Forex Market Updates & Commentary |  |
- Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.14.2012
- US Import Price Index and Current Account Both Lower
- Canadian Cap Utilization Rate Lower than Expected
- JPY continues decline. NZDUSD and AUSUSD decline. GBPUSD stuck.
- Canada Capacity Utilization Rate Due at 8:30AM
- US Current Account and Import Price Index Data Due at 8:30AM
- E/Z CPI y/y 2.7% vs 2.7% expected; Core CPI y/y 1.5% vs 1.5% expected
- E/Z Industrial production for Jan. up 0.2% vs 0.8% expected
- UK Claimant Count rises by 7,200 vs 5,000 expected
- 3-14 Economic Calendar
- Barclays says the downside risk to USD/JPY is “dramatically reduced”.
- EUR/USD finding short term trend line support
- usd/hkd breaks through this upward wedge.
- oil/usd break through this sideways channel.
- Barclays raises USD/JPY forecast to 90.00 in 6-12 months.
| Bobbys Corner-Open Market-March.14.2012 Posted: 14 Mar 2012 05:52 AM PDT
Out of the 19 banks that had to pass the Fed’s “stress test”-4 failed. They were SunTrust, Ally Financial (formally GMC), MetLife and Citigroup. The IEA (International Energy Agency) has warned of potential supply issues in the oil markets as Iranian oil exports are widely expected to dwindle as the year goes on. In US political news-Rick Santorum won primaries in Mississippi and Alabama -showing that he is the favorite Republican conservative. It will be almost impossible for Santorum to win the nomination-but he is sure giving Mitt Romney a run for his money. Most importantly-there is not a clear cut front runner in the Republican party to go up against President Obama. Asian equity markets were mixed-Europe is hi9gher-and US Futures are just barely holding on to positive numbers. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK |
| US Import Price Index and Current Account Both Lower Posted: 14 Mar 2012 05:32 AM PDT US Import Price Index and Current Account Both Lower Current Account Balance: Survey: -115.0B Actual: -124.1B Prior: -110.3B Revised: -107.6B Index(MoM): Survey: 0.6% Actual: 0.4% Prior: 0.3% Import Price Index(YoY): Survey: 5.8% Actual: 5.5% Prior: 7.1% |
| Canadian Cap Utilization Rate Lower than Expected Posted: 14 Mar 2012 05:30 AM PDT Canadian Cap Utilization Rate Lower than Expected Survey: 81.6%, Actual: 80.5%, Prior: 81.3%, Revised: 80.0% |
| JPY continues decline. NZDUSD and AUSUSD decline. GBPUSD stuck. Posted: 14 Mar 2012 05:05 AM PDT The USDJPY continued to move higher after breaking above key resistance at the 82.975 level. This is the 38.2% of the move down from the 2010 high and stalled the post Bernanke rally, but only briefly. In the asian session the price pushed higher and as NY enters it is trading near the highs. It is also pushing against channel trendline resistance on the hourly chart at the 83.577 level. There have been reports of earthquakes in Japan today which has helped contribute to the currencies weakness today. In the EU, Spanish banks rose to the most on record as continued pressure in the region has forced central bank emergency borrowing. In other news out of the Eurozone, YoY CPI came in a touch lower a 1.5%, Industrial production increased by a less than expected 0.2% (vs 0.5%). The Switzerland ZEW Expectation survey improved to 0.0 from -21.2 last month. The moves higher in the USDCHF/EURCHF was slowed off the news. The SNB meets tomorrow and will likely once again comment on the value of the EURCHF. THe expectation is they reiterate their desire to keep the EURCHF above the 1.2000 level. In the UK the jobless claims change came out at +7.2K jobs vs 5.0K expected. THe ILO Unemployment rate (3 mo.) came in as expected at 8.4%. The GBPUSD has traded above and below the 38.2% retracement AND 100 day MA for the 2nd straight day (at 1.5700) level. This is saying to me the market is unsure of the direction for this pair at the moment. The 1.5700 level should continue to act as a pivot for the pair with the bias bullish above the 1.5700 area and bearish below the 1.5700 area. On the topside the 1.5745-55 area is resistance today. Below a break of 1.5790 targets 1.5673 – the midpoint of the weeks range. The NZDUSD and the AUDUSD fell and both are looking to test the 38.2% of their recent moves higher. The AUDUSD 38.2% comes in at 1.0472 (NY is opening at that level). The NZDUSD has the 38.2% and 200 hour MA at the 0.8084/88 area. Chinese Wen commented overnight that there are imbalances in the real estate market. Both Aust and NZ are influeces by what happens in China. The low for the day came in at the 0.8112 so far. Today in the US Mortgage applications fell 2.4%. Import prices are expected to show a 0.6%. The Current Account Balance is expected to show a -115.0 B deficit. Canada releases Cap Util for 4Q with 81.6% expected. |
| Canada Capacity Utilization Rate Due at 8:30AM Posted: 14 Mar 2012 04:59 AM PDT |
| US Current Account and Import Price Index Data Due at 8:30AM Posted: 14 Mar 2012 04:57 AM PDT |
| E/Z CPI y/y 2.7% vs 2.7% expected; Core CPI y/y 1.5% vs 1.5% expected Posted: 14 Mar 2012 03:05 AM PDT Eur/Usd up slightly to 1.3065 on news. |
| E/Z Industrial production for Jan. up 0.2% vs 0.8% expected Posted: 14 Mar 2012 03:03 AM PDT |
| UK Claimant Count rises by 7,200 vs 5,000 expected Posted: 14 Mar 2012 02:38 AM PDT Total claims at 1,612,000. The unemployment rate remained at 8.4%. Average earnings index 3m/y rose 1.4% vs. 1.9% expected. Gbp/Usd dropped 30 points to 1.5702 on news. |
| Posted: 13 Mar 2012 08:25 PM PDT |
| Barclays says the downside risk to USD/JPY is “dramatically reduced”. Posted: 13 Mar 2012 06:25 PM PDT |
| EUR/USD finding short term trend line support Posted: 13 Mar 2012 06:24 PM PDT The pair is testing trend line support on the 15 minute chart; currently trading close to the lows. If support continues we look back towards 1.3104 as the topside target. We may see some more risk as the Nikkei trades in the positive. |
| usd/hkd breaks through this upward wedge. Posted: 13 Mar 2012 06:19 PM PDT
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| oil/usd break through this sideways channel. Posted: 13 Mar 2012 06:16 PM PDT
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| Barclays raises USD/JPY forecast to 90.00 in 6-12 months. Posted: 13 Mar 2012 05:32 PM PDT |
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