Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne Sees Positive Signs in the UK Economy
• Canada Ivey PMI Comes In Higher at 66.5
• All Greek Banks Holding Eligible Debt Expected to Take Part in Greek Bond Swap according to Government Sources
• Irish Finance Ministry Declines to Comment on March 31 Payment
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.6.2012
• EURUSD falls on the back of PSI deal
• Canada Ivey PMI Data Due at 10AM
• Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy Lauds ECB Measures In Support of Spanish Economy
• Article in German National Neswpaper Der Spiegel Calls Eurozone Central Bank System “Massively Imbalanced”
• RBA Leaves Rates Unchanged @4.25%
• China Sets Yuan Reference Rate @ 6.3141
• oil/usd rally cut short due to new resisitance line.
• usd/hkd finally rallying after breaking through this trend-line
• Aussie Q4 Current Account Balance / Net Exports of GDP
• UK BRC Sales

UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne Sees Positive Signs in the UK Economy Posted: 06 Mar 2012 07:06 AM PST UK Chancellor of the Exchequer George Osborne Sees Positive Signs in the UK Economy

Canada Ivey PMI Comes In Higher at 66.5 Posted: 06 Mar 2012 07:00 AM PST  Canada Ivey PMI Comes In Higher at 66.5 Ivey PMI:  Survey: 62.0  Actual:  66.5 Prior: 64.1  Feb 12′ vs. Jan 12′ 3-Month Avg.:  64.7 vs 62.5 Employment: 58.8 vs 55.2 Inventory: 54.9 vs 57.0 Supplier Delivery: 48.8 vs 41.9 Prices: 73.1 vs 65.0

All Greek Banks Holding Eligible Debt Expected to Take Part in Greek Bond Swap according to Government Sources Posted: 06 Mar 2012 06:45 AM PST All Greek Banks Holding Eligible Debt Expected to Take Part in Greek Bond Swap according to Government Sources

Irish Finance Ministry Declines to Comment on March 31 Payment Posted: 06 Mar 2012 06:28 AM PST Irish Finance Ministry Declines to Comment on March 31 Payment Unlikely to get Anglo-Irish note accord by end-March May issue bond May be allowed delay 4Bln Anglo Irish cash payment

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.6.2012 Posted: 06 Mar 2012 05:19 AM PST Good Morning: The Reserve Bank of Australia left their key interest rates unchanged at 4.25%.  The RBA stressed that there could be a call for lower rates-if the global economy continues to slow.  They are also concerned about the slowdown in Chinese growth-and will monitor this very closely. Data out of the EU was not very pretty.  Q4 GDP was .3% lower.  Exports dropped .4%, after a 1.4% increase for Q3.  Consumer spending was down .4%.  It looks like Europe is in it’s 2nd recession in the past 3 years-as the Greek issue takes down the entire region. The IIF (International Institute of Finance), stated that the disorderly Greek bailout could cost up to 1 trillion euros. In US political news-today is “Super Tuesday” for the Republican Presidential nomination.  11 states and 400 delegates will be up for grabs today.  The nominee will need a total of 1144 delegates to win the Republican Presidental nomination.  Mitt Romney is looking to gain a distinct advantage, so that he can focus on winning the election in November. World equity markets are lower-as are US Futures. Commodity markets are also lower across the board. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

EURUSD falls on the back of PSI deal Posted: 06 Mar 2012 04:49 AM PST The EURUSD is under pressure today on the back of talk out of Greece that a Private Sector Involvement deal might be delayed. There was also a source comment that said the participation might be 75-80%. This would mean that the Greeks would trigger collective action clause, forcing bond holders to take haircuts on their debt. This may trigger a default on Credit Derivative Swaps. The waters get more muddy in Greece.   GDP out of EU was also released and showed that GDP fell by -0.3% in the 4Q (QoQ). This was as expected. From a technical perspective, yesterday the EURUSD held the 38.2% of the move up from the 2012 low at the 1.3156 level and this level will be eyed as topside resistance today.  The 38.2% of the last leg down on the trend today comes in at the 1.3159 level As a result this area (between 1.3156-59) will be eyed as topside resistance for the pair in early NY trading. .

