Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• EURUSD falls below the 1.3594 level and tests target at 1.3573/75
• USDCAD moving above the key 1.0405/15 level
• USDCAD makes new lows today but trying to bounce
• Forex Morning Report - Feb 22
• USDJPY watching the 100 hour MA today
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.22.2010
• USDCHF testing 200 hour MA level at the 1.0745 level
• GBPUSD in a narrow range. Trying to move higher in early NY trade.
• EURUSD between close and the 100 hour MA as NY enters the quiet fray
• February 22nd, 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Eur/Usd trading below 100 hour M/A
• 2-22 Economic Calendar
• Online Trading Class Tuesday Feb 23 Register
• Risk Pairs Firmer to Start the Week

EURUSD falls below the 1.3594 level and tests target at 1.3573/75 Posted: 22 Feb 2010 07:17 AM PST The EURUSD fell below the 1.3594 level which was a floor for most of the day and the closing level from Friday’s trade.  The question now is will there be continued downside momentum.  Watch the 1.3595/99 on the upside to provide resistance as traders look for the continuation momentum trade down. A move above the 1.3600 level will likely burst the bears bubble.   The next target support is at the low for the day at the 1.3573/75 level. This level will need to give way, to get the bears more excited. (SEE PRIOR POST)

USDCAD moving above the key 1.0405/15 level Posted: 22 Feb 2010 07:07 AM PST Squeezes higher (see prior post).  The next target is the 1.0429 level on the 5 minute chart and then the 1.0448. ON the downside, the 1.0405 level should now hold support. Oil prices are coming down, helping the pair move higher.

USDCAD makes new lows today but trying to bounce Posted: 22 Feb 2010 06:31 AM PST The price has moved back above the 100 and 200 bar MAs on the 5 minute chart at the 1.0385/88 area (blue and green line  in the chart above).  This gives a slightly bullish bias for the pair with the bias turning back to the downside below 1.0385.  If the price is able to stay above this support level, there is key resistance at the 1.0405-15 level for the pair going back to the daily chart where a number of lows and highs occurred in the past.  The price reached a high of  1.0404 earlier today and came off.   On the downside, a move back below the 1.0385 level should extend the downside to test the low at the 1.0368 level.

Forex Morning Report - Feb 22 Posted: 22 Feb 2010 06:30 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video. Next Online Trading Class >> Tuesday, Feb 23th 2010 at 4pm Register Here

USDJPY watching the 100 hour MA today Posted: 22 Feb 2010 05:52 AM PST The USDJPY is moving closer to the 100 hour MA at the  91.06 level. The pair has closed above this moving average for all but 4 hourly bars since February 11th.  I would expect to see buyers against the level on a dip today as profit takers book some profits from the trend-like move down today. On the topside look for resistance against the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart.  The level comes in at the 91.46 level currently and moving lower.  The price has been using the 100 and 200 bar MA on this chart as resistance today apart from a single closing bar above the 200 bar MA early in the trading day.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.22.2010 Posted: 22 Feb 2010 05:28 AM PST Good Morning: With details of Greece’s swap arrangements with 15 securities firms coming to light-it seems that some of Greece’s true deficit issues may of been hidden by additional payments by banks along with the swaps that were put in place.  EU regulators are looking into the use of these swaps to hide the deficit problems.  Swaps are generally used by countries to manage their debt-not to generate cash.  The regulators are also looking into the use of swaps by other countries in the EZ, especially the other southern European countries (Spain,Portugal,Italy) that are also having deficit problems. World equity indexes were higher (except Shanghai-which just returned after the New Year Holiday).  US Futures are also higher this morning.    Commodities also rallied overnight. Oil:$80.25                              Gold:$1124.00 TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 08:30AM CHICAGO FED NAT ACTIVITY INDEX  JAN   —–   -O.61 10:30AM DALLAS FED MANF.ACTIVITY  FEB   ——-  8.3O% HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

