Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURJPY moves higher on USDJPY strength
• Fed Bernanke on newswires.
• The March 25th NY Morning Commentary is available for viewing
• USDJPY moves to new highs
• Intial Claims better. Continuing Claims worse
• EURUSD corrects overnight
• Online Trading Class Tuesday March 30th 4pm
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.25.2010
• The March 25th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• U.K. Retail Sales
• Merkel defends the euro
• Eurozone M3 Money Supply
• ECB’s Nowotny looks for devalued Euro
• Trichet speaks
• French Consumer Spending

EURJPY moves higher on USDJPY strength Posted: 25 Mar 2010 07:16 AM PDT The EURJPY has move higher over the last few days on the back of the overall selling in JPY. This is despite the sharp fall in the EURUSD over the same period.  The pair remains near the lows - but trades between the consolidation highs and lows on the daily chart.   On the hourly chart, the pair has extended above the 200 hour MA but has run into resistance against the 61.8% retracement of the move down from the Marth 17th high to the March 22nd low.  The high reached 123.52. The 61.8% came in at 1.2353. This keeps the pair under wraps for the time being and may solicit the longs selling against the level with stops on a move above.

Fed Bernanke on newswires. Posted: 25 Mar 2010 07:07 AM PDT FED WILL NEED TO BEGIN TIGHTENING SOMETIME ECONOMIC SLACK REMAINS  SUBDUED INFLATION WARRANT LOW RATES RESTORING MORE NORMAL BALANCE SHEET A LONG-TERM AIM He also says that the Fed has the tools to withdraw and reverse stimulus but at the moment the economy still needs accomodative policies. In the past the Fed has refrained from tightening until 250K jobs on average over 3 months materialized.   The expectation for NFP next week is around +185K to 200K.  The Unemployment rate remains high but with rates at 0.25% one must wonder if 1% is also “accomodative”.    Historical it is.

The March 25th NY Morning Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 25 Mar 2010 06:30 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

USDJPY moves to new highs Posted: 25 Mar 2010 06:25 AM PDT  The USDJPY has moved to new highs since January 11th. The price is currently trading at the highs for the day after correcting with the market in earlier action. The 93.12 is the next longer term target for the pair. This is the 50% retracement of the 2009 move down from the high to the low. On the downside, watch the 92.14 level for support. This was the high from February 19th.  The other key downside level is of course the 200 day MA level. This was broken yesterday and helped propel the market higher. The move above the 200 day moving average is a significant event. There is also some rumblings that the hedgers in the currency pair may look to unwind hedges above this key level.  This could lead to a more substantial move higher for the USDJPY in the longer term.

Intial Claims better. Continuing Claims worse Posted: 25 Mar 2010 05:32 AM PDT The Initial Claims came in at 442K vs 450 expectations The Continuing Claims came in at 4648K vs 4562K expectations.

EURUSD corrects overnight Posted: 25 Mar 2010 05:30 AM PDT The EURUSD has corrected overnight on Trichets emergency collaterol rules beyond 2010.  Nevertheless, the extension has had a limited impact to the EURUSD - at least in relation to the fall that has occurred over the last few days.  The pair remains down near the bottom of the weeks range.  The correction from the high for the week to the low for the week has remained below the 38.2% of the range. That level comes in at the 1.3392. The high today only extended to 1.3370. The close yesterday came in at 1.3314.  This level will be watched on the downside. The 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart will also be watched (see chart above)  Those levels come in at the 1.3332 and 1.3329 levels respectively.  A break of the level and the close from yesterday will look to extend the range lower with the 1.3283 low for  the day the next target.

Online Trading Class Tuesday March 30th 4pm Posted: 25 Mar 2010 05:29 AM PDT Now is your chance to attend a live FXDD Online Trading class. Learn in real time in our free webinar, Tuesday, March 30 2010 at 4pm Register Here