Canada Ivey PMI Data Due at 10AM Posted: 06 Mar 2012 04:47 AM PST

Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy Lauds ECB Measures In Support of Spanish Economy Posted: 06 Mar 2012 04:32 AM PST Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy Lauds ECB Measures In Support of Spanish Economy

Article in German National Neswpaper Der Spiegel Calls Eurozone Central Bank System “Massively Imbalanced” Posted: 06 Mar 2012 04:20 AM PST Article in German National Neswpaper Der Spiegel Calls Eurozone Central Bank System “Massively Imbalanced”

RBA Leaves Rates Unchanged @4.25% Posted: 05 Mar 2012 07:30 PM PST World economy to grow below trend pace this year. Europe to stay potential  source of shock for some time. Monetary policy ‘remains appropriate.’ Inflation outlook provided scope for easing if needed. China growth moderated as expected. Labor conditions softened in 2011. Moderate Asia inflation has allowed regional policy easing. Continue to monitor economic, financial conditions. Acute financial pressures on EU banks alleviated considerably. Borrowers interest rates close to medium term average.

China Sets Yuan Reference Rate @ 6.3141 Posted: 05 Mar 2012 07:01 PM PST

oil/usd rally cut short due to new resisitance line. Posted: 05 Mar 2012 04:59 PM PST oil/usd rally was cut short due to this trend-line now providing resistance for the pair.

usd/hkd finally rallying after breaking through this trend-line Posted: 05 Mar 2012 04:49 PM PST usd/hkd finally rallying after breaking through this trend-line.

Aussie Q4 Current Account Balance / Net Exports of GDP Posted: 05 Mar 2012 04:43 PM PST Australia’s Current Account Deficit increased, despite a better than expected export reading for the 4th quarter. The markets had a muted reaction as risk continues to regain a light bid. Current Account Balance – Survey:-8050M   Actual:-8347M   Prior:-5637M Net Exports of GDP – Survey:0.0   Actual:0.3   Prior:-0.6

UK BRC Sales Posted: 05 Mar 2012 04:14 PM PST The UK BRC Same Store Sales reading for February was -0.3% on a year over year basis, the same as the prior month. The market has shrugged off the release as it seems to be regaining some of the risk bid that was lost yesterday to begin the trading week.

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• US Factory Orders and Non-Manufacturing Composite Both Better Than Expectations, ISM Highest Since Feb 2011
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.5.2012
• US Factory Orders and ISM Manufacturing Index Data Due at 10AM
• USD/CAD testing 200 hour moving average
• EUR/USD rebounding after finding daily support.
• ECB’s Gonzalez-Paramo
• Eurozone Retail Sales (Jan) 0.3% vs. -0.1% expected.
• Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (m/m) -8.2 vs. -5.0 expected.
• UK Services PMI (Feb) 53.8 vs. 54.9 expected (56.0 prior).
• Eurozone Services PMI (Feb) 48.8 vs 49.4 expected (50.4 prior).
• German Services PMI (Feb) 52.8 vs. 52.6 expected (53.7 prior).
• Italian Service PMI (Feb) 44.1 vs. 45.2 expected (44.8 prior).
• Swiss Retail Sales (Jan) 4.4% vs. 0.6% prior reading.
• Spanish Services PMI (Feb) 41.9 (46.1 prior).
• 3-5 Calender

US Factory Orders and Non-Manufacturing Composite Both Better Than Expectations, ISM Highest Since Feb 2011 Posted: 05 Mar 2012 07:00 AM PST ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite:  Survey: 56.2   Actual: 57.3  Prior: 56.8    Business Activity   62.6 vs 59.5  Backlog of Orders *  53.0 vs 49.5   Inventory Change *  53.5 vs 47.0  Employment   55.7 vs 57.4       Factory Orders:    Survey: -1.5%   Actual: -1.0%   Prior: 1.1%   Revised: 1.4%

