Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• Factory Orders also stronger
• Chicago PMI comes in at 56.5. Higher than expected
• Chicago PMI due at 9:45 AM ET. Est 53.3
• GBPUSD finds resistance against the 100 hour MA and 38.2% Fibo
• Swiss Finance Minister: CHF is still massively overvalued.
• USDCHF bounces off the 0.7990 (200 hour MA). 0.8021 eyed above.
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.31.2011
• Canada Flaherty says Canada domestic economy remains strong
• USDCHF falls below 100 hour MA (other support levels) and falls lower
• Swiss economy minister Schneider says CHF situation is still difficult
• Canada GDP -0.4% for Q2. Worse than expected. MoM and YoY slightly better
• ADP comes in at 91K Less than expectations
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary for August 31st 2011
• Challlenger Job Cuts up 47%. Total cuts 51,114
• Market prepares for job clues this morning

Factory Orders also stronger Posted: 31 Aug 2011 07:01 AM PDT Rise by 2.4% vs 2% expected. The prior month was revised higher to -0.4% from -0.8%. Durable Goods orders came in a touch higher than previously reported.  The Durables GOods Orders came in at 4.1% vs 4.0% reported earlier.

Chicago PMI comes in at 56.5. Higher than expected Posted: 31 Aug 2011 06:45 AM PDT Prices paid          68.6  vs 71.7 Production           57.8  vs 64.3 New orders           56.9 vs 59.4 Order backlogs       49.6  vs 55.7 Inventories          52.9  vs 53.2 Employment           52.1  vs 51.5 Supplier deliveries  60.5 vs 55.9 The headline number is better than expectations but below the prior month at 58.8 and down from 61.1 in June.

Chicago PMI due at 9:45 AM ET. Est 53.3 Posted: 31 Aug 2011 06:43 AM PDT There are rumors of a stronger value.

GBPUSD finds resistance against the 100 hour MA and 38.2% Fibo Posted: 31 Aug 2011 06:33 AM PDT The GBPUSD pushed against resistance against the 100 hour MA and the 38.2% retracement  at the 1.6334 adn 1.63295 level respectively. The high reached 1.6332 and backed off. Traders will use this level to lean against with stops on a move above.   On the downside, traders will like to see a move back below the 1.6300 level to confirm that the correction higher from yesterdays sharp fall is over. This would take the price below the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart below.  If that level is broken, the pair has a double bottom from yesterdays low and todays low at the 1.6254 area.  A break below this level will be needed to get the pair moving more sharply to the downside.

Swiss Finance Minister: CHF is still massively overvalued. Posted: 31 Aug 2011 06:19 AM PDT But comments that the Swiss will have to keep living with the overvalued currency.  Only the SNB can have an short term impact on the CHF Swiss govt to spend 870 mlm CHF for unemployment benefits and other measures to counter the strong CHF The pair has rebounded off the low support against the 0.7990 level but is finding sellers against the 0.8021 level which is the 50% of the move up from August 19th to the high reached on Monday.

USDCHF bounces off the 0.7990 (200 hour MA). 0.8021 eyed above. Posted: 31 Aug 2011 06:12 AM PDT The resistance above comes in at 0.8021 level which is the 50% of the move up from the August 19th low.  A move above should trigger additional upside corrective potential.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.31.2011 Posted: 31 Aug 2011 06:07 AM PDT Good Morning: I am returning from a bit of vacation-and the aftermath of Hurricane Irene.  We lost power for 3 days, and a few trees-but no major damage, and everyone is safe and healthy-which is the most important.  ADP reported that the private sector added 91K new jobs-a little less than the 100k that was expected.     All eyes will be on this Friday’s unemployment data,  and Non Farm payroll numbers. World equity markets are higher-and US  Dow Futures are up over 100 points at this time. Gold is higher-and Oil is hovering around the $90/bar level. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Canada Flaherty says Canada domestic economy remains strong Posted: 31 Aug 2011 06:06 AM PDT Fiscal results broadly consistent with plan Canada growth will be modest Canada must stay the course. BOC has more room to move than the Fed. Wants to avoid a bubble in real estate

