Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD just not sure. Stays in limbo
• Chicago Fed Number Comes Out Weaker
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary for July 25th is available for viewing
• US Chicago Fed National Activity Data Due at 8:30AM
• ECB’s Costa
• UK BBA mortgage approvals (June) 31.7K; slightly better than the 31.3K forecast.
• Italian consumer confidence indicator (July) 103.7 vs 104.5 prior.
• According to Irish finance minister, the government will stick to its proposed budget target.
• Moody’s downgrades Greece to Ca from Caa1
• The Week Ahead from FXDD
• 7-25 Calender
• EURUSD keeps a bullish bias in early trading
• Japan Finance Minister Noda says will take resolute action in currency market

EURUSD just not sure. Stays in limbo Posted: 25 Jul 2011 05:56 AM PDT The early trading in NY show the EURUSD apprehension to tip a hand one way or the other. The 5 minute chart shows this apprehension. THe 100 and 200 bar MA are a few pips from each other (1.4369 and 1.4374 currently). There is a floor it seems around the 1.4359 level. ON the topside 1.4390, 1.4403 and 1.4415 are levels to watch. The midpoint of the two day range (Friday and Monday) comes in at the 1.43803 level. When the markets are up and down like they are today, it is because the market does not know. Traders need to realize this and play ranges patiently. If buying at support does not work, get out. If selling against resistance does not work, get out. If selling on a break of support does not work, get out. If buying on a break of resistance does not work, get out. Risk a little. Be patient for clues. For example, look for a break of support or resistance to have a pull back to the break level. This would be a clue that there is more interest by the market in the break. Look for an extension and continuation of the break. If good trade location is found, target the hurdles along the way -even if those levels are 8-12 pips away. The steps may seem insignificant, but in the non-trending range the market is in, that is what traders rely on. Taking steps – even if they are baby steps – give confidence to either the bulls or the bears. Then the market makes a break and the range gets extended. Looking at the hourly chart for the EURUSD, the trend to the upside over the last week, has broken outside the range on the back of the sideways market (i.e., it is not really a break and momentum move to the downside). The price has been able to hold support against the 38.2% of the move up from Tuesday. That level comes in at the 1.43225 level.

Chicago Fed Number Comes Out Weaker Posted: 25 Jul 2011 05:30 AM PDT Chicago Fed Natl Activity:  Survey: -0.40   Actual: -0.46  Prior: -0.37  Revised: -0.55

The NY Morning Forex Commentary for July 25th is available for viewing Posted: 25 Jul 2011 04:59 AM PDT

US Chicago Fed National Activity Data Due at 8:30AM Posted: 25 Jul 2011 04:02 AM PDT

ECB’s Costa Posted: 25 Jul 2011 01:49 AM PDT Portuguese economy needs significant adjustment. Target payment system is operating normally, interruption has been resolved. Sovereign risk deterioration in Portugal led to financial system risk deterioration. EU members showed great difficulty in producing robust response to crisis. ECB liquidity is emergency measure, not sustainable for long period. Portugal financing system has to guarantee regular and adequate financing. Economic government needs to be created for Eurozone.

UK BBA mortgage approvals (June) 31.7K; slightly better than the 31.3K forecast. Posted: 25 Jul 2011 01:33 AM PDT

Italian consumer confidence indicator (July) 103.7 vs 104.5 prior. Posted: 25 Jul 2011 01:05 AM PDT

According to Irish finance minister, the government will stick to its proposed budget target. Posted: 25 Jul 2011 12:34 AM PDT

Moody’s downgrades Greece to Ca from Caa1 Posted: 24 Jul 2011 10:06 PM PDT Moody’s comments that no other Eurozone member’s fiscal problems are nearly as big as Greece’s.

