Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Patient sellers find the 100 hour MA too hard to resist
• GBPUSD eyes the 38.2% retracement level
• EURUSD moves up initially then comes back off
• Canada Building Permits Have Very Strong Number, 2.1% VS Prior Number of -5.0%
• US Nonfarm Payrolls Rise, Unemployment Falls
• NFP rises by 117 K. UneEmployment falls 9.1%
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.5.2011
• GBPUSD above and below 100 day MA
• EURUSD targets outlined through NFP report
• Canada Building Permits Expecting a Negative Number
• US Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate Due at 8:30AM
• Canada Unemployment Rate Drops to 7.20% For The First Time Since Feb 09′
• German industrial production (June) -1.1% vs. 0.1% expected.
• S&P affirms Ireland’s sovereign ratings; outlook stable.
• Italian prelim GDP (q/q) 0.3%.

Patient sellers find the 100 hour MA too hard to resist Posted: 05 Aug 2011 06:44 AM PDT The EURUSD moved higher after holding support against the 100 bar MA and 50% retracement area on the 5 minute chart. From there the price surged but found willing sellers against the 100 hour MA at the 1.4227 level (high reached 1.4231).  The price is now back below the 1.4200 level.   Now watching the 1.4187 level, 1.4176  and 1.41634 for support

GBPUSD eyes the 38.2% retracement level Posted: 05 Aug 2011 06:13 AM PDT

EURUSD moves up initially then comes back off Posted: 05 Aug 2011 05:40 AM PDT The EURUSD shot up on the better than expected NFP (relief move reversing the risk off trade). The price has moved back and has been able to stay above the 38.2% of the move up from the low reached in the Far East session . That level comes in at teh1.4154. Staying above this level will be needed to keep the trade in place. If the price moves below this level, there could/should be a change in sentiment on the disappointment to reverse the losses from yesterday higher. Watch the action at this level. UPDATE.  The price ahs moved below the 38.2% and will not target the 50% and the 100 bar MA at the 1.4135. Below that the 1.4116 level is where the 200 bar MA and the 61.8% of the days range.   This is also the trendline from the hourly chart.

Canada Building Permits Have Very Strong Number, 2.1% VS Prior Number of -5.0% Posted: 05 Aug 2011 05:32 AM PDT

US Nonfarm Payrolls Rise, Unemployment Falls Posted: 05 Aug 2011 05:32 AM PDT Change in Nonfarm Payrolls:   Survey:  85K     Actual:  117K    Prior:  18K      Revision: 46K Change in Private Payrolls:  Survey: 113K    Actual: 154K     Prior:  57K     Revised: 80K Change in Manufacturing Payrolls:  Survey: 10K   Actual:  24K   Prior:  6K     Revised: 11K Unemployment Rate:  Survey:  9.2%     Actual:  9.1%     Prior:  9.2%       Avg Hourly Earning (MoM) All Emp:    Survey:  0.2%     Actual: 0.4%      Prior:  0.0%          Avg Hourly Earning (YoY) All Emp:    Survey:  1.9%      Actual: 2.3%      Prior:  1.9%       Avg Weekly Hours All Employees:    Survey:  34.3      Actual: 34.3           Prior:  34.3

NFP rises by 117 K. UneEmployment falls 9.1% Posted: 05 Aug 2011 05:30 AM PDT Private payrolls 154K vs 113 expected . Manufacturing 24K vs 10 K.  Revisions were also higher with NFP revised higer at 46K vs 18K and Private Payroll 80k vs 57K. Overall, a better than expected report which may appease the stock market. Nevertheless the  numbers are not consistent with an economy expanding.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.5.2011 Posted: 05 Aug 2011 05:29 AM PDT Good Morning: FX markets are very nervous ahead of this morning’s NFP and employment data. The consensus is for non Farm Payrolls to be up 85K.  This may not be enough to have the 9.2% unemployment rate fall. After yesterday’s stock market drop, the markets are close to a panic mode.  Asia and European equity markets were and are being battered also.  Asian bourses were down as much as 4 %, while Europe is currently off about 1%. The main concern is that any US recovery seems to be a faltering, as US consumers continue to put the brakes on spending.  The stimulus packages that were put into place seem not to have gotten much traction, and the question arises that if there was another round of QE-would it really help? Europe is also a mess, with their debt problems growing-not fading.  Italy is now on the fore front of the debt issue in the EU.  The ECB continues to pump money into the system, and are busy buying  some sovereign bonds.  It seems that the ECB is focusing their buying to Irish and Portuguese bonds-not extending their bond pruhasing to Italy and Spain at this tim-Confusing isn’t it! I wish you ar GREAT D

GBPUSD above and below 100 day MA Posted: 05 Aug 2011 05:27 AM PDT The GBPUSD is above and below the 100 day MA at the 1.6259 level today. There is also the 61.8% retracement at the  1.6252 and trendline support at the low for the day.

