Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• US S&P Case-Shiller Data
• Canada Retail Sales Data Lower
• Canada Retail Sales Data Due at 8:30AM
• ECB’s Mersch; may warn of upside inflation risks on March 3rd
• UK Public Sector Net Borrowing
• Swiss Trade Balance
• German GfK Consumer Climate
• 2-22 Economic Calendar
• Turmoil & Outlook Push Risk Lower
• Earthquake weakens NZD
• Cable Trades Down to 100 Hour Moving Average
• Kiwi inflation expectations as expected at 2.6%
• Fitch affirms Japan’s downgrade, with stable outlook.
• NZ Inflation Expectations (q/q) at 9 pm (eastern)
• Moody’s changes Japan’s Aa2 rating outlook to negative.

US S&P Case-Shiller Data Posted: 22 Feb 2011 06:03 AM PST S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Ind:    Actual: 142.42    Prior: 143.85     Revised: 143.80 S&P/CS 20 City (MoM%) SA:              Survey: -0.50%     Actual:  -.41%     Prior: -0.54%     Revised:  -.55% S&P/CS Composite-20 (YOY):           Survey: -2.30%     Actual: -2.38%     Prior: -1.59%    Revised: -1.62% S&P/CaseShiller US HPI:                      Actual: 130.38       Prior: 135.48    Revised: 135.64 S&P/CaseShiller US HPI (YoY%):    Survey: -3.40%    Actual: -4.13%    Prior: -1.51%     Revised: -1.36%

Canada Retail Sales Data Lower Posted: 22 Feb 2011 05:36 AM PST

Canada Retail Sales Data Due at 8:30AM Posted: 22 Feb 2011 04:46 AM PST

ECB’s Mersch; may warn of upside inflation risks on March 3rd Posted: 22 Feb 2011 02:34 AM PST Eur/Usd jumped 40 points to 1.3612 on news.

UK Public Sector Net Borrowing Posted: 22 Feb 2011 01:45 AM PST UK Public Sector Net Borrowing came in at -5.3B, better than the -0.2B projected. This is a good number for GBP as it quantifies the difference in value between spending and income for public corporations, the central government, and local governments during the previous month, Gbp/Usd recieved a 15 point bump to 1.6170.

Swiss Trade Balance Posted: 21 Feb 2011 11:05 PM PST Swiss Trade Balance came in at a 1.96B surplus, stronger than the 1.65B surplus forecasted. Usd/Chf trades at .9480 and Eur/Chf at 1.2865, relatively unaffected.

German GfK Consumer Climate Posted: 21 Feb 2011 11:02 PM PST German GfK Consumer Climate came in at 6.0, stronger than the 5.8 expected and 5.7 prior reading. Eur/Usd has not felt any affect from number as the pair continues to trade around 1.3590.

2-22 Economic Calendar Posted: 21 Feb 2011 08:42 PM PST

Turmoil & Outlook Push Risk Lower Posted: 21 Feb 2011 07:38 PM PST From the turn of the trading day we have seen extreme volatility in FX markets as global geopolitical turmoil in North Africa and the Middle East continues to hold the headlines and recently we have seen Moody’s downgrade Japan’s Aa2 rating outlook to negative (reiterated by Fitch Ratings.) On the back of this news the EUR has sold off across the board most notably against the CHF and the USD as a flight to quality and safety is on investors minds. The EUR/USD is off over a full figure this session as it trades below the 50% retracement of the move from the November 2010 highs. The 100 day moving average could be tested below that in the short-term and a more significant USD trade could be in store as the aforementioned issues continue.

Earthquake weakens NZD Posted: 21 Feb 2011 07:02 PM PST A few hours ago an enormous earthquake hit Christchurch, New Zealand leaving multiple fatalities; the NZD has since sold off following the tragedy. It appears that from both an hourly and daily perspective the next downside target is the .7500 handle. .75035 is a full hourly retracement on the move from Feb 15th lows to Friday’s highs. Seen here, the pair is testing the 61.8% daily line on the move from December 16th up to the high on Feb 8th. Continued selling could see the pair back at .7500; the low on Feb 15th and 16th.

Cable Trades Down to 100 Hour Moving Average Posted: 21 Feb 2011 06:23 PM PST After trading mildly during the U.S session, which was on holiday, the GBP/USD saw some selling after Asia came into the equation. See below, the pair traded all the way down to the 100 hour moving average which comes in at 1.6165, but is recovering slightly. If pullback continues, the first topside target is the 38.2% line at 1.61898.