The Week Ahead from FXDD Posted: 24 Jul 2011 09:22 PM PDT

7-25 Calender Posted: 24 Jul 2011 08:31 PM PDT

EURUSD keeps a bullish bias in early trading Posted: 24 Jul 2011 04:11 PM PDT The 1.43106 level is the 100 day MA and will be eyed this week.  Staying above, keeps the bulls fully in charge. A move below and the bias shifts. Looking at the intraday chart below, the move up from Thursdays low (1.41385), held the 38.2% retracement on Friday at the 1.43227 level.  The move off that retracement level is another bullish confirmation for those traders long. In the early trading today, the price has move higher initially but has since come back down.  The move down, tested the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (blue line in the chart below) and found some early buyers.  If the price can stay above this level, look for a rotation back higher.  A move below and corrective momentum down should materialize with a move to the low from Friday at 1.4322 and the 100 day MA at 1.4310 the next targets.  This will test the bulls.

Japan Finance Minister Noda says will take resolute action in currency market Posted: 24 Jul 2011 03:34 PM PDT The comments were made over the weekend during a speak in Hiroshima. The USDJPY has been falling and closed the NY week near the lows. In today’s trade, the price has openend and moved lower toward the bottom of the hourly channel.  The price has rotated back higher however, but will still need to climb above the 78.45 level (lows from July 12 and July 14th) in order give the bulls something to feel a little confident.  A move above the top channel trendline and the 38.2% retracement near the 78.575 level will be needed to give bulls even more confidence.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Weekly Forex Wrap show July 22 2011 Rebroadcast
• Week Ahead in Forex – Monday July 22 2011 at 9:30AM
• The FXDD Weekend Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• The USDCAD reached the target at the 0.9528 level and reverses
• GBPUSD setting up a bull flag break?

Weekly Forex Wrap show July 22 2011 Rebroadcast Posted: 22 Jul 2011 02:25 PM PDT Weekly Forex Wrap show with Greg Michalowski Chief Currency Analyst & Forex Trainer Shawn Powell TODAY at 12:30PM edt – Rebroadcast

Week Ahead in Forex – Monday July 22 2011 at 9:30AM Posted: 22 Jul 2011 01:03 PM PDT Week Ahead in Forex – Monday July 22 2011 at 9:30AM- Register now

The FXDD Weekend Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 22 Jul 2011 12:58 PM PDT In the weekend commentary, I take a look at the EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, USDCAD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD. Take a moment to set up your charts so you are aware and prepared for the new forex trading week. Also be sure to sign up for our FREE webinars by going to www.fxdd.com/webinars. The Trader Education webinar on Tuesday at 4 PM ET, will be on “Managing your Trade”. To Register go to: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/719190552

The USDCAD reached the target at the 0.9528 level and reverses Posted: 22 Jul 2011 08:36 AM PDT The USDCAD moved above the 100 hour MA and 38.2% retracement and this move did in fact lead to a the price going to the next target at the 0.95281 level (as per the prior post). The peak level corresponded with the 50% of the move down from the July 18th high to the low (week range). The price has rotated back lower and the price has moved back below the 100 hour MA at 0.9499 currently. This turns the bias back lower for the pair.  Traders will be looking for the price to remain below the 0.9503 level now. A move back above will likely lead to non trending range trading for the rest of the day.  A move below the 0.9489 will be eyed for confirmation of lower levels (see chart below).

GBPUSD setting up a bull flag break? Posted: 22 Jul 2011 08:31 AM PDT The GBPUSD moved sharply up yesterday and has corrected less than 38.2% of the move up (low came in at the 1.6263 level which is above the 1.6254 Fibo retracement level).  The price is now looking to test the top end of what is a flag on the hourly chart at the 1.6321 level. A move above this top trendline should open the door for further upside momentum as the bull flag buyers enter. The high at the 1.6337 level becomes a confirming level to get through on a break.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Mirror Trader training class Wednesday July 27 1:00PM Eastern Time Zone
• EURUSD heads back toward the 1.4360-69 resistance area
• As expected, the Senate does not pass Cut, Cap and Balance proposal
• Fitch says not unrealistic expectations for Greece to be in selective default for only a few days
• Boehner says not close to an agreement
• EU Barnier comments that Greek debt plan only sustainable if economy grows
• EURUSD moves toward target support at the 1.4316-22 area.
• USDCAD moves above the 100 hour MA and 38.2% retracment
• Gold bounces higher as safe haven bid returns
• EURUSD continues the move lower as EU doubts enter
• Austrian Finance Minister says EFSF not to become a bad bank
• USDCAD falls to days midpoint on better Retail Sales
• Canada Retail Sales Data Improves
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary for July 22nd is available for viewing
• Canada Retail Sales Data Due at 8:30

