Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

University of Michigan Confidence Rises to 75.0 from Prior and Survey of 74.0
Volatility takes hold. Dollar up and down in NY trading
AUDUSD reverses and now down on the day
USDCAD shoots higher
EURSD consolidating. Low at 1.3076 targeted
Bobbys Corner-Open Market-January.27.2012
GDP not up to snuff
US GDP Weaker Than Expectations
US 4 Q GDP awaited
Dollar decline continues today. Greece optimism. Better Italian bill auction cited.
US GDP, Personal Consumption, Core PCE Data Due at 8:30
EU’s Rehn expects Greece deal “if not today, then over weekend”
Eurozone M3 Money Supply up 1.6% vs 2.2% expected for year
Swiss KOF Economic Barometer -0.17 vs -0.06 expected
German Import Prices as expected for December at 0.3%

University of Michigan Confidence Rises to 75.0 from Prior and Survey of 74.0

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 06:55 AM PST

75.0 highlest level since February 2011

Jan 12 vs. Dec 11
Consumer Confidence: 74.0 vs 69.9
Economic Conditions: 82.6 vs 79.6
Economic Outlook: 68.4 vs 63.6

Volatility takes hold. Dollar up and down in NY trading

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 06:49 AM PST

AUDUSD reverses and now down on the day

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 06:20 AM PST

The AUDUSD reversed course with a reversal of the stock market in pre opening trading. The price fell below the close from yesterday at the 1.0630 level but has found support against the 38.2% of the weeks trading range. Traders will likely use these two areas as the extremes for trading this morning. The burden is still on the sellers to push the price lower.

ON the topside, traders will also be watching the 1.06227 level which is the 38.2% of the move down. Holding this level on the correction higher might be a sign that traders are willing to sell and lighten up positions into the weekend. A move above could be a sign, the flush lower was just a quick. low liquidity move.

USDCAD shoots higher

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 05:56 AM PST

The Dec job gain was revised up to 21,700 from 17,500 but the USDCAD has moved sharply higher over the last 20 or so minutes of trading. The surge higher has nearly fully reversed the decline today and seems to have surprised a short market. The high for the day at 1.0039 is the next target to get through. On the downside look for the 38.2% of the move higher to hold support at the 1.0018 level. IF the move higher did catch shorts, and is supported by good buying, this level should find willing buyers. Aggresive buyers would look to hold support closer at the 1.0024 area. Is it real or is it just a Friday move on low volume?

EURSD consolidating. Low at 1.3076 targeted

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 05:49 AM PST

The EURUSD has moved below the close from yesterday at the 1.3108. The price is also now below the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.3120 level currently. The low for the day at the 1.3076 level is the next target for the pair.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-January.27.2012

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 05:36 AM PST

Good Morning:

With a looming 14 billion euro payment due in March-the Greek government is in continuous talks with their private creditors to restructure their debt. This has been the centerpiece of the currency markets for the past week. Creditors are insisting on ECB participation in the Greek debt mess.
In other news from the Euro Zone:
Portuguese bond yields reached new highs-as market participants are in the mindset that Portugal may need a second bailout to work out their debt mess.
Spain’s unemployment rate rose to over 22%-as the loss of construction jobs continues to hamper any employment recovery.

US Q4 GDP rises 2.8%.

Asian equity markets were higher-Europe is lower-as are US Futures.

Oil is higher-still below $100/bar. Gold is lower.

HAVE A GREAT DAY-WEEKEND & GOOD LUCK

I will be out of the office next week-as I am having knee surgery. I will hobble back on Feb 6.

GDP not up to snuff

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 05:36 AM PST

Headline 2.8%
Consumption 2% vs 2.4% expected (Contributed 1.45%
Investment rose 20% (Contributed 2.35%)
Government -4.6% (Subtracted -0.93%)

Exports rose 4.7% (Net Exports subtracted -0.11%)
Imports rose by 4.4%

Inventories (which are part of Investment) added 56B. This contributed 1.94% of the 2.35% gain in investments.

Real Final Sales rose by 0.4% vs +2.6% last quarter.
Unannualized, GDP rose by 0.7% QoQ vs 0.5%. This was the highest reading since 2Q of 2010

US GDP Weaker Than Expectations

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 05:31 AM PST

(Annualized): Survey: 3.0% Actual: 2.8% Prior: 1.8%

Personal Consumption: Survey: 2.4% Actual: 2.0% Prior: 1.7%

GDP Price Index: Survey: 1.9% Actual: .4% Prior: 2.6%

Core PCE QoQ: Survey: 0.9% Actual: 1.1% Prior: 2.1%

US 4 Q GDP awaited

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 05:24 AM PST

The US GDP is awaited with expectation for 3% QoQ (annualized) with Personal Consumption expected at 2.4%. The 3% change would be the highest since June 2010. It is estimated that un employment declines when GDP is above the 2.5% region in the US.

Note US reports GDP on a annualized basis. So the change on a QoQ basis is extrapolated forward for the year.

Dollar decline continues today. Greece optimism. Better Italian bill auction cited.

Posted: 27 Jan 2012 04:54 AM PST