Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• USDJPY breaks higher before the weekend
• Week Ahead in Trading Webinar this Monday at 9:30 AM
• EURUSD moves back lower and looks toward the 1.3459-71 support area
• Gold moves closer to support levels
• AUD/USD Backs Off Support, Continued Bearish Bias
• IMF Lagarde says economic risks are piling up
• The EURUSD has bounced on market chatter
• Talk of a French “TARP” making the rounds (unconfirmed).
• Gold remains pressured

USDJPY breaks higher before the weekend Posted: 23 Sep 2011 11:54 AM PDT The USDJPY has broken higher and trades at the high for the day. The price move to the upside started on the break of the 100 hour moving average, then trendline resistance and most recently the 200 hour MA at the 76.60 level. The next target in the progression is the 38.2% retracement at the 76.77 level.  Above that the 76.97 level

Week Ahead in Trading Webinar this Monday at 9:30 AM Posted: 23 Sep 2011 11:29 AM PDT Week Ahead in Trading Webinar this Monday at 9:30 AM with Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell- Register now

EURUSD moves back lower and looks toward the 1.3459-71 support area Posted: 23 Sep 2011 09:39 AM PDT The EURUSD held the 38.2% retracement at the 1.3541 area and rotated back down. True to form the technical traders used the level to take profit and since then, the price has rotated lower and lower and lower. The price is now back below the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.3496 level and looks toward the next support level which is between the 1.3459-71 area.   I would expect that traders looking to ease into the weekend will look to buy against this level and call it a week.

Gold moves closer to support levels Posted: 23 Sep 2011 09:00 AM PDT   Gold has continued it’s slide and moves closer to support at the 1.647-1649 area.  Bottom trendline support ($1649) and 61.8% Fibo support ($1647) of the move up from the July 1st low provides the support. Below those levels is the key 100 day MA at the $1637 area.

AUD/USD Backs Off Support, Continued Bearish Bias Posted: 23 Sep 2011 08:05 AM PDT AUD/USD (daily chart) as of Friday (9/23/2011) has backed off key support around the 0.9700 price region after having broken swiftly and strongly below prior key support around parity (1.0000). Friday’s price action rose up above 0.9800 from its half-year lows just below 0.9700. This pullback occurs after a precipitous 1100 pip drop that started in the beginning of September. After such a plummet, a bullish correction pullback is to be expected, with strong resistance now residing around the parity region. Overall, however, the directional bias continues to be strongly to the downside in line with the steep bearish trend that currently prevails. A re-breakdown below 0.9700 should target further immediate downside around the 0.9550 price region, and then the key 0.9400 support/resistance level, which is also the 161.8% Fibonacci extension of the last major bullish correction. (Click on chart to enlarge. Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics 14,3,3 on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average (SMA) in orange; 100-period SMA in brown; 200-period SMA in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.) James Chen, CTA, CMT Director of Technical Research and Education FXDD

IMF Lagarde says economic risks are piling up Posted: 23 Sep 2011 07:55 AM PDT World leaders need to act now and need to act together to deal with economy Inflation is anchored. Monetary policy should be accomodative Central Banks may have to delve into unconventional policy waters

The EURUSD has bounced on market chatter Posted: 23 Sep 2011 07:44 AM PDT The EURUSD is back above the 1.3500-04 resistance area on chatter about French bank relief via a TARP like program.  The reaction in a market that seems to be focused on “not getting hurt on a Friday”, has been to cover shorts now and ask questions later.  Now  the technicians (risk definers) may look to use the dips to buy once again (with 1.3500) to be watched below.  The NY high has come in at the 1.3522 level. This is the next hurdle if the squeeze continues. The 38.2% of the weeks range comes in at the 1.3541 level. Both are plain to see and what will give technicians satisfaction on positions.  I get the feeling that traders are keeping positions close, looking not to get burned.  On moves they should also be quick to exit on signs of resistance or support holding.  Risk aversion is the order of the days trade.