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.5.2012 Posted: 05 Mar 2012 05:35 AM PST Good Morning: In a surprise comment by the Chinese Premiere Wen Jiabao-China is lowering their growth target for 2012 to 7.5% from 8%.  Growth in China was at 9.2% in 2011, and 10.4% in 2010.  They have also set a 4% target on inflation.  With the euro zone crisis keeping global economies slow, the world’s 2nd largest economy expects their export sector to slow even further. On the heels of these comments-Asian equity markets dropped, European  stocks are lower, as are US futures. Gold, Silver and most commodity markets dropped-as China is the largest user of raw materials. WTI is mostly flat-while Brent is a bit higher. Should we speak about The Euro Zone- sure why not! New reports show that if Greece fails, it could cost upwards of 1 trillion euros-WOW! Spanish regions (Catalonia and Andalusia) balk at new 2012 deficit targets-no surprise there. German Finance officials let it be know at last Friday’s EU Summit that they have run out of patience. Oh Well- and it is only Monday. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

US Factory Orders and ISM Manufacturing Index Data Due at 10AM Posted: 05 Mar 2012 04:35 AM PST

USD/CAD testing 200 hour moving average Posted: 05 Mar 2012 02:49 AM PST The pair has traded continually higher through out the night as we have seen risk aversion in the market correlating with lower equities in Asia, Europe, and the Dow currently poised to open lower as well. Currently the USD/CAD is testing the 200 hour moving average with a full hourly retracement at .99845 being the next bullish target.

EUR/USD rebounding after finding daily support. Posted: 05 Mar 2012 02:20 AM PST We saw chopping trading early in the night until the pair hit a low of 1.3159 following a worse than expected final services PMI out of the Eurozone; this level being the 38.2% fibo line on the daily chart. Since then, we have seen some rebounding following a better retail sales number; testing the 100 bar moving average on the 15 minute chart. If we run into resistance here we look back to 1.3159 at the target; 1.3211/1.3222 to the topside.

ECB’s Gonzalez-Paramo Posted: 05 Mar 2012 02:07 AM PST Eurozone is not in crisis. Anecdotal evidence suggests banks are using the 3 yr LTRO to lend more. New collateral rules are not fragmenting the Euro area. Euro bonds are not an option for now.

Eurozone Retail Sales (Jan) 0.3% vs. -0.1% expected. Posted: 05 Mar 2012 02:02 AM PST

Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence (m/m) -8.2 vs. -5.0 expected. Posted: 05 Mar 2012 01:33 AM PST

UK Services PMI (Feb) 53.8 vs. 54.9 expected (56.0 prior). Posted: 05 Mar 2012 01:31 AM PST

Eurozone Services PMI (Feb) 48.8 vs 49.4 expected (50.4 prior). Posted: 05 Mar 2012 01:01 AM PST Euro is trading slightly lower following the worse than expected release.

German Services PMI (Feb) 52.8 vs. 52.6 expected (53.7 prior). Posted: 05 Mar 2012 12:57 AM PST

Italian Service PMI (Feb) 44.1 vs. 45.2 expected (44.8 prior). Posted: 05 Mar 2012 12:56 AM PST

Swiss Retail Sales (Jan) 4.4% vs. 0.6% prior reading. Posted: 05 Mar 2012 12:21 AM PST

Spanish Services PMI (Feb) 41.9 (46.1 prior). Posted: 05 Mar 2012 12:19 AM PST

3-5 Calender Posted: 04 Mar 2012 08:55 PM PST

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• Fed’s Bullard on the Wires
• IMF on the Wires Regarding Irelands Future
• IMF says Ireland return to debt market in 2013 uncertain

Fed’s Bullard on the Wires Posted: 02 Mar 2012 09:57 AM PST Says: U.S. Economic data ‘better than expected’ Fed never takes anything ‘off the table’ on policy The probability of a serious meltdown in Europe has weakened The fed rate will rely strongly on economic performance U.S. still faces risks from Europe crisis $4 dollars for gasoline not slowing consumers down $5 dollars for gasoline would change priority of many drivers Progress shown in Europe on “fiscal pact” U.S. could weather a recession in Europe Does not want to ‘reinflate’ U.S. housing bubble