USDCHF falls below 100 hour MA (other support levels) and falls lower Posted: 31 Aug 2011 05:52 AM PDT   Overnight the USDCHF fell below the 100 hour MA and trendline support at the 0.8082 level. The price is also below the 38.2% of the move up from the August 19th low to the high reached on Monday.  That level comes in at the 0.8078 level.  Finally, the price is also below the trendline that was broken on the daily chart on Monday (see chart below).  That level comes in at the 0.8059.  The bearish technicals all lined up and this is pressuring the pair lower in NY trade. The next targets for the pair include the 0.8021 level which is the 50% of the move up from August 19th  and the 200 hour MA (green line in the hourly chart above) at the 0.7990 level.  With the healthy move to the downside today, I would expect profit taking against the level with stops should the level (0.7990) be broken.

Swiss economy minister Schneider says CHF situation is still difficult Posted: 31 Aug 2011 05:43 AM PDT Says another package for 2012 is being prepared SNB is responsible for monetary policy Regarding the second stimulus package, he comments it is not guaranteed if the CHF softens. The USDCHF and EURCHF fell overnight on the back of the failure to mention the Swiss Franc (i.e. comments on how to curb the strength) in normal Wednesday comments.

Canada GDP -0.4% for Q2. Worse than expected. MoM and YoY slightly better Posted: 31 Aug 2011 05:31 AM PDT Month on Month comes in at 0.2% which was a touch better than 0.1%. THe YoY was also a touch better at 2.0% vs 1.9% expectations. The USDCAD has moved lower initially on the news but has rebounded back higher. The data is sufficiently weak from one respect (QoQ) but not as bad on the others (MoM and YoY a touch better).   From a technical perspective, the 0.9769 level will be eyed by traders. This is the trendline from the bear flag formation.  A move below the line and traders will be looking for momentum to push the price to the next target at the lows from Monday at 0.97388.  A break of that level should open the door for further selling pressure.

ADP comes in at 91K Less than expectations Posted: 31 Aug 2011 05:15 AM PDT Prior month revised lower to 109k from 114k.

The NY Morning Forex Commentary for August 31st 2011 Posted: 31 Aug 2011 05:14 AM PDT

Challlenger Job Cuts up 47%. Total cuts 51,114 Posted: 31 Aug 2011 04:33 AM PDT Government layoffs were double from the prior month (18.5K vs 9.7k).  Retail had 5.9K cuts vs 11.2K last month (better) Financial rose to 8K vs 3K last month The number of cuts were down from 66,414 last month (16 month high) but still higher than the lows in 2010 and earlier this year.  The report does not report on job gains.

Market prepares for job clues this morning Posted: 31 Aug 2011 04:19 AM PDT  The monthly job picture starts to come in focus with the Challenger Job Cuts and the ADP Employment Change. The Challenger Job Cuts showed there were 66,414 announced cuts last month.  This was 59.4% higher than a year agos value.  Last year in August there were 34,768 cuts announced.  This was the second lowest in 2010. So expect another increase on a year on year basis. The ADP is an estimate of private sector jobs and is expected to show a rise of 100 K.  Last month the value came in at 114K. Actual Private sector jobs came in at 154K (from Labor department) so there may be a revision to the upside in this report.

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• AUDUSD tests 100 day MA at the 1.0645 level
• Consumer Confidence at 44.5. Way weaker than expected
• EURUSD consolidating in early NY trading
• S&P Case Shiller 20 composite index comes in -4.52%
• USDCHF comes off highs. Momentum fades above 0.8210 again. Levels eyed.
• Canada Account 2nd highest on record. Industrial Product Price as expected. Raw Material Price down a larger -1.2%
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Feds Evan is worried about the pace of recovery
• Feds Evans to speak on CNBC in 5 minutes
• Fitch says French deficit plan should support their AAA rating
• Cable testing support @ 61.8% hourly
• German chancellor Merkel says she is confident that the ECB will keep inflation in check.
• EU’s Barroso on the Wires
• European August Economic Confidence Falls to 98.3, Survey 100.2
• UK Consumer Credit & Lending Lower, Mortgage Aprovals Slightly Rise

AUDUSD tests 100 day MA at the 1.0645 level Posted: 30 Aug 2011 07:06 AM PDT The AUDUSD is testing the 100 day MA at the 1.0645.  Key level for the pair.  The price has been above it today. It has been below it today.  The price has been supported by the break of the bull flag three trading days ago. The pair will be fighting between USD weakness on weak data/QE3 possibility and risk off that could tilt the AUDUSD to the downside. The 100 day MA is the dividing line from a technical perspective.

