM PDT

ADP Employment Change Stays Same as Prior at 91K Posted: 05 Oct 2011 05:17 AM PDT   Employment Change:  Survey: 75K    Actual: 91K    Prior: 91K       September vs August 2011 Small Firms(1-49):  49,382 vs 49,322  Level Change: 60 vs 58 Medium Firms(50-499):  42,099 vs 42,063  Level Change: 36 vs 31 Large Firms (499):  17,455 vs 17,460 Level Change:  -5 vs 0 Manufacturing: 11,663 vs 11,668 Level Change: -5 vs -7 %Manf. Jobs: 10.7% vs 10.7% Goods-Producing: 17,835 vs 17,834 Level Change: 1 vs 6 %Goods Produced: 16.4 vs 16.4 Service-Producing: 91,101 vs 91,011 Level Change: 90 vs 83 %Service Produced: 83.6 vs 83.6

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.5.2011 Posted: 05 Oct 2011 05:16 AM PDT Good Morning: A fairly calm overnight session-especially after yesterday’s see saw in the US equity markets.  For those who missed it-the Dow was off as much as 260 points-but in the latter part of the day the markets rallied to end the day 150 points higher.   The Euro picked up-after declining against the USD.  It is now back in the mid 1.33 level.  The GBP lost ground, and moved to the lowest level against the USD in almost 1 year.  UK government data indicated that the economy grew less than expected last quarter.  This will add pressure to the Bank of England to keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future.  Rumors in the market point to the BOE continuing, if not increasing, it’s bond purchasing program.  Additionally, some Asian currencies are seeing strength, as investors anticipate continued monetary easing in Europe and the US to boost the struggling world economies.  World equity markets rose, and US Futures are also higher at this time. TIME       FOR EST. PRIOR 7:00A.M. MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS 30-Sep   9.30% 7:30A.M. CHALLENGER JOB CUTS YoY SEPT.   47.00% 8:15A.M. ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE     SEPT.      70K 91K 10:00A.M. ISM NON-MANUF. COMPOSITE SEPT. 52.8O 53.3O HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

US Employment Change Data Due at 8:15AM Posted: 05 Oct 2011 04:37 AM PDT

Challenger Job Cuts 212% Higher Than One Year Ago Posted: 05 Oct 2011 04:33 AM PDT

EZ Retail Sales drop 0.3% in August Posted: 05 Oct 2011 02:05 AM PDT EZ Retail sales m/m came in at -0.3%, weaker than the -0.2% expected.

UK GDP rises 0.1% on quarter and 0.6% for year, weaker than expected Posted: 05 Oct 2011 01:36 AM PDT Final GDp q/q came in at 0.1%, weaker than the 0.2% expected. Y/y came in at 0.6%, weaker than the 0.7% expected. Gbp/Usd traded down to 1.5445 on news.

UK Services PMI stronger than expected Posted: 05 Oct 2011 01:32 AM PDT UK Services PMI came in at 52.9, stronger than the 50.6 expected.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• US Factory Orders Drop to -0.2% From 2.4% in The Prior Month
• Fed Bernanke says prepared to take further action as appropriate
• USDCAD makes new highs and targets 1.0672
• Pimco El Arian says real US unemployment rate 20%
• EURUSD moves toward trendline resistance
• Trichet speaking now. Primary aim to price stability
• Talking Technicals with James Chen – Webinar Today at 12:30 PM U.S. ET
• Canada Finance minister Flaherty commenting on newswires
• Mexico Consumer Confidence Falls to 92.4 From Prior Figure of 93.4
• Sources: EU debating a bigger haircut for Greek bank creditors
• GBPUSD finding some profit taking support against trendline in early NY trading
• NY Morning Forex Commentary for November 4th 2011
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.4.2011
• Factory Orders Due at 10AM
• Trendline in play on daily chart for the NZDUSD

US Factory Orders Drop to -0.2% From 2.4% in The Prior Month Posted: 04 Oct 2011 07:02 AM PDT

Fed Bernanke says prepared to take further action as appropriate Posted: 04 Oct 2011 07:02 AM PDT Europe pose a risk Inflation moderating Persistent factors restraining pace of recovery Sluggish job growth likely Recover mush less robust Monetary policy not a panacea for US economy Government cuts are an increasing drag on economy http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20111004a.htm

USDCAD makes new highs and targets 1.0672 Posted: 04 Oct 2011 07:01 AM PDT The USDCAD continues to trend to the upside with the next key target in the 1.0667 to 1.0672 area.   The 1.0667 is the current upside trendline  on the hourly chart below. The daily chart above has a ceiling in the area from July/August 2010.