IMF on the Wires Regarding Irelands Future Posted: 02 Mar 2012 08:05 AM PST Beaumont says: Risks on high side for Ireland Estimates Ireland needs 14 billion in market funding in 2013 ‘Sufficient’ Irish market return in 2013 uncertain Irish debt sustainability ‘remains fragile’ Irish economy faces great struggles ‘Lot of consensus’ among troika on Anglo Irish notes Anticipates no impact from treaty campaign on program Urges enhanced support for Ireland from Europe

IMF says Ireland return to debt market in 2013 uncertain Posted: 02 Mar 2012 08:01 AM PST

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• Is it enough? EURUSD bounces off support area and tests topside trendline/Fibo level
• GBPUSD reaches the 200 hour MA target.
• Correction in EURUSD stays below the 38.2% retracement
• USDJPY makes new highs but backs off
• GBPUSD moves back below the 200 day MA/100 hour MA today
• EURUSD sellers keep the pressure on
• A touch better GDP not helping the USDCAD (at least initially)
• Canada GDP Grows to 0.4%
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.2.2012
• Spain say negative GDP may continue into Q3 this year
• Canada GDP Data Due at 8:30AM
• Trend day down (following the non trend day yesterday) as the technicals take charge
• Italy’s 2011 GDP rises 0.4% vs. 0.3% expected by economists
• Eurozone PPI up 0.7% from prior month vs. 0.6% expected
• UK Construction PMI at 54.3 vs. 51.3 expected

Is it enough? EURUSD bounces off support area and tests topside trendline/Fibo level Posted: 02 Mar 2012 07:21 AM PST The EURUSD has bounce after falling 5 pips short of the bottom channel trendline at the 1.3180 level. The price has rebounded to the topside trendline and the 38.2% retracement of the last major move down for the pair. That level comes in at the 1.3116 level. The range for the day has extended to 146 pips which is above the 120 pip average over the last 20 days of trading. This comes after the Non-trending day yesterday which saw a low to high trading range of 75 pips. Non trending, transistions into trending and that is what we have seen today. The question now is “Is it enough?”.  In order to end the down trend (at least intraday), a move above the trendline is needed. That would open the door for a test of the most recent high at the 1.3225 and above that the 100 bar MA (blue line in the chart below) at the 1.3240 level currently (and moving lower).  Failure to move above the targets, keeps the longs nervous and the sellers happy.

GBPUSD reaches the 200 hour MA target. Posted: 02 Mar 2012 07:09 AM PST The GBPUSD has made it to the next target support level against the 200 hour MA at the 1.5833 level. (see prior post). This level should slow the move lower as profit takers enter.  When the 100 and 200 hour MA are at a large distance apart, the market traders tend to use the 200 bar MA as a profit taking level – at least on the first test.  If the market is unsure of the directional bias, a move back toward the 100 hour MA could occur (I call it trading between the goal posts).    A move below the level has additon support at the 1.58196 level. On the topside, traders will eye the 1.58599 level (see chart above) as resistance now.

Correction in EURUSD stays below the 38.2% retracement Posted: 02 Mar 2012 06:41 AM PST The EURUSD moved to a highe of 1.32258, just short of the 1.32273 retracement target (see prior post by clicking here) . Selling against the level  shows the shorts are still in control and the pair is currently testing the lows for the trading day (see chart below). On a break, look for the bottom channel trendline to solicit profit taking buying.  That level comes in at the 1..3185 level currently.

USDJPY makes new highs but backs off Posted: 02 Mar 2012 06:27 AM PST The USDJPY has pushed to new highs (highest level since May 31, 2011) but has backed off for the second time today. This is not a good sign – at least for the short term – and as a result, a test of the upward sloping trendline at the 81.41 level might be in order. The 81.69 level is the 61.8% of the move down from the 2011 high price, so there is another reason to sell/take profit at this level/area.