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.25.2010 Posted: 25 Mar 2010 05:28 AM PDT Good Morning: The Euro rose ahead of today’s EU summit in Brussels. Infighting within the EU regarding an aid package for Greece, and concerns that Portugal may be the next EU country with major sovereign debt problems caused yesterday’s fall in the Euro.  German leader Merkel is opposing any direct aid-and is more in favor of a IMF-EU joint bailout for Greece.  Dr. Merkel is also concerned for her political future, as German regional elections are upcoming, and polls have shown that the German people are opposed to outright aid to Greece. U.K. Retail Sales rose better than expected.  Even though revisions were lower than originally reported, the data does show that business activity is picking up.  The U.K. economy is still slow to react, but it is a good sign that they are finally joining the rest world with economic growth peaking through the cracks. Equity markets are mostly higher-and US Futures are also higher this morning. Oil:$81.07                                                       Gold:$1093.90 TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 8:30A.M. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS 20-Mar 450K 457K 8:30A.M. CONTINUING CLAIMS 13-Mar 4560K 4579K 9:00A.M. RPX COMPOSITE 28dy YoY  JAN. -1.10% 9:00A.M. RPX COMPOSITE 28dy INDEX JAN.21 193.91% HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

The March 25th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 25 Mar 2010 04:50 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.Video Pending

U.K. Retail Sales Posted: 25 Mar 2010 02:38 AM PDT U.K. Retail Sales m/m came in at 2.1%, stronger than the 0.8% expected. Gbp/Usd catapulted above 1.5000 on news and has since pulled back to 1.4970.

Merkel defends the euro Posted: 25 Mar 2010 02:24 AM PDT German Chancellor Angela Merkel says the euro is more stable than the deutschemark. The euro’s stabilty has helped the EU through this crisis and undermining the eurozone rules will put Europe at risk.

Eurozone M3 Money Supply Posted: 25 Mar 2010 02:04 AM PDT Eurozone M3 Money Supply y/y came in at -0.4%, weaker than the -0.1% expected and the prior reading of 0.1%. Eur/Usd moving towards session high at time of post at 1.3345.

ECB’s Nowotny looks for devalued Euro Posted: 25 Mar 2010 01:44 AM PDT  European Central Bank council member Ewald Nowotny says euro depreciation is actually positive for the whole economy and euro overvaluation hurts export companies. He sees the euro as remaining important internationally. Greece has taken steps to solve its own problems, according to Novotny, and he goes on to say that the euro will remain a hard currncy and it is absurd to exclude any country from the Eurozone.

Trichet speaks Posted: 25 Mar 2010 01:36 AM PDT Here are some comments made by ECB Pesident Jean- Claude Trichet; * ECB non-standard measures have served well * ECB doesn’t want banks to become dependent on it * Euro-denominated CDS market is robust * Current interest rates are appropriate * Hedging instruments shouldn’t be used to speculate * Economic recovery is in progress, crisi not over * Can’t rule out setbacks during recovery * ECB intends to keep current collateral rules in 2011

French Consumer Spending Posted: 25 Mar 2010 01:07 AM PDT French Consumer Spending m/m came in at -1.2%, weaker than the 0.4% expected. This negative data coupled with rumblings that E.U. members are undecided on Greece aid helped knock Eur/Usd off recent high of 1.3345 to trade down to 1.3315. Presently the pair trades at 1.3325.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• AUDUSD approaches the 100 day MA support
• Forex Morning Report - March 24
• EURUSD trying to bounce off intraday low but rallies are shallow
• UK Darling starts his budget speech. GBPUSD moves down
• Durable Goods up +0.5% Ex Trans better at +0.9%
• USDJPY breaks above topside resistance at 90.72 and breaks higher
• Rebroadcast of March 23 Online Trading Class
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.24.2010
• EURUSD trying to bottom but sentiment has change fundamentally and technically to the downside
• The March 24th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Fitch downgrades Portugal credit rating
• Eurozone Industrial Orders
• Eurozone PMI
• German IFO Business Climate
• German Manufacturing & Services PMI

AUDUSD approaches the 100 day MA support Posted: 24 Mar 2010 06:58 AM PDT The 100 day MA is approaching the 100 day MA at the 0.9067 The low today has reached 0.9090. There is good support at this level.  On Monday the low came in at the 0.9083 level.   On March 15th the low came in at 0.9094.    The AUDUSD moved below the 100 day MA in January, moving down to test the 200 day moving average at the 0.8560 area.  From there the market rebounded as the RBA raised rates and concerns about EURO took the pressure off the AUD and back on other currencies under more pressure.  The better US data today is giving the US dollar a boost and key technical levels are being breached in the process. A break of the low from Monday paves the way for a test of the 100 day MA.   A break should lead to further downside momentum with the 0.8974 level the next target. On the topside, look for resistance at the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at 0.9138.

