Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Moody’s downgrades Cyprus to Baa3
• Unnamed minister expects coalition government by Monday if confidence vote is won
• EURUSD looks to next target at 1.3788
• Greek Parliament begins session for confidence vote
• Friday Forex Wrap up October 4 2011 Rebroadcast
• EURUSD takes a stab at the topside as London looks to exit

Moody’s downgrades Cyprus to Baa3 Posted: 04 Nov 2011 12:35 PM PDT

Unnamed minister expects coalition government by Monday if confidence vote is won Posted: 04 Nov 2011 10:21 AM PDT The Greek Parliament is debating the confidence vote of Papendreou currently. The vote is not expected until after the NY close today.

EURUSD looks to next target at 1.3788 Posted: 04 Nov 2011 10:18 AM PDT

Greek Parliament begins session for confidence vote Posted: 04 Nov 2011 09:16 AM PDT The vote is expected to not take place until after the US market closes today. This increases the weekend risk for traders.

Friday Forex Wrap up October 4 2011 Rebroadcast Posted: 04 Nov 2011 09:15 AM PDT 11:00 AM Friday Forex Wrap up with Greg and Shawn - Register now

EURUSD takes a stab at the topside as London looks to exit Posted: 04 Nov 2011 09:00 AM PDT The EURUSD was able to move above the 1.3737-44 level and that was enough to force some covering toward the London close.  Now with support at the old resistance, traders will look for the next upside target at the 1.3770 level.  This is the 38.2% of the days range.  I would expect sellers against this level on the 1st test.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD shows some signs of upside life
• IMF could act quickly to provide further funds to EFSF…
• Canada’s Harper says no intention to contribute to the European bailout
• Canada’s Harper disappointed with the latest employment
• EURUSD holding against the intraday resistance
• G20 final communique says G20 stands ready to ensure additional resources for IMF can be mobilized…
• Mexico Consumer Confidence Rises to 90.6
• Sarkozy comments on the newswires
• EURUSD and GBPUSD move below 100 hour MA
• EURUSD remains contained after report
• Unemployment weaker this month. Revisions are better to neutralize the bad.
• Unemployment Moves Lower to 9.0% , Nonfarm & Private Payrolls Weaker with Strong Revisions
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-November.4.2011
• Levels to eye for the EURUSD
• Merkel says G20 failed to agree on IMF resources

EURUSD shows some signs of upside life Posted: 04 Nov 2011 07:56 AM PDT The pair has moved made a new hour long high and moved briefly above the 1.3737 level.  Activity remains choppy.  The bottom pickers will be looking for further upside momentum. The burden of proof remains with the buyers. A move above the 1.3744 level will be eyed next.

IMF could act quickly to provide further funds to EFSF… Posted: 04 Nov 2011 07:47 AM PDT …once Europes bailout plan is solidified.

Canada’s Harper says no intention to contribute to the European bailout Posted: 04 Nov 2011 07:27 AM PDT Will do what they can to insure financial stability

Canada’s Harper disappointed with the latest employment Posted: 04 Nov 2011 07:20 AM PDT He believes Canada will avoid a recession.

EURUSD holding against the intraday resistance Posted: 04 Nov 2011 07:16 AM PDT The last leg down in the EURUSD has the 38.2% at the 1.3740 level . The low for the day is 1.3715.  A break below 1.3715 opens up more downside. A move above the 1.3740 could trigger some profit taking.  Bias remains down, but choppy two way trading is dominating now.

G20 final communique says G20 stands ready to ensure additional resources for IMF can be mobilized… Posted: 04 Nov 2011 07:13 AM PDT ….They just don’t know how they will go about doing that just yet. They cite options for boosting IMF  include bilateral contributions, SDRs and Payments to a special structure.  I am not sure that the money is actually flowing into these options yet.

Mexico Consumer Confidence Rises to 90.6 Posted: 04 Nov 2011 07:02 AM PDT

Sarkozy comments on the newswires Posted: 04 Nov 2011 06:30 AM PDT Europe has given message to Greece over EUR Praises Italy for measures to boos confidence G20 to meet in Feb to explore various options for boosting IMF resources Not decided on different options for IMF Big trade surplus countries commit to boost domestic demand Capital controls are now seen as necessary tool to fight instability Chinese Yuan is candidate for IMF SDR IMF instruments like short term credit line are being considered France will fight for transactions tax G20 looking for ways to boost EFSD via the IMF IMF Special Drawing Right identified as possible way to boost EFSF The comments highlight the idea that the money is not flowing directly to the EFSF.  The EFSF cancelled an auction this week.   Merkel commented that the G20 countries are not looking to invest in EFSF.   So the Eurozone is now looking toward the IMF for funding but no plan is decided.  Just ideas.  Money is scarce and no one seems willing to part with it.