Consumer Confidence at 44.5. Way weaker than expected Posted: 30 Aug 2011 07:00 AM PDT 51.9 for Expectations. Last 74.9.  33.3 for Present Situation  Last 35.7 “Jobs hard to get” at the highest since November 2009. This came in at 49.1 vs 44.8 last month

EURUSD consolidating in early NY trading Posted: 30 Aug 2011 06:30 AM PDT The EURUSD has been consolidating after the fall overnight. The EURUSD trended to the downside, helped lower by an Italian bond auction which was less than stellar.  The dovish Chicago Fed Evan’s comments led to some dollar selling and the pair moved higher above the 200 hour MA (green line in the chart above).  The 1.4440 area (38.2% of the days range) and the 100 hour MA at the 1.4449 level remain upside resistance levels.  Staying below keeps the bears satisfied. Moving above and market sellers are likely to be disappointed.  Downside targets include the 200 hour MA at the 1.4415, the low at 1.4384, the trendline at 1.4373 The US Consumer Confidence will be released at 10 AM.  At 2:00 the Fed Minutes will be released.  The Confidence numbers are expected to be weak. The minutes will be eyed to any further details to why the Fed chose to change the language to include that rates will likely remain unchanged until mid 2013. The markets remain non committed to a trend.  Trading becomes an exercise in patience.

S&P Case Shiller 20 composite index comes in -4.52% Posted: 30 Aug 2011 06:03 AM PDT The MOM came in a -0.6%.  The next data release will be the Conference Board Consumer Confidence. The expectation is for a sharp fall to 52 from 59.5. This would be the lowest level since October 2010 when it came in at 49.90.

USDCHF comes off highs. Momentum fades above 0.8210 again. Levels eyed. Posted: 30 Aug 2011 05:56 AM PDT Fed’s Evans dovish comments sent Gold prices higher and the USDCHF reverted back to its safe haven mode and moved lower.  The price tested support against the 0.8184-88 level (see chart above).  The level corresponds with the 38.2% of the days range.  This level will be eyed closely by the market to determine the markets commitment to the bullishness seen over the last few weeks.  If it breaks below, the market will likely show continued liquidation.  On the topside, the 0.8210 level remains a key level.  The level corresponds with the 38.2% of the move down from the November 2010 high.  The hourly chart below shows that over the last two days the price has moved above this key level, but each time the move has been brief and the price has reversed lower. This worries the bulls. The chart below shows the  daily chart and the importance of the 0.8210 level. The 38.2% of the move down from the November 2010 high comes in at the level.    The level seems to be slowing the move higher (at least for the time being).  If momentum can be developed above the level (and so far it has not), then the potential exists for a move toward the 100 day MA.  The USDCHFhas not been above this key moving average since. February 2011 when the price moved above the area for a few days befoe moving back lower. First things first however. A move above 0.8210 is needed.

Canada Account 2nd highest on record. Industrial Product Price as expected. Raw Material Price down a larger -1.2% Posted: 30 Aug 2011 05:36 AM PDT The Raw Material Prices fell a surprising -1.2% for the current month. This is on the back of a -2.4% decline last month.  The Current Account fall was the second largest on record on the back of exports falling and imports rising. The higher Canadian dollar seems to be having an effect on the flow of trade in Canada.  The USDCAD has move modestly higher on the data.

The NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 30 Aug 2011 05:18 AM PDT

Feds Evan is worried about the pace of recovery Posted: 30 Aug 2011 05:10 AM PDT Not technically in a recession Economy is going sideways Worse off without QE2 Favors strong accomodation Recent data has been soft Fed was not a driver of commodity price surge 3% inflation would be as bad as 1% inflation Thinks we should do more monetary policy Evans comments are largely dovish biased and the EURUSD has moved higher during his talk and trades near the NY high at the 1.4420.

Feds Evans to speak on CNBC in 5 minutes Posted: 30 Aug 2011 04:56 AM PDT

Fitch says French deficit plan should support their AAA rating Posted: 30 Aug 2011 04:55 AM PDT

Cable testing support @ 61.8% hourly Posted: 30 Aug 2011 02:38 AM PDT Early we said said our downside target was the 38.2% line; the pair has continued its sell off and is now testing the 61.8% at 1.6300.

German chancellor Merkel says she is confident that the ECB will keep inflation in check. Posted: 30 Aug 2011 02:31 AM PDT

EU’s Barroso on the Wires Posted: 30 Aug 2011 02:17 AM PDT Says: Urges ‘swift’ national passage or Euro rescue measures Rapid EU passage of economic governance laws Financial transaction tax will be ‘key instrument’

European August Economic Confidence Falls to 98.3, Survey 100.2 Posted: 30 Aug 2011 02:03 AM PDT

UK Consumer Credit & Lending Lower, Mortgage Aprovals Slightly Rise Posted: 30 Aug 2011 01:32 AM PDT Consumer Credit:   Survey: 0.4B   Actual: 0.2B  Prior: 0.4B  Lending:   Survey: 0.8B   Actual: 0.7B   Prior: -0.1B  Revised:  0.0B Mortgage Aprovals:   Survey: 49.0K   Actual: 49.2K  Prior: 48.4K   Revised: 48.5K

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• EURCHF on it’s own mission higher
• USDCHF moves above the 38.2% Fibo Resistance
• IMF cuts 2011 world GDP to 4.2% from 4.3%
• ECB Trichet says central bank will maintain solid anchoring of inflation expectations
• USDCHF moves to new day highs. Keeps bullish bias intact
• EURUSD tries the upside. Moves back above the 1.4516 old August high
• Trichet, Juncker, Rehn is due to speak at 9 AM ET.
• Pending Home Sales due later at 10:00 AM ET
• Income as expected at 0.3%, Spending higher at 0.8% (vs 0.5%)
• US Personal Spending and Income due at 8:30 AM ET
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary for August 29th 2011
• French foreign minister Juppe says preserving EUR is in Europe’s best interest.
• GBP/USD finding resistance from 61.8% on hourly
• S&P says its unlikely to change Japan grade outlok to stable for now.
• Italian consumer confidence (Aug) 100.3 vs. 101.9 expected.

EURCHF on it’s own mission higher Posted: 29 Aug 2011 07:45 AM PDT The EURCHF is also moving sharply higher today – breaking above the trendline resistance at the 1.1781 level.  The pair has reached a high today of 1.1970 as it moves closer and closer to the key 100 day MA and 61.8% retracement of hte move down from the April 6th high at 1.2026 level.   The pair started this move higher after breaking above the bull flag on Friday (see chart above).

USDCHF moves above the 38.2% Fibo Resistance Posted: 29 Aug 2011 07:20 AM PDT The USDCHF (and EURCHF) has continued its move to the upside with the pair now breaking above the 38.2% of the move down from the December 2010 high to the low reached this month at the 0.8210 level at the 0.8210 (see prior post by clicking here).  Traders will be watching the level for support on a move back lower.  Staying above, keeps the bulls in charge today as it would be a clear sign that the the  trend higher continues for the pair.  Another level to watch on the downside will be the 0.8190 level which is the 38.2%o of the last leg higher in the pair.  Staying above this level will also keep the bulls in charge (see chart below) The USDCHF is finding support as worries about intervention remain.  Interest rates are also near 0% in Switzerland which is making holding CHF difficult for speculators. UBS announced on Friday, they would be charging a fee for certain deposits which in effect lowers the rate even more.   The measures, coupled with a  weaker currency that has some bullish technicals taking charge could keep the bulls in charge for the pair.  The next key upside target for the pair is the 100 day MA at the 0.8368 level. This target  is not out of the question for the pair.