Forex Morning Report - March 24 Posted: 24 Mar 2010 06:25 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

EURUSD trying to bounce off intraday low but rallies are shallow Posted: 24 Mar 2010 06:15 AM PDT The EURUSD has bounced off an intraday low at 1.3333 and has minor trendline resistance at the 1.3358 level. The key retracement level to watch today will be the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. That level comes in at the 1.3390 level currently and moving  lower.   The price has stayed below this moving average for the entire day, testing it once during the London session, before moving sharply lower.  Bias remains to the downside for the EURUSD after breaking key support at the 1.3482 (61.8% retracement of the 2009 low to high move)  and the 1.3437/51 floor for 2010. Longer term, the EURUSD daily chart has a number of downside targets off of the the April to May period of 2009 which was the last time the price was at the area. 1.3301, 1.3245 and 1.3094 are support levels.  A longer term target, if the bias can remain to the downside on the intermediate and shorter term charts, would be the 1.2884 area. This is the channel support line off the daily chart. I would not focus on it, the EURUSD has other targets even on the shorter term chart. However, if the pair continues it bearish ways and stays below key resistance at the 1.3437 level,  a momentum to the downside could materialize. Be aware. Be prepared.

UK Darling starts his budget speech. GBPUSD moves down Posted: 24 Mar 2010 05:39 AM PDT Unemployment not risen as much. Borrowing lower than forcast. Global economy more positive. Halve deficit in 4 yrs One time 2.5B one off growth package Bonus tax raised 2 billion pounds The GBPUSD initial reaction is a continuation of the move to the downside for the pair. The price is now below the low for the week at the 1.4930 and moving to test the 1.4900 level.  The next target on the downside comes in at 1.4871 which is the low from March 10th.

Durable Goods up +0.5% Ex Trans better at +0.9% Posted: 24 Mar 2010 05:31 AM PDT Revison is also better rising to +3.9%.  for the headline.(from 2.6%). Better for GDP 1st quarter. Non Defense Capital Goods ex aircraft rises a healthy 1.1% Ex Defense rises by 1.6% The numbers should continue the dollar bullish trend.  USDJPY breaks higher.

USDJPY breaks above topside resistance at 90.72 and breaks higher Posted: 24 Mar 2010 05:25 AM PDT The USDJPY broke above the 90.72 level and moved sharply higher moving closer to the next target at the 200 day moving average. That level comes in at the 91.57 level.     The market has tested the 200 day MA on two separate occassions in January and in February at the 93.53 and 92.32.  These would be further upside target areas for the pair on a break higher.  The USDJPY has not closed above the 200 day MA since August 13th 2009 at the 95.08 level.  The USDJPY has now corrected over 38.2% of the move down from the March 2009 high to the November 2009 low.  That level comes in at 91.15 and will be a support level today.  The 50% of the move down comes in at 93.12 and this too will be a longer term target above. First things first, stay above the 91.15. Then break above the 200 day MA and close above. From there look for increased momentum to the upside target levels.

Rebroadcast of March 23 Online Trading Class Posted: 24 Mar 2010 05:21 AM PDT MARCH 23 2010 FXDD Online Training -Click Here to watch Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell teach a session on core trading concepts.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.24.2010 Posted: 24 Mar 2010 05:20 AM PDT Good Morning: The Euro fell across the board as the EU may seek IMF assistance to bailout Greece.  The EUR/USD pair traded at the lowest level in 10 months, and CHF traded at a near record high against the single currency. More bad news hit the Euro Zone, as Fitch Ratings lowered Portugal’s credit grade overnight.  The EU will be put to a test regarding Greece’s debt issue.  If the EU has problems dealing with a relatively small issue like Greece’s debt problems-how will they deal with a real economic disaster?  The marketplace will be watching very closely to see how the EU will handle this problem, and the future of the Euro may be at the forefront of this decision.  Asian equity markets were lower, and Europe is lower.  US Futures are pointing to a lower opening this morning. Metals and oil also dropped, as the dollar accelerated. Oil:$80.60                                                          Gold:$1094.10                   TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 8:30A.M. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS FEB. 0.50% 3.00% 8:30A.M. DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION FEB. 0.60% -0.60% 10:00A.M. NEW HOME SALES  FEB. 315K 309K 10:00A.M. NEW HOME SALES MoM FEB. 1.90% -11.20% HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