EURUSD and GBPUSD move below 100 hour MA Posted: 04 Nov 2011 06:19 AM PDT Both the EURUSD and GBPUSD has moved below the 100 hour MA levels at the 1.3778 (currently for the EURUSD ) and 1.5993 (for the GBPUSD). For the EURUSD , the next target for the pair comes in at the 1.37375 area. This was a nice floor in yesterdays trading for the pair and is also the 50% of the move up from the low this week.  A move below this level would open the downside for further selling in the pair For the GBPUSD, staying below the 1.6000 level now targets its 50% retracement of the week at the 1.5967 and then the 1.5945 level.

EURUSD remains contained after report Posted: 04 Nov 2011 05:47 AM PDT The EURUSD whipped around at 8:30 on the weaker headline, stronger revisions and is now working through what it wants to do. The range took the price above the 13851 (38.2% of the move down from the October 26th high to the low) – reaching a high of 1.3867.  The low post the report has come in at the 1.38049. The midpoint of the range comes in at the 1.3836 level. On the hourly chart, the price moved above the 38.2% of the move down from the late October high at the 1.3851 but that move was short lived. Nevertheless, this level will be eyed this morning on any rallies toward it. Sellers against the level should lead to rotation back down – and continued direction uncertainty. A move above and there could be some further gains toward the highs and the 200 hour MA at the 1.3900 level.   On the downside a break of the 1.3800 level has the 100 hour MA (blue line in the hourly chart) at the 1.37805 level currently. A break below this level will likely target the next support at the 1.3738 level. This level was a floor yesterday in NY afternoon trading.   Patience.

Unemployment weaker this month. Revisions are better to neutralize the bad. Posted: 04 Nov 2011 05:33 AM PDT The NFP rose by 80K  vs 95K Private Payroll 104k vs 125k Expected Underemployment 16.2 vs 16.5% last Unemployment 9% vs 9.1% expected Revisions were better at: NFP 158k vs 103k Private 191K vs 137K Ho hum report. The revisions saved the day, but the underlying pace of job expansion remains weak.

Unemployment Moves Lower to 9.0% , Nonfarm & Private Payrolls Weaker with Strong Revisions Posted: 04 Nov 2011 05:32 AM PDT Change in Nonfarm Payrolls:   Survey:  95K     Actual:  80K    Prior:  103K      Revision: 158K Change in Private Payrolls:  Survey: 125K    Actual: 104K     Prior:  137K     Revised: 191K Change in Manufacturing Payrolls:  Survey: 2K   Actual:  5K   Prior:  -13K     Revised: -3K Unemployment Rate:  Survey:  9.1%     Actual:  9.0%     Prior:  9.1%       Avg Hourly Earning (MoM) All Emp:    Survey:  0.2%     Actual: 0.2%      Prior:  0.2%          Avg Hourly Earning (YoY) All Emp:    Survey:  1.8%      Actual: 1.8%      Prior:  1.9%       Avg Weekly Hours All Employees:    Survey:  34.3      Actual: 34.3            Prior:  34.3

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-November.4.2011 Posted: 04 Nov 2011 05:29 AM PDT Good Morning: The FX markets were fairly tame overnight-as we await US employment data this morning at 8:30 AM. Yesterday’s surprise interest rate cut by the ECB-along with the political turmoil in Greece, all account for the see saw moves we witnessed this week. It seems that the Europeans have not been able to attract investment interest in the EFSF. They have been looking at China-who faces enormous internal political pressure not to invest in the Euro Zone.  Should the EFSF be looking at other sources for funding?  Time will tell where the best source of funding will originate from. The G-20 leaders are meeting-as Greece is at risk of collapsing-as the debt ridden government seems to have no support either internally or in the eyes of other world leaders.  The G-20 meeting in Cannes, France is focused on getting the rescue plan that was agreed to last week enacted by Greece. Commodities are lower-and equity markets were mixed-with US Futures lower at this time. HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