Kiwi inflation expectations as expected at 2.6% Posted: 21 Feb 2011 06:09 PM PST

Fitch affirms Japan’s downgrade, with stable outlook. Posted: 21 Feb 2011 05:36 PM PST

NZ Inflation Expectations (q/q) at 9 pm (eastern) Posted: 21 Feb 2011 05:25 PM PST

Moody’s changes Japan’s Aa2 rating outlook to negative. Posted: 21 Feb 2011 05:10 PM PST

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• BOE Weale says increase in rates may prevent bigger move later
• German IFO stronger than expectations
• German Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI
• French Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI
• ECB’s Bini Smaghi; seems to view tightening sooner than later
• 2-21 Economic Calendar
• UK Rightmove HPI 3.1%; better than the prior release of 0.3%

BOE Weale says increase in rates may prevent bigger move later Posted: 21 Feb 2011 05:27 AM PST Policy members must think of medium term risk Higher rate would not bring CPI to target quickly All economic recoveries are subject to risk. The comments suggest that Weale is likely to be a dissenting vote. He dissented in January so this will not be something new.    On Wednesday, the BOE minutes from their last meeting will be released. In January, 6 members voted with Mervyn King, Weale and Andrew Sentence dissented in favor of raising rates and one member Posen preferred to add 50 billion of extra stimulus.

German IFO stronger than expectations Posted: 21 Feb 2011 01:05 AM PST German IFO Business Climate came in at 111.2, stronger than the 110.3 expected. Current Assessment came in at 114.7, stronger than the 113.0 expected. IFO Expectations came in at 107.9, stronger than the 107.5 expected. This news pushed Euro above 1.3700, as the pair currently trades at 1.3707.

German Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI Posted: 21 Feb 2011 12:46 AM PST German Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 62.6, stronger than the 60.3 expected. Services PMI came in at 59.5, weaker than the 60.3 expected. Eur/Usd is looking to break above 1.3700 upon release of this news. The pair currently resides just shy at 1.3695.

French Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI Posted: 21 Feb 2011 12:06 AM PST French Flash Manufacturing PMI came in at 55.3, stronger than the 55.0 expected. Flash Services PMI came in at 60.8, stronger than the 58.0 expected. Eur/Usd currently trades at 1.3675, relatively unchanged.

ECB’s Bini Smaghi; seems to view tightening sooner than later Posted: 20 Feb 2011 10:54 PM PST  ECB’s Bini Smaghi is speaking in Hong Kong. He believes that there is no single fiscal policy that is good for the Eurozone as a whole. He doesn’t feel that decentralized policies are necessarily bad. Growth and unemployment are better than expected. His comments are likely to lead to speculation that he views tightening sooner rather than later. This is not a new stance for Bini Smaghi.

2-21 Economic Calendar Posted: 20 Feb 2011 09:42 PM PST

UK Rightmove HPI 3.1%; better than the prior release of 0.3% Posted: 20 Feb 2011 04:35 PM PST

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• The Week Ahead from FXDD
• EURUSD makes it to 1.3700
• The Midday Forex Commentary
• Silver moves to 31 year high
• Greg & Bill Week Ahead Webinar 9:30am Monday
• EURUSD breaks higher and moves toward 1.3667 next target
• Egypt approves passing of warship through Suez Canal
• GBPUSD tests intraday support
• ECB Draghi urges tighter fiscal rules in WSJ article

The Week Ahead from FXDD Posted: 18 Feb 2011 03:27 PM PST CLICK HERE FOR THE PDF VERSION

EURUSD makes it to 1.3700 Posted: 18 Feb 2011 10:47 AM PST The EURUSD has pushed above the 1.3686 and 1.3695 level and now looks toward the high for February at the 1.3745 level.  On the downside, the price staying above 1.3686 and below that the 1.3670 keep the bias firmly to the upside (1.3670 is the upward trendline in the chart above).   The 5 minute chart below also supports the 1.3670 level as a level to eye below. That level corresponds with the 38.2% retracement of the last move higher in the pair. Intraday traders will look at the trend legs higher and use the 38.2% as a support level to stay above.  Trends are fast. Trends are directional. Looking at the chart from earlier today, the price retraced 38.2% before moving higher (see chart below).

The Midday Forex Commentary Posted: 18 Feb 2011 10:11 AM PST

Silver moves to 31 year high Posted: 18 Feb 2011 09:08 AM PST Silver has surged to new highs today, breaking through trendline resistance at the 32.18 level (see daily chart above). As long as the price can remain above this level the upside is favored.