EURUSD trying to bottom but sentiment has change fundamentally and technically to the downside Posted: 24 Mar 2010 05:09 AM PDT There is more support in EU for IMF involvement than before.  Also can’t confirm there is an accord between Germany, France on IMF aid for Greece. The bias for a lower EURUSD has intensified and will likely not be objected to by the EU officials. The US seems to be fairing better of late and despite the negative dollar implications as a result of the debt situation, it is not immediate.  The focus is on the EURUSD and this will likely be the case for the near term.  Technically, the pair broke below the 61.8% of the 2009 low to high range at 1.3482 and the selling intensified through the support lows at 1.3437-51.  The next targets are 1.3300 and 1.3245.   The low from 2009 came in at 1.2456.  Of course, the pattern has been for EURO trend and US correction.  We will therefore  be watching bottoming potential for the pair and strength of the corrections. On the 5 minute chart, the 1.3390 level will be eyed on the topside (old corrective high). The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is located at 1.3403 and this will also be resistance for the pair today.  The 38.2% of the high to low range for the day also comes in at 1.3403.

The March 24th 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 24 Mar 2010 04:39 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

Fitch downgrades Portugal credit rating Posted: 24 Mar 2010 03:12 AM PDT Fitch downgrades Portugal credit rating to AA-, with a negative outlook.

Eurozone Industrial Orders Posted: 24 Mar 2010 03:04 AM PDT Eurozone Industrial Orders m/m came in at -2.0%, weaker than the 2.0% estimate. Y/Y came in at 7.0%, weaker than the 13.9% expected. Eur/Usd just made new lows on heels of this negative data as the pair traded down to 1.3343.

Eurozone PMI Posted: 24 Mar 2010 02:07 AM PDT Eurozone Manufacturing PMI came in at 56.3, stronger than the 54.1 expected. Services PMI came in at 53.7, stronger than the 52.0 These strong numbers don’t help the Euro as they normally would due to unrest among in some EU nations, namely Greece. Eur/Usd continues its slide, now trading at 1.3365.

German IFO Business Climate Posted: 24 Mar 2010 02:03 AM PDT German IFO Business Climate came in at 98.1, stronger than the 95.8 expected. This gave Eur/Usd a short lived boost above 1.3400. It abruptly changed course and currently trades at 1.3380 as Greece Concerns outweigh this positive data.

German Manufacturing & Services PMI Posted: 24 Mar 2010 01:32 AM PDT German Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 59.6, stronger than the 56.9 expected. Services PMI came in at 54.7, stronger than the 52.2 expected. Eur/Usd relatively unchanged after release, trading either side of 1.3440.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• USDJPY remains in the doldrums
• Richmond comes in at 6 vs 5 expected. Existing Home Sales come in as expected
• Forex Morning Report - March 23
• GBPUSD between two trendlines.
• Canada Leading Indicator rise by 0.8%. USDCAD moves down.
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.23.2010
• EURUSD moves to new lows in early NY trading but has support
• March 23rd 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is avaiable for trading
• UK CBI Realized Sales
• ECB’s Constancio on the wires…..
• BBA Mortgage Approvals/ RPI
• UK CPI
• Usd/Chf finds resistance, for now
• SNB’s Hildebrand Speaks
• Usd/Chf above 200 hour M/A, trying to break out of tight range

USDJPY remains in the doldrums Posted: 23 Mar 2010 07:10 AM PDT USDJPY moved up intially on the data moving above the 200 hour MA at the 90.42 level but has since retreated back lower.  A move above the 90.42 level with sustained momentum is needed to propel the pair higher with 90.72/79 the next key target area.  This area has contained the upside.  On the downside, the 100 day MA - currently at 90.06 remains the key level. The price has closed above the 100 day MA for 12 of 13 days but cannot extend higher. On a break of 90.72/79 the topside target would become the 200 day MA at the 91.60 level currently. On the downside, the 100 hour MA at the 90.34  followed by 90.18 become the targets before 90.06 (100 day MA).  It is what it is for the USDJPY as it struggles with the non-trending environment.

