Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• US September ISM for Non Manufacturing rises to 50.9. Higher than expectations
• October 5th 2009 FXDD Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• $AUDUSD moves higher overnight. Speculation of a rate rise increases
• EURUSD moving toward support at 1.4589. Keep level in mind
• USDJPY move up a touch on Fujii comments. Stays contained by the 100 (89.73) and 200 hour MA (90.05)
• GBPUSD stays above Friday’s closing level. Watching 1.5959/64 in early NY trade.
• G7 fails to ignite the dollar. EURUSD stays within 100 and 200 hour MA for most of day.
• Eurozone Retail Sales
• UK Services PMI
• Sentix Investor Confidence
• Sterling/Yen trading near 100 hour M/A
• Euro-Zone PMI
• Eur/Usd flirting with 200 hour M/A
• 10-5 Economic Calendar
• ANZ Commodity Price Index

US September ISM for Non Manufacturing rises to 50.9. Higher than expectations Posted: 05 Oct 2009 07:04 AM PDT  BACKLOGS INDEX 51.5 AFTER 41.0  PRICES INDEX 48.8 AFTER 63.1  ORDERS INDEX 54.2 AFTER 49.9  INVENTORY INDEX 47.5 AFTER 43.0  EMPLOYMENT INDEX 44.3 AFTER 43.5 This is better than expectations and led to a spike  in the EURUSD  to 1.4624. The price has come down a bit, but the bounce off the 100 hour MA support at the 1.4589 is encouraging for the pair. Look for buyers on dips and furrther gains.

October 5th 2009 FXDD Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 05 Oct 2009 06:48 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

$AUDUSD moves higher overnight. Speculation of a rate rise increases Posted: 05 Oct 2009 06:19 AM PDT The AUDUSD moved higher today. There was speculation in the Sydney Morning Herald that a move back up to 3.25% was likely as a result of stronger labor conditions.  The spike higher in the AUDUSD took the pair back above the 200 hour MA and above the 100 hour MA.  Although the price has been able to maintain its bid above the 200 hour MA, the price has been above and below the 100 hour moving average for most of the day.  The 200 hour MA should continue to provide support at the 0.8717 level.  The 100 hour moving average comes in at the 0.8741.  A move back above this level should lead to some additional buying. Although an interest rate move should not be ignored and should lead to further gains, the question is “Is it priced in?” .  This increases the risk in the market and as a result, traders should lessen positions.   Looking at the longer term chart, the AUDUSD has retraced nearly 75% of the move down from the 2008 high when the interest rate spread between the Australian target and the US target Feds Fund rate was 5.25%.  The current spread is miuch lower at 2.75%.   By this measure a rise to 3.00% between Australian and US rates implies that the AUDUSD is too high relative to the value at the peak. However, it seems the US is not ready to tighten given the US employment report on Friday. In addition if the RBA does tighten, it is likely not the last tightening.  This will lead to an increased intererst rate spread which favors dip buying in the AUDUSD.  So although there may be a “buy the rumor, sell the fact” move, dips will likely be purchased as expectation of future rate increases are likely.  Of course if the RBA does not raise rates, the market is likely to be disappointed and a move lower should be the initial reaction at least.  Once again, risk increases. Be on alert.  The decision will take place tonight at 11:30 PM NYT.

EURUSD moving toward support at 1.4589. Keep level in mind Posted: 05 Oct 2009 05:39 AM PDT Support is at the 1.4589 level in early trade. Below that the 1.4570 level (close from Friday will be watched for further bearish confirmation.

