Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Sept 23 2009 Forex Market Update
• EURUSD holds the support, but intraday resistance at 1.4793
• BOE Barker making comments on the newswires from speech
• USDJPY testing resistance at 100 hour MA at 91.37
• EURUSD is looking to move back below the old 2009 high from last week
• Eurozone July Industrial New Orders
• Bank of England’s MPC Meeting Minutes
• Eurozone PMI
• German Flash PMI
• French PMI
• French Consumer Spending and Business Confidence
• Australia’s Treasury Secretary Henry on the Wires
• Bank of Canada’s Governor Carney on the Wires
• NZD Gdp q/q came out better then expected at 0.1

Sept 23 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 23 Sep 2009 07:13 AM PDT New Video Pending

EURUSD holds the support, but intraday resistance at 1.4793 Posted: 23 Sep 2009 05:59 AM PDT The 1.4766 support has held again (low reached 1.4769), but there is upside resistance at the 1.4793 level to get through for the short term bulls.  This level corresponds to the 100 bar moving average on the 5 minute chart.  The close from yesterday was also at the 1.4791 level.  Short term, the downside seems to be favored as long as the price can remain below these levels.

BOE Barker making comments on the newswires from speech Posted: 23 Sep 2009 05:28 AM PDT  U.K. INFLATION TENDING TO BE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED  THERE IS RISK PACE OF U.K. RECOVERY MAY FALTER  UNCLEAR IF U.K. ECONOMY IMPROVEMENT TO BE KEPT UP  U.K. HOUSING MARKET STRONGER, CONFIDENCE IMPROVED  MPC AWARE OF CONSUMER GEARING IN ITS RATES POLICY U.K. CORPORATE GEARING BELOW LATE 1980S AVERAGE  U.K. STOCK PRICES NOT OUT OF LINE WITH PAST AVERAGE  U.K. JOBLESS TO RISE, ADDING TO HOUSEHOLD PRESSURE  THERE IS EVIDENCE OF POSITIVE QE IMPACT IN U.K.  PREMATURE U.K. RATE INCREASE MAY RISK RECOVERY  U.K. RATE NEEDS TO BE SET TO SUSTAIN CONFIDENCE  PROBABLE FINANCIAL INFLOWS FALL, IMPROVING DEFICIT  IMPORTANT FOR CLEAR PLAN ON U.K. BUDGET DEFICIT Comments are more or less in line, however, inflation concern with keeping rates low may not be all that friendly longer term.  The GBPUSD has dipped a little off the comments but support remains above the 100 bar MA at the 1.6402 level currently.

USDJPY testing resistance at 100 hour MA at 91.37 Posted: 23 Sep 2009 04:25 AM PDT The USDJPY is testing the 100 hour MA at the 91.37 level. Look for resistance at this level at least initially.  The market moved back below the 100 hour MA yesterday on it’s way to the low in early trade today at the 90.48 level.  A break above this key level will target the low from July at the 91.72 level. The 61.8% retracement of the move down also comes in at this area.  On the downside, the 200 hour MA comes in at the 91.12 level.  Traders who short against the 91.37 level will like to get confirmation to the downside on a break below this level. If the level can hold, it is likely the price will look to take out the resistance at the 100 hour MA this NY morning.  Watch the breadth of the correction.  Other support comes in at the 90.91 area where the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is currently found (green and blue line in the 5 minute chart above).

EURUSD is looking to move back below the old 2009 high from last week Posted: 23 Sep 2009 04:06 AM PDT The 1.4766 level was the old 2009 high from September 17th.  The price dipped to a low of 1.4770 in recent trade after reaching a high price of 1.4842 overnight.   As per our Evening Commentary last night, the 1.4866 level was the next target upside once 1.4825 was breached.  The didn’t quite get there but the selling is indicative that the sledding is indeed tough once again on any rallies.  Yesterday the close was at 1.4791.  The 1.4801 level is where the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is located.  The upside should find resistance against these levels.  On the downside a break of the 1.4766 level should lead to some further selling pressure with the 1.4727 area the next key support level.

Eurozone July Industrial New Orders Posted: 23 Sep 2009 02:03 AM PDT Industrial New Orders for the Eurozone in July were slightly better than expected. Industrial New Orders SA (MoM) - Survey: 2.0%   Actual: 2.6   Prior: 3.1% Industrial New Orders SA (YoY) - Survey: -25.9%   Actual: -24.3   Prior: -25.1% The EUR, as well as the rest of the market, showed a limited reaction the release.

