Monday, April 26, 2010

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

EU’s Rehn says EU, ECB and IMF will complete Greek review in time

Posted: 26 Apr 2010 06:58 AM PDT

The clock is ticking and until it is done, the market will remain a bit skeptical.

Germany’s Merkel on the newswires

Posted: 26 Apr 2010 06:47 AM PDT

Says Greece must show budget cuts to get German aid.

France Lagarde on the newswires

Posted: 26 Apr 2010 06:36 AM PDT

Says:

  • ECB, EU currently “negotiating” Greece Plan
  • Civil servants salaries must be cut by a significant amount
  • IMF brings experience to the problem
  • Experience, wisdom, moderation must guide the crisis response.
  • Europe, Japan and UK slow growth. US and Asia (China) fastest.
  • G20 calls for more balanced global growth.
  • Need sustainable growth, not just fiscally sponsored growth.
  • Credit expansion is key to economic growth.

NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing

Posted: 26 Apr 2010 06:23 AM PDT

Forex QUICK: USDJPY consolidating today but concerns about debt remains.

Posted: 26 Apr 2010 06:00 AM PDT

EURUSD tests 1.3343-46 intraday resistance in early NY trading

Posted: 26 Apr 2010 05:48 AM PDT

Forex QUICK: GBPUSD remains supported in early NY trade

Posted: 26 Apr 2010 05:39 AM PDT

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.26.2010

Posted: 26 Apr 2010 05:11 AM PDT

bob-slade-forex-2-150x200Good Morning:

The Euro dropped as concerns that EU countries will have hurdles as they look to ratify the aid package to Greece.
With Southern European countries like Spain, Portugal, and Italy also facing sovereign debt issues-the Euro will continue to be under pressure.  
The spread between Greek and German bonds has widened to over 600 basis points-showing the marketplaces uncertainty regarding Greece.

Asian equity markets were mixed-European markets are higher-and US Futures are also pointing to a higher opening this morning.

Oil:$85.37                                                      Gold:$1156.60

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

The NY Morning Forex Report is available for viewing

Posted: 26 Apr 2010 04:32 AM PDT

Merkel to Speak at 3 p.m. in Berlin

Posted: 26 Apr 2010 03:38 AM PDT

A German government spokesperson confirmed in a phone interview today that Angela Merkel, German Chancellor, will make comments today at 3 p.m. (local time) on Greek aid situation.

USD/CHF finds 38.2% Retracement

Posted: 26 Apr 2010 02:45 AM PDT

On the hourly chart, USD/CHF poked its head above the 38.2% retracement level when it made its session high of 1.0787. The pair has found support from the 100 hour moving average twice today and has not traded below the 100 hour line since April 16th. If it can close above the 38.2% level, this could be a bullish sign for the pair. If resistance is found, the next key downside level is the 50.0% fibo at 1.0761 and further lower is the 61.8% at 1.0741.

swiss-hourly

Germany’s Indecision to Help Greece is Weighing on the Euro

Posted: 26 Apr 2010 02:25 AM PDT

Comments have come out of Germany that they are still indecisive and are dragging their feet to provide aid to Greece; EUR/USD traded lower on the back on this news and the pair made a new session low of 1.3310. Also, 2 year Greek note yields rose 211 basis points to 13.04%.

Additionally, the EUR/USD broke through the 38.2% retracement on the hourly chart and the pair has not been able to close above the 100 hour MAVG (1.3374)so far today. To the downside, there have been some hourly openings at 1.3285 in the past week, there may be possible support here, and the topside brings us back to the 38.2% fibo line and further higher is the 50.0% at 1.3362.

 

425-eur

Greek minister says IMF debt talks are ‘going well’ -BBC

Posted: 25 Apr 2010 10:36 AM PDT

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8642941.stm

What concerns me about the story is potential for failure and the ideas for debt reduction.  France and Germany are drawing a line in the sand that Greece must take full responsibility for their actions and that if they don’t, funding will be stopped. In addition, there is the question of public support in the “have” countries.   The moral hazards of bailouts are difficult to swallow and can threaten the fabric of the stronger countries society. 

