Thursday, November 24, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

GBPJPY breaks support at 119.56

Posted: 24 Nov 2011 06:48 AM PST

GBPJPY has broken below the 119.56 trendline support on the hourly chart above. Staying below increases the bearish bias for the pair.  Traders will be looking for increased downside momentum.

The next target on the downside comes in at the 119.10-20 area (see daily chart below) where a number of highs and lows were made in September and October (the last time the market price was down at these levels).  I would expect some support buyers against this level.  A break back above the 119.56 should solicit profit taking from the shorts.

Euro stocks trimming gains

Posted: 24 Nov 2011 06:26 AM PST

The FTSE is up only 0.12%.  The CAC and DAX are up about 1% now

EURUSD moves toward channel trend line support

Posted: 24 Nov 2011 05:55 AM PST

The EURUSD has moved to new lows for the trading day (low reached 1.3324). The 1.3319 level was the low from yesterday. The 1.3304 and 1.3307 levels are trendline support on both the hourly and the daily charts (see charts).  Keep these levels in mind as the next key targets for the pair on a new probe to the downside.

On the topside now, the close from yesterday comes in at the 1.3341. This is close resistance for the pair now. A move back above this level could take the pair up to the 1.3354 area. A move above this level, would not be welcomed by the bears.  Look for sellers against this level (Yellow area in the chart below). 

 

Merkel says common interest rates on Eurobonds is the wrong signal

Posted: 24 Nov 2011 05:48 AM PST

  • Adds that Eurobonds would weaken the EU
  • The budget sanctions require the changing of the EU treaty

The Eurozone stocks are losing some gains.

Italy Monti says deficit targets may have to be adjusted to economic cycles

Posted: 24 Nov 2011 05:47 AM PST

Must head toward fiscal union.  He also commented that a EU stability bond could make a significant contribution towards fiscal union.

Germany/Merkel are at odds with regard to the idea of an EU bond. 

The EURUSD trades at new lows for the day.

Merkel stand firmly against a Eurobond

Posted: 24 Nov 2011 05:38 AM PST

Sends the EURUSD back down.  The changes in the treaty seem to be focused on preventative actions rather than radical changes that would include the idea of a Eurobond.   Germany is concerned that such a bond backed by Germany would lead to a downgrade of their AAA rating.  Ironically, yesterday Germany failed in selling the full allotment of 10 year bunds (3.9 billion vs offering of 6 billion).

The EURUSD is trading at the lows for the NY session. The close from yesterday came in at the 1.3341 level which is near the low from the day. Yesterdya the low extended to 1.33199.

EURUSD up on the day but trading at midpoint

Posted: 24 Nov 2011 05:26 AM PST

The EURUSD has moved higher from the close yesterday (at 1.3341). The price high came in at 1.3410 and currently trades at the midpoint of the days range at 1.3375.  The pair has moved a bit higher in the last few minutes on comments from Sarkozy that they are determined to support Italy and that France, Germany and Italy will announce a proposal for modification of the EU treaty.  The details are sketchy but likely to include having an EU finance minister of overseas fiscal issues.  He does comment that they will not make demands on the ECB.  The proposal for modifying the treaties will be made before December 9th.

From a technical perspective the price moved higher from the start, but fell short of the 38.2% retracement at the 1.3414 level and recent lows at 1.3420 (see chart). The price is trading around the midpoint of the days range.

The midpoint comes in at the 1.3375 level.

Sarkozy says France and Germany are determined to help Italy

Posted: 24 Nov 2011 05:20 AM PST

  • France and Germany to make joint proposal to modify EU treaty.
  • Agreed with Monti and Merkel to not make demands on the ECB
  • Monti will be associated with the EU treaty proposals

The EURUSD has moved modestly higher on the comments

Overview of overnight events/releases

Posted: 24 Nov 2011 05:08 AM PST

US Holiday today (Thanksgiving)

Stock futures at highs for the day
France Cac Index 1.48%
German Dax 1.6%
UK FTSE up 1.92%

ECB examining term in which it offers front month liquidity.

Portugal downgraded by Fitch to junk status (to BB+ from BBB-) with a negative outlook.  The rating agency cited high indebtedness across all sectors and adverse macroeconomic outlook.