Bank of England’s MPC Meeting Minutes Posted: 23 Sep 2009 01:44 AM PDT The Bank of England released the minutes from their September 10th MPC meeting, which left bank rates steady at 0.50%. Details from the meeting are as follows: Voted 9-0 to keep Asset Purchase Facility at 175B pounds. Inflation to be volatile. Both members King and Miles believe that larger easing measures are justified. Short-term downside economic risks lessened since their August report. MPC doves believe that no major news undermined the case for change in quantitative easing program. Economic slack is still unlikely to be shrinking. Large measure of spare capacity in economy even with positive Q3 GDP. Unemployment will continue to rise. A rise in asset prices could mark the start of upward inflation spiral. Data suggests that an upward revision in Q2 GDP is likely. Financial market news may boost nominal spending. Equity and housing market recovery may boost credit supply. Global data has been stronger than expected.

Eurozone PMI Posted: 23 Sep 2009 01:05 AM PDT The Eurozone’s Purchasing Manager’s Index for the month of July came in slightly lower than expected. The details are as follows: PMI Manufacturing - Survey: 49.7   Actual: 49.0   Prior: 48.2 PMI Services - Survey: 50.5   Actual: 50.6   Prior: 49.9 PMI Composite - Survey: 51.3   Actual: 50.8   Prior: 50.4

German Flash PMI Posted: 23 Sep 2009 12:30 AM PDT Germany’s Flash Manufacturing PMI for August came in at 49.6; worse than its forecast of 50.8 and prior reading of 49.2. The Flash Services PMI reading was 52.2 versus its forecast of 54 and prior release of 53.8. The market showed limited reaction to this release.

French PMI Posted: 23 Sep 2009 12:06 AM PDT France’s Purchasing Manager’s Index for September beat both its forecast and previous reading. This was the highest manufacturing reading in 19 months and highest services reading in 17 months.  The releases are as follows: PMI Manufacturing - Survey: 51.4   Actual: 52.5   Prior: 50.8 PMI Services - Survey: 50.2   Actual: 52.2   Prior: 49.3

French Consumer Spending and Business Confidence Posted: 22 Sep 2009 11:54 PM PDT French Consumer Spending for August was worse than both its forecast and previous release and Business Confidence for September came in better than expected. The details of the release are as follows: Consumer Spending (MoM) - Survey: 0.3%   Actual: -1.0%   Prior: 1.4% Consumer Spending (YoY) - Survey: 1.0%   Actual: -1.3%   Prior: 1.2% Business Confidence Indicator - Survey: 81   Actual: 85  Prior: 78 Own-Company Production Outlook - Survey: -36   Actual: -16   Prior: -40 The market had a limited reaction to this release.

Australia’s Treasury Secretary Henry on the Wires Posted: 22 Sep 2009 10:06 PM PDT Australian Treasury Secretary Henry believes that the global downturn is likely less severe than originally thought; he sees signs that the global economy is recovering. In addition he also made these comments: The jobless rate will not reach its forecasted peak. There are several significant challenged for the economy. Key risk is income growth weakness. Income growth is expected to be very weak in 2009-10. The outlook of business investment is very uncertain. Asian trading partners bounced back in Q2 09.

Bank of Canada’s Governor Carney on the Wires Posted: 22 Sep 2009 08:47 PM PDT Governor Carney of the Bank of Canada commented that we have a “way to go” before we see true growth in the domestic economy and that it will take time before unemployment falls. He also made these additional comments: It’s too early to say if we are seeing self-sustaining private sector growth in the economy. The US will have an ‘uneven” recovery of the next 18 months. The “speed limit” of the US economy is lower that it has been in the past. Canadian exports are being hurt by the US economy.

NZD Gdp q/q came out better then expected at 0.1 Posted: 22 Sep 2009 03:47 PM PDT NZD Gdp q/q came out at 0.1 better then  expected which was forecasted at -0.2%. NZD Gbp y/y came out at -2.1% better then expected which was forecasted at -2.6% Nzd/Usd rallied 35 pips right after the number to a high of 0.7230 from 0.7195

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Sept 22 2009 Forex Market Update
• GBPUSD eyeing the 100 hour MA at the 1.6249
• EURUSD finding profit takers/short term bears against the 1.4825
• Canada retails sales much weaker than expected.
• USDJPY testing 100 hour MA as well. Level comes in at 91.33
• GBPUSD tests 100 hour MA at 1.6349
• FXDD Beta Test for Online Training, Wednesday Sept 23rd 4pm
• EURUSD makes a new move highs. Support at 1.4766 area now
• Italian Unemployment Rate
• Swiss Trade Balance
• Swiss SECO Economic Forecasts
• USD Weakness Moving Markets Higher
• AUD/USD Tests 200Hr on Kiwi Strength
• NZD Moves Up on Current Account Balance
• Sept 21 2009 Forex Evening Report

Sept 22 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 22 Sep 2009 07:01 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. New highs in the EURUSD. New lows in the USDCHF. GBPUSD rebounds to key resistance and USDJPY reaches a vortex.

