Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.24.2010
• Christmas Holiday Best Wishes
• Next FXDD Live Education Dec 28th 2010
• FXDD Live education rebroadcast Dec 23 2010
• USDCHF rises sharply today but find sellers against trend line resistance
• USDJPY’s breaking of the 100 day MA leads to fall
• GBPUSD: Watching the 200 day MA
• EURUSD remains quietly bearish

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.24.2010 Posted: 24 Dec 2010 06:21 AM PST Good Morning: I want to wish everyone a  very Merry Christmas. With the world closed or about to close for the Christmas holiday-the markets are very thin-and FXDD  trading will close at 1 PM (NY Time) today.  Our phones will be open till 2 PM. Enjoy your holiday-and I will see you on the posts next week. Bob

Christmas Holiday Best Wishes Posted: 23 Dec 2010 02:19 PM PST On behalf of Greg and myself, we would like to wish you a safe and happy holiday. I will be back on Jan 4th. Greg will continue to post commentary next week. FXDD Closes tomorrow at 1pm and reopens Sunday afternoon. Best wishes, Shawn Powell

Next FXDD Live Education Dec 28th 2010 Posted: 23 Dec 2010 02:17 PM PST Next FXDD Live Education Dec 28th 2010 >>Click to Register

FXDD Live education rebroadcast Dec 23 2010 Posted: 23 Dec 2010 02:14 PM PST FXDD Live education rebroadcast Dec 23 2010 - Click to watch This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

USDCHF rises sharply today but find sellers against trend line resistance Posted: 23 Dec 2010 09:02 AM PST The USDCHF lost some of the safe haven action today and the pair has moved sharply higher.  The sharp move higher took the price above the 100 and 200 hour MA and tested a trend line resistance before finding profit takers who willingly sold the market back lower. In the last couple hours the price has moved back down to test the 100 hour MA at the 0.9600 area but has been able to hold support.  As a result, the bias remains bullish/corrective above this level.  A move below the 0.9600 level will be needed to erase the short term bullish bias.

USDJPY’s breaking of the 100 day MA leads to fall Posted: 23 Dec 2010 08:22 AM PST The breaking of the 100 day MA today at 83.45, has led to some momentum selling in the USDJPY but the pair still goes with some kicking and screaming. The kicking and screaming came in the form of a sharp correction in the early NY session that saw the price move back higher to test the key 83.45 level.  Failure to push back through the level has led to a reestablishment of the bearish bias and the price is back down testing the 83.00 level.  The low for the day comes in at 82.85 and remains the next target to breach.

GBPUSD: Watching the 200 day MA Posted: 23 Dec 2010 08:12 AM PST Yesterday, the price moved below and closed just below the 200 day MA. Today, the price is trading around the key technical level as the combination of the holiday week and the importance of the level keeps traders content with pausing at the key level.  Nevertheless, the level remains a key borderline level for bullish or bearish bias and a close below the level should keep the bias firmly to the downside.  Conversely a close above the key 1.5391 level should cause some profit taking from the shorts as the holiday week works toward the close.

EURUSD remains quietly bearish Posted: 23 Dec 2010 07:34 AM PST The EURUSD remains in a shallow downward channel this week. The price tested the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below) and trendline earlier today - providing a low risk trading opportunity (see hourly chart below). The pair has resumed the move lower and looks to target the 1.3040 level where the bottom of the channel currently comes in. Taking a look at the daily chart below, the price has moved back below the key 200 day MA (green line in the chart below) currently at the 1.3091 area and also has moved below the 50% retracement of the move up from the 2010 low at 1.1876 to the high reached in November at 1.4281. That level comes in at 1.30785. Staying below this level today should keep the pressure on the pair and would target in the medium term a testing of the 1.2968 low for November and possibly the 61.8% retracement at the 1.2795 level. For today, a move back above the 1.30785 level (50%) should solicit some holiday type profit taking by the day traders, with a move above the 200 day moving average, taking all the wind out of the bears sails.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• US New Home Sales Down, Michigan Confidence Stays According to Survey
• Canada GDP Slightly Lower
• Jobless Claims Stay Put, Durable Goods Orders Weaker as Personal Spending Up a Touch
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.23.2010
• US Durable Goods, Personal Income & Spending, PCE & Jobless Claims All Due at 8:30AM
• UK Mortgage Approvals and Index of Services
• Euro Still Lower
• Spain’s Producer Prices Better
• 12-23 Economic Calendar
• Live training with FXDD’s Shawn Powell Thursday
• Greg Michalowski Live on FXstreet Training