Finally, the idea for debt reduction are of a concern to me.  Specifically, Greek Minister Papaconstantinou “suggested his country could raise funds by embarking on a privatisation programme” and that  “There are many options that will allow us to gain by reducing the stake in public companies. The Greek state has an enormous number of real estate assets, over hundreds of billions.”

The thing about real estate assets in this overvalued, bubble busting age is it is an expensive asset, and market liquidity is low.  Moreover, what is the liability side owed on the assets.  That is, are the assets financed with government debt and are the assets upside down when compared to the potential selling price.   It does not matter what the asset value is if the liability is greater.  It is unclear what can be sold and at what price and when.  That would be my fear that could cause the house of cards to all fall down. Now, he does say they number in the hundreds of billions so in theory if they need $50-60 billion, selling the assets could solve the problem, but show me the assets first and show me the willing buyers. 

There is no doubt that the money for the rollover of the May debt obligation will be found.  It is not clear from a fundamental standpoint if the ship can be righted in the long run.

Saturday, April 24, 2010

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Weekend Forex Report: Key Economic Releases and Events

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 01:32 PM PDT

Weekend Forex Report: EURUSD

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 01:17 PM PDT

Weekend Forex Report: GBPUSD

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 01:16 PM PDT

Weekend Forex Report: USDJPY

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 01:15 PM PDT

Weekend Forex Report: USDCHF

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 01:14 PM PDT

Weekend Forex Report: USDCAD

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 01:14 PM PDT

Weekend Forex Report: AUDUSD

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 01:14 PM PDT

Weekend Forex Report: NZDUSD

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 01:13 PM PDT

Forex QUICK: $USDCHF tests key support

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 11:49 AM PDT

Forex QUICK: EURUSD tests 100 hour MA

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 11:34 AM PDT

German Finance Minister on the newswire

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 11:21 AM PDT

German Finance Minister Schaeuble says Euro will be defended and “we will win”.
Also says no German Budget money will be used to help Greece.

Strong words that should help the EURUSD

UK Darling on newswires

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 10:56 AM PDT

He weighs in on Greece saying that lack of Greece plan will hold back confidence and that a plan needs to be done “now”. He seems a bit surprised with the delay.

The NY Midday Forex Commentary is available for viewing

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 09:22 AM PDT

The Midday Forex Video Report looks at the EURUSD, GBPUSD, EURGBP, USDJPY, USDCAD and NZDUSD.

The Greece Relief will not be simple.

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 08:20 AM PDT

The Greece situation will likely take some time to enact. What makes it more tenuous then say a similar relief measure in the USA is that it will require some sort of vote of acceptance by each EU member country before funds can be released. There also is the question of what Greece will do in order to prove they are worthy of the funds and the IMFs requirements.

Needless to say there may be the balking from the “have’s” and the “have not” countries/population which could politicize the aid while this is all taking place. What happens if the German public protest or if Spain, Italy or Portugal find the economic burden a problem.

What the Greeks seem to finally realize is the market will not give them an out via lower debt yields. They have to refund maturing debt in mid-May and at 8% or 9% (or higher) it simply will make matters worse from their debt perspective.

How ever it plays out, I do not think it will come and go quietly.

Forex QUICK: EURUSD surges higher as shorts squeezed

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 07:46 AM PDT

EURUSD squeezes higher as weekend approaches

Friday, April 23, 2010

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

New Home Sales come in much better than expected

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 07:01 AM PDT

The New Home Sales came in better than expected at  411K from a prior 308K.  This is a lot stronger than the expectations at 325k. New Home Sales (m/m)  came in at 26.9% from a survey of 5.5%. Largest rise since April of 1963.

EURUSD moves higher pre-New Home Sales data.

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 06:54 AM PDT

fxdd-pic-0235…no news. EURGBP spikes higher as well.

NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 06:41 AM PDT

Report looks at EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCAD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD.

Germans Merkel on the newswires

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 06:37 AM PDT

Says IMF and ECB must assess Greek program before aid flow.

Spain says it will support the Greek aid package

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 06:26 AM PDT

The question is if they do, where will they get the funds to bailout. Yesterday it was reported that Spains government to GDP ratio was 11.2% which is not much better than Greeces 14% for 2009. This is the rub which should continue to weigh on the EURUSD.