Germany IFO Business CLimate rose to 106.6 from 106.4 (expected 105.2)

JP Morgan sees EURUSD at 1.3000 by March 2012 vs 1.3800 previous estimate

Posted: 24 Nov 2011 04:56 AM PST

But sees the EURUSD by 1.3800 by the end of 2012

For what it is worth.

China sovereign wealth fund CIC may aid Europe through investments.

Posted: 24 Nov 2011 03:29 AM PST

Fitch cut Portugals rating ffrom BBB- to BB+.

Posted: 24 Nov 2011 03:01 AM PST

  • Sees Portugal GDP contracting by 3% in 2012.
  • Sees them meeting deficit target of 5.9% this year.
  • Debt rising to about 110% of GDP by the end of 2011.

RBA’s Stevens

Posted: 24 Nov 2011 01:39 AM PST

  • Policy change is a judgement call given the uncertainty of forecasts
  • Policy should not be rigidly and mechanically linked to inflation forecasts.
  • Without large shocks to the economy, inflation has a good chance of being 2-3% in 2012.
  • Current inflation forecast is subject to uncertainties and many variables.

UK GDP (Q3) 0.5% as expected.

Posted: 24 Nov 2011 01:30 AM PST

Total business investment was -1.4%, worse than the 11.6% prior release and Index of services was 0.1%.

IFO’s Abberger

Posted: 24 Nov 2011 01:23 AM PST

  • Start of Christmas shopping went well for retailers.
  • Debt crisis has not reached real economy in Germany yet.
  • Further ECB interest rate cut of 25 basis points would be appropriate, after that we need to wait for further economic development.
  • Germany has a good change to avoid a recession this winter.

 

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

The USDJPY is above 100 day MA. Taking steps higher

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 07:17 AM PST

The USDJPY has moved above the 100 day MA at the 77.30 level.  Moving above this level is positive for the pair.   The 77.539 is the next target. Traders have been disappointed before in this pair but the move higher today has been more steady. It started by holding the 100 hour MA and has progressed step by step higher.  Nevertheless, it is important to define risk. Risk comes in at 77.21 which is the 38.2% of hte move higher today (see chart below). 

On the hourly chart today, the price held above the 100 hour MA, then had nice buying above the 200 hour MA.  The 38.2% of the move down from the November high comes in at the 77.213 level.  It broke through this level.  The 50%  comes in at the 77.41.  This is another target to the upside if this  progression is to continue.

Moody’s says unlikely to see a US rating change in 2012: Moody’s analyst

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 07:11 AM PST

Michigan comes in at 64.1 vs 64.5 last

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 06:56 AM PST

Economic expectations rose to 77.6 from 76.6
Economic Outlook came in at 55.4 vs 56.2.

IMF says Germany drops Gold reserves for the 1st time since Dec 2010

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 06:45 AM PST

Gold has been moving down over the last 8 or so days of trading. The price has moved from the 1796 level to a low reached at 1666.23 yesteday. The price did rebound toward the 100 hour MA and 38.2% of the move down at the 1715 area (in the Far East session), but found sellers against the level (at 1710).

EURUSD tests 38.2% of the last leg down at 1.34129

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 06:43 AM PST

The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 05:56 AM PST

Durable Goods mixed with headline down, ex trans up. Initial claims remain below 400k

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 05:33 AM PST

The Personal income and spending showed stronger income at 0.4% but weaker than expected spending at 0.1%. This increases the savings rate which rose to 3.5% from 3.3%.

Regarding the Durables report, Non defense orders ex aircraft fell the most since January 2011. This is an indication of business equipment demand cooling.