GBPUSD moves back below the 200 day MA/100 hour MA today Posted: 02 Mar 2012 06:13 AM PST The move back below the 200 day MA (green line in the chart above) at the 1.5900 level and the 100 hour MA(blue line in the chart below)  at the 1.5893 has the bulls/buyers reevaluating their postion. Stops were triggered on the breaks and the price decline has pushed the price to the 38.2% of the move up from the February 23rd low to the high reached on Feb 29th at 1.58599.  The decline has slowed at the level, but  the correction action has been limited.  So sellers remain in control.  The next key target for the pair is the 200 hour MA at the 1.5833 level.  I would expect buyers /profit takers against this level on the first test. On the topside, staying below the 38.2% of the last leg to the downside in the 5 minute chart below comes in at 1.58828. Sellers looking for continued downside momentum would like to see the price stay below this level.  A move above the 50% at 1.5893 and the 200 day MA at the 1.5900 level would not be welcomed and would put into question the move lower today.

EURUSD sellers keep the pressure on Posted: 02 Mar 2012 05:47 AM PST The ERUUSD is looking toward a new low. Should the low be broken yet again, the next target would come in not far away at the 1.3195 area. This is the channel support trendline in the hourly chart above. The EURUSD has been marching down today after the non trending day yesterday. Each move to the downside, has held the 38.2% corrective level. This has kept the bears/sellers in charge. The current 38.2% of the last leg down comes in at the 1.32273 level. The 50%  comes in at the 1.32343. These levels will be eyed for clues for a potential bottom. A move above each would be indicative of some profit taking  and should lead to further corrective momentum. The 100 bar MA on the chart above would be a potential target if the aforementioned levels can be breached (at 1.3256 currently – moving down).

A touch better GDP not helping the USDCAD (at least initially) Posted: 02 Mar 2012 05:38 AM PST The MoM GDP came in at 0.4% vs 0.3%. The YoY Annualized came in as expected. The data has not helped the CAD $ as US dollar buying seems to be more the theme for the day. The USDCAD has been moving to the downside as oil price increases helped the loonie. On Wednesday, the price fell below the low for the month at the 0.9905 level.   The 0.9891 level was the low going back to the end of October.  A move back above these levels will be eyed as a clue that the downside momentum has failed. Staying below that level however, keeps the bears in charge with a target at the bottom channel trendline at the 0.9793 price (currently) the next target.

Canada GDP Grows to 0.4% Posted: 02 Mar 2012 05:31 AM PST Domestic Product (MoM):   Survey: 0.3%  Actual:  0.4%   Prior: -0.1   Gross Domestic Product (YoY):  Survey: 1.9%  Actual: 1.8%   Prior: 3.5%  Revised:  4.2

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.2.2012 Posted: 02 Mar 2012 05:29 AM PST Good Morning: The Euro continues to be under pressure.  The EUR/USD pair was around 1.33 when German retail sales data hit the wires and disappointed. The number came out at -1.6% when analysts expected a .3% rise.  This data will not be  good for Q1 growth-and it looks like the German population is still very weary of the regions problems-and their shopping habits are showing this to be true. The unemployment situation In Spain seems to be getting worse-February jobless rose 2.4%, which is truly an awful number, and kept the Euro under pressure. Asian equity markets dropped,along with Europe.  US Futures are also lower at this time. Gold, Silver and most metals are lower this morning too. Oil is trading  at just over $108/bbl. HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

Spain say negative GDP may continue into Q3 this year Posted: 02 Mar 2012 05:15 AM PST Exports are to slow to 3.4% growth from 9% last year. Unemployment to 24.3% by 2012 Spending limit at 118.6 bln Euros. This is 4.7% down from 2011 Is is possible to expect growth in 2012? HMMM Today Spain announced that 112,269 people registered for jobless benefits.  This brought the total to 4.71 million.  The estimate was for a rise of 80,000.  Half the young people are out of work.  The estimated cuts of 4.7% from spending  will likely be needed to make up fo  the revenue shortfall from taxes.