Talk of a French “TARP” making the rounds (unconfirmed). Posted: 23 Sep 2011 07:34 AM PDT

Gold remains pressured Posted: 23 Sep 2011 07:33 AM PDT Gold remains pressured. Talk that a large hedge fund is liquidating long positions, has the precious metal offered. The price is now below the key $1700 level which was the 50% of the move up from the July low at 1477.88.  The next key longer term support level comes in at the $1647 level which is the 61.8% of the same move and channel trendline support.  Looking at the hourly chart the $1700 level is also a resistance level on it.  On the downside support at the $1669 level (channel Trendline) should find profit taking buyers.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• USDCHF rotating down. Trendline support at 0.9019.
• UK Chancellor Osborne is also commenting
• German Finance minister Schaeuble: Europe on right path to reduce deficits
• ECB Weidman says economic situation is better than the mood
• German Finance Minister: May need to revise the 2nd Greek bailout
• The EURUSD will now eye support at 1.34717 area
• GBPUSD bounces after failed break lower
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.23,2011
• EURUSD borders defined
• EURUSD bounces off the support. Test resistance now.
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary for September 23rd 2011
• EURUSD pressured lower as NY enters
• British Bankers Association mortgage approvals up 35,226 in August
• SNB says it is ready to purchase unlimited currencies in its quartely report
• Greek fin. minister told law makers sees three scenarios: messy default, implementation of July 21 deal, or orderly default with 50% haircut.

USDCHF rotating down. Trendline support at 0.9019. Posted: 23 Sep 2011 06:54 AM PDT The USDCHF failed yesterday on the break above channel trendline. The failure led to a decline to the bottom trendline support. The price his moving back dwon toward support at the 0.9019 trendline. A move below would open the door for further declines with the 0.8676 level (38.2% retracement as the next target support).  The 100 hour MA and shallower trendline at the 0.8948 and 0.8934 are other downside targets.  On the topside a move above the  0.9067 and then 0.9080 would be needed to worry shorts. The 0.9067 is the 38.2% of the move up from Wednesdays low (see chart below). The 0.9080 area is a ceiling from today’s trade.

UK Chancellor Osborne is also commenting Posted: 23 Sep 2011 06:45 AM PDT Says: IMF quite right on recapitalization needs (200 billion as per Lagarde) EFSF firepower may not be adequate There is an awareness of the need to recapitaliz

German Finance minister Schaeuble: Europe on right path to reduce deficits Posted: 23 Sep 2011 06:43 AM PDT G20 welcomed July decision to increase EFSF. Urged quick implementation Does not make sense to speculate about additional Greek decisions Recapitalizations of European banks is not a matter for the ECB but the EU members

ECB Weidman says economic situation is better than the mood Posted: 23 Sep 2011 06:38 AM PDT Does not expect Germany to return to recession German stimuus wont help Eurozone much Does not want to speculate on what ECB could do or talk default Ecb has shown in the past  that it is prepared to provide banks with long term liquidity

German Finance Minister: May need to revise the 2nd Greek bailout Posted: 23 Sep 2011 06:31 AM PDT This has the EURUSD moving toward the 1.34717 support level.

The EURUSD will now eye support at 1.34717 area Posted: 23 Sep 2011 06:19 AM PDT The EURUSD bounced hard off support and the move above the close at 1.3459,  the 1.34717 level (38.2% of the days range,  and move to test the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart above has been impressive.  Now, traders will look for the 1.34717 level to hold support and for a move to above the 1.3500-04 level to squeeze more shorts.    It is Friday.   Anything can happen. Stocks are lower on opening. If stocks can erase some losses.  The technical levels are there for support and defining risk.

GBPUSD bounces after failed break lower Posted: 23 Sep 2011 06:08 AM PDT The GBPUSD failed on a break lower in early NY trade and the price moved higher. IT is now testing (well above) the first resistance area with 1.5444 level. The next target would be the high for the day and above that key resistance against the 1.54868 which is the 50% midpoint of the move up from the May 2010 low to the high (see chart below).

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.23,2011 Posted: 23 Sep 2011 05:53 AM PDT Good Morning: The overnight session continued to be voiltile after European equities started the day higher-then gave up those gains and then more. The Euro also showed some strength early on, but those gains were also given up. European banks are one of the main catalyst for the sell off in the equity markets for the past few days, as investors look to see the status of their balance sheets. Moody’s downgraded long-term deposit and senior debt rating of eight Greek banks-I guess  that took nobody by surprise. The G-20 pledged a “strong and coordinated” response to the weak global economy-but that only raised an eyebrow or 2 before it was forgotten. Oil dropped under $80/barrel and Gold is under $1700/oz presently. With the global economies in turmoil-lots of talk that we are in or going into a double-dip recession  are all reasons for the global sell off. Until the markets see some tangible monetary policies implemented, the turmoil will continue. HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

EURUSD borders defined Posted: 23 Sep 2011 05:48 AM PDT The 1.3459 level is the close from yesterday. The 1.34717 is the 38.2% of the days range.  On the downside the 1.3407-20 is support from the 50% of the move up from June 2010 low and the support area from yesterday. A move outside will be needed to spur on further action.  1.3500 area  is the 100 and 200 bar MA on chart above and target for the pair.