Jobless Claims & Personal Spending Weaker, Durable Goods Orders & Personal Income Improve

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 05:32 AM PST

Jobless Claims:  Survey:  390K    Actual: 393K   Prior: 388K    Revised:  391K   

Continuing Claims:  Survey: 3621K    Actual:  3691K    Prior: 3608K  Revised: 3623K

Durable Goods Orders:   Survey: -1.2%    Actual: -0.7%    Prior: -0.8%  

Durables Ex Transportation:   Survey: 0.0%   Actual:  0.7%   Prior:  1.7%   Revised:  0.6%

Personal Income:   Survey: 0.3%     Actual:  0.4%    Prior:  0.1%   

Personal Spending:   Survey: 0.3%    Actual: 0.1%  Prior: 0.6% 

PCE Deflator:    Survey: 2.7%  Actual:  2.7%   Prior: 2.9%

PCE Core(MoM):     Survey: 0.1%   Actual:  0.1%    Prior: 0.0% 

PCE Core(YoY):    Survey:  1.7%   Actual:  1.7%   Prior:  1.6%

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-November.23.2011

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 05:30 AM PST

Good Morning:

The GBP dropped to it’s weakest level in 6 weeks-after minutes of the last Bank of England meeting showed that many members of the committee feel the need for an increase in the ongoing stimulus program.
In further news from the Euro Zone-the Euro fell to a 6 week low against the USD as data suggests that the sovereign debt crisis that is plaguing the region will directly effect growth within Europe.
Fitch rating have stated that the continued debt crisis  now facing France-may have a negative impact on their AAA rating.  With the latest increase in French government debt-their ability to absorb any fresh “shocks” will be difficult to control.

World equity markets are lower-as are US Futures.

Oil, Gold, and silver are all lower also.

I want to wish everyone (who celebrates this holiday) a HAPPY THANKSGIVING.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

The Morning Forex Report will come out after the US data today

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 05:28 AM PST

Some technical difficulties in compiling today are being fixed. 

  • Intial Claims are expected at 390 vs 388K. They have been staying below the 400k level in recent weeks
  • Durable Goods are expected to show a 1.2% decline. Durables can be volatile due to transportation orders. Ex Transportation, the number is expected to be flat
  • Personal income and spending are both expected to show a 0.3% gain.

Greek Samaras sends letter to EU and IMF leaders

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 05:09 AM PST

This was a required condition for the receiving of the 6th tranche of aid.

He says that emphasis should be on fast economic recovery.

ECB Constancio says German bond auction results do not raise concern

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 04:42 AM PST

Germany today received insufficient bids for their auction of 10 year bunds. The pundits are terming the auction as the worst in Germany’s history.  This raises investors fears for the Eurozone debt funding capabilities.  After all,  if the safe haven country (Germany) can not gather enough interest in their auction, what about the others like Spain and Italy? 

Investors bid 3.889 billion for an offering of 6 billion euros at an average yield of 1.98%.  The failed auction has led to a yield advance to back over 2% for the 10 year bund (the current yield is at 2.06%).  On November 1st the low close in yield for the on-the-run 10 year bund came in at 1.768% (closing basis).

The auction results have helped presssure the EURUSD in London trading today. The pair has moved below the low over the last 5 days of non-trending range trading (break out at 1.3420). 

The next target for the pair comes in at the 1.3360-77 area where lows from September and October are found. The low for September came in at 1.3144. The low for the year of 2011 came in at 1.2873 (back in January) .

S&P’s Beers says on the newswires that upward pressure on yields in Germany is quite telling.  Might begin to change perceptions in the market.  While the German finance ministery spokesperson says the bond auction is no indication of problems with refinancing.

Italy is scheduled to have 183 day bill auction on Friday. They are also looking to sell up to 750 million of 2023 bonds.  The market will be watching the results of their auction for clues as to overall investment demand.

8:30AM US Economic Data

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 04:33 AM PST

Fitch says France’s AAA status continues to be underpinned by a high value added and diverse economy

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 04:30 AM PST

  • REcent adoption of fiscal measures enhances the credibility of the consolidation program from the government.
  • Additional measures are still likely to be necessary if 3% GDP target is to be met
  • THey add that French banks do not need capital injection

Fitch revises Turkey’s outlook to stable; Affirms BB+ rating

Posted: 23 Nov 2011 04:15 AM PST

The USDTRY has been trending to the upside as a move away from risk has led to the sharp move higher into the dollar and out of the more risky economies like Turkey.

