Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURGBP falls sharply. Breaks below the recent floor at the 0.8517 level
• GBPUSD extends range higher on a break above the 100 hour MA. Will momentum continue?
• GBPUSD stays between the “Goal Posts”. Range very narrow
• EURUSD choppy break.
• ECB considering loosening the collateral criteria for loans…EURUSD reacts voilently
• EURUSD in narrow range for the week
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-December.7.2011
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary for December 7th 2011
• The Early NY Review
• US Mortgage Applications rose 12.8% in the current month
• UK Industrial Production down 0.7% for October
• Italian Industrial Production
• Swiss Unemployment Rate
• 12-7 Economic Calendar
• Euro firmer in recent trading

EURGBP falls sharply. Breaks below the recent floor at the 0.8517 level Posted: 07 Dec 2011 07:04 AM PST The break in the GBPUSD higher has been aided by a sharp move lower in the EURGBP. The pair is currently breaking/testing a floor area at 0.8517 level. The low has reached 0.8509 and has bounced back toward the floor level.  The selling is being attributed to a large middle eastern seller.  Since the pair has been one way and fast, there can be a tendency to bounce – especially if the large seller is done selling. However, because the damage is likely spread around multiple dealers, rallies will likely be sold. Looking at the 5 minute chart below, I would look for sellers to re-enter around the 0.8534 level   This is the 38.2% of the last leg to the downside.

GBPUSD extends range higher on a break above the 100 hour MA. Will momentum continue? Posted: 07 Dec 2011 06:35 AM PST The GBPUSD broke higher above the 100 hour MA (blue line) and raced higher. The pair moved above the 1.5664 level which has been a floor/ceiling over the last 4 or 5 trading days.  The price is back below this level but remains above the 100 hour MA at the 1.5642 level. Traders who bought on the break will want to see the price move above and stay above the 1.5664 level. A move back below the 1.5642 level will not be encouraging. The current 76 pip trading range is still narrow for the pair for the day. There exists the potential for a range extension. Although the break is to the upside, this does not mean a reversal is not possible.   Markets are volatile and choppy. Anything can happen.

GBPUSD stays between the “Goal Posts”. Range very narrow Posted: 07 Dec 2011 06:29 AM PST The GBPUSD has been largely contained over the last few days by the 100 and 200 hour MAs. The pair tried to move below the 200 hour MA over the last 4 or 5 hours but that was rejected. So the pair extended up to the upper boundary agains the 100 hour MA. The range for the day is very narrow at around 54 pips. I would expect an extension outside the range at some point today and for a break of this stronghhold that the Goal Posts (as defined by the two moving averages) has hd on the pair.  Be aware. Be prepared.

EURUSD choppy break. Posted: 07 Dec 2011 06:10 AM PST The break to new lows for the day has been met with quick selling then quick buying as the trendline approached at the 1.3345 level.  The price is back above the 1.3358-61 level but remains below the 1.3383 level where the 200 hour MA is found.  The choppy action is not endearing to me. Risk is increased as buyers and sellers seem nervous.  Look for sellers against the 1.3383 level.  A move above the level would not be welcomed by the EURUSD bears.  On the downside the 1.3358/61 level returns as a level to eye.  A break has the same 1.3345, and then low for the week at 1.3335, to get through.

ECB considering loosening the collateral criteria for loans…EURUSD reacts voilently Posted: 07 Dec 2011 05:40 AM PST ….and also considering 2 year loans for banks. The action is in response to tighter credit conditions for banks.   IF banks do not lend to each other, the banks can not fund the assets they hold. The ECB is saying, bring me your collateral and I will give you money that the banks are not willing to give you.  Banks are being conservative/cautious/prudent in there lending given the uncertainty and risk.   The ECB is considering filling that void. The EURUSD rallied on headline. The move took the price quickly above the 200 hour MA but has since retreated below (at the 1.3383 level). Staying below this level will still be key for the bears to remain in charge. A move back above and the bullish/bearish situation is more balanced once again for the pair. A move below the 1.3358-61 level opens the door for a potentially further downside probe with the 1.3345 adn the low for the week at the 1.3332 the next targets.