USDJPY move up a touch on Fujii comments. Stays contained by the 100 (89.73) and 200 hour MA (90.05) Posted: 05 Oct 2009 05:20 AM PDT The new Finance Minister Fujii commented over the weekend that “appropriate steps” will be taken if necessary to curb the yen’s recent strength.  This helped give the USDJPY a little bid in todays trading but the pairs upside is still limited. The low for the trading day has come in at the 89.34.  The high has extended up to the 89.97.  The close last Friday came in at the 89.74 level.  The price has traded within the 100 hour and 200 hour moving average for the most part (one bar closed below the level) for the last 13 trading hours.  The 200 hour MA comes in at the 90.05 level currently. The 100 hour MA (blue line) comes in at the 89.73 level.  The 100 hour MA has been moving sideways late on the day on last Thursday. This has allowed the 200 hour MA to catch up to the market.  When the price and MA converge, this indicates a non trend market.  Often a move in one direction or the other will materialize.  We will be watching for a break.  A break of MA should signal the the directional bias.    A break on the topside should target the 90.38 level which is the midpoint of the move down from the Sept 21 high to the low on Sept 28th.  On the downside, a break below the 89.73 level would 89.35 next which is a level of support over the last few trading days (see chart below).

GBPUSD stays above Friday’s closing level. Watching 1.5959/64 in early NY trade. Posted: 05 Oct 2009 05:00 AM PDT The GBPUSD closed Friday at 1.5911.  The low reached 1.5919. The high extended to 1.6023.  At the top, the pair tested the 200 hour MA at the 1.6030 level, but found sellers against the key level (200 hour MA - green line - is now at the 1.6019 level).  The price is now back below the 100 hour MA which currently comes in at the 1.5959 level.  Look of sellers against this level in early NY trade. There is also resistance off the shorter term 5 minute chart at the 1.5964 area where the 100, 200 and 50% retracement is found.   A move above this area reverses the bearish bias.  On the downside,  the target would be the 1.5911  - the close from Friday.

G7 fails to ignite the dollar. EURUSD stays within 100 and 200 hour MA for most of day. Posted: 05 Oct 2009 04:43 AM PDT Despite some efforts by officials at the G7, the dollar failed to rise after the g7 meeting this weekend.  The EURUSD is actually higher - closing last week at the 1.4570 level. The  high today reached 1.4655.  The low today has been 1.4580.  The pair tested the 200 hour moving average (green line in the chart above), and broke through. However, the market could not close the hourly bar above the level and the price has settled below the moving average (currently at the 1.4639 level).  This level will be resistance for the pair this morning. ON the downside, the 100 hour MA at the 1.4589 level should provide some initial support.  A break of either “goal post” (100 hour MA or 200 hour MA) should solicit additional momentum in the direction of the break.  Look for some interim selling against the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.4628 level (currently).

Eurozone Retail Sales Posted: 05 Oct 2009 02:03 AM PDT Eurozone Retail Sales m/m came at -0.2%, stronger than the -0.5% expected. Y/y came in at -2.6%, weaker than the -2.4% expected. Mixed readings for the Euro as we see a slight bump in Eur/Usd, up about 7 pips to 1.4623.

UK Services PMI Posted: 05 Oct 2009 01:32 AM PDT Services PMI in the UK for September was 55.3; better than its forecast of 54.6 and August reading of 54.1. The EUR caught a light bid on the release.

Sentix Investor Confidence Posted: 05 Oct 2009 01:31 AM PDT The Euro-Zone’s Sentix Investor Confidence came in at -12.6, slightly worse than its forecast of -12 and prior reading of -14.6. The market showed a limited reaction to this release.

Sterling/Yen trading near 100 hour M/A Posted: 05 Oct 2009 01:18 AM PDT Gbp/Jpy has been trading near its 100 hour M/A. A break below could see the pair trade down to 142.55 which is the 50% Fibo support level. A break above could bring the pair back up to session highs around 143.90. With UK PMI coming out in next 10 minutes the pair could become volatile and break either to upside or downside depending on figure.

Euro-Zone PMI Posted: 05 Oct 2009 01:01 AM PDT PMI in the Euro-Zone for September came in slightly better than expected causing the EURO to catch a slight bid on the release. The details are as follows: PMI Services (Italy) - Survey: 47.2   Actual: 48.5   Prior: 46.4 PMI Services (France) - Survey: 52.2   Actual: 53.2   Prior: 52.2 PMI Services (Germany) - Survey: 52.2   Actual: 52.4   Prior: 52.2 PMI Services (Euro-Zone) - Survey: 50.6   Actual: 50.9   Prior: 50.6 PMI Composite (Euro-Zone) - Survey: 50.9   Actual: 51.1   Prior: 50.8