Canada GDP Data Due at 8:30AM Posted: 02 Mar 2012 04:51 AM PST

Trend day down (following the non trend day yesterday) as the technicals take charge Posted: 02 Mar 2012 04:44 AM PST The non trending day yesterday in the EURUSD, has led to a trend move down today. In Spain, the ranks of the Unemployed rose by 112.3K vs expectations of 80K. Germany showed Retail Sales fell by a larger than expected -1.6% (vs +0.5% exp)but the prior month was revised sharply higher at +0.1% vs -1.4%. EU PPi rose by a greater than expected 0.7% MoM vs expectation of 0.5%. Merkel commented that the European crisis is not over. The EU leaders are meeting and talking about pro-growth strategy while at the same time signing a budget controlling fiscal pact. Perhaps most damaging was done technically. The price of the EURUSD traded in a narrow 74 pip trading range for the entire day yesterday. In the asian session, the price fell below the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart, then started a series of legs to the downside. Corrective moves on the move, held 38.2% retracement levels – keeping the seller in charge. The price also fell below the 100 day MA at the 1.3288 level which also corresponded with the 50% of the move up from the Feb 16th low. This key support area found buyers yesterday (low reached 1.3281), but not today as selling intensified. In the UK, higher PMI Construction kept the GBP relatively supported. However, in early NY trading the price fell below the 100 hour MA at 1.5900 and then the 200 day MA at 1.5893, triggering stops to the downside. The USDCHF moved sharply higher after its quiet day yesterday. The 0.91825 level is an important target on the upside as both the 100 day MA and 38.2% retracement of the move down from the 2011 high are found at the level. Canada GDP will be released at 8:30 with expectations for a 0.3% gain in Dec. The 4Q is expected to show a 1.8% annualized increase (vs 3.5% in 3Q). The EU leaders are continuing to meet in Brussels and comments are expected throughout the day.

Italy’s 2011 GDP rises 0.4% vs. 0.3% expected by economists Posted: 02 Mar 2012 02:05 AM PST Eur/Usd trades at 1.3257.

Eurozone PPI up 0.7% from prior month vs. 0.6% expected Posted: 02 Mar 2012 02:02 AM PST Eur/Usd trades at 1.3255, up about 5 points since release.

UK Construction PMI at 54.3 vs. 51.3 expected Posted: 02 Mar 2012 01:33 AM PST Gbp/Usd has not reacted with much of a boost, as the pair is up 5 pips since release of number to 1.5920.

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• Bernake says US on unsustainable fiscal path
• Feds Raskin says Fed policy appropriate
• Risk pair selling short lived after worse than expected ISM data
• Worse than expected ISM sends risk pairs down
• ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending Drop, Prices Paid Higher
• USDCHF holds against the 38.2% retracement level and rotates toward the 200 hr MA
• EURUSD swings back higher after failing on break below key support
• GBPUSD swings between support and resistance
• Netherlands De Jager Speaks to Reporters
• The EURUSD battles at key levels
• US ISM Numbers Along with Construction Spending Due at 10AM
• US Jobless Claims Improve as Personal Income and Spending Drop
• Canadian Current Account (BOP), Industrial Product Price MoM, and Raw Materials Price Index
• EURUSD in narrow trading range as data awaited
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.1.2012

Bernake says US on unsustainable fiscal path Posted: 01 Mar 2012 07:35 AM PST Growth is not as strong as he would like Improvement in unemployment also not as quick as he would like. Fed does not see that recession has permanently affected growth potential of the US economy

Feds Raskin says Fed policy appropriate Posted: 01 Mar 2012 07:31 AM PST Headwinds to economies expansion only easing gradually Gasoline prices likely to have limited impact on inflation Relatively encouraging economic news Economic expansion likely to remain modest Meanwhile Bernanke testifies in Washington again.  Mirrors text of speech yesterday.  He is starting Q and A session.