Mirror Trader training class Wednesday July 27 1:00PM Eastern Time Zone Posted: 22 Jul 2011 07:40 AM PDT We'd like to invite you to spend an hour with Ophir Schultz, Tradency Regional Manager and FXDD's Forex Trainer Shawn Powell for a free, interactive webinar highlighting the features and functionalities of FXDD Mirror Trader. This is your opportunity to learn how to employ the FXDD Mirror Trader tools and strategies from a Tradency expert, as well as ask questions. With FXDD Mirror Trader, you can evaluate over 1,500 trading strategies developed by Forex traders and create personalized portfolio of those you wish to follow. Once you have created your portfolio, FXDD Mirror Trader will automatically execute the trades for your selected strategies. Key Discussion Topics: • Detailed review of FXDD Mirror Trader features and tools • Tips on evaluating and choosing a trading strategy based on your goals and risk appetite • Developing a goal of building a balanced and diversified portfolio • Class finishes with a live participant Question & Answer session Space is limited, so click here to register https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/799333153 We look forward to seeing you on Wednesday July 27, 2011 at 1pm EDT.

EURUSD heads back toward the 1.4360-69 resistance area Posted: 22 Jul 2011 07:39 AM PDT Support held against the trendline and 38.2 retracement level and the market has reversed and moved back higher. The price is now up testing the resistance area outlined in the earlier posts today at the 1.4360-69 area. The area remains a resistance level and also has the 38.2% of the move down from the high to the low today at the 1.4367 level.    Profit takers from the dip buyers may be happy to exit at the level, but should the price move above the 1.4369 level, the trend higher should continue.  The EURUSD is behaving nicely from a technical perspective today.

As expected, the Senate does not pass Cut, Cap and Balance proposal Posted: 22 Jul 2011 07:38 AM PDT Back to the drawing board.

Fitch says not unrealistic expectations for Greece to be in selective default for only a few days Posted: 22 Jul 2011 07:24 AM PDT The new rating will likely be B or CCC. Greece is currently CCC by Fitch. They are Caa1 by Moody’s and CCC by S&P. Below is the risk characterists of each

Boehner says not close to an agreement Posted: 22 Jul 2011 07:20 AM PDT The republicans have sent the Cut, Cap and Balance measure for Senate approval and it is up to them. Of course, that vote will be rejected this morning. He says they should send it back to the House with their changes.  So the finger pointing continues. He said it will be a hot weekend in Washington. This is in reference to the 100 degree temperature and the increase pressure/temperature to come to a solution.  And the soap opera continues.

EU Barnier comments that Greek debt plan only sustainable if economy grows Posted: 22 Jul 2011 07:17 AM PDT This is the fly in the anointment. Is good money being thrown at a bad situation. Will Greece be able to privatize their economy and build an economy that is sustainable in the face of austerity measures that should slow growth. The good news is the burden of higher interest costs are not a problem anymore. The bad news is that rates were low in the past and look where it got them.  So is there a hope for growth and a sustainable economy? That is open for debate.

EURUSD moves toward target support at the 1.4316-22 area. Posted: 22 Jul 2011 06:56 AM PDT The EURUSD correction off the original lows, held the target resistance at the 1.4360-69 area (see chart below) and the price has continued its NY trend lower (see prior post). The price is now down testing the support at the 38.2% of the move up from yesterday’s low to the high today at the 1.43226 level. Trendline support (see chart above) also comes in at the area (1.4316).  There should be some profit taking buying at the defined risk area (1.4316-23), with a move below this support leading to some additional stop selling. On a break the next target would look toward the 1.4287 level (50% of the move up from yesterdays low – see hourly chart above). The 38.2% of the weeks move higher in the EURUSD comes in at the 1.42748 level. This would also be a target level, should the selling continue in the pair today.

USDCAD moves above the 100 hour MA and 38.2% retracment Posted: 22 Jul 2011 06:49 AM PDT The USDCAD is moving above the key resistance at the  0.9503 level.  Momentum should materialize above this level as both the 38.2% and 100 hour MA come in at the level.  The next target is the 0.9528 for the pair.

