Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Patient sellers find the 100 hour MA too hard to resist
• GBPUSD eyes the 38.2% retracement level
• EURUSD moves up initially then comes back off
• Canada Building Permits Have Very Strong Number, 2.1% VS Prior Number of -5.0%
• US Nonfarm Payrolls Rise, Unemployment Falls
• NFP rises by 117 K. UneEmployment falls 9.1%
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.5.2011
• GBPUSD above and below 100 day MA
• EURUSD targets outlined through NFP report
• Canada Building Permits Expecting a Negative Number
• US Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate Due at 8:30AM
• Canada Unemployment Rate Drops to 7.20% For The First Time Since Feb 09′
• German industrial production (June) -1.1% vs. 0.1% expected.
• S&P affirms Ireland’s sovereign ratings; outlook stable.
• Italian prelim GDP (q/q) 0.3%.

Patient sellers find the 100 hour MA too hard to resist Posted: 05 Aug 2011 06:44 AM PDT The EURUSD moved higher after holding support against the 100 bar MA and 50% retracement area on the 5 minute chart. From there the price surged but found willing sellers against the 100 hour MA at the 1.4227 level (high reached 1.4231).  The price is now back below the 1.4200 level.   Now watching the 1.4187 level, 1.4176  and 1.41634 for support

GBPUSD eyes the 38.2% retracement level Posted: 05 Aug 2011 06:13 AM PDT

EURUSD moves up initially then comes back off Posted: 05 Aug 2011 05:40 AM PDT The EURUSD shot up on the better than expected NFP (relief move reversing the risk off trade). The price has moved back and has been able to stay above the 38.2% of the move up from the low reached in the Far East session . That level comes in at teh1.4154. Staying above this level will be needed to keep the trade in place. If the price moves below this level, there could/should be a change in sentiment on the disappointment to reverse the losses from yesterday higher. Watch the action at this level. UPDATE.  The price ahs moved below the 38.2% and will not target the 50% and the 100 bar MA at the 1.4135. Below that the 1.4116 level is where the 200 bar MA and the 61.8% of the days range.   This is also the trendline from the hourly chart.

Canada Building Permits Have Very Strong Number, 2.1% VS Prior Number of -5.0% Posted: 05 Aug 2011 05:32 AM PDT

US Nonfarm Payrolls Rise, Unemployment Falls Posted: 05 Aug 2011 05:32 AM PDT Change in Nonfarm Payrolls:   Survey:  85K     Actual:  117K    Prior:  18K      Revision: 46K Change in Private Payrolls:  Survey: 113K    Actual: 154K     Prior:  57K     Revised: 80K Change in Manufacturing Payrolls:  Survey: 10K   Actual:  24K   Prior:  6K     Revised: 11K Unemployment Rate:  Survey:  9.2%     Actual:  9.1%     Prior:  9.2%       Avg Hourly Earning (MoM) All Emp:    Survey:  0.2%     Actual: 0.4%      Prior:  0.0%          Avg Hourly Earning (YoY) All Emp:    Survey:  1.9%      Actual: 2.3%      Prior:  1.9%       Avg Weekly Hours All Employees:    Survey:  34.3      Actual: 34.3           Prior:  34.3

NFP rises by 117 K. UneEmployment falls 9.1% Posted: 05 Aug 2011 05:30 AM PDT Private payrolls 154K vs 113 expected . Manufacturing 24K vs 10 K.  Revisions were also higher with NFP revised higer at 46K vs 18K and Private Payroll 80k vs 57K. Overall, a better than expected report which may appease the stock market. Nevertheless the  numbers are not consistent with an economy expanding.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.5.2011 Posted: 05 Aug 2011 05:29 AM PDT Good Morning: FX markets are very nervous ahead of this morning’s NFP and employment data. The consensus is for non Farm Payrolls to be up 85K.  This may not be enough to have the 9.2% unemployment rate fall. After yesterday’s stock market drop, the markets are close to a panic mode.  Asia and European equity markets were and are being battered also.  Asian bourses were down as much as 4 %, while Europe is currently off about 1%. The main concern is that any US recovery seems to be a faltering, as US consumers continue to put the brakes on spending.  The stimulus packages that were put into place seem not to have gotten much traction, and the question arises that if there was another round of QE-would it really help? Europe is also a mess, with their debt problems growing-not fading.  Italy is now on the fore front of the debt issue in the EU.  The ECB continues to pump money into the system, and are busy buying  some sovereign bonds.  It seems that the ECB is focusing their buying to Irish and Portuguese bonds-not extending their bond pruhasing to Italy and Spain at this tim-Confusing isn’t it! I wish you ar GREAT D

GBPUSD above and below 100 day MA Posted: 05 Aug 2011 05:27 AM PDT The GBPUSD is above and below the 100 day MA at the 1.6259 level today. There is also the 61.8% retracement at the  1.6252 and trendline support at the low for the day.

EURUSD targets outlined through NFP report Posted: 05 Aug 2011 05:24 AM PDT The EURUSD has resistance at 1.42065 and then the 1.4231 where the 100 hour MA is currently located.   ON the downside, the trendlines in the chart above are the initial targets to get through. The top trendline comes in at the 1.4117 level. Below that the low from yesterday at 1.4054 and the trendline at 1.4035 are the next targets.

Canada Building Permits Expecting a Negative Number Posted: 05 Aug 2011 04:38 AM PDT

US Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate Due at 8:30AM Posted: 05 Aug 2011 04:28 AM PDT

Canada Unemployment Rate Drops to 7.20% For The First Time Since Feb 09′ Posted: 05 Aug 2011 04:02 AM PDT

German industrial production (June) -1.1% vs. 0.1% expected. Posted: 05 Aug 2011 03:05 AM PDT

S&P affirms Ireland’s sovereign ratings; outlook stable. Posted: 05 Aug 2011 02:22 AM PDT Says Ireland’s strong political consensus in favour of fiscal consolidation and sees it hitting 3% of GDP deficit target by 2015.

Italian prelim GDP (q/q) 0.3%. Posted: 05 Aug 2011 02:15 AM PDT

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