USDCHF testing 200 hour MA level at the 1.0745 level Posted: 22 Feb 2010 05:25 AM PST The 200 hour MA has been tested on a number of occassions today. The current level comes in at the 1.0745 level.  A break should see further downward pressure for the pair with the 1.0718 level as the next target (61.8 of the move up from the February 9th low). On the topside today, the price has made an attempt to extend above the 100 hour MA at the 1.0766 level.  Each time, the price was not able to sustain any momentum with the high reaching 1.0778.    The failure at the top and the move toward support seems to favor a break. We will be watching closely.   Looking at the shorter term chart, the 5 minute chart shows up and down choppy trading conditions for most of the European session. With the price below the 100 and 200 bar MAs at the 1.0758 and 1.0755 levels respectively, the bias is slightly to the downside.  A move above turns the bias back to the upside shorter term and may be a stop level for those looking for the break lower.  Admittedly, the market is grasping at straws as it awaits the next clues for the next move.  From a fundamental perspective, there was a comment by SNBs Jordon which discounted an early Swiss interest rate hike.  He commented that raising rates at some point would be necessary but it is too soon. Meanwhile, the EURCHF remains near levels that saw intervention by the SNB/BIS.  That level comes in at the 1.4630 area.  With the price at the 1.4643 level, it is testing the central banks resolve to defend too strong a currency.  A move toward the level could trigger the central bank again, so be prepared/aware.

GBPUSD in a narrow range. Trying to move higher in early NY trade. Posted: 22 Feb 2010 05:12 AM PST THE GBPUSD came under pressure early in the Far East session, reaching a low of 1.5430.  The price rebounded quickly from the move but has been in a narrow high to low range since that time.  The high has reached 1.5503. The low 1.5447 (on 3 separate hourly closes).  The 56 pip range should be extended today.  The price is looking to extend higher in early NY trade.   Looking at the 5 minute chart, the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is at the 1.5469 level.  The price has beem moving above and below these shorter term moving averages signaling a non-trending consolidating market.  For traders a move above the moving average gives a bullish bias with confirmation through the high for the day at 1.5503.  Above that level, the market should look to test key resistance at the 1.5530/33 level where the 38.2% retracement and the original 2010 low is found. IF the price dips below, the price will need to get through the 1.5447 floor and the low of 1.5430.  This would confirm a more substantial bearish move with the low from Friday at 1.5354 the next logical target.

EURUSD between close and the 100 hour MA as NY enters the quiet fray Posted: 22 Feb 2010 04:56 AM PST The EURUSD has dipped below the close from Friday in early NY trading.  The close from Friday came in at the 1.3594 level. The low just reached 1.3586 but has rebounded.  The 100 hour MA comes in at the 1.3519 level and this will be upside resistance.  Earlier in the day the price reached the 200 hour MA 9Green line in the chart above) at the 1.3651 and found willing sellers against that level.  The 61.8% retracement of the move down came in at 1.3657. This also gave sellers the confidence to sell - with a stop above. Low risk. High potential reward.  For the day, the 100 hour MA at the 1.3619 level will be upside resistance.  A break will bring back into focus the 200 hour MA currently at the 1.3645 level. On the downside,t the price is back above the 1.3594 closing level from Friday.  A break back below the level should solicit additional selling  with the 1.3575 level being the next target.  Below that level the 1.3531 level will be the markets focus. This was the initial low level for 2010 from February 12th before the level was taken out on Thursday and Friday of last week.

February 22nd, 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 22 Feb 2010 04:33 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

Eur/Usd trading below 100 hour M/A Posted: 22 Feb 2010 01:13 AM PST Rumors earlier in the session of good sellers of Eur/Usd around 1.3625-30 level (notably the BIS) have pushed the pair below 1.3600. It closed the last hour of trading below its 100 hour M/A of 1.3621 which confirms a bearish sentiment in the near term. The pairs next support level lies at 1.3573 which is the 38.2% Fibo of move up from 1.3444. More solid supprot lies at 1.3524, the 61.8% Fibo. If we do move back to upside the pair should be hard pressed to get much momentum through that 100 hour M/A, which should now act as resistance.

