Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

IMF Comments to the G-20

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 07:04 AM PST

  • G20 countries can help EU expand size of bailout, and advanced countries’ monetary policy should remain accomodative
  • ECB should expand the balance sheet for banks and debt crisis
  • CNY is appreciating faster than previously, and China needs to continue to allow the CNY to appreciate
  • G20 markets assign low likelihood of Iran-related oil supply disruption, and Iran oil export disruption would push prices up USD 23-30 per BBL.

House Price Index Rises to 1.0%, Pending Home Sales Fall Almost 10%

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 07:01 AM PST

House Price Index(MoM):  Survey:  0.0%   Actual:  1.0%   Prior:  -0.2%  

Pending Home Sales (MoM):    Survey:  -1.0%    Actual:  -3.5%    Prior:   7.3%    

Dec vs. Nov 2011
Seasonally Adjusted(MoM%)
U.S:  -3.5% vs   7.3%
Northeast:  -3.1% vs  8.1%
Midwest:  4.4% vs  3.3%
South:  -2.6% vs 4.3%
West:  -11.0% vs  14.9%

Level Change
U.S:  -3.5 vs 6.8
Northeast:  -2.4 vs 5.8
Midwest: 3.7 vs 2.9 
South:  -2.7 vs 4.3 
West: -13.3 vs 15.7 

Pending Home Sales (YoY):   Actual:  4.4%     Prior:  6.9%

EURUSD eyes resistance at 100 hour MA

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 06:09 AM PST

The EURUSD has resistance at the 1.2968 level (100 hour MA in the chart above – blue line).  Move above and some of the bearishness of the day, starts to fade.  Key level this morning.

USDJPY holds above corrective support (77.92-99) area. Back in channel

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 05:57 AM PST

The USDJPY corrected off the high in early NY trading but held above the days 38.2% -50% retracement area. In a currency pair like the USDJPY, if the price does not rally, it sells off.  So far the price advances are holding.

The key resistance above today is against the high from November at the 78.28 level and then then 200 day MA at 78.33.  Moving above these levels should solicit stop buying and additional upward momentum.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-January.25.2012

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 05:35 AM PST

Good Morning:

Another choppy night of trading as Euro and GBP led the parade.
With better than expected German IFO data-the EUR/USD pair rose to the mid 1.30 range before falling back into the mid 1.29 range.
GBP did worse-as lower than expected Q4 GDP surprised the markets.  With manufacturers cutting production, and the service sector stagnant-is the UK looking at a double-dip recession?  The BOE will be assessing it’s QE program to see if additional stimulus will not only be needed-but will it do anything in reality-only time will tell.
Greece is still negotiating with private bond holders to work out new interest rates for a bond swap.  The prospects are not looking rosy.

Apple Inc blew out Q4 earnings-expected earnings $10.16/share-real earnings $13.87/share.  Apple is now the largest company in the world.  They have jumped over Exxon/Mobil to take the #1 spot.

Last night President Obama gave his “State of the Union” speech.  He called for higher taxes on the rich, and more government spending (I have no idea where this money will come from) for job creation.  It was a very political and partisan speech-pitting Democrats and Republicans against each other.  In my opinion-the fighting between parties has added to the problems in Washington.   

 This afternoon we have the statement from the FOMC-and a news conference By Chairman Bernanke.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

US House Price Index & Pending Home Sales Data Due at 10AM

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 05:32 AM PST

Dollar higher. Test intraday levels however. Bernanke awaited

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 05:22 AM PST

Angela Merkel casts doubt on Greece

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 04:58 AM PST

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jan/25/angela-merkel-greece-financial-meltdown

In an article in the UK’s The Guardian, Germany’s Angela Merkel casts doubt on saving Greece from a financial meltdown.

Dollar advances today. USDJPY continues surge. EURUSD falls below trendline. Bernanke and Fed awaited

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 04:09 AM PST

US Mortgage Applications Fall to -5.0% Frior Prior of 23.1%

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 04:00 AM PST

ECB said to be opposed to taking losses on it’s Greek debt holdings

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 02:51 AM PST

The ECB has been buying up Greek debt as a way to provide liquidity to the banks and save the EU for collapse.  There was a story in the press over the last 24 hours saying the ECB should take the hit and take a haircut on their bond holding too (along with the Private Sector bond holders).  This comment says “no”. They feel they have already been part of the solution to Greece through their purchases. To now take a haircut  would be a bad precedent to make to the market and to EU members.