Greg & Bill Week Ahead Webinar 9:30am Monday Posted: 18 Feb 2011 08:57 AM PST Greg Michalowski & Bill Lawless FXDD Week Ahead webinar 9:30am EST Monday Feb 21 2011. This is a new program we are introducing to cover the upcoming week of news releases and market information. Register here

EURUSD breaks higher and moves toward 1.3667 next target Posted: 18 Feb 2011 08:27 AM PST The EURUSD broke above the 1.3644 level and stops were triggered. The price next targets channel trendline resistance at the 1.3667 level. After that the 1.3686-95 become targets for the pair.  On the downside 1.3640-44 is support.

Egypt approves passing of warship through Suez Canal Posted: 18 Feb 2011 08:21 AM PST The USDCHF has moved lower along with the dollar in general. EURUSD moves to new highs Gold moves higher too.

GBPUSD tests intraday support Posted: 18 Feb 2011 07:56 AM PST The GBPUSD is down testing support at the 1.6207 level (38.2% of the days range). The GBPUSD had a boost today on the much bettter than expected Retail Sales report, but has found some selling pressure as the NY morning has progressed. The pair approaches support against the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart above and the 38.2% retracement of the days surge higher at 1.6207. A move below these levels should solicit additional selling.  On a break lower the 1.6195 (50% of the days range) and the more important 1.6177 level (trendline on the hourly chart) becomes the target for the pair.

ECB Draghi urges tighter fiscal rules in WSJ article Posted: 18 Feb 2011 07:39 AM PST http://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20110218-708271.html?mod=WSJ_latestheadlines ECBs Draghi in a WSJ article is urging tighter fiscal rules.Comments from the Italian central bank governor will be scrutinized more as he is a candidate to replace Jean Claude Trichet when he steps down in October

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Iranian troops shoot at protesters
• USDJPY remains between the “Goal Posts”
• EURUSD eases back down and finds buyers
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Watching EURUSD corrective selling levels for clues
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.18.2011
• EURGBP rises with the EURUSD
• EURUSD surges on ECB comment. Resistance at 1.3637
• ECB Bini Smaghi says may need to raise interest rates
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary
• CAD core CPI (m/m) 0.3% and core CPI 0.0%
• Canadian CPI at 7 am
• U.K. PM Cameron Speaking in London
• Zhou Speaks to Bloomberg TV
• China raises reserve ration by 50 basis points.

Iranian troops shoot at protesters Posted: 18 Feb 2011 07:11 AM PST It is being reported that Iranian troops shoot at protesters. Watching Gold and CHF

USDJPY remains between the “Goal Posts” Posted: 18 Feb 2011 07:07 AM PST USDJPY is in between the Goal Post as defined by the 100 hour MA aat the 83.50 level and the 200 hour MA at the 83.14 level currently. When it trades in between these levels I call the situation “trading between the Goal Posts”.  The levels become support and resistance but on a break higher or lower, the market should find momentum in the direction of the break. The price has been contained between the Goal Posts for the last 24 hours.

EURUSD eases back down and finds buyers Posted: 18 Feb 2011 06:58 AM PST The EURUSD eased back down after the NY surge higher. The move to the highs stalled a the 1.3644 where three separate attempts above the level were tried and failed. Omie, a FXDD fan, pointed out, the level corresponded with the 50% retracement of the move down from the February high to the February low (see chart above). The correction to the downside has found support buyers against the 38.2% retracement of the days move (1.3609 low versus 38.2% level at 1.3607).  The price  found buyers which has taken the price back toward the earlier high for the day.  (see chart below).   The 1.3338/44 level is the next upside target resistance (trendline and the 50% level cited above on the daily chart).  I expect intraday sellers against the level with stops on a move above.