The intraday moves are upward but choppy

Tuesday, November 22, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

USDCHF above and below 200 hour MA

Posted: 22 Nov 2011 07:24 AM PST

The USDCHF fell below the 200 hour MA and 38.2% retracement earlier in the London session, rebounded above level on the dollar rally in the early NY session but is now back testing the level.  The market has a decision to make at the level. Does it want to go higher or lower.

Richmond Fed comes in at 0 better than expected at -2

Posted: 22 Nov 2011 06:59 AM PST

Shipments 1 vs -6 last month
New Orders -2 vs -5 last month
Order Backlog -10 vs -15 last month
Cap Utilization -6 vs -4 last month
Vendor Lead time 5 vs 2 last month
Number of Employees 0 vs -7 last month
Avg Workweek 0 vs -1 last month
Wages 10 vs 5 last month

EURUSD pushes against 100 bar MA in choppy trade

Posted: 22 Nov 2011 06:48 AM PST

The sharp decline to the NY lows, could not be sustained and the price has rebounded back to the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (at 1.3527 area) . The 1.3506 level where the 200 bar MA (green line) and 61.8% are found was a level that accelerated selling on the downside and accelerated the buying on the move back higher.  This level will continue to be eyed as a point where action should occur (either support or a break through).

On the hourly chart below the upward sloping trendline in the chart below held support last week until yesterday when the price fell below.  Since that time, the line has divided the bulls and bears.  That level comes in at 1.3527 currently. A move above is likely to solicit more buying. Staying below could keep a lid with a check of the 1.3506 the intraday value to eye.

The markets are non trending and subject to illiquid trading conditions as the NY Thanksgiving holiday approaches. So trade accordingly.  Patience. Stops defined. Two way action.  Fall in like with the market. Don’t fall in love with the market. Level to level.  If you are a longer term trader, choose your bias and be ready for back and forth action

Italian PM Monti says does nt confirm 2013 balance budget goal

Posted: 22 Nov 2011 06:27 AM PST

Meanwhile EU Barroso says Italy needs to pursue efforts to regain confidence of the markets

EURUSD breaks below 100 hour MA. Will momentum continue?

Posted: 22 Nov 2011 05:58 AM PST

The EURUSD rotated back lower post the GDP data. The price is now below the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above) at the 1.3497 level.  Earlier, the price tried to rally above the 200 hour MA but failed when it reached the 38.2% of the move down from the November 11th high.  Will the momentum develop below the 100 hour MA now?

Traders wll be watching the retracement. On the 5 minute trader shorter term traders will likely be eyeing the 1.35064 area. This level corresponds with the 61.8% of the days trading range. The 200 bar MA on the chart is also at the level. If the sharp move down is to continue today, traders will be watching for sellers against the 1.3497 to 1.35064 area.  Staying below is good for bears. A move above takes some of the steam out of the markets decline with 1.3518 to 1.3525 the next correction point. Yesterday the day closed at 1.3488.   

 

Canada Retail Sales better than expected

Posted: 22 Nov 2011 05:44 AM PST

The headline Retail Sales increased 1 %.  Ex Autos +0.5%. Both better than expectations (0.5% and 0.4% expectations).

Cars rose by 2.8% MoM
Food and Beverages increased by 0.2% MoM
Gasoline increased by 0.8% MoM
General Merchandise increased by 0.7% MoM

Despite the better than expected number the USDCAD found support on the dip and has extended the days range to the upside. The market will be looking for momentum to continue for the pair.

The hourly chart has also extended higher above trendline resistance at the 1.0396 level.  Staying above this level keeps the bulls in charge.

Finally on the daily chart, the next key target comes in at the 1.0446 which is channel resistance for the pair. The bias on it is positive having moved above the 61.8% of the last leg down yesterday, and finding buyers against that area today (at 1.03637)

GDP much weaker than expectations. Inventories the cause.

Posted: 22 Nov 2011 05:33 AM PST

Inventories were revised to down -8.5  from +5.4 in the last cut of the GDP. This subtracted 1.55% for the quarter and when compared to the 3Q advance or -1.08% was the major contributor to the decline.

GDP Annualized = 2%
Personal Consumption +1.63%
Investiment -0.10% (Fixed Investment added 1.45%, Inventories subtracted -1.55% )
Net Exports +0.49
Government -0.02%

Since inventories are down, this likely means that inventories will be replenished in the 4Q.  So what is bad for 3Q is good for the 4Q.  However, the GDP growth is not good overall.