EURUSD targets outlined through NFP report Posted: 05 Aug 2011 05:24 AM PDT The EURUSD has resistance at 1.42065 and then the 1.4231 where the 100 hour MA is currently located.   ON the downside, the trendlines in the chart above are the initial targets to get through. The top trendline comes in at the 1.4117 level. Below that the low from yesterday at 1.4054 and the trendline at 1.4035 are the next targets.

Canada Building Permits Expecting a Negative Number Posted: 05 Aug 2011 04:38 AM PDT

US Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate Due at 8:30AM Posted: 05 Aug 2011 04:28 AM PDT

Canada Unemployment Rate Drops to 7.20% For The First Time Since Feb 09′ Posted: 05 Aug 2011 04:02 AM PDT

German industrial production (June) -1.1% vs. 0.1% expected. Posted: 05 Aug 2011 03:05 AM PDT

S&P affirms Ireland’s sovereign ratings; outlook stable. Posted: 05 Aug 2011 02:22 AM PDT Says Ireland’s strong political consensus in favour of fiscal consolidation and sees it hitting 3% of GDP deficit target by 2015.

Italian prelim GDP (q/q) 0.3%. Posted: 05 Aug 2011 02:15 AM PDT

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• USDJPY moves higher on BOJ intervention
• EURUSD look at the charts
• Charting the Majors with James Chen – Starting Soon at 9:30 AM U.S. ET
• ECB’s Trichet Speaking
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.4.2011
• US Jobless Claims Rise Back To 400K, Better Than Expectations
• EU’s Barroso
• German factory orders (m/m) 1.8% vs. -0.2% expected.
• USD/JPY reaches 80.00
• Shirakawa says not aiming policy at specific forex levels.
• Japanese Eco. Minister Yosano says need a debate on currencies at G7 and G20 level.
• BOJ Intervention
• BOJ keeps key overnight rate between 0-0.1% and expands asset purchases by 5 TRLN JPY.
• 8-4 Calender
• Forex Traders Course Thursday August 4 2011 4:00PM – Special Class

USDJPY moves higher on BOJ intervention Posted: 04 Aug 2011 07:12 AM PDT Bank of Japan intervenes to stop the rise in the JPY (fall in the USDJPY) but this time (versus when they intervened in March), they do not have the full support of the rest of the world. As a result, the impact should not be as great.  Looking at the 5 minute chart the 38.2% of the spike higher will be watched by traders to see if buyers emerge against the level.  The threat of additional intervention should keep the pairs sellers subdued (or at least fearful). Looking at the daily chart, the sharp move higher took the price through the 38.2% of the move down from the April high at 85.509 to the low at 76.283. However the price did find sellers against the trendline off the same high price at the 80.31 level (high reache 80.22). This trendline will need to be breached above to next target the 100 day MA at the 81.00 area.  In March, the day after  the sharp decline, the price bottomed at the 78.81 level. This level  will be eyed below.

EURUSD look at the charts Posted: 04 Aug 2011 07:01 AM PDT The daily chart targets the 1.4103 level (61.8% of the move up from the July low.  ON the 5 minute chart the price fell below channel support for the second time at 1.4148.  Stay below this level and bearish bias continues. Move above back into the channel and should see some profit taking, with 1.4206 a target.  The price needs to stay in the channel however and not break back below the trendline.

Charting the Majors with James Chen – Starting Soon at 9:30 AM U.S. ET Posted: 04 Aug 2011 06:05 AM PDT Please join us today (Thursday, August 4) at 9:30 AM U.S. ET for FXDD’s Charting the Majors with James Chen. This free webinar will feature the current technical outlook on the major currency pairs in an interactive and educational session. Please click here to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/499858577 .