UK GDP fell 0.2% in Q4, 0.1% decline expected

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 01:34 AM PST

BoE bond-purchase vote 9-0, interest rate vote 9-0 to keep at 275 bln and 0.5% respectively.

Some MPC memberssaid further asset purchases likely.

Gbp/Usd a touch firmer, presently trading at 1.5655.

German Jan. IFO Business Confidence Index rises to 108.3 from prior 107.2

Posted: 25 Jan 2012 01:03 AM PST

Eur/Usd made new high of 1.3050 on news.

1-25 Economic Calendar

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 08:53 PM PST

Possible USD/HKD resistance around 7.7608

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 07:08 PM PST

The pair been trading between 7.7594 and 7.7600 for the last two days, currently testing downward trend line resistance which has been developing since last Friday. Currently there is added resistance at 7.7608 by the 100 hour moving average and the 38.2% line. If there is a close above this level we look to 7.76135 as the next topside target. Failure to close higher should see continued trading in this range.
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Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

EURUSD holds the support trendline on first test.

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 07:08 AM PST

The EURUSD held trendline support on the 1st test on the hourly chart above.  The price has rebounded to resistance on the 5 minute chart agains the underside of an trendline which was resistance, then support and now may be resistance (see chart below).  The other technical note on the chart below is how the 100 and 200 bar MA (blue and green lines) have turned down after converging and flattening.  This should keep the bias to the downside for the pair today. I would look for sellers up to 1.2990 area (38.2% of the weeks range).  Key time for the EURUSD.  We will see if the market agrees with what the technicals are saying at the moment.

IMF Headlines

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 07:04 AM PST

  • Lowers world growth outlook to 3.3% in 2012 from September forecast of 4%.  Sees 3.9% growth in 2013
  • Without action, debt crisis may force 4% Euro-area contraction
  • 2012 recession in Italy of -2.2% and -0.6% in 2013, Spain -1.7% in 2012
  • Maintains US growth forecast at 1.8%, projects 2.2% for 2013
  • Governments avoid responding to any unexpected growth downturn by tightening policies
  • Eurozone set to enter mild recession in 2012 at -0.5% and resume growth at 0.8% in 2012
  • Japan 2012 growth forecast cut to 1.7% from September forecast of 2.3%
  • China 2012 growth forecast cut to 8.2% from September forecast of 9.0%
  • Sovereign financing stress has increased
  • Global finance system remains fragile
  • Important for Euro-funding area instruments to take direct stakes in troubled banks
  • Intensification of European crisis could lead to world-wide recession

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Comes Out Much Higher than Expected

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 06:59 AM PST

Survey: 6, Actual: 12, Previous: 3

AUDUSD tests key support area

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 06:55 AM PST

The 1.0436 is the underside of broken trendline. The 1.0424 is the 38.2% of the consolidative range since July. The 1.0407 is the 200 day MA today.  The AUDUSD has reached a low of 1.0426 and is back above the 1.0436 level currently as traders lean against the key support on the first test.  Should the market rotate back down, a break these levels, it would refute the break to the upside.  Holding the level today, would be bullish for the pair.  Key day today.

On the topside and looking at the hourly chart, the price today fell below the 100 hour MA and the trendline at the same 1.0447 level. This is also a key level for the pair today. Staying below this level is bearish for the pair.  Moving above, is good.

EURJPY pushes against some resistance at 100.88 area

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 06:25 AM PST

USDCAD finds sellers on first test of 38.2% retracement level

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 06:10 AM PST

The USDCAD has moved above the 100 hour MA and moved to test the 38.2% at the 1.0140 level. The 200 hour MA is also in the area at the 1.0145 level.  Traders have used the levels to lean against and take some profits from the sharp move higher. A break above the key levels will likely trigger stops and additional buying.

ON the downside, the 1.0119 level will be eyed as channel support.  Below that 1.0114 is the 38.2% of the trend move higher. If the trend higher has good trader support, keeping the bullish bias above these support levels will be eyed.  On the top, the high on the 5 minute chart corresponded with the topside channel resistance.  This increased the importance of the area (in addition to the hourly resistance).

