Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• US New Home Sales Rise 18% in December
• Builders stopped building so supply gets knocked down
• Forex Morning Report now ready- Jan 26
• RBNZ Interest Rate decision awaited
• EURUSD tries the downside in early NY trade
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.26.2011
• The Opening Forex Commentary for January 26th
• US New Home Sales Data due at 10AM
• Irish Parliament backs finance bill
• Mortgage Applications fell 12.9%
• EUR/CHF Higher
• 1.3743 next stop for euro?
• Sterling rallies on MPC minutes
• UK MPC meeting minutes due out in 25 minutes…
• Italian retail sales

US New Home Sales Rise 18% in December Posted: 26 Jan 2011 07:05 AM PST Number of new homes for sale is lowest since January of 1968 New Home Sales:   Survey: 300k   Actual: 329K   Prior:290K  Revised:  280K DEC vs. NOV Total Sold:  22K vs 20K Not Started:  5K vs 3K Under Construction:  6K vs 5K Complete:  11K vs 12K New Home Sales(MoM):  Survey: 3.5%   Actual: 17.5%   Prior: 5.5%  Revised:  0.0%

Builders stopped building so supply gets knocked down Posted: 26 Jan 2011 07:02 AM PST The supply of homes for sale is at the lowest level since Jan 1968 Median Price $241,500 up 8.5% from year ago Supply of homes falls to 6.9 Months (april 2010 reached 6.3 month) This is good data and coupled with the Existing Home sales data suggests that supply is getting back in line.

Forex Morning Report now ready- Jan 26 Posted: 26 Jan 2011 06:30 AM PST Forex Morning Report now ready- Jan 26

RBNZ Interest Rate decision awaited Posted: 26 Jan 2011 06:06 AM PST Today at 3PM the RBNZ will announce their interest rate decision with expectations of an unchanged decision. The NZDUSD has held the 200 hour MA in trading today. A break below is needed to switch the bias to the downside.

EURUSD tries the downside in early NY trade Posted: 26 Jan 2011 05:46 AM PST

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.26.2011 Posted: 26 Jan 2011 05:29 AM PST Good Morning: The Euro gained in overnight trading as optimism grows that the EU will contain the debt crisis as the economy recovers within the region. Last night’s State of the Union address by President Obama was well received.  The President called for a partial freeze on government spending as part of his plan to quell the out of control US budget deficit. Executive and economists at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland commented that the measures spelled out in the President’s State of the Union is not enough to seriously cut the deficit.  Not being able to control the deficit is one of the biggest risks for the global recovery. At 2:15 PM this afternoon the FOMC will make an announcement regarding interst rates and QE programs. Equity markets are higher-as are US Futures. Oil:$86.84                                             Gold:$1333.40 7:00A.M. MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS 21-Jan 5.00% 10:00A.M. NEW HOME SALES  DEC. 300K 290K 10:00A.M. NEW HOME SALES MoM      DEC. 3.50% 5.50% 2:15P.M. FOMC RATE DECISION         HAVE AGREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

The Opening Forex Commentary for January 26th Posted: 26 Jan 2011 05:08 AM PST

US New Home Sales Data due at 10AM Posted: 26 Jan 2011 04:37 AM PST

Irish Parliament backs finance bill Posted: 26 Jan 2011 04:18 AM PST The vote was a razor thin 80 to 78. The EURUSD reacts to the upside.

Mortgage Applications fell 12.9% Posted: 26 Jan 2011 04:16 AM PST The Purchase index fell by -8.7% and the refinancing index fell by -15.3%.  The Average rate on a 30 year mortgage rose slightly to 4.8% from 4.77%

EUR/CHF Higher Posted: 26 Jan 2011 02:34 AM PST Euro has been trading higher, most notably in the EUR/CHF pair. Seen below, the pair is making a pass through the 100 hour moving average and may reach the 61.8% line on the move from January 25th highs to yesterday’s lows. Resistance shown by the 100 hour MAVG could bring the pair back to the 50% line.

1.3743 next stop for euro? Posted: 26 Jan 2011 01:48 AM PST It appears that after continually closing higher every day since January 10th, the next stop for the EUR/USD may be 1.37431.

Sterling rallies on MPC minutes Posted: 26 Jan 2011 01:35 AM PST Voted 6-2-1 to leave rate unchanged, bond plan unchanged. MPC’s Swan saw risk CPI remains above target in medium term. BOE’s Weale joined Sentance in voting for 25 basis point rate increase. Small rate rise would leave policy “highly accommodative”. BOE says “most likely prospect” is for continued U.K. growth. CPI risk change may be casr for some stimulus withdrawal. BOe says U.K. recovery continued “broadly as expected”. Seen below, GBP/USD traded all the way up to 1.58707 following the release, but immediatley came off following some consolidation earlier in the session.   Additionally, BBA mortgage approvals came in at 28.7K; worse than the 29.9K survey and 29.7K prior release.