2-22 Economic Calendar Posted: 21 Feb 2010 08:26 PM PST

Online Trading Class Tuesday Feb 23 Register Posted: 21 Feb 2010 07:06 PM PST Next FXDD Online Trading Class- Tuesday Feb 23 2010 - Classes fill up quickly and you must register in advance. >> Register Here

Risk Pairs Firmer to Start the Week Posted: 21 Feb 2010 06:41 PM PST Risks pairs are firmer to start the trading week amid continued speculation of a debt bailout for Greece, even as negative articles on the state of the Euro and inflationary concerns in Europe persist. The initial move higher on the EUR/USD has not followed through with the open of trading in Tokyo, which could mean this bid is to be short lived. The EUR/USD pair has broken the downward channel which has contained the pair since the beginning of the year, but any further appreciation could be met with some resistance at the 100hr moving average. For the AUD/USD pair which has followed the Euro higher has carry benefits some investors feel will continue to give the currency an advantage, regardless of the 25 basis point move at the discount window in the US last week. On the chart below we see the pair retesting what was trendline support on the appreciation in February and is now looking like resistance.

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• The February 19th 2010 Weekend Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• USDCHF holds 100 hour MA and pauses
• USDCAD breaks the support at 1.0405
• EURUSD fails on the break above 1.3584.
• EURUSD resistance at 1.3584 from prior lows/highs
• GBPUSD moving toward resistance at 1.5459
• USDCHF broke through the 1.0825 level and approaches the next target
• The February 19th 2010 NY Midday Forex Report is available for viewing.
• The USDCHF tests the 1.0825 support level and bounces
• USDCAD moves back below the 100 hour MA at 1.0463
• EURUSD moves to resistance at the 1.3533 and comes off
• USDJPY tests highs at 92.08
• EURUSD moves down to test 61.8% retracement support again and bounces

The February 19th 2010 Weekend Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 19 Feb 2010 01:53 PM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

USDCHF holds 100 hour MA and pauses Posted: 19 Feb 2010 11:41 AM PST As per the prior post, the USDCHF fell to and found support at the 100 hour MA level (see prior post).   The market has paused at the level as it decides the final direction into the Friday close.  Traders who are short from above (i.e. a break of the 1.0825 support or above - see earlier post) are in control as the weekend approaches.  Taking profit or partial profit at the level is an option and restart on Monday.   Doing so, keeps something in the game and could benefit from any weekend tension in the Middle East (should there be any).  From a standing start, it is best to leave well enough alone and look for a better opportunity after the market opens.

USDCAD breaks the support at 1.0405 Posted: 19 Feb 2010 10:42 AM PST Stops triggered and the price moves to 1.0387. Resistance now at 1.0405.

EURUSD fails on the break above 1.3584. Posted: 19 Feb 2010 10:28 AM PST The EURUSD broke above 1.3584 but has come back below the level.  The failure to find additional momentum should solicit profit taking sellers.   Support at 1.3553.  A move back above the 1.3592 level would confirm the upside again. The 1.3584 level remains a key “remembered” price level for the pair.

EURUSD resistance at 1.3584 from prior lows/highs Posted: 19 Feb 2010 10:16 AM PST A move above 1.3587 would likely level to a further move toward the 100 hour MA at the 1.3616 level.  Watching the level closely.

GBPUSD moving toward resistance at 1.5459 Posted: 19 Feb 2010 10:07 AM PST The GBPUSD is approaching resistance at the 1.5459 level. The price represents the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the Discount Rate hike.  The level is also a correction high level from earlier in the trading day today.  We should see profit taking sellers against the level with stop so na move through the level.