GBPUSD eyeing the 100 hour MA at the 1.6249 Posted: 22 Sep 2009 06:59 AM PDT The last 4 hours has seen a hard test of the 1.6249 level in the GBPUSD.  The price has not been able  to move above level today and there is additional resistance at the 1.6365.  Nevertheless a break above  should lead to higher levels in the GBPUSD  with the next target at 1.6395 and then 1.6437.

EURUSD finding profit takers/short term bears against the 1.4825 Posted: 22 Sep 2009 06:52 AM PDT The high from last September came in at 1.4825. The high today reached 1.4820.  The high on this last move higher took the EURUSD up to the 1.4815 level.   Clearly, the market is using the level as a profit taking level or a level to short against.  A break above will look to target the next old high at the 1.4866 level.  On the downside, the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at the 1.4775 level.  The 38.2% of the days range remains at 1.4763.   These are the support levesl to eye.  The EURUSD has been above the 100 bar moving average since 11 AM NY time yesterday. Dips remain fairly shallow today. The momentum to the upside is slowed. However, I still need to see the price dip below the 100 bar MA (and the 1.4766 old high from last week) to confirm a top may be in place.

Canada retails sales much weaker than expected. Posted: 22 Sep 2009 05:35 AM PDT The Canada Retail Sales came in at -0.6% and the ex Autos came in at -0.8%. Both were much weaker than expected (+0.7% and +0.1% were the expectations).  The fall is being attributed to a fall in gasoline sales as prices declined.   Gasoline sales were down 3.4%. The weaker number has led to a surge in the USDCAD to a high of 1.0715 so far. The move pushed the price back above the 100 hour MA at 1.0698 level. This level should provide support now. If the price dips below, it is dollar weakness taking charge again.

USDJPY testing 100 hour MA as well. Level comes in at 91.33 Posted: 22 Sep 2009 05:30 AM PDT The USDJPY has fallen with the dollar today.  The price has tested the 100 hour moving average at the 91.34 level and the 200 hour moving average at the 91.22 level.  There is also an old trendline that was broken at the level which comes in at the 91.30 level.  Finally, the midpoint of the move up from the low at 90.12 to the high at 92.52 comes in at the 91.32 level. Needless to say we seem to be at the vortex of the USDJPY chart at the 91.22 to 91.34 level in the pair.    On the topside today, look for resistance at the 91.49 level initially where the 100 bar MA and the 38.2% of the days range comes in. Above that is the 91.72 level. This was the July low which was taken out last week and not surpassed until yesterdays correction higher.  On the downside a break of the 91.22 level next targets 91.02 where the 61.8% of the move higher comes in along with low levels from Friday’s trade are found.  See chart above.

GBPUSD tests 100 hour MA at 1.6349 Posted: 22 Sep 2009 05:12 AM PDT The GBPUSD is up testing the 100 hour MA at the 1.6349 level.  The high today reached a level of 1.6349.  Above this key level is the 1.6365 price which is the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the September 11th high of 1.6741 to the September 21 low of 1.6133.    A move above these levels today should solicit additional buying interest that targets the 1.6437 level where prior low from last week and the midpoint of the move down is located (see chart above).   On the downside, watch for support at the 1.6306 to 1.6317 level and below that level is 1.6292 where the 38.2% of the days range is found along with a rising 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart.  The price dipped below the 100 bar MA in the London session, but was not able to fall below the 200 bar MA (green line in the chart above).

FXDD Beta Test for Online Training, Wednesday Sept 23rd 4pm Posted: 22 Sep 2009 05:10 AM PDT We are doing a Beta-test of our online training this Wednesday, September 23rd at 4pm. Details and class link are as follows. Go to https://fxdd.webex.com/fxdd/k2/j.php?ED=111557987&UID=1023081057&RT=MiMxMQ%3D%3D&FM=1 and register.

