Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Mexican Unemployment Rate Higher

Posted: 25 May 2010 07:08 AM PDT

Mexico Unemployment rate today increases to 5.40% vs the prior number of 4.81%. Unemployment rate at same figure as February rate.

Richmond Fed Same as Expected, Consumer Confidence Higher

Posted: 25 May 2010 07:02 AM PDT

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index:      Survey: 26     Actual: 26     Prior: 30   

fxdd_region_0029

Consumer Confidence:       Survey: 58.5    Actual: 63.3      Prior: 57.9     Revised: 57.7

fxdd_region_0030

House Price Index (MoM):                         Survey: 0.0%    Actual:  .3%   Prior: -0.2%    Revised: -.4%

House Price Purachase Index (QoQ):     Actual:  -3.1 %      Prior: -0.1%   

fxdd_region_0031

FOREX QUICK: USD/CHF coming off the highs

Posted: 25 May 2010 06:59 AM PDT

FOREX QUICK: USD/CHF coming off the highs

FOREX QUICK: USD/CAD testing higher highs

Posted: 25 May 2010 06:25 AM PDT

FOREX QUICK: USD/CAD testing higher highs

Richmond Fed & Consumer Confidence US Releases Due at 10AM also Along with House Price Index

Posted: 25 May 2010 06:19 AM PDT

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index:      Survey: 26     Actual:     Prior: 30    Revised:

Consumer Confidence:                             Survey: 58.5    Actual:       Prior: 57.9     Revised:

House Price Index (MoM):                         Survey: 0.0%    Actual:     Prior: -0.2%    Revised:

House Price Purachase Index (QoQ):    Survey:          Actual:          Prior:          Revised:

US S&P Data Stays According to Survey

Posted: 25 May 2010 06:07 AM PDT

fxdd_region_0028

S&P/CS Composite-20 (YOY):           Survey: 2.5%     Actual: 2.3%     Prior: 0.6%    Revised: .7%

S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind:    Survey:     Actual: 143.4    Prior: 144.0     Revised: 144.1

S&P/CS 20 City (MoM%) SA:              Survey: -0.30%     Actual: -.05%     Prior: -0.10%     Revised: -.145

S&P/CaseShiller US HPI:                     Survey:     Actual: 131.8     Prior: 136.1    Revised: 136.2

S&P/CaseShiller US HPI (YoY%):    Survey: 3.2%    Actual: 2.0%    Prior: -2.5%     Revised: -2.3%

Forex Morning Report - May 25th

Posted: 25 May 2010 05:45 AM PDT

Forex Morning Report - May 25th

US S&P CaseShiller Data Due at 9AM

Posted: 25 May 2010 05:40 AM PDT

S&P/CS Composite-20 (YOY):           Survey: 2.5%     Actual:     Prior: 0.6%    Revised:

S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind:    Survey:     Actual:     Prior: 144.0     Revised:

S&P/CS 20 City (MoM%) SA:              Survey: -0.30%     Actual:     Prior: -0.10%     Revised:

S&P/CaseShiller US HPI:                     Survey:     Actual:     Prior: 136.1    Revised:

S&P/CaseShiller US HPI (YoY%):    Survey: 3.2%    Actual:     Prior: -2.5%     Revised:

Eurozone Industrial New Orders

Posted: 25 May 2010 02:03 AM PDT

Eurozone Industrial New Orders m/m came in at 5.2%, stronger than the 2.2% expected and prior reading of 1.5%.

This positive data for the Euro has had little affect on the market as Eur/Usd received an initial pop of 10 points but has since declined below 1.2200, challenging session low of 1.2191.

UK Revised GDP as expected

Posted: 25 May 2010 01:34 AM PDT

UK Revised GDP q/q came in at 0.3% as expected, but an upward revision from the preliminary 0.2% reading.

GBP remains soft as Gbp/Usd continues to trade either side of 1.4300, Gbp/Jpy 128.50 and Eur/Gbp .8550.