EURUSD in narrow range for the week Posted: 07 Dec 2011 05:34 AM PST The current trading range for the week at nearly the half way point is 153 pips with a high of 1.3485 and a low of 1.3332. The lowest trading range for a week this year was 155 pips during the April 10th week. Unless this ia a record setting week, I would expect the range to be extended. Of course with the EU summit taking place on Thursday and Friday, there exists the ammunition to move outside the range. However, do not underestimate the potential today. From a technical perspective, the price has moved below the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart below).  This level comes in at the 1.3383 level. Staying below, keeps the bears in charge.  Further on the downside, there has been a floor at the 1.3361 level over the last few days of trading. In the last hour, the price dipped below to a low of 1.3358. The intial move was rejected and the price rebounded. A second test will be eyed more closely. A break will target the trendline  and then the low for the week. A move below the low opens the door for further selling pressure.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-December.7.2011 Posted: 07 Dec 2011 05:20 AM PST Good Morning: Market participants mostly remained on the sidelines as we await the scheduled ECB meeting along with a EU summit scheduled for tomorrow.  News from the ECB that dollar demand via the swap auction was higher than expected, took a lot of the wind out of the EUR/USD pair.  It seems that the banking sector is still struggling to meet it’s funding obligations. Yesterday’s 25 basis point drop by the Reserve Bank of Australiais the RBA’s attempt to keep the economic momentum in Austrailia moving forward. World equity markets are mostly higher-but Europe is showing signs of a small sell-off-and US Futures are  higher at this point. Gold, Silver and most metals are lower-while oil is also slightly lower.   HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

The NY Morning Forex Commentary for December 7th 2011 Posted: 07 Dec 2011 05:04 AM PST

The Early NY Review Posted: 07 Dec 2011 04:31 AM PST Stocks: DJ Futures:+42 Nasdaq:+6.8 S&P: +4.8 German Dax:14.68 (0.24%) UK FTSE: unc France Cac:16.01 (0.5%) Oil:-0.20 Gold: -2.5% Australia GDP was better at 1% vs 0.8% on QoQ. YoY rose by 2.5% vs 1.9%. Mining gains contributed Swiss Unemployment came in as expected at 3.1% UK Industrial Production fell -0.7% vs -0.3% expectations. Manufacturing Production fell -0.7% vs -0.3% expectations. German Industrial Production rose by 0.8% vs 0.3% expectations US Mortgage Applications rose by 12.8% On tap for today: 8:30 AM Feds Raskin speaks on data use. Should not be market moving As the market prepares for the EU summit, expect further comments 3:00 PM US Consumer Credit is expected to rise by 7B

US Mortgage Applications rose 12.8% in the current month Posted: 07 Dec 2011 04:21 AM PST The Purchase index rose 8.3% The Refinancing Index rose 15.3% 30 Year FRM : 4.18% vs 4.21% last week 15 Year FRM: 3.53% vs 3.57% last week.

UK Industrial Production down 0.7% for October Posted: 07 Dec 2011 01:32 AM PST A 0.3% decline was expected. Gbp/Usd is off abot 10 points to 1.5615 thus far.

Italian Industrial Production Posted: 07 Dec 2011 01:07 AM PST Italian Ind. Production for October declined 0.9%, a 0.3% decline was expected. Eur/Usd has come off 10 points to 1.3430 on news.

Swiss Unemployment Rate Posted: 06 Dec 2011 11:03 PM PST Swiss Nov. Unemployment Rate came in at 3.0%, better than the 3.1% expected. Not much affect on CHF as Usd/Chf trades at .9242 and Eur/Chf at 1.2428.

12-7 Economic Calendar Posted: 06 Dec 2011 08:57 PM PST

Euro firmer in recent trading Posted: 06 Dec 2011 06:28 PM PST The EUR has gotten a boost in recent trading with with Nikkei currently trading up 70.0 and comments made recently from the BOJ’s Ishida that the sovereign debt crisis in Europe is affecting Japan.  On an hourly bases it looks like the recent trend in the EUR/USD is upward with the pair currently testing yesterday’s high of 1.3428; the 100 hour moving average also comes in at this level. If resistance is found here we look back towards the 38.2% line as the target with the immediate bullish target being 1.34394.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EUs Van Rompuy says fast track amendments to EU rules could be reinforced by deeper adjustment to treaty
• GBPUSD moves back toward the days midpoint after finding support against the 200 hour MA
• EURCHF pounds against the days highs but finds profit takers on the first test
• AUDUSD at the midpoint of days range and struggles with direction
• USDJPY stays steady.
• SNB and BIS decline to comment on market talk that BIS is buying EURCHF
• GBPUSD tests the 200 hour MA. Stays between the “Goal Posts”
• S&P Kraemer says a downgrade of negative watch is no means certain
• Market talk of BIS bid in EURCHF/USDCHF
• Bank of Canada leaves rates unchanged
• S&P notes that crisis in EU has become a bigger near term threat
• Canada Building Permits Much Stronger at 11.9% vs 1.6% Expectations and Prior of -4.9%. Revision Also Stronger
• Canada Building Permits rise 11.9%.
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-December.6.2011
• EFSF credit rating may be cut by S&P: S&P reports

