Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• The EURUSD remains within the boundary after Bernanke speech
• Fed Chairman Bernanke on the Wires
• FOMC Bernanke speech
• Michigan Confidence Drops Slightly
• Michigan Confidence 9:55AM
• Forex Morning Report- August 27
• Fed’s Bullard on CNBC
• USDJPY moves higher on better GDP, but waiting for Bernanke
• GDP Review. Better consumption was the difference
• GDP, Personal Consumption & PCE all have Stronger Data
• US GDP and Core PCE Data at 8:30AM
• GDP, then Bernanke, Bernanke and Bernanke
• Kan; ready to take bold action on currencies
• UK Revised Quarterly GDP & Premliminary Business Investment
• German Import Prices

The EURUSD remains within the boundary after Bernanke speech Posted: 27 Aug 2010 07:19 AM PDT

Fed Chairman Bernanke on the Wires Posted: 27 Aug 2010 07:04 AM PDT Bernanke Says: Fed will do ‘all it can’ to ensure US recovery inflation fallen to level below FOMC preference FOMC prepared to provide more accommodation if needed fed has tools to support growth, oppose disinflation more long-term securities buying would be effective economic recovery ‘remains far from complete’ growth ‘has been to slow’ unemployment too high FOMC not agreed on ‘criteria or triggers’ for action preconditions for growth pickup in 2011 are in place households more cautions about outlook than nexpected near term spending likly to grow slowly modest pace of growth for second half of 2010

FOMC Bernanke speech Posted: 27 Aug 2010 07:02 AM PDT Below is the link for the complete text of the speech as posted on the Federal Reserve website. http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20100827a.htm Highlights Inflation should remain near current levels Prepared to provide more accomodation if needed Tools to support growth, oppose disinflation Economic recovery far from complete but growth too slow and unemployment too high  Modest growth in second half Consumer spending to grow slowly

Michigan Confidence Drops Slightly Posted: 27 Aug 2010 06:55 AM PDT University of Michigan Confidence:       Survey:  69.6            Actual:  68.9               Prior: 69.6   Market stays calm on the news, Fed’s Bernanke to speak at 10AM.

Michigan Confidence 9:55AM Posted: 27 Aug 2010 06:40 AM PDT

Forex Morning Report- August 27 Posted: 27 Aug 2010 06:28 AM PDT Forex Morning Report- August 27

Fed’s Bullard on CNBC Posted: 27 Aug 2010 05:59 AM PDT US double dip not likely Recovery has gone reasonably well but slowed in the spring Monetary policy is extremely accomodative FOMC possibly contemplating more QE Growth slower but stil positive in the 2nd half of the year Housing is so low it’ll just be flat Fed ready to act if situation worsens I can’t help to think his comments dovetail the Chairmans.  It is what it is folks. The  economy has weak housing and employment. It is in a slow patch.  Policy is extremely accomodative as rates have not been this low before.  Bernanke will likely stress that the Fed look to use more QE if warranted. What else can they do?

USDJPY moves higher on better GDP, but waiting for Bernanke Posted: 27 Aug 2010 05:50 AM PDT

GDP Review. Better consumption was the difference Posted: 27 Aug 2010 05:33 AM PDT The Personal Consumption was the difference. Consumption grew by 2.0% vs 1.6% expected. Instead of contributing 1.15% of the GDP it contributed 1.38%. Other pieces were as expected. Inventories declined. Imports rose making the net trade more of a drain. Government was little changed.

GDP, Personal Consumption & PCE all have Stronger Data Posted: 27 Aug 2010 05:32 AM PDT GDP QoQ (Annualized):      Survey: 1.4%          Actual: 1.6%            Prior:  2.4%          Personal Consumption:     Survey: 2.4%          Actual: 2.0%           Prior:  3.0%           GDP Price Index:     Survey:  1.8%         Actual:  1.9%       Prior:  1.8%        Core PCE (QoQ):    Survey:  1.1%         Actual: 1.1%        Prior: 1.1%

US GDP and Core PCE Data at 8:30AM Posted: 27 Aug 2010 05:01 AM PDT

GDP, then Bernanke, Bernanke and Bernanke Posted: 27 Aug 2010 04:49 AM PDT Expect a sugar rush like move as Bernanke comments are reported at 10 AM. Last year, the comments had around a 100 pip range as the market moved up and down and all around. This year I would expect something similar. The comments are anyone’s guess. Popular thought is if new or rather a strong hint of QE (which is doubtful as that is why there is a FOMC - they decide that), the dollar gets weaker. If he doesn’t hint, expect up and down volatility. The good news is that the market has some key levels that straddle the current price so there are some boundaries to lean against or use as guides for bullish or bearish bias. I would think that the smart money will be using and watching the key levels for their clues today. Click to see the key levels.