Lending to banks rose 14.5B Euros in the current week

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 06:00 AM PST

IIF Dallara says we now call on all parties to honour October agreement

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 05:55 AM PST

  • Wants orderly management of Greek debt situation

The prospects for an agreement is becoming less and less likely it seems. Comments from Greek officials this morning pushed the agreement from this week to beginning of March. March 20th is the drop dead date as interest payments are due at that time.

S&P Chambers says Greece will likely be downgraded to selective default

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 05:54 AM PST

  • Having default within the EU does not necessarily destroy credibility in the Eurozone
  • It is not a given there will be a domino effect on other members in the EU

 

EURUSD breaks to the downside

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 05:44 AM PST

The action in the EURUSD has been very up and down for most of the trading day. The price peaked when the better PMI data was released.  The choppiness has converged the 100 and 200 bar MA. The last peak before the recent fall to new day lows held those moving averages (see blue and green lines in the chart above).  The bias is to the downside on the back of the recent move. Traders will not want to see the price move above the 100 and 200 bar MAs. Staying below the 1.2990 level would be even better for the bears/sellers (38.2% level).  Continued momentum to the downside is expected.

The move to the downside has increased the days trading range to around 100 pips. It is still below the 129 pips that is the average over the last 20 days of trading. In other words there still is room to run for the pair.

EU Rhen says EU backs the boosting of the firepower of the Eurozone bailout fund

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 05:38 AM PST

Canada Retail Sales Data Increases to 0.3% from 0.2% Survey

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 05:32 AM PST

Bobbys Corner-open Market-January.24.2012

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 05:25 AM PST

Good Morning:

The euro was firmer in overnight trading-after a report from the Euro Zone pointed to an expanding manufacturing and service sector.  This expansion data was unexpected, and much stronger than expected.
In a move to support local growth-the Reserve bank of India left their benchmark interest rate unchanged, but lowered their reserve ratio, in the hope of bringing more foreign investment to India.  With Europe in crisis mode-the RBI is looking to attract foreign investments that may of gone to the EU or other world business centers instead.

It seems that the Greek government and their bondholders are not able to come to an agreement on how to solve the nations debt crisis.
Finance ministers from Europe have been reluctant to pour more money into Greece.  The finance ministers have been hoping that the bondholders could offer some relief.

Asian equity markets were mixed-Europe is lower-as are US Futures.

Tonight at 9PM EST President Obama will give his “State of the Union” address.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

USDJPY breaks to new month highs.

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 05:08 AM PST

The USDJPY moved above the 100 day MA for the 3rd time in the last 4 days. This time the price has gathered momentum to the upside.  A close today above the 100 day MA will be the 1st close above the key level in the new trading year.  The price surge has taken the price above the 50% at 77.54.  In December the price closed only twice above this level. Staying above this level today should solicit more buying in the pair.

Later today, the Japan will release the Trade Balance for December. The expectation is that for the year the Trade Balance was a net negative. This would be the 1st time that Japan has had a deficit since 1980.

The 78.008 is the next key target (61.8% of the move down)  for the pair on the daily chart. The high since November has been 78.28.

On the downside, bulls looking for a sustained break higher today, will look to have corrections hold the 77.45-50 level today.  This is the 38.2% of the last surge higher in the pair. If the trend is to keep the momentum, holding this retracement area is often a good clue.

USDJPY, EURJPY and GBPJPY gain. Will it continue?

Posted: 24 Jan 2012 04:11 AM PST
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Monday, January 23, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

Dollar squeeze continues

Posted: 23 Jan 2012 07:22 AM PST

The EURUSD has continued the squeeze higher.   The pair moved to another high for the dayafter consolidating for an hour or so in NY trade.  The.market is short and as a result it becomes sensitive to good news.  If Greece is thought to come to an agreement, if Consumer Confidence is a touch better, if stocks move higher, if a trendline is broken - all have the potential to move the price higher with a short market. That is what we are seeing.

Eurozone Consumer Confidence comes in at -20.6 according to news report

Posted: 23 Jan 2012 07:15 AM PST

This is a correction to what was originally reported at 10 AM of -21.0. (expected -21.4).  The 2011 low came in December at -21.3. Prior to that, the most recent low was at -22.0 in August of 2009.