Canada Retail Sales Improve

Posted: 22 Nov 2011 05:31 AM PST

Canada Retail Sales:  Survey: 0.5%  Actual: 1.0%   Prior:  0.5%   Revised: 0.6%

Canada Retail Sales Less Autos:  Survey: 0.4%  Actual: 0.5%   Prior:  0.4%

US GDP Falls to 2.0%

Posted: 22 Nov 2011 05:30 AM PST

(Annualized):   Survey: 2.5%   Actual: 2.0%   Prior: 2.5%  

Personal Consumption:   Survey: 2.4%   Actual: 2.3%   Prior: 2.4%  

GDP Price Index:   Survey: 2.5%   Actual: 2.5%   Prior: 2.5%  

Core PCE QoQ:   Survey: 2.1%   Actual: 2.0%   Prior: 2.1%

USDCAD tests topside again in narrow trading range

Posted: 22 Nov 2011 05:30 AM PST

The range for the day in the USDCAD is very narrow. Looking for an extension today.

Germany’s Merkel says markets are exaggerating differences and problems in Eurozone

Posted: 22 Nov 2011 05:24 AM PST

Other comments:

  • Answer to crisis not sufficient yet
  • ECB could not be bazooka in debt crisis
  • Need to change construction on the Euro area
  • Willingness to cede some national sovereignty is needed
  • Exceptional situations that may arise will need the willingness to take exceptional steps.

Germany’s Merkel Speaks at Conference in Berlin

Posted: 22 Nov 2011 05:22 AM PST

Says

  • There isn’t ‘one solution’ for debt crisis
  • ECB cant be ‘bazooka’ in debt crisis
  • Joint Euro-Area bonds aren’t answer to debt crisis
  • Joing Euro bonds may work at end of political union
  • Closer EU political union needed against crisis
  • EU treaty change needed to regain market confidence
  • Euro is stable, has benefited all members
  • EU Treaty change needed quickly
  • Time of living on borrowed money is ending

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-November.22.2011

Posted: 22 Nov 2011 05:18 AM PST

Good Morning:

France’s 10 year bond demanded a 150+ points premium over German bonds-as Europe’s second largest economy is showing more and more signs of slipping.  France’s current borrowing costs are more than 1% more than the equally AAA rated UK.
Investors are commenting that France is not trading like a AAA credit-as it seems that the marketplace has already downgraded France’s credit.
The credit and debt crisis that started in Greece 2 years ago, and spread it’s wings into Spain,Portugal, Ireland and Italy is now setting it’s sights on France.
 
The major rating agencies reaffirmed the US’s credit grade-and the JPY fell-as this reduced demand for the JPY as a safe haven for investors.
With no end in sight for the European debt crisis-investors will be looking for non euro denominated assets.  With the risk of contagion (and now we see the crisis heading to France), along with rising bond yields-the investment community will be very weary as to what European assets they invest in.

Oil, Silver and Gold are all on the positive side.

World equity markets were mixed-and US Futures are slightly posting positive numbers.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

The NY Morning Forex Commentary for November 22nds 2011

Posted: 22 Nov 2011 05:09 AM PST

US GDP & Canada Retail Sales Data Expected at 8:30AM

Posted: 22 Nov 2011 04:08 AM PST

 

 

Monday, November 21, 2011

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

EURUSD trading between support and resistance

Posted: 21 Nov 2011 07:38 AM PST

The EURUSD is trading between support and resistance for the NY session. The 1.3436 level was a floor from last Thursday trade. Not far below that is the lows from last week at the 1.3421 and 1.3428 levels.  ON the topside, the resistance comes in against the underside of what was trendline support last week.  That support level was broken earlier today. The underside of that trendline comes in at the 1.3484 level. The high for the NY session comes in at 1.3481.

At work today from a fundamental perspective is Washington, Greece/Italy and a sharply lower US stock market at -256 Dow points. Gold is also down $24 today.