US New Home Sales Down, Michigan Confidence Stays According to Survey Posted: 23 Dec 2010 07:10 AM PST US New Home Sales:  Survey:  300K   Actual:  290K   Prior:  283K   Revised: 275 US New Home Sales MoM:   Survey:  6.0%   Actual:  5.5%   Prior:  -8.1%   Revised: -10.7% Nov vs. Oct Median Price:  $213,000 vs. $197,200 Average Price:  $268,700 vs. $248,700 Total Number:  21,000 vs. 22,000 Under $150K:  4,000 vs. 5,000 150K-199K: 6,000 vs. 6,000 200K-299K: 6,000 vs 6,000 300K-399K: 3,000 vs 3,000 400K-499K: 3,000 vs 3,000 500K-749K:  1,000 vs 1,000 750K and Over:  0 vs  0

Canada GDP Slightly Lower Posted: 23 Dec 2010 05:46 AM PST

Jobless Claims Stay Put, Durable Goods Orders Weaker as Personal Spending Up a Touch Posted: 23 Dec 2010 05:36 AM PST Durable Goods Orders:   Survey: -0.5%      Actual: -1.3%   Prior:  -3.3%   Revised: -3.1% Durables Ex Transportation:   Survey:  1.8%      Actual: 2.4%     Prior:  -2.7%   Revised:  -1.9% Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air:   Survey:  3.1%     Actual:  2.6%    Prior:  -4.5%     Revised: -3.6% Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air:    Actual:  1.0%    Prior:  -1.5%     Revised:  -1.2% Personal Income:           Survey: 0.2%         Actual:  0.3%        Prior: 0.5%    Revised: 0.4%      Personal Spending:        Survey: 0.5%         Actual: 0.4%         Prior: 0.4%       Revised: 0.7% PCE Deflator:    Survey: 1.1%         Actual:  1.0%         Prior: 1.3%         PCE Core(MoM):     Survey: 0.1%         Actual:  0.1%         Prior: 0.0%       PCE Core(YoY):    Survey:  0.9%         Actual:  0.8%         Prior:  0.9%       Jobless Claims:  Survey:  420K    Actual: 420K   Prior: 420K    Revised:  423K    Continuing Claims:  Survey: 4100K    Actual:  4064K    Prior: 4135  Revised: 4167K

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.23.2010 Posted: 23 Dec 2010 05:16 AM PST Good Morning: The dollar lost some steam as speculation that data out of the US this morning  (see below) will show that the economic recovery in the US is gaining traction-thus having investors seek higher-yielding assets versus the safe haven of the greenback. With the S&P 500 Index hitting levels that have not been seen since the collapse of Lehman Brothers, investors are being open to adding more risk to their portfolios. On another note-Fitch ratings cut Hungary’s credit rating to BBB- from BBB. World equity markets were mixed-and US Futures are flat at this time. Oil:$ 90.45                                                               Gold:$1380.60 TIME FOR EST. PRIOR REVISED 8:30A.M. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS  NOV. -0.50% -3.30% -3.40% 8:30A.M. DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION NOV. 1.80% -2.70% -2.70% 8:30A.M. CAP GOODS ORDERS NONDEF EX AIR     NOV. 3.00% -4.50% 8:30A.M. CAP GOODS SHIP NONDEF EX AIR  NOV. -1.50% 8:30A.M. PERSONAL INCOME NOV. 0.20% 0.50% 8;30A.M. PERSONAL SPENDING  NOV. 0.50% 0.40% 8:30A.M. PCE DEFLATOR YoY NOV. 1.10% 1.30% 8:30A.M. PCE CORE MoM NOV. 0.10% 0.00% 8:30A.M. PCE CORE YoY NOV. 0.90% 0.90% 8:30A.M. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS 18-Dec 420K     420K 8:30A.M. CONTINUING CLAIMS 11-Dec  4100K     4135K 9:55A.M. U. OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE  DEC.F  74.5O      74.2O 10:00A.M. NEW HOME SALES  NOV.        300K     283K 10:00A.M. NEW HOME SALES MoM NOV. 6.00% -8.10%   Today is FESTIVUS-”Festivus for the rest of us” HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

