Forex Market Updates & Commentary

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• Gold fall, prompts dollar buying
• Philadelphia Fed Index Rises
• Forex Morning Report- Dec 16
• Gold moving lower
• EURUSD still contained in narrow range with a slight bullish bias
• Housing Starts & Jobless Claims Improve, Building Permits and Account Balance Lower
• Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.16.2010
• USDCHF moves above key 0.9694
• The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing:
• 8:30 AM Economic Data to include: Housing Starts, Building Permits, Jobless Claims & Current Account Balance
• EURUSD narrow trading range suggests extension in NY session
• EZ CPI
• UK Retail Sales
• EZ Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI
• German Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI mixed

Gold fall, prompts dollar buying Posted: 16 Dec 2010 07:13 AM PST Gold took another step to the downside and the dollar followed higher. The EURUSD followed lower ($higher) and the pair is now moving through the lows for the day at 1.3207.  The move below the 100 and 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart gave the clue that the upside try, had run out of steam.  Now with the price below the old low at 1.3207, look for further downside pressure for the pair.  Risk is a move above 1.3216..

Philadelphia Fed Index Rises Posted: 16 Dec 2010 07:04 AM PST Philadelphia Fed:   Survey: 15.0    Actual: 24.3   Prior:22.5 Future Index:  50.5 vs. 49.0 Employment Index: 5.1 vs. 13.3 Prices Paid Index: 51.2 vs. 34.0 New Orders Index: 14.6 vs. 10.4 Prices Paid Index: 10.7 vs. -2.1

Forex Morning Report- Dec 16 Posted: 16 Dec 2010 06:51 AM PST

Gold moving lower Posted: 16 Dec 2010 06:00 AM PST The 50% retracement of the move up from the most recent low on November 16th to the high. Staying below the 1380.30 level should keep the pressure on the pair. The move lower has also breached the trendline off the daily chart (see below). This level was broken at the 1376 level and increases the bearish bias for gold.

EURUSD still contained in narrow range with a slight bullish bias Posted: 16 Dec 2010 05:45 AM PST The EURUSD fell to test the 200 bar MA on the 5 minute chart (confirming moving average) but quickly bounced. On the topside, the price tested the highs for the day earlier in the NY session and failed there. So there remains a little bit of something for the bulls and the bears today. I still need to respect the MAs on the chart above until proven otherwise. The 100 bar MA is at 1.3233. The 200 bar MA is at 1.3226. This is the risk. A move above 1.3265 should attract more momentum buying and the extension that I am anticipating. I still expect an extension of the trading range at some point today. It seems bulls and bears are balanced (the narrow range defines that). So focus on the clues like higher lows, trendlines and MAs need to be followed. The break (assuming it comes) may be after some wiggles and waggles, but be aware and if luck is on your side, the market will break in your direction. If not right, a small loss is likely the downside.

Housing Starts & Jobless Claims Improve, Building Permits and Account Balance Lower Posted: 16 Dec 2010 05:34 AM PST Housing Starts:    Survey: 550K    Actual: 555K    Prior: 519K    Revised: 534K Housing Starts (MoM)%:    Survey: 6.0%    Actual: 3.9%    Prior: -11.7%    Revised: -11.1 Building Permits:    Survey: 560K    Actual: 530K    Prior: 550K    Revised: 552K Building Permits (MoM)%:    Survey: 1.5%    Actual: -4.0%    Prior: 0.5%    Revised: 0.9% Current Account Balance:  Survey: -126.0B   Actual: -127.2B    Prior: -123.3B   Revised: -123.2B Jobless Claims:  Survey: 425K    Actual: 420K   Prior: 421K    Revised:  423K    Continuing Claims:  Survey: 4115K    Actual:  4135K    Prior: 4086K   Revised: 4113K

Bobbys Corner-Open Market-Dec.16.2010 Posted: 16 Dec 2010 05:26 AM PST Good Morning: EU leaders start a 2 day meeting today in Brussels to discuss the best course of action regarding containing the sovereign debt crisis that has plaged the EU and the Euro.  Market participants are looking for a permanent crisis mechanism to protect the financial markets and to keep the debt crisis in the EU contained. Portuguese, Greek, and Spanish bonds dropped, with the spread versus German bonds rising again. With Spain being much larger than the other PIIGS countries, investors will be looking at Spain to see if the mechanisms within the EU to safeguard the financial system are actually able to protect against any future debt crisis within the region. Asian and European equity markets were mixed, and US Futres are slightly higher at thi time. Oil:$88.23                                                    Gold:$1379.80  TIME FOR EST. PRIOR   REVISED 8:30A.M. HOUSING STARTS NOV. 550K 519K 8:30A.M. HOUSING STARTS MoM      NOV. 6.00% -11.7% 8:30A.M. BUILDING PERMITS NOV.  560K 550K      552K 8:30A.M. BUILDING PERMITS MoM NOV. 1.50% 0.50% 0.90% 8:30A.M. CURRENT ACCT. BALANCE  3Q -$126.0B -$123.3B 8:30A.M. INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS 11-Dec 425K     421K 8:30A.M. CONTINUING CLAIMS 4-Dec      4110K 4086K 10:00A.M. PHILADELPHIA FED  DEC. 15.O      22.5O   HAVE A GREAT DAY & GOOD LUCK

USDCHF moves above key 0.9694 Posted: 16 Dec 2010 05:21 AM PST

The NY Opening Forex Commentary is available for viewing: Posted: 16 Dec 2010 04:44 AM PST

8:30 AM Economic Data to include: Housing Starts, Building Permits, Jobless Claims & Current Account Balance Posted: 16 Dec 2010 04:26 AM PST

EURUSD narrow trading range suggests extension in NY session Posted: 16 Dec 2010 03:43 AM PST With the low to high trading range at 58 pips, it is likely the range will be extended today in the NY session.  The price is currently above the converged 100 and 200 bar MA which are converged at the 1.3225 level.  There is floor support at the 1.3214 and 1.3206. On the topside, the price needs to confirm the upside bias with a move through the 1.3252 level, then the high for the day.  The next target would be the 38.2% retracement (see chart) of the sharp move down from yesterday at the 1.3274.  A move above that level keeps the corrective/bullish phase in place. A normal range is about 120 pips.  This would target on the upside 1.3326. If the price moves below the 100 and 200 bar MA and takes out the low, the target would extend to the 1.3140 area.

EZ CPI Posted: 16 Dec 2010 02:03 AM PST EZ CPI y/y came in at 1.9%, inline with estimates. Core CPI y/y came in at 1.1%, weaker than the 1.2% expected. Eur/Usd has come off 15 points since release, presently trading at 1.3228.

UK Retail Sales Posted: 16 Dec 2010 01:34 AM PST UK Retail Sales m/m came in at 0.3%, weaker than the 0.5% expected. Gbp/Usd is just off session high of 1.5599.

EZ Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI Posted: 16 Dec 2010 01:16 AM PST Eurozone Flash Manufacturing  PMI came in at 56.8, stronger than the 55.3 expected. Services PMI came in at 53.7, weaker than the 55.3 expected. Mixed data again out of Europe with Eur/Usd not feeling much effect, trading at 1.3253.

German Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI mixed Posted: 16 Dec 2010 12:46 AM PST German Flash Manufacturing came in at 60.9, stronger than the 58.2 estimate. Services PMI came in at 58.3, weaker than the 59.1 estimate. Eur/Usd did make a move to a new session high upon release trading up to 1.3249. The pair trades just shy of this level at 1.3242.

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