UK MPC meeting minutes due out in 25 minutes… Posted: 26 Jan 2011 01:06 AM PST

Italian retail sales Posted: 26 Jan 2011 01:01 AM PST The market showed a limited reaction acter Italy’s retail sales came in at -0.3%; worse than the 0.1% forecast ad 0.3% prior reading.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• US Consumer Confidence Rises, House Price Index Stays Flat & Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Lower
• Greg Michalowski on FXstreet- Live Education Class 10am
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• S&P CaseShiller Home Price Index Lower
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.25.2011
• US Consumer Confidence, House Price Index & Richmond Fed Data due at 10AM
• EURUSD maintains support at 1.3575 to 1.3577
• BOE Osborne sees rates lower for longer
• GBPUSD holding above the 100 day MA
• ECB Nowotny watching inflation closely
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• US S&P CaseShiller Data due at 9AM
• Canada CPI slightly worse: monthly came in at 0.0% and yearly was 2.4%
• Canada CPI in 30 minutes…
• UK Prelim GDP Worse

US Consumer Confidence Rises, House Price Index Stays Flat & Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Lower Posted: 25 Jan 2011 07:08 AM PST     Consumer Confidence:    Survey: 54.0   Actual:  60.6    Prior: 52.5    Revised: 53.3 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index:      Survey: 22     Actual: 18      Prior: 25 Business Activity: Jan vs. Dec Overall Index: 18 vs 25 Shipments: 23 vs 30 New Order Volume: 17 vs 29 Order Backlog: 5 vs 14 Capacity Utilization: 18 vs 21 Vendor Lead Time: 15 vs 17 Number of Employees: 14 vs 14 Average Workweek: 20 vs 15 Wages: 13 vs 16 House Price Index MoM:   Survey:  0.0%       Actual: 0.0%      Prior: 0.7%    Revised: 0.2%

Greg Michalowski on FXstreet- Live Education Class 10am Posted: 25 Jan 2011 06:28 AM PST Greg Michalowski on FXstreet- Live Education Class 10am (whoops 11 AM! Sorry) >> Details

The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 25 Jan 2011 06:03 AM PST NY Morning Forex Commentary is available   Register for the webinar at 4PM. “The Clues from Moving Averages” http://forex.fxdd.com/98892/misc/fxdd-live-education-class-this-online-tuesday-4pm

S&P CaseShiller Home Price Index Lower Posted: 25 Jan 2011 06:03 AM PST S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind:    Actual: 143.85     Prior: 145.32     Revised: 145.26 S&P/CS 20 City (MoM%) SA:              Survey: -0.80%     Actual: -.54%     Prior: -.99%     Revised:  -1.00% S&P/CS Composite-20 (YOY):           Survey: -1.60%     Actual: -1.59%     Prior: -.80%    Revised: -.84%

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.25.2011 Posted: 25 Jan 2011 05:50 AM PST Good Morning: The big news in the overnight FX markets was that the GBP was pounded after very disappointing UK GDP data. Cold weather hurt both the construction and services sector-thus leading to the decline in cable.  Data showing that this past December was the coldest in over 100 years also attributed to the decline.  Investors are sorting out if this is an issue with the overall weakness of the British economy, or is this just a one off problem due to the weather. This data will certainly put pressure on the BOE to come up with a plan that combats inflation and increases growth in the country. Concerns over Spain’s debt problems-along with news that Spanish banks may need additional capital were also center stage in the FX markets. The Fed begins a 2 day meeting today-and President Obama will make his State of the Union address tonight at 9 PM. Today we have data on home prices and Consumer Confidence. Asian and European equity markets are mostly mixed-and US Futures are also pointing to a lower opening this morning. Oil:$86.70                                                                                  Gold:$1329.20 TIME FOR EST. PRIOR 9:00A.M. S&P CASE SHILLER HOME PRICE IND NOV. 145.3O 9:00A.M. S&P /CS 20 CITY MoM% SA NOV. -0.80% -0.99% 9:00A.M. S&P /CS COMPOSITE -20 YoY     NOV. -1.60% -0.80% 10:00A.M. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE  JAN. 54.O 52.5O 10:00A.M. HOUSE PRICE INDEX MoM NOV. 0.00% 0.70% 10:00A.M. RICHMOND FED MANUFACT.INDEX JAN. 22.O     25.O HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

US Consumer Confidence, House Price Index & Richmond Fed Data due at 10AM Posted: 25 Jan 2011 05:46 AM PST

EURUSD maintains support at 1.3575 to 1.3577 Posted: 25 Jan 2011 05:29 AM PST

BOE Osborne sees rates lower for longer Posted: 25 Jan 2011 05:23 AM PST The BOE Osborne is on the newswires saying the central bank has freedom to keep rates lower for longer

GBPUSD holding above the 100 day MA Posted: 25 Jan 2011 05:17 AM PST

ECB Nowotny watching inflation closely Posted: 25 Jan 2011 05:07 AM PST He is on on the newswires reiterating Jean Claude Trichets worries about inflation in the first half but sees no marked increase for the whole year. (”Watching inflation very closely”). He addst that exit process depend on economic development.

