Monday, February 13, 2012

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

EURUSD retraces some of the London gains. Look at other major currency pairs

Posted: 13 Feb 2012 07:17 AM PST

EURUSD falls below 100 hour MA at 1.3247. Look for downside momentum

Posted: 13 Feb 2012 05:58 AM PST

The EURUSD has moved below the 100 hour MA at the 1.3247 level after spending the London morning session above this MA level. The market will now be looking for addtional downside momentum and for that MA to hold topside resistance.  The next minor target to get through is the 1.3231 level (lows from last weeks trade). Below that level is the 38.2% of the weeks move higher at the 1.32084.   Below that the 200 hour MA at the 1.3187 level is the next target (green line in the chart above).

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Feb.13.2012

Posted: 13 Feb 2012 05:46 AM PST

Good Morning:

The Greek sage continues:

Greek passed the newest austerity measures on Sunday.  The new measures must be implemented to ensure that Greece receives it’s 2nd round of bailout funds by next month.  These funds will be needed-as Greece has a large bond payment due in mid March 2012 (14 billion euros).
EU finance ministers will be meeting on Wednesday to sign off on the deal.
In the wake of the Greek vote-Euro Zone sovereign (Italy,Spain and Portuguese) debt yields are lower.

Today, President Obama will release the 2013 budget.  The early talk is that the budget does not include any significant cuts.
This will make this election year quite interesting-and it should set up a contentious battle with Republicans.

World equity markets and futures are higher today.

Oil, Gold and Silver are all higher too.

HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

Greek vote sends EURUSD higher. Japan GDP declines.

Posted: 13 Feb 2012 05:11 AM PST

The Overnight Review

Posted: 13 Feb 2012 05:06 AM PST

Market Commentary:  The Greek austerity package was approved over the weekend after an impassioned plea by PM Papademos just before the crucial vote. Now the next step  goes to the Eurozone finance ministers (set for Wednesday). They need to approve the cuts enacted by Greece which would clear the way for the next tranche of aid for Greece to be approved. However,
the next aid decision is not  expected until March.  The news of austerity approval  sent a reported 100,000 to the streets of Greece where rioting took place.  Also still to come is the private sector involvement negotiations which are still unresolved.  There is also a report due out on the Greek debt sustainability from the EU, IMF and ECB.  Making matters even more uncertain is whether Greece will implement the measures in their entirety, and the chance an election as early as April which has the potential of derailing all the efforts. Of course much also depends on the sustainability of the Greek economy to produce enough cuts and enough revenue to be self sustaining. The news of the vote approval, nevertheless has led to a rise in the EURUSD.  The pair is opening the NY session near the 100 hour MA.  This will likely be the bullish above/bearish below line in the sand for traders today as it stuggles with the news headlines.   In other news Japan GDP came out weaker than expectations (fell -0.6% vs -0.3% expected).  The Annualized GDP show a -2.3% decline versus expectations of -1.3%.  The Bank of Japan will be meeting today and again tomorrow and they could consider additional easing.  The USDJPY rose last week and has been consolidating at the top of the range. The 50% of the move down from the October high (post BOJ intervention high) comes in a tthe 77.77 level.  A move above opens the door for  a move toward the 78.06 level (200 day MA).  There is no economic news due out in the US or Canada today.

Greek PSI debt deal reported to be announced after the ECOFIN meeting on Wednesday

Posted: 13 Feb 2012 05:04 AM PST

This is attributed to sources.

Swiss Producer Price Index unchanged in Jan. from prior month, a 0.2% increse was expected

Posted: 13 Feb 2012 12:17 AM PST

Usd/Chf trades at .9121, up about 5 pips since release.

Eur/Usd threatens support 1.3235-40

Posted: 12 Feb 2012 11:13 PM PST

The pair just traded down to 1.3235. This is the same level of the 61.8% fibo (1.3235) of move down from 1.3283 to 1.3153. Also, the 100 hour M/A lies at 1.3238 for added support.

A break below may bring Eur/Usd to 1.3200, if the pair holds a test of the session high of 1.3261 is in the cards.

German Wholesale Price Index up 1.2% in January vs 0.2% expected

Posted: 12 Feb 2012 11:02 PM PST

Eur/Usd trades at 1.3240, not affected by release

The Forex Week Ahead: Webinar at 9:30 AM ET

Posted: 12 Feb 2012 09:10 PM PST

To Register for the webinar, click on the following link:

https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/218031649

2-13 Economic Calendar

Posted: 12 Feb 2012 08:56 PM PST

China Sets Yuan Reference Rate @6.2939

Posted: 12 Feb 2012 05:18 PM PST

Japans Q4 GDP Estimate

Posted: 12 Feb 2012 04:22 PM PST

Japan’s 4th quarter GDP numbers came in even softer than surveyed, while activity picked up in December based on the Tertiary Industry Index reading improving more than expected.

  • GDP Deflator – Survey:-1.7%   Actual:-1.6%   Prior:-2.2%
  • Nominal GDP (QoQ) – Survey:-0.7%   Actual:-0.8%   Prior:1.2%
  • GDP Annualized – Survey:-1.3%   Actual:-2.3%   Prior:5.6%
  • GDP- Survey:-0.3%  Actual:-0.6%   Prior:1.4%
  • Tertiary Industry Index – Survey:0.8%   Actual:1.4%   Prior:-0.8%

usd/hkd consolidates after breaking out of a downward wedge.

Posted: 12 Feb 2012 03:23 PM PST

usd/hkd consolidates after breaking out of a downward wedge and as long as it stays above the wedge it is a bullish signal.

Papademos Has Votes to Win Austerity But Count Continues

Posted: 12 Feb 2012 03:13 PM PST
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