EURUSD bounces off the support. Test resistance now. Posted: 23 Sep 2011 05:30 AM PDT The EURUSD bounced off the support (see prior post) at the 1.3407-20 area (the low came in at 1.3418) and is now up testing the close from yesterday at 1.3459 and  above that the 1.3471 level.  The 38.2% of the move down from the daily trade comes in at 1.3472 currently.  A move above these levels opens up the window for further gains in the pair.  A move back below the close from yesterday at 1.3459 will be needed to rotate the price back lower. Decision time for the pair.

The NY Morning Forex Commentary for September 23rd 2011 Posted: 23 Sep 2011 05:13 AM PDT

EURUSD pressured lower as NY enters Posted: 23 Sep 2011 04:33 AM PDT The EURUSD squeezed higher in the Asian session and tried again in the early phases of the London session but has moved back lower in the last few hours of trading. Greece bank downgrades, comments about Greek default, comments that European bank are underestimating the writedown on Greek bonds by as much as 21%. Finland is balking about EFSF flexibility, and rumblings about political reluctance in Greece to go through with austerity. From a technical perspective, the price is below the close from yesterday which came in at the 1.3459 level.  This and the 1.3471 level will be the first upside resistance levels that the bears/shorts will want to see the price stay below.  Above that the 1.3490 level will be eyed (38.2% of the days range).  ON the downside 1.3420, 1.3407 which is the 50% of the Long term move up from the June 2010 low is also a key level. No economic data today.

British Bankers Association mortgage approvals up 35,226 in August Posted: 23 Sep 2011 01:37 AM PDT This beats the 33,200 rise that was expected. Gbp/Usd is just of session highs, trading at 1.5460.

SNB says it is ready to purchase unlimited currencies in its quartely report Posted: 23 Sep 2011 12:42 AM PDT * it will enforce franc cap with “utmost determination” * cap will help fight risk of deflationary development * franc still high, should continue to weaken * Swiss growth will come to a halt in 2nd half

Greek fin. minister told law makers sees three scenarios: messy default, implementation of July 21 deal, or orderly default with 50% haircut. Posted: 22 Sep 2011 11:00 PM PDT

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Midpoint of 2010 low to 2011 high at 1.34077
• IMF Lagarde says sees narrower path for recovery
• USDCHF corrects to 100/200 bar area
• Dow down -322. Oil down -$4.20. S&P -31
• EURUSD squeezed higher. 1.3473-78 upside target now
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.22, 2011
• Charting the Majors with James Chen – Webinar STARTING SOON at 9:30 AM U.S. ET
• Fed is going to cut the rate of FX swap lines to Europe: Market chatter.
• The EURUSD makes new lows continued risk liquidation
• S&P getting closer to key support at $1100
• US Leading Indicators & House Price Index Data To Be Released at 10AM
• Canada Retail Sales Drop to -0.6 vs Prior of 0.7%, USD/CAD Stronger on the News
• US Jobless Claims Continue The Weak Trend
• Jobless not so hot. Canada Retail Sales not so hot either…selling risk
• Jobless Claims Data Due at 8:30AM

Midpoint of 2010 low to 2011 high at 1.34077 Posted: 22 Sep 2011 07:00 AM PDT Watch level for support.