ECB’s Trichet Speaking Posted: 04 Aug 2011 05:37 AM PDT Says: Moderate liquidity remains ample Recent data indicate some economic slowdown Economy will show moderate expansion Price gains must not spark broad-based-pressures Inflation expectations must remain firm Short term rates remain low ECB monetary stance remains accommodative ECB will conduct liquidity providing LTRO over 6 months Operations will be announced on August 9th Operation will mature on March 1, 2012 ECB will conduct 3 month LTROS at fixed rate Underlying pace of growth remains positive Economic activity expected to be dampened somewhat Inflation risks remain on upside Downside risks to growth may have intensified Dollar is good for the world

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.4.2011 Posted: 04 Aug 2011 05:21 AM PDT Good Morning: We start the morning off by noting that both the ECB and Bank of England left their benchmark interest rates unchanged today. This was highly expected even though the UK economy continues to show signs of  faltering , and the EU has a debt  crisis that is not going away anytime fast. In other FX news-the Bank of Japan joined the Swiss National Bank by staging an intervention in the forex markets that drove the USD/JPY higher -getting the pair over 80.oo for the first time since July.  The pair has since moved back into the 79 handle.  The BOJ stated that they will continue with their QE program by adding 10 Trillion yen to their monetary policy.  With the JPY trading below the key 80.00 level, Japanese exports (the bulk of their economy) get hurt, and erode corporate profits. With data showing that the US economy is lackluster at best-the powers to be at the Federal Reserve, along with think tanks around the world, are examining to see if the US economy is heading back into recession (even though many think that we never got out of the last recession). Economist will continue to examine the data-and tomorrow’s employment figures will be a major factor in determining the state of the US economy. Equity futures are much lower again this morning-while gold is higher again> HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

US Jobless Claims Rise Back To 400K, Better Than Expectations Posted: 04 Aug 2011 04:00 AM PDT Jobless Claims:  Survey: 405K  Actual: 400K  Prior: 398K  Revised: 401K Continuing Claims:  Survey: 3700K  Actual: 3730K  Prior: 3703K  Revisad: 3720K

EU’s Barroso Posted: 04 Aug 2011 03:37 AM PDT Sent a letter to EU colleagues on Italy and Spain, and said Euro-area financial stability must be safe guarded. Eurozone c no longer only in periphery. Need to see how to improve EFSF and ESM effectiveness. July 21 decisions not having intended effect on markets. Urges a rapi re-assessment of EFSF and ESM.

German factory orders (m/m) 1.8% vs. -0.2% expected. Posted: 04 Aug 2011 03:00 AM PDT

USD/JPY reaches 80.00 Posted: 04 Aug 2011 02:10 AM PDT Well, 79.99- close enough! Since touching the 80 handle the pair has come off; now trading around 79.50.

Shirakawa says not aiming policy at specific forex levels. Posted: 04 Aug 2011 12:52 AM PDT

Japanese Eco. Minister Yosano says need a debate on currencies at G7 and G20 level. Posted: 04 Aug 2011 12:48 AM PDT Today’s FX action should ahve an impact on speculation in the near term. Will keep watching markets. BOJ moves are appropriate and timely.

BOJ Intervention Posted: 03 Aug 2011 11:31 PM PDT The JPY continues to weaken against the majors after the Bank of Japan intervened in the foreign-exchange market for the first time since March (when the G7 jointly sold the yen) in order to dull gains in the currency that were threatening exporter profits and the nations recovery. Finance Minister Noda noted that the intervention was unilateral. In Tokyo, Credit Suisse Group AG chief currency strategist, Koji Fukaya, noted that "they may continue to intervene until the yen weakens beyond 80", which appears may be the case if USD/JPY continues to trade on session highs. Today was the third time we have seen the BOJ intervene since it ended its hands-off approach which ended in Sept. 2010. It appears that the pair is currently testing possible daily resistance at 79.483; the 61.8% retracement level on the move from July 8th highs t

BOJ keeps key overnight rate between 0-0.1% and expands asset purchases by 5 TRLN JPY. Posted: 03 Aug 2011 10:05 PM PDT The rate decision was unanimous. Economy steadily recovering. Expands 6 month credit lending program. Still sees large amount of uncertainty. Fluctuation in FX markets may deter the recovery. CPI revision means may take prices to stabilize. Determined need to support economy through policy steps.