Richmond comes in at 6 vs 5 expected. Existing Home Sales come in as expected Posted: 23 Mar 2010 06:59 AM PDT Slightly better than expectations. for Richmond Existing Home sales come in at 5.02 million annualized. SLightly better than expected.  Months  supply goes to 8.6 vs 7.8 months which is not positive for prices going forward. USDJPY moved up intially on the data moving above the 200 hour MA at the 90.42 level but has since retreated back lower.  A move above the 90.42 level with sustained momentum is needed to propel the pair higher with 90.72/79 the next key target area

Forex Morning Report - March 23 Posted: 23 Mar 2010 06:36 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

GBPUSD between two trendlines. Posted: 23 Mar 2010 05:55 AM PDT The bottom of the trendline broken last week held topside resistance. The downside support line was tested, pressuring the line at 1.4986 but has bounced back above the 1.5000 level.  The low reached today at 1.4972 matched the last low from yesterday before the move higher in NY trading.  The topside resistance comes in against the midpoint fo the weeks 2 day range at the 1.5021 level and above that at 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.5034 level (blue line in the chart below). The GBPUSD has been pressured on the back of slightly lower inflation released over night (CPI down to 3.0% instead of 3.1%).

Canada Leading Indicator rise by 0.8%. USDCAD moves down. Posted: 23 Mar 2010 05:32 AM PDT This is a touch less than the 0.9% expectations. The USDCAD has come down from the highs of the day, but remains above the 200 hour MA after testing the level in London trade.  The high for the day has been  1.0227 which is below the high reached yesterday at 1.0241.  The failure to take out the highs, should keep the pressure on the pair.   The 200 hour MA support at the  1.0172 level would be key support today (see chart above) . Closer support should come in at 1.0192 which is the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (blue line below) The upside target if the price can maintain above the 200 hour MA would extend to the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the February 25th high to the March 19th low. That level comes in at the 1.0296 level.  First things first for the pair, however, is to get above yesterday’s high price.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.23.2010 Posted: 23 Mar 2010 05:15 AM PDT Good Morning: The Euro dropped on speculation that the EU will not agree on a bailout package for Greece at their summit later this week-thus pushing demand for the USD as a refuge. The USD is stronger as pressure continues to mount against the Euro as the EU continues to argue among themselves regarding what would be the best way to assist Greece.  Some advocates are asking for the EU to intervene, while others consider the IMF the best option. EU President Van Rompuy is seeking  some agreement on aid to Greece prior to the opening of the EU summit. World equity markets moved higher as better than expected earnings are helping the equity markets worldwide.   Metals and gold were also lower in early morning trading. Oil::80.90                                     Gold:$1095.60    TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 10:00A.M. EXISTING HOME SALES  FEB. 4.98M 5.05M 10:00A.M. HOUSE PRICE INDEX MoM JAN. -0.90% -1.60% 10:00A.M. RICHMOND FED MANUFACT. INDEX MARCH 5.O 2.O 10:00A.M. EXISTING HOME SALES MoM FEB. -1.40% -7.20% HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

EURUSD moves to new lows in early NY trading but has support Posted: 23 Mar 2010 04:56 AM PDT The EURUSD is making new day lows in early NY trade. No US data is out until 10AM when the Existing Home Sales and Richmond Fed are released.  The expectation is for 5.00M units down from 5.05M units. Month supply rose to 7.8 months last month after falling to 6.5 months in November . Richmond Fed is expected to rise to 5 from 2.  This index has been as high as 7 and as low as -4 in the last 5 months.  Canada has Leading indicators due out at 8:30 MA with expectations at  0.9% vs +0.9% last month. This would be the 9th straight month above 0 and extends the string of strong economic data for Canada.    From a technical perspective, the EURUSD has resumed its downward bias. The pair is testing the 61.8% retracement of the 2009 low to high move in the pair. That level comes in at 1.3482.  A move below, next targets the triple bottom from Feb/Mar between 1.3437-51.  The lows during that period were 1.3444, 1.3451 and 1.3437 in that order.   Needless to say that area should provide good support  and will need to be conquered for momentum down to continue.   Other downside support comes out at 1.3423 which is the low from May 2009 and below that longer term targets extend down to 1.3245 and 1.2897 which were the lows going back to the 1st half of 2009 (see daily chart above).  The 2009 low was 1.2456.  This too will be a downside target if the bearish bias picks up steam and focus remains on the EU situation.  On the topside, if the market disappoints from not being able to extend below the 1.3482 level, the EURUSD  has initial upside target resistance at 1.3502 and above that the 1.3513 level - the price we have been watching over the last few days.   The 100 hour moving average on the 5 minute chart comes in at the 1.3524 level and moving lower.   The midpoint of the days range is 1.3522. The EURUSD is being pressured by the Greece situation which will continue to be an ongong saga. As long as the focus can remain on “that story”, the pair will continue to trade toward the low end of the 2010 range.   The key words are “that story” as we know focus can shift on a dime in these markets. Down the road, there may be focus back on the US debt issues and overactive government involvement.  The Republicans will start to incite public outcry on the US health care issues and this will likely make for an election cycle that focuses on unseating the heavy spenders - and judging from reaction they may be successful.  It is hard to imagine that with so many in Congress, that not one Republican voted for the health care bill. Not one.   That is a divide, and a divide pitting one versus the other.  When there is so much bi-polar tension, the goals of what should be accomplished for the best of the people, gets clouded with ideological decisions and an us versus them attitude.  The parading around Capitol Hill is an example of that attitude.   Of course, there is the economy and the verdict is out on whether the jobs will be created to spur on the growth that would benefit the dollar over and extended period to keep the EURUSD working its way down.  The spending is there, but will it create the jobs or will it just take more money out of consumers pockets, increase the debt burden for generations, incite a lack of continuity and direction for Washington, and make things worse in the long term  All of which may not be good for the dollar nor the fabric of a nation. Divided we stand is not a positive foundation to build on.  Time will tell.