IMF Lagarde says sees narrower path for recovery Posted: 22 Sep 2011 06:51 AM PDT US could accomodate more short term growth

USDCHF corrects to 100/200 bar area Posted: 22 Sep 2011 06:50 AM PDT

Dow down -322. Oil down -$4.20. S&P -31 Posted: 22 Sep 2011 06:45 AM PDT

EURUSD squeezed higher. 1.3473-78 upside target now Posted: 22 Sep 2011 06:34 AM PDT There was a report that the Fed may cut the rate of FX swap lines to Europe which the market interpreted as dollar bearish (or perhaps it was looking for an excuse to move higher?). In any case, the price moved higher and is testing the high for NY, the 50% of the most recent leg lower and the trendline off the high from yesterday at the 1.3473-78 area. A break above this level opens another door for more breathing room to the upside.   On the downside, the 1.3408 level is the 50% retracement of the move up from the June 2010 low. That level will likely spur on profit taking buyers should the price move toward it again.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.22, 2011 Posted: 22 Sep 2011 06:11 AM PDT Good Morning: Yesterday’s comments by the Fed added to the sell off in equity markets and commodity markets worldwide. “Operation Twist”, which is the name that the Fed has placed on it’s newest initiative to stimulate the economy did nothing to ease the nervous markets. The new program will have the Fed buying longer maturity Treasuries, while selling an equal amount of short term Treasuries. The Fed reiterated their pledge to keep interest rates at record lows through the middle of 2013.   As the US economy is not being hurt by high interest rates-this initiative may do very little to help the ailing economy. In the Euro Zone-the latest data is showing continued weakness across the board.  I think that the ERB will need to re think their recent increase in interest rates, and now that ECB President Trichet is on his way out of office-the new President. Mario Draghi may be forced to possibly reverse that decision.   The USD was the benefactor of the Fed’s “inaction” yesterday, as the greenback rose, as all other instruments took a beating. World wide equity markets are lower-and US Futures are down over 270 points at this time-indicating a lower opening when the Dow opens at 9:30 AM. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Charting the Majors with James Chen – Webinar STARTING SOON at 9:30 AM U.S. ET Posted: 22 Sep 2011 06:10 AM PDT Please join us today (Thursday, September 22) at 9:30 AM U.S. ET for FXDD’s Charting the Majors with James Chen. This free webinar will feature the current technical outlook on the major currency pairs in an interactive and educational session. Please click here to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/213872497 .

Fed is going to cut the rate of FX swap lines to Europe: Market chatter. Posted: 22 Sep 2011 06:09 AM PDT Unconfirmed.

The EURUSD makes new lows continued risk liquidation Posted: 22 Sep 2011 05:54 AM PDT The EURUSD has resumed the decline after testing the 38.2% of the last move lower (see 1.34786 level). The fall lower has moved the pair back into the downside channel (1.3414) .  Stay below this line and the downside still dominant. The pair continues to suffer on weak growth/risk liquidation. This has spurred on the dollar buying. The last time the price was at these level was in Mid January 2011. The price was trending to the upside. Below is the hourly chart from that period (using the 100 hour MA as support – blue line). The levels of significant at the time were 1.3395, 1.3356 and below that 1.3244.

S&P getting closer to key support at $1100 Posted: 22 Sep 2011 05:47 AM PDT As risk gets hit, the stock market is approaching a key level. The 38.2% of the S&P index comes in at the 1101.73 level and the low from August 9th tested this level and bounced. The consolidation seen since that time is bear flagging.  A break lower would likely lead to panic selling.  Traders may look to buy against the support with stops below. However, be aware. Be prepared. A break should lead to further selling of the risk pairs in currencies.

US Leading Indicators & House Price Index Data To Be Released at 10AM Posted: 22 Sep 2011 05:44 AM PDT

Canada Retail Sales Drop to -0.6 vs Prior of 0.7%, USD/CAD Stronger on the News Posted: 22 Sep 2011 05:34 AM PDT

US Jobless Claims Continue The Weak Trend Posted: 22 Sep 2011 05:32 AM PDT Jobless Claims:  Survey: 420K  Actual: 423K  Prior: 428K  Revised: 432K Continuing Claims:  Survey: 3722K  Actual: 3727K  Prior: 3726K  Revisad: 3755K

Jobless not so hot. Canada Retail Sales not so hot either…selling risk Posted: 22 Sep 2011 05:32 AM PDT ON a day where global growth is a concern, these numbers are not all that great. Commodities getting hit today. Gold is below the 38.2% retracement of the move up from June low at the $1751.56 level. The next key target for the pair is the $1700 area Copper is getting attention as it is down sharply and tests November low (futures) and 61.8% of the move up from June 2010 low.