EUs Van Rompuy says fast track amendments to EU rules could be reinforced by deeper adjustment to treaty Posted: 06 Dec 2011 07:50 AM PST There is need to ensure bigger resources for IMF via bilateral loans Proposes possible review of EUR 500bln ceiling of Euro zone permanent ESM bailout fund ESM bailout fund should follow IMF practices and involve less unanimous decision making

GBPUSD moves back toward the days midpoint after finding support against the 200 hour MA Posted: 06 Dec 2011 07:29 AM PST The GBPUSD did bounce off of the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above) for the second time and the bounce has also moved above the broken trendline (see chart above) at the 1.5631 level (see prior post). The price remains contained by the 100 and 200 hour MAs (blue and green lines respectively) suggesting the market traders still struggle with the directional bias for the pair. Buyers are coming in on dips, and sellers are coming in on rallies.  Traders can continue to use the extremes as levels to lean against and define risk.  On breaks, I will be looking for momentum in the direction of the break. The 1.5558 level is the next downside target (61.8% in chart above). On the topside a move above the 100 hour MA (blue line) will target the successive highs (each lower) over the last 4 trading days.

EURCHF pounds against the days highs but finds profit takers on the first test Posted: 06 Dec 2011 07:22 AM PST The EURCHF worked its way to the high for the day but found willing profit takers on the first test. The price has tested the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart on 3 separate occasions. The last time was a failed break and this helped lead to the move back higher.  The bulls in the pair will need to have the price break above this level to increase the bullish bias.  The pair is up today on the back of weaker CPI and the potential for another intervention by the SNB.

AUDUSD at the midpoint of days range and struggles with direction Posted: 06 Dec 2011 07:01 AM PST The RBA cut rates by 25 basis points today and the price of the AUDUSD moved lower. Later it was boosted by better data out of Germany and an overall better tone in the EURUSD.  Now the price has moved to the midpoint of the days trading range at the 1.02119 level and looks for the direction.  The pair is down on the day. The price has also stayed below the 100 day MA over the last week of trading (blue line in the chart below). That level currently comes in at the 1.0300 level.   That keeps the bearish bias over the long term, but the market traders are still searching for momentum  to the downside. So far, that momentum has been limited. Looking at the hourly chart below, the lack of momentum is evident.  Over the last 4 or 5 days, the price has traded sideways with a low of 1.0149 and and high of 1.0328. The 100 HOUR MA comes in at the 1.0228 level (blue line in the chart below) currently and the price has moved above and below this level in the NY session. The traders are simply not sure. I will be looking for the market to make a break above the 1.0300 level or a break below the recent low at the 1.0149 level to cast the vote for the trader’s bias. With lower rates in Australia, one would expect a lower AUDUSD.  That is not happening which suggests that risk appetite remains in play and a possibility.  Nevertheless for me, the proof remains in the pudding and that includes a move back above the 1.0300 level (100 day MA).

USDJPY stays steady. Posted: 06 Dec 2011 06:48 AM PST The USDJPY has remained steady today with the 38.2% of the move up from the November 18th low to the November 29th high at the 77.62 level holding support. The 100 and 200 hour MA are converging 77.78 and 77.72  respectively.  A move above the 77.78 level or move below the 77.66 level should lead to further momentum in the direction of the break. There is rumblings that the JPY remains a “safe haven” currency. I am not so sure and I think the sideways action is saying the market does not know what to do with the pair.

SNB and BIS decline to comment on market talk that BIS is buying EURCHF Posted: 06 Dec 2011 06:39 AM PST The EURCHF remains below the earlier high for the day (off the weaker than expected CPI). That high came in at the 1.2416 level. The high in NY came in at the 1.24125 level so far.  A break of the 1.2416 level opens the upside for further upside momentum.

GBPUSD tests the 200 hour MA. Stays between the “Goal Posts” Posted: 06 Dec 2011 06:23 AM PST The GBPUSD has remained between the “Goal Posts” as defined by the 100 hour (blue line) and 200 hour (green line) MAs. The price is down testing the bottom goal post at the 1.5591 level. A move below should lead to further momentum to the downside. A holding of the line should lead to short covering as traders continue to trade the range and wait for the break.

