Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing
• EURJPY: A techincal picture for the pair
• NY Opening Commentary:Dollar falls as risk benefits
• Sterling Gets a Boost From Better HPI
• 12-31 Economic Calendar
• EURJPY. Watching 108.40 level
• The NY Midday Forex Commentary takes a technical look at the market
• Fast break the other way in GBPUSD
• Gold could not get through $1404.
• EURUSD tests 50% of the Decembers range at 1.3276

NY Morning Forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 31 Dec 2010 07:09 AM PST The dollar continues to fall as the year moves toward the close. The EURUSD is extending above the 200 day MA and tests 1.3400. The USDJPY and USDCHF continue the move to the downside. GBPUSD surged higher in the last hour as London looks to ring in their New Year. If you want to be included in my email distribution list, simply send me an email at greg@fxdd.com and I will have you included.

EURJPY: A techincal picture for the pair Posted: 31 Dec 2010 05:20 AM PST

NY Opening Commentary:Dollar falls as risk benefits Posted: 31 Dec 2010 04:49 AM PST

Sterling Gets a Boost From Better HPI Posted: 30 Dec 2010 11:01 PM PST Sterling is trading higher following a nationwide HPI reading of 0.4%; better than the -0.2% forecast and -0.3% prior showing.

12-31 Economic Calendar Posted: 30 Dec 2010 08:58 PM PST

EURJPY. Watching 108.40 level Posted: 30 Dec 2010 09:56 AM PST The 108.40 level is the 100 hour MA and a nice floor from last week earlier this week. The price in the EURJPY is in between the Goal Posts as defined by the 100 and 200 hour MAs. Earlier the price tested the 200 hour MA, but could not muster the courage to push through. Instead traders used the level to take profit. Look for buyers with stops below 108.26-30 area. A move below this area, keeps bears fully in charge.

The NY Midday Forex Commentary takes a technical look at the market Posted: 30 Dec 2010 09:03 AM PST Volatile conditions continue as year end trading conditions dominate.  For a review of the major currency pairs, click on the following video link If you would like to subscibe to my daily email distribution list, send me an email at greg@fxdd.com

Fast break the other way in GBPUSD Posted: 30 Dec 2010 07:45 AM PST It surges higher. It plunges lower.  The GBPUSD has now made new lows after failing to stay above the 100 and 200 hour MA and running into resistance against the 1.5465 level.(see earlier post).  The price has also moved back below the 200 day MA at 1.5401.  The GBPUSD has traded above and below the key 200 day MA for 6 of the last 7 trading days.  This is indicative of a market that is coiling for a trend type move.  Looking a the daily chart below the 1.5507 level is key on the topside and has held the corrective moves.  The moves below the 200 day MA has been disappointing for the bears.  The longer the market hems and haws, the better the chance for a break.  Be aware.

Gold could not get through $1404. Posted: 30 Dec 2010 07:29 AM PST Watching $1408 resistance now.  The market should take clues from these boundaries. A move above $1408 reverses intraday bias to bullish. A move below $1404 increases the bearish bias intraday.

EURUSD tests 50% of the Decembers range at 1.3276 Posted: 30 Dec 2010 07:26 AM PST

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Pending Home Sales rebound
• GBPUSD dam breaks and surges higher
• USDJPY testing resistance. A break above 81.68 should be bullish
• Gold breaks $1408 on better Chicago PMI
• Chicago PMI surges higher.
• Follow the technical story. The Morning forex Commentary is available for viewing
• Market a bit confused on the better US data
• Initial Claims come in better at 388K
• ECB Nowotny on the wires
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.30.2010
• NY Opening Forex Technical Commentary for Dec 30th
• US Pending Home Sales due at 10:00 AM ET
• Chicago PMI index to be released at 9:45 AM ET
• US Initial Claims Data due at 8:30
• 12-30 Economic Calendar

Pending Home Sales rebound Posted: 30 Dec 2010 07:04 AM PST Come in at +3.5% MoM vs expectations of +0.8%. So the data across the board today was better than expected.

GBPUSD dam breaks and surges higher Posted: 30 Dec 2010 07:01 AM PST THE GBPUSD surged higher after breaking above the 100 hour MA at the 1.5433 level and the 200 hour MA at the 1.5447 level. Staying above these levels should keep the upward bias in tact for the pair. Next resistance at the 1.5465-69 (100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart and 50% of the days range. )

USDJPY testing resistance. A break above 81.68 should be bullish Posted: 30 Dec 2010 06:58 AM PST The USDJPY is testing intraday channel resistance at 81.68. A break above should lead to higher prices. The 81.94 is the next target.