Risk pair selling short lived after worse than expected ISM data Posted: 01 Mar 2012 07:20 AM PST The selling in the risk pairs following the worse than expected ISM data was short lived and the pairs like the AUDUSD, NZDUSD and EURUSD has reached either new day highs and/or new NY highs.

Worse than expected ISM sends risk pairs down Posted: 01 Mar 2012 07:03 AM PST The EURUSDs first reaction is to the downside on the worse than expected ISM data. The 1.33097 level (38.2% of the days range), should be resistance now. A break of the 1.3294 and 1.3289 will be eyed.  A move below these levels should solicit more downside pressure.

ISM Manufacturing and Construction Spending Drop, Prices Paid Higher Posted: 01 Mar 2012 07:00 AM PST ISM Manufacturing:  Survey: 54.8   Actual: 52.4   Prior: 54.1 Feb vs Jan 12′ Breakdown Production: 55.3 vs 55.7 New Orders: 54.9 vs 57.6 Employment: 53.2 vs 54.3  Inventories: 49.5 vs 49.5 Prices:  61.5 vs 55.5 Order Backlogs: 52.0  vs 52.5 ISM Prices Paid:  Survey: 58.0   Actual: 61.5   Prior: 55.5 Construction Spending: Survey: 1.0%   Actual: -0.1%  Prior:  1.5%   Revised: 1.4%   USD/JPY moves to the downside a bit.

USDCHF holds against the 38.2% retracement level and rotates toward the 200 hr MA Posted: 01 Mar 2012 06:43 AM PST The USDCHF was able to push above the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above) at the 0.9038 level and move to the next key target – the 38.2% of the move down from the Feb 16th high. The price held this resistance target at the 0.9071 level (high reached 0.90707) and has since moved back lower. The 200 hour MA at the 0.9038 level will be eyed by traders for support. A break and the low for the day at the 0.9020 will be the next target, with further potential for a test of the 100 hour MA at the 0.8982 a possibility.  Look for buyers against the 200 hour MA on the 1st test with stops below.

EURUSD swings back higher after failing on break below key support Posted: 01 Mar 2012 06:27 AM PST The market seems nervous and that was evident at the key support level below. The pair had good support against the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the Feb 16th low at the 1.32896 level and the 200 day MA at the 1.3294 level. When the price fell below these two key support levels, it should have solicited momentum technical sellers, but after dipping at 1.3281, the selling dried up and the price rotated back higher. The correction higher has now moved to the 38.2% of the days range  and is currently looking to move above this level at the 1.3311.  Key support still remains against the 1.3289-94 levels and market tension still remains high, but with the downside tested and holding, the war continues with the bulls winning the last battle.

GBPUSD swings between support and resistance Posted: 01 Mar 2012 06:07 AM PST The 200 day MA held support at the end of yesterday’s trading day and in the morning London trading hours. The rally back to the upside off the key level pushed against the topside resistance trendline. (see hourly chart below). Now the price is between the key support (200 day MA) and the topside resistance and searching for a direction bias  for the day. Looking at the 5 minute chart below, the price has just held support against the 100 bar MA level (near the 38.2% of the days range at the 1.59347 level).  Traders may be using this level as support for the time being.  With the daily range narrow at 65 pips (vs 106 pip 20 day average), there is room to extend the range today.  Traders may eye these shorter term MA levels for bias clues with the price inbetween support and resistance on the hourly and daily charts acting as profit taking levels until broken.

Netherlands De Jager Speaks to Reporters Posted: 01 Mar 2012 06:02 AM PST Says: Markets: confidence returning slowly Not sure that Greece has done enough Cannot make a definite conclusion on Greece today May not agree on final bailout today Merkel also with a few comments here saying the fiscal pact is a ‘huge step’ toward stability and the EU leaders ‘intensively’ are going to be discussing Greek growth.

The EURUSD battles at key levels Posted: 01 Mar 2012 05:46 AM PST The 38.2% of the move up from Feb 16th comes in at the 1.3289 level. The 100 day MA comes in at the 1.3294. The price is stalling at these two levels looking for the push one way or the other.