US Durable Goods, Personal Income & Spending, PCE & Jobless Claims All Due at 8:30AM Posted: 23 Dec 2010 04:30 AM PST

UK Mortgage Approvals and Index of Services Posted: 23 Dec 2010 01:37 AM PST The market had a limited reaction to worse than expected mortgage approvals which came in at 30K versus the 31.3K forecast and 30.7K prior reading. Additionally, index of services was slightly better at 0.6%.

Euro Still Lower Posted: 23 Dec 2010 12:13 AM PST Shown below you can see that the EUR/USD found hourly resistance at the 23.6% retracement level on the move from December 17th highs to December 21st lows. The previous candlestick made a session high of 1.3151 reaching the 100 hour moving average. If this selling continues, the next downside target for the pair is the 0.0% line at 1.3073.

Spain’s Producer Prices Better Posted: 23 Dec 2010 12:07 AM PST Spain’s producer prices rose 4.4% in November from a year ago. Following the release the EUR/USD made a new session low of 1.3115 as U.K bond market opens lower.

12-23 Economic Calendar Posted: 22 Dec 2010 08:50 PM PST

Live training with FXDD’s Shawn Powell Thursday Posted: 22 Dec 2010 07:54 AM PST Live training with FXDD’s Shawn Powell Thursday 4pm est 1pm pst 21:00 gmt - You’ll be treated to a special class on opening live accounts and then on some key trading strategies that we seldom talk about. A special holiday show if you will for our long time listeners- Register Here

Greg Michalowski Live on FXstreet Training Posted: 22 Dec 2010 07:38 AM PST Greg Michalowski Live on FXstreet Training >> Click here to watch

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• US House Price Index Rises, Home Sales Fall Lower
• Home Sales & House Price Index Data due at 10AM
• US GDP, Personal Consumption & PCE All Lower Than Expected
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.22.2010
• 8:30AM US Data Includes: GDP, Personal Consumption & PCE
• UK Current Account Worse Than Expected
• German Import Prices m/m
• 12-22 Economic Calendar
• Live education rebroadcast Dec 21 2010 Webinar
• GBPUSD moves below the floor bottom at 1.5452
• EURUSD pushes below 200 day MA. 50% retracement next target
• Forex Midday Report- Dec 21
• EURUSD has broken the floor at the 1.3130 level

US House Price Index Rises, Home Sales Fall Lower Posted: 22 Dec 2010 07:15 AM PST Existing Home Sales:     Survey: 4.75m        Actual: 4.68m       Prior: 4.43m   Existing Home Sales MoM:      Survey: 7.1%        Actual: 5.6%     Prior: -2.2%     House Price Index MoM:   Survey: -0.2%       Actual: .7%      Prior: -0.7%    Revised: -1.2%

Home Sales & House Price Index Data due at 10AM Posted: 22 Dec 2010 06:00 AM PST

US GDP, Personal Consumption & PCE All Lower Than Expected Posted: 22 Dec 2010 05:31 AM PST GDP (QoQ) Annualized:      Survey: 2.8%          Actual: 2.6%            Prior:  2.5%          Personal Consumption:     Survey: 2.9%          Actual: 2.4%           Prior:  2.8%           GDP Price Index:     Survey:  2.3%         Actual: 2.1%       Prior:  2.3%        Core PCE (QoQ):    Survey:  0.8%         Actual: 0.5%        Prior: 0.8%