Gold breaks $1408 on better Chicago PMI Posted: 30 Dec 2010 06:52 AM PST A break below 1404 is needed to confirm downside

Chicago PMI surges higher. Posted: 30 Dec 2010 06:47 AM PST Rises to 68.6 vs expectations of 61. Prices paid 78.2 vs 70.7 last month Production 74.0 vs 71.3 last month New orders 73.6 vs 67.2 last monthOrder backlogs 64.6 vs 48.9 last month Inventories 60.1 vs 48.4 last month Employment 60.2 vs 56.3 last monthSupplier deliveries 64.2 vs 60.4 last month

Follow the technical story. The Morning forex Commentary is available for viewing Posted: 30 Dec 2010 06:31 AM PST

Market a bit confused on the better US data Posted: 30 Dec 2010 05:59 AM PST The dollar is a bit confused. THe better data would/should lead to a stronger dollar, weaker gold, but that is not necessarily the case in holiday trading. Gold has moved toward support on the downside, but currency pairs like the USDJPY are steady. Typicallly, you would expect a move higher in the USDJPY off the better data and flight out of the risk currencies (which includes the JPY). The EURUSD meanwhile fell, but has started to rally back higher (dollar lower). It is moving above the resistance at the 1.32765 level (50 % of the December high to low range). Holiday markets muddy the water. BE careful. Watch the technical clues. Not the fundamentals..

Initial Claims come in better at 388K Posted: 30 Dec 2010 05:30 AM PST The labor department says there no special factors. This is indicative of a better labor market. Normally it should be good for the dollar but we are seeing the USDJPY move a touch lower. The stock market might be the wild card as worries of earlier than usual Fed action might come into focus. This has in the past led to lower USDJPY but with holiday trade anything can happen today. Gold is moving lower which you would expect if the flight into the safety of the Gold, unwinds. This is the lowest level since July 2008

ECB Nowotny on the wires Posted: 30 Dec 2010 05:08 AM PST Challenges for some EURO area countries Price stability remains the focus for ECB

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.30.2010 Posted: 30 Dec 2010 05:08 AM PST Good Morning: The USD was a touch lower in overnight trading.  With major currencies having tight monetary policy, the emerging market currencies seem to be the biggest gainers in the marketplace.  The Fed has reiterated their near zero interest rate policy, along with Japan.  The EU is in termoil over their sovereign debt problems, and China is still growing by leaps and bounds.  All these components will be the center piece of 2011’s foreign exchange markets. Asian equity markets were mixed, and European equity markets were lower.  US Futures are lower at this time. Oil:$90.74                                                Gold:$ 1412.30 | TIME FOR EST. PRIOR 8:30A.M. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS 25-Dec 415K 420K 8:30A.M. CONTINUING CLAIMS 18-Dec 4084K 4064K 9:45A.M. CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGER      DEC.        61.O 62.5O 10:00A.M. PENDING HOME SALES MoM NOV. 0.80% 10.40% 10:00A.M. PENDING HOME SALES YoY NOV. -22.40% HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

NY Opening Forex Technical Commentary for Dec 30th Posted: 30 Dec 2010 04:55 AM PST

US Pending Home Sales due at 10:00 AM ET Posted: 30 Dec 2010 04:37 AM PST

Chicago PMI index to be released at 9:45 AM ET Posted: 30 Dec 2010 04:35 AM PST

US Initial Claims Data due at 8:30 Posted: 30 Dec 2010 04:33 AM PST

12-30 Economic Calendar Posted: 29 Dec 2010 08:58 PM PST

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• USDJPY moves below the 81.98 level
• GBPUSD tests 100 hour MA at 1.5417
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.29.2010
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary for Dec 29th is available for viewing
• Swiss KOF Baromenter Better Than Expected
• Eurozone M3 Money Supply
• 12-29 Economic Calendar
• Rebroadcast of Dec 28th 2010 webinar
• USDJPY testing the midpoint of weeks range
• 5 year note auction not all that great
• Let’s call a spade a spade….
• The NY Midday Forex Commentary for December 28th 2010
• EURUSD tests next target after breaking 100 hour MA
• EURUSD finds support at the 100 hour MA

USDJPY moves below the 81.98 level Posted: 29 Dec 2010 06:44 AM PST This keeps the bearishness in tact for the USDJPY. Staying below 82.04 keeps the intraday bias to the downside. The 61.8% of the move up from the November low to the high comes in at 81.87. The low from yesterday came in at 81.81. A move through it targets 81.65 which was a spike low on November 12th. The pair stepping down again.