USDCHF broke through the 1.0825 level and approaches the next target Posted: 19 Feb 2010 10:01 AM PST The USDCHF fell below the 1.0825 level as per the prior post (CLICK HERE) and moved lower. THe price is now down testing the next target support at the 1.0787 level. The 100 hour MA at the 1.0767 is also a target level.  Stops on the upside  are still focused at the 1.0819-25  area.

The February 19th 2010 NY Midday Forex Report is available for viewing. Posted: 19 Feb 2010 09:25 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

The USDCHF tests the 1.0825 support level and bounces Posted: 19 Feb 2010 08:57 AM PST The USDCHF went down and tested the 1.0825 level where the old high from last Friday, and the high from yesterday (prior to the surge higher) . The price dipped just below the level at 1.0819 and 1.0821 but each time the price bounced.  A move back below may not be so lucky.   On the topside look for sellers against the 1.0847 level (100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart).  WE should see sellers against this moving average with stops above it.

USDCAD moves back below the 100 hour MA at 1.0463 Posted: 19 Feb 2010 08:37 AM PST The USDCAD has moved back below the 100 hour MA at the 1.0463 level.  This is bearish for the pair as the price tested the 200 hour MA and the 100 day MA earlier and now has broken the downside support level at the 100 hour MA (breaking outside the Goal Post).  The level now becomes upside resistance and should find sellers against the level.  On the downside, the 1.0405/15 level remains key support for the pair.  A break of this level will be bearish for the pair. There is some concern that the Iran situation with higher nuclear capability has the market a little concerned.   Oil is up around $0.50 on a futures basis.  The weekend bring uncertainty and it seems the market might be a little cautious for the commodity pairs.

EURUSD moves to resistance at the 1.3533 and comes off Posted: 19 Feb 2010 08:29 AM PST The EURUSD moved up to the resistance at 1.3533 and held (SEE PRIOR POST).  This is the 50% of the move down from the surprise move lower yesterday. A move above will likely solicit additional buying interest but look for profit taking sellers. Support now comes in at the 1.3512 area (old 38.2% retracement level) and below that 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (blue line in the chart above at the 1.3503 level currently).

USDJPY tests highs at 92.08 Posted: 19 Feb 2010 07:52 AM PST The USDJPY is up testing the highs for the day at 92.08. A move above will next target the 92.30 level where the  200 day MA is found for the pair.  Keep this level in mind. The 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart remains at 90.83.  If the price remains above these moving average lines, the bias remains to the upside.

EURUSD moves down to test 61.8% retracement support again and bounces Posted: 19 Feb 2010 07:43 AM PST The EURUSD moved down to test the 1.3483 level again and bounced.  The London closing hour is approaching at 11:00-12:00 and this may cause some squaring up of positions.  The market can go either way so be aware. A move below the 1.3483 level should lead to further declines toward the lows for the day at the 1.3456 and 1.3444 levels.  ON the upside, the 1.3533 remains as upside resistance. This is the middle of the range from the move down after the Discount Rate rise. The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at the 1.3499.  Above is bullish. Below is bearish.

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• USDJPY consolidates after the sharp move higher yesterday
• Forex Morning Report - Feb 19th
• GBPUSD trying to bottom but not getting very far
• Feds Dudley on the wires
• CPI comes in at +0.2% and +0.1% ex food and energy. Canada Retail Sales about as expected.
• CPI due out at 8:30 AM. Canada Retail Sales also due for release.
• Rebroadcast of Feb 18th Online Trading Class
• EURUSD back above 1.3483 level. 1.3531/38 next upside resistance
• February 19th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• UK Retail Sales
• Fed’s Bullard and Lockhart Statements
• AUDUSD falls as well toward the 200 hour MA.
• USDJPY moves toward the 200 day MA resistance level
• EURUSD moves closer to the 61.8% longer term target level
• GBPUSD breaks below 1.5556 and 2010 low at 1.5533

USDJPY consolidates after the sharp move higher yesterday Posted: 19 Feb 2010 06:33 AM PST The USDJPY has been well behaved in trading today. The high for the day comes in at 92.08.  The low has come in at 91.61.  The 91.67 level has been more of a floor for the pair with a number of bars on the 5 minute chart at that level. Let’s call support at 91.61-67.  On the topside, the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is at 91.83.  This will be the watched today.  As long as the price remains below the 91.83 the bias remains to the downside with support at 91.61/67.  A move below the 91.61/67 level will be needed to confirm the downward bias for today.  On the topside a move back above the 91.83 level could reestablish the upside for the USDJPY.  In which case a move to test the top at 91.08 and the all important 200 day MA at 91.30 would be the next upside target levels.