Eur/Usd flirting with 200 hour M/A Posted: 04 Oct 2009 10:08 PM PDT Eur/Usd has been trading near its 200 hour M/A (1.4645) for last couple of hours. It seems to be acting as a good source of resistance. Earlier in session the pair broke above its 100 hour M/A (1.4589) and then made its move up to current levels. If the 200 hour M/A holds look for the pair to trade back down to 1.4585-90 or its 100 hour M/A. A break above can see Euro trade up to 1.4675-80 coinciding with some old hourly highs. Upon the upcoming European it will be interesting to see what direction the pair will take.

10-5 Economic Calendar Posted: 04 Oct 2009 08:23 PM PDT

ANZ Commodity Price Index Posted: 04 Oct 2009 07:28 PM PDT The NZD ANZ Commodity Price Index came in higher in September at 6.8% after a 4.3% reading the prior month. The commodity and risk pairs have continued to move higher with energy prices, gold and equities.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• October 2nd 2009, FXDD Weekend Forex Report
• EURUSD wandering back down. Moves below 100 hour MA
• $USDCHF tests the 200 bar MA and midpoint of recent range at 1.0320 level.
• GBPUSD looks toward the 100 hour MA at 1.5946
• Oct 2 2009 Forex Midday Report
• USDJPY bounces back but has some upside resistance to maneuver through
• GBPUSD maintains price below 100 hour MA. Support approached at 1.5878.
• EURUSD on a wild ride. 1.4592 now suppport. 1.4657 topside resistance now.

October 2nd 2009, FXDD Weekend Forex Report Posted: 02 Oct 2009 02:11 PM PDT Click here to view the embedded video.

EURUSD wandering back down. Moves below 100 hour MA Posted: 02 Oct 2009 12:06 PM PDT The EURUSD is wandering back down below the 100 hour MA at the 1.4589 level.  The pair has not been below the 1.4578 level since moving sharply higher this morning.  A break below the 1.4578 would confirm additonal pressure is likely for the pair.

$USDCHF tests the 200 bar MA and midpoint of recent range at 1.0320 level. Posted: 02 Oct 2009 10:59 AM PDT The USDCHF is testing the midpoint of the range higher from the low of 1.0187 to the high at 1.0452.  The 200 hour MA comes in at the same level which should increase the importance of the level  Look for buyers against stops below the level with a break next targeting the 1.0288 level.

GBPUSD looks toward the 100 hour MA at 1.5946 Posted: 02 Oct 2009 10:35 AM PDT The GBPUSD is moving through trendline resistance and 38.2% retracement at the 1.5925 level.  Above is the 100 hour MA at the 1.5946 level.  The GBPUSD is being helped by a decline in the EURGBP.  The EURGBP has been rallying for most of the day, but has backed off in the last hour.

Oct 2 2009 Forex Midday Report Posted: 02 Oct 2009 09:30 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. The markets have settled down a bit after a very volatile first couple hours following the weaker than expected NFP report. The weekend approaches and position squaring to follow, so expect anything. However, it does seem the high low ranges may be in place.

USDJPY bounces back but has some upside resistance to maneuver through Posted: 02 Oct 2009 08:21 AM PDT The USDJPY moved lower this morning reaching a low of 88.59. The trendline support off the channel support came in at 88.41.  From the low, the price has rebounded back higher and just moved back through the 100 hour MA at the 89.72 level.  Further MA resistance comes in at the 90.15 level where the 200 hour MA is found.   There is also some trendline resistance at the 89.88 level.  On the downside, look for some support at the 89.31 which is the midpoint of the weeks high/low range.

GBPUSD maintains price below 100 hour MA. Support approached at 1.5878. Posted: 02 Oct 2009 08:05 AM PDT The GBPUSD has been able to maintain the price below the 100 hour MA this morning. The 100 hour moving average comes in at the 1.5347 level, the high in London reached the 1.5947 level.  The high post the employment number came in at the 1.5937.  The level also corresponds with the 50% retracement of the weeks range which had a Monday low at 1.5769 and a Wednesday high of 1.6125. Last Friday, the market closed at the 1.5928. With the price currently at the 1.5884 level, the price is down on the week.  The 1.5947 level will continue to remain a key level to watch for the GBPUSD on the topside.  On the downside, watch the 1.5878 level .  This is the midpoint of the days range and the current 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (blue line in the chart above).