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.22.2010 Posted: 22 Dec 2010 05:25 AM PST Good Morning: Today we are awaiting the final GDP data for Q3.  The markets anticipate a higher than previously estimated number. The USD was a touch softer as investors look for higher-yielding assets as the economic picture globally is looking a little brighter. The euro was stronger after Germany announced that import prices rose 10% over a year ago. Cable was lower after data in the UK showed that they British economy grew at a slower pace than originally estimated. World equity markets were mixed-and US futures are flat at this time. Oil rose to over $90/bar overnight. Oil:$90.18                                                                              Gold:$1388.40   TIME FOR EST. PRIOR 7:00A.M. MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS 17-Dec -2.30% 8:30A.M. GDP QoQ (ANNUALIZED0 3Q T 2.80% 2.50% 8:30A.M. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION      3Q T 2.80% 2.80% 8:30A.M. GDP PRICE INDEX  3Q T 2.30% 2.30% 8:30A.M. CORE PCE QoQ 3Q T 0.80% 0.80% 10:00A.M. EXISTING HOME SALES  NOV.  4.75M      4.43M 10:00A.M. EXISTING HOME SALES  MoM NOV. 7.20% -2.20% 10:00A.M. HOUSE PRICE INDEX MoM OCT. -0.20% -0.70% HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

8:30AM US Data Includes: GDP, Personal Consumption & PCE Posted: 22 Dec 2010 04:20 AM PST

UK Current Account Worse Than Expected Posted: 22 Dec 2010 01:33 AM PST Current account came in at -9.6B versus the -8.1B forecast and 0.8% prior reading. Additionally, final GDP was also worse at 0.7% versus the 0.8% survey.

German Import Prices m/m Posted: 21 Dec 2010 11:01 PM PST Import prices came in at 1.2%; better than the 0.5% forecast and -0.2% prior reading. The market had a limited reaction to the release.

12-22 Economic Calendar Posted: 21 Dec 2010 08:50 PM PST

Live education rebroadcast Dec 21 2010 Webinar Posted: 21 Dec 2010 04:10 PM PST Live education rebroadcast Dec 21 2010 FXDD Webinar - Watch now This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

GBPUSD moves below the floor bottom at 1.5452 Posted: 21 Dec 2010 11:01 AM PST The level came in at the 1.5452 level. The low reached has extended to 1.5434. Looking for the price to maintain below the 1.5456 level. Otherwise, could get a reactionary move higher on the disappointment from the break. Keeping the bearish bias would target a move to test the 200 day MA at the 1.5388 level currently.

EURUSD pushes below 200 day MA. 50% retracement next target Posted: 21 Dec 2010 10:32 AM PST

Forex Midday Report- Dec 21 Posted: 21 Dec 2010 09:30 AM PST

EURUSD has broken the floor at the 1.3130 level Posted: 21 Dec 2010 07:37 AM PST The 1.3130 level has been broken and the pair has been staying below the level. The problem is the low for the day at the 1.3112 level has also held. So the market is pausing between support and resistance. Key support comes in below at the 1.3098 level which is the 200 day MA today. Yesterdays low at 1.3094 will also provide support for the pair. With the action today a move back above the 1.3130 level will likely lead to increased covering. Without the move, the downside will be further explored. Risk is limited.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Forex Morning Report- Dec 21
• Fed extends swap arrangements with ECB, BOJ and BOE
• GBPUSD surges higher off a break of intraday resistance
• EURUSD spurts to the upside. Test resistance levels
• Canada Retail Sales Improve
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.21.2010
• Canada Retail Sales Data due at 8:30AM
• Canada CPI less than expectations
• UK Public Sector net borrowing wider than expected
• Portugal rating on review for downgrade by Moody’s
• Swiss trade balance
• GfK German Consumer Climate slightly weaker, Euro still gains
• 12-21 Economic Calendar
• EURUSD influenced fundamentals but the technical hold support

Forex Morning Report- Dec 21 Posted: 21 Dec 2010 06:30 AM PST

Fed extends swap arrangements with ECB, BOJ and BOE Posted: 21 Dec 2010 06:03 AM PST This is designed to increase liquidity conditions on a global basis to insure end of year liquidity pressures do not materialize and should there be issues in 2011, that they too have a release valve.