S&P Kraemer says a downgrade of negative watch is no means certain Posted: 06 Dec 2011 06:08 AM PST He does also note however, that the challenges for the Eurozone are larger than the situation in the US Kraemer says the timing of the announcement was in reaction to the risk

Market talk of BIS bid in EURCHF/USDCHF Posted: 06 Dec 2011 06:07 AM PST The Bank of International Settlement is being touted as a bid in the EURCHF and USDCHF. Both pairs have moved higher in the last few minutes. The Swiss CPI data was disappointing today and this should get the attention of the SNB who is trying to stimulate demand and with it inflation.

Bank of Canada leaves rates unchanged Posted: 06 Dec 2011 06:00 AM PST 2nd half growth is stronger than expectations No suggestion of potential rate change CPI is slightly higher but expect that as food and energy prices fall and ongoing excess supply will soften inflation pressures. Below is the full statement from the BOC. http://www.bankofcanada.ca/2011/12/press-releases/fad-press-release-2011-12-06/ The USDCAD has fallen but remains above the 100 hour MA at the 1.0170 level.  This is the key level.

S&P notes that crisis in EU has become a bigger near term threat Posted: 06 Dec 2011 05:38 AM PST Crisis is one of governance and crisis manangement. They note that crisis has moved beyond periphery Crisis has spread from the EMU periphery to the core Policy response to stimulate demand now more limited. EU summit is an opportunity to break perception that policy response so far has been largely defensive. An unsuccessful summit could lead to another downward leg in the crisis The EFSF rating will likely be in line with the AAA ratings of the stongest members. The comments from S&P are putting pressure the EU to react and react strongly at their summit later this week. Any failure risks not only the rating decreases but also the obvious potential for higher interest rates – especially in the countries at risk.

Canada Building Permits Much Stronger at 11.9% vs 1.6% Expectations and Prior of -4.9%. Revision Also Stronger Posted: 06 Dec 2011 05:31 AM PST

Canada Building Permits rise 11.9%. Posted: 06 Dec 2011 05:30 AM PST This is much stronger than expectations of 1.6%. Last month showed a decline of -4.1%.  Residential permits fell by -0.1% while non residential surged by 32.8% Bank of Canada decision is next on tap at 9 AM. The USDCAD has had a modest reaction to the better than expected number with the USDCAD actually moving a touch higher (Cad weaker).   With the interest rate decision due at 9 AM the market seems to be waiting for the decision to determine the directional bias today.  The 100 hour MA on the USDCAD chart below comes in at the 1.01716 level. Staying above the  MA level after the decision keeps a  bullish bias for the pair. Moving below the level would give the pair a bearish bias.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-December.6.2011 Posted: 06 Dec 2011 05:28 AM PST Good Morning: Risk 0ff after yesterday’s late afternoon announcement by S&P that they are putting 17 European countries on a negative credit watch. This negative watch may lead to possible downgrades. In other S&P news-they have reaffirmed China’s Aa/A-1+ rating. S&P seems to be interested in politics again, after downgrading the US this summer.  S&P commented that the “continued disagreements among European policy makers” was a main reason for the downgrade warning.  Many feel that S&P should back off-as the downgrade watch just complicates solving the EU debt crisis. With the EU meeting for yet another summit in Brussels on Dec 8 and 9-analysts questioned the timing of the S&P move. Ahead of the summit-German Chancellor Merkel and French President Sarkozy will present a plan to rewrite the EU’s governing treaty to enforce tighter economic controls over member countries. The crisis has already led to bailouts for Greece,Ireland and Portugal-and it looks like Italy is next in line. World equity markets were mostly lower-but US futures are slightly higher. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

EFSF credit rating may be cut by S&P: S&P reports Posted: 06 Dec 2011 05:26 AM PST This again will be contigent on the action by the EU members during their summit later this week.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD tests the day’s high at 1.3485
• Sarkozy/Merkel announce proposal ideas
• Durable Goods orders were revised lower
• US Data Falls
• Forex Basics webinar TODAY: Get the Big Picture in Trading at 4:00 PM
• The Forex Week Ahead for December 5th Week
• NY Morning Forex Commentary for Dec 5th 2011
• US ISM and Factory Orders Data Due at 10AM
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-December.5.2011
• Stocks higher, Gold down, Sarkozy/Merkel meet, Italy new budget
• UK Services PMI
• Eurozone Final Services PMI
• Week ahead in Forex Trading with Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell 9:30 AM
• 12-5 Economic Calendar
• Hong Kong purchasing managers index 48.7 vs. a 49.0 reading in October.