The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 18 Feb 2011 06:19 AM PST

Watching EURUSD corrective selling levels for clues Posted: 18 Feb 2011 05:32 AM PST The EURUSD surge higher took the price from 1.3546 to 1.3644 in a short period of time as shorts were forced to cover.  The surge higher was likely helped by the selling that forced the pair down earlier in the day.  The market traders got caught. They were forced to cover. Now the question is are there more shorts out there. In which case, expect to see buyers emerge between the 1.3615 to 1.3626 level.  These levels represent the highs from earlier in the day.   The other key level to hold would be the 1.3607 level which is the 38.2% of the surge higher (see chart above).   So far, the correction has only come down to the high from the first few hours of trading today. IF this is the least the market can do, it suggests the shorts are still caught and worried, and a move to the 1.3662 level is the next target and could happen quickly. Another target level above comes in at 1.3686

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.18.2011 Posted: 18 Feb 2011 05:27 AM PST Good Morning: The Euro lost steam overnight as German Producer Prices rose faster than expected-thus fueling speculation that monetary officials may need to increase interest rates in the region, which would put a stranglehold on any economic recovery.  German PPI was up 1.2% for January-twice what analysts expected.  Investors are starting to get weary of the debt crisis and uncertainty that is plaguing the Euro Zone. Cable had a good day-on the heels of stronger than expected Retail Sales.  Year to year data shows that Retail Sales in the UK rose 5.3%, showing strong signs of growth as the UK pushes itself out of the economic  doldrums that has been weighing heavily on the country. World equity markets were mixed, and US Futures are slightly higher. Oil:$86.40                                                               Gold:$1385.20  No Major US Data Today. FXDD WILL BE AT THE NY TRADERS EXPO  at the Marriott Marquis in New York City from Feb.20-22-  Come by and say hi (booth #5607)   HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

EURGBP rises with the EURUSD Posted: 18 Feb 2011 05:18 AM PST The EURGBP surged higher with the EURUSD but is running into 100 hour MA and the 50% midpoint of the 4 day trading range (at 0.8401-03) that has contained the up and down trading of late in the currency pair.  This level should be an area that traders lean against to take profit, with stop buying above.

EURUSD surges on ECB comment. Resistance at 1.3637 Posted: 18 Feb 2011 05:10 AM PST ECB Bini Smaghi has commented that the ECB may have to tighten rates in a Bloomberg report, and this caused the EURUSD to surge higher. The price moved above the 200 hour MA in the process and is currently taking out the high for the day at the 1.3626 level. The next target resistance comes in at the 1.3637 level and above that the 1.3661 level (trendlines in the chart below). Earlier today the EURUSD was sold off on the back of banking concerns. Borrowings from banks at the ECB were elevated this week which could suggest bank funding issues. The higher rate comment has negated that news, but it may still solicit the sellers at higher levels against key technical levels. So be aware.

ECB Bini Smaghi says may need to raise interest rates Posted: 18 Feb 2011 05:02 AM PST This is sending the EURUSD sharply higher in early NY trading

The NY Opening Forex Commentary Posted: 18 Feb 2011 04:56 AM PST

CAD core CPI (m/m) 0.3% and core CPI 0.0% Posted: 18 Feb 2011 04:01 AM PST

Canadian CPI at 7 am Posted: 18 Feb 2011 03:28 AM PST

U.K. PM Cameron Speaking in London Posted: 18 Feb 2011 03:25 AM PST U.K recovery will be choppy. Gov’t policy means BOE can keep rates lower for longer. Path to rebalancing the economy is difficult. Balls attack on King shows a complete “lack of judgment”.

Zhou Speaks to Bloomberg TV Posted: 18 Feb 2011 02:29 AM PST PBOC Governor Zhou made comments to Bloomberg television that the reserve ratio hike is just one means to fight inflation and that China will also raise rates to counter inflation if necessary. He added that China will allow more Yuan gains.

China raises reserve ration by 50 basis points. Posted: 18 Feb 2011 02:27 AM PST

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• AUDUSD breaks higher
• USDJPY reaches target level at the 38.2% Fibo support.
• USDCAD back down at support
• Dollar not impressed with better data
• Canada Wholesale Sales Lower
• Philly Fed surges, Mortgage delinquencies fall to 8.2%
• EURUSD moves higher toward next target
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary
• US Philadelphia Fed Index & Leading Indicators Data at 10AM
• Gold moves higher on Mideast tensions
• USDCHF falls further on Iran tension. Approached next target at 0.9498
• USDJPY breaks below the 100 hour MA and floor support
• Jobless Claims Rise, CPI Data Better Across the Board
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.17.2011
• Initial Claims rise more. CPI a touch higher

AUDUSD breaks higher Posted: 17 Feb 2011 08:32 AM PST The AUDUSD moved above the 1.0072 area on the daily chart. This was a high from January 19th and the high for trading from Monday.  Off the hourly chart it also represents the 50% of the move down from the February 4th high to the low reached on the 15th.  That level came in at the 1.0071  With the two charts in agreement, when the price moved above the 1.0072 level, the market used the level as a spring board for the last move higher. That move has taken the price up to a new week high for the day and week of 1.0130. On the downside now, if the market has room to roam to the upside, look for the price to hold corrections down to the the 1.0088 (38.2% of the surge higher - see chart below). If that level holds, the bullish bias remains in charge.