GBPUSD surges higher off a break of intraday resistance Posted: 21 Dec 2010 05:52 AM PST

EURUSD spurts to the upside. Test resistance levels Posted: 21 Dec 2010 05:37 AM PST The EURUSD has had 3 spurts today. One to the downside, and two to the upside. The most recent took the price above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart toward the resistance level against the 38.2% retracement of the move down from Fridays high to the low (at 1.3195) and the high from yesterday’s trade at 1.3185. For a look at the technical picture click on the following link

Canada Retail Sales Improve Posted: 21 Dec 2010 05:31 AM PST Retail Sales:       Survey: 0.5%        Actual: 0.8%       Prior:  0.6%        Revised: 0.4% Retail Sales Less Autos (MoM):      Survey: 0.7%       Actual: 0.9%     Prior:  0.4%     Revised: 0.2%

The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 21 Dec 2010 05:15 AM PST

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.21.2010 Posted: 21 Dec 2010 05:15 AM PST Good Morning: Moody’s Investor Services stated today that they may be looking at a rating downgrade for Portugal, as they state that “sluggish” growth in Portugal will be the main culprit in any upcoming downgrade. Comments from China that they have taken “concrete action” to ease the sovereign debt crisis, and that China backs  the EU’s efforts to ensure financial stability helped the Euro maintain throughout the morning trading session.  Air travel is still causing disruptions throughout Europe.  Frankfurt airport was closed this morning, and London’s Heathrow airport is running at 1/3 capacity.  The trip home for the Christmas holiday in Europe is going to be a chore-as there is no predicted letup in the bad weather-and it will take days to clear out the already crowded airspace. Asia and European equity markets were higher-and US Futures are also higher at this time. Oil:$89.45                                                 Gold:$1387.30  No major data due out today. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Canada Retail Sales Data due at 8:30AM Posted: 21 Dec 2010 05:04 AM PST

Canada CPI less than expectations Posted: 21 Dec 2010 04:55 AM PST The CPI in Canada came in weaker than expectations at 0.1 vs expectations of 0.3%. The core inflation came in at 0.0% vs 0.2% expectations. The YoY numbers were also lower than expectations. Consumer price inflation is not a problem.  The USDCAD moved higher on the news but stalled for now at the 1.0205 level once again (high was 1.0206). This level was the initial low way back in October 2009 and has been a price the market traders “remember”.  Yesterday the market traded to a high price of 1.0208 but quickly came off that level.  A move through the 1.0205-08 level should solicit additional buying interest today. If the level holds, a rotation back down is warranted.

UK Public Sector net borrowing wider than expected Posted: 21 Dec 2010 01:36 AM PST UK Public Sector net borrowing came in at 22.8B, wider than the 16.8B expected. This figure measures the difference in value between spending and income for public corporations, the central government, and local governments during the previous month, thus a wider or greater difference is bad for the currency. Gbp/Usd is off about 15 points since release,presently at 1.5515.

Portugal rating on review for downgrade by Moody’s Posted: 21 Dec 2010 12:09 AM PST This news sent Eur/Usd tumbling from 1.3190 to 1.3147 in a flash. The pair is trying to recoup, currently at 1.3163.

Swiss trade balance Posted: 20 Dec 2010 11:17 PM PST Swiss trade balance came in at 1.93B, slightly weaker than the 1.98B expected and the 2.10B prior reading. Usd/Chf currently trades near session lows, at .9615.

GfK German Consumer Climate slightly weaker, Euro still gains Posted: 20 Dec 2010 11:09 PM PST GfK German Consumer Climate came out at 5.4, weaker than the 5.8 expected and 5.5 prior reading. Eur/Usd continues to look bid, even in wake of weak number, in early European trade. The pair has just made a new high of 1.3194.

12-21 Economic Calendar Posted: 20 Dec 2010 08:50 PM PST

EURUSD influenced fundamentals but the technical hold support Posted: 20 Dec 2010 02:59 PM PST The market was ripe from a move lower in the EURUSD today. Worries about country issues in the Eurozone started to spread to worries about France and their credit rating. However, snow in Europe, the holiday week and good technical support against the 200 day moving average (at 1.3101), kept the pair supported. Going into the new day, the market will be focused on the 200 day MA at the 1.3001 level. A break of the key MA will next focus on the 50% retracement of the longer term move up from the June low of 1.1876 to the November high of 1.4281. That level comes in at 1.3078. A move below these two key levels should catch the markets attention and lead to further downside momentum. The 1.3130 level was a strong ceiling on the upside during the NY trading day. A move above this level will next target the 1.3158 level, then the high for the day at 1.3185. A break above this level will likely move the pair back toward the 100 hour MA as the market continues to struggle with a solid direction for the pair.

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