EURUSD tests the day’s high at 1.3485 Posted: 05 Dec 2011 07:32 AM PST The Merkel/Sarkozy press conference gave the EURUSD a boost higher. The correction off the initial move higher retraced to the midpoint of the Friday/Monday range and the ability to hold the level has the pair back up testing the high at 1.3485. A move above this high is needed to propel the pair higher toward the Thursday hae at hte 1.3520 level. The 1.3546 was the high on Friday. This level tested resistance on the daily chart (see chart below).

Sarkozy/Merkel announce proposal ideas Posted: 05 Dec 2011 07:18 AM PST The EURUSD got a boost higher on the back of a joint plan by Germany’s Merkel and France’s Sarkozy. The plan will be sent to the EU’s Rompuy on Wednesday so it can be addressed at the EU leaders meeting on Friday. Highlights: The plan will involve a modification of EU treaty – ideally for all 27 members They propose automatic sanctions on deficits over 3% Agreed on private sector contributions in future bailouts They want a budget balancing rule across the Eurozone They would like the ESM brought forward to 2012 from 2013 Leaders will hold monthly summits in Brussels Eurobonds are not a solution to the crisis Summit on Thursday/Friday must gain credibility Debt limits are not possible in current treaty. They need that changed Merkel: Rejects Eurobonds  but ESM should make Eurozone sovereign debt a safe investment Sarkozy: Wants severe fiscal rules in all Euro zone countries Wants agreement to be concluded by March 2012 Voluntary Greek haircut was a one off for Greece ESM will be based on IMF methods. They will act like IMF in difficult cases. Looking on how to use EFSF resources with IMF They acknowledge that they may have less resources in the EFSF than they would like They will discuss whether the German/Franco proposal are for the top 17 or all 27 EU members

Durable Goods orders were revised lower Posted: 05 Dec 2011 07:08 AM PST The Durable Goods Orders were revise higher in the Factory Orders report.  The MoM headline number came in at -0.5% vs -0.7% originally reported. The Ex Transportation came in at +1.1% vs _0.7% last.

US Data Falls Posted: 05 Dec 2011 07:02 AM PST Manufacturing Composite:  Survey: 53.8   Actual: 52.0   Prior: 52.9 Factory Orders:    Survey: -0.3%   Actual: 0.4%   Prior: 0.3%   Revised: -0.1%

Forex Basics webinar TODAY: Get the Big Picture in Trading at 4:00 PM Posted: 05 Dec 2011 06:56 AM PST Forex Basics webinar TODAY: Get the Big Picture in Trading at 4:00 PM with Forex trainers Shawn Powell and Jason Galano Register now for the 4:00 PM Training Class

The Forex Week Ahead for December 5th Week Posted: 05 Dec 2011 06:28 AM PST The Forex Week Ahead (PDF)

NY Morning Forex Commentary for Dec 5th 2011 Posted: 05 Dec 2011 05:20 AM PST

US ISM and Factory Orders Data Due at 10AM Posted: 05 Dec 2011 05:13 AM PST

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-December.5.2011 Posted: 05 Dec 2011 05:00 AM PST Good Morning: The euro was stronger against the JPY and USD to start the week.  The Italian government approved a new deficit reduction plan ahead of this week’s European summit to discuss the Euro Zone’s sovereign debt issues.  The new plan will include new taxes on luxury items, delay in state employee’s retirement age, and a levy on first time home buyers. The Euro strength came on the heels of a proposal for ECB loans to be channeled through the IMF. The proposal is loaded with problems of it’s own.  Many feel that the IMF is just not big enough to sustain large financing for the Euro Zone.  Also, there is concern that members of the undeveloped member countries will feel that too much of the IMF’s funds and resources will be diverted to the Euro Zone. World equity markets are higher-as are US Futures. Oil is slightly higher-but Gold is lower. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Stocks higher, Gold down, Sarkozy/Merkel meet, Italy new budget Posted: 05 Dec 2011 04:23 AM PST S&P Futures: +14 DJ Futures: +125 Nasdaq:+24 Dax: +1.22% FTSE: +0.51% CAC: +1.21% Gold: -7.5 Oil: +0.64 They are calling this week a make or break week for the EURO.  The EU leaders will meet this week to talk about giving the EU more control over budgets.  In return there would be more bond market intervention.  Merkel and Sarkozy will meet prior to the meeting to discuss the ideas for discussion.  Meanwhile Italy’s Monti presented a new budget (30 billion cut).  A tax on luxury items,delayed retirement and a property levy on first homes are the main areas which will help the budget shortfall. Not included were  asset sales as a way to lower deficits.  This inclusion by Greece and in the past by Italy have simply been talk with little substance behind it.  It is tough to sell assets in this type of economic environment. US Factory Orders due out at 10 AM -0.2% expected vs +0.3% last month. Durable Goods, which were released a on November 23rd and showed a -0.7% decline (ex Trans +0.7) is part of that report and can be revised in this report.  Also at 10 AM ISM Non Manufacturing PMI is expected to come in at 53.6 vs 52.9.  Feds Evans speaks at 12:10