8-4 Calender Posted: 03 Aug 2011 09:03 PM PDT

Forex Traders Course Thursday August 4 2011 4:00PM – Special Class Posted: 03 Aug 2011 12:54 PM PDT Forex Traders Course this Thursday August 4 2011 4:00 PM – Register now

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Mirror Trader Automated Forex Trading class TODAY at 11:00 AM- ON AIR NOW
• ISM Data Down Slightly
• US Factory Orders & ISM Data at 10AM
• Ask the Chartist with James Chen – Webinar STARTING SOON at 10:00 AM ET
• EU’s Barroso on the Wires
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.3.2011
• ADP Employment Change Rises
• Challenger Job Cuts Rose 60% in July from June, Highest Since March of 2010 Coming in at 66,414
• US ADP Employment Change Data Due at 8:15AM
• Moody’s downgraded Athens to Caa3 from Caa1; outlook developing.
• Euro continuing higher
• Pimco’s El-Erian says Portugal and ireland are likely to need more aid.
• S&P says Eurozone growth prospects are weakening.
• UK services PMI (m/m) 55.4 vs. 53.2 expected.
• Eurozone services PMI (m/m) 51.6 vs. 51.4 expected.

Mirror Trader Automated Forex Trading class TODAY at 11:00 AM- ON AIR NOW Posted: 03 Aug 2011 07:45 AM PDT Mirror Trader Automated Forex Trading class Wednesday at 11:00 AM with Oz Golan and Shawn Powell. Learn how this tool can do the trading for you. Free to attend online. Register now and join the live class ON AIR NOW

ISM Data Down Slightly Posted: 03 Aug 2011 07:01 AM PDT ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite:  Survey: 53.5   Actual: 52.7   Prior: 53.3   Revised: Composite Index       52.7 vs 50.9 last month Business Activity     56.1 vs 52.3 last month New Orders            51.7 vs 49.2 last month Backlog of Orders *   44.0 vs 45.0 last month Supplier Deliveries*  50.5 vs 50.4 last month Inventory Change *    56.5 vs 49.3 last month Employment            52.5 vs 53.5 last month Factory Orders:    Survey: -0.8%   Actual: -0.8%   Prior: 0.8%   Revised: 0.6% Durable goods revision comes out higher.

US Factory Orders & ISM Data at 10AM Posted: 03 Aug 2011 06:25 AM PDT

Ask the Chartist with James Chen – Webinar STARTING SOON at 10:00 AM ET Posted: 03 Aug 2011 06:20 AM PDT Please join us today (Wednesday, August 3) at 10:00 AM ET for FXDD’s Ask the Chartist with James Chen. This free webinar will feature answers to questions from the audience regarding forex trading, technical analysis, and trading strategies. Please click here to register: https://www1.gotomeeting.com/register/696735857 .

EU’s Barroso on the Wires Posted: 03 Aug 2011 06:16 AM PDT Says: Bond market developments source of ‘deep concern’ Bond market developments ‘clearly unwarented’ Spain, Italy, taking steps to reinforce economies Investor concern of systemic capacity of Euro area Euro leaders recognize systemic nature of crisis Concern of capacity of Euro area to handle crisis Urging national governments to act without delay

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.3.2011 Posted: 03 Aug 2011 05:36 AM PDT Good Morning: The Swiss National Bank seems to have had enough of the recent strength of the CHF, and they came out swinging as they cut rates in a surprise move to the marketplace.  The franc fell after the announcement, as the Swiss government is concerned that the strength of the franc will undermine the county’s economic recovery. Analysts feel that the rise in the CHF will only be temporary-as the franc is used as a refuge in uncertain times.  Until the nervousness in the markets slow, (which there is no sign of in the immediate future), the franc will continue to attract investors.  The JPY also lost ground versus the Euro as the Bank of Japan has indicated that they will add money to the system to stop the rise in the currency.  Concerns that the rise in the JPY will hamper any economic recovery, the nations leaders have stated that they are strongly commited to helping their counrties export business expand. After the passing and signing of the US debt limit bill yesterday-Moody’s and Fitch affirmed the USA’a AAA rating, but warned that downgrades were possible in the future if they see no action to stem the deficit, and/or  continued weakening in the US economy.  Equity futures are higher at this time.  Gold and silver rallied-with Gold hitting another high overnight. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

ADP Employment Change Rises Posted: 03 Aug 2011 05:16 AM PDT Employment Change:  Survey: 100K   Actual: 114K   Prior: 157K   Revision:145K July vs June 2011 ADP Employment:  108,764 vs 108,650 Level Change:  114 vs 145 USD/JPY Trading higher on the news.