Forex Morning Report - Feb 19th Posted: 19 Feb 2010 06:30 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

GBPUSD trying to bottom but not getting very far Posted: 19 Feb 2010 05:48 AM PST The GBPUSD fell sharply overnight, but has slowed the declines pace.  This has allowed the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart to catch up with the market and the price is currently trading at the level.  The pair did move above the 100 bar MA off the 8:30 data, but remained below the 200 bar MA at the 1.5425 level currently. A move above this level is needed to solicit additional dip buying interest.   A move above would next target the 1.5459 level. Further up is the floor area prior to the last plunge down. That level comes in at the 1.5533-56.  This ultimately is the key topside resistance.

Feds Dudley on the wires Posted: 19 Feb 2010 05:43 AM PST Says Discount Rate change was a small technical change. Not a monetary policy decision. The Fed will still stay on hold for an extended period of time.

CPI comes in at +0.2% and +0.1% ex food and energy. Canada Retail Sales about as expected. Posted: 19 Feb 2010 05:30 AM PST Canada Retail come +0.4% vs +0.5 expectation.  Less Autos +0.4% vs +0.3% The USDCAD has come down after the data and is testing the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.0491 level.  On the topside look for resistance at the 200 hour MA.  That level held earlier today and came off. The current level comes in at the 1.0529 level. A break above will next target the 1.0542 level and then 1.0588.

CPI due out at 8:30 AM. Canada Retail Sales also due for release. Posted: 19 Feb 2010 05:26 AM PST Expectations are for a rise of 0.3% vs +0.1% prior. The Ex Food and Energy component is expected to rise by 0.1% which is the same as the previous month.  The YoY is expected to come in at +2.8% for the headline figure and +1.8% for the ex Food and Energy.  The core inflation rate has been between 1.4% and 1.9% since December of 2008. Canada Retail Sales are expected to show a 0.5% gain for the month after falling by -0.3% last month. Ex Autos the expectation is for  a +0.3% gain after a 0.0% gain.

Rebroadcast of Feb 18th Online Trading Class Posted: 19 Feb 2010 05:24 AM PST The Rebroadcast of the Feb 18th 2010 FXDD Online Trading Class is now available at http://forex.fxdd.com/webinars

EURUSD back above 1.3483 level. 1.3531/38 next upside resistance Posted: 19 Feb 2010 05:10 AM PST The EURUSD moved below the target at the 1.3483 level which was the 61.8% of the move up from the 2009 low to the 2009 high.  The price is moving toward the 1.3531/38 level which was the lows from February 12 and yesterday prior to the move lower.  This will be the next resistance level for the pair this morning.  Above the level the pair has room to head up toward the 1.3575-85 where the 38.2% of the move down and the floor lows going back to February 5th. On the downside, support will continue to come in at the 1.3482 level.  A break below this level the low from the day at 1.3444 .  Below that, looking back at the last time the price was at this level, the price based off 1.3423 on May 18th.

February 19th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 19 Feb 2010 04:42 AM PST Click here to view the embedded video.

UK Retail Sales Posted: 19 Feb 2010 01:38 AM PST UK Retail Sales m/m came in at -1.2%, weaker than the -0.5%. The prior reading of 0.3% was revised up to 0.5% Y/Y came in at 2.6%, stronger than the 1.1% expected. The prior reading of 2.1% was revised up to 2.9%. Initial market reaction was an abrupt sell off of GBP. Gbp/Usd made a new low of 1.5354 then snapped back to pre-number levels of 1.5385-90.