EURUSD on a wild ride. 1.4592 now suppport. 1.4657 topside resistance now. Posted: 02 Oct 2009 07:46 AM PDT The EURUSD needless to say has had a wild ride down and then up. The Unemployment number was weak but the stock market - which seems to be leading the way - has recovered all losses now and is unchanged.  This has reversed the flight to quality bid into the dollar and yen and sent the EURUSD sharply higher. One can argue the reaction by the stocks but on a day like today, the offside traders are more of an influence sometimes and it seems that the offside traders may be fueling the fire. From a technical perspective, the fall in the EURUSD reached a low of 1.4480.  The 1.4447 target level pre-number was not breached. On the topside, the 100 hour MA at the 1.4592 was breached and it has led to higher levels.  The next target upside level against the 200 hour MA has been approached - 1.4657 MA vs a high of 1.4648 - and backed off. Perhaps this is the limit.  for the move.  Also above is the close from last Friday at 1.4669, the high for the week at 1.4679 and the 50% retracement of the move down from the September 23rd high at the 1.4662.    On the downside, a move back toward the 1.4592 100 hour MA level can not be ruled out.  This is always the key level to watch and today is no different.  Look for buyers against the level. I can bemoan the days trade/action.  The moves have been sporadic and seemingly controlled by those offside, rather than those onsides, but that is what happens on Unemployment days.  As the market calms down, the technical levels should become more in focus.  Keep an eye on the 1.4592 level as the day continues.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Factory Orders come in weaker than expectations
• USDCHF falls below the 100 hour MA and trendline support
• $EURUSD continues to squeeze higher. Looks to test resistance at 1.4577-92
• Oct 2 2009 Forex market update - NFP details
• GBPUSD falls but bounces. Watching 1.5860 area
• EURUSD falls on weaker NFP report, but rebounds.
• US NFP -263K Unemployment Rate 9.8%. Worse than expected. EURUSD falls. So does USDJPY as safe haven flows dominate.
• EURUSD hanging at trendline support as the NFP approaches. 1.4447 downside. 1.4592 watched above
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.2.2009
• Non Farm Payroll today. The look in pictures (and some words).
• Gbp/Usd continues lower
• European PPI
• BOE Housing Equity Withdrawal
• UK Construction PMI
• Gbp/Jpy finding it hard to break below support 141.88

Factory Orders come in weaker than expectations Posted: 02 Oct 2009 07:03 AM PDT New Orders                     -0.8% vs 1.4% last month  Ex-transportation       0.4% vs -0.6%  last month  Ex-defense                    -0.7%   vs 1.0%  last month  Ex-computers              -0.8%  vs  1.5%  last month Capital goods                 -6.3%   vs 8.2%  last month  Non-defense                 -7.6%   vs 7.0% last month   Excluding aircraft    -0.9%  vs -1.3% last month    3-mo. annualized     18.2%  vs 14.7% last month  Defense                           1.0%  vs 15.9% last month Durable Goods Orders fell by -2.6%.

USDCHF falls below the 100 hour MA and trendline support Posted: 02 Oct 2009 06:47 AM PDT The USDCHF fell below the 100 hour MA at the 1.0368 level and stops have been hit.  The level also corresponds with a trendline support. Watch the level.  If the market can not rebound within the hour, the downside has to be preferred.  A key level to watch to confirm the downside is the 1.0351 level. This is the 38.2%  retracement level of the move up from the September 23rd low. The market is being largely influenced by the stock market. The Dow has rebounded to down -47 from down triple digits. This is leading to the downward dollar bias.

$EURUSD continues to squeeze higher. Looks to test resistance at 1.4577-92 Posted: 02 Oct 2009 06:40 AM PDT The market continues to adjust to the NFP and traders seem to be getting sqeezed after the initial fal. The pair is approaching good resistnace at the weeks midpoint at the 1.4577 and the 100 hour MA at the 1.4592 level. Look for sellers with a stop above the 100 hour MA level.