EURUSD makes a new move highs. Support at 1.4766 area now Posted: 22 Sep 2009 04:22 AM PDT The EURUSD soared to new highs not seen since September 23rd, 2008.  The high reached 1.4820.  The next historic high came in on September 22nd 2008 at 1.4866. This would be the next target.  Overall, the market is simply stepping up and stepping up.    The move higher today took out the high from last week at 1.4766.  The correction off  that high came down to the 1.4611 level which was a 61.8% retracement of the move up the prior week.  From there, the upside move was restarted.  Longer term the EURUSD has moved up from a low of 1.4191 since September 1st.  For today, look for support against the old high at the 1.4766 level.  At the area is also the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the lows today.  That level comes in at the 1.4763.    Below that level is the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at 1.4757 (see chart above), and moving higher. The price has been above the 5 minute MA since 10:40 yesterday NY morning. On the topside,  be on alert for another move above 1.4800.  There could be some stops triggered again.  Above that resistance at 1.4814 and the 1.4825 level of course.   The 1.4866 level becomes the next target level. One characteristic of a trend market up like we are seeing is the consistent visions of lower values.  When it does not happen, traders wonder why and sell more. When it does not fall, they wonder why again.  Then when a correction comes, like we experienced yesterday, the move lower tends to be shallow.  Then the process starts all over again  That is what we are seeing in this move up from the 1.4191 low. Be aware.

Italian Unemployment Rate Posted: 22 Sep 2009 01:01 AM PDT Italy’s Unemployment Rate for August was 7.4%; better than its forecast of 7.7% but higher than its previous release of 7.3%. The market shows limited reaction to the release.

Swiss Trade Balance Posted: 21 Sep 2009 11:19 PM PDT Switzerland’s Trade Balance for August was 1.79B versus it’s prior release of 2.35B. The details of the release are as follows: Exports (MoM) - Actual: 2.0%   Prior: 4.1% Imports (MoM) - Actual: -2.5%   Prior: -1.7% The CHF caught a light bid on this release.

Swiss SECO Economic Forecasts Posted: 21 Sep 2009 10:55 PM PDT The Swiss Economic Ministry released the following forecasts: Swiss see 2009 GDP down 1.7% vs. down 2.7% in June forecast. Forecast 2010 GDP to rise 0.4% vs. 0.4% fall in June. 2010 jobless rate at 5.2% vs. its 5.5% change in June forecast. 2009 jobless rate is at 3.8%, unchaged vs. it’s June forecast. 2009 CPI falling 0.4% vs. 0.5% fall in June. 2010 CPI rising 0.9%, unchanged vs. June forecast. Stated that the recession slowed down in Q2, see rebound in H2 2010. The market had a limited reaction to the release and the CHF trades off session lows.

USD Weakness Moving Markets Higher Posted: 21 Sep 2009 07:05 PM PDT Oil, gold, equities and equity futures are all moving higher on USD weakness across the board in a thin market lacking Tokyo’s participation. For the Kiwi in particular we have seen new 2009 highs on the back of better than expected Current Account figures.

AUD/USD Tests 200Hr on Kiwi Strength Posted: 21 Sep 2009 04:23 PM PDT The Aussie which has struggled against the USD to start the week, has received a bid early in Asian trading, being dragged up by better than expected economic statistics from New Zealand. The AUD/USD has hit the 200 hr moving average which we will note as resistance in what is a very thin Asian session on a Japanese holiday week. We will watch for Asian equities to lead the markets today.

NZD Moves Up on Current Account Balance Posted: 21 Sep 2009 04:14 PM PDT The 2nd quarter Current Account Balance in New Zealand came in much better than expected at +124M versus the estimate of a -1.98B decline. The prior months reading was also revised better. This in conjunction with the Account Deficit to GDP ratio also better than expected (-5.9% vs. -7.4%,) got the Kiwi moving across the board, most notably against the AUD and USD. AUD/NZD has moved to multi-week lows as noted on the chart below and we will look for some support at the late August lows at 1.2120.

