Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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Forex Weekend Report for August 2-6 2010 Posted: 30 Jul 2010 12:17 PM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. Forex Weekend Report for August 2-6 2010

Forex Midday Report- July 30 Posted: 30 Jul 2010 09:25 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. Forex Midday Report

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• FOREX QUICK: EUR/USD Testing key upside level
• Chicago PMI and University of Michigan Confidence Both Higher
• Forex Quick: USD/CAD Double wedge may show potential
• Canada GDP Stays the Same but Outlook Slightly Weaker
• US GDP and Personal Consumption Fall as Price Index and PCE Gain
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.30.2010
• US GDP and Employment Cost Index Data due at 8:30AM
• Canada GDP Due out at 8:30AM
• KOF Economic Barometer (Swiss)
• Eurozone Unemployment
• Eurozone Flash CPI
• Moody’s Says Spain May Lose Aaa Rating
• German retail sales
• 7-30 Economic Calendar

FOREX QUICK: EUR/USD Testing key upside level Posted: 30 Jul 2010 08:20 AM PDT FOREX QUICK: EUR/USD Testing key upside level

Chicago PMI and University of Michigan Confidence Both Higher Posted: 30 Jul 2010 06:57 AM PDT

Forex Quick: USD/CAD Double wedge may show potential Posted: 30 Jul 2010 06:42 AM PDT Forex Quick: USD/CAD Double wedge may show potential

Canada GDP Stays the Same but Outlook Slightly Weaker Posted: 30 Jul 2010 05:35 AM PDT

US GDP and Personal Consumption Fall as Price Index and PCE Gain Posted: 30 Jul 2010 05:33 AM PDT GDP (QoQ) Annualized:      Survey: 2.6%          Actual: 2.4%            Prior:  2.7%         Revised: 3.7% Personal Consumption:     Survey: 2.4%          Actual: 1.6%           Prior:  3.0%      Revised: 1.9     GDP Price Index:     Survey:  1.1%         Actual:  1.8%       Prior:  1.1%       Revised: 1.0% Core PCE (QoQ):    Survey:  1.0%         Actual: 1.1%        Prior: 0.7%       Revised: 1.2% Employment Cost Index:    Survey:  0.5%     Actual: 0.5%       Prior: 0.6%

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.30.2010 Posted: 30 Jul 2010 05:16 AM PDT Good Morning: The JPY hit it’s strongest level in 2010 overnight as speculation mounts that the slowdown in the US economy will hamper the global recovery.  Today’s US GDP report will show that the US economy is losing traction-as consumer spending slowed. Moody’s made comments that Spain may lose it’s Aaa rating, after putting the country on review for a possible downgrade in June.  Spain’s unemployment rate rose to 20.1%-the highest in the EU. Moody’s also made comments that the US needs a “clear plan” to tackle the mounting deficit that continues to grow. Asian equity markets were lower-ans is Europe.  US Futures are also pointing to a lower opening this morning. Oil:$77.85                                                     Gold:$1170.20   TODAY’S RELEASES TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 8:30A.M. GDP QoQ (ANNUALIZED) 2Q A 2.50% 2.70% 8:30A.M. PERSONAL CONSUMPTION 2Q A 2.40% 3.00% 8:30A.M. GDP PRICE INDEX  2Q A 1.10% 1.10% 8:30A.M. CORE PCE QoQ 2Q A 1.00% 0.70% 8:30A.M. EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX  2Q 0.50% 0.60% 9:45A.M. CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER JULY 56.O 59.1O 9:55A.M. U. OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE  JULY F        67.O 66.5O 10:00A.M. NAPM-MILWAUKEE JULY 57.O 59.O HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

US GDP and Employment Cost Index Data due at 8:30AM Posted: 30 Jul 2010 05:03 AM PDT

Canada GDP Due out at 8:30AM Posted: 30 Jul 2010 04:57 AM PDT

KOF Economic Barometer (Swiss) Posted: 30 Jul 2010 02:56 AM PDT KOF Economic Barometer came in at 2.23, weaker than the 2.32 expected and inline with prior reading. Usd/Chf  is up about 10 points to 1.0419, while the weakness in the Euro has Eur/Chf down 20 points to 1.3538 since release of figures.

Eurozone Unemployment Posted: 30 Jul 2010 02:04 AM PDT Eurozone Unemployment Rate remains at 10.0%, as expected. This release should have no impact on trading.

Eurozone Flash CPI Posted: 30 Jul 2010 02:02 AM PDT Eurozone Flash CPI y/y came in at 1.7%, weaker than the 1.8% expected, but stronger than the prior reading of 1.4%. Eur/Usd currently trades at 1.3048.