March 23rd 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is avaiable for trading Posted: 23 Mar 2010 04:23 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

UK CBI Realized Sales Posted: 23 Mar 2010 04:03 AM PDT CBI realized sales was 13, lower than its forecast of 18 and no where near its prior reading of 23.

ECB’s Constancio on the wires….. Posted: 23 Mar 2010 03:30 AM PDT Vitor Constancio of the European Central Bank has released the following comments: There is risk of early exits from support measures. Does not see double dip recession from debt withdrawal. As long as we have depressed economy, there is no risk from inflation. Markets are not frozen any more. Economic cycles in different parts of the eurozone are not so different. There is still some remaining doubt about instruments given to systemic risk body. Securities area should be treated separately in regulation. Banking and insurance should be dealt with together in regulation. Need to resolve the conflict of interest with rating agencies. There is risk to be avoided in the timing of new regulatory measures. The problem of “too big to fail” might be becoming worse as surviving banks are bigger. The main regulation moves are supervision of leverage and international regulations of liquidity buffers. Big countries with big current account imbalances have to do their duty to avoid new crises. Stability must be reinforced in eurozone fiscal policies. Changes in the areas of stability and growth are needed.

BBA Mortgage Approvals/ RPI Posted: 23 Mar 2010 02:38 AM PDT Also released at the same time as CPI was BBA mortgage approvals and retail price index out of the UK: BBA Mortgage Approvals - Survey: 34.3K   Actual: 35.3K   Prior: 35.1K RPI (y/y) - Survey: 3.7%   Actual: 3.7%   Prior: 3.7%

UK CPI Posted: 23 Mar 2010 02:34 AM PDT UK CPI saw its first fall of a year over year reading since September 2009 after February’s readings did not meet their expectations. The GBP/USD pair also reached a new session low of 1.4993 following the release of the data. The details are as follows: CPI (y/y) - Survey: 3.1%   Actual: 3.0%    Prior: 3.5% Core CPI (y/y) - Survey: 3.0%   Actual: 2.9%   Prior: 3.1%

Usd/Chf finds resistance, for now Posted: 23 Mar 2010 01:23 AM PDT As cited in an earlier post, Usd/Chf found resistance at the 61.8% fibo of 1.0623. Though it did spike up to 1.0638 briefly, the pair has since retreated back to its 200 hour M/A and has now settled down to trade either side of the 50% fibo of 1.0611. If the pair holds above the move upward should be more decisive, with Usd/Chf  testing the 1.0638 high.

SNB’s Hildebrand Speaks Posted: 23 Mar 2010 12:51 AM PDT The following comments were made by SNB Chairman Philipp Hildebrand during his speech “The SNB’s Monetary Policy during the Financial Crisis” at the University in St. Gallen. SNB will counter excessive rise of franc. SNB will not allow franc appreciation to lead to deflation risks. Forecasts show that price stability is not in danger in the short term. Forecasts show that expansionary monetary policy cannot be kept over the long term. The position of the SNB is clear; will we not allow materialisation of deflation risks. SNB has means to fight excessive franc rise. The Swiss National Bank can buy very large quantities of foreign currencies. Immediately following the release of these statements EUR/CHF traded 50 pips lower making a new session low of 1.4329.  Additionally, during this move, the pair also broke through the 61.8% fibonacci level on the hourly chart.