UK Services PMI Posted: 05 Dec 2011 01:35 AM PST UK Services PMI came in at 52.1, stronger than the 50.6 expected. Not much affect to the GBP as the currency had strengthened prior to release, possibly a leak of this data causing the pre-emptive move. Gbp/Usd currently trades at 1.5645.

Eurozone Final Services PMI Posted: 05 Dec 2011 01:03 AM PST E/Z Final Services PMI came in at 47.5, weaker than the 47.8 expected. Eur/Usd is off about 10 points to 1.3435.

Week ahead in Forex Trading with Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell 9:30 AM Posted: 04 Dec 2011 09:26 PM PST Week ahead in Forex Trading morning webinar with FXDD Chief Currency Analyst Greg Michalowski and Forex Trader Shawn Powell 9:30 AM Register now

12-5 Economic Calendar Posted: 04 Dec 2011 08:55 PM PST

Hong Kong purchasing managers index 48.7 vs. a 49.0 reading in October. Posted: 04 Dec 2011 06:54 PM PST This is the fourth consecutive month that conditions have deteriorated in Hong Kong; fell at the third sharpest rate in 2 1/2 years. Output prices  have reduced in an effort to thwart a contraction in demand and stimulate sales as input prices continued to rise. HSBC Economist, Donna Kwok, commented ” While business activity in Hong Kong is still slowing, it hasn’t collapsed”.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Fed’s Plosser on the Wires
• Fitch Has No Plans to Downgrade Spain
• IMF Issues Statements on Euro Crisis

Fed’s Plosser on the Wires Posted: 02 Dec 2011 09:22 AM PST Says: Rate path would allow FOMC to communicate more clearly Fed should publish path of interest rates ‘not privy’ to discussion on swap rate cuts ‘Labor market is in fact healing’ Labor market ‘not as dire’ as many feared Economy continuing at ‘moderate slog’ No ‘magic bullet’ for Europe ‘No evidence’ U.S. firms have funding problems

Fitch Has No Plans to Downgrade Spain Posted: 02 Dec 2011 08:34 AM PST

IMF Issues Statements on Euro Crisis Posted: 02 Dec 2011 08:33 AM PST Says: IMF says it will need ‘more resources’ if Euro crisis worsens Bilateral loans would come from members central banks

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Mexico Central Bank Keeps Overnight Rate Unchanged at 4.5%
• Unemployment Level Drops to 8.6%, Jobless Claims Weaker Then Expectations
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-December.2.2011
• US Nonfarm Payrolls Data Due at 8:30AM
• UK Construction PMI
• Merkel; Euro crisis can’t be resolved overnight
• 12-2 Economic Calendar
• usd/hkd testing the 23.6%
• usd/sgd 200 MV continue to support the pair.
• Euro continues to edge higher
• Japanese Fin. Minister Azumi speaks in Tokyo
• Japanese capital spending -9.8%; worse than expected.
• Friday Wrap up Forex webinar at 11:00 AM with Shawn Powell and Jason Galano
• Swiss Government Considering Negative Interest Rates

Mexico Central Bank Keeps Overnight Rate Unchanged at 4.5% Posted: 02 Dec 2011 07:02 AM PST

Unemployment Level Drops to 8.6%, Jobless Claims Weaker Then Expectations Posted: 02 Dec 2011 05:31 AM PST Change in Nonfarm Payrolls:   Survey:  125K     Actual:  120K    Prior:  80K      Revision: 100K Change in Private Payrolls:  Survey: 150K    Actual: 140K     Prior:  104K     Revised: 117K Change in Manufacturing Payrolls:  Survey: 9K   Actual:  2K   Prior:  5K     Revised: 6K Unemployment Rate:  Survey:  9.0%     Actual:  8.6%     Prior:  9.0%