USDJPY reaches target level at the 38.2% Fibo support. Posted: 17 Feb 2011 07:49 AM PST The move below the 100 hour MA and floor support at the 83.49 level targeted the 83.12 level (SEE PRIOR POST BY CLICKING HERE). The low has reached the 83.14 and is finding the bids.  Look for dip buyers against the level with additional support at the 200 hour MA at the 83.04 level. ON the topside the 83.47-50 level will be the target.

USDCAD back down at support Posted: 17 Feb 2011 07:43 AM PST The USDCAD tested the 0.9849 level on the move back above the old low at 0.9830 but could not break through. With the dollar selling, the USDCAD has sold off too. The price is back down testing the 0.9830 level.  Will buyers come in at the level?  The risk is limited, and so is the range.  Above 0.9850 or below 0.9830?

Dollar not impressed with better data Posted: 17 Feb 2011 07:17 AM PST The better/great Philly Fed index (highest since Jan 2004) is not really impressing the dollar. The EURUSD sold off but has rebounded back higher toward the high. The USDJPY rallied but is back down and making new lows.  The USDCHF is back down testing its key support target at the 0.9494-99 area. There could be a couple reasons for this. One is the market is moving to risk pairs and selling the dollar. The other idea (and more logical) is that the inflation component rising to 67.2 from 54.3 (CPI was higher as well), with ambivalence from the Fed, could be the thief that keeps the investors from the dollar.  Don’t fight it. The dollar is under pressure.

Canada Wholesale Sales Lower Posted: 17 Feb 2011 07:04 AM PST

Philly Fed surges, Mortgage delinquencies fall to 8.2% Posted: 17 Feb 2011 07:04 AM PST Leading Indicators (MoM):          Survey:  0.2%    Actual: 0.1%     Prior:  1.0%     Revised:  0.8% JAN vs. DEC Leading Index: 112.3 vs 112.2 Monthly Change: 0.1% vs 0.8% Diffusion Index: 65.0 vs 60.0 6-Mo Annual Change: 6.1% vs 6.3% 6-Mo Diffusion Index: 70.0 vs 70.0 Philadelphia Fed:   Survey: 21.0    Actual: 35.9   Prior: 19.3 Philadelphia Fed index surges to 35.9. This is the highest level since January 2004 FEB vs. JAN Prices Paid: 67.2 vs 54.3 Prices Received: 21.0 vs 17.1 New Orders: 23.7 vs 23.6 Shipments: 35.2 vs 13.4 Unfilled Orders: 14.9 vs 8.7 Delivery Time: 10.0 vs 2.3 Inventories: 2.1 vs 6.8 Number of Employees: 23.6 vs 17.6 Average Workweek: 12.8 vs 10.6   In a separate report the Mortgage Delinquincies for the 4Q fell to 8.225 from 9.13%. This was better than expected.

EURUSD moves higher toward next target Posted: 17 Feb 2011 06:55 AM PST The EURUSD has moved through the 1.3585 level (50% of the move down from the Feb 9th high) and approaches the high for the day at 1.3609. A move above this target will look toward the 1.3623 level and the 1.3630 level (See chart above).  This is the 61.8% and the trendline resistance.  This area should provide good selling interest from the market.  On the downside, the market will want to see the price stay above the 1.3575-85 level for the pair. Failure to do so, will likely be a disappointment for the pair.

The NY Morning Forex Commentary Posted: 17 Feb 2011 06:34 AM PST

US Philadelphia Fed Index & Leading Indicators Data at 10AM Posted: 17 Feb 2011 06:18 AM PST

Gold moves higher on Mideast tensions Posted: 17 Feb 2011 06:00 AM PST Gold has also moved higher on the back of Iranian ship moving toward the Suex Canal. The price is above the $1379.56 level and looks toward $1383.50 trendline resistance as the next target (see hourly chart below). The market players will be looking for the 1379.50 level to provide support on any corrective move now. This level is the 61.8% of the move down from the Jan 2011 high to the 2011 low trading range . In addition, the level is the 38.2% of the days trading range today.  With support defined at the level, a break back below will not be welcomed and likely suggests the market has the mideast event discounted.