Eur/Usd continues slide

Posted: 25 May 2010 12:38 AM PDT

Eur/usd has looked bearish since Sunday’s open. The pair is trading firmly below the 61.8% fibo (1.2346) of move up from 1.2146 to 1.2670. The 1.2220-30 level should act as short term support with 1.2146 the pairs ultimate target to the downside. To the upside 1.2346 should act as good resistance.

vincent_fx00080

As equities go so goes Eur/Jpy

Posted: 24 May 2010 10:25 PM PDT

Eur/Jpy is again steadily selling off.  The S&P 500 was off 14.04 today as Eur/Jpy traded down to 111.07. The S&P futures are currently down 16.40, bringing the index to 1054.60. Not coincidentally, Eur/Jpy is also trading lower with the session low thus far at 110.50. The pair continues to look offered as do the equity markets. How the European markets open may be a good indicator on the next direction for Eur/Jpy.

The next level of support for the pair lies at 110.20, an area of old hourly lows. After that a full retracement of move up from 109.45 to 114.40 is likely.

To the upside 111.34 is the 61.8% fibo and should provide resistance, although it doesn’t appear that level will come into play in the short term.

vincent_fx00079

5-25 Economic Calendar

Posted: 24 May 2010 08:36 PM PDT

region_forex_00087

Forex Evening Report - May 24th

Posted: 24 May 2010 01:30 PM PDT

Forex Evening Report - May 24th

FOREX QUICK: EUR/GBP Facing downside pressure over past 24H

Posted: 24 May 2010 12:17 PM PDT

FOREX QUICK: EUR/GBP facing downside pressure over past 25h
Posted by at No comments:

Monday, May 24, 2010

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Forex Midday Report - May 24th

Posted: 24 May 2010 09:25 AM PDT


Forex Midday Report - May 24th

FOREX QUICK: USD/CHF testing key levels

Posted: 24 May 2010 08:41 AM PDT

FOREX QUICK: USD/CHF testing key levels

On the wires: German Govt prepares for massive debt reduction

Posted: 24 May 2010 07:54 AM PDT

The German government is about to begin a major budget austerity program into 2011. Some are calling it a "Debt guillotine" which has been written into the German constitution. The cuts are expected to amount to total of at least 10 billion Euros ($13 billion USD) per year until 2016

FOREX QUICK: GBP/USD Testing a move below major 1H support

Posted: 24 May 2010 07:26 AM PDT

FOREX QUICK: GBP/USD Testing a move below major 1H support

On the wires: LIBOR Rate increases to .51%

Posted: 24 May 2010 07:13 AM PDT

The London interbank offered rate, or Libor, advanced today to 0.51%, the highest level since July 16 2009, from 0.497% at the end of last week, according to data from the British Bankers' Association.

The three-month rate increased for the 12th consecutive week last week even as the European Union announced a near $1 trillion aid initative for its most indebted members. Among the measures announced, the U.S. Federal Reserve reopened dollar currency swaps with major central banks to alleviate funding pressures facing the euro-region lenders.

FOREX QUICK: USD/CAD testing 38.2% retracement level

Posted: 24 May 2010 07:04 AM PDT

FOREX QUICK: USD/CAD testing 38.2% retracement level

US Existing Home Sales Data Positive

Posted: 24 May 2010 07:01 AM PDT

Existing Home Sales:        Survey: 5.64M           Actual: 5.77M           Prior: 5.35M         Revised: 5.36M

Existing Home Sales(MoM):     Survey: 5.3%           Actual: 7.6%           Prior: 6.8%         Revised: 7.0%

fxdd_region_0027

Forex Morning Report - May 24th

Posted: 24 May 2010 05:50 AM PDT

Watch the new FXDD Forex Report now

5-24 Economic Calendar

Posted: 23 May 2010 08:32 PM PDT

region_forex_00086

UBS Comments on FX

Posted: 23 May 2010 05:17 PM PDT

  • USD may become growth currency in coming decade.
  • Dollar to shed haven status as US outpaces Europe.
  • ECB to face more pressure to intervene amid crisis.
  • Volatility makes central bank intervention likelier.
  • Oil nations may start to favor the USD more.

