Saturday, December 11, 2010

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Forex Market Updates & Commentary

Link to Forex News and Commentary by FXDD

USDJPY: Weekend Technical Commentary

Posted: 10 Dec 2010 01:18 PM PST

GBPUSD: Weekend Technical Update

Posted: 10 Dec 2010 01:05 PM PST

EURUSD:Weekend Technical Review

Posted: 10 Dec 2010 12:18 PM PST

Live Forex Trading Education Tuesday Dec 14th

Posted: 10 Dec 2010 12:00 PM PST

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USDCAD jaws are closing

Posted: 10 Dec 2010 09:58 AM PST

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The “jaws” off the hourly chart in the USDCAD are closing as the price action gets more narrow (it looks like a dinosaur..maybe a T-rex?).   The non-trending nature of the last three days of trading suggest a likely trend type move is on the horizon.  The problem is the weekend festivities get in the way with China news and potential rate hike implications increasing weekend risk.  Nevertheless, a move below the 100 hour MA at the 1.0088 level should signal a more bearish bias. While a move above the 200 hour MA would be more bullish. 

When the price and moving averages converge like they are, it suggests the market is unsure of the direction for the pair.  There are counterbalancing crosswinds for the pair. Oil prices are up which keeps the pair closer to the the parity level.  Unemployment rate fell to 7.6% last month (from 7.9%) .  However, the GDP came in weaker at 1% for the 3rd quarter versus 1.5% expectations, and the BOC is concerned about weakening exports due to the strong CAD$, and global risks.    Today, the Trade surplus with the US dropped to the lowest level since September 1992 suggesting a competitive disadvantage is developing (would support a weaker CAD$). This is keeping the downside in check.

Much will likely depend on weekend moves.  A hike in rates by China may lead to a move out of the commodities/risk. This might benefit the USDCAD.  No change and the move may be back into the risk pairs.

GBPUSD tests 100 bar MA as London goes home

Posted: 10 Dec 2010 09:01 AM PST

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The 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart comes in at the 1.5808 level. The high has reached 1.5805. London is on their way home. The midpoint of the day comes in at the 1.5803 level.

EURUSD: Still rangebound

Posted: 10 Dec 2010 08:29 AM PST

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The EURUSD extended the downside trading range, falling to the target at the 1.3180 level. That level corrresponded with the low level from Wednesday. The inability to extend to the next target (the low for the week at 1.3164) led to shorts covering.

Now, the price has moved up to the 100 bar MA on the 5 minute chart currently at the 1.3232 level. Sellers have reentered at the level with risk defined against the intraday moving average. The London/Europe close for the week could cause some additional volatility. A move above the 1.3232 level will look to target 1.3250. Staying below the 1.3232 level will look toward the familiar 1.3194 and 1.3180 levels once again.

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Dollar increases as better data, steady stocks and lower gold

Posted: 10 Dec 2010 07:19 AM PST

The dollar has been rising, helped by a steady stock market and lower gold. The better than expected US data today (Trade will increase 4th quarter GDP and Michigan consumer confidenece was also better) has not seen that flight into stocks and the risk currency pairs. So as a result, the dollar has been rising with the better data. The narrow trading ranges coming into NY - especially in the EURUSD - has also contributed to a range extension. Finally, the risk of a China rate hike this weekend may also be contributing to a flight out of risk and into the dollar.

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