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-December.2.2011 Posted: 02 Dec 2011 05:27 AM PST Good Morning: Many traders stayed on the sidelines ahead of this morning’s US employment data. In Euro Zone news- German Chancellor Merkel commented that joint Euro Bonds are are not the way to solve the debt crisis.  She also agreed that the ECB should not be the lender of last resort for the Euro Zone. Chancellor Merkel stated that  the crisis will take years to clean up and get the region’s finances back on track. Continued talks between the ECB and IMF will hopefully result in some shared responsibility by both parties. Merkel and French President Sarkozy will meet ahead of the European summit next week-as these 2 countries have the most to lose from a Euro breakup-or any disconnect in the Euro Zone.  This morning’s Us employment data is expected to have NFP increase by 125K-but many are calling for over 200K.  These additions will unlikely put a dent the overall unemployment picture. HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

US Nonfarm Payrolls Data Due at 8:30AM Posted: 02 Dec 2011 04:49 AM PST

UK Construction PMI Posted: 02 Dec 2011 01:32 AM PST UK Construction PMI came in at 52.3, stronger than the 52.1 expected. Gbp/Usd unaffected by news, trading either side of 1.5680.

Merkel; Euro crisis can’t be resolved overnight Posted: 02 Dec 2011 12:12 AM PST * compares crisis fight like a marathon * crisis is one of debt, not confidence * much has been achieved in fighting crisis roots

12-2 Economic Calendar Posted: 01 Dec 2011 08:45 PM PST

usd/hkd testing the 23.6% Posted: 01 Dec 2011 06:01 PM PST usd/hkd testing the 23.6% on this daily chart.

usd/sgd 200 MV continue to support the pair. Posted: 01 Dec 2011 05:59 PM PST usd/sgd 200 moving average continue to support the pair.

Euro continues to edge higher Posted: 01 Dec 2011 04:28 PM PST It seems that investors woes have been subdued (for now) after the world’s major central banks agreed to offer cheap dollar loans for European banks down on their luck. This move has also decreased the cost of interbank lending for the first time since July 22nd. The recent firmness is the Euro seems to have been caused by relatively successful Spanish and French debt auctions, with the EUR/USD reaching a high of 1.3521 following the auctions. Currently the pair is testing some upward hourly trend line support as we wait for the Nikkei to open in a little over thirty minutes (looks to open flat). Tonight may be relatively quiet with the U.S. non-farm payroll number out tomorrow morning.

Japanese Fin. Minister Azumi speaks in Tokyo Posted: 01 Dec 2011 04:09 PM PST Declines to comment on intervention. Q3 capital spending fell 9.8% from a year earlier. He will take action against speculative moves. Japanese banks are not having trouble obtaining dollars. There’s no change in Japan’s support to Europe. State of Japanese economy requires seamless measures.

Japanese capital spending -9.8%; worse than expected. Posted: 01 Dec 2011 03:52 PM PST Monetary base (y/y) was 19.5% vs. a 17.7% survey and 17.0% prior reading.

Friday Wrap up Forex webinar at 11:00 AM with Shawn Powell and Jason Galano Posted: 01 Dec 2011 01:59 PM PST Friday Wrap up Forex webinar at 11:00 AM with Shawn Powell and Jason Galano.  Joim us for the last webinar of the week as we discuss the outcome of the US Employment report and the next week of trading.  Register now

Swiss Government Considering Negative Interest Rates Posted: 01 Dec 2011 09:34 AM PST Swiss government could tax offshore deposits to weaken Franc EUR/CHF and USD/CHF higher on the news.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• ISM, Construction Spending All Come In Stronger
• Fed’s Bullard on the Wires
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-December.1.2011
• US Construction Spending, ISM Figures Due at 10AM
• US Jobless Claims Have Surprise Rise, Revisions Also Worse
• US Jobless Claims & Continuing Claims Data Due at 8:30AM
• BoE’s King; spiral facing banks looks like a systemic crisis
• Fitch’s Riley; French rating at risk if crisis intensifies
• UK Manufacturing PMI
• Swiss SVME PMI
• Draghi says ECB bond interventions can only be limited
• Swiss GDP up 0.2% q/q, as expected
• 12-1 Economic Calendar
• China HSBC manufacturing PMI 47.7 for November.
• usd/cnh slowly building an uptrend