The dollar opened firmer against the euro by ~40 pips from last weeks close and has traded in a tight range to open the trading week. The pair has found support on Friday of last week and continues to gain a bid around the 1.25 handle, the 38.2% retracement of last weeks move.

eurusd12

Register for the Tuesday FXDD Webinar now

Posted: 23 May 2010 03:48 PM PDT

webinar-button-banner

Register for the Tuesday May 25th FXDD Webinar now - Register Here
Posted by at No comments:

Saturday, May 22, 2010

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

The Key US Economic News and Events for next week

Posted: 21 May 2010 01:07 PM PDT

EURUSD Weekend Forex Commentary

Posted: 21 May 2010 12:51 PM PDT

GBPUSD Weekend Forex Commentary

Posted: 21 May 2010 12:50 PM PDT


GBPUSD Weekend Forex Commentary

USDJPY Weekend Forex Commentary

Posted: 21 May 2010 12:50 PM PDT


USDJPY Weekend Forex Commentary

USDCAD Weekend Forex Commentary

Posted: 21 May 2010 12:49 PM PDT


USDCAD Weekend Forex Commentary

AUDUSD Weekend Forex Commentary

Posted: 21 May 2010 12:48 PM PDT

Forex Midday Report - May 21

Posted: 21 May 2010 09:25 AM PDT

Forex QUICK USDCAD moves toward Fibonacci support at 1.0556

Posted: 21 May 2010 08:34 AM PDT

ECB Trichet on the newswires

Posted: 21 May 2010 08:10 AM PDT

Says ECB credibility based on price stability. And that the ECB Bond purchases won’t fuel inflation. He comments that the ECB will not be influenced by political pressures as well.

fxdd-pic-0356

The EURUSD has shown a touch better bias in the NY session. London and Europe are looking to exit for the week with a week that saw new lows since 2006 but is up on the week. So a mixed week for the EURO. The pair does have potential for futher corrective gains - after all the last move lower did move 1500 pips or so and corrections are a way of life in currency trading, with a possible target being 1.2734. However, the price will need to stay above the 200 hour MA in order to keep the bullish bias in tact. That level comes in at the 1.2466 area currently.

fxdd-pic-0355
Posted by at No comments:

Friday, May 21, 2010

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Forex QUICK: USDJPY tries the upside

Posted: 21 May 2010 07:01 AM PDT

Mexico Retail Sales & Overnight Rate Data Stay Unchanged

Posted: 21 May 2010 07:01 AM PDT

Retail Sales(INEGI):   Survey: 2.0%    Actual: 2.3%    Prior: 2.3%  

Overnight Rate:    Survey: 4.50%    Actual: 4.50%    Prior: 4.50%

Forex Morning Report - May 21

Posted: 21 May 2010 06:45 AM PDT

Bank of Mexico expected to keep rates unchanged at 4.5%

Posted: 21 May 2010 06:30 AM PDT

The decision is due at 10:00 AM. This will be the 9th staight meeting.

mex

Courtesy of Bloomberg

Forex QUICK: USDCAD has resistance at 1.0718, but stronger data does not help the C$

Posted: 21 May 2010 06:26 AM PDT

Forex QUICK: USDCHF consolidates near the highs.

Posted: 21 May 2010 06:10 AM PDT

Forex QUICK: USDJPY corrects overnight. Slightly bearish in early NY trade.

Posted: 21 May 2010 05:34 AM PDT

Forex QUICK: EURUSD trades against its key technical levels and awaits direction

Posted: 21 May 2010 05:23 AM PDT

Webinar Rebroadcast of Thursday May 20th

Posted: 21 May 2010 05:15 AM PDT

fxdd_rebroadcast

Webinar Rebroadcast of Thursday May 20th >>> Click to watch

Canada CPI

Posted: 21 May 2010 04:02 AM PDT

  • Core CPI (m/m) - Survey: 0.2%   Actual: 0.3%   Prior: -0.2%
  • CPI (m/m) - Survey: 0.2%   Actual: 0.3%   Prior: 0.0%

Kohn on the wires…

Posted: 21 May 2010 03:05 AM PDT

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn has released these statements:

  • Need to be very sure that you have an exit strategy.
  • Very hard to calibrate asset purchases to know how much to buy.
  • Buying longer term or unusual assets has helped to lower rates.
  • Risking unanchoring inflation expectations would be far too costly.
  • The effects of higher levels of reserves are uncertain; high reserves have not had much impact on money or credit.
  • We will be able to raise rates when appropriate.
  • Liquidity facilities have been unwound without a loss to central banks so far.
  • Once policy rate is at or close to zero, expectations for future rates are even more important than unusual.
  • Stable anchored inflation expectations are even more critical at zero; lower bound that usual.
  • Using unconventional policies can drive up inflation expectations, but can also follow inflation down.
  • Very hard to calibrate asset purchases to know how much to buy.

Euro testing 200 hr MAVG

Posted: 21 May 2010 01:54 AM PDT

After reaching a session high of 1.2671, the highest level since May 13th, the EUR/USD pair has traded continually lower and is now testing the 200 hr moving average at 1.2472. As shown below, the last two hourly candlesticks tested the line but could not break through; a close below may be a bearish signal for the pair in which case the next downside target would be the 61.8% line on the move from the low of May 20 to today’s high, at 1.2439. The next topside target is currently the 38.2% line at 1.2528 and further is the 23.6% retracement at 1.2582.

5-21-hr

UK Public Sector Net Borrowing

Posted: 21 May 2010 01:33 AM PDT

  • Public Sector Net Borrowing - Survey: 11.1B   Actual: 10.0B   Prior: 23.5B
  • Prelim Bus Investment (q/q) - Survey: -0.5%   Actual: 6.0%   Prior: -4.3%
  • Prelim Mortgage Approvals - Survey: 54K   Actual: 47K   Prior: 49K
  • Prelim M4 Money Supply - Survey: 0.3%   Actual: 0.0%   Prior: 0.2%

German IFO Business Climate

Posted: 21 May 2010 01:04 AM PDT

The euro traded lower, but had a quick recovery after German business climate came in slightly lower at 101.5 versus a forecast of 101.9 and prior reading of 101.6. Additionally, the Eurozone released the following better than expected data:

  • Current Account - Survey: -2.7B   Actual: 1.7B   Prior: -3.9B
  • Flash Man PMI - Survey: 57.6   Actual: 55.9   Prior: 57.6
  • Flash Services PMI - Survey: 55.5   Actual: 56.0   Prior: 55.6

German Flash PMI

Posted: 21 May 2010 12:31 AM PDT

The EUR traded slightly lower after Germany’s Flash PMI for April came in slighly worse than expected

  • Flash Manufacturing PMI - Survey: 61.6   Actual: 58.3   Prior: 61.5
  • Flash Services PMI - Survey: 55.6   Actual: 53.7   Prior: 55.2
Posted by at No comments:

Thursday, May 20, 2010

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

SNB Jordan on the newswires

Posted: 20 May 2010 07:06 AM PDT

The SNB Jordan is on the newswires saying that Switzerland has a big interest in EURO Aid Plan success and that EURO crisis risk can not be underestimated.  He also warns that he won’t allow deflation risk to increase and that the SNB will defend against excessive Franc gain

fxdd-pic-0344

The CHF has been a safe haven currency in the face of US problems first and now EURO problems. As a result, its currency has been strong but with a strong currency and an economy which is dependent on counterparties like US and EURO region, as those economies go, so does the Swiss economy.  When the currency becomes a safe haven it can cause deflationary pressures as a higher currency makes imports cheaper but hurts exports. Meanwhile, domestic spending is slow. The double hit from slow domestic growth and slow export growth increases deflation risk.  They don’t want deflation. Hence they intervene like they did yesterday and are trying to do through these comments.