Jobless Claims Data Due at 8:30AM Posted: 22 Sep 2011 05:23 AM PDT

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD pushes to 100 hour MA and 38.2% retracement
• NY Morning Commentary_A look at the FOMC Decision
• Forex Fast Track Workshop- Phoenix Arizona, Saturday October 15, 2011
• US Existing Home Sales Rise Over 5 Million
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.21,2011
• Meanwhile RBNZ Bollard says NZ is overvalued
• RBA Battellino say optimistic weakness in EU and US will not make it into Australia
• IMF estimates bank risk exposure increased by 300 bln Euro due to debt crisis
• Ask the Chartist with James Chen – STARTING SOON at 10:00 AM ET
• Market talk that ECB is buying Italian bonds
• BOE Dale says inflation to move above 5% but fall materially next year
• US Exisiting Home Sales Data Due at 10AM
• Canadian CPI (m/m) 0.3% vs 0.1% forecast and 0.2% prior.
• German deputy finance minister says EFSF won big majority in Committee.
• Sterling lower after meeting minutes

EURUSD pushes to 100 hour MA and 38.2% retracement Posted: 21 Sep 2011 08:06 AM PDT

NY Morning Commentary_A look at the FOMC Decision Posted: 21 Sep 2011 07:41 AM PDT

Forex Fast Track Workshop- Phoenix Arizona, Saturday October 15, 2011 Posted: 21 Sep 2011 07:40 AM PDT   Get on the FXDD Fast Track* with your Forex Trading – Live one day workshop, Saturday October 15, 2011 Learn from two highly respected industry professionals with years of real world financial and Forex trading experience, James Chen, CMT and FXDD's Director of Technical Analysis & Client Education, Author of "Essentials of Technical Analysis for Financial Markets" (Wiley May 2010)and Greg Michalowski, FXDD's Chief Currency Analyst, Author of "Attacking the Currency Trends" (Wiley, April 2011) How Fast Track works: •Day 1 – Webinars:  Developing a Trading Professional's Mindset •Day 2 – Webinars: Trade Basics – New Techniques for Entry & Exit •Day 3 – FAST TRACK LIVE Event – Full Day of Forex Training with James Chen & Greg Michalowski (includes: continental breakfast, completion certificate & cocktail reception) The Fast Track workshop will begin with an interactive three-hour webinar session on Wednesday, October 12th and one on Thursday, October 13th. The webinars will take place at 6 PM EDT each day.  These sessions will be recorded and will be available free for Fast Track attendees. On Saturday, October 15th, James Chen, Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell will be in Phoenix to conclude the series with a full day of in-person training at the Scottsdale Marriott at McDowell Mountains. What you will get when you reserve your seat: Two days of Online Education A Full Day of Live Training with FXDD's James Chen and Greg Michalowski Hands on, intensive learning environment  Beautiful Hotel and Surrounding area Continental Breakfast Certificate of Completion Closing Cocktail Reception Fourteen hours of Forex training by two industry professionals with years of experience coming to your home town.  This type of opportunity does not come every day, so act now.  Scottsdale Marriott at McDowell MountainsThe live portion of Fast Track is Saturday October 15, 2011 from 8am-6pm The beautiful Scottsdale Marriott, Arizona resort hotel adjacent to TPC Scottsdale and 36 holes of championship golf.  Spacious resort accommodations in Scottsdale, AZ overlooking the breathtaking McDowell Mountains. Local Airport: PHX Phoenix Sky Harbor, AZ.  16770 North Perimeter Drive · Scottsdale, Arizona 85260 USA   Learn from two of the best During the sessions, both James and Greg will take you on a detailed journey based on their own trading methodologies and strategies.  Included will be: How best to approach trading the Forex market What trading tools to use (and ones you shouldn't) How best to define risk, how to limit risk, and how to accept risk How to enter, manage and exit positions effectively and efficiently How to control your fear so you can trade with confidence  Get the real scoop on both James and Greg's methods for trading A total of fourteen hours of forex training by two industry experts with over 50 years of experience coming to your home town.  This type of opportunity does not come every day.  It is time to act. So what does it cost? FXDD is making a commitment toward providing better and more meaningful trading education to their clients.  We want you to succeed.  Although this course could cost thousands of dollars elsewhere – and likely be taught by smooth talking trainers with a fraction of the experience – FXDD is offering the 14-hours of training with James and Greg for just $399.  To make the offer even more enticing, FXDD will take part of your investment and deposit $200 directly into your FXDD trading account after graduation on Saturday*   That's right, Fourteen hours of expert training at an exceptionally low cost to you If you would like to register or should have any questions, feel free to contact Shawn Powell, the FXDD Fast Track coordinator at 1 212.791.3933 x7187 or email him at spowell@fxdd.com .  The event is limited in the number of students so please act early to ensure your spot in the class. Testimonials: “James Chen’s book is the perfect source of knowledge for those who haven’t ever traded currencies. Clearly explained, Chen’s easy to read style show that he knows what professional currency trading is, focusing on the important aspects that every trader should know. The book covers all important Forex trading related topics.” (fxstreet.com, March 11, 2009) "For Greg Michalowski, the familiar acronym "KISS" does not stand for "Keep it simple, stupid," but rather "Keep it simple for success." And success is precisely what Michalowski aims to deliver to readers. "Attacking Currency Trends" is a readable and straightforward text for any trader regardless of market preference. The subtitle hints at the Forex focus of the book, but the author's ideas and trading philosophies apply to any tradable vehicle." (SFO Magazine August 1, 2011) _____________________________________________________________________________________ *The following terms and conditions apply: New and Existing Clients:  The cost of attending the FXDD Fast track Phoenix event on October 12-15 2011 is $399.00.  The fee is non refundable and will cover the entry fee for one (1) individual participant.   A portion of the event fee ($200) will be credited to the participant's live trading account as a trading bonus.  To receive the trading bonus, the participant must have a live account with FXDD within 30 days of attending the event on October 15, 2011. In the event that the live portion of Fast Track is cancelled, FXDD will refund all paying participants the full registration fee of $399.  FXDD is not responsible for other participant expenses, including but not limited to hotel, airfare or other fees associated with travel to and from the event.     The one (1) time $200 trading bonus is for trading purposes only and may not be withdrawn.  If the account is inactive and/or unfunded for 30 days, FXDD reserves the right to reclaim the $200 trading bonus or the remaining lesser balance in the account.   All profits made from the credit must remain in the account for 90 days before being withdrawn. NOTE: FXDD is compensated through the bid/ask spread. Your costs may be more than the bonus deposit. FXDD reserves the right to change or amend the terms and conditions at any time. All funds in USD.  All rights reserved, FXDD, LLC © 2011