Challenger Job Cuts Rose 60% in July from June, Highest Since March of 2010 Coming in at 66,414 Posted: 03 Aug 2011 04:32 AM PDT

US ADP Employment Change Data Due at 8:15AM Posted: 03 Aug 2011 04:13 AM PDT

Moody’s downgraded Athens to Caa3 from Caa1; outlook developing. Posted: 03 Aug 2011 02:59 AM PDT

Euro continuing higher Posted: 03 Aug 2011 02:58 AM PDT In the earlier post, following the SNB comments, our bullish short term target was 1.42356. The pair is now trading in the ballpark of 1.4323. Now, from an hourly perspective we see that the pair re-tested hourly resistance at 1.42809 with the previous candle stick but has continued to rally; now testing the 61.8% on the move from Monday’s high to yesterday’s low. The next significant level higher is the 200 hour moving average at 1.43535.

Pimco’s El-Erian says Portugal and ireland are likely to need more aid. Posted: 03 Aug 2011 02:48 AM PDT

S&P says Eurozone growth prospects are weakening. Posted: 03 Aug 2011 01:35 AM PDT

UK services PMI (m/m) 55.4 vs. 53.2 expected. Posted: 03 Aug 2011 01:35 AM PDT Sterling slightly firmer on the release.

Eurozone services PMI (m/m) 51.6 vs. 51.4 expected. Posted: 03 Aug 2011 01:01 AM PDT

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Gold Reaches For Even Loftier Levels
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.2.2011
• US Data Weaker
• US PCE, Personal Income & Spending Data Due at 8:30AM
• US Treasury Secretary Geithner on the Wires
• EU says its keeping an eye on financial markets at the moment – confident Spain will take all necessary steps.
• EU’ Van Rompuy
• EOCD sees Greek debt at 100% of GDP by 2035 under baseline scenario, with below target privatization.
• Eurozone PPI (June) 0.0%; worse than the 0.1% survey.
• UK construction PMI (m/m) 53.5 vs. 53.0 expected.
• Euro rebounding modestly after selling through most of the session
• Swiss PMI (July) 5.3 vs. 52.2 expected.
• Swiss retail sales (June) 7.4% vs. -4.1% previous.
• Japan’s fin. min. says they will not talk about JPY rate range for intervention.

Gold Reaches For Even Loftier Levels Posted: 02 Aug 2011 07:03 AM PDT Gold (daily chart) as of Tuesday (8/02/2011) has once again established yet a new all-time high, which has been occurring regularly for the past three weeks, this time around the 1640 price region. This occurs within the context of a very clear and strong bullish trend on multiple timeframes — long-term, medium-term, as well as short-term. The 1635 price region, which price has just slightly surpassed, represents the 161.8% Fibonacci extension target of the last major bearish correction (from the early-May previous all-time high at around 1575 to the early-July correction low around 1478). Now that price action has reached its upside target and established yet a new all-time high, another correction could be impending before a potential resumption of the strong overall bullish trend. Downside support within the context of the current uptrend resides around the previous 1575 all-time high price region. In the event of a resumption of the current trend, a breakout above the new 1640 high could go on to begin targeting further uncharted upside around the 1730 price region, which represents the 261.8% Fibonacci extension of the noted last major bearish correction. (Click on chart to enlarge. Forex chart key: price on 1st pane, Stochastics 14,3,3 on 2nd pane; horizontal support/resistance levels in black; uptrend lines in green; downtrend lines in red; 50-period simple moving average (SMA) in orange; 100-period SMA in brown; 200-period SMA in dark blue; Fibonacci levels in magenta.) James Chen, CTA, CMT Director of Technical Research and Education FXDD

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.2.2011 Posted: 02 Aug 2011 06:05 AM PDT Good Morning: With the debt ceiling deadline looming-the US Senate is set to vote on the bill at noon today.  On Monday the House of Representatives voted and passed the bill even though liberal Democrates and conservative tea party members had their seperate idealologies. The agreement falls short of the savings that both the Republicans and the White House were looking for. This agreement must get to President Obama’s desk today to eleviate a US default. Even with this agreement-there is no guarantee that the USA’s AAA rating will remain steady-and we may see a downgrade-as the rating agencies have called for savings of over $4 trillion over 10 years-far more than the $2.4 trillion offered in this package. Unfortunately, just at the time that the faltering US economy needs another round of stimulus (as the last few rounds have not spurred the US economy enough)-the federal government will be looking for continued spending cuts, along with the need to increase taxes in the next decade.  This is not a good formula for economic growth-and I think that the near term impact will be minimal- but within 1 year the US will notice  a drop in growth, as stimulus funds dry up-and spending cuts increase. Dow futures lower at this time.  Gold and silver are higher, oil is a touch softer at HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