Levels to eye for the EURUSD Posted: 04 Nov 2011 05:29 AM PDT EURUSD The EURUSD is above the 100 hour MA at hte 1.3780 and below the 200 hour MA at the 1.3900 level.  The 38.2% of the move down from the high last week comes in at the 1.3851.  Movements outside these ranges will give the bias for the market.  On the downside, a move below the 1.3780 level will next target the 1.3738 level. This level was a key floor in yesterdays NY afternoon trading. Below that the 1.3650 area followed by the low at 1.3607. On the topside a move above the 1.3851 has the 200 hour MA at the 1.3900 level. A bove that the 1.3926 and the 1.3950 level as the next targets

Merkel says G20 failed to agree on IMF resources Posted: 04 Nov 2011 05:03 AM PDT She adds that hardly any countries have said they will participate in the EFSF The EURUSD has dipped on this headline pre US Employment report. As if the US Unemployment report was not enough, the market will be focused on headlines out of the all important G20 meeting. These recent headlines are not supportive of the EURUSD and could lead to a more negative bias for the pair post the NFP report.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD back higher on the day
• G20 official: Eurozone countries talking about idea of pooling IMF SDR allocation
• EURUSD retraced all the way back to the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart
• Traders Course 4:00 PM TODAY: Non-Farm Payroll
• EURUSD falls toward the low for the day and finds profit takers. 1.3709-19 eyed above
• Papendreou will not resign but will await results of talks with opposition party
• Greek referendum will not go ahead if major parties reach political agreement
• Factory Orders Show Positive Data Improve to 0.3%, Manufacturing Lower
• Greek government ready to discuss opposition proposal on temporary government
• Greek President Not to Meet With Papandreou Today
• ECB Draghi’s comments as they come out
• EURUSD stays above close from yesterday at 1.3746
• Greek PM has not resigned: Report from Socialist official
• Greek confidence vote is now unlikely: Socialist Party member
• Surprise ECB cut to 1.25%. Draghi press conference eyed

EURUSD back higher on the day Posted: 03 Nov 2011 07:48 AM PDT The price moved above the 1.3708-18 area  and the price surged higher. The price is now above the 1.3747 close of yesterday. It is above the midpoint of the days range. It is up on the talk of no Greek referendum and talk of new credit line from IMF.  The details are sketchy but the market is acting now and asking questions later it seems.

G20 official: Eurozone countries talking about idea of pooling IMF SDR allocation Posted: 03 Nov 2011 07:33 AM PDT Also proposing new 6 month IMF credit line of about 500% of the members quota.  The proposed new IMF credit line would be for countries facing exogenous shocks.  This would NOT include countries like Italy and Spain. HMMM..Who does it help then? Markets are tied to headline risk. Liquidity risk is increased as well which increases the effects of the headlines.

EURUSD retraced all the way back to the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart Posted: 03 Nov 2011 07:30 AM PDT Fast break the other way. The EURUSD moved above the the 1.3709 level and the 200 bar MA at the 1.3719 level and did not stop until reaching the 100 bar MA at the 1.3741 level.  Now look for support at the prior resistance.

Traders Course 4:00 PM TODAY: Non-Farm Payroll Posted: 03 Nov 2011 07:25 AM PDT Traders Course 4:00 PM TODAY: Non-Farm Payroll Special Update Show with FXDD Chief currency analyst Greg Michalowski and Forex Trainer Shawn Powell. Register now

EURUSD falls toward the low for the day and finds profit takers. 1.3709-19 eyed above Posted: 03 Nov 2011 07:17 AM PDT The low for the day came in at the 1.36558 level. The low on the move down in the NY morning 1.36588.  Profit takers came in against the level and slowed the decline. On the topside, the last leg to the downside took the price from 1.3792 to 1.36588. The 38.2% of that move down comes in at the 1.37097. The 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at the 1.3719 level.  This level held support on the initial move lower.  A move above this area will disappoint the shorts who are expecting more today.