US Existing Home Sales Rise Over 5 Million Posted: 21 Sep 2011 07:00 AM PDT Existing Home Sales: Survey: 4.75M    Actual: 5.03M  Prior: 4.67M   Existing Home Sales (MoM):  Survey: 1.7%   Actual: 7.7%   Prior: -3.5%    Aug vs July 2011 (Measured in Millions)  Northeast:  0.770 vs 0.750  Midwest: 1.090 vs 1.050  South:  1.940 vs 1.840  West: 1.230 vs 1.040

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Sept.21,2011 Posted: 21 Sep 2011 06:28 AM PDT Good Morning: I have returned from the 1st Saudi Money Expo, that was held in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.  It  was a very interesting and informative expo, and the hosts from KSA were most gracious.  I look forward to continued business opportunities in the Kingdom. The markets are all awaiting this afternoon’s FOMC announcement  at  2:15 PM.  What the Fed has in their back pocket, as their options are very limited at this time, is anyone’s guess.  We will see what they come up with!  Markets participants will be looking to see if the Fed takes an aggressive monetary easing position.  Will the Fed be focused now on the long end, after always concentrating on the short end? The Fed needs to lower all rates  if it really wants to stimulate lending.  We will wait and see-as it is just a few hours aways. In other international news-the UN General Assembly is meeting in New York this week.  President Obama will address the session this morning.  The President will apparently try to push for the Palestinians to drop their bid for statehood-as he tries to get both the Israeli’s and Palestinians back to direct peace talks.  The administration feels that there is no shortcut fot statehood with the Palestinians, and that both parties must first make peace before a true state could be established. European equity markets are lower-and US Futres are mixed.  The S&P is slightly lower-while Dow futures are slightly higher. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUICK

Meanwhile RBNZ Bollard says NZ is overvalued Posted: 21 Sep 2011 06:23 AM PDT But he sees a need to push rates up….. Bollard expects GDP to be soft but positive HMMM. >One statement points to lower NZDUSD the other a higher NZDUSD.  The NSDUSD has moved a little lower on the headline. Trendline support at the 0.8180

RBA Battellino say optimistic weakness in EU and US will not make it into Australia Posted: 21 Sep 2011 06:22 AM PDT China can continue to grow despite US Consumer has been surprising strong Retailers not reporting more significant weakening Wait and see to see if spending falls Rate cuts are based on pessimistic assessment of the economy. RBA will keep an open mind on policy until clearer global picture emerges The comments are more positive and has led to a move higher.