Kan; ready to take bold action on currencies Posted: 27 Aug 2010 01:36 AM PDT Japan PM Kan states he is ready to take bold action on currencies. He will meet with Governor Shirakawa upon return from U.S.

UK Revised Quarterly GDP & Premliminary Business Investment Posted: 27 Aug 2010 01:33 AM PDT UK GDP q/q was revised up to 1.2% from 1.1%. Premliminary Business Investment q/q came in at -1.6%, weaker than the 2.3% expected. Gbp/Usd was bought up about 40 points prior to release of figures to trade at 1.5535. The pair currently is back down to 1.5505.

German Import Prices Posted: 26 Aug 2010 11:05 PM PDT German Import Prices m/m -0.2%, weaker than the 0.1% expected. Not much market reaction to figure as Eur/Usd trades at 1.2725.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• USDJPY:84.80 proves to be a problem level for bulls
• USDCAD: 1.0551 key level. It is time to make a move.
• Forex Morning Report August 26th
• Stronger data. Stronger dollar? The better Initial Claims leads to EURUSD selling
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-August.26.2010
• US Jobless Cliams Lower with Continuing Claims also Following the Trend
• Initial Claims come in better than expectations
• Fed’s Hoenig comments
• Rebroadcast of the FXStreet Webinar
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary: Be on alert, key levels to watch.
• UK CBI Realized Sales
• Eurozone M3 Money Supply
• Eur/Usd runs stops, makes high at 1.2743
• Swiss Employment Level
• GfK German Consumer Climate

USDJPY:84.80 proves to be a problem level for bulls Posted: 26 Aug 2010 07:04 AM PDT The 84.80 level was the low in November 2009 and the market did not reach that level again until this month when the price moved to 84.71. ON Friday the price moved to the new 15 year lows at the 83.57 level and has rebounded modestly over the last few days. With a narrow trading range today, look for a range extension. With rejection above against the 84.80, a move low may be the way. Risk is a move above 84.64 currently.

USDCAD: 1.0551 key level. It is time to make a move. Posted: 26 Aug 2010 06:43 AM PDT

Forex Morning Report August 26th Posted: 26 Aug 2010 06:30 AM PDT Forex Morning Report Also FXDD webinar today at 4pm 21:00 gmt with Greg and Shawn

Stronger data. Stronger dollar? The better Initial Claims leads to EURUSD selling Posted: 26 Aug 2010 05:44 AM PDT

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-August.26.2010 Posted: 26 Aug 2010 05:33 AM PDT Good Morning: Both the Yen and USD lost some ground overnight as Asian and European equity markets posted positive results. With stocks trading in the green-the demand for safe haven currencies dropped. The Fed’s annual symposium in Jackson Hole, WY is scheduled to begin today, and run through the weekend. Central bankers from around the world to meet and discuss the current worldwide economic status.  Central Bankers are expected to reiterate their intentions to keep stimulus measures in place to sustain the global recovery. Fed Chairman Bernanke speaks on Friday-and market participants are awaiting any word from him regarding additional QE steps to stimulate the faltering US economy. World equity markets rose, and US futures are flat at this time. Oil:$73.16                                         Gold:$1244.20 TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 8:30a.m. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS 21-Aug 490K 500K 8:30a.m. CONTINUING CLAIMS 14-Aug 4495K 4478K 10:00a.m. MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES 2Q 10.06% 10:00a.m. MBA MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES 2Q 4.63% HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

US Jobless Cliams Lower with Continuing Claims also Following the Trend Posted: 26 Aug 2010 05:32 AM PDT Jobless Claims:             Survey: 490K    Actual: 473K    Prior: 500K    Revised: 504K    Continuing Claims:      Survey: 4495K    Actual: 4456K    Prior: 4478K    Revised: 4518K

Initial Claims come in better than expectations Posted: 26 Aug 2010 05:31 AM PDT …at 473K. The USDJPY moves higher looks to test the key 84.80 level. A break above this level would be bullish for the pair. Meanwhile the EURUSD went higher to test the 200 bar MA and is now down testing the 100 bar MA (see chart below).  Look for a break to determine direction.