Sept 21 2009 Forex Evening Report Posted: 21 Sep 2009 01:25 PM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. Watch the evening report for clues into tonight’s trading.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• GBPUSD falls through key support at 1.6317 and does not stop.
• EURUSD tests trendline resistance and falls. Good support at 1.4700 and the 1.4670 area
• Sept 18 2009 Forex Market Update
• GBPUSD holds 1.6317 level and then the 100 bar MA on the bounce. HMMM.
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.18.2009
• USDJPYs moving averages converging. Decision time ahead?
• USDCHF tests upside resistance and moves back down overnight
• GBPUSD continues down overnight but finds some support
• EURUSD falls and rebounds. Early NY buys again. Tests 1.4719 level.
• UK Net borrowing & Preliminary M4 money supply
• Eurozone current account
• Sterling trades through last weeks low
• German PPI
• BOJ September monthly report; raises economy assessment
• 9-18 Economic Calendar

GBPUSD falls through key support at 1.6317 and does not stop. Posted: 18 Sep 2009 07:07 AM PDT As per a prior post, the 1.6317 level is a key level for me today.  The price held the level early on, and bounced up to the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.6381 level (high reached 1.6374).  The price has since moved back down and has broken through this key level.   The 1.6300 level is now being broken. Look for rebounds to find sellers against the 1.6317 level now.

EURUSD tests trendline resistance and falls. Good support at 1.4700 and the 1.4670 area Posted: 18 Sep 2009 06:54 AM PDT The market tested the top trendline off the hourly chart at the 1.4735 level (high reached 1.4736) and has moved back down. The 1.4719 level remains a key level (high from December 2008 spike). Below that is the 1.4760 level where the 100 hour moving average and the 38.2% retracement support is currently found. Interim support at 1.4701 where the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is found.

Sept 18 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 18 Sep 2009 06:30 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

GBPUSD holds 1.6317 level and then the 100 bar MA on the bounce. HMMM. Posted: 18 Sep 2009 06:00 AM PDT The GBPUSD corrected down to 1.6317 support level as per the prior post and bounced (low was 1.6318). This raises the level of importance for the price.  On the topside the correction moved back up to the 100 bar MA at the 1.6349 level.  This also raises the level of importance for this technical level.   So the battle lines are drawn. A move above or below the levels should lead to further momentum in the direction of the break.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.18.2009 Posted: 18 Sep 2009 05:56 AM PDT Good Morning: The GBP dropped as the health of Lloyd’s Bank  sent concerns thru the financial sector.  The GBP stayed low as the UK posted it’s biggest budget deficit since 1993, as tax revenues fell, and jobless benefits costs rose. Equity markets were mostly lower, and metals fell as concerns that the global economies will not grow fast enough to keep up with  current prices. US Futures are higher this morning. Oil:$72.05                           Gold:$1015.00 No major data due out today. HAVE A GREAT DAY-GREAST WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

USDJPYs moving averages converging. Decision time ahead? Posted: 18 Sep 2009 05:53 AM PDT The USDJPY remains in between the “goal posts”.  The pair ventured above the 200 hour moving average at one point but lost upside interest.  The current 200 hour MA comes 91.34.  The 100 hour moving average comes in at the 90.98. When moving averages converge, the market tends to have to make a decision.  Does it want to go higher or lower.  Also, if moving average hold the ranges like it has for the last 24 hours, a break SHOULD lead to a move in the direction of the break.

USDCHF tests upside resistance and moves back down overnight Posted: 18 Sep 2009 05:42 AM PDT Also as outlined in the evening report, the USDCHF had channel support going into the new trading day today. On the upside was the 1.0315 resistance, the 100 hour MA and the top trendline of the channel.  The market first tested the 1.0315 level  The high reached 1.0317 and backed down to 1.0294.  From there the price moved through the level and next tested the 100 hour MA and trendline. The price moved briefly above the trendline, but failed when momentum could not be maintained. When the market does not do what it is supposed to do, get out.  This started the move back down and has now broken back through the 1.0315 level.  For today, the story remains the same.  The price has resistance at 1.0315 and then the 100 hour MA/trendline which are currently at the 1.0333 and 1.0337 levels respectively (blue and red trendline in the chart above).  Above that is the all important 1.0368 price which corresponds to the Dec 29 2008 low price (the last low price of signficance prior to the break lower this week).  Watch these steps on the topside. On the downside, the 1.0375 level and the channel trendline comes in currently at the 1.0264 level.  Look for support against these levels.