IMF estimates bank risk exposure increased by 300 bln Euro due to debt crisis Posted: 21 Sep 2011 06:09 AM PDT The number includes decline in bank asset prices and rise in funding costs They note that they have not calculated capital needs of European banks.  That would require a full fledged stress test (which was done in the summer but which seems obsolete now). Damage could spread to banks in emergin economies. Estimates could reduce balance sheet by 6% for banks Banks should seek private capital but public funds may be needed for the viable banks They add that a coherent strategy is needed to prevent contagion and to strengthen financial systems in advance economies

Ask the Chartist with James Chen – STARTING SOON at 10:00 AM ET Posted: 21 Sep 2011 06:03 AM PDT Please join us today (Wednesday, September 21) at 10:00 AM ET for FXDD’s Ask the Chartist with James Chen. This free webinar will feature answers to questions from the audience regarding forex trading, technical analysis, and trading strategies. Please click here to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/310782769 .

Market talk that ECB is buying Italian bonds Posted: 21 Sep 2011 05:53 AM PDT This is unsubstantiated chatter. but the EURUSD has been moving off the lows of the day and tests the 38.2% of the days trading range at the 1.36637 level.

BOE Dale says inflation to move above 5% but fall materially next year Posted: 21 Sep 2011 05:53 AM PDT Fall will ease pressue on UK spending Recovery in consumer spending will be gradual

US Exisiting Home Sales Data Due at 10AM Posted: 21 Sep 2011 04:33 AM PDT

Canadian CPI (m/m) 0.3% vs 0.1% forecast and 0.2% prior. Posted: 21 Sep 2011 04:03 AM PDT Core CPI (m/m) 0.4% vs. 0.1% survey and 0.2% prior.

German deputy finance minister says EFSF won big majority in Committee. Posted: 21 Sep 2011 03:32 AM PDT

Sterling lower after meeting minutes Posted: 21 Sep 2011 02:07 AM PDT The UK Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously in September to keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.5%, and the 8-1 to keep asset purchases at 200 billion GBP. In the BOE’s summary of business conditions they commented that the growth rate of nominal spending on goods and services has continued to decline and capacity utilization was normal. Following the release, the GDP declined against all of the major currencies and tested the recent 1.56317 low against the USD making a new session low of 1.56114, but recovered moderately. The market has since quieted down.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• ECB’s Zoellick on the Wires
• S& P says Italy can not solve debt problems by privatization
• USD/CHF Turns Back Up to Target New Highs
• Now SNB spokesperson says they plan no press conference…
• SNB has no comment on peg rumor but will hold press conference/meeting at 11 AM ET
• USDJPY tests 100 hour MA resistance
• Talking Technicals with James Chen – Webinar Today at 12:30 PM U.S. ET
• EURUSD holds above broken trendline at 1.3676 area
• IMF headlines out.
• SRB has issued the first ever warning (European Systemic Risk Board). These comments are apparently old but 1st public release
• SNB “declined to comment” on rumor of new peg for EURCHF
• USDCHF/EURCHF moves sharply higher. Rumor of a new target for EURCHF
• Housing Starts weaker. Building Permits stronger
• EURUSD pushes through 38.2% retracement
• US Housing Starts and Building Permits Data Due at 8:30AM

ECB’s Zoellick on the Wires Posted: 20 Sep 2011 07:29 AM PDT Says: Some countries may not return to competitiveness Doesn’t think China will bail out Europe ‘Ripple effects’ from Europe to other countries Ripple effects affecting developing world, started in August You have to watch out for all types of protectionism

S& P says Italy can not solve debt problems by privatization Posted: 20 Sep 2011 07:10 AM PDT They expect Italy debt costs to rise but it will not shut them out of the debt market Single A rating is still strong