Papendreou will not resign but will await results of talks with opposition party Posted: 03 Nov 2011 07:13 AM PDT That should be fun…

Greek referendum will not go ahead if major parties reach political agreement Posted: 03 Nov 2011 07:08 AM PDT According to the PM’s Office

Factory Orders Show Positive Data Improve to 0.3%, Manufacturing Lower Posted: 03 Nov 2011 07:04 AM PDT Manufacturing Composite:  Survey: 53.5   Actual: 52.9   Prior: 53.0   Composite Index: 52.9 vs 53.0 last month Business Activity: 53.8 vs 57.1 last month New Orders: 52.4 vs 56.5 last month Backlog of Orders: 47.0  vs 52.5 last month Supplier Deliveries* 52.0 vs 49.5 last month Inventory Change * 57.5 vs 59.0 last month Employment: 53.3 vs 48.7 last month Factory Orders:    Survey: -0.2%   Actual: 0.3%   Prior: -0.2%   Revised: 0.1%

Greek government ready to discuss opposition proposal on temporary government Posted: 03 Nov 2011 06:50 AM PDT Papendreuo majority is hanging on a thread with defections pushing the ruling party to 150 for and 150 against.  As a result, there is a question on whether his government can govern.

Greek President Not to Meet With Papandreou Today Posted: 03 Nov 2011 06:40 AM PDT

ECB Draghi’s comments as they come out Posted: 03 Nov 2011 06:35 AM PDT Intensified risk to the economy Significant downside revisions to 2012 Price costs should remain moderate Underlying expansion still moderate Economic outlook is subject to high degree of uncertainty Growth to be dampened by moderating global demand Low short term interest rates will help the economy Inflation rates likely to stay above 2% for some time, then ease Inflaton risks are broadly balanced Sluggish growth has potential to reduce inflation risk Soundness of bank balance important.  Welcomes 9% capital ratio. See mild recession at the year end Financial stability lies first with government Never precommit to rate cuts May have overshot sovereign bond spreads The solution to the overshoot is not to rely on external forces (in other words…have ECB/EFSF artificially buy bonds) ECB Balance sheet is not at risk.

EURUSD stays above close from yesterday at 1.3746 Posted: 03 Nov 2011 06:12 AM PDT The last 3 five minute bars has found buyers against the close from yesterday at the 1.3746.  Moving below this level opens the door for the bears to take a run at the 100 and 200 bar MAs (so far the 200 bar MA (blue and green lines) held support) but until then the shorts may be forced to cover. The situation in Greece is fluid and the market action suggests that the buyer and sellers are balanced – currently at least.  Although the cut is welcomed (and perhaps overdue), does it change the tide.   A lot of effort is being made to stop the bleeding, put rings around the problems, etc, yet the source of the bleeding is not healing.  It also is becoming an increasing albatross around the Eurozones neck.  Merkel’s comment that if the Greeks vote ”no” they “won’t get a cent” sounded like a parent lecturing a misbehaving child who just does not listen.  In reality Merkels threat if carried out, will likely mean full default of Greek debt and more capitalization will be needed for EU banks (and potential for more contagion in Italy and Spain).  Is that what she really wants?  Is that what the EU economy needs?  In a normal situation, let Greece (i.e. the bad child) go their own way and let the cards fall where they fall. However, with the tentacles extending far and wide (they just outlined a plan to put the firewall around the problem areas, now that will be destroyed), does the EU have a choice?  Too big. Too fast.  Too much leverage leads to too much risk.  I lecture to retail traders to define risk, limit risk, accept risk. Risk cannot be defined. Risk may not be limited and therefore accepting risk is very difficult for Merkel and company.  FEAR is increased.

Greek PM has not resigned: Report from Socialist official Posted: 03 Nov 2011 06:03 AM PDT

Greek confidence vote is now unlikely: Socialist Party member Posted: 03 Nov 2011 06:01 AM PDT Is that because Papendreuo will resign?   The EURUSD has moved back higher on the news. Gold is up $34 Oil is up $1.30 Dow Futures are up 147 S&P is up 17 German Dax is up  222 or 3.8% French CAC is up 105 or 3.29%

Surprise ECB cut to 1.25%. Draghi press conference eyed Posted: 03 Nov 2011 05:53 AM PDT The EURUSD fell sharply on the cut with the low finding support against the 100 bar MA on the first look. The price rallied back higher but has continued the softening to the 200 bar MA on the same chart below. The change in the ECB policy should weaken the EURUSD. The Greek uncertainty should weaken the EURUSD.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD tests 100 bar MA on 5 minute chart
• G20 official: Another meeting hijacked by Greece
• Forex Platform Big Picture Trading with Shawn Powell at 4:00 PM TODAY
• Merkel says needs more clarity about Greek referendum
• Italy government officials working on a draft decree for budget
• GBPUSD has a lot going on at the 1.6039 area
• Merkel and Sarkozy to meet with Papandreou at 12:30 PM
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-November.2.2011
• Fed Central Tendencies released later today by Fed/Bernanke
• ADP Employment Adds 110K Jobs in October
• Bank of Spain says mid and long term funding markets practically closed
• NY Morning Forex Commentary for November 2nd 2011
• US Challenger Job Cuts Stronger at 12.6% vs. Prior of 211.5%
• S&P says credit rating could being effected by EFSF expansion
• German banking association says expects wide approval by private creditors for Greek debt haircut.