GBPUSD continues down overnight but finds some support Posted: 18 Sep 2009 05:01 AM PDT In yesterday’s evening commentary (click here to view the report) and during our Live Beta show, we talked to the 5 minute chart on the GBPUSD.  The 1.6433 level was a key support level for the pair on the shorter term chart. The level was tested 4 or 5 times over the tradig on the 16th and 17th.  When the level was broken in late NY trade and failed to go lower, the eye brow was raised and so did the price.  The price rebounded  and consolidated. The consolidation allowed the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart to catch up to the market  in the Tokyo trade (see chart above(.  When the price and moving average converged around the 1.6450 area, it was time for the market to make a decision -does the price move back above the moving average, or does it go lower?  That decision was to move further to the downside.  The market marched down and bottomed at the 1.6296.  On the way the price has moved through the 61.8% retracement of the move higher from the September 2nd low. That level comes in at the 1.6353 level.   This is also the current 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart.  This level should find sellers this morning.  If the price is able to move back above, this should indicate further upside potential (1.6380-85 area).     On the downside there should be some support this morning at the 1.6317 level. This level was bottom of the range on a closing basis for most of the summer season.  Most of the closes during the summer came between 1.6317 and 1.6589.  Although the price has been below this level today, the move back above has since found buyers before the level.  So watch this level to provide profit taking buying support for the shorts, with stops on a break below.

EURUSD falls and rebounds. Early NY buys again. Tests 1.4719 level. Posted: 18 Sep 2009 04:36 AM PDT The EURUSD fell sharly overnight in a traders market.  On the shorter term chart the pair initially moved below the 100 and 200 bar moving average on a 5 minute chart  in Tokyo trading and the downside was explored.  The price correction took the pair back up to test the key moving averages in the early London sesssion, failed to break higher and moved to the lows for the day at the 1.4647. The price is now testing the 1.4719 level (hmmm the December 2008 high).  This also corresponds with the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart.  I would expect some resistance at this level after the sharp move down overnight.

UK Net borrowing & Preliminary M4 money supply Posted: 18 Sep 2009 01:36 AM PDT UK net borrowing came in at 16.1B, less than the 17.7b expected. Preliminary M4 money supply came in at 0.1%, weaker than the 0.7% expected. Seemingly weak numbers for the Gbp. At the moment Gbp/Usd is trading at 1.6320, on the low end of a 150 or so pip range. (1.6295-1.6453)

Eurozone current account Posted: 18 Sep 2009 01:03 AM PDT Eurozone current account came in at 6.6B surplus, stronger than the prior negative reading of -5.3B. Strong number for the euro as we currently trade 10 pips off session lows at 1.4671.

Sterling trades through last weeks low Posted: 18 Sep 2009 12:43 AM PDT Gbp/Usd broke below last weeks low of 1.6321. From a daily perspective the next level of support comes in at 1.6240, its 100 day M/A. It has traded down to 1.6297 thus far. Looking at the daily chart it appears we are in the midst of a downtrend which began on September 11. If Gbp/Usd can close below 1.6321 the bearishness in the pair should continue.

German PPI Posted: 17 Sep 2009 11:03 PM PDT German PPI m/m came in at 0.5%, stronger than the 0.2% expected.  Y/y came in at -6.9%, stronger than the -7.2% expected. Strong numbers for the Euro but by market reaction you wouldn’t know it as Eur/Usd is off about 5 pips since release to 1.4724.

BOJ September monthly report; raises economy assessment Posted: 17 Sep 2009 10:35 PM PDT In there monthly report the BOJ raised its assessment of econmoy for first time since July. They see economy showing signs of recovery which is an upgrade from their prior view that the economy has stopped worsening. The Jpy has advanced against Gbp as we now trade at session low of 149.08. Usd/Jpy off about 15 pips to 91.10.

9-18 Economic Calendar Posted: 17 Sep 2009 08:54 PM PDT

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD breaks higher. Back above yesterdays highs at 1.4736.
• Philadelphia Fed Index comes in at 14.1 for September
• Philadelphia Fed Index is due at 10:00 AM
• EURUSD rebounds back toward 1.4719/27 resistance
• Sept 17 2009 Forex Market Update
• Beta-test for our new online training at 4pm today
• BOE’s Sentance on the newswires
• GBPUSD up on day but not rallies are contained
• Initial Claims come in lower but Continuing Claims rise. Housing Starts as expected.
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.17.2009
• SNB rate decision and comment on the CHF sends the USDCHF and EURCHF higher initially
• SNB keeps rates unchanged. Discuss the level of the CHF
• EURUSD makes yet another new high but coming off in NY trade
• USDJPY moves up in early NY trade. The 91.72 level is eyed.
• UK CBI industrial order expectations

EURUSD breaks higher. Back above yesterdays highs at 1.4736. Posted: 17 Sep 2009 07:13 AM PDT The bounce back move higher above all the intraday resistance levels in the EURUSD is another positive move for the pair.  The pair moved to new lows on the day earlier in the NY session, reaching a low of 1.4688 but is not above the high from yesterday at the 1.4736.  Watch this level for support.  Admittedly, the market does seem tired but the relatively shallow, bounce back  corrections, and progressively higher levels leaves the door open for one of those sharp spikes higher.    Be aware.  Markets are indeed tough today.