IMF cuts 2011 world GDP to 4.2% from 4.3% Posted: 29 Aug 2011 06:31 AM PDT EU Forecast cut to 1.9% from 2.0% for 2011.  2012 cuts forecast to  1.4% from 1.7%

ECB Trichet says central bank will maintain solid anchoring of inflation expectations Posted: 29 Aug 2011 06:16 AM PDT He adds ECB not taking on too much risk. Increase in ECB Balance sheet not as large as large Fed or BoE Moderate growth expected in the EU Uncertainty remains high Inflation likely to stay above 2% in the coming months Underlying pace of monetary remains moderate Liquidity to remain for precautinary measures Bond purchases are no substitute for budget discipline ECB bond purchases to restore policy transmission No liquidity shortage in EU banks

USDCHF moves to new day highs. Keeps bullish bias intact Posted: 29 Aug 2011 05:59 AM PDT The USDCHF has continued its move to the upside and is trading at new highs for the day. The price last traded at this level on July 22nd, 2011.  The next target will come in at the 0.8210 level which is the 38.2% of the move down from the December 2010 high to the low reach this month.  The price broke above trendlines today at 0.8095 and on Friday moved above the bull flag formation (see chart below).  Momentum is developing. Intraday traders will like to see the price hold above the 0.8155 level. This was the high from Friday and an area where the price held earlier today. Below that level is the 38..2% fibonacci retracement of the days range at the 0.8142. Staying above this level will keep the bulls in charge for the pair (see chart below).

EURUSD tries the upside. Moves back above the 1.4516 old August high Posted: 29 Aug 2011 05:45 AM PDT The EURUSD broke activity has picked up with a move back above the 200 bar MA (green line) on the 5 minute chart at the 1.4500 level. The price has pushed to a high of 1.4523 (so far). This is  above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.4515 level (blue line).    The 1.4516 level was also the high from August 17th. Staying above might gain the markets attention and push the price onward. Staying above the 1.4516 will of course look toward the highs for the day at the 1.4548 level. Above that level the July high at 1.4576 will be the next target to surpass (see the hourly chart above).

Trichet, Juncker, Rehn is due to speak at 9 AM ET. Posted: 29 Aug 2011 05:38 AM PDT They are to speak at the EU Parliament on Debt Crisis

Pending Home Sales due later at 10:00 AM ET Posted: 29 Aug 2011 05:36 AM PDT

Income as expected at 0.3%, Spending higher at 0.8% (vs 0.5%) Posted: 29 Aug 2011 05:31 AM PDT The Savings Rate fell back to 5.0% from 5.5% last. Meanwhile PCE Core rose by 0.2% MoM and the Core YoY rose to 1.6% vs 1.5% expected. There is very little activity.  London is off today which is keeping activity lighter today.

US Personal Spending and Income due at 8:30 AM ET Posted: 29 Aug 2011 05:24 AM PDT   The Savings Rate rose to 5.4% last month.  Consumers are retrenching and spending less. US PCE Core is expected to rise by 0.2% MoM and 1.5% YoY.

The NY Morning Forex Commentary for August 29th 2011 Posted: 29 Aug 2011 04:56 AM PDT

French foreign minister Juppe says preserving EUR is in Europe’s best interest. Posted: 29 Aug 2011 02:43 AM PDT

GBP/USD finding resistance from 61.8% on hourly Posted: 29 Aug 2011 02:19 AM PDT For the most part tonight the pair has traded between the 100 hour moving average and 61.8% retracement line on the move from last Wednesday’s high Friday’s low; mostly due to the lack of economic data. Currently, the first significant level lower is the 50.0% line at 1.63691; higher is 1.64402 where we find the 200 hour moving average and and old support level from earlier in the month.