EURUSD tests 100 bar MA on 5 minute chart Posted: 02 Nov 2011 07:38 AM PDT The EURUSD has moved below trendline support and tests the 100 bar MA on the 5  minute chart.   The trendline came in at 1.3784 and staying below this level is needed to keep the bears/sellers satisfied.  A move back above – especially after holding the 100 bar MA – will likely disappoint and lead to further upside momentum for the time being. Meanwhile a break of the 1.3773 level (100 bar MA) opens the door for a test fo the 1.3749-56 area.

G20 official: Another meeting hijacked by Greece Posted: 02 Nov 2011 07:08 AM PDT The comment may be indicative of the frustration from officials In another news item, Der Spiegel has an article that states that the Greek exit from the Euro Zone is just a matter of time. http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,795426,00.html

Forex Platform Big Picture Trading with Shawn Powell at 4:00 PM TODAY Posted: 02 Nov 2011 06:50 AM PDT Forex Big Picture Trading method with Shawn Powell at 4:00 PM this Wednesday – Register now

Merkel says needs more clarity about Greek referendum Posted: 02 Nov 2011 06:45 AM PDT She will meet with Papendreou at 20 GMT today No comment on talk earlier with Greek PM

Italy government officials working on a draft decree for budget Posted: 02 Nov 2011 06:31 AM PDT Draft decree may include public realty sales.  To solve shortfalls with asset sales assumes that there is a buyer. The EURUSD although off the high is still more near the pairs high than low.  And lets face it, there is a reluctance to buy now.  Governments are saving. People are saving.  If selling assets are the answer, I am not sure it will be the savior that most expect.

GBPUSD has a lot going on at the 1.6039 area Posted: 02 Nov 2011 06:14 AM PDT The upward sloping trendline, the ceiling from October 25th, 26th and 27th, and the 100 hour MA come in at the 1.6039 area.  This level was tested earlier today. So it is the second test today.  Below is the 200 hour MA at the 1.6000 level. The 100 day MA is also in play today at the 1.60237 level.  The price is back below the level  after the quick move higher.   Staying below the 1.60237 level and a subsequent fall below the 1.6000 level, should put the bears back in control.  However, with the Fed and Bernanke due later today, there may be two way action that keeps the bulls and bears active on rallies and dips.

Merkel and Sarkozy to meet with Papandreou at 12:30 PM Posted: 02 Nov 2011 06:05 AM PDT The meeting comes after the surprise referendum announcement yesterday by the PM on the whether Greeks want to endure further financial sacrifices.  Needless to say, the two leaders, who just last week banged out a plan for the EU to insure against a collapse of the banking system and contagion into Italy and Spain, were likely shocked by the announcement. I can imagine they would like a good explanation from the Greek leader.  On Thursday and Friday the G20 will be meeting.  What Greece is going to do will certainly be a point of interest for all.  Despite the uncertainty, the EURUSD has traded more positively today. Perhaps the market is expecting QE3 from the Fed which should lead to a higher stocks and move into risk. The EURUSD is considered a “risk on” currency.  The next level of resistance comes in at the 1.3822 level which is the 38.2% of the weeks trading range.  There should be some profit taking selling against the level on the first test.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-November.2.2011 Posted: 02 Nov 2011 05:36 AM PDT Good Morning: Another sea saw session for the EUR/USD, as the pair was very active all night.  First, rumors that the Chinese are interested in investing in the EFSF moved the pair, and than news hit the wires that the EFSF bond issue will be delayed.  The news that really sent the markets into a tailspin is that Greece will call for a national referendum (a national vote) on the bailout deal.  Markets fear that any delay in the Greece bailout deal will push Greece closer to bankruptcy. Today, Greek Prime Minister Papandreou, French President Sarkozy, and German Chancellor Merkel will be the main focus today-as they meet to discuss future moves. One of the main reason why the EUR/USD pair has not dropped further despite all the problems in the Euro Zone, is that the US Fed is focused on their QE programs-and the continued dilution of the greenback has kept the USD rally contained.  Dow futures are higher this morning-as European and Asian equity markets are mixed.   Gold, silver and Oil are all higher this morning. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Fed Central Tendencies released later today by Fed/Bernanke Posted: 02 Nov 2011 05:29 AM PDT The Feds Central Tendencies will be released today (and discussed by Fed Chairman Bernanke). In the last projections made in June the Fed projected GDP for 2011 to be 2.7 to 2.9%.  In the 3rd quarter the YoY GDP came in at 2.5%.  The Unemployment rate projection wa 8.6-8.9%.  The current rate is 9.1%.  Finally Core PCE was estimated to be 1.5-1.8%. The actual Core PCE is currently at 1.6%.  So that is in line with the projections by the Fed.  The Feds expectations for 2012 as reported in June were more robust than what may be expected now.  The Fed has GDP growth of 3.3-3.7%, Unemployment at 7.8% to 8.2% and Core PCE at 1.4-2.0%.  The growth and employment projections are likely to be revised lower to more reflect the slower global growth outlook.