Gold bounces higher as safe haven bid returns Posted: 22 Jul 2011 06:37 AM PDT Gold is back above the 1600 level after finding support at the 38.2% of the move up from the July 12th low earlier today (at 1583.28 – see chart above). The move higher has seen the price move back above the $1600 level and above the high from yesterday (but just barely so far). The high for the week remains an upside target at the $1609.79 area.  On the downside, the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above) is support. That level comes in at the   $1596.13 level currently. Closer support also comes in at the upside trendline in the 5 minute chart below at the 1598 area. The week overall has been a consolidation week for the precious metal with two way up and down action. The consolidation allowed the 100 and 200 hour MA to catch up to the price (see chart above).  The price did fall throuugh the 200 hour MA (greenline in the chart above) for an hour or so today, but the 38.2% retracement was not far away and the price found the buyers – forcing that price back above the 200 MA line. This was a nice bottom for the pair and the market agreed.   The EU news is pretty much all out. The US news is yet to be complete but the expectation would likely be a disappointment.  So with the consolidation over, it would seem the upside is the favored directional bias.  Nevertheless, paying attention to the technicals are always encouraged as owners of Gold do tend to be central banks and they are spending a lot of money lately. So define risk. Keep risk to your minimum and trade your plan.

EURUSD continues the move lower as EU doubts enter Posted: 22 Jul 2011 06:07 AM PDT The EURUSD is trading at the session low, falling through the 1.4360 level which held support for much of the US afternoon session yesterday. The  pair is targeting the 38.2% retracement of the move up from yesterday’s low to the high today. That level comes in at the 1.43226. The trendline which led the market higher for the 1st part of the week comes in at the 1.4516 level.  On the topside, the close resistance comes in now at 1.4360-69.  Staying below these levels, should worry the buyers for the week, who may be inclined to take profit before the weekend. The price has moved lower on the back of doubts coming out of the EU.  There are reports that the bond price gains seen over the last few days will not last.  Will it work. Will there be enough growth needed to heal the economies of the fragile.  It may also be that the news is all out, so the trade is over.  Of course, a currency pair takes two to tango and the other half is the USD. WIth Washington lawmakers continuing to fumble the ball, this keeps the door open for dollar selling. As a result, I will continue to watch the technicals for clues and for stops on the trade bias (as per above) and also would expect that should the targets be met, that there should be traders covering.

Austrian Finance Minister says EFSF not to become a bad bank Posted: 22 Jul 2011 05:55 AM PDT The Austrian Finance Minister is on the wires saying the EFSF will not become a bad bank who parks the bad debt.  However, it is one thing to say it. Reality is another thing.    The purpose of the EFSF is to buy bonds that are being sold in the secondary market. For example, if there is liquidation in Italian Bonds, the EFSF could come in to support the market. It would be the equivalent of currency intervention (which typically does not work).  The problem with this idea is that often the bond selling is a result of creditors not being able to hold the paper of debt issuers who’s credit rating is being cut. That is, covenants within an insurance company may say they cannot hold bonds that are junk status. So, buying of the bonds by the fund could in effect do little to stop the decline. In essence, the EFSF would be the holder or bank who does in fact park the bad debt.

USDCAD falls to days midpoint on better Retail Sales Posted: 22 Jul 2011 05:39 AM PDT Canada Retail sales were better than expected and the price quickly moved to the midpoint of the days range. So from an economic standpoint we had much lower inflation and now higher growth. The BOC this week implied this week that they would look to take out the stimulus (i.e. tighten) as a result of expectations of a stronger 2H growth. WIth inflation down and retail sales picking up, i would think that this would keep the CAD supported (selling of the USDCAD on rallies). The hourly chart below shows the key level on the topside which held the move higher today off the CPI data.  The 0.9503 level has both the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the July 18th high to the low and the 100 hour MA at the same area.  Staying below this level should keep the bulls under wraps. If the price moves above this key technical level, I would be more cautious as it suggest the market may be too short already and Friday square ups may lead to further upside momentum.