Usd/Chf above 200 hour M/A, trying to break out of tight range Posted: 22 Mar 2010 11:15 PM PDT Usd/Chf has been stuck in a tight range in during a very quiet Asian session. The pair is just starting to show signs of life with a methodical move above its 200 hour M/A of 1.0603. It is also trading  just at the 50% Fibo retracement of the move down from 1.0661 to 1.0561. If the pair could hold above 1.0603 (200 hour M/A) look for a move to 1.0625-30 where we should find some resistance. A further push should bring Usd/Chf to 1.0655-60 signifying a full retracement. A failed break should send Usd/Chf back to 1.0585-90 and then eventually to the 100 hour M/A of 1.0577 where good support should lie.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• German Foreign Minister continues the bickering
• USDJPY falls below 100 day MA at 90.06
• Forex Morning Report - March 22
• EURUSD heads below 1.3500 as Greek comments weigh.
• USDCHF moving above the 200 hour MA
• FXDD Webinar Tuesday March 23rd 4pm
• GBPUSD having trouble moving from the lows. Budget on Wednesday
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.22.2010
• Fed’s Bullard on the newswires
• EURUSD testing support as NY day gets underway
• March 22 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Usd/Chf bounces off 100 hour M/A, now tests 200 hour
• EUR/USD breaks trend, but can’t hold….
• Usd/Chf hovering above 100 hour M/A after moderate selling
• Gbp/Usd threatens move below daily trendline

German Foreign Minister continues the bickering Posted: 22 Mar 2010 07:16 AM PDT Says does not want to put money on table for Greece as would take pressure off of them. Also, they must look out for its taxpayers. The bickering continues.

USDJPY falls below 100 day MA at 90.06 Posted: 22 Mar 2010 06:31 AM PDT The USDJPY could not extend above the 90.72 resistance area (yellow line in the chart above) with any conviction, coupled with health care stock selling and Eurozone bickering has the market selling the risky currency pairs. This has sent the USDJPY sharply lower.  In the process, the 100 and 200 hour MAs were broken (at 90.40 area) and now the price has also moved back below the 100 day MA at 90.06.  A close below this level today will continue the bearish bias for that pair and target support at the 89.75 and 89.59 level (50% of the March low to high range). Look for sellers against the 100 day MA at the 90.06 now. The market has only one close below this moving average in the last 12 trading days.  The price has dipped below the line (blue line in the chart below) but each time the price has rebounded. Will today be the day, the market gives up and the downside is explored again?

Forex Morning Report - March 22 Posted: 22 Mar 2010 06:30 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

EURUSD heads below 1.3500 as Greek comments weigh. Posted: 22 Mar 2010 05:54 AM PDT The EURUSD has headed back below the 1.3500 level. The Greek Deputy PM Theodoros Pangalos, was on the wires saying that the Germans want to the EURO to weaken to boost exports. He also added that Germany allows its banks to speculate against Greece. This internal bickering is not what the EU needs as it deals with the crisis.  Germany’s Merkel continues to chatter about Greek getting its own debt in order. Next support at 1.3460 for the pair. On the topside 1.3500 and then 1.3513 is now the resistance.

USDCHF moving above the 200 hour MA Posted: 22 Mar 2010 05:48 AM PDT The USDCHF moved above the 200 hour MA at the 1.0617 level.  We need to see the momentum to the upside now for the pair to help confirm the directional move. The move above the key moving average is the first move since March 10th.  The SNB reiterated this morning that it will continue to act decisively to prevent an excessive appreciation of the CHF.   The next topside target is 1.0655 where the 50% retracement comes in at 1.0655.  On the downside, watch the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.0608/13 level.

FXDD Webinar Tuesday March 23rd 4pm Posted: 22 Mar 2010 05:48 AM PDT FXDD Webinar Tuesday March 23rd 4pm - Register Here