S&P says its unlikely to change Japan grade outlok to stable for now. Posted: 29 Aug 2011 01:54 AM PDT

Italian consumer confidence (Aug) 100.3 vs. 101.9 expected. Posted: 29 Aug 2011 01:20 AM PDT

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• UBS says clearing fees could be charged if flows continue into cash clearing accounts
• SNB denies that a letter sent to Swiss banks telling them to charge for deposits
• Say UGH! No conviction in the EURUSD
• EURUSD bounces off yesterday’s low. No desire to extend lower.
• Rumors of Swiss bank deposits is starting to be dismissed
• Rumor a Swiss bank is charging for CHF deposits. USDCHF and EURCHF soar
• EURUSD corrects quickly to 1.4396 and falls back off

UBS says clearing fees could be charged if flows continue into cash clearing accounts Posted: 26 Aug 2011 08:50 AM PDT So rates are not negative but fees may be charged.

SNB denies that a letter sent to Swiss banks telling them to charge for deposits Posted: 26 Aug 2011 08:25 AM PDT …And the USDCHF/EURCHF falls sharply.

Say UGH! No conviction in the EURUSD Posted: 26 Aug 2011 08:24 AM PDT The EURUSD went right down to yesterday’s/week’s lows and bounced like straight up. Yes it paused at yesterday’s close/38.2% of the days range, but that was short lived and the price is now back above the 1.4400 level (and 200 and 100 hour MA at the 1.4396 and 1.4409 levels respectively) and looks toward the topside of the range.  The 1.4450 level seemed impossible just an hour ago, but anything is possible in this market. THat level corresponds with the topside trendline in the hourly chart below.  A move above targets 1.4470, and the high for the week at 1.4499.  Maybe the extension of the narrow week range is above, not lower? Reports in the market (rumors are in control) are that the stocks (which are helping the recovery) are back higher on the back of an asset reallocation out of bonds and into equities.  If stocks catch a bid going into the weekend, this would be the catalyst for a move.  What is clear is the market players are still not intent to trend the market in the EURUSD but happy to keep the “like don’t marry trading positions” stance.  Be patient and be sure to define risk against technical levels - if you have to trade. The price action is not lying.  Anything can happen. So risk a little. If you find good trade location, target from level to level.  They are pretty clear at this point.  IF you miss a trade.  There will be another.  So don’t regret.

EURUSD bounces off yesterday’s low. No desire to extend lower. Posted: 26 Aug 2011 08:12 AM PDT The 1.4327 was the low from yesterday and it is the low from today. If the market was intent on selling and trending the chance was there to push it through the low and extend the range.  Instead profit takers came in and bought the pair - moving the price back higher…quickly.  The price  has pushed back higher and tests the close from yesterday at the 1.4378 level and the 38.2% of the days range at 1.4378. The high has reached 1.4381 so far.  This is a key level for the pair.

Rumors of Swiss bank deposits is starting to be dismissed Posted: 26 Aug 2011 07:58 AM PDT USDCHF and EURCHF starting to come back off.

Rumor a Swiss bank is charging for CHF deposits. USDCHF and EURCHF soar Posted: 26 Aug 2011 07:40 AM PDT There is chatter that a Swiss bank is starting to charge for depositing funds in their bank .  This is helping to push the CHF pairs to the upside. From a technical perspective, the price has moved above trendline resistance and approaches the 38.2% of the move down from the November 2010 high to the low reached this month. That level comes in at the 0.8210 area.  A move above that has the 100 day MA at the 0.8377 area as a longer term target for the pair.  Look for support below at the 0.8075 area. This was a low in July before the final accelerated push to the downside.  Before that level the 0.8093 may find some support. This is the 38.2% of the last sharp leg to the upside in the USDCHF (see chart below). If support can hold against this level shorts in the market may get worried and push the pair to new higher highs.

EURUSD corrects quickly to 1.4396 and falls back off Posted: 26 Aug 2011 07:37 AM PDT As per prior post, the 1.4396 level held corrective resistance.  ON the downside the price is pressuring the downside support levels at the 1.4358 and the 1.4346 level (losw from Monday).  THe 1.4327 low for the week is the next target below that with the 1.4309 and 1.4260 On the topside now, the 1.4385-96 remains the area for the price to stay below to keep the bears happy. A move above these levels will muddy the water and likely discourage the shorts.