Canada Retail Sales Data Improves Posted: 22 Jul 2011 05:33 AM PDT Canada Retail Sales:  Survey: -0.3%  Actual:  0.1%   Prior:  0.3% Canada Retail Sales:  Survey: 0.3%  Actual:  0.5%   Prior:  0.0%

The NY Morning Forex Commentary for July 22nd is available for viewing Posted: 22 Jul 2011 05:16 AM PDT

Canada Retail Sales Data Due at 8:30 Posted: 22 Jul 2011 05:08 AM PDT

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Greek Talks Said to Focus on Default Lasting a Few Days
• US Philadelphia Fed & Housing Index Data Due at 10AM
• EURUSD moves above, tests and moves back above 100 day MA
• NZDUSD breaks to new 30 year highs
• US Jobless Claims Stay Above 400K For 15th Straight Week
• EURUSD moves higher on healing hope
• NY Morning Forex Commentary for July 21st 2011
• EU says EFSF loans for bank recapitalization are being discussed
• US Jobless Claims Data Due at 8:30AM
• Eurozone finance minister says Trichet has accepted selective default.
• EUR/USD testing 100 hour moving average
• Swiss ZEW -58.9 vs. -24.3 prior reading.
• Juncker says selective default for Greece is a possibility
• UK Public sector net borrowing (June) 12.0 bln vs. 10.4 bln expected.
• Eurozone current account (May) -5.2 bln vs. -5.1 bln prior reading.

Greek Talks Said to Focus on Default Lasting a Few Days Posted: 21 Jul 2011 06:57 AM PDT

US Philadelphia Fed & Housing Index Data Due at 10AM Posted: 21 Jul 2011 06:29 AM PDT

EURUSD moves above, tests and moves back above 100 day MA Posted: 21 Jul 2011 06:15 AM PDT The surge higher on the expectation that the plan for Greece will calm fears not only in Greece (and others like Portugal and Ireland) but also to other nations that may get in trouble (through loans from the EFSF). The move higher has taken the price above the 100 day MA at the 1.4301 level.  The first move took the price to a high of 1.4321, corrected to 1.4301  level and has moved to a new high at the 1.4328.  The US situation has not helped any with reports that the S&P could lower US rating as soon as mid August to AA from AAA.

NZDUSD breaks to new 30 year highs Posted: 21 Jul 2011 05:57 AM PDT The risk on trade is on and the NZDUSD has moved to new 30 year highs. The price has reached a trendline on the hourly chart going back to the end of June. The level comes in at the 0.8608 level.    The surge to the upside took out closer resistance at the 0.8587 level and this will now be support for the pair.  A move back below this level will be needed by any sellers looking sell a top.  In a trend move like the NZDUSD tops can be sold but only against resistance levels like the 0.8608 level.  However, if the price level is broken, the trader should close the position out. Trends are fast and directional and trading against them is dangerous.  Watcht the 0.8587 level on a correction.

US Jobless Claims Stay Above 400K For 15th Straight Week Posted: 21 Jul 2011 05:32 AM PDT Jobless Claims:  Survey: 410K  Actual: 418K  Prior: 405K  Revised: 408K Continuing Claims:  Survey: 3705K  Actual: 3698K  Prior: 3727K  Revised: 3748K EUR/USD Trading higher on the news.

EURUSD moves higher on healing hope Posted: 21 Jul 2011 05:29 AM PDT The EURUSD has shot up on the expectation that the bailout package will save the day in the EU. There have been draft proposals on the newswires. The thought is the EFSF will be able to recapitalize the Greek banks through direct loans to government. THis would include countries other Greece, Ireland and Portugal. The EFSF will also be able to intervene in the debt markets on a precautionary basis. The loans will carry a rate of 3.5% from the EFSF. This rate is agreesive and would allow for countries like Greece to recapitalize. The EURUSD is back above all trendline resistance (see hourly chart below). The support line comes in at the 1.4237 currently. On the top side the price is looking to test the 100 day MA at 1.4301 (see daily chart below).  The high has reached 1.4298 and has come off.   The move higher has taken the price above the 38.2% of the move down from the May high to the low. That level comes in at the 1.42577 level.   A move below this level will be needed to confirm the 100 day MA resistance above is the high (again – it was the high last week too).  I would expect to see buyers on the dips.