Philadelphia Fed Stays the Same as Leading Indicators comes in Worse

Posted: 20 May 2010 07:01 AM PDT

Leading Indicators:    Survey: 0.2%     Actual:  -.1%    Prior:  1.4%    Revised:  1.3%

Philadelphia Fed:     Survey: 21.3      Actual: 21.4      Prior:  20.2

 FED PRICES-RECEIVED 3.5 VS 1.0 last month
 FED EMPLOYMENT INDEX 3.2 VS 7.3 last month
 FED PRICES-PAID INDEX 35.5 VS 42.7 last month
 FED NEW ORDERS INDEX 6.1 VS 13.9 last month
 FED FACTORY INDEX 21.4 VS 20.2 last month

The pieces of the report are a little less encouraging with New Orders index down and the Employment index also lower from the prior month

Philadelphia Fed and Leading Indicators Data due at 10AM

Posted: 20 May 2010 06:33 AM PDT

fxdd_region_0026fxdd_region_0025

Forex Morning Report - May 20th

Posted: 20 May 2010 06:30 AM PDT

Forex Morning Report now available from FXDD

ECB’s Trichet on the Newswires

Posted: 20 May 2010 06:13 AM PDT

  • recent events confirmed ECB policy approach
  • ECB takes decisions independently of governments
  • ECB is fiercely independent
  • bond purchases resolve malfunctioning of some markets
  • ECB not engaged in “any form of quantitative easing”
  • monetary policy stance “appropriate”
  • price stability goal more important in crisis
  • must ensure more resilience of financial system
  • bond purchases ensure policy transmission

Forex QUICK:USDJPY moves lower on weaker Intial Claims/Break of trendline

Posted: 20 May 2010 05:42 AM PDT

Jobless Claims Data Worse than Expected

Posted: 20 May 2010 05:30 AM PDT

Initial Jobless Claims:    Survey: 440K      Actual: 471K    Prior:  444K    Revised:  446K

Continuing Claims:    Survey: 4605K      Actual: 4625K    Prior:  4627K    Revised:  4665K

Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims Data this Morning

Posted: 20 May 2010 05:08 AM PDT

fxdd_region_0024

Forex QUICK: EURUSD up and down as consolidation consolidation continues

Posted: 20 May 2010 04:59 AM PDT

The NY Opening Forex Commentary for May 20th is available for viewing

Posted: 20 May 2010 04:43 AM PDT

Bank of England’s Posen speaks on Euro

Posted: 20 May 2010 02:08 AM PDT

BOE’s Posen comments in Spiegal interview are as follows;

* Whole world put pressure on EU-16 to stop Greek crisis

* EU could take further measures, could save more

* ECB bond purchases are a de facto fiscal transfer

* Euro has lost opportunity to be a real global currency

Eur/Usd has come off about 20 points since comments, trading at 1.2390.

Swiss ZEW Economic Expectations

Posted: 20 May 2010 02:03 AM PDT

Swiss ZEW Economic Expectations came in at 40.5, weaker than the prior rerading of 53.4. There were no estimates for this figure.

Usd/Chf  and Eur/Chf relatively unaffected by release, trading at 1.1490 and 1.4250 respectively.

Merkel on the wires…

Posted: 20 May 2010 01:46 AM PDT

  • Every financial product and centre must be regulated in the future.
  • Euro zone is sticking together and ready to take necessary political action.
  • Each Euro zone country must make a contribution to the function of the euro.
  • We must tackle Euro zone problems at their roots; need to toughen stability pact.
  • Concerned about the extent of international coordination of exit strategies.
  • Banks must not be allowed to blackmail states.
  • Hopes an international bank levy can be agreed.
  • will push for bank levy at G20 summit.
  • There should be a European rating agency.

UK Retail Sales

Posted: 20 May 2010 01:34 AM PDT

The GBP higher after Aprils m/m retail sales came in at 0.3%; in line with the forecast was 0.3% and slightly worse than last months reading of 0.4%.

Strength was shown in clothing and department stores, which offset the weakness in hardware and electrical sales.

Currently, sterling is trading off session highs.

Gold retraces hourly move

Posted: 19 May 2010 11:54 PM PDT

Following up on yesterday’s post; yesterday gold was trading in the area of the 61.8% retracement level (1208.86) on the move from the low on May 7th to the high on May 14th. We said that the downside target was around 1200.34, but over the last 24 hours gold has finished retracing the entire move and has made a session low of 1181.98. If the pair can continue this bearish move, the next possible target is 1172.26, where support was found on the 4th and 5th of May.

5-20-hr
Posted by at No comments:
Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)