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

---

• EURUSD falls sharply on no QE. Stocks down
• Bernanke. No new steps for promoting growth.
• Michigan comes in at 55.7 vs 55.8
• From the low support to the high resistance
• Forex Fast Track Live Trading Workshop- Phoenix/Scottsdale AZ October 1 2011
• USDJPY rallys slowly and fall quickly
• Former Fed Governor Kroszner says all burdens cannot be on monetary policy
• Greece activates special liquidity fund for banks
• Goldman chief economist says see a one in three chance of recession
• US GDP Slightly Lower, Personal Consumption Up
• EURUSD tracking along the technical path before Bernanke
• Feds Plosser (voted against language in FOMC Statement) says FOMC overly pessimistic
• US GDP Data Due at 8:30AM
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary for August 26th is available for viewing
• EURUSD tests trendline and 100 hour MA in early NY trade

EURUSD falls sharply on no QE. Stocks down Posted: 26 Aug 2011 07:13 AM PDT In volatile trade the EURUSD fell sharply on the back of no new QE and a stock market that is down 178 points now. The price has moved below the support against the 200 hour MA a(green line) t the 1.4396 area. This level is also trendline support from the August 11th low.  The market will be watching this level on any correction higher. If the price can remain below, the bears remain in charge.  Staying below the 1.4396 will target the 38.2% oat the 1.4358. The low from Monday at 1.4346 and the low from yesterday at 1.4327 are all other close targets. The range for the week remains narrow so an extension of the range cannot be ruled out. Markets are still volatile and will likely remain so as the stock market flucuates.  Will the traders who move the market show up today. They have not been there this week, with extensions rejected.

Bernanke. No new steps for promoting growth. Posted: 26 Aug 2011 07:01 AM PDT http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20110826a.htm Range of tools for stimulating growth Optimistic view on prospects Pace of recovery disappointing Recession deeper than expected Expects action for housing by government September meeting to 2 days from one day Inflation to be at or below 2% 2H likely to improve Recovery has been slow and erratic FInancial stress will be a drag Recovery will likely strengthen over time Fed needs to be alert to financial risks to recovery Fed has limited ability to ensure long run growth Needs better process for fiscal decisions.

Michigan comes in at 55.7 vs 55.8 Posted: 26 Aug 2011 06:55 AM PDT Consumer confidence  55.7 final vs preliminary  54.9. Last month 63.7 Economic conditions  68.7  final vs preliminary  69.3   Last month 75.8 (lowest since Aug 2009) Economic outlook     47.4  final vs preliminary  45.7 Last  month 56.0

From the low support to the high resistance Posted: 26 Aug 2011 06:54 AM PDT As the 10 AM Bernanke speech approaches the EURUSD moved up to test the 1.4450 trendline resistance.  This is the opposite of the NY low extreme which tested the support against the 200 hour MA and trendline from August 11th.   The Chairmans speech will not be live. The Fed is likely to release the text on their website at http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/default.htm . The headlines will stream over the wires. The expectation is there is no additional QE.  The chairman is expected to say he has tools available should the need arise.

Forex Fast Track Live Trading Workshop- Phoenix/Scottsdale AZ October 1 2011 Posted: 26 Aug 2011 06:42 AM PDT

USDJPY rallys slowly and fall quickly Posted: 26 Aug 2011 06:39 AM PDT  The USDJPY spent a few days moving from level to level – slowly but surely. The price reached and surpassed the 38.2% of the move down from the intervention high reached on August 4th at 77.54.  A higher reached 77.65 and when the price moved back below the 38.2% level, the selling was on.  From there ther price moved from level to level (see chart above) in a trending  move. The 5 minute chart below shows the acceleration of the decline.  The support target comes in at the 76.50 area now. A break below targets 76.25 and 76.00.