EURUSD consolidates in NY trade

Posted: 23 Jan 2012 06:20 AM PST

The EURUSD has consolidated at the top of the days trade. There is some lower highs in place but so far, no lower lows on the intraday chart. A move below the above trendline support at the 1.3010 wil need to be made followed by moves below recent lows in the same chart.  The 1.3007, 1.2997 and the 1.2984 prices which need to be taken out. The high from last week came in at the 1.3084 level. This will be a key level for any sellers .

Until these low levels can be broken the upside buyers remain in charge. The topside target comes in at the 1.3068 area (see hourly chart below).  The 1.30848 level is the midpoint of the move down from the December high to the January low.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-January.23.2012

Posted: 23 Jan 2012 05:59 AM PST

Good Morning:

Asian trading was muted as the start the Chinese New Year kept many Asian market participants away.

In a move that has been anticipated- EU Foreign Ministers announced that there will a ban on Iranian oil imports beginning July 1st in an effort to pressure the nation to contain its nuclear program.  The EU will try to put measures in place to ease the pain of an embargo for some countries, like Greece
Iran has been meeting with Indian officials on how to maintain trade-as the world looks to tighten sanctions around Iran and countries doing business with them.  Iran is India’s second largest oil supplier-and they have discussed Iran being paid in rupees.  Iran is seeking partial payment in JPY-as Iran is concerned about the value of the rupee staying somewhat stable.

Equity markets are higher-as are US Futures.

Oil, Gold and silver are all higher.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Canada Leading Indicators comes in higher at 0.8%.USDCAD weaker

Posted: 23 Jan 2012 05:40 AM PST

The expectation was 0.6%.

The USDCAD has moved sharply lower today breaking below channel trendline support – accelerating the move down. The 38.2% of the last major move down today comes in at the 1.0101 level.  The underside of the broken trendline comes in at the same area.

On the daily chart the low from December and early November comes in at the 1.0051 and 1.0053 level respectively.  This area should provide good support for the pair.

Canada Leading Indicators Data Released Higher Than Expectations Today at 0.8%, Revision Also Higher 0.9%

Posted: 23 Jan 2012 05:33 AM PST

EU Rehn says Greek talks can conclude Private Sector Involvement talks this week

Posted: 23 Jan 2012 05:18 AM PST

  • Talks moving well at technical level
  • Working on the basis of the October package
  • He adds that the EU Finance Ministers will talk about Greek PSI and Italy and Spain

How many times does the same thing have to be said.

EURUSD breaches 1.3000 for the 1st time since January 4th

Posted: 23 Jan 2012 05:09 AM PST

Belgiums Di Rupo need to use existing EFSF and ESM firepower

Posted: 23 Jan 2012 04:13 AM PST

  • Says will have balance budget in 2015

Meanwhile IMFs Lagarde says Europe should increase size of ESM.    Would like to see fund to be raised by up to 500 billion.  This would help in combating risks to Italy and Spain.

Spain’s Q4 GDP falls 0.3% vs. prior quarter, according to Bank of Spain

Posted: 23 Jan 2012 01:04 AM PST

Eur/Usd is off slightly to 1.2918.

The Forex Week Ahead

Posted: 22 Jan 2012 09:24 PM PST

1-23 Economic Calendar

Posted: 22 Jan 2012 08:51 PM PST

Aussie Above Trendline

Posted: 22 Jan 2012 05:45 PM PST

The AUDUSD pair broke above 6 month old trendline resistance, but has lost its bid at the 76.4% of the October to November move.

USDSGD Below Support

Posted: 22 Jan 2012 05:34 PM PST

The USDSGD pair is clearly below all the support we have been reviewing the last few weeks, with the 200 day mavg  ~ 2 big figures lower.