ADP Employment Adds 110K Jobs in October Posted: 02 Nov 2011 05:15 AM PDT Employment Change:  Survey: 100K    Actual: 110K    Prior: 91K     October vs. September 2011 Manufacturing: 11,663 vs 11,668 Level Change: -5 vs -7 %Manf. Jobs: 10.7% vs 10.7% Goods-Producing: 17,835 vs 17,834 Level Change: 1 vs 6 %Goods Produced: 16.4 vs 16.4 Service-Producing: 91,101 vs 91,011 Level Change: 90 vs 83 %Service Produced: 83.6 vs 83.6

Bank of Spain says mid and long term funding markets practically closed Posted: 02 Nov 2011 05:01 AM PDT As the year end approaches there tends to be extra tightness of credit being extended in the interbank market. The only way to break the logjam will be for the central banks to provide liquidity.

NY Morning Forex Commentary for November 2nd 2011 Posted: 02 Nov 2011 04:49 AM PDT

US Challenger Job Cuts Stronger at 12.6% vs. Prior of 211.5% Posted: 02 Nov 2011 04:33 AM PDT Challenger: Job cuts fell 63% in October to 42,759.

S&P says credit rating could being effected by EFSF expansion Posted: 02 Nov 2011 04:22 AM PDT This is congruent with other statements released earlier

German banking association says expects wide approval by private creditors for Greek debt haircut. Posted: 02 Nov 2011 03:19 AM PDT

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• German government spokesman says France/Germany determined with European partners
• EURUSD moves closer to October midpoint at 1.3695
• GBPUSD moves toward intraday resistance levels
• Moody’s expects US economy to grow modestly in 2012
• Bank of Canada Carney says there is considerable stimulus in Canada
• Weaker ISM tests market. Weak headline but….
• US Construction Spending and ISM Data All Lower
• EURUSD back up to 1.3650-55 area. Bulls and bears more balanced now it seems
• Early elections and referendum are to be discussed by the Greek cabinet
• Stocks open down 200-250 in first few minutes of trading
• Forex Traders Course: Today at 4:00PM Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell
• EU Van Rompuy says fully trust Greece will honour commitments
• EURUSD continues slide lower. 1.3603 is the next channel target
• Six Greek party members call for Papendreou to resign
• NY Morning Forex Commentary for Nov 1st 2011

German government spokesman says France/Germany determined with European partners Posted: 01 Nov 2011 07:39 AM PDT …that summit decisions will be adopted ASAP.

EURUSD moves closer to October midpoint at 1.3695 Posted: 01 Nov 2011 07:33 AM PDT The midpoint of the October range at the 1.3695 level is approaching and should provide some resistance/profit taking on the first test.  The support remains below at the 1.3650-56 area.  A move above the midpoint would target the 1.3705 level which is the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart.

GBPUSD moves toward intraday resistance levels Posted: 01 Nov 2011 07:18 AM PDT The GBPUSD has moved  off the lows and looks to test the intraday resistance levels against the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart and the 38.2% of the range today. Those levels come in at the 1.5963-66 area. On the hourly chart the price fell below the 38.2% of the move up from the October 7th low at the 1.5960 level earlier today. This level can be added to the resistance targets for the pair making 1.5960-66 resistance.  A move above these levels should solicit additional buying with the 200 hour MA at the 1.5978 level the next key target for the pair. A break above this level opens the door for further covering in the pair with 1.6000 the next target.