GBPUSD tests 100 hour MA at 1.5417 Posted: 29 Dec 2010 06:32 AM PST A break above is bullish for the pair and should solicit additional buying in the pair with a target being the 200 hour MA at the 1.5457 level currently.

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.29.2010 Posted: 29 Dec 2010 05:44 AM PST Good Morning: I am back in town after being stuck in the snow at my house for the past 2 days. As much as it is 2010-it is still amazing that 2 feet of snow paralyzes an entire region for days.  The markets are really quiet-as the week between Christmas and New Years is historically a quiet time-the snowstorm that hit the east coast added to the quietness, as many participants are stuck (or just decided to stay) at home. China announced an interest rate increase which was highly expected by the marketplace.  The safety of the USD and the Yen are not of as much interest to investors-as they look for higher-yielding assets as the world wide economic recovery is gaining traction.  We will await the new year to see where investors look to invest their money. Oil:$91.04                                                                Gold:$1403.10 No major data due out today. HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

The NY Opening Forex Commentary for Dec 29th is available for viewing Posted: 29 Dec 2010 05:18 AM PST

Swiss KOF Baromenter Better Than Expected Posted: 29 Dec 2010 02:33 AM PST The Swiss KOF barometer, which is a composite index based on 12 economic indicators, came in at 2.10; better than the 2.07 survey but worse than the prior showing of 2.12.

Eurozone M3 Money Supply Posted: 29 Dec 2010 01:49 AM PST The market had a limited reaction to money supply our of the Eurozone, which came in slightly better at 1.9% versus the forecast of 1.6% and prior reading of 0.9%.  Additionally, private loans came in better than expected at 2.0%.

12-29 Economic Calendar Posted: 28 Dec 2010 08:59 PM PST

Rebroadcast of Dec 28th 2010 webinar Posted: 28 Dec 2010 02:15 PM PST Rebroadcast of Dec 28th 2010 webinar >> Watch here This posting includes an audio/video/photo media file: Download Now

USDJPY testing the midpoint of weeks range Posted: 28 Dec 2010 11:36 AM PST The USDJPY has moved up to test the 50% retracement of the move down for the week. The level comes in at the 82.39.  A break above will look toward the 82.84-82.87 which is a key level from current ranges.

5 year note auction not all that great Posted: 28 Dec 2010 10:07 AM PST Bid to cover 2.61 vs 2.77 recent.  Lower demand. The EURUSD is back down after testing and holding the 100 hour MA at the 1.3136 level. The high reached 1.3134.

Let’s call a spade a spade…. Posted: 28 Dec 2010 09:39 AM PST We are seeing the EURUSD rotate back to the upside in what continues to be holiday like markets. The EURUSDs pretty aggresive move to the downside in the NY session today happened while Gold rallied higher. Data today was mixed with weak housing and consumer confidence but strong Richmond Fed Manufacturing. Oil prices are up (dollar negative usuallly). The Dow is flattish (+10). Let’s call a spade a spade…the market is in holiday mode. So when the market seems intent to trend one way, it will trend until it stops and goes the other way.  Such is how we deal with it. So the ambiguous fundamental story seems to have the market more focused on the technical picture, which started to change for the EURUSD from bullish to bearish when the 50% retracement of the December high to low range, held resistance at 1.3276. From there the bearish bias intraday saw the price move through the 1.3201 high from Dec 21 (1 in the chart above)  which contained the pairs upside until the first few hours of trading today. The next level to breach was the 1.3180-85 (2 in chart above), then the 200 hour MA and 100 hour MA at the 1.3160 and 1.3137 (3 and 4). The low was finally set at 1.3093 (5 above)  for no real apparent reason except, the shorts had enough and started to buy back. Now the price is back up looking to test the 100 hour MA at the 1.3137 level again and it would not surprise me if a move above is attempted in the NY afternoon trade. If broken, a move back up to the 200 hour MA at the 1.3160 may not be far behind. On the first look, however, look for day traders to try selling against the key level with risk limited and the hope that a move back down will materialize.

The NY Midday Forex Commentary for December 28th 2010 Posted: 28 Dec 2010 09:10 AM PST

EURUSD tests next target after breaking 100 hour MA Posted: 28 Dec 2010 08:16 AM PST The channel trend was broken yesterday and forced the EURUSD higher. Today, the price is back down testing that old trendline at 1.3103. I find that this old trendline has a tendency to be a borderline that buyers (in this case) can lean against. Resistance above now comes in a the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart above) at the 1.3137 level. There should be sellers against this level. A move above negates some of the bearish bias for the pair.