Fed’s Hoenig comments Posted: 26 Aug 2010 05:23 AM PDT Have modest recovery, but… Shouldn’t expect much more He also commented that the Fed should chart a little longer term path for the US economy Hoenig is a dissenting member on the board of the Fed who has voted for removal of the phrase “keeping rates low for an extended period of time” and advocates more of an exit strategy with higher rates.

Rebroadcast of the FXStreet Webinar Posted: 26 Aug 2010 05:08 AM PDT

The NY Opening Forex Commentary: Be on alert, key levels to watch. Posted: 26 Aug 2010 04:41 AM PDT

UK CBI Realized Sales Posted: 26 Aug 2010 03:01 AM PDT CBI Realized Sales came in at 35, stronger than the 23 expected and prior reading of 33. Not much of a market reaction as Gbp/Usd gained 10 points to 1.5545.

Eurozone M3 Money Supply Posted: 26 Aug 2010 01:34 AM PDT Eurozone M3 Money Supply came in at 0.2%, weaker than the 0.4% expected. Eur/Usd has come off some 30 points since release 30 minutes ago, currently trading at 1.2700.

Eur/Usd runs stops, makes high at 1.2743 Posted: 26 Aug 2010 12:25 AM PDT Eur/Usd ran some stops between 1.2720-35 level and came to an abrubt halt at the 50% fibo (hi 1.2910, lo 1.2585) at 1.2743. This level may serve as resistance with the 200 hour M/A just above at 1.2756.

Swiss Employment Level Posted: 26 Aug 2010 12:18 AM PDT Swiss Employment Level came in at 3,968,000, weaker than the 3,975,000 estimated. Usd/Chf  currently trades at 1.0305 with little change. Eur/Chf was bought up to highs just prior to release of figure and is of 10 points to 1.3118.

GfK German Consumer Climate Posted: 25 Aug 2010 11:02 PM PDT GfK German Consumer Climate came in at 4.1, inline with expectations and stronger than the 3.9 prior reading. Eur/Usd trading at session highs, 1.2719.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• The EURUSD rallies but not enough. Comes back down.
• SNB Hildebrand comments on newswires
• New Home Sales Fall, Along with House Price Index
• US New Home Sales Data due at 10AM
• The NY Morning Commentary: Weak data, has the dollar under some pressure
• USDJPY falls but not enough on weaker data. 84.07-14 eyed
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-August.25.2010
• Durable Goods weak…
• Very Weak Durable Goods Data
• Watch the 1.2605 level for the EURUSD this morning
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary: Key events, Key technical levels
• US Durable Goods Data Coming at 8:30AM
• German IFO Business Climate
• Usd/Jpy; good hourly resistance
• 8-25 Economic Calendar

The EURUSD rallies but not enough. Comes back down. Posted: 25 Aug 2010 07:28 AM PDT

SNB Hildebrand comments on newswires Posted: 25 Aug 2010 07:16 AM PDT Inflation remains a risk longer term Economic uncertainties remain high Not in a normal situation SNB does not have an exchange rate target Does not currently have deflation or inflation SNB would respond to deflationary risk Swiss growth may be weaker in the 2nd half of the year

New Home Sales Fall, Along with House Price Index Posted: 25 Aug 2010 07:03 AM PDT New Home Sales:        Survey: 330K           Actual: 275K           Prior: 330K         Revised: 315K New Home Sales(MoM):     Survey: 0.0%         Actual: -12.4%           Prior: 23.6%         Revised: 12.1% House Price Index (MoM):                         Survey: 0.1%    Actual:  -.3%     Prior:  0.5%    House Price Purachase Index (QoQ):    Survey: -0.4%         Actual: .9%         Prior: -1.9%       Month supply 9.1 this month vs 8.0 last month. Median Sale Price fell from $217,000 to $204,000 and the Mean Price also fell sharply to $235,300 from $248,300. These indicate not only is supply going up but prices are depressed as well.