Oct 2 2009 Forex market update - NFP details Posted: 02 Oct 2009 06:38 AM PDT Click here to view the embedded video. Confused by the market reaction to the NFP report? Watch the morning report.

GBPUSD falls but bounces. Watching 1.5860 area Posted: 02 Oct 2009 06:04 AM PDT The GBPUSD fell off the weaker number but has rebounded back up toward the 38.2% of the days range at the 1.5860 level. There is also some old low/highs at the 1.5665 level.  A move above these levels will likely solicit some additional short covering as the market continues to adjust to the number this morning.  Above is the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart at the 1.5885 level currently and falling.

EURUSD falls on weaker NFP report, but rebounds. Posted: 02 Oct 2009 05:45 AM PDT The 1.4447 is the high from August 2009.  This was the top during the consolidation this summer. Below that is the 1.4425 level which is the 38.2% Fibonacci level of the move up from the summer low of 1.3748 in June.  O On the topside, the 1.4546 level remains the trendline resistance above.  Before that level is the midpoint of the move down at the 1.4522 level and above that the 100 and 200 bar on the 5 minute chart at the 1.4538 area.

US NFP -263K Unemployment Rate 9.8%. Worse than expected. EURUSD falls. So does USDJPY as safe haven flows dominate. Posted: 02 Oct 2009 05:30 AM PDT Manufacturing Unemployment -51K Avg Earnings +0.1 Revisions Net loss of -13K In July August revisions. Health +19K Stocks are falling on the number.  The EURUSD is falling. The low from earlier today is being tested at 1.4502. The USDJPY is falling at the same time.  Watching the 89.35 level as upside resistnace.

EURUSD hanging at trendline support as the NFP approaches. 1.4447 downside. 1.4592 watched above Posted: 02 Oct 2009 05:21 AM PDT The EURUSD is hanging around the longer term trendline at the 1.4546 level.  I will look at this value as a one barometer for bullish or bearish bias.  If above bullish, if below bearish. Another important level to watch is the 100 hour MA. The price is currently below this value which comes in at the 1.4595 level.  A move higher but one that stays below the 100 hour MA should find sellers against the level.  A break above the MA, is bullish for the pair. On the downside, watch the 1.4447 level. This was the summer high price (August 5th 2009 high).  Also the 1.4427 which is the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the June 2008 low to the recent high price.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.2.2009 Posted: 02 Oct 2009 05:16 AM PDT Good Morning: World equity markets dropped , and commodities fell on speculation that rising unemployment will dampen the overall global recovery.  Raw material producers, banks, and retailers led the downward trend. Gold dropped below $1000/oz, and Oil is trading under $70/bar.  The JPY rose as concerns that rising loan defaults and unemployment will slow the recovery, most notably in the US.   On another note, the G-7 will meet this weekend in Istanbul, and the strength of the Euro will be a main topic of conversation. Oil:$69.73                            Gold;$998.60 Today’s data: NFP:                            exp: -180K      prior: -216K Unemp rate:            exp; 9.8%         prior: 9.7% Factory orders:     exp: 50.0         prior: 48.4 Have a GREAT DAY & WEEKEND–GOOD LUCK