Fed’s Bullard and Lockhart Statements Posted: 18 Feb 2010 06:45 PM PST Speaking in Memphis, St. Louis Fed President Bullard made the following comments: “Everything” depends on data for exit strategy. Fed funds rate increase may be delayed until 2011. The view that rates will rise later this year is “overblown”. Improving economy will help commercial real estate. Mixing politics and policy leads to poor results. Pre-crisis fed had insufficient access to information. Inflation expectations are rising. Fed should have direct access to financial information. Labor markets are weak, “at best stabilizing”. “Economic recovery is on track”. “Housing sector is stabilizing”. Fed is keeping “close eye” on inflation expectations. Fed will carry out exit strategy “in right way”. Understands cause for market “nervousness” from budget deficit. Discount rate move unrelated to future of main rate. Stands by “extended period” language on rates. Discount rate move is “part of normalization process”.   The Fed’s Lockhart also made the following comments: Inflation expectations are ”quite well anchored” Fed is moving along briskly with “regulatory overhaul”. Doesn’t see asset sales as “early or first step”. Doesn’t want to “put a date” on “extended period”. Discount move doesn’t signal tightening.

AUDUSD falls as well toward the 200 hour MA. Posted: 18 Feb 2010 04:26 PM PST The AUDUSD has fallen on the back of the Fed Discount rate increase and stands between the Goal Posts as defined by the 100 hour MA and the 200 hour MA.   The 200 hour MA comes in at the 0.8872 now and should be initial profit taking support. The low has reached 0.8887 so far .  The 100 hour MA was broken at the 0 .8952 level and this should now keep the rallies contained.       Although the Fed was cautious and said the action was not a tightening of consumer/business rates, the implication by the market will be that it is another step toward tightening.   Although the RBA is expected to tighten further a Fed tightening should balance out that and keep the AUDUSD under wraps.  The pair did go and test the 200 day moving average in early February reaching a low of 0.8577 vs the 200 day MA at 0.8560.  The pair may start to wander back toward this key moving average again.  If China tightens more or comes under pressure to raise the value of the Yuan, it may slow their growth more and in turn lead to a weaker AUDUSD. Of course we will look to follow the technicals and with the price back below the 100 hour MA at the 0.8952 level, the downside will be further explored.  Look for sellers against this key level.

USDJPY moves toward the 200 day MA resistance level Posted: 18 Feb 2010 03:09 PM PST The level comes in at the 92.30 level.  Look for profit taking sellers against the level with stops on a break above next targeting the high from December and January at the 93.14 and 93.77 levels respectively.  On the downside, look for buyers at 91.64.  A move back below the 91.41 level will not be welcomed by the USDJPY bulls.

EURUSD moves closer to the 61.8% longer term target level Posted: 18 Feb 2010 02:18 PM PST The EURUSD has moved down to test the 61.8% retracement level at 1.3483.  The low reached 1.3485.  With the negative bias, the balance may be tipped to the downside but the holding of the level could solicit a short covering bid of some sort.  However please note a break of the key support level should solicit additional selling momentum. SO be aware. On the topside look for resistance at the 1.3531/37 level now. The bears, who are in control would likely look to sell against this area. The low on May 18th 2009 at 1.3423 becomes a target on the break.

GBPUSD breaks below 1.5556 and 2010 low at 1.5533 Posted: 18 Feb 2010 02:10 PM PST The last time the market was at these levels was in May 2009. During that time the low consolidation period extended from 1.5448 to 1.5515 before moving higher.   Longer term, the GBPUSD will next target 1.5272 where the 50% of the 2009 low to high range comes in.  ON the topside, the 1.5533 level and 1.5556 will of course be levels to watch.   A break back above these low levels will not be welcomed by the GBPUSD bears who are looking for the momentum to the downside to continue.  A move above will likely solicit some short covering buying on the move back higher.

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610