US Super Committee debacle

Posted: 21 Nov 2011 07:32 AM PST

There is a report on the AP news wires that if the Super Committee fails in cutting the required 1.2 billion that the next step will be to stop the automatic cuts from going into effect. 

There is a thought that if the debt cuts are blocked, this would lead to a possble downgrade for the US.

The EURUSD has moved higher and trades near the high for the day.  The focus back on the US and specifically Washington, may be the catalyst.

Below is the article from the AP:

http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_DEBT_SUPERCOMMITTEE_AUTOMATIC_CUTS?SITE=TNJAC&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT

The Forex Week Ahead for the November 21st 2011 week

Posted: 21 Nov 2011 06:18 AM PST

Forex Basics Big Picture today at 4:00 PM with Shawn Powell and Jason Galano

Posted: 21 Nov 2011 06:14 AM PST

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Canada Wholesale Sales come in at 0.3% vs 0.5% expectations. Chicago Fed Activity weaker

Posted: 21 Nov 2011 05:32 AM PST

Meanwhile the US CHicago Fed National Activity Index came in at -0.13 vs expectations of 0.19

ECB Stark says very challenging times for governments in EU

Posted: 21 Nov 2011 05:28 AM PST

  • Sovereign debt crisis has spread to so called core countries of all Eurozone
  • Globally see strong headwinds
  • GDP growth is expected to be moderate in H2
  • Sees strong dampening effects for European Q4 GDP
  • Sees soft patch as temporary though
  • Deceleration of inflation rate in 2012
  • Decisive and front loaded action is needed to bolster confidence in government finances across all Eurozone states
  • Ireland is meeting its bailout target
  • Success in Ireland on recapitalization of banks and in bank deleveraging
  • Macroeconomic imbalances are the root of the current debt crisis in Europe

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-November.21.2011

Posted: 21 Nov 2011 05:15 AM PST

Good Morning:

It looks like we start the short Thanksgiving trading week with news that the US Congressional ”super committee” is going to announce that they have failed to agree on any significant cuts in the budget.  With no agreements in place-$1.2 trillion in  automatic spending cuts will start.  These cuts are both for domestic and defense projects-and will be put into place in January 2013.
As typical in current US politics, both the Democrats and Republican’s blamed each other for the inaction.  Even Sen John Kerry of Massachusetts stated that on Monday the markets will look at Washington and say “you guys can’t get the job done”.  I think that he is right-and I would add “again” at the end of his statement.
With no agreement from the “super committee”-will the rating agency’s have more negative news for the US’s rating?

World equity markets are lower-as are US Futures.
Oil,Gold,Silver are all lower.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

 

NY Morning Forex Commentary for November 21st 2011

Posted: 21 Nov 2011 05:06 AM PST

ECB’s Nowotny says interest rate decrease is possible

Posted: 21 Nov 2011 03:11 AM PST

Eur/Usd made fresh session low of 1.3437 on news.

Bundesbank monthly bulletin

Posted: 21 Nov 2011 03:09 AM PST

* cuts 2012 German growth forecast to 0.5%- 1.0%

* German economy entering dangerous waters in coming months

* Euro-zone debt crisis could burden recovery in Europe and trading partners

* urges crisis hit Euro-zone states to take swift and decisive action to restore confidence

Cameron says UK well behind where it needs to be on growth

Posted: 21 Nov 2011 03:04 AM PST

* Euro crisis having chilling effect on growth

* UK unemployment figures were depressing

* dealing with deficit line one of recovery plan

* pressure to be maintained on banks to lend more

* massive credit easing scheme in the works

Eurozone Current Account

Posted: 21 Nov 2011 01:11 AM PST

E/Z Current Account came in with a 0.5B euro surplus, a 3.2B euro deficit was expected.

Eur/Usd continues to trade either side of 1.3450.

11-21 Economic Calendar

Posted: 20 Nov 2011 08:45 PM PST

USDCNH Trendline Still Holding

Posted: 20 Nov 2011 05:33 PM PST

The USDCNH pair has continued lower as its appreciation is defended by the trendline resistance we have been advertising for weeks. A break higher could be met with some resistance at the trending 21 day moving average and 200day above that. Any CNH appreciation could find support at last week’s lows.