EURUSD finds support at the 100 hour MA Posted: 28 Dec 2010 07:18 AM PST The EURUSD fell back down in NY trade but found support against the 100 hour MA. The ability to stop the downside fall, gives profit takers a level to lean against with a break likely leading to lower levels. The 1.3180-85 becomes upside resistance once again for the pair.

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Richmond Fed Index Much Higher as Consumer Confidence Falls
• Consumer Confidence & Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Due at 10AM
• The NY Morning Forex Commentary for Dec 28th
• US S&P/CaseShiller Moves Lower
• EURUSD tests support area for the pair
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary_Dec 28th 2010
• US S&P CaseShiller Data at 9AM
• USD/JPY Testing Daily Support
• Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator
• 12-28 Economic Calendar
• Japan’s Noda on the newswires talks about Yen
• EURUSD holding above the 1.3224 level
• USDCHF falls on dollar selling
• GBPUSD squeezes higher as well
• $EURUSD breaks up to 38.2% retracement at 1.3224. Don’t see any news

Richmond Fed Index Much Higher as Consumer Confidence Falls Posted: 28 Dec 2010 07:04 AM PST Consumer Confidence:    Survey: 56.3     Actual: 52.5       Prior: 54.1     Revised: 54.3 Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index:      Survey: 11     Actual:  25      Prior: 9

Consumer Confidence & Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index Due at 10AM Posted: 28 Dec 2010 06:44 AM PST

The NY Morning Forex Commentary for Dec 28th Posted: 28 Dec 2010 06:44 AM PST The dollar finds profit taking strength in NY trading. Technicals turn bearish as well.

US S&P/CaseShiller Moves Lower Posted: 28 Dec 2010 06:02 AM PST S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index:      Actual: 145.32    Prior: 147.49     Revised: 147.27 S&P/CS 20 City MoM% SA:     Survey: -0.60%    Actual: -.99    Prior: -0.80%     Revised: -.96 S&P/CS Composite- 20 YoY:     Survey: -0.20%    Actual: -.80     Prior: 0.59%     Revised: .44

EURUSD tests support area for the pair Posted: 28 Dec 2010 05:18 AM PST The EURUSD had a ceiling at the 1.3201 level until earlier today. When the price broke above that level in the first few hours of the trading today, the price scooted quickly higher.  Now the pair is back down testing the support level.  The 38.2% of the weeks range is at the 1.3195 area.  A break below 1.3193 would not be welcomed and would likely indicate some additional choppy trading for the time being.  If support holds, watch the 1.3224 level above. It may be that level is the topside resistance while 1.3195 area becomes support.

The NY Opening Forex Commentary_Dec 28th 2010 Posted: 28 Dec 2010 05:09 AM PST The USDJPY fell sharply overnight. Comments from Finance Minister Noda failed to stem the selling in the pair.  The EURUSD rallied overnight, squeezing shorts in the process.  The move above the 1.3201 level and then the 1.3224 level were catalysts for the pair. USDCHF made new lows once agains but has moved above underside support. These and more are discussed in the NY Opening Forex Commentary today.

US S&P CaseShiller Data at 9AM Posted: 28 Dec 2010 04:39 AM PST

USD/JPY Testing Daily Support Posted: 28 Dec 2010 12:57 AM PST The USD/JPY pair tested daily support again with it’s session low of 82.36. Shown below, you can see that this is the third time this level has been tested since November 10th; it also comes in just below the 38.2% retracement line on the move from September 16th highs to November 1st lows. A close below this level may be a bearish signal for the pair in which case we may look to 81.58 as the next daily downside target. If support holds, 83.08 is the next significant level to the topside. It should also be noted that possible resistance is show in the area of 84.37; the pair hasn’t traded above this level since October 5th.

Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator Posted: 27 Dec 2010 11:05 PM PST The CHF softened slightly after the UBS consumption indicator came in at 1.63; worse than the prior reading of 1.71.