US Data Weaker Posted: 02 Aug 2011 05:31 AM PDT Personal Income:   Survey: 0.2%     Actual:  0.1%  Prior: 0.3%   Revised: 0.2% June vs. May 2011 Personal Income:  0.1% vs 0.2% Compensation:  0.0% vs 0.2% Wage & Salary:  0.0% vs 0.2% Disposable Inc:  0.1% vs 0.2% Personal Spending:   Survey: 0.1%    Actual: -0.2%  Prior: 0.0%  Revised: 0.1% PCE Deflator:    Survey: 2.6% Actual:  2.6% Prior: 2.5% PCE Core(MoM):     Survey: 0.2% Actual:  0.1%  Prior: 0.3% PCE Core(YoY):    Survey:  1.4% Actual:  1.3% Prior:  1.2%

US PCE, Personal Income & Spending Data Due at 8:30AM Posted: 02 Aug 2011 04:27 AM PDT

US Treasury Secretary Geithner on the Wires Posted: 02 Aug 2011 04:23 AM PDT Says: ‘We don’t have unlimited resources’ Deal wont cost U.S. jobs Economy is slower than thought Confidence was damaged Doesn’t see risk of economy slipping back to recession ‘Not my judgement’ on U.S. credit rating Doesn’t know if credit downgrade more likely U.S. strength is long-term strength He hasn’t made decision whether to leave post

EU says its keeping an eye on financial markets at the moment – confident Spain will take all necessary steps. Posted: 02 Aug 2011 03:14 AM PDT Adds that a rescue plan for Spain is not on the table. EUR firmer in recent trade; EUR/USD currently at the 1.4200 handle.

EU’ Van Rompuy Posted: 02 Aug 2011 02:31 AM PDT Greek debt still  high however not exceptional. Private sector involvement limited to Greece. Ireland and Portugal are well on the path to recovery. EFSF has sufficient resources for new tolls. Eurozone states ready if more resources are needed. He is confident national Parliaments will approve new tools. Markets are not pricing Spain and Italy risks on fundamentals.

EOCD sees Greek debt at 100% of GDP by 2035 under baseline scenario, with below target privatization. Posted: 02 Aug 2011 02:29 AM PDT Greece must step up structural reforms, urgently improve tax collection. Banks should envisage mergers with foreign banks.

Eurozone PPI (June) 0.0%; worse than the 0.1% survey. Posted: 02 Aug 2011 02:01 AM PDT EUR slightly softer on the release.

UK construction PMI (m/m) 53.5 vs. 53.0 expected. Posted: 02 Aug 2011 01:30 AM PDT

Euro rebounding modestly after selling through most of the session Posted: 02 Aug 2011 01:01 AM PDT After receeding against the USD following news that an agreement has finally been reached over the US debt ceiling, the EUR/USD rebounded trading back up until finding resistance from the 38.2% retracement line on the move from yesterday’s high to low. Since then, the pair has retreated over fears of a double-dop downturn on Italy. After making a fresh low of 1.41572 we are back re-testing the lows around 1.41838; if support holds we look back to 1.42174 (an old low). From a daily perspective we find additional support here at the 50.0% line on the move from July 12th lows to the high on the 27th.

Swiss PMI (July) 5.3 vs. 52.2 expected. Posted: 02 Aug 2011 12:31 AM PDT The CHF continues to decine following the release.

Swiss retail sales (June) 7.4% vs. -4.1% previous. Posted: 02 Aug 2011 12:16 AM PDT

Japan’s fin. min. says they will not talk about JPY rate range for intervention. Posted: 01 Aug 2011 11:34 PM PDT

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• EURUSD falls sharply. Below 100 day MA now
• Construction Spending Improves, ISM Falls
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.1.2011
• US ISM & Construction Spending Data Due at 10AM
• Eurozone unemployment rate (June) 9.9%; as expected.
• UK manufacturing PMI (July) 49.1 vs. 51.0 expected.
• Italian unemployment (June) 8.0% vs. 8.1% expected.
• Eurozone manufacturing PMI (July) 50.4; as expected.
• Igarashi, from the Japanese ministry if finance, says current FX situation is more USD weakness than JPY strength.
• Italian manufacturing PMI (July) 50.1 vs. 49.0 expected.
• A researcher at China’s ministry of commerce says the US debt deal will not restore confidence in treasury’s or the USD.
• 8-1 Calender
• Reported Debt Ceiling Deal Reached
• The Forex Week Ahead from FXDD