Non Farm Payroll today. The look in pictures (and some words). Posted: 02 Oct 2009 05:00 AM PDT Last month the NFP lost 216K jobs which was the 20th straight decline in jobs.  Six of the last 7 months have shown improvement.  The estimate this month is for a change of -175K. However, there has been some last minute changes in the last 24 hours which has probably pushed that estimate up to something in the order of -225K to -250K.  This may have contributed to some of the weakness in the stock market yesterday. The changes were in reaction to things like the ISM and Intial Claims data which did not improve Month on Month and Week on Week.  The Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 9.8% from 9.7% last month.  This would be the highest reading in this since June 1983 whent the rate was last above 10% (at 10.1%).   In addition to those people who are declaring to be unemployed there are others who are also underemployed and/or who have taken themselves out of the people looking for work category. If you are not looking for work (i.e. discouraged worker) you are not unemployed or employed.  This figure is upwards of 16% which is a scary number.  Last month Construction and Manufacturing led the declines. Education and Health (this is Health care sector) was the only sector which showed a gain. That sector added 52k jobs.  The improvement in the magnitude of the decline in each sector was helped by less negative numbers in each group. Since the start of this current jobs recession, Manufacturing has lost 2 millon  jobs.  The Trade, Transportation and Utilities lost 1.58 millon  jobs. The Professional and Business Services sector including Temporary workers, has lost 1.509 millon  people have lost jobs and 1.430 million workers in the Construction industry have lost jobs.  The Health Care and Government industry is the only sectors which have added jobs since January 2008.  Health Care has added 751 thousand jobs.  and Government has added 118 thousand jobs.  With this months decline, it is likely that the number of people who have lost jobs will go over the 7 million mark.  To date since January 2008 when the first negative job number was announced 6,929,000 people have gone from employed to unemployed.  The 3 million jobs the Obama administration was to have added, do seem to be coming through but who knows what the numbers would be like without stimulus.  Perhaps it saved 3 million extra workers from being unemployed. Temporary Workers can be considered a leading indicator. They go down when employment is going down and may rebound before overall jobs increase.  It is easier to hire back the unemployed from the temporary ranks before making them full time.  Retail Trade jobs are an indicator of the mall traffic.  If jobs start showing up here, it should be a good sign for spending and retail confidence.  If it does not get better, the opposite may be occurring. Finally, risks increase with the NFP monthly release. When risk increases, the position sizes should be reduced.  It is also wise to let the initial reaction come and go.  Many a trader have been whipped around on the initial reaction.   Generally speaking a number which is bullish for stocks, will tend to lead to a lower dollar as investors look for the riskier assets.  If the stock market declines, the dollar gets stronger on a flight to quality bid.  This does not mean it will be case this month - much is dependent on flows in the market.

Gbp/Usd continues lower Posted: 02 Oct 2009 03:52 AM PDT Gbp/Usd has been offered since earlier release of HPI figures. The pair is currently trading at 1.5847. We may find support down at 1.5826 which is area of an old low from Sept. 29. A break below could send pair tumbling to 1.5770, low from Sept. 25. It will be interesting to see sterling’s next move as traders await US non-farm payroll figures at 8:30 EST

European PPI Posted: 02 Oct 2009 02:01 AM PDT PPI in the Euro-zone for August was slightly worse than expected. The details are as follows: Euro-Zone PPI (YoY) - Survey: -7.6%   Actual: -7.5%   Prior: -8.5% Euro-Zone PPI (MoM) - Survey: 0.4%   Actual: 0.4%   Prior: -0.8% The EUR, currently trading mid-range for the session, showed little reaction to the number.

BOE Housing Equity Withdrawal Posted: 02 Oct 2009 01:35 AM PDT The BOE’s Q2 Housing Equity Withdrawal was -7B; less than the prior number of -8.1B. The market showed no reaction to the reading.

UK Construction PMI Posted: 02 Oct 2009 01:35 AM PDT The Purchasing Manager’s Index in Great Britain for the month of September was 46.7: slightly worse than both its forecast of 48.1 and prior reading of 47.7. The market had limited reaction to this release while all eyes remain on the US non-farm payroll number due out in 4 hours.

Gbp/Jpy finding it hard to break below support 141.88 Posted: 02 Oct 2009 01:07 AM PDT Gbp/Jpy is having a hard time breaking the 61.8% Fibo support level of 141.88. It has flirted with this level several times this session. If it can break below it is very possible to see a steep decline down to 140.80 level. If the pair holds it should go back up to 142.60-70 level.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• ISM Index comes in lower than expected (54.0). Lower than last month at 52.9
• $USDCHF holds support at 38.2% retracement and 100 bar MA
• Oct 01 2009 Forex Market Update
• EURUSD moves above 1.4551 level but has additional resistance at 1.4576
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.1.2009
• GBPUSD is finding support at the 100 hour MA. Resistance at 1.5992. Then high for day.
• Initial Claims rise to 551K for the week but Continuing Claims fall. Spending 8 year high on stimulus measures.
• Jobless Claims, Personal Income and Spending due at 8:30
• Challenger announced layoffs fall 30.2% to the lowest level since March 2008
• EURUSD is down testing the support as NY enters
• Eurozone August Unemployment
• BoE Quarterly Credit Conditions Survey
• UK PMI
• European PMI figures