Pimco El Arian says real US unemployment rate 20% Posted: 04 Oct 2011 06:58 AM PDT

EURUSD moves toward trendline resistance Posted: 04 Oct 2011 06:34 AM PDT The EURUSD is approaching top trendline resistance at the 1.3219 level. This line connects highs over the last few days of trading on the hourly chart. A move above will be needed to increase the corrective momentum. The high for the day for the day is 1.3226. A break of that level targets the 1.3244 price. On the downside, 1.3193 and 1.3174 are levels to eye for downside clues.   The 1.3193 is the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. The 1.3174 level is a floor level. The range for the day so far  is 81 pips (1.3144 to 1.3226). This is a narrow range for the day and an extension to the upside or the downside cannot be ruled out. So far Trichets comments have not caused much of a reaction. Bernanke speaks at 10 AM ET. The stock market is open with S&P down 14 points and now below the key 1100 level. The Dow is down 120 points.

Trichet speaking now. Primary aim to price stability Posted: 04 Oct 2011 06:16 AM PDT Debt crisis puts Euro under severe pressure Medium term inflation expectations remain stable Trichet needs a finance ministry Risk to inflation balanced Moderate GDP growth in the 2nd half Will continue to guard our currency

Talking Technicals with James Chen – Webinar Today at 12:30 PM U.S. ET Posted: 04 Oct 2011 06:15 AM PDT Please join us today (Tuesday, Oct. 4) at 12:30 PM U.S. ET for FXDD’s Talking Technicals with James Chen. This free webinar will feature a high-probability technical approach to trading in the Forex market. Please click here to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/588186792 .

Canada Finance minister Flaherty commenting on newswires Posted: 04 Oct 2011 06:13 AM PDT Government to introduce budget laws to boost jobs Considerable global risk/uncertainty Has advocated for flexibility on size of facility Europe has decided to create (i.e. EFSF) Volatility in C$ is always a concern Would do more to stimulate growth.

Mexico Consumer Confidence Falls to 92.4 From Prior Figure of 93.4 Posted: 04 Oct 2011 06:11 AM PDT

Sources: EU debating a bigger haircut for Greek bank creditors Posted: 04 Oct 2011 06:09 AM PDT Haircut may involve lower coupon, longer maturities.  If the haircut is larger, than recapitalization of banks will likely be thought through and implemented.

GBPUSD finding some profit taking support against trendline in early NY trading Posted: 04 Oct 2011 05:50 AM PDT   The GBPUSD found support at bottom trendline at the 1.5362 area in the hourly chart above.   This was the third test of the trendline and has prompted some profit taking from traders – at least initially.   Looking at the intraday chart below, Traders who are dip buyers will now need a move above the 1.5391 level to confirm a potential temporary bottom.  A move above this level would next target the 100 bar MA at the 1.5409 level currently.  The 200 bar MA on the same chart (green line in chart below) comes in at the 1.5423 and the topside trendline is at the 1.5440 level.  These are all targets above which will define the route for any bulls, and provide selling options for the trend followers. If the downward trend down is to continue today, a break of the low for the day (and trendline in the hourly chart) has the 1.5343 and then 1.5326 levels as targets.  The 1.5343 is the low from the end of December 2010 and during August 2010 period.  The 1.5326 is the low from September 22nd 2011.

NY Morning Forex Commentary for November 4th 2011 Posted: 04 Oct 2011 05:27 AM PDT

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.4.2011 Posted: 04 Oct 2011 05:21 AM PDT Good Morning: World equity markets continue to take a beating as Asian, along with European indexes stayed lower.  US Futures are also lower by over 100 points at this time.  Dexia  stock (The French-Belgium bank) lost almost 40% of it’s value, as their exposure to Greek debt seems to be larger than originally thought.  The Euro tumbled on the heels of the Dexia crisis. The French government has commented that Dexia has liquidity problems, not solvency problem.  Either way-Dexia has major problems on their hands. The S&P index is now within 1% of being considered a “bear market”.  With countries around the world running out of options to keep their economies afloat-worldwide indexes are all about to enter a “bear market” period. The USD is fairing very well among the world’s chaos, as investors seek the safe haven of US Treasuries and the greenback. Oil is lower-while Gold and Silver remain higher.               TIME        FOR EST. PRIOR 10:00A.M. FACTORY ORDERS   AUG. 0.00% 2.40%               10:00A.M. BERNANKE TO TESTIFY ON U.S. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK   HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Factory Orders Due at 10AM Posted: 04 Oct 2011 04:58 AM PDT