USDCHF falls further on Iran tension. Approached next target at 0.9498 Posted: 17 Feb 2011 05:47 AM PST The talk in the market again is that Iran says will send 2 warships to the Suez Canal has the USDCHF moving lower. The next level of support/target for the USDCHF comes in at the 0.9498 level. A move through this level should solicit more flight to quality buying for the CHF (selling of the USDCHF) On the topside, staying below the 0.9536 will be eyed by the intraday momentum traders. This is the 38.2% of the sharp fall to the downside.  If the market is caught long, sellers should enter against this area.

USDJPY breaks below the 100 hour MA and floor support Posted: 17 Feb 2011 05:38 AM PST The USDJPY is breaking below the 83.49 level and will start to look toward the 83.12 level. The Initial Claims were not supportive of a measureable improvement in the employment situation. The Inflation data was not good inflation from growth.  Look for the price to find seller against the 83.54 level now.

Jobless Claims Rise, CPI Data Better Across the Board Posted: 17 Feb 2011 05:35 AM PST Consumer Price Index (MoM):    Survey: 0.3%      Actual: 0.4%    Prior:  0.5%       CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM):     Survey: 0.1%      Actual:  0.2%    Prior:  0.1%      Consumer Price Index  (y/y):     Survey: 1.6%   Actual: 1.6%   Prior: 1.5% Core CPI (y/y) - Survey: 0.9%   Actual: 1.0%   Prior: 0.8% CPI Core Index SA:          Actual: 222.587           Prior: 219.179 Consumer Price Index NSA:   Survey: 220.176     Actual: 220.223        Prior:   219.179 Jobless Claims:  Survey:  400K    Actual: 410K   Prior: 383K    Revised:  K    Continuing Claims:  Survey: 3893K    Actual:  3911K    Prior: 3888K  Revised: K

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.17.2011 Posted: 17 Feb 2011 05:35 AM PST Good Morning: The Yen took center stage in overnight trading-as speculation that the unrest in the Middle East will continue and spread throughout the region-thus the demand for safer assets will grow.  The nervousness through the Middle East was further increased today-as reports that Iranian warships on their way to Syria are looking to pass through the Suez Canal.  Currencies that are perceived as safe havens will be the winners in the near future-until geopolitical issues calm down. Demonstrations for the 3rd day in Bahrain escalated with protesters demanding the ouster of the Prime Minister, and demanding a taste of democracy.  Demonstrations also continued in Yemen and Libya. The GBP was also stronger as comments from BOE member Andrew Sentance that interest rates should rise in the near end. World equity markets were lower-as are US Futures. Jan 2011 CPI prints at .4% , and jobless claims increased by 25K. Oil:$84.88                                                   Gold:$1379.80                       TIME FOR EST.     PRIOR   REVISED  8:30A.M. CPI MoM JAN. 0.30% 0.50% 0.40% 8:30A.M. CPI EX FOOD & ENERGY MoM JAN. 0.10% 0.10% 8:30A.M. CPI YoY       JAN, 1.60% 1.50% 8:30A.M. CPI EX FOOD & ENERGY YoY JAN. 0.90% 0.80% 8:30A.M. CPI CORE INDEX SA JAN.     222.I87 8:30A.M. CPI NSA JAN. 22O.176     2I9.I79     222.2IO 8:30A.M. INIITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS FEB.12   400K      383K 8:30A.M. CONTINUING CLAIMS      FEB.5 3859K     3888K 9:45A.M. BLOOMBERG ECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS  FEB. 9:45A.M. BLOOMBERG CONSUMER COMFORT FEB.13         ‘-46.O 10:00A.M. MORTGAGE DELINQUENCIES  4Q 9.13% 10:00A.M. MBA MORTGAGE FORECLOSURES  4Q 4.39% 10:00A.M. LEADING INDICATORS      JAN. 0.30% 1.00% 10:00A.M. PHILADELPHIA FED.        FEB.        21.O        19.3O   HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Initial Claims rise more. CPI a touch higher Posted: 17 Feb 2011 05:34 AM PST Initial Claims moved to 410 vs expectations of 400k. Last week, the number came in at 383k (revised to 385k) but it was influenced by weather.  CPI rose by 0.4% vs 0.3%, The ex food and energy came in at 0.2% vs 0.1%.  YoY came in at 1.6% and 1.0% for ex food and energy Canada sales rose 0.8%. The dollar initial surged higher but has since come back down. The EURUSD remains contained by the 200 hour MA above and the 100 day MA on the downside. Looking for a break.

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