12-28 Economic Calendar Posted: 27 Dec 2010 08:59 PM PST

Japan’s Noda on the newswires talks about Yen Posted: 27 Dec 2010 05:54 PM PST Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda on newswires saying: The Yen movement is a little one sided Will take bold action if neccesary on currency Will keep watching the market closely. He made similar comments on Friday.   The USDJPYafter rallying to 84.51 in mid December, has drifted down and is back below the 100 day MA at the 83.39 level.   The low for December came in at the 82.32.  The BOJ intervened in September 2010 at the 82.87 level may be in the mind of the Finance Minister.  With the price at 82.66 - below the intervention level - the level might be stirring memories of the line in the sand level.  SInce this is the second similar comment  since Friday, it is not scaring the market just yet.  However, one can not rule out intervention at some.  Where there is smoke, there may be fire, so be aware. PS Inflation data out of Japan argues for a weaker Yen but the bias remains bullish for the currency (bearish for the USDJPY)

EURUSD holding above the 1.3224 level Posted: 27 Dec 2010 05:25 PM PST The 38.2% retracement of the move from the Dec 14 high to the low on Dec 22 came in at 1.3224. The price correction off the high has so far held that level and keeps the bulls in charge and possibly the shorts concerned.  The next target above is at 1.3260. The 50% of the same move down comes in at 1.3276.  That would be a more signficant level for the pair.

USDCHF falls on dollar selling Posted: 27 Dec 2010 04:47 PM PST The USDCHF fell below its 100 hour MA at the 0.9576 level and through the Friday low at the 0.9552 level.  The price has rebounded but will need to stay below the 0.9576 level to keep the bears in the pair happy.  A break with momentum below the 0.9556 -61 area is also required to also satisfy the shorts in the pair (and will frighten the traders who are bulls or dip buyers). On Friday, the price fell to below the 0.9556 level but quickly rebounded.  Todays deja vu trade is fresh in the minds of traders.  Traders don’t like the same thing to happen twice to them. So it a new low is not made soon, look for buyers on the dip.

GBPUSD squeezes higher as well Posted: 27 Dec 2010 04:30 PM PST The high from Friday came in at 1.5474 and approached the next bullish hurdle at the 200 hour MA at the 1.5491 level (high reached 1.5486). I would expect sellers against the level by profit takers, but would also expect and warn that a break of it should ignite additional buyers. Last weeks high came in at 1.5575. Before that level comes the 1.5567 level which is the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the December 14th high to the low on December 21st (see chart below). Watch 1.5456 level as support.  If the price falls through this level, it would disappoint the GBPUSD bulls and likely lead to some selling.

$EURUSD breaks up to 38.2% retracement at 1.3224. Don’t see any news Posted: 27 Dec 2010 04:18 PM PST Stops triggered above the 1.3201 high from last week and straight up to the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the Dec 14th high to the low. That level comes in at 1.3224. Be wary of some profit taking at the level, but watch for buyers on dips toward 1.3201. If momentum can be sustained, there is not much resistance until 1.3256-60 area, then 1.3280-83

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Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Stocks are opening lower
• EURUSD in between “Goal Posts” Awaits a break.
• GBPUSD tests 200 day MA at 1.5393 level. Key level today
• NY Opening Forex Commentary from snowy NY City

Stocks are opening lower Posted: 27 Dec 2010 06:31 AM PST Dow down about 36 points S&P down 4 Nasdaq down about 9.1 points

EURUSD in between “Goal Posts” Awaits a break. Posted: 27 Dec 2010 06:13 AM PST On the hourly chart, the EURUSD is trading in between what I term the “Goal Posts” as defined by the 100 and 200 hour MA. The 100 hour MA is at the 1.3120 level. The 200 hour MA is at the 1.3170 level currently. With the price in between the two, the bias is bullish but the lack of upward momentum has the bulls on the defensive. Look for buyers on dips against the 100 hour MA at 1.3120, with stops on a move below. If the 200 hour MA is broken the 1.3080-86 level is the next target levels to break through.  A move above these levels, however, should be positive for the pair and lead to further upward momentum.  Other key technical levels comes in at the 100 day MA which is at the 1.3087 level today. The 50% retracement of the move up from the June 2010 low at 1.1876 to the high at 1.4281 made in early November comes in at 1.3079. This area is key support with a break likely to solicit additional selling pressure (see chart below).

GBPUSD tests 200 day MA at 1.5393 level. Key level today Posted: 27 Dec 2010 05:44 AM PST

NY Opening Forex Commentary from snowy NY City Posted: 27 Dec 2010 05:11 AM PST   Boxing Day is being observed in England and Canada today, and blizzard conditions in NY have the market on the defensive. The Peoples Bank of China raised rates to slow inflation over the weekend and this should have a negative effect on currencies like the AUD (weaker).  Other pairs have the technical levels to eye this morning. The NY Opening Commentary will outline the key technical levels as we enter the NY trading session.

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