ECB Weber on the newswires

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 06:16 AM PDT

Says Euro does not have a problem because of Greece. He also adds that the recovery of the world economy has strengthened and the G20 would discuss the Yuan and global imbalances.

Forex QUICK: EURUSD loses the upward momentum as focus switches to stronger US data

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 05:50 AM PDT

Forex QUICK: Canada data today pushes $USDCAD up toward 1.0060 resistance level

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 05:43 AM PDT

Durable Goods Orders and Durables Ex Transportation

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 05:36 AM PDT

The following are the readings from Durable Goods orders and Durables Ex Transportation

  • Durable Goods:                               Survey: 0.2%   Actual: -1.3%   Prior: 0.5%
  • Durables Ex Transportation:    Survey: 0.2%   Actual:   0.2%   Prior: 0.4%

Durable Goods better than expected. Canada Retail sales worse than expected

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 05:34 AM PDT

Economic releases and events for April 23rd

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 05:16 AM PDT

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.23.2020

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 05:08 AM PDT

bob-slade-forex-trading-8-150x200Good Morning:

The Euro rebounded from a one year low vs USD after Greece announces that it needs to accept the emergency funding being offered by the EU and IMF.  The Euro rose as concerns that Greece will be able to repay short term debt eased. The IFO report on German business confidence also rose which helped the Euro too.
The GBP lost ground as data from the UK showed that the GDP for Q1 rose .2%, half of what was expected (.4%).

Asian equity markets fell-but Europe was higher,  With Volvo posting an unexpected profit, Adidas raising earnings forecast, and better than expected data from Germany’s IFO-the equity markets stayed positive.  US Futures are also pointing to a positive opening in NY this morning.

Oil:$83.59                                  Gold:$1140.50

TIME FOR  EST PRIOR       REV.
8:30A.M. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS  MAR. 0.20% 0.50% 0.90%
8:30A.M. DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION MAR. 0.70% 0.90% 1.40%
10:00A.M. NEW HOME SALES  MAR. 325K 308K
10:00A.M. NEW HOME SALES MoM MAR. 5.50% -2.20%  

HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 04:51 AM PDT

Source says some Fed officials are in favor of selling assets

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 04:43 AM PDT

The Feds Balance Sheet is still bloated with assets well above what is normal due to the quantitative measures enacted to aid the financial markets over the last few years. CNBC reports that there are up to 6 Fed members who are looking to selling some of the assets and start moving the Feds balance sheet to more normal levels. This has led to a move higher in the USDJPY as a result.

Canada CPI

Posted: 23 Apr 2010 04:03 AM PDT

The following are the readings from Canada’s CPI release.

  • Core CPI (m/m) - Survey: 0.1%   Actual: -0.2%   Prior: 0.7%
  • CPI (m/m) - Survey: 0.2%   Actual: 0.2%   Prior: 0.4%

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Existing Home Sales come in at 5.35 million annualized rate

Posted: 22 Apr 2010 07:03 AM PDT

The Existing Home sales came in at 5.35 million annualized rate. This was higher than the 5.29M expectation. The Month supply fell to 8.0 months from the surprise 8.5 month supply last month.

Housing in the US continues to be a drag but any improvement is certainly welcomed.

Forex Quick USDCAD tests key resistance ahead of BOC Monetary Policy Report

Posted: 22 Apr 2010 06:53 AM PDT


Forex QUICK: EURUSD breaks key support. Pressure on the pair continues

Posted: 22 Apr 2010 06:40 AM PDT


Forex Morning Report - April 22

Posted: 22 Apr 2010 06:30 AM PDT


Forex QUICK: GBPUSD tests support at 1.5365 area

Posted: 22 Apr 2010 05:49 AM PDT


Bobbys Corner-Open Market-April.22.2010

Posted: 22 Apr 2010 05:45 AM PDT

bob-slade-forex-trading-6-150x200Good Morning:

The Euro took another round of battering in overnight markets, as data shows  that Greece’s budget deficit was worse than expected.  The markets are preparing for Greece to start utilizing the aid package set up b y the EU and IMF.
The JPY also rose-as investors look for a safe haven. The GBP rose today as the BOE showed that U.K. lenders increased home lending last month.