Philadelphia Fed Index comes in at 14.1 for September Posted: 17 Sep 2009 07:02 AM PDT  OVERALL INDEX AT 14.1 VS 4.2  NEW ORDERS INDEX 3.3 VS 4.2  PRICES-RECEIVED AT -10.6 VS -1.5  EMPLOYMENT INDEX -14.3 VS -12.9  PRICES-PAID INDEX 14.9 VS 10.0  FUTURE INDEX 47.8 VS 56.8

Philadelphia Fed Index is due at 10:00 AM Posted: 17 Sep 2009 06:58 AM PDT This is 2nd of regional indices to come out. The Empire Manufacturing index came out a few days ago and it was better than expectations.  The expectation is for a gain to 8.0 from 4.2 last month. This would be the highest value since June 2007

EURUSD rebounds back toward 1.4719/27 resistance Posted: 17 Sep 2009 06:45 AM PDT The 1.4719 level was the December 2008 high level. The 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at the 1.4723 level. The midpoint of the days range comes in at 1.4727.  All make for good resistance.  The market should find sellers against this level. A break higher muddies the water.  Intraday support comes in at the 1.4703.    A move below this level should solidify the high.

Sept 17 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 17 Sep 2009 06:39 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. The EURUSD made a new high tioday but has moved back below the 1.4719 level this morning. The level remains a key level for traders this morning. USDJPY has rebounded off lows as has USDCHF (new 2009 lows), but sellers still keeping a lid for now.

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BOE’s Sentance on the newswires Posted: 17 Sep 2009 06:07 AM PDT  BOE WILL NEED TO ASSESS QUANTITATIVE EASING AGAIN IN A FEW MONTHS CHINA MAY BE HELPING ECONOMY MORE THAN EXPECTED  GLOBAL ECONOMY MAY BE TURNING AROUND MORE QUICKLY  DATA HAS BEEN MORE POSITIVE IN PAST MONTHS  CONSTRUCTION SEEING SOME SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT  CAR INDUSTRY HAS SEEN LARGE DROP  THERE’S A LOT OF CONCERN ABOUT RECOVERY PACE  SEES SIGNS ECONOMY STARTING TO STABILIZE The comment on QE has the market a little uneasy on the downside.  Increase QE is viewed as bearish for the currency.

GBPUSD up on day but not rallies are contained Posted: 17 Sep 2009 06:03 AM PDT The GBPUSD closed yesterday at the 1.6486 level. On Tuesday it closed at 1.6485. The low reached 1.6468  in Tokyo trade.  Then a move higher ensued.  The momentum took the pair back above the 200 hour MA and up to test the 100 hour MA at the 1.6558 level but a brief move above the level (high 1.6566) was quickly rejected and the price started its move back to the downside.   The price is now back below the 200 hour MA at the 1.6531 level.  This level in addition to the 100 hour MA currently at the 1.6551 level will be resistance today.  Look for sellers against this level.  On the downside, a move below the closing price over the last few days at 1.6485 area should pressure the pair further.  There is channel support at the 1.6463.  This level should provide some support on the downside - at least initially as the pair continues to consolidate.

Initial Claims come in lower but Continuing Claims rise. Housing Starts as expected. Posted: 17 Sep 2009 05:38 AM PDT The Housing Starts meanwhile increased to 598K from 589K in July.  Building Permits also rose to 579K from 564K but this was slightly lower than expectations at the 583K level As far as Initial Claims, the number came inat 545K from 557 K last week.  The expectation was for a 557K reading.  The Continuing Claims were much higher suggesting the cumulation of workers out of work are increasing again.  Last week the value was the lowest level since April 3rd.  The market will be watching this in coming weeks to see if the trend back higher continues. Overall, the data is mixed.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.17.2009 Posted: 17 Sep 2009 05:37 AM PDT Good Morning: The Euro made new 2009 highs as the EUR/USD pair rose to 1.4766.  The pair has since eased back to 1.4720 ahead of Jobless Claims, and Housing Starts. World equity markets rose, and US Futures are pointing to a higher opening this morning.  Speculation that the Housing Starts data this morning will show an increase. Continued positive economic data suggests that the global economy is on the road to recovery.  The road may be long and winding, but it will eventually lead to a healthy global recovery. Oil:$72.08                               Gold:$1018.60 Today’s data: Housing Starts:                    exp:    598K                       prior: 581K         act: 598K Jobless Claims:                    exp:    555K                       prior: 550K         act: 545K Building Permits:                exp:     581K                      prior: 560K          act: 545K Philly Fed:                             exp:      8.0                         prior: 4.2 HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