ISM Index comes in lower than expected (54.0). Lower than last month at 52.9 Posted: 01 Oct 2009 07:03 AM PDT ORDER BACKLOG INDEX 53.5 VS 52.5 (UP) PRICES-PAID INDEX 63.5 VS 65.0 (DOWN) INVENTORIES INDEX 42.5 VS 34.4 (UP) EMPLOYMENT INDEX 46.2 VS 46.4 (DOWN) PRODUCTION INDEX 55.7 VS 61.9 (DOWN) NEW ORDERS INDEX 60.8 VS 64.9 (DOWN) MANUFACTURING INDEX FALLS TO 52.6 FROM 52.9 (DOWN) Pending Home Sales meanwhile rose by a strong 6.4% for the month.

$USDCHF holds support at 38.2% retracement and 100 bar MA Posted: 01 Oct 2009 06:55 AM PDT The USDCHF moved up for most of the London trading day but is consolidating/correcting off the highs.  The correction has taken the price down 38.2% to the 1.0408 level.  The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart is at 1.0414. As long  as this level can hold, look for a continued momentum move to the upside with a break of the 1.0443/52 level needed to propel the pair higher.  The longer term topside target is the 1.0507 level which is the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the June high at 1.1022 to the recent lows at the 1.0188 level (see chart below). Should the support level break at the 1.0408 level, the downside would next target support at the 1.0395  level.   A move below 1.0381 targets the 1.0350 area where channel support can be found.

Oct 01 2009 Forex Market Update Posted: 01 Oct 2009 06:30 AM PDT New Video Pending

EURUSD moves above 1.4551 level but has additional resistance at 1.4576 Posted: 01 Oct 2009 06:06 AM PDT There is resistance at the 1.4576 level now  This is the 38.2% retracement of the days range and 100bar MA on the 5 minute chart.  Watch for support at 1.4551 now.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Oct.1.2009 Posted: 01 Oct 2009 05:50 AM PDT Good Morning: It was a tough morning for the Euro as the EUR/USD pair fell back into the 1.45 handle.  Comments by EU Commissioner Almunia expressed concerns about the appreciating Euro.  Mr. Almunia’s comments are similar to French President Sarkozy’s comments at the G-20 meeting in September.  This mat be an indication that European Union officials are becoming concerned regarding the relentless rise of the Euro. World equity markets are lower this morning-and US Futures are pointing to a lower opening this morning. Gold stays in the $1000/oz handle, and Oil is trading just under $70/bar. Oil:$69.82               Gold:$1004.70         Today’s data: Jobless Claims:       exp: 535K         prior: 530K  act: 551K Pers Income:           exp: .1%              prior: flat     act: .2% Pers Spending:        exp: 1.1%           prior: .2%     act: 1.3% At 10 Am: ISM Mfg:                    exp: 54.0         prior: 52.9 Const Spend:            exp: -.1%          prior: -.2% Pend Home Sales:  exp: 1%             prior: 3.2% Car Sales:                   exp: 9.5M     prior: 14.09M   HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

GBPUSD is finding support at the 100 hour MA. Resistance at 1.5992. Then high for day. Posted: 01 Oct 2009 05:43 AM PDT The GBPUSD has continued to find support at the 100 hour MA (currently at the 1.5943 level). In London, the MA was broken to the downside but could not could not maintain the downside momentum (low reached 1.5923).  In the last dip post the 8:30 data showed the price dipped down to the 1.5948. This level will need to be breached to turn the bias bearish.    On the topside, the pair has some small resistance at the 1.5976 level. A move above the 1.5976 level should lead to further momentum gains to the 1.5992.  A break above this level will target the high for the day at the 1.6024 level.