Moody’s expects US economy to grow modestly in 2012 Posted: 01 Nov 2011 07:09 AM PDT Major deviation from that path could have ratings implications

Bank of Canada Carney says there is considerable stimulus in Canada Posted: 01 Nov 2011 07:08 AM PDT Outlook as weakened since July Growth to slow through Mid 2012 and then pick up Makes no mention of stimulus withdrawal and says  the BoC will set monetary policy consistent with achieving inflation target

Weaker ISM tests market. Weak headline but…. Posted: 01 Nov 2011 07:03 AM PDT New Orders up to 52.4 from 49.6 Employment flat at 53.5 vs 53.8 Inventories fell to 46.7 from 52 Order Backlog up to 47.5 from 41.5 The headline is weaker but the pieces with inventories down make it not so bad.  The EURUSD fell on the news (around 0 pips but is near the midpoint again. The 1.3650-55 remains a key level today.

US Construction Spending and ISM Data All Lower Posted: 01 Nov 2011 07:02 AM PDT Construction Spending MoM:  Survey:  0.3%    Actual: 0.2%    Prior:  1.4%  Revised:  1.6% ISM Manufacturing:   Survey: 52.0    Actual: 50.8    Prior:  51.6 September vs August 2011 Prices Paid: 50.8 vs 51.6 Production:  50.1 vs 51.2 New Orders:   52.4 vs 49.6 Backlog of Orders:  47.5 vs 41.5 Inventory Change:  46.7 vs 52.0f Employment: 53.5 vs 53.8  ISM Prices Paid:   Survey: 55.0  Actual: 41.0   Prior:  56.0 Prices paid comes in significantly lower then we were expecting.

EURUSD back up to 1.3650-55 area. Bulls and bears more balanced now it seems Posted: 01 Nov 2011 06:45 AM PDT The EURUSD is back up testing the 1.3650-55 area. This was the lows from Mid October and is also the 38.2% of the NY move lower (see chart below). The low for the day, tested the channel trendline on the hourly chart.   The testing and the holding of this trendline seems to have balanced some of the bias among market traders (bulls and bears).  The EURUSD has moved from 1.41697 to 1.3607 so far this week (562 pips).  This action is ahead of FOMC, ECB and Unemployment on Friday.  Above 1.3655 next targets 1.3675 area (trendline on the 5 minute chart). A move above that could see a move toward the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.3712 area (moving down).

Early elections and referendum are to be discussed by the Greek cabinet Posted: 01 Nov 2011 06:37 AM PDT Greek’s Papendreuu calls emergency cabinet meeting at 1600 GMT

Stocks open down 200-250 in first few minutes of trading Posted: 01 Nov 2011 06:31 AM PDT Lots of red on the Big Board. Nasdaq down -80 points S&P down -28 points

Forex Traders Course: Today at 4:00PM Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell Posted: 01 Nov 2011 06:31 AM PDT Forex Traders Course: Today at 4:00PM Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell- Greg will be teaching another special class today. Be sure to attend. Register now here

EU Van Rompuy says fully trust Greece will honour commitments Posted: 01 Nov 2011 05:55 AM PDT Damage control is in full force as Van Rompuy weighs in.  He feels confident that Greece will honour commitments in relation to Euro area and the international community. The EURUSD has resistance at the 1.3652-55 now (lows from mid October).  On the downside, the 1.3603 is channel trendline support.

EURUSD continues slide lower. 1.3603 is the next channel target Posted: 01 Nov 2011 05:44 AM PDT The EURUSD has continued to slide in NY trade as Greek referendum threatens the Eurozone Greek rescue.  If the referendum vote is “No” a full Greek default cannot be ruled out.   The EURUSD is now trading below the lows from mid October (below 1.3652-55).  This is now topside resistance for the pair.  On the daily chart the next target for the pair comes in at the 1.3565 level which is the 61.8% of the October rally.   Before that level, the 1.3603 level on the hourly chart is channel trendline support (see chart below). A move below this line should not be ignored.

Six Greek party members call for Papendreou to resign Posted: 01 Nov 2011 05:42 AM PDT Majority falls to 151 from 153 today due to party resignations

NY Morning Forex Commentary for Nov 1st 2011 Posted: 01 Nov 2011 05:09 AM PDT

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