US ISM Numbers Along with Construction Spending Due at 10AM Posted: 01 Mar 2012 05:40 AM PST

US Jobless Claims Improve as Personal Income and Spending Drop Posted: 01 Mar 2012 05:31 AM PST Jobless Claims:  Survey:  355K    Actual: 351K   Prior: 351K    Revised:  353K    Continuing Claims:  Survey: 3418K    Actual:  3402K    Prior: 3392K   Revised: 3404K Personal Income:   Survey: 0.4%     Actual:  0.3%    Prior:  0.5%    Personal Spending:   Survey: 0.4%    Actual: 0.2%  Prior: 0.0%  PCE Deflator:    Survey: 2.3%  Actual:  2.4%   Prior: 2.4%  Revsied: 2.5% PCE Core(MoM):     Survey: 0.2%   Actual:  0.2%    Prior: 0.2%   Revsied:  0.1% PCE Core(YoY):    Survey:  1.8%   Actual:  1.9%   Prior:  1.8%   Revsied:  1.9%   US jobless claims staying at best levels since March 7, 2008. EUR/USD drops slightly on the news.

Canadian Current Account (BOP), Industrial Product Price MoM, and Raw Materials Price Index Posted: 01 Mar 2012 05:30 AM PST Canadian Current Account (BOP), Industrial Product Price MoM, and Raw Materials Price Index Current Account (BOP) Survey: -9.6B, Actual:-10.3, Prior:-12.1B, Revised:-12.3 Industrial Product Price MoM Survey:0.3%, Actual:0.3%, Prior:-0.7%, Revised:-0.9% Raw Materials Price Index Survey: 0.5%, Actual:0.1%, Prior:-2.4%, Revised:-2.5%

EURUSD in narrow trading range as data awaited Posted: 01 Mar 2012 05:29 AM PST The EURUSD is in a narrow trading range today.  The low for the day was taken out in early NY trade but just barely. The low in London was 1.3304. The low in NY came in at 1.3300.  The low to high trading range is 56 pips which is much lower than the 20 day average of 121 pips.  However, the ranges have been trending to the downside of late.  The high 20 day average range in 2011 reached 146 pips.  The low range for a specific 24 hour day came in at 54 pips on the 1st trading day of the year (a semi holiday).  Today’s low of 56 pips equaled the other low for the year which occurred on February 22nd.  I would expect an extension of the range at some point today. The price on the hourly chart is between support and resistance. On the downside, the 38.2% of the move up from the Feb 16th low comes in at the 1.32896 level. The bullish run since mid February has seen the price move from 1.2973 to a double top at the 1.3484 level.  A move below this Fibonacci level will help confirm further selling pressure in the pair.  ON the topside the price is below the 200 hour MA at the  1.3339 level currently after yesterdays sharp profit taking fall. Also of note is the support against the 100 day MA. The key MA comes in at the 1.3294 level today. A move below this level is also needed to entice further selling pressure. Traders will likely continue to use the 38.2%  at 1.32895 as a backstop to buy the market with a stop below the level.  The burden of proof is for the sellers to overtake the buyers. Yesterday, the sellers/profit takers took control, but until the price can breach that 38.2% level, they have not proved the sell off was nothing more than profit taking. Show me the sellinga and the ability to extend below the 38.2% and the selling pressure should intensify.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.1.2012 Posted: 01 Mar 2012 05:20 AM PST Good Morning: Yesterday’s comments from Fed Chairman Bernanke took the steam out of any additional Fed stimulus in the short end.  The marketplace still seems to feel that the Fed will eventually do a 3rd round of their QE program-but no indication was given of when any additional QE would take place.  As the jobs markets tries to do a little better-the  Fed will monitor the situation, and act accordingly. In other news-The Bank of England’s Miles sees  the UK QE program as very worthwhile.  The QE helped keep Gilt yields lower, along with the UK’s safe haven status, kept the nation’s economy from teetering. Asian equity markets were lower, while European equity markets are higher-along with US Futures. Oil is higher-over $107/bbl.  Gold is also inching up. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610