EURUSD falls sharply. Below 100 day MA now Posted: 01 Aug 2011 07:37 AM PDT The EURUSD has moved below the 100 day MA today at the 1.4335 level and fell sharply to the 38.2% retracement of the move up from the July low to the end of July high (at 1.4268).  Traders have come in near the level and taken profit.  Now, the market will be watching the correction to see if levels above give way. The first stop will be the 1.4298 level. This level corresponds with a ceiling level from Friday’s trade (see chart above).  When the price moved above this level, momentum higher intensified. The other level the market will be eyeing is at the key 100 day MA area (at 1.4335).  This level also corresponds roughly with the 38.2% retracement of the sharp move down in the NY session today (see chart above). That level comes in at 1.4331 currently. Staying below these levels, keeps the bears in charge.

Construction Spending Improves, ISM Falls Posted: 01 Aug 2011 07:00 AM PDT Construction Spending MoM:  Survey:  0.1%    Actual: 0.2%    Prior:   -0.6%  Revised:  0.3% ISM Manufacturing:   Survey: 54.5    Actual: 50.9    Prior:  55.3 July vs June 2011 Prices Paid: 59.0 vs 68.0 Production: 52.3 vs 54.5   New Orders:  49.2 vs 51.6   Backlog of Orders:  45.0 vs 49.0 Supplier Deliveries: 50.4 vs 56.3 Inventory Change:  49.3 vs 54.1 Employment:  53.5 vs 59.9 ISM Prices Paid:   Survey: 64.0  Actual: 59.0   Prior:  68.0

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Aug.1.2011 Posted: 01 Aug 2011 05:13 AM PDT Good Morning: With no extra time to spare-Congressional leaders and the White House have agreed in principle to a new Debt-Limit deal.  Leaders will spend the day pushing this bill through their rank and file members.  The Congress expects to get this bill passed today-as the deadline is tomorrow August 2. The greenback has been soft-even after the debt-limit deal had been announced. Equity markets rallied across the board after news of a debt limit deal being reached. Dow futures are up over 150 pts, as are S&P and NASDAQ futures. Gold is lower-and Oil is up about $1/bar. It will be an interesting day-with lots of debates expected today in Washington. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

US ISM & Construction Spending Data Due at 10AM Posted: 01 Aug 2011 05:10 AM PDT

Eurozone unemployment rate (June) 9.9%; as expected. Posted: 01 Aug 2011 02:02 AM PDT

UK manufacturing PMI (July) 49.1 vs. 51.0 expected. Posted: 01 Aug 2011 01:29 AM PDT

Italian unemployment (June) 8.0% vs. 8.1% expected. Posted: 01 Aug 2011 01:02 AM PDT

Eurozone manufacturing PMI (July) 50.4; as expected. Posted: 01 Aug 2011 01:00 AM PDT

Igarashi, from the Japanese ministry if finance, says current FX situation is more USD weakness than JPY strength. Posted: 01 Aug 2011 12:47 AM PDT Concerns about US sovereign downgrade is preventing JPY from weakening rapidly. Must watch BOJ monetary policy decision at its upcoming meeting. Hopes US gov’t takes more measures to stabilize its public finances.

Italian manufacturing PMI (July) 50.1 vs. 49.0 expected. Posted: 01 Aug 2011 12:44 AM PDT Euro slightly firmer on the release.

A researcher at China’s ministry of commerce says the US debt deal will not restore confidence in treasury’s or the USD. Posted: 31 Jul 2011 11:35 PM PDT

8-1 Calender Posted: 31 Jul 2011 11:09 PM PDT

Reported Debt Ceiling Deal Reached Posted: 31 Jul 2011 06:45 PM PDT Ahead of President Obama announcing that a deal had been reached, the USD shot up against the Yen and mildly against the Swissy as  S&P futures and the Nikkei jumped over 1.5%. Sterling and to a lesser extent the Euro appreciated against the USD as some risk off trades unwound, with US treasuries also inching lower.

The Forex Week Ahead from FXDD Posted: 31 Jul 2011 06:26 PM PDT

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