US New Home Sales Data due at 10AM Posted: 25 Aug 2010 06:27 AM PDT

The NY Morning Commentary: Weak data, has the dollar under some pressure Posted: 25 Aug 2010 06:25 AM PDT

USDJPY falls but not enough on weaker data. 84.07-14 eyed Posted: 25 Aug 2010 06:04 AM PDT

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-August.25.2010 Posted: 25 Aug 2010 05:50 AM PDT Good Morning: Alert!: Durable Goods rises .3%-the data was expected to rise 3%. The data points to continued speculation that the economy is slowing. The JPY gave back some gains overnight as speculation mounts that the Japanese government will need to intervene to slow down the gains in the Yen. Any slight gains that the Euro had from yesterday were erased as the spread between Irish and German bonds hit the highest levels since May, 2010.  News from Germany that the IFO survey showed strength in the largest economy in Europe was good news for the EZ in general.  While data showed that the pace of growth may of slowed, the data also suggests that the region is in good standing to reach the GDP growth that they expect. World equity markets dropped again-and US Futures are also pointing to a lower opening this morning. Gold rose-and Oil is trading under $72/bar. Oil:$71.53                                     Gold:$1235.90   TIME FOR  EST PRIOR    REVISED 7:00A.M. MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS 20-Aug 13.00% 8:30A.M. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS JULY 3.00% -1.00% -1.20% 8:30A.M. DURABLES EX-TRANSPORTATION JULY 0.50% -0.60% -0.90% 8:30A.M. CAP GOODS ORDERS NONDEF EX AIR JULY 0.20% 8:30A.M. CAP GOODS SHIP NONDEF EX AIR JULY 0.50% 10:00A.M. NEW HOME SALES  JULY 330K 330K 10:00A.M. NEW HOME SALES MoM JULY 0.00% 23.60% 10:00A.M. HOUSE PRICE PURCHASE INDEX QoQ 2Q -0.40% -1.90% 10:00A.M. HOUSE PRICE INDEX MoM    JUNE 0.10% 0.50%   HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Durable Goods weak… Posted: 25 Aug 2010 05:34 AM PDT                                                 Durable Goods Orders  0.3%  vs -0.1%  Ex-transportation -3.8% vs   0.2%  Ex-defense   0.3% vs  0.2% Capital goods  -2.7% vs  0.2%  Non-defense -2.8%  vs 1.2%   ex-aircraft  -8.0% vs  3.6%   Defense   -2.2% vs -5.6% Shipments of NonDefense Capital Goods orders ex aircraft fell -1.5% after a 1.0% gain in June.  This goes into the GDP data for the 3rd quarter. Not a good start to the quarter.

Very Weak Durable Goods Data Posted: 25 Aug 2010 05:31 AM PDT Durable Goods Orders:   Survey: 3.0%      Actual: .3%     Prior:  -1.0%   Revised: -.1% Durables Ex Transportation:   Survey:  0.5%      Actual: -3.8%      Prior:  -0.6%   Revised: .2%

Watch the 1.2605 level for the EURUSD this morning Posted: 25 Aug 2010 05:26 AM PDT The 1.2605 level is the 50% of the move up from June low to the high. Yesterday we moved below the level on the way to the low at the 1.2586 level.  A move below these levels this morning will next target the 1.2549 area. In early July when the price was last at this level, the market used this level as support and resistance (see chart below) If the 1.2605 level holds support, the upside progressive targets would look to get through the 1.2645, then 1.2662 and 1.2682.  The EURUSD fell below the 100 day MA last Friday. Staying below this moving average line keeps the bearish long term bias in tact for the pair.  That level comes in at the 1.2744 level today. The high today reached 1.2725.  Was that the test?  Stay below the resistance levels outlined above and the downside remains in charge in the short term as well.

The NY Opening Forex Commentary: Key events, Key technical levels Posted: 25 Aug 2010 05:08 AM PDT

US Durable Goods Data Coming at 8:30AM Posted: 25 Aug 2010 05:08 AM PDT

German IFO Business Climate Posted: 25 Aug 2010 01:03 AM PDT German IFO Business Climate came in at 106.7, stronger than the 105.7 expected. Current Assessment came in at 108.2, stronger than the 107.5 expected. Expectations came in at 105.2, stronger than the 104.3 expected. Strong numbers for the Euro as Eur/Usd jumped up to 1.2720 on newss.

Usd/Jpy; good hourly resistance Posted: 24 Aug 2010 09:26 PM PDT Usd/Jpy is trading near the 38.2% fibo retracement of move down from 85.80 to 83.56. The pair is having a hard time breaking above this resistance line and seems to be under some pressure. Light support around 84.10-15 level. Tough to have confidence in any support line, so i look for 83.56 to be target for short covering. If the pair braks above the 50% fibo at 84.68 should lend more resistance.