Trendline in play on daily chart for the NZDUSD Posted: 04 Oct 2011 04:49 AM PDT The 0.7502 level is being tested in the NZDUSD. This is the trendline which extends from the lows in June 2010.    The price is currently below that level now and is testing the low for the day for the 4th time.  Momentum needs to be developed shortly or another corrective rally can occur.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• ISM Improves Along with Construction Spending
• EURUSD moves higher on initial reaction to ISM index
• GBPUSD hanging around daily 50% Fibo level
• The Forex Week Ahead Calendar of Releases and Events
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.3.2011
• US Construction Spending, ISM Data Due at 10AM
• NY Morning Forex Commentary for October 3rd 2011
• Feds Fisher on CNBC ; Major comments
• IMF’s Zhu says Europe is making progress on debt problems, situation is more stable than before.
• Kiwi testing resistance at .76277
• UK manufacturing PMI (Sept) 51.1 vs. 48.6 expected.
• Eurozone manufacturing PMI (Sept) 48.5 vs. 48.4 expected (49.0 prior) – lowest since August 2009.
• IMF official says some slowing in Chinese economic growth is warranted.
• Cable grinding higher
• Swiss manufacturing PMI (Sept) 48.2 vs. 50.5 expected.

ISM Improves Along with Construction Spending Posted: 03 Oct 2011 07:02 AM PDT Construction Spending MoM:  Survey:  -0.2%    Actual:  1.4%    Prior:  -1.3%  Revised:  % ISM Manufacturing:   Survey: 50.5    Actual: 51.6     Prior:  50.6 September vs August 2011 Prices Paid: 56.0 vs 55.5 Production:  51.2 vs 48.6 New Orders:   49.6 vs 49.6 Backlog of Orders:  41.5 vs 46.0 Inventory Change:  52.0 vs 52.3 Employment: 53.8 vs 51.8  ISM Prices Paid:   Survey: 54.8  Actual: 56.0   Prior:  55.5

EURUSD moves higher on initial reaction to ISM index Posted: 03 Oct 2011 07:01 AM PDT Construction spending also better. For the EURUSD, the 1.3341 level is where the 100 and 200 bar on the 5 minute chart is found.  A move above is needed to scare the short who have seemed comfortable in the NY session.  Above the 1.3341 is the 1.3361 (low from September 26th), 1.3384 (low from September 22nd) and 1.3394 (gap from Friday).  The 1.34077 is the 50% of the move up from the June 2010 low to the May 2011 high.

GBPUSD hanging around daily 50% Fibo level Posted: 03 Oct 2011 06:15 AM PDT The GBPUSD has been testing the 50% of  the move up from the May 2010 at the 1.54868 level today. The price has moved below it on three separate occasions (see hourly chart below) and each time, the move has found buyers. The most recent in the last hour of trading, saw a new low at the 1.5479 level.  The price is still staying around the level.  So a further decline is still possible.  There is further support against the 61.8% of the move up from the September 22nd low at the 1.54733 level. A break opens the door for further declines in the pair On the topside today, 1.5519 is the midpoint of the recent move up from the 22nd low to the high reached on last Thursday.  It is also near the 100bar MA on the 5 minute chart (see 5 minute chart below).  A move above that will target the 200 hour MA at the 1.5549 level.   The GBPUSD was boosted by better UK PMI data this morning. However, that move higher found willing sellers which pushed the price back to the lows and support levels.

The Forex Week Ahead Calendar of Releases and Events Posted: 03 Oct 2011 06:04 AM PDT

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.3.2011 Posted: 03 Oct 2011 06:00 AM PDT Good Morning: Fears of a default by Greece has pushed the Euro to a 8 month low versus the USD.  The Euro’s decline was it’s steepest since June 2010. Questions regarding Greece’s ability to secure additional bailout funds on the heels of fresh budget cuts made by the Greek government are on the forefront of most investors thoughts these days.  The main issue is that weak growth prospects in Greece’s economy, along with additional cuts in Greek government spending, and additional taxes being placed on the Greek population are all leading to economic failure. The cost of an EU bailout, along with keeping the debt crisis from spreading larger will not only take a lot of time-it will take a lot of money-most certainly more than the 440 billion Euros that have been agreed to so far. In other European banking news-Dexia Bank -the French-Belgian Bank has been placed on a downgrade watch by Moody’s. Moody’s already downgraded Soc Gen and Credit Agricole’s long term rating in September.  This just adds to the woes of the French Banking sector-which is rumored to be exposed to Greek debt in a big way. World equity markets were and are mostly lower-at this time-and US Futures are pointing to a lower opening this morning. Gold and silver are higher-Oil is lower at this time. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

US Construction Spending, ISM Data Due at 10AM Posted: 03 Oct 2011 05:46 AM PDT

NY Morning Forex Commentary for October 3rd 2011 Posted: 03 Oct 2011 05:04 AM PDT

Feds Fisher on CNBC ; Major comments Posted: 03 Oct 2011 04:22 AM PDT Fed has limited amount of ammunition Operation twist impact is not that great He does not feel benefits outweigh costs Total uncertainty currently Activity is not robust but not declining Positive growth but anemic growth through year end. Less than 3% until the next of year Businesses are uncertain. All businesses are frozen with the uncertainty What businesses know is rates will remain low. Underestimated economic growth, infaltion is higher than expected. Sees infaltion trending toward 2% Question is With rates so low, are they effective? DO they create jobs?  Fed Faces moral action if they continue action. Fisher is from Texas and is a hawk. He is one of the dissenters on the Fed Open Market Committee.