NY Morning Forex Commentary for July 21st 2011 Posted: 21 Jul 2011 05:16 AM PDT

EU says EFSF loans for bank recapitalization are being discussed Posted: 21 Jul 2011 04:41 AM PDT

US Jobless Claims Data Due at 8:30AM Posted: 21 Jul 2011 04:12 AM PDT

Eurozone finance minister says Trichet has accepted selective default. Posted: 21 Jul 2011 03:16 AM PDT

EUR/USD testing 100 hour moving average Posted: 21 Jul 2011 03:04 AM PDT After reaching a high of 1.42895 the EUR/USD has sold off in recent trade following worse than expected PMI data out of Germany and France in addition to poor Eurozone current account (-5.2B). There were also comments on Greece tonight; most notably from EU’s Juncker who stated that selective default is a possibility for the country. Bullish trendline support had been developing for the pair over the last 2 days until it broke lower with the current candlestick. In the past hour the pair has sold off nearly 80 pips and is currently testing support from the 100 hour moving average which currently comes in at 1.41484. If selling continues we look to 1.41346, a support level from yesterday, as our next downside target.

Swiss ZEW -58.9 vs. -24.3 prior reading. Posted: 21 Jul 2011 02:07 AM PDT

Juncker says selective default for Greece is a possibility Posted: 21 Jul 2011 02:04 AM PDT Eur/Usd falls below 1.4200 on news.

UK Public sector net borrowing (June) 12.0 bln vs. 10.4 bln expected. Posted: 21 Jul 2011 01:32 AM PDT

Eurozone current account (May) -5.2 bln vs. -5.1 bln prior reading. Posted: 21 Jul 2011 01:01 AM PDT

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• ECBs Bini Smaghi says Greek restructuring would be a disaster
• Market rumor of a sub 50 China PMI tonight
• Think tank report talks of EFSF increase to buy Greece bonds
• US Exisiting Home Sales Fall
• Report out that EU has a political will for a solution. The financial details are not
• GBPUSD looks toward the 100 hour MA at 1.6110
• EURUSD pushes to new NY lows.
• FXStreet Webinar at 11:00 AM ET. Trading Forex in a minefield of fundamental influences
• EURUSD testing intraday levels in early NY trade
• Fitch says disorderly Greek default to lead to severe volatility
• Canada Wholesale Sales Improve
• NY Morning Forex Commentary for July 20 2011
• German spokesman says private sector involvement is an important factor
• Canada Wholesale Saleles Data Due at 8:30AM
• EU’s Barroso

ECBs Bini Smaghi says Greek restructuring would be a disaster Posted: 20 Jul 2011 07:15 AM PDT He adds that governments should bury their private sector involvement plans.  Any form of restructuring would be more expensive than aid.  He says that EFSD should be able to purchase bonds

Market rumor of a sub 50 China PMI tonight Posted: 20 Jul 2011 07:14 AM PDT

Think tank report talks of EFSF increase to buy Greece bonds Posted: 20 Jul 2011 07:10 AM PDT This is in contrast to the earlier report (just minutes ago) suggesting that the results will be more political versus financial at this point.  The report is purely a thought but it has helped the EURUSD move back toward that 1.4200 level in the pair.

US Exisiting Home Sales Fall Posted: 20 Jul 2011 07:01 AM PDT Existing Home Sales: Survey: 4.90M    Actual: 4.77M  Prior: 4.81M   Existing Home Sales (MoM):  Survey: 1.9%   Actual: -0.8%   Prior: -3.8%   June  vs May 2011  Northeast:  .730 vs .770  Midwest: 1.040 vs 1.030  South: 1.860 vs 1.850   West:  1.140 vs 1.160

Report out that EU has a political will for a solution. The financial details are not Posted: 20 Jul 2011 06:55 AM PDT There is report out of the EU that there is a political will, but details of any solution remain to be worked out.  This has sent the EURUSD down at the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart and the 61.8% of the days trading range at teh 1.4173. Staying below the 1.4200 level remains the topside resistance. Exisiting home sales due out at 10 AM with expectaions of 4.9m units. The months supply of homes on the market came in at 9.3 months last month.  This was up from the low of 7.5 months in January 2011 and the highest level this year.