The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 25 Jan 2011 04:53 AM PST   GBPUSD suffered on the back of much weaker GDP today.  GBPUSD tests key 100 day MA at 1.5758. Key level today EURUSD fell in sympathy with the GBPUSD fall but has rebounded (EURGBP rises).  The pair held key support at 1.3577 (midpoint of Nov 2010 to Jan 2011 low) USDJPY remains contained between technical levels. USDCHF fell on flight to quality bids for CHF.  Bearish bias unless the price moves above 0.9484 (see analysis) USDCAD rose on slower CPI inflation. The price is above0.9976-82 area which is now support.  Stay above and should see higher prices EURGBP rallies above 100 day MA and trendline break Webinar later today. To register, click on the following link: http://forex.fxdd.com/98892/misc/fxdd-live-education-class-this-online-tuesday-4pm

US S&P CaseShiller Data due at 9AM Posted: 25 Jan 2011 04:53 AM PST

Canada CPI slightly worse: monthly came in at 0.0% and yearly was 2.4% Posted: 25 Jan 2011 04:00 AM PST

Canada CPI in 30 minutes… Posted: 25 Jan 2011 03:28 AM PST

UK Prelim GDP Worse Posted: 25 Jan 2011 01:30 AM PST (q/q) - Survey: 0.5%   Actual: -0.5%  Prior: 0.7% (y/y) - Survey: 2.6%   Actual: 1.7%   Prior: 2.7% Sterling sells of on the release.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• ECB says bond purchases slowed to 146 million last week
• EURUSD test target resistance at 1.3621
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• AUDUSD tests 38.2% retracement on hourly chart
• EURUSD moves higher in early NY trade
• Traders eye 100 day MA in the Gold today
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.24.2011
• The dollar is higher to start the NY trading day
• Sarkozy comments
• Eurozone Industrial Orders
• USD/CAD trading at 50% line on hourly
• Euro zone PMI
• German manufactruing PMI was 60.2 and services PMI was 60.0
• German Flash @ 3:30 am (eastern)
• Cable can’t close through 100 hr MAVG

ECB says bond purchases slowed to 146 million last week Posted: 24 Jan 2011 06:52 AM PST The ECB announced that bond purchases fell sharply in the current week to 146 million euros.  This is much less than the 2.313 billion euros purchased the week prior when key bond auctions were being conducted in Portugal, Italy, Spain. The amount is back in line with recent bond purchases and is likely contributing to the better tone (on relief it was not a permanent change). ECBs Trichet was in the WSJ today talking about the high inflation and with bond purchases down, the market seems to be thinking that the measures put in place to spur on growth, might be starting to slow and ECB tightening is getting closer. There is also a research firm who is talking about a closer ECB tightening cycle as well which is making the rounds in the market. That coupled with continued shorts in the EURUSD has led to a sharp move back within the channel on the EURUSD hourly chart.   Look for support against the 1.3621 level now. This level is the old channel support line. I expect it to reassert itself as support now.

EURUSD test target resistance at 1.3621 Posted: 24 Jan 2011 06:44 AM PST A break above would next target the high for the day at 1.3641 and signal a more bullish bias for the pair.

The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 24 Jan 2011 06:40 AM PST

AUDUSD tests 38.2% retracement on hourly chart Posted: 24 Jan 2011 06:19 AM PST The AUDUSD is bumping against the 38.2% retracement resistance at the 0.9924  level. Above that is the 200 and 100 hour MA at the 0.9936-39 level. The levels should be used by buyers from below to take profit. Stops should be eyed on a break above 0.9940 as it increases the bullish bias for the pair. On the downside, look for intraday support against the 0.9900-04 area (see chart below). A move below this level, likely leads to a new move toward the most recent lows.

EURUSD moves higher in early NY trade Posted: 24 Jan 2011 05:42 AM PST The EURUSD has found it’s bullish bias again in early NY trading as it moves above the 1.3577 level (50% of 1.4281 high/1.2873 low), and the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute intraday chart. The next targets come in between 1.3613-22.  If the price stays above the 1.3577 level where the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart and the 38.2% of the days range are found, and the price bias remains bullish (see chart below). The next key target above the 1.3622 level is the high for the day at 1.3641.