IMF’s Zhu says Europe is making progress on debt problems, situation is more stable than before. Posted: 03 Oct 2011 02:27 AM PDT

Kiwi testing resistance at .76277 Posted: 03 Oct 2011 01:52 AM PDT After receiving short term support from .76054 the NZD/USD traded down to .75716, but has since rebounded and is currently testing resistance at .76277 where we find both the 100 bar moving average and the 50.0% line on the move from Friday’s high to today’s low of .75716. If we can move higher through this level our next target is .76409.

UK manufacturing PMI (Sept) 51.1 vs. 48.6 expected. Posted: 03 Oct 2011 01:33 AM PDT It seems that the market initially read the release wrong selling the GBP/USD 100 points lower down to 1.54818, but rebounded immediately and traded up to our previously stated target at the 50.0% line. The pair back trading around 1.5519.

Eurozone manufacturing PMI (Sept) 48.5 vs. 48.4 expected (49.0 prior) – lowest since August 2009. Posted: 03 Oct 2011 01:02 AM PDT

IMF official says some slowing in Chinese economic growth is warranted. Posted: 03 Oct 2011 12:58 AM PDT

Cable grinding higher Posted: 03 Oct 2011 12:56 AM PDT The USD has slowly depreciated through out the night with no drastic movements. After finding a low of 1.54883, the GBP/USD has slowly rebounded with the first topside target being 1.55553; further higher we look to 1.5576.

Swiss manufacturing PMI (Sept) 48.2 vs. 50.5 expected. Posted: 03 Oct 2011 12:33 AM PDT

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD makes it to 1.3407.
• Week Ahead in Trading, this Monday at 9:30am with Greg and Shawn
• EURUSD back to 1.3427 area…
• Report on Bloomberg that Buffett has been approached European banks
• Friday Weekly Forex Wrap up – TODAY at 11:00 AM with Greg and Shawn
• EURUSD rotating back down
• France’s Sarkozy says he urged Papandreuo to implement reforms

EURUSD makes it to 1.3407. Posted: 30 Sep 2011 02:39 PM PDT As we move to the last hour of trading, the EURUSD has made its way to the 50% retracement of the move up from the June 2010 low.    It is month and quarter end but the traders are voting for more downside risk for the pair.  The price is still above the low for the week (low was reached on Monday at 1.33616) but closing near the key 1.3407 level is certainly not a bullish bias.  Weekend risk exists for the pair. On the bearish side include the Greece situation with its contagion effect.  Although they talk and meet and promise about this or that, the recovery in Greece is daunting and likely to lead to a more downside risk. There will be corrections but ironically until there is a definitive solution which will likely include a default, restructuring, recapitalization of banks, the rallies in teh EURUSD will likely be sold.

Week Ahead in Trading, this Monday at 9:30am with Greg and Shawn Posted: 30 Sep 2011 01:11 PM PDT Week Ahead in Trading, this Monday at 9:30am with Greg and Shawn Register now

EURUSD back to 1.3427 area… Posted: 30 Sep 2011 12:17 PM PDT The EURUSD is back down to the 1.3427 support area

Report on Bloomberg that Buffett has been approached European banks Posted: 30 Sep 2011 11:17 AM PDT He commented that he is not a good prospect.  He does not name any banks either.

Friday Weekly Forex Wrap up – TODAY at 11:00 AM with Greg and Shawn Posted: 30 Sep 2011 09:49 AM PDT Friday Weekly Wrap up this Friday at 11:00 AM with Greg and Shawn – Register now

EURUSD rotating back down Posted: 30 Sep 2011 09:20 AM PDT The EURUSD held the 1.3459 resistance target and has rotated back down to the 1.3427 level. This level and the 1.34077 price remains as support for the pair.   It is month/quarter end so there exists the possibility of position squaring.

France’s Sarkozy says he urged Papandreuo to implement reforms Posted: 30 Sep 2011 09:12 AM PDT Greek authorities are ready to work with EU experts Will meet with Merkel in Germany in coming days to work with EU experts I wonder how many times the promises will continue to be made?

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