Today President Obama is expected to speak in New York-and he will take aim at the “risky decisions” made on Wall Street.  The markets are wary about what the President may say regarding  new financial-industry regulations that the administration is tyring to implement.

Oil:$82.80                                                         Gold:$1140.90         

PPI actual= +.7 (higher than expected)
Jobless claims= -456K  (expected)
  

TIME FOR  EST PRIOR
8:30A.M. PPI MoM MAR. 0.50% -0.60%
8:30A.M. PPI EX FOOD & ENERGY MoM MAR. 0.10% 0.10%
8:30A.M. PPI YoY MAR. 6.00% 4.40%
8:30A.M. PPI EX FOOD & ENERGY YoY MAR. 0.90% 1.00%
8:30A.M. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS 17-Apr 450K 484K
8:30A.M. CONTINUING CLAIMS 10-Apr 4600K 4639K
9:00A.M. RPX COMPOSITE 28 DY INDEX  28-Feb 185.8O
9:00A.M. RPX COMPOSITE 28 DY YoY FEB. -0.51%
10:00A.M. EXISTING HOME SALE S      MAR.      5.29M 5.02M
10:00A.M. EXISTING HOME SALES MoM      MAR. 5.30% -0.60%
10:00A.M. HOUSE PRICE INDEX MoM      FEB. -0.20% -0.60%

TODAY IS EARTH DAY (40 year anniversary)
HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Forex QUICK: Economic Release Review

Posted: 22 Apr 2010 05:37 AM PDT


Forex QUICK: EURUSD corrects off of support. Watching upside resistance

Posted: 22 Apr 2010 05:11 AM PDT


The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing

Posted: 22 Apr 2010 04:01 AM PDT


UK CBI Industrial Order Expectations

Posted: 22 Apr 2010 03:27 AM PDT

CBI Industrial Order Expectations came in at -36, weaker than the -32 expected, but a slight improvemeent over the prior reading of -37.

Gbp/Usd trades at either side of 1.5400.

Greece and Ireland’s 2009 budget deficit at 14.0% of GDP

Posted: 22 Apr 2010 02:07 AM PDT

The EU stated that Greece’s 2009 budget deficit was 13.6% of GDP and Ireland’s was 14.3% of GDP, both exceeding estimates for the EU nations.

This continues to paint a not so rosy view of the eurozone as Eur/Usd is off 30 points since release of this news to trade at 1.3388.

Fitch says Japan’s credit rating at risk

Posted: 22 Apr 2010 02:02 AM PDT

Japan’s sovereign credit worthiness is at risk from rising government debt, according to credit rating agency Fitch.

The Jpy has gained against all majors with Usd/Jpy up to 93.30, eur/Jpy 125.10 and Gbp/Jpy to 144.08.

UK Public Sector Net Borrowing & Mortgage Approvals

Posted: 22 Apr 2010 01:37 AM PDT

UK Public Sector Net Borrowing came in at 23.5 Bln, weaker than the 24.1 Bln expected but far exceeding the last reading of 12.4 Bln.

Preliminary Mortgage Approvals came in at 52,000, slightly stronger than the 51,000 expected and prior reading of 48,000.

UK Retail Sales

Posted: 22 Apr 2010 01:34 AM PDT

UK Retail Sales m/m came in at 0.4%, weaker than the 0.6% expected. Y/ycame in at 2.2%, weaker than the 2.3% expected.

Weaker than expected retail sales figures for a market which was rumored to see a stronger reading. Gbp/Usd initial reaction was a spike up to 1.5460 and has abrubtly given back the 30 point gain to trade at pre-number level of 1.5430.

Eurozone Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI

Posted: 22 Apr 2010 01:01 AM PDT

Eurozone Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 57.5, stronger than the 56.7 expected.

Eurozone Flash Services PMI came in at 55.5, stronger than the 54.4 expected.

More strong numbers out of the Eurozone as Eur/Usd is just off session highs at 1.3415.