USD/CHF Turns Back Up to Target New Highs Posted: 20 Sep 2011 07:09 AM PDT   USD/CHF (daily chart) as of Tuesday (9/20/2011) has once again risen to re-test key resistance around the 0.8900 price region, a level that was just tested and essentially respected early last week. After last week’s resistance test, price pulled back slightly in its trend-breaking bullishness, to the 0.8645 price region, before turning back up. Now that price has re-tested key resistance, a strong break to the upside, which would continue the bullish breakout momentum and add further confirmation to an overall change in trend for the pair, could go on to target further upside around the 0.9300 resistance region. A turn back to the downside from resistance, which would further strengthen this resistance region, could target strong downside support once again around the 0.8550 price region. (Click on chart to enlarge. Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics 14,3,3 on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average (SMA) in orange; 100-period SMA in brown; 200-period SMA in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.) James Chen, CTA, CMT Director of Technical Research and Education FXDD

Now SNB spokesperson says they plan no press conference… Posted: 20 Sep 2011 07:03 AM PDT

SNB has no comment on peg rumor but will hold press conference/meeting at 11 AM ET Posted: 20 Sep 2011 06:55 AM PDT EURCHF shifts back to the upside.

USDJPY tests 100 hour MA resistance Posted: 20 Sep 2011 06:55 AM PDT The USDJPY has tested the 76.70 level (100 hour MA – blue line)  twice today and each time the price was turned away. The levels importance is increasing and the Bank of Japan would like the currency to weaken (higher USDJPY).

Talking Technicals with James Chen – Webinar Today at 12:30 PM U.S. ET Posted: 20 Sep 2011 06:17 AM PDT Please join us today (Tuesday, Sept 20) at 12:30 PM U.S. ET for FXDD’s Talking Technicals with James Chen. This free webinar will feature a high-probability technical approach to trading in the Forex market. Please click here to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/611865313 .

EURUSD holds above broken trendline at 1.3676 area Posted: 20 Sep 2011 06:13 AM PDT The EURUSD is finding support against the underside of the broken trendline at the 1.3676 currently. On the topside the 100 and 200 hour MA found sellers.  Traders playing the ranges in the uncertain environment.  US weak. EU weak.

IMF headlines out. Posted: 20 Sep 2011 06:04 AM PDT EU growth to 1.6 from 2% in 2011. 2012 growth cut to 1.1 from 1.7% EU must recapitalize banks. ECB should cut interest rates if debt tensions persist Cut most EU growth forecasts on EURO contagion EU should continue to intervene strongly in debt markets They also cut US 2011 growth to 1.5% from 2.5% Cuts US 2012 to 1.8 from 2.7% prior Global economy has entered “dangerous new phase”

SRB has issued the first ever warning (European Systemic Risk Board). These comments are apparently old but 1st public release Posted: 20 Sep 2011 05:59 AM PDT Not sure how to interpret since it apparently is not new.

SNB “declined to comment” on rumor of new peg for EURCHF Posted: 20 Sep 2011 05:51 AM PDT

USDCHF/EURCHF moves sharply higher. Rumor of a new target for EURCHF Posted: 20 Sep 2011 05:40 AM PDT Market talk that the SNB is to move target 1.2500 tomorrow. This is unconfirmed but is what is being talked about in the market. The EURCHF has moved sharply higher to the 1.2139 level.  This is considerably less than the proposed target of 1.2500. This is indicative of the rumor nature of the news. Nevertheless the pair is sharply higher.  I will be watching the 38.2% and 50% retracement levels for clues.  If the market players are on board, these levels should be supported on dips. If the market is skeptical, the price will move below.

Housing Starts weaker. Building Permits stronger Posted: 20 Sep 2011 05:30 AM PDT Housing Starts came in at the 571K vs 590K. Permits rose to 620K vs 590K.  Give or take in this housing data is not really relevant. The numbers are still weak.  The numbers prior to 2008 were as high as 2273K.  So a number at 600 K is at least half of what it should be.  In Canada Leading Indicators came in flat vs 0.2% estimate Wholesale Sales rose 0.8% which was as expected.

EURUSD pushes through 38.2% retracement Posted: 20 Sep 2011 05:14 AM PDT The EURUSD has pushed to new highs and in the process moved above the 38.% of the move down from the September 15th high to low on September 19th. That level comes in at the 1.37195. The next target above is the 100 and 200 hour MA at the 1.3334/13340 area.

US Housing Starts and Building Permits Data Due at 8:30AM Posted: 20 Sep 2011 04:23 AM PDT

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