GBPUSD looks toward the 100 hour MA at 1.6110 Posted: 20 Jul 2011 06:53 AM PDT The GBPUSD moved closer to the 100 hour MA at the 1.6110 level. The price low has reached the 1.6116. Earlier today the price moved higher on the back of less dovish MPC meeting minutes.  THe topside has trendline resistance at the 1.6147 level.     On a break of the 100 hour MA, the trendline support off the low from July 18th comes in at the 1.6076 level.

EURUSD pushes to new NY lows. Posted: 20 Jul 2011 06:38 AM PDT The 1.4184 is the the trendline that held yesterday and pushed above today.  This is a target that is being tested. The other level to eye below is the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart currently at the 1.4175.  A move below this level next targets thte 1.4154 level. Traders who are short from above, will likely want to see the price stay below the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (close level) at the 1.4192 level. Above that the 38.2% of the move up today comes in at 1.4198.  In general, staying below the 1.4200 level would be ok with intra day shorts.

FXStreet Webinar at 11:00 AM ET. Trading Forex in a minefield of fundamental influences Posted: 20 Jul 2011 06:31 AM PDT The current trading environment is full of fundamental influences that make trading in the minefield of news downright dangerous. How do you as a retail trader, maneuver through the risk and uncertainty inherent in the current forex market from global events. Greg Michalowski, Chief Currency analyst at FXDD and author of Attacking Currency Trends (www.attackingcurrencytrends.com Wiley March 2011) will outline how he approaches the current market environment filled with risk, risk, risk. TO REGISTER GO TO: http://www.fxstreet.com/webinars/sessions/session.aspx?id=ff14281e-c498-4285-aa59-17e2fd0492a9

EURUSD testing intraday levels in early NY trade Posted: 20 Jul 2011 05:55 AM PDT The EURUSD is feeling out the NY traders bias and so far there are no winners. The support levels on the intraday chart are holding and so is resistance.   Trendline above is at the 1.4221 level. The trendline below comes in at the 1.4198 where the 38.2% is also located. The first look at the level has found quick profit taking buyers.  Comments from EU officials could cause a reaction one way or the other today (as could US government comments). So be aware. Be prepared.

Fitch says disorderly Greek default to lead to severe volatility Posted: 20 Jul 2011 05:50 AM PDT They add a Greek resolution is neccesary but does not prevent a threat

Canada Wholesale Sales Improve Posted: 20 Jul 2011 05:38 AM PDT Wholesale Sales(MoM%):   Survey: 0.1%   Actual: 1.9%   Prior: -0.1% May 2011 vs April 2011 Canada:   $47,617 vs $46,736 Inventory/Sales:  1.17 vs 1.20 Seales ex autos: $39,952 vs $38,957 Newfoundland and Labrador:  $319 vs $337  Nova Scotia:  $619 vs $630 New Brunswick:  $503 vs $495 Quebec: $9,167 vs $9,004 Ontario: $24,006 vs $23,775 Manitoba: $1,177 vs $1,169 Saskatchewan: $1,702 vs $1,586 Alberta:  $5,721 vs $5,492 British Columbia:  $4,286 vs $4,131

NY Morning Forex Commentary for July 20 2011 Posted: 20 Jul 2011 05:29 AM PDT

German spokesman says private sector involvement is an important factor Posted: 20 Jul 2011 04:59 AM PDT France’s Sarkozy and Germany’s Merkel are to meet before the EU meeting tomorrow that is designed to outline  a plan for Greece.

Canada Wholesale Saleles Data Due at 8:30AM Posted: 20 Jul 2011 04:52 AM PDT

EU’s Barroso Posted: 20 Jul 2011 03:50 AM PDT Situation is “very serious” and requires a response. Minimum that must be done on Thursday is provide assurances on sustainability on Greek public finances. Negative consequences will be felt in all corners of Europe and beyond if solution is not found. Now is the time for member states to make good on their commitments. With goodwill on all sides we can have a solution.

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