8-25 Economic Calendar Posted: 24 Aug 2010 08:50 PM PDT

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• US Existing Home Sales Horrific Data
• The NY Morning Commentary: Flight to quality continues
• US Existing Home Sales Data 10AM
• USDCAD continues move higher on lower oil and Retail Sales
• Canada Retail Data Worse than Expected
• EURUSD and USDJPY fall through the target support levels. EURJPY scoots lower
• NY Morning Commentary: Lots of key technical levels to watch as market trends overnight
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-August.24.2010
• Canada Retail Sales Data at 8:30AM
• S&P’s Wyss comments on U.S.
• Eurozone Industrial Orders
• British Bankers Association Mortgagae Approvals
• Noda has no comment on intervention
• Noda to hold press conference
• Dollar falls to 84.57 Yen

US Existing Home Sales Horrific Data Posted: 24 Aug 2010 07:03 AM PDT Existing Home Sales:        Survey: 4.65M           Actual: 3.83M           Prior: 5.37M         Revised: 5.26M Existing Home Sales(MoM):     Survey: -13.4%           Actual: -27.2%           Prior: -5.1%         Revised: -7.1% Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index:      Survey: 8     Actual: 11      Prior: 16    12.5 month supply on the market up sharply from the 8.9 month supply of last month.

The NY Morning Commentary: Flight to quality continues Posted: 24 Aug 2010 06:13 AM PDT

US Existing Home Sales Data 10AM Posted: 24 Aug 2010 05:56 AM PDT

USDCAD continues move higher on lower oil and Retail Sales Posted: 24 Aug 2010 05:41 AM PDT

Canada Retail Data Worse than Expected Posted: 24 Aug 2010 05:31 AM PDT Retail Sales:             Survey: 0.4%                Actual: .1                 Prior:  -0.2%                Revised: -.4 Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM):             Survey: 0.1%                Actual:  -.5                Prior:  -0.1%                Revised:  -.3

EURUSD and USDJPY fall through the target support levels. EURJPY scoots lower Posted: 24 Aug 2010 05:30 AM PDT

NY Morning Commentary: Lots of key technical levels to watch as market trends overnight Posted: 24 Aug 2010 05:12 AM PDT

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-August.24.2010 Posted: 24 Aug 2010 04:44 AM PDT Good Morning: The Yen rose to a 15 year high against the USD, as continued concerns that the global recovery is faltering has investors running to the safe refuge of the JPY.  The USD also rose.  Data out of Europe suggested that the German economy is showing strength.  Today we have data in the US regarding the ailing US housing market.  The expectations are for more disappointing news regarding Existing Home Sales. World equity markets are mostly lower, and US Futures are also pointing to a lower opening this morning. Oil:$72.45                                    Gold:$1219.90 TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 10:00A.M. RICHMOND FED MANUFACT. INDEX AUG. 16.O 10:00A.M. EXISTING HOME SALES YoY JULY 4.73M 5.37M 10:00A.M. EXISTING HOME SALES MoM JULY -11.70% -5.10% HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Canada Retail Sales Data at 8:30AM Posted: 24 Aug 2010 04:37 AM PDT

S&P’s Wyss comments on U.S. Posted: 24 Aug 2010 03:03 AM PDT The U.S. has a realistic possibility of falling into a Japanese style economic slump, says David Wyss, chief economist at Standard and Poor’s. “I think there is a realistic possibility in the U.S. that iy’s slipping into this pattern like Japan has, 10 to 20 years of stagnation,” Wyss said at a seminar in Tokyo. Eur/Usd has felt the affects of these comments as the pair has just made a new low of 1.2603.

Eurozone Industrial Orders Posted: 24 Aug 2010 02:02 AM PDT Eurozone Industrial Orders m/m came in at 2.5%, stronger than the 1.6% expected and weaker than  prior reading of 3.8%. Eur/Usd currently trades at 1.2632.

British Bankers Association Mortgagae Approvals Posted: 24 Aug 2010 01:37 AM PDT BBA Mortgage Approvals came in at 33,698, a touch less than the 34,000 expected and prior reading of 34,575. Gbp/Usd unaffected upon release, trading at 1.5390.

Noda has no comment on intervention Posted: 24 Aug 2010 01:02 AM PDT Noda has no comment on currency intervention sending Usd/Jpy to fresh low of 84.43, Eur/Jpy to 106.57.

Noda to hold press conference Posted: 24 Aug 2010 12:42 AM PDT Noda to hold press conference at 5:00 Japan time. Will the BoJ intervene is the question.

Dollar falls to 84.57 Yen Posted: 24 Aug 2010 12:26 AM PDT Usd/Jpy falls to 84.57, its lowest level in 15 years.

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