Initial Claims rise to 551K for the week but Continuing Claims fall. Spending 8 year high on stimulus measures. Posted: 01 Oct 2009 05:35 AM PDT Personal Spending rises by 1.3% and Income rose by 0.2%.  The Initial Claims rose to 551 K from 534K last week.  Continuing Claims fell to 6090K vs expectation of 6170K and a revised 6160K. Overall, the Spending increase was the highest MoM gain in 8 years.  Cash for clunkers program has helped as has other stimulus measures including lower interest rates and first time home purchase rebate seem to be helping.

Jobless Claims, Personal Income and Spending due at 8:30 Posted: 01 Oct 2009 05:24 AM PDT The Initial Claims are expected to show a small gain to 535K from 530K. The Continuing Claims are expected to rise to 6170K from 6138K last week. Personal Spending for August is expected to rise by 1.1% while Income is expected to rise by a less 0.1%. When spending increases more than incomes, the savings rate declines and normally suggests the spending can not be maintained.  So although this would be positive, it might be at the expense of future spending.  Nevertheless, stimulus from spending is often needed to spur on business confidence and this in turn may prompt businesses to hire new workers which does create income growth.  In either case, expect little initial reaction off the release.

Challenger announced layoffs fall 30.2% to the lowest level since March 2008 Posted: 01 Oct 2009 05:16 AM PDT The amount of job cuts announced in September fell by 30.2%.  The total of cuts fell to 66,404 which is the lowest level since March 2008.  This is positive news and suggests the jobs situation is indeed improving.  The EURUSD has gained a little off the news as the market is trying to decide if good news is good for the EURO (Risk taking and global economy improves) or does it mean the US is closer to tightening which should benefit the dollar.  So in these circumstances where fundamentals are confused, it is best to follow the technical picture.  That continues to have a negative bias for currecny pairs like the EURUSD.  A move above the 1.4551 level gives the pair a more even bias, but downside, is still favored until the price moves above the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart.

EURUSD is down testing the support as NY enters Posted: 01 Oct 2009 04:35 AM PDT The old breakout trendline on the daily chart is being breached at the 1.4544 level and is likley to lead to further downward pressure for the EURUSD this morning.  The low yesterday came in at 1.4527.  A break of this level will next look to old lows from Sep 10th (see chart below) at the 1.4502 level.   A break of that level would target the  1.4447 level which is the old high from August 5th. Finally, the 38.2% retracement from the move up from the June 16th low to the high reached in September comes in at the 1.4425 level. On the topside a move back above the 1.4551, the prior low for the day, would look to target the 100 bar MA which is falling and currently at the 1.4581 level. This level also corresponds with the 38.2% retracement level of the move down today.  The bias remains to the downside. Look for rebounds to be sold.

Eurozone August Unemployment Posted: 01 Oct 2009 02:03 AM PDT Eurozone August Unemployment inline with estimates at 9.6%. This is the highest reading on record , 0.1% higher than prior months 9.5%.

BoE Quarterly Credit Conditions Survey Posted: 01 Oct 2009 01:38 AM PDT BoE quraterly survey shows corporate lending spreadsto narrow in Q4. House price prospectsexpected to help credit supply. Unsecured consumer spreads broadly unchanged. The survey findings helped sterling rebound from bad PMI figures just minutes prior.

UK PMI Posted: 01 Oct 2009 01:34 AM PDT UK September Manufacturing PMI came in at 49.5, weaker than the 50.2 expected. The pound got hit across the board on bad number as Gbp/Usd traded down to 1.5935 before rebounding to 1.5960 , still off from pre-number levels.

European PMI figures Posted: 01 Oct 2009 01:14 AM PDT Italian PMI Manufacturing 47.6 vs. 45.2 expected. French Final PMI Manufacturing  53.0 vs. 52.5 expected. This is the highest reading since Feb. 2008. German Final PMI Manufacturing 49.6 vs. 49.6 expected. Eurozone Final PMI Manufacturing 49.3 vs. 49.0 expected. Overall good numbers for Euro as we continue to see Eur/Usd rebound off earlier lows currently trading at 1.4585.

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