Former Fed Governor Kroszner says all burdens cannot be on monetary policy Posted: 26 Aug 2011 06:12 AM PDT Feels Bernanke will say has all the tools in case something goes wrong It will be up to fiscal and others to get jobs stimulated No direct focus on the stock market by the Fed. Fed is not the cure all. He will likely defend the QE2

Greece activates special liquidity fund for banks Posted: 26 Aug 2011 05:48 AM PDT The expectation is that banks expected to tap liquidity fund.  This liquidity is to counter the flow of funds out of Greek banks.  THe WSJ reported today.  The withdrawl of funds exasperates the problems with Greece as banks have less money to lend out.  This is a reminder of the bearishness inherent in the Euro region from the problems in countries like Greece.

Goldman chief economist says see a one in three chance of recession Posted: 26 Aug 2011 05:42 AM PDT They expect an extension of the payroll tax cut.  Expects Q3 and Q4 to be quite soft. His comments are a reminder that the dollar has a reason to be weak. This seems to balance the EURO issues. CNBC is harping on how the German Dax is down 20% this month. This is certainly bearish for the EURUSD.  So the bulls and bears fight it out.

US GDP Slightly Lower, Personal Consumption Up Posted: 26 Aug 2011 05:32 AM PDT GDP (Annualized):   Survey: 1.1%   Actual: 1.0%   Prior: 1.3%   Personal Consumption:   Survey: 0.2%   Actual: 0.4%   Prior: 0.1%   GDP Price Index:   Survey: 2.3%   Actual: 2.4%   Prior: 2.3%   Core PCE QoQ:   Survey: 2.1%   Actual: 2.2%   Prior: 2.1% The data is a touch weaker than expected. The focus now switches to the 10 AM speech from Ben Bernanke.

EURUSD tracking along the technical path before Bernanke Posted: 26 Aug 2011 05:30 AM PDT The EURUSD has moved off of the high in early NY trade and has tested the technical path that the traders have blazed in the recent trading on both the upside and the downside so far today. The low reached in the NY session has so far bounced off the 200 hour MA (green line) and the upward sloping trendline which extended up from the August 11th low.  Earlier, the price tested, then fell below, the 100 hour MA (blue line) and another trendline developed over the last 4 days of trading. That level came in at the 1.4111 area. WIth the price below this level currently, this level is now topside resistance.  The price between support at 1.4386 and resistance at 1.4411 is the comfort zone for traders for the time being. Yesterday the price fell below these support levels and fell sharply – extending the narrow trade range in the process.  The range for the week continues to be contained with a low fo 1.4327 and a high of 1.4499.  The range does have a chance to be extended today (either to the upside or the downside) and with Bernanke on tap at 10 AM, the chance for a volatile move can be expected.  On the downside, in addition to the levels mentioned above at 1.4396, the 38.2% of the move up from August 11th low at 1.4358 is another target. Below that the original low for the week at the 1.4346, the current low at 1.4327 and the 50% retracement at 1.4309 are targets.The 100 day MA (not shown) comes in today at the 1.4364. On the topside, a move above the 1.4411 level will need to be breached.Above that, the trendline tested earlier today at the 1.4450 area will be key.  This trendline has been tested on 4 separate occasions over the last 4 trading days.  Above that 1.4470, 1.4500 and then the August high at 1.4516.

Feds Plosser (voted against language in FOMC Statement) says FOMC overly pessimistic Posted: 26 Aug 2011 05:14 AM PDT Fed should sit tight, monitor data His economic forecast has not changed very much Inflation is in a pretty good place Fed will support dollar funding issues in Europe It is a mistake to hold rates low to 2013 Rate pledge not well crafted communication Businesses are frozed because of uncertainty Does not see Europe causing crisis Sees a long slog for the US recovery Fed is doing all it can to sustain economy US needs a fiscal plan that is sustainable

US GDP Data Due at 8:30AM Posted: 26 Aug 2011 05:09 AM PDT

The NY Morning Forex Commentary for August 26th is available for viewing Posted: 26 Aug 2011 05:01 AM PDT

EURUSD tests trendline and 100 hour MA in early NY trade Posted: 26 Aug 2011 04:42 AM PDT

You are subscribed to email updates from Forex News and Commentary by FXDD To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now.	Email delivery powered by Google
Google Inc., 20 West Kinzie, Chicago IL USA 60610