Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• ISM Manufacturing sends the dollar higher
• US ISM Higher & Construction Spending Both Higher
• EURUSD tries rotation to the upside.
• ECB Bini Smaghi on the newswires
• Weaker US data keeps USDJPY down. Other pairs mixed
• US ISM & Construction Spending Data at 10AM
• The data is weak for the US
• Bobbys Corner-Market Open-Nov.1.2010
• US Personal Income Falls Along with Spending, While PCE Stays Flat
• NY Opening Forex Commentary-Dollar weak as Key Events loom
• Personal Income, Spending & PCE Data due at 8:30AM
• UK Manufacturing PMI
• 11-1 Economic Calendar
• China PMI Manufacturing
• UK Hometrack Housing Survey

ISM Manufacturing sends the dollar higher Posted: 01 Nov 2010 07:04 AM PDT ISM comes in stronger than expected and the dollar moves higher. The ISM came in at 56.9 from 54.4 last month.  The expectations was for a fall to 54.0.   The Employment component rose to 57.7 from 56.5, New Orders rose to 58.9 from 51.1 and the Production index rose to 62.7 from 56.5.  All are nice increases and above the 50 dividing line between expansion and contraction.

US ISM Higher & Construction Spending Both Higher Posted: 01 Nov 2010 07:04 AM PDT ISM Manufacturing:    Survey:  54.0       Actual:  56.9           Prior: 54.4 ISM Prices Paid:    Survey: 70.0         Actual: 71.0           Prior: 70.5 Construction Spending (MoM):     Survey: -0.5%         Actual: 0.5%       Prior:  0.4%      Revised: -.2%

EURUSD tries rotation to the upside. Posted: 01 Nov 2010 06:57 AM PDT The EURUSD held support against the 200 hour MA on 4 separate occassions over the last 20 or so hours. It will be watched as support going forward.

ECB Bini Smaghi on the newswires Posted: 01 Nov 2010 06:33 AM PDT Debt creation is anything but orderly Flow of credit to private sector is rebounding ECB to remove QE measures as conditions improve Eurogroup failed to enforce stability pact Debt restructuring is anything but orderly Comments are in line of recent comments by ECB members. No reaction in the EURUSD. Meanwhile the Dow is opening up 50 points.  Nasdaq is up 12 while the S&P is up 6 points. Oil is up over $2.00.

Weaker US data keeps USDJPY down. Other pairs mixed Posted: 01 Nov 2010 06:23 AM PDT

US ISM & Construction Spending Data at 10AM Posted: 01 Nov 2010 06:18 AM PDT

The data is weak for the US Posted: 01 Nov 2010 05:42 AM PDT PCE Core, a favored inflation guide for the Fed, was unchanged for the month. The YoY measure is a scant 1.2%, down from a revised 1.3% (was 1.4%). The Personal income fell by -0.1% while spending increased by 0.2%. Both were less than expected. The Savings Rate fell to 5.3% from 5.6%. The YoY Income rose by 3.1%. Personal Consumption rose by 3.7% YoY. So although there is talk of increased savings, consumption has still outpaced income and the savings rate has fallen from 5.7% to 5.3%. This data overall is a vote for more stimulus. The USDJPY has moved back below October 22nd low at 80.41 and looks set to close once again below the 1995 low of 80.73 today. Friday was the lowest close since that time. The pair closed at 80.46.  In the chart above, staying below the 100 and 200 bar MA at the 80.44-48 levels keeps the bias down today for the pair.  The low at 80.24 is the next target for the pair. The April 1995 lows came in at 80.10 and 79.75. These too become targets for the pair.

Bobbys Corner-Market Open-Nov.1.2010 Posted: 01 Nov 2010 05:40 AM PDT Good Morning: The markets opened in Asia as the JPY moved 100 pips on the open-but settled down to the Friday NY closing levels by the time Europe woke up. The FX markets then stayed fairly stable as market participants have their eyes on Wednesday’s all important Fed meeting. The Fed new QE2 policy will be announced, and results from the US mid term elections will also be posted by Wed AM. PMI data from both China and the UK were promising for both economies-thus showing that the global economic recovery continues to maintain pace-even though not as fast as some would like. Tommorrow is election day in the US.  It is mid term elections and the entire US House of Representatives is up for re election-as are  37 Senate seats and 37 State Governor slots.  We will see if the Democtares can keep their majority in Congress. The equity markets enter November on a positive note-after the the best Sept-Oct performance since 1998. Asian equity markets were mostly higher-Europe and US Futures are higher at this time. Oil:$82.11                                             Gold:$1358.40   TIME FOR EST. PRIOR 8:30A.M. PERSONAL INCOME SEPT 0.30% 0.50% 8:30A.M. PERSONAL SPENDING SEPT 0.40% 0.40% 8:30A.M. PCE DEFLATOR YoY SEPT 1.40% 1.50% 8:30A.M. PCE CORE MoM SEPT 0.10% 0.10% 8:30A.M. PCE CORE YoY SEPT 1.40% 1.40% 10:00A.M. ISM MANUFACTURING  OCT. 54.O     54.4O 10:00A.M. ISM PRICES PAID OCT.       7O.5     70.5O 10:00A.M. CONSTRUCTION SPENDING MoM SEPT. -0.50% 0.40% HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

US Personal Income Falls Along with Spending, While PCE Stays Flat Posted: 01 Nov 2010 05:31 AM PDT Personal Income:           Survey: 0.2%         Actual: -.1%        Prior: 0.5%          Personal Spending:        Survey: 0.4%         Actual: 0.2%         Prior: 0.4%        PCE Deflator:    Survey: 1.4%         Actual: 1.4%         Prior: 1.5%         PCE Core(MoM):     Survey: 0.1%         Actual: .0%         Prior: 0.1%       PCE Core(YoY):    Survey: 1.3%         Actual: 1.2%         Prior: 1.4%     Personal Income and Spending Report that was released is showing chain consumption up in Q3 along with current consumption. Goods data fall from 3.4 in Q2 to 2.8 in Q3 from chain consumption, and Goods rises within current consumption from -0.3 in Q2 to 3.8 in Q3.

NY Opening Forex Commentary-Dollar weak as Key Events loom Posted: 01 Nov 2010 05:10 AM PDT

Personal Income, Spending & PCE Data due at 8:30AM Posted: 01 Nov 2010 05:03 AM PDT

UK Manufacturing PMI Posted: 01 Nov 2010 02:30 AM PDT UK Manufacturing PMI came in at 54.9, stronger than the 53.2 expected. Gbp/Usd rose about 40 points thus far on news, currently trading at 1.6085.

11-1 Economic Calendar Posted: 31 Oct 2010 08:54 PM PDT

China PMI Manufacturing Posted: 31 Oct 2010 06:53 PM PDT The official October PMI Manufacturing indicator from China beat expectation at 54.7, better than the survey of 53.8 and the prior reading of 53.8. The news revived a light USD bid in the market but it has since subsided.

UK Hometrack Housing Survey Posted: 31 Oct 2010 06:48 PM PDT The UK Housing Price Index declined further, down -0.9% for the month and -0.1% on a year over year basis. This represents a fourth straight decline in the index and the largest decline since January 2009. The deflationary reading did not help the Pound.

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