SNB rate decision and comment on the CHF sends the USDCHF and EURCHF higher initially Posted: 17 Sep 2009 05:16 AM PDT The mention of the value of the CHF by the SNB in their interest rate decision release has led to a move higher in the USDCHF - initially at least.  The pair moved to test the 100 hour moving average at the 1.0352 level, reaching a high of 1.0357, but fell short of the 1.0368 level which is the low price from December 29, 2008.  This level was broken last Thursday for the first time. The last two days the price has not been able to trade above this key level.  A move above it today, will likely lead to continued short covering buying.    On the downside, the close yesterday was 1.0319 and right below that is additionals support at the 1.0315 level. Watch this level.  A break may be a test by the market to test the SNB resolve to sell the currency (buy USDCHF).  I would be cautious from the short side, in the face of the comment this morning - just out of fear of intervention.   The EURCHF also moved higher on the announcement.  The price moved above the 200 bar moving average on the 4 hour chart and looked to test the midpoint of the recent move lower from the August 10th high to the low reached on September 14th.  The midpoint comes in at the 1.5236 level. The high reached 1.5230.  The price is back down and looks to test support at the 1.5170 where lows from today ant the 50% retracement of the move up from the lows is found. Below that is key support at the 1.5154 to 1.5158 level where the 200 and 100 hour moving averages are located.  I would expect buyers against the level.

SNB keeps rates unchanged. Discuss the level of the CHF Posted: 17 Sep 2009 05:06 AM PDT The SNB says they will continue to firmly counter the Franc appreciation.  They will also look to continue to buy bonds if neccesary.  Other comments SEES 2010 INFLATION AT 0.6% VS PREVIOUS 0.4%  SWISS ECONOMY MAY SHRINK 1.5% TO 2.0% IN 2009 CONSUMER PRICES TO DROP 0.5% IN 2009  TO CONTINUE TO SUPPLY ECONOMY WITH AMPLE LIQUIDITY  UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN  IT WILL CONTINUE MONETARY POLICY  SOME ENCOURAGING ECONOMIC SIGNS The comment about the currency has led to a rise in the USDCHF.

EURUSD makes yet another new high but coming off in NY trade Posted: 17 Sep 2009 04:59 AM PDT The EURUSD made another move to the highs as Gold moved to new highs.  However, the price started to reverse lower and so did the EURUSD.  The pair has broken back through the 100 and 200 bar moving averages on the 5 minute chart at the 14734 and 1.4725 levels respectively and these levels will be eyed as resistance levels to sell against this morning.  If the price can not get back above these levels, further moves to the downside will likely be explored. The low for the day is the 1.4703 level.  A move below the level will likely look for a move toward the 1.4647 to 1.4652 support level. Below that is key support at the 1.4621 level. If you recall, this level was the 61.8% retracement of the longer term move down from the July 2008 high to the October 2008 low (start of the EURUSD move higher).  This level was resistance on the way higher and should provide some initial support at least on a move down.

USDJPY moves up in early NY trade. The 91.72 level is eyed. Posted: 17 Sep 2009 04:38 AM PDT NY has come in and bought up USDJPY. The pair is now moving through the 38.2% retracement level at the 91.33 level.    A break of the level will look toward the 200 hour moving average at the 91.57 level (see chart above).  The key upside level remains the 91.71 area which is the midpoint of the move down from the September 7th high to the low yesterday. In addition the low from July came in at the 91.72 level.  This level was broken last Thursday and the price has not been above it since (DAILY chart below).  So look for profit taking selling against the level today, with a break a “go” for a move higher in the pair toward the 92.00-05 next resistance level.  On the downside, there should be some support at the 90.92 area where the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is found (see chart below) . The price used the breaking of this level as a springboard to the upside this NY morning.  I would expect buyers before this level with stops on moves back below the level.  The 90.64 level is additional support today.

UK CBI industrial order expectations Posted: 17 Sep 2009 03:07 AM PDT UK CBI industrial order expectations came in at -48, better than the -49 forecasted. Not much market reaction as Cable continues to trade in a 1.6535-45 range.

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