GBPUSD having trouble moving from the lows. Budget on Wednesday Posted: 22 Mar 2010 05:27 AM PDT The UK Budget on Wednesday will be a tough one for Chancellor of Exchequer AllistaIr Darling. Balancing stimulus with debt will be a difficult act. Add to it the party loyalty implications as the UK moves toward  a tough election battle.  Last week BOE Sentance warned of a possible double dip   What to do?  As a result, the pair may continue to remain contained near the bottom of the range.  From a technical perspective, the price is trying to move and maintain the price above the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.4986 level. The price trended below this moving average level since last Thursday when it last broke at the . Today the price has been able to extend briefly above on a few occassions but the moves are unimpressive and the price has dipped back below at the 1.5295 area. The pair has been consolidating at the lows with little in the way of upside momentum.  The high today reached 1.5026 in the first hour of trading. The close from Friday came in at 1.5015.  These levels will be eyed on the topside as resistance levels.  A break above each will be needed to spur on additional short covering. The upside targets on a break would look toward the 1.5082 level which is the 38.2% of the move down from March 18th (see chart above).  On the downside, the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at 1.4969 and will be eyed as support for the pair.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.22.2010 Posted: 22 Mar 2010 05:14 AM PDT Good Morning: The USD was stronger overnight as continued concerns that growing government debts will put a damper on economic recovery moved investors to the safety of the greenback.  The USD was also helped by German Chancellor Merkel who told investors that they should not expect the EU summit scheduled for later this week to agree on any aid package for Greece.   If no agreement is reached the euro will continue to be under pressure. On another note, India raised  interest rates last week-as a way to keep inflation in check.  In the past few months Austrailia and Malaysia also raised their interest rates, as their economies show signs of recovery. China imposed higher reserve requirements for their banks, as their economy grows at record levels. Equity markets were mostly lower, and US Futures are also pointing to a lower opening this morning. Japan was closed for Equinox Day. Oil:$79.32                                           Gold:$1102.40       TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 8:30A.M. CHICAGO FED NAT. ACTIVITY INDEX FEB. 0.O2 HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Fed’s Bullard on the newswires Posted: 22 Mar 2010 05:06 AM PDT Says “Extended Period” language puts the Fed in a box. I would have to agree with that but it is the direction they chose in the past.  He also comments that it is not a good idea to reveal who is borrowing from the Discount Window.

EURUSD testing support as NY day gets underway Posted: 22 Mar 2010 04:53 AM PDT The market is testing support level in early NY trade. The 1.3513 level  was a key level the market used as support earlier in the month when the EURUSD was last at this level.  The market used the level as support, fell through then rallied from the level.  Over the last few days the price has been a level the market has gravitated toward.  Each time the price has dipped the market rallied back above.   Watch this level this morning. If the support is going to hold the price needs to get back above the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.3517 and 1.3520 level respectively (blue and green lines in the chart below). Otherwise an move back toward the lows is more likely.

March 22 2010 NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 22 Mar 2010 04:22 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

Usd/Chf bounces off 100 hour M/A, now tests 200 hour Posted: 22 Mar 2010 04:13 AM PDT As noted in an earlier post Usd/Chf met some good support around 1.0575-80 level with the 100 hour M/A sitting at 1.0573. It has since rebounded and now threatens to break above the 200 hour M/A at 1.0617. This area should be a good level of resistance in a session that has seen a tight range. If the pair hold a move back to 1.0600 is likely. A break above should bring Usd/Chf at least to 1.0635.

EUR/USD breaks trend, but can’t hold…. Posted: 22 Mar 2010 03:20 AM PDT The EUR/USD broke through a trendline on the 15 minute chart when it made it’s session high of 1.3546, but it could not establish itself above the line. The trendline, which started on March 17 is now parallel with the 100 bar moving average at 1.3532.  Additionally, there is further resistance at this level with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement on the hourly chart also coming in at 1.3532.

Usd/Chf hovering above 100 hour M/A after moderate selling Posted: 22 Mar 2010 02:15 AM PDT Usd/Chf is currently jsut above its 100 hour M/A of 1.0573. the pair has traded down from its 200 hour M/A of 1.0618 within the last couple of hours of trading. This area should be a level of suport for Usd/Chf with the 61.8% fibo adding some support at 1.0581. If it holds look for a move back above 1.0600. A further decline and break of 1.0573 should bring the pair down to 1.0540-50 level. I suspect the support should hold in the short term.

Gbp/Usd threatens move below daily trendline Posted: 21 Mar 2010 09:31 PM PDT Within the last hour Gbp/Usd has traded below a trendline connecting three daily lows dating back to March 1st. Though it is below the trendline for today’s trading (1.4985) a true confirmation of Gbp bearishness would occur with a close below this level. In any event keep a close eye on this area as it may determine the direction for the pair for future days. A true break below could send Gbp/Usd down to 1.4500-20 level which signifies lows dating back to April 2009.

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