EURUSD Gaps Lower But Holds

Posted: 22 Jan 2012 05:22 PM PST

The EURUSD pair opened the week below the 1.29 handle, however it has held what was trendline resistance and the 21day moving average.
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Saturday, January 21, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

EURUSD keeps bullish bias but bounces off broken trendline

Posted: 20 Jan 2012 10:30 AM PST

The EURUSD has been keeping a better bid today, but it has been bouncing off the underside of the broken trendline.  So although there are reasons to be encouraged from the buy side, there are reasons to be encouraged from the short side. It is Friday and I am not surprised given the uncertainty out of Greece.
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Friday, January 20, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

US Existing Home Sales Slightly Weaker

Posted: 20 Jan 2012 07:01 AM PST

Existing Home Sales: Survey: 4.65M    Actual: 4.61M  Prior: 4.42M  Revised: 4.39%

Existing Home Sales (MoM):  Survey:   5.2%   Actual:  5.0%   Prior:  4.0%   Revised: 3.3%

EURJPY looking to roll over. Testing resistance against 100 and 200 bar MAs

Posted: 20 Jan 2012 06:47 AM PST

The EURJPY has rotated lower over the last few hours of trading moving below the 100 and 200 bar MAs in the process. The price has rebounded off the first low and is not up testing the 100 bar MA. Stay below and the downside bias intensifies

AUDUSD moves above trendline resistance and triggers stops

Posted: 20 Jan 2012 06:33 AM PST

The AUDUSD broke above trendline resistance on the daily chart and triggered stops (at 1.0450 level). Traders will be looking for the 1.0450 level to now be support for the pair.  A move below the level could lead to some liquidation on the failed break.  Otherwise bulls remain in control.

US Existing Home Sales Data Due at 10AM

Posted: 20 Jan 2012 06:32 AM PST

EURUSD moves toward underside of trendline.

Posted: 20 Jan 2012 06:24 AM PST

The Greece talks continue. There is no press conference scheduled. There is talk of a pre-agreement later today with technical agreement worked on over the weekend. The EURUSD has been rotating higher and approached the underside of the broken trendline at the 1.2936 level.

GBPUSD tests trendline resistance

Posted: 20 Jan 2012 06:17 AM PST

The GBPUSD took a run to the upside and tested the trendline resistance at the 1.5530 (high reached 1.5529).  The price has rotated back down as sellers used the level to define risk and limit risk.  A move above the trendline would likely solicit stops.

On the down side now, traders will be looking for the price to hold 1.5485-96.  The market closed at 1.5485. The 1.5496 is the earlier high area.

Dollar moves higher on Greece/Portugal concerns

Posted: 20 Jan 2012 05:33 AM PST

Canada Wholesale Sales Data Falls to -0.4%, Falling 1.3% From Prior Figure

Posted: 20 Jan 2012 05:30 AM PST

USD/CAD stays flat on the news.

Canada CPI Data Weaker Across the Board

Posted: 20 Jan 2012 04:03 AM PST

Consumer Price Index MoM:   Survey:  -0.2%  Actual: -0.6%   Prior: 0.1% 

Consumer Price Index YoY:    Survey: 2.7%   Actual: 2.3%   Prior: 2.9%  

Bank of Canada CPI Core MoM:   Survey: -0.2%   Actual: -0.5%  Prior: 0.1%  

Bank of Canada CPI Core YoY:    Survey: 2.2%   Actual: 1.9%   Prior:  2.1%

Consumer Price Index:  Survey: 120.8   Actual: 120.2    Prior:  120.9

Sarkozy says Eurozone still facing danger

Posted: 20 Jan 2012 02:06 AM PST

Eur/Usd down to 1.2890.

UK Retail sales rise 0.6% in December, matching forecast

Posted: 20 Jan 2012 01:32 AM PST

Gbp/Usd trades at 1.5470 after news, down 5 pips.

UK’s Broadbent on the wires

Posted: 20 Jan 2012 12:56 AM PST

* MPC not dealing in fine tuning policy

* BOE to keep forecast of flat Q4, Q1

* risks to UK overwhelmingly from Europe, downside risks lessened slightly over last 6 months

 

German PPI down 0.4% in December, a 0.1% rise was expected

Posted: 19 Jan 2012 11:03 PM PST

Eur/Usd has come off 7 pips to 1.2968 on heels of news.

1-20 Economic Calendar

Posted: 19 Jan 2012 08:41 PM PST

Chinese HSBC manufacturing PMI 48.8.

Posted: 19 Jan 2012 06:58 PM PST
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