ISM, Construction Spending All Come In Stronger Posted: 01 Dec 2011 07:03 AM PST Construction Spending MoM:  Survey:  0.3%    Actual: 0.8%    Prior:  0.2%  ISM Manufacturing:   Survey: 51.8    Actual: 52.7    Prior:  50.8 November vs October 2011 Prices Paid:  45.0 vs 41.0 Production:  56.6 vs 50.1 New Orders: 56.7 vs 52.4 Backlog of Orders: 45.0 vs 47.5  Inventory Change: 48.3 vs 46.7 Employment:  51.8 vs 53.5  ISM Prices Paid:   Survey: 45.0  Actual: 45.0    Prior:  41.0

Fed’s Bullard on the Wires Posted: 01 Dec 2011 06:11 AM PST Says He supports central banks ‘swap arrangement’ He supported Bernanke on dollar swaps ‘Prudent’ to ‘bolster’ position via swaps So far we are not as bad as 2008-2009 Liquidity facilities could be reopened if needed Bernanke has been ‘very innovative’ in policy Europe unlikely to be solved by ‘silver bullet’ Europe crisis wont ‘go away very quickly’ Europe crisis about excessive government borrowing ‘Notion’ that ECB can run to rescue

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-December.1.2011 Posted: 01 Dec 2011 05:46 AM PST Good Morning: The euro picked up against the USD and JPY-after Spain and France had good bond auctions.  The euro also showed strength after six central banks acted together to cut the borrowing costs of USD.    Spain sold 3.75 billion euros of bonds-which was the maximum target of 5 year notes-with a yield of 5.544% compared to 4.848% at the last auction on Nov.3. France sold  1.57 billion euros of 10 year bonds at 3.18%-slightly lower than the 3.22% at the Nov.3 auction. Comments from ECB President Draghi describing the role of the ECB, and that the ECB will be willing to do more-if policy makers do there job, and get their act together. The continued sovereign debt crisis in Europe will be a main focus of the markets.  The action by the 6 central banks yesterday was positively embraced by investors.  The fact that this action was needed-shows how dire the bank funding situation is. Jobless claims were higher-up 6K to 402K. Remember-tomorrow is the US employment data report. Non Farm Payrolls  are expected to be up 120K-and the Unemployment rate should stay at 9%. US Futures are slightly lower Gold is up-Oil is down. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

US Construction Spending, ISM Figures Due at 10AM Posted: 01 Dec 2011 05:36 AM PST

US Jobless Claims Have Surprise Rise, Revisions Also Worse Posted: 01 Dec 2011 05:31 AM PST Jobless Claims:  Survey:  390K    Actual: 402K   Prior: 393K    Revised:  396K    Continuing Claims:  Survey: 3650K    Actual:  3740K    Prior: 3691K  Revised: 3705K

US Jobless Claims & Continuing Claims Data Due at 8:30AM Posted: 01 Dec 2011 04:10 AM PST

BoE’s King; spiral facing banks looks like a systemic crisis Posted: 01 Dec 2011 02:41 AM PST * liquidity only provides short term relief; crisis is one of solvency, not liquidity * gov’ts must confront causes of problems; only Euroarea gov’ts can solve crisis * resolving wider problems beyond UK authority

Fitch’s Riley; French rating at risk if crisis intensifies Posted: 01 Dec 2011 02:19 AM PST * French gov’t has capacity to support banks * banks don’t need help at current bond prices

UK Manufacturing PMI Posted: 01 Dec 2011 01:32 AM PST UK Manufacturing PMI came in at 47.6, stronger than the 47.1 expected. Gbp/Usd ran up to 1.5690 prior to release of number and has not gained since. The pair currently resides at 1.5686.

Swiss SVME PMI Posted: 01 Dec 2011 12:39 AM PST Swiss SVME PMI came in at 44.8, weaker than the 46.6 expected. Usd/Chf trades at .9127 and eur/Chf at 1.2258, unaffected by number as eyes are still set on market commentary from eurozone economic leaders.

Draghi says ECB bond interventions can only be limited Posted: 01 Dec 2011 12:30 AM PST This ccomment sent Eur/Usd down 30 points thus far to 1.3420.

Swiss GDP up 0.2% q/q, as expected Posted: 30 Nov 2011 10:54 PM PST Eur/Chf off about 15 points since release, to 1.2293.

12-1 Economic Calendar Posted: 30 Nov 2011 08:45 PM PST

China HSBC manufacturing PMI 47.7 for November. Posted: 30 Nov 2011 06:30 PM PST

usd/cnh slowly building an uptrend Posted: 30 Nov 2011 05:20 PM PST usd/cnh slowly building an uptrend after breaking through that downward trend-line.

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