Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- ISM Index comes in lower than expected (54.0). Lower than last month at 52.9
- $USDCHF holds support at 38.2% retracement and 100 bar MA
- Oct 01 2009 Forex Market Update
- EURUSD moves above 1.4551 level but has additional resistance at 1.4576
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.1.2009
- GBPUSD is finding support at the 100 hour MA. Resistance at 1.5992. Then high for day.
- Initial Claims rise to 551K for the week but Continuing Claims fall. Spending 8 year high on stimulus measures.
- Jobless Claims, Personal Income and Spending due at 8:30
- Challenger announced layoffs fall 30.2% to the lowest level since March 2008
- EURUSD is down testing the support as NY enters
- Eurozone August Unemployment
- BoE Quarterly Credit Conditions Survey
- UK PMI
- European PMI figures
| ISM Index comes in lower than expected (54.0). Lower than last month at 52.9 Posted: 01 Oct 2009 07:03 AM PDT
Pending Home Sales meanwhile rose by a strong 6.4% for the month. |
| $USDCHF holds support at 38.2% retracement and 100 bar MA Posted: 01 Oct 2009 06:55 AM PDT The USDCHF moved up for most of the London trading day but is consolidating/correcting off the highs. The correction has taken the price down 38.2% to the 1.0408 level. The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is at 1.0414. As long as this level can hold, look for a continued momentum move to the upside with a break of the 1.0443/52 level needed to propel the pair higher. The longer term topside target is the 1.0507 level which is the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the June high at 1.1022 to the recent lows at the 1.0188 level (see chart below). Should the support level break at the 1.0408 level, the downside would next target support at the 1.0395 level. A move below 1.0381 targets the 1.0350 area where channel support can be found. |
| Oct 01 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 01 Oct 2009 06:30 AM PDT New Video Pending |
| EURUSD moves above 1.4551 level but has additional resistance at 1.4576 Posted: 01 Oct 2009 06:06 AM PDT There is resistance at the 1.4576 level now This is the 38.2% retracement of the days range and 100bar MA on the 5 minute chart. Watch for support at 1.4551 now. |
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.1.2009 Posted: 01 Oct 2009 05:50 AM PDT
It was a tough morning for the Euro as the EUR/USD pair fell back into the 1.45 handle. Comments by EU Commissioner Almunia expressed concerns about the appreciating Euro. Mr. Almunia’s comments are similar to French President Sarkozy’s comments at the G-20 meeting in September. This mat be an indication that European Union officials are becoming concerned regarding the relentless rise of the Euro. World equity markets are lower this morning-and US Futures are pointing to a lower opening this morning. Oil:$69.82 Gold:$1004.70 Today’s data: HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK |
| GBPUSD is finding support at the 100 hour MA. Resistance at 1.5992. Then high for day. Posted: 01 Oct 2009 05:43 AM PDT The GBPUSD has continued to find support at the 100 hour MA (currently at the 1.5943 level). In London, the MA was broken to the downside but could not could not maintain the downside momentum (low reached 1.5923). In the last dip post the 8:30 data showed the price dipped down to the 1.5948. This level will need to be breached to turn the bias bearish. On the topside, the pair has some small resistance at the 1.5976 level. A move above the 1.5976 level should lead to further momentum gains to the 1.5992. A break above this level will target the high for the day at the 1.6024 level. |
| Posted: 01 Oct 2009 05:35 AM PDT Personal Spending rises by 1.3% and Income rose by 0.2%. The Initial Claims rose to 551 K from 534K last week. Continuing Claims fell to 6090K vs expectation of 6170K and a revised 6160K. Overall, the Spending increase was the highest MoM gain in 8 years. Cash for clunkers program has helped as has other stimulus measures including lower interest rates and first time home purchase rebate seem to be helping. |
| Jobless Claims, Personal Income and Spending due at 8:30 Posted: 01 Oct 2009 05:24 AM PDT The Initial Claims are expected to show a small gain to 535K from 530K. The Continuing Claims are expected to rise to 6170K from 6138K last week. Personal Spending for August is expected to rise by 1.1% while Income is expected to rise by a less 0.1%. When spending increases more than incomes, the savings rate declines and normally suggests the spending can not be maintained. So although this would be positive, it might be at the expense of future spending. Nevertheless, stimulus from spending is often needed to spur on business confidence and this in turn may prompt businesses to hire new workers which does create income growth. In either case, expect little initial reaction off the release. |
| Challenger announced layoffs fall 30.2% to the lowest level since March 2008 Posted: 01 Oct 2009 05:16 AM PDT The amount of job cuts announced in September fell by 30.2%. The total of cuts fell to 66,404 which is the lowest level since March 2008. This is positive news and suggests the jobs situation is indeed improving. The EURUSD has gained a little off the news as the market is trying to decide if good news is good for the EURO (Risk taking and global economy improves) or does it mean the US is closer to tightening which should benefit the dollar. So in these circumstances where fundamentals are confused, it is best to follow the technical picture. That continues to have a negative bias for currecny pairs like the EURUSD. A move above the 1.4551 level gives the pair a more even bias, but downside, is still favored until the price moves above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart. |
| EURUSD is down testing the support as NY enters Posted: 01 Oct 2009 04:35 AM PDT The old breakout trendline on the daily chart is being breached at the 1.4544 level and is likley to lead to further downward pressure for the EURUSD this morning. The low yesterday came in at 1.4527. A break of this level will next look to old lows from Sep 10th (see chart below) at the 1.4502 level. A break of that level would target the 1.4447 level which is the old high from August 5th. Finally, the 38.2% retracement from the move up from the June 16th low to the high reached in September comes in at the 1.4425 level. On the topside a move back above the 1.4551, the prior low for the day, would look to target the 100 bar MA which is falling and currently at the 1.4581 level. This level also corresponds with the 38.2% retracement level of the move down today. The bias remains to the downside. Look for rebounds to be sold. |
| Posted: 01 Oct 2009 02:03 AM PDT Eurozone August Unemployment inline with estimates at 9.6%. This is the highest reading on record , 0.1% higher than prior months 9.5%. |
| BoE Quarterly Credit Conditions Survey Posted: 01 Oct 2009 01:38 AM PDT BoE quraterly survey shows corporate lending spreadsto narrow in Q4. House price prospectsexpected to help credit supply. Unsecured consumer spreads broadly unchanged. The survey findings helped sterling rebound from bad PMI figures just minutes prior. |
| Posted: 01 Oct 2009 01:34 AM PDT UK September Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.5, weaker than the 50.2 expected. The pound got hit across the board on bad number as Gbp/Usd traded down to 1.5935 before rebounding to 1.5960 , still off from pre-number levels. |
| Posted: 01 Oct 2009 01:14 AM PDT Italian PMI Manufacturing 47.6 vs. 45.2 expected. French Final PMI Manufacturing 53.0 vs. 52.5 expected. This is the highest reading since Feb. 2008. German Final PMI Manufacturing 49.6 vs. 49.6 expected. Eurozone Final PMI Manufacturing 49.3 vs. 49.0 expected. Overall good numbers for Euro as we continue to see Eur/Usd rebound off earlier lows currently trading at 1.4585. |
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