Moody’s Says Spain May Lose Aaa Rating Posted: 29 Jul 2010 11:39 PM PDT Moody’s says Spain may lose Aaa rating; U.S. needs “clear plan.” Eur/Usd currently trades at 1.3070.

German retail sales Posted: 29 Jul 2010 11:01 PM PDT German retail sales m/m came in at -0.9%, weaker than the 0.0% expected and 0.4% prior reading. Eur/Usd is off about 10 points to 1.3063 on news.

7-30 Economic Calendar Posted: 29 Jul 2010 08:50 PM PDT

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• FOREX QUICK: USD/CHF pushes hard to support at 1.0393
• Forex Morning Report July 29
• Initial Jobless Claims a Touch Better as Continuing Claims Slip
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.29.2010
• FXDD Live Training Saturday July 31 2010 Los Angeles CA with Greg Michalowski
• UK Mortgage Approvals/ Net Lending
• German Unemployment Change
• EUR/JPY Grinding Higher
• UK Nationwide HPI m/m
• EUR/JPY Testing 100 Hr MAVG
• 7-29 Economic Calendar
• Japan’s Retail Sales
• New Zealand Trade Balance
• RBNZ Official Cash Rate
• NZD Interest Rate Decision due at 5PM

FOREX QUICK: USD/CHF pushes hard to support at 1.0393 Posted: 29 Jul 2010 06:53 AM PDT FOREX QUICK: USD/CHF pushes hard to support at 1.0393

Forex Morning Report July 29 Posted: 29 Jul 2010 06:35 AM PDT Forex Morning Report July 29

Initial Jobless Claims a Touch Better as Continuing Claims Slip Posted: 29 Jul 2010 05:32 AM PDT Jobless Claims:     Survey: 460K         Actual: 457K          Prior: 464K        Revised: 468K Continuing Claims:           Survey: 4500K           Actual: 4565K         Prior: 4487K          Revised: 4484K

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.29.2010 Posted: 29 Jul 2010 05:23 AM PDT Good Morning: The Euro jumped overnight as the lackluster US recovery that is being stymied by Europe’s accelerating economy is causing concerns to investors, and is spurring demand for the single currency.  The euro also accelerated as a report showed that  European confidence regarding the economic recovery rose to the highest level in over 2 years. Speculation is that the US economy is slowing as stimulus packages are removed from the system.  Tomorrow’s report on GDP is estimated to show a 2.5%  growth rate-which is lower than last quarters 2.7% rate. Asian equity markets were mixed, and Europe is higher on better earnings and sentiment in the Euro Zone. US Futures are higher at this time. Oil:$76.74                                                     Gold:$1163.30   TODAY’S RELEASES TIME FOR  EST PRIOR 8:30A.M. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS 24-Jul 460K 464K 8:30A.M. CONTINUING CLAIMS 17-Jul 4500K 4487K HAVE A GEREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

FXDD Live Training Saturday July 31 2010 Los Angeles CA with Greg Michalowski Posted: 29 Jul 2010 05:00 AM PDT CLICK HERE TO REGISTER Date: Saturday, July 31st Location: Los Angeles Airport Marriott 5855 West Century Boulevard Los Angeles, California 90045 Directions: http://www.marriott.com/hotels/maps/travel/laxap-los-angeles-airport-marriott/ Any questions, feel free to contact me at greg@fxdd.com

UK Mortgage Approvals/ Net Lending Posted: 29 Jul 2010 01:33 AM PDT The British pound traded slightly lower against all of the major currencies after June net lending came in worse than expected and final mortgage approvals came in as expected. The details are as follows: Net Lending to Individuals (m/m) - Survey: 1.3B   Actual: 0.65B   Prior: 1.5B Final Mortgage Approvals - Survey: 48K   Actual: 48K   Prior: 48K

German Unemployment Change Posted: 29 Jul 2010 12:56 AM PDT The euro regained some strength after the German June unemployment change came in as expected at -20K; slightly better than the previous showing of -21K.

EUR/JPY Grinding Higher Posted: 29 Jul 2010 12:05 AM PDT In the prior post we acknowleged that the pair was using the 100 hour moving average as support, and it is still holding.  The pair has been slowly grinding higher and has reached a session high of 113.89. If this momentum continues we may see it reach 114.35 where we have seen some short term support and resistance.

UK Nationwide HPI m/m Posted: 28 Jul 2010 11:01 PM PDT The GBP traded slightly lower after UK’s July Nationwide HPI (m/m) came in at -0.5%; worse than the forecast of -0.2% and prior reading of 0.1%.

EUR/JPY Testing 100 Hr MAVG Posted: 28 Jul 2010 09:19 PM PDT On the hourly chart, EUR/JPY has tested the 100 hour moving average with the last three candlesticks but has not been able to break through to the downside. The pair is currently trading around the 113.30-40 area, which was a level of resistance from July 15th to the 20th. If support holds, the first target to the topside is the 23.65 fibo line (on the move from the low on July 21st to the high on the 28th) at 113.61.

7-29 Economic Calendar Posted: 28 Jul 2010 08:50 PM PDT

Japan’s Retail Sales Posted: 28 Jul 2010 05:03 PM PDT Japan’s June Retail Sales readings came in generally as expected, with a better reading for the larger retailers’. The markets have had a limited reaction, with no more significant data in the Asian session; we can expect to range into the London morning. The details of the release are as follows: Retail Trade (MoM sa) - Survey:.4%   Actual:0.4%   Prior:-2.0% Retail Trade (YoY) - Survey:3.2%   Survey:3.2%   Actual:2.8% Larger Retailers’ Sales - Survey:4.0%   Actual:-3.0%   Prior:-4.0%

New Zealand Trade Balance Posted: 28 Jul 2010 03:51 PM PDT Continuing with the Kiwi this Asian session, we had the New Zealand June Trade Balance reading for June fall short of expectations. The NZD/USD didn’t trade off on this release after being battered following the rate decision. Trade Balance - Survey:368M   Actual:276M   Prior:814M  Imports - Survey:3.36B   Actual:3.51B   Prior: 3.39B Exports - Survey:3.50B   Actual:3.78B   Prior:4.20B Trade Balance (12mo YTD) - Survey:729.5M   Actual:   Prior:91M

RBNZ Official Cash Rate Posted: 28 Jul 2010 02:13 PM PDT The Royal Bank of New Zealand was expected to raise rates by 25 basis points to 3% and did just that. However, the Kiwi sold off considerably on the dovish/negative c0mments from Bollard that accompanied the statement.  The comments were as follows: Pace of rate rises may be more moderate. NZD gains inconsistent with economic outlook. NZD gains inconsistent with export price decline. Levels of cash rate very supportive of economy. The Kiwi hit trendline support on the release, where we could see some support for the pair ahead of the 4-100hr moving average.

NZD Interest Rate Decision due at 5PM Posted: 28 Jul 2010 01:23 PM PDT …….

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• FXDD Webinar July 29th 2010 4pm
• FOREX QUICK: EUR/GBP moving lower on EUR stalling
• Rebroadcast of Tuesday July 27 2010 Webinar
• Forex Morning Report- July 28
• Durable Goods Orders Worse Than Expected
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.28.2010
• Durable Goods Data Due at 8:30AM
• Fisher Comments
• BOE Gov King Speaks
• ECB Statements Soften EUR
• German Prelim CPI
• UK’s Osborne Speaks in Mumbai
• Bruederle comments…
• Kamezaki on the wires…
• 7-28 Economic Calendar

FXDD Webinar July 29th 2010 4pm Posted: 28 Jul 2010 06:51 AM PDT Space is limited. Reserve your Webinar seat now at: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/890499793 FXDD Webinar July 29th 2010 - Greg Michalowski and Shawn Powell teach a special Forex analysis class at 4pm New York Time. Free to attend Title: FXDD Webinar July 29th 2010 4pm Date: Thursday, July 29, 2010 Time: 4:00 PM - 5:00 PM EDT After registering you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the Webinar.

FOREX QUICK: EUR/GBP moving lower on EUR stalling Posted: 28 Jul 2010 06:44 AM PDT FOREX QUICK: EUR/GBP moving lower on EUR stalling

Rebroadcast of Tuesday July 27 2010 Webinar Posted: 28 Jul 2010 06:32 AM PDT Rebroadcast of Tuesday July 27 2010 Webinar

Forex Morning Report- July 28 Posted: 28 Jul 2010 06:15 AM PDT Forex Morning Report- July 28

Durable Goods Orders Worse Than Expected Posted: 28 Jul 2010 05:31 AM PDT Durable Goods Orders:   Survey:  1.0%      Actual: -1.0%     Prior:  -1.1%     Revised: -.8% Durables Ex Transportation:   Survey:  0.4%      Actual:  -.6%     Prior:   0.9%    Revised:  1.2%

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-July.28.2010 Posted: 28 Jul 2010 05:29 AM PDT Good Morning: The GBP rose to a 5 month high-running through the 1.56 level before settling back into the 1.55 handle.  The positive news out of the UK may not be sustainable-but the bulls are in control for the time being. EUR/USD traded around the 1.30 handle most of the session.  The pair stalled at 1.3041 before settling in to a narrow range.  JPY was stronger overall.  As sentiment rises that the global economic recovery is slowing, investors looked to the safety of the JPY versus higher-yielding assets. Asian equity markets rose-European markets are lower-and US Futures are mixed at this time.  Concerns of the economic recovery slowing down added to today’s sell off in Europe.  We will be looking at this morning’s Durable Goods data for direction. Oil:$77.39                                                        Gold:$1162.60   TODAY’S RELEASES TIME FOR  EST PRIOR  REVISED 7:00A.M. MBA MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS 23-Jul 7.60% 8:30A.M. DURABLE GOODS ORDERS  JUNE 1.00% -1.10% -0.60% 8:30A.M. DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION JUNE 0.40% 0.90% 1.60% 2:00P.M.  FEDS BEIGE BOOK           HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Durable Goods Data Due at 8:30AM Posted: 28 Jul 2010 04:58 AM PDT

Fisher Comments Posted: 28 Jul 2010 02:04 AM PDT Following King, these comments were made: Upside risks to CPI have grown, but also downside risks to global growth. Financial markets have become fragile, exacerbating tight credit. Expects the economy to evolve “broadly in line” with May inflation projections. Any future monetary tightening would involve a rise in rates first. Would not want to do anything that impacts Gilt market

BOE Gov King Speaks Posted: 28 Jul 2010 02:00 AM PDT Governor King made the following statements while testifying, along with other BOE MPC members, on monetary policy and financial stability: It is important to implement new basel standards over a long transition period. Financial markets are more volatile due to concerns about bank balance sheets. Q2 GDP growth is encouraging, but must be careful not to read too much into one number. Can’t be certain that recovery will be sustained in the UK. Risks on both upside and downside to inflation. Vat tax will likely keep inflation above target for much of 2011. MPC debate is above appropriate degree of stimulus; not applying brakes. Arguing that we have room to use monetary policy in either direction. It is very important for Britian to demonstrate that there is a plan to control government debt. Current growth rates (of money) are not a threat to inflation. When it comes to selling assets- must come with pre-announced program. Principle of bank levy as medium to long term instrument is sensible. Fiscal positions in Europe and U.S. are very different, but all must have a credible plan. Paying out large amounts in dividends and bonuses is not helping balance sheets. Lending agreements with banks have not been effective. Government needs to look at the role of state owned banks in boosting lending. The GBP/USD trading to a session low of 1.5544 following the release of these comments.

ECB Statements Soften EUR Posted: 28 Jul 2010 01:16 AM PDT The euro traded lower after the ECB released the following statements: Sovereign debt crisis appears to have worsened banks’ ability to obtain funding in Q2. Banks expect, in Q3,  difficulties in accessing wholesale funding to remain although not to the same extent as Q2. 24% of banks said that demand for home loans increased in Q2; 5% expect rises in Q3. Net tightening on credit standards to households for home loans reported by 10% of banks in Q2 versus 10% in Q1. 2% of banks said that firms’ demand for loans fell in Q2, 29% of banks expect a rise in demand in Q3. 5% of banks expect further tightening of credit standards in Q3. Shown on the hourly chart, the downward move following the statements has brought the EUR/USD back to the 23.6% fibo line on the move from the low on July 23rd to the high on the 27th. If downward momentum continues, the next target is 1.2965 where support has been found already today. Support found here may bring us to the 0.0% line at 1.3046.

German Prelim CPI Posted: 28 Jul 2010 01:07 AM PDT The following are the CPI releases from the individual German states: Brandenburg -    Actual: 0.3%   Prior: 0.1% Hesse -  Actual: 0.3%   Prior: 0.5% Wuerttemberg - Actual: 0.2%   Prior: 0.1% More will following later…..

UK’s Osborne Speaks in Mumbai Posted: 28 Jul 2010 12:07 AM PDT Urges India to raise foreign direct investment cap on insurance market to 49%. Wants to see  a deal on EU-India free trade agreement by early next week. UK financial services authority is giving India’s Exim bank a license to operate in the UK.

Bruederle comments… Posted: 27 Jul 2010 11:27 PM PDT German Economic Minister Rainer Bruederle told reporters that there is now sustainable recovery in Germany and they will now be exiting the crisis package step by step. Following these comments the EUR is trading at session highs against the USD.

Kamezaki on the wires… Posted: 27 Jul 2010 11:22 PM PDT BOJ policy board member Hidetoshi Kamezaki said that the central bank will not guide its policy with specific foreign exchange levels in mind. The following comments were also made: Yen’s rise will push down exports in the short term. No need to change outlook for Japanese economic recovery. Japan growth may stall temporarily in 4th quarter. Always need to watch the impact on yen’s rise. Expect Europe markets to regain calm after stress tests. Yen demand as a safe haven is rising. Expect Japan economy to absorb negative impact of expiring stimulus.

7-28 Economic Calendar Posted: 27 Jul 2010 08:50 PM PDT

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