Traders eye 100 day MA in the Gold today Posted: 24 Jan 2011 05:24 AM PST

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Jan.24.2011 Posted: 24 Jan 2011 05:22 AM PST Good Morning: USD strengthened as profit takers took center stage in the first session of the week.  Improved earnings reports also aided the USD.  This weeks data which includes durable goods, consumer confidence, and US growth will hopefully show that the US economic recovery is finally showing signs of recovery. Speculation is that the positive data that is expected will be dollar positive for the markets. Asian equity markets were mixed, European markets are lower-and US Futres are slightly higher at this time. Oil dropped as Saudi Arabia’s Oil Minister made comments that OPEC may increase supplies to keep up with the continuing demand by China and India. Oil:$88.73                                                                   Gold:$1348.10 No major data due out today. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

The dollar is higher to start the NY trading day Posted: 24 Jan 2011 05:01 AM PST   EURUSD falls below channel trendline, but remains support below GBPUSD has key trendline as support today USDJPY needs to break 100 day MA in order to push higher USDCHF remains bearish EURJPY has support against 200 day MA at 112.24 USDCAD has support at 09951 and resistance between 0.9976-82 For a look at these currency pairs and what levels to watch today, watch the Opening Forex Commentary.

Sarkozy comments Posted: 24 Jan 2011 02:29 AM PST Speaking at a press conference in Paris, French President Nicolas Sarkzoy made the following comments: This is not the time to dismantle EU policy. Financial transactions tax discourages speculation. France doesn’t want capital controls. First objective is coordination, boosting growth. Wants indicators to highlight imbalances. Seeks ways to limit reserve accumulation. IMF has role in surveying imbalances. Wants Germany and Mexico to so-chair monetary system committee. Doesn’t want to question the roll of the USD.

Eurozone Industrial Orders Posted: 24 Jan 2011 02:15 AM PST EZ Industrial Orders increased by 2.1% from last month. A 2.3% increase was expected. Eur/Usd currently trades at 1.3575.

USD/CAD trading at 50% line on hourly Posted: 24 Jan 2011 01:18 AM PST Looking at the hourly chart, the pair made a turnaround once reaching the 200 hour moving average on Friday. It traded up to the 50% fibo line on the move from January 19th lows to 20th highs, but then retreated lower where it found some support from the 100 hour moving average. After some buying it is now back at the 50%, but with little momentum. Further moves higher could see the pair trade at .9975, but resistance could find it back towards .99422.

Euro zone PMI Posted: 24 Jan 2011 01:02 AM PST Flash manufacturing PMI - Survey: 57.1   Actual: 56.9  Prior: 57.1 Flash services PMI - Survey: 54.2   Actual: 55.2   Prior: 54.2 The EUR traded slightly higher on the release.

German manufactruing PMI was 60.2 and services PMI was 60.0 Posted: 24 Jan 2011 12:35 AM PST

German Flash @ 3:30 am (eastern) Posted: 23 Jan 2011 11:56 PM PST

Cable can’t close through 100 hr MAVG Posted: 23 Jan 2011 10:54 PM PST After trading continually downward to start the week, the GBP/USD may be seeing some support in the area of the 100 hour moving average. A close below the 100 hr, currently coming in at 1.59604, may be a bullish signal for the pair in which case we may look to the 38.2% line as our next target. Continued support would see the pair head back towards 1.60152.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• The Weekend Technical Forex Report is available for viewing
• New highs being made in EURUSD and GBPUSD
• Forex Midday Report- Jan 21
• EURUSD retraces back down after move above 1.3577
• EURJPY test 200 day MA. Price has not been above since January 2010
• EURUSD tests the 50% retracement target

The Weekend Technical Forex Report is available for viewing Posted: 21 Jan 2011 01:14 PM PST

New highs being made in EURUSD and GBPUSD Posted: 21 Jan 2011 12:10 PM PST

Forex Midday Report- Jan 21 Posted: 21 Jan 2011 09:28 AM PST Forex Midday Report- Jan 21

EURUSD retraces back down after move above 1.3577 Posted: 21 Jan 2011 08:31 AM PST

EURJPY test 200 day MA. Price has not been above since January 2010 Posted: 21 Jan 2011 08:08 AM PST The EURJPY has been below the 200 day MA since January 14, 2010. At that time the 200 day MA was way up at 133.00.  Today, the pair is testing the key MA at the 112.36 level.  A break of the level should be a significant milestone and should lead to further upside momentum from a technical perspective.   The high corresponds with the technical resistance in the EURUSD at the 50% retracement at 1.3577.

EURUSD tests the 50% retracement target Posted: 21 Jan 2011 07:52 AM PST The EURUSD is making new highs and testing the 50% retracement target of the move down from the NOvember 2010 high to the low reached in January at the 1.3577 level.  The price has moved slightly above the level at 1.3585 as shorts get squeezed before the London/Europe close.  If the price can